Sugar Cane Resources for Economic Development a Case Study in .ppt by longze569

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									        Global and Regional Bio-ethanol Markets
   sugarcane and sweet sorghum in southern Africa
              AU/UNIDO/Brazil Seminar
      Sustainable Biofuels Development in Africa:
             Opportunities and Challenges
                     31 July 2007

Francis X. Johnson, Research Fellow, Energy and Climate
             Stockholm Environment Institute

Cane Resources Network for Southern Africa (CARENSA)

               www.carensa.net

                                             EUROPEAN COMMISSION
                                            Research Directorate-General
                   Overview of Presentation
   Energy-Environment-Development Driving Forces
   North-South-South collaboration & International Trade
   SSA has highest bioenergy potential among world regions
   Productive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghum
   GHG emissions
   Employment generation
   Global market shares
   Focus on southern Africa (SADC)
   Capacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scale
   Geographic Information Systems Analysis – potential
   Scenarios for future production and blending
   Export potential
   CARENSA: an International Network/Partnership
Multi-product, multi-sector strategies
to promote sustainable development
and enhance global competitiveness
                         Sustainable
                        Development
                          Strategies

                         Cogeneration
 Environmental and                           Techno-economic
   Social Impacts                                 options
                       Bio-       Biofuels
                     services

                         Global
                      Competitiveness
Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for bio-
energy development and North-South-South Collaboration
   Rural development - creation of sustainable livelihoods
   Relieving resource pressures and stresses
   Socioeconomics of urbanisation and migration
   Energy security: local – regional – global
   Rural health issues - indoor air
   Urban health issues – lead, air quality
   future competitiveness of agro-industries
   Kyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon credits
   Developing countries looking for foreign investment through
    Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
   Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile market
   Reduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification
    Bio-energy production potential in 2050 for different scenarios

                                                                                                              136
                                                                                                        111
                                                                                                   68
                                                                          32 40                                                   221
                                                                     14                        2
                                                                 0                                                             178
                                       137                                                       CIS &
                                 111                            W.Europe
                                                                                  1 8 14 17    Baltic States                  21
                                 34                                  32 39                                               10              0 0 0 0
                             4                                1 2                 E.Europe
                                                        315   Near East &                410                             East Asia       Japan
                            North America
                                                      253     North Africa             331                    21        24               Ameri
                                                                                                        14         21
                                                178
                                                                                                        South Asia                            125
                                                                                                                                        100
                                              46                                   149
                                                                                                                                      60
                                                                                  41                                                15
                                              Caribean &                                                                            Oceania
    harves ting res idues                    Latin America                    sub-Saharan                                           America
    bioenergy crops                                                              Africa                                 Potential in Oceania
                                                                                                                        is 4-6 times projected
                  125                                                                                                   primary energy use
         100
      Source: E. Smeets, A. Faaij, I. Lewandowski – March 2004
    60
      A quickscan of global bio-energy potentials to 2050: analysis of the regional availability of biomass resources
4
      for export in relation to underlying factors, Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University, NWS-E-2004-109.
     Comparison of biofuel yields
                                       Biofuel     Energy
            Seed yield   Crop yield
  Crop                                   yield      yield
              (t/ha)       (t/ha)
                                      (litre/ha)   (GJ/ha)
Sugarcane
                            100         7500       157.5
  (juice)
 Palm oil     9800          70          3000       105.0
 Sweet
                            60          4200        88.2
sorghum
  Maize                      7          2500        52.5
Jatropha       740                      700         24.5
Soybean        480                      500         17.5
GHG Emissions Impacts of Biofuels
   Well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions
    from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel

  0%
 -20%
 -40%
 -60%
 -80%
-100%
-120%
           Ethanol     Ethanol    Ethanol        Ethanol     Biodiesel
        from grains, from sugar from sugar        from          from
            US/EU     beets, EU cane, Brazil    cellulosic   rapeseed,
                                               feedstocks        EU
                        Employment Generation and
                           Sustainable Livelihoods
                         (calculations are for Brazil)
                                                                         Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD)
      Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1)

                                                                      Chemical
     Ethanol                                      152

                                                                     Metallurgy
          Oil       1
                                                                  Capital goods
Hydroelectric       3
                                                                     Consumer
                                                                      goods
        Coal        4
                                                                        Ethanol

                0        50         100         150         200
                                                                                  0        50        100        150        200       250




                                 Source: Goldemberg, Jose (2002)
        The case of Sugar Cane Resources

                                       Sugar Cane


Sugar/solids               Molasses/juice                    Crop Residues


         Raw Sugar                      Industrial Uses                   Steam & Electricity


         Refined Sugar               Commercial Products                    Fuel Briquettes


         Fertilizers                        Ethanol                       Agricultural Products


         Industrial Uses                              Stillage             Industrial Products


                                                             Fertilizer


                                                             Methane
Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004

                               SADC
                                3%
             N&C America
                13%
                                              Brazil
                                              29%


          ASEAN
           10%




          Other SA                                Pacific
            10%                                    4%




                  Other Asia
                                      India
                     10%
                                      21%
                          Ethanol Production
Total Ethanol production by country or region (billion litres)
                                                              Global    Global    Annual
                                                              Share,    Share, Average
                   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005               2000      2005     change
Brazil               10.6 11.5 12.6 14.7 14.7 16.1                33%        34%       8.6%
U.S.A.                7.6   8.1   9.6 12.1 14.3 16.2              24%        34%     16.4%
other Americas        1.0   1.0   1.0    1.0     1.0    1.1        3%         2%       0.8%
EU                    2.4   2.6   2.5    2.5     2.5    2.7        8%         6%       2.5%
other Europé          3.7   4.0   4.0    4.0     4.0    4.2       12%         9%       2.6%
Africa                0.5   0.5   0.5    0.5     0.6    0.6        2%         1%       3.6%
China                 3.0   3.1   3.2    3.4     3.7    3.8        9%         8%       5.1%
India                 1.7   1.8   1.8    1.9     1.7    1.7        5%         4%      -0.2%
other Asia            1.2   1.2   1.2    1.4     1.3    1.3        4%         3%       0.8%
World                31.7 33.7 36.5 41.5 43.6 47.6                                     8.5%
NOTE: includes both bio-ethanol and synthetic ethanol
NOTE: other Europé includes Russia and republics; other Asia includes Pacific/Oceania
Source: F.O.Licht's, 2006.
   Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending
                                                    Ethanol Production in 2030 under different scenarios
                                                        (ONLY from sugar cane and sweet sorghum)

                                              350
        Ethanol Production (billion litres)



                                              300

                                                                                                       Oceania
                                              250
                                                                                                       N&C America
                                                                                                       Other SA
                                              200
                                                                                                       Brazil
                                                                                                       Other Asia
                                              150
                                                                                                       India
                                                                                                       ASEAN
                                              100
                                                                                                       Africa

                                              50

                                               0
                                                       Ref       E1        E2       E3        E4



**10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl
**Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!
 Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade
barriers) for fuel ethanol in the medium-term (2025-2030)

  •   Brazil: net exporter
  •   U.S.: net importer
  •   Other N & S America: self-sufficient
  •   China: net importer
  •   India: self-sufficient
  •   SE Asia: net exporter
  •   EU: net importer
  •   Western Africa: self-sufficient
  •   Southern and Eastern Africa: net exporter
   Import Duties on Ethanol are High in
           Many IEA Countries
      US
 Canada

      EU
  Japan

Australia

      NZ
   Brazil

       $0.00               $0.10                $0.20   $0.30
                                US $ per litre


            Note: No duties in Japan and New Zealand
Southern African Development Community
                 (SADC)
                Land Use Summary for SADC and
                 other selected countries/regions
                    Total
Country/Region      Land          Forest Area       Agricultural Areas    Cultivated Area
                    Area
        UNITS:                           share of             share of             share of
                               Million     total    Million     total    Million     total
                  Million ha
                                ha         land      ha         land      ha         land
                                           area                 area                 area
Total SADC              964       368        38%       433        45%        53        5,5%
Brazil                  846       544        64%       264        31%        67        7,9%
China                   933       163        18%       555        59%       155      16,6%
India                   297        64        22%       181        61%       170      57,1%
United States           916       226        25%       409        45%       176      19,2%
EU-15                   313       116        37%       140        45%        85      27,0%
Shares of SADC sugarcane production

                       Swaziland   Zimbabwe
                         10%          10%
                                            Malawi
                                             5%
           Mauritius
            11%                               Others
                                               6%


         Zambia
           4%

        Tanzania
          4%

       Madagascar
          5%



                                    South Africa
                                       45%
                           Tonnes cane per hectare in 2004

       M




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                                 40
                                      60
                                           80
                                                 100
                                                       120
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                                                                   High crop productivity in some SADC countries
    Characteristics of existing sugar factories
         and potential ethanol supply
                                                                  Ethanol Production (Million litres)
        Factory characteristics and/or feedstock supply
                                                                                  from


                 Number         Avg.      Total      Avg. ann.
   Size                                                             C-          A/B           Cane
                   of         Capacity    prod.       Prod.
 Category                                                        molasses     molasses        juice
                factories      tc/hr      ktc/yr      ktc/yr


> 2 mtc/year             4         469       9244         2311          83           185          693
1-2 mtc/year             16        305      23064         1538         208           461         1730
< 1 mtc/year             20        167       8852         521           80           177          664
Total                    40        258      41159         1143         370           823         3087


Additional cane as feedstock                40085                      361           802         3006
Total potential supply                      81244                      731         1625          6093
Gasoline Equivalent                                                    512         1137          4265
Existing Factories: Ethanol Surpluses/deficits with Production from
      C-molasses only and E5 Ethanol Demand (million litres)
                         Legend
                              SLCR Pixels
                              Annual Rainfall <800mm
                              Annual Rainfall >800mm

Rainfall and Areas
suitable for
sugarcane in
Malawi,
Mozambique,
Tanzania, and
Zambia
Source: UKwZN
2005, South Africa




                                                                    0
                                                                         -
                                                                        200     400
                                                                         Kilometres
                                                                                      600


                     Figure 5:12: SLCR Pixels and Annual Rainfall
                       Legend
                             SLCR Areas
                             International Areas
                             National Areas (No Categories)
                             National Areas (IUCN Categorised)


Areas suitable and
available for
sugarcane in
Malawi,
Mozambique,
Tanzania, and
Zambia
Source: UKwZN
2005, South Africa




                                                                                   0
                                                                                       -
                                                                                       200    400
                                                                                       Kilometres
                                                                                                    600


                     Figure 5.3: Distribution of Protected Areas and SLCR Pixels
Land suitability for
high input levels:
Sweet Sorghum
production in Africa
Source: FAO
     Land suitability for sweet sorghum


               Total land     Suitable Share
Country
               (1000 ha) Low-inputs High-inputs
Malawi              9408        11%          26%
Mozambique         78409        16%          28%
South Africa      121447          0%          1%
Tanzania           88359          4%         13%
Zambia             74339          8%         34%
Zimbabwe           38685          0%          3%
                        Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane

                 9000
                 8000
                 7000                                                Other SADC
                                                                     Zimbabwe
                 6000
Million litres




                                                                     Zambia
                 5000                                                Tanzania
                 4000                                                Swaziland
                                                                     South Africa
                 3000
                                                                     Mozambique
                 2000                                                Malawi
                 1000
                   0
                   05

                   07

                   09

                   11

                   13

                   15

                   17

                   19

                   21

                   23

                   25
                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20

                 20
 Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand

    Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane,
                                                                   Scenarios for internal SADC and export
            new cane, and sweet sorghum
                                                                               market demand
35000
30000                                                          35000

25000                                                          30000

20000
                                                               25000
                                                               20000
15000
10000
                                                               15000
                                                               10000
5000
                                                               5000
    0
          2005       2010        2015         2020    2025        0
                                                                       2005    2010    2015        2020       2025

   cane, existing areas     cane, new areas    sweet sorghum                  SADC demand     export market
  Potential supply for export (million litres)
                                                                                       Average
                                                                                        Annual
                        YEAR      2005       2010       2015         2020     2025     Increase
Scenarios for ethanol
production in SADC                    939       6443     13787       23650    36996      20,16%

SADC petrol demand -
projections (energy basis)           203       2475       4315         6155     8195     20,30%
         assumed % ethanol:        1%        10%        15%          20%      25%

Remaining allocation for
export market                         736       3968          9472   17495    28801      20,12%

relative to demand in other
regions (volume basis)
China                                 1%         4%            9%      15%      21%
Japan                                 1%         7%           16%      29%      48%
United States                         0%         1%            2%       3%       4%
EU15                                  0%         2%            6%      10%      16%
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
Area required for cane and sweet sorghum (kha)

                                     Average
                                       Annual
        Country/Year   2010   2025    Change
      Malawi            89    302      9%
   Mozambique          859    3484    10%
    South Africa       311    285      -1%
     Swaziland          43     42      0%
     Tanzania          212    802     10%
      Zambia           385    1555    10%
    Zimbabwe            47     60      2%
    Other SADC         208    282      3%


    SADC total         2155   6813     9%
                Some concluding thoughts
• Significant potential for global biofuels expansion in SADC and
  elsewhere to meet both development and environment goals
• Bio-ethanol export potential from southern Africa is significant
• Large scale via exports may be needed to be competitive
• North-South-South cooperation needed to develop market
• Transition from sugar support schemes to biofuels trade
• Exploit SSA comparative advantage
• Biofuels and other bio-commodities are value-added products
• Amount of land needed is small when productive crops such as
  sugarcane and sweet sorghum are used
• Subsidies for inefficient biofuels (e.g. corn in U.S.) are harmful
  to global economy AND the environment
• Need more detailed economic analysis of production and trade
• Assessment of impacts on food supply & food security needed
  Thanks to:
  • AU and UNIDO for opportunity to attend this seminar
  • EC and Sida - for financial support to CARENSA
  • Our International Partners – for their hard work
   For more info: www.carensa.net




CEEEZ
   Centre for
   Energy, Environment and
   Engineering Zambia Limited




                                 EUROPEAN COMMISSION
                                Research Directorate-General

								
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