DATA AVAILABILITY by iqbiU0h7

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									ESTIMATION OF MONTHLY NATURAL FLOWS IN A HIGHLY
DEVELOPED BASIN – the case study of Krishna

BUILDING FUTURE WATER ASSESMENTS SCENARIOS FROM MONTHLY
NATURAL FLOWS IN A HIGHLY DEVELOPED BASIN – the case study of
Krishna

ESTIMATING MONTHLY NATURAL FLOWS AND BUILDING FUTURE
WATER ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS FOR SOME PENINSULAR BASINS OF
INDIA.

- Anil D Mohile[1], B K Anand[2]


[1] Consultant, Water Resources, New Delhi. Formerly Chairman Central Water
Commission and Ex-offico, Secretary to Governement of India. Email-
anildmohile@yahoo.co.in

[2] International Water Management Institute (IWMI), New Delhi.
                                     ICID - IAH CPSP Study
Application of CPSP Model to selected basins in India –
                     Location of basins
       DATA AVAILABILITY

Monthly observed flows, at     Good
terminal site
Water development              Good
information
Monthly irrigated area and     Not so
crop information               good
Monthly reservoir levels and   Good
storages
                             Conceptual schematic for Part 1 of study

                                    Correct for Anthropogenic
                                    Changes in the Surface
                                    flow.


                                                                   Estimated time series of monthly
                                                                   Natural flows of the basin.
The Monthly time series of
Observed Flows at terminal
site of the Basin




                                    Correct for Anthropogenic
                                    Changes in the Outflows from
                                    Groundwater reservoir.
                       Conceptual Schematic for Part 2 of study



                              Likely Anthropogenic Changes in
                              the Surface flow under the future
                              scenario.


                                                                  Resultant time series of
                                                                  residual monthly flows under
The Monthly time series of                                        the future scenario.
Natural Flows of the Basin



                              Likely Anthropogenic Changes in
                              the Outflows from Groundwater
                              reservoir under the Future
                              scenario.
                           Hydrologic Concept-Natural Condition


PRECIPITATION              NATURAL ET




  LAND SURFACE AND ROOT ZONE                                      NATURAL FLOW
                                                                  OF BASIN




NATURAL DEEP PERCOLATION
(NAT URAL RECHARGE)




G W RESERVOIR


                               NATURAL GW OUT FLOW
                           Anthropogenically Modified

PRECIPITATION             NATURAL ET                       ANTHROPOGENIC                   IMPORT    EXPORT
                                                           ET (CONSUMPTION,)               S         S




                                                                                NATURAL
                                                                                FLOW OF
                                                                                BASIN
  LAND SURFACE AND ROOT ZONE




                                       SUR WITHDRAWAL

                                                 LAKE ET                                   ANTPLY CHANGED
                                                                                           FLOW AT TERMINAL
NATURAL DEEP                  SUR FACE                                                     SITE
PERCOLATION (NAT URAL         STORAGE
RECHARGE)                     CHANGES                                          ANTP
                                                                               RETURN TO
                                                                               SW
          ANTP GW WDR                           ANTP WATER USE



                        ANTP GW RETN

G W RESERVOIR

                            NATURAL GW OUT FLOW




                        ANTP CHANGE IN GW OUTFLOW
   Main Strengths or Advantages

        Could work in monthly time steps, not annual

          Instead of a single value, or average pattern, could establish a 15 yr. Time
series of natural flows

1. This could highlight the “negative flow” problem, required relook at data, and
improved credibility of the natural flow series.

    2. Encompassed annual flow variability, as required in studying the “over the year “
storages
            Could establish a computational process, which included water balances
and accounts

    We could, thus study the effects of both the developmental and environmental
actions on residual flows. Through this process, we could establish the “limits of
utilization”
Limitations of the approach


•Did not model the whole land phase of the hydrologic cycle.

• Modelled the cycle only regarding anthropogenic changes.

•Did not model sub-basins. Used a lumped approach; however averaged irrigation
 requirements from distributed ET0 and effective rainfall.
Illustration of negative natural flow computation.
Observed flow                                        200
Add for withdrawals and reservoir evaporation        1600
Subtract estimated returns                           600
Add, exports minus imports                           200
Subtract reservoirs depletion                        1500
Estimate of natural flow                             Minus 100
This is not possible. Some data is inaccurate.
How we tackled this problem?

    Allowed large Evapotranspiration through anthropogenic swamps. This
reduced the returns.

    Looked into, and reduced reservoir capacities due to likely sedimentation

    Slightly increased irrigated area estimates from Governmental sources.
       “Ultimate utilization” and “
         Limits of Utilisation”
In strict hydrologic sense, there is no Utilisation!
Is utilization to be measured as “Withdrawal” or as
“ Consumption”
Utilisation, as withdrawal depends on:
       Availability
       Limits imposed on the use (EFR, legal,etc)
       How you use ( Avoiding wasteful ET, efficiencies,etc.)
We prefer to establish the different limits under each scenario.
This is illustrated in our results.
        Krishna basin, data on Irrigated area (Million Ha)
Year   GIA-SW     GIA-GW      GIA-OS      NIA-SW     NIA-GW   NIA-OS

1989    2.75       2.44        0.34        1.59        1.66    0.26

1990    2.75       2.44        0.34        1.59        1.66    0.26

1991    2.75       2.44        0.34        1.59        1.66    0.26

1992    2.75       2.44        0.34        1.59        1.66    0.26

1993    2.61       2.32        0.30        1.54        1.61    0.25

1994    2.50       2.20        0.30        1.50        1.57    0.25

1995    2.36       2.06        0.30        1.46        1.53    0.25

1996    2.20       1.94        0.30        1.43        1.49    0.25

1997    2.05       1.87        0.26        1.42        1.45    0.25

1998    1.90       1.80        0.26        1.40        1.40    0.25

1999    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2000    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2001    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2002    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2003    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2004    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24

2005    1.76       1.73        0.29        1.40        1.37    0.24
                  Standard Crop Season and Occupancies
Crop              Cropping       Occupancy in the season of
                     Period
                                 June-Sep        Oct-Jan      Feb-May



Kharif            June to Sept         1                0               0

Rabi              Oct to Jan           0                1               0

Hot Weather       Feb to May           0                0               1

Eight Monthly     June to Jan          1                1               0

(Kharif & Rabi)

Eight Monthly     Oct to May           0                1               1

(Rabi &HW)

Eight Monthly     Feb toSept           1                0               1

(HW & Kharif)

Perennial         Perennial            1                1               1
                    Overall Irrigation Efficiency


                     For Natural     For LD,HD & WM-2   For WM,EFR-L ,
                  Flow Computation                          EFR-L & H




SW-June to Sept         0.4                0.4               0.5

SW-Oct to Jan           0.35               0.35              0.45

SW-Feb to May           0.3                0.3               0.4

GW-June to Sept         0.6                0.6               0.7

GW-Oct to Jan           0.6                0.6               0.7

GW-Feb to May           0.5                0.5               0.6
              Distribution of Excess Irrigation water


                                                For Natural Flow
S L NO              Distribution             computation, LD, HD and   For other scenario
                                                 WM-2 Scenario



  1      Towards in advertent ET caused by             0.4                    0.2
         swamps and water logging areas
         due to irrigation



  2      Towards Returns to Surface water             0.15                    0.2



  3      Towards Returns to Groundwater               0.45                    0.6
                                                    OBSERVED, ESTIMATED & ADJUSTED FLOWS-KRISHNA BASIN

                                       40000

Monthly Flows (million cubic meters)
                                       35000
                                       30000
                                       25000
                                       20000
                                       15000
                                       10000
                                        5000
                                           0
                                           Aug-87
                                       -5000         May-90        Jan-93        Oct-95          Jul-98       Apr-01       Jan-04   Oct-06


                                                      OBSERVED FLOWS        ESTIMATED NATURAL FLOWS       ADJUSTED FLOW




                                                    OBSERVED, ESTIMATED & ADJUSTED FLOWS-CAUVERY BASIN
                                       8000
                                       7000
Monthly Flows (million




                                       6000
   cubic meters)




                                       5000
                                       4000
                                       3000
                                       2000
                                       1000
                                          0
                                          Aug-87    May-90         Jan-93        Oct-95          Jul-98       Apr-01       Jan-04   Oct-06
                                                                                          YEAR

                                                              OBSERVED FLOWS     ESTIMATED NATURAL FLOWS        ADJUSTED FLOW
                                                         Observed, Estimated natural & adjusted flows-GODAVARI BASIN
                      90000
                      80000
                      70000
                      60000
Flows (Mm3)


                      50000
                      40000
                      30000
                      20000
                      10000
                              0
                                  Jan-89

                                           Jan-90

                                                    Jan-91

                                                                Jan-92

                                                                         Jan-93

                                                                                  Jan-94

                                                                                             Jan-95

                                                                                                      Jan-96

                                                                                                                  Jan-97

                                                                                                                              Jan-98

                                                                                                                                       Jan-99

                                                                                                                                                   Jan-00

                                                                                                                                                            Jan-01

                                                                                                                                                                       Jan-02

                                                                                                                                                                                Jan-03
                 -10000

                                                                                                           YEAR


                                                    OBSERVED FLOWS                             ESTIMATED NATURAL FLOWS                                      ADJUSTED FLOW

                                                OBSERVED, ESTIMATED & ADJUSTED FLOWS-NARMADA BASIN
                            30000

                            25000

                            20000
              Flows (MCM)




                            15000

                            10000

                             5000

                                0
                                Aug-87              May-90                  Jan-93               Oct-95                    Jul-98               Apr-01               Jan-04              Oct-06
                            -5000
                                                                                                               YEAR

                                                             OBSERVED FLOWS                ESTIMATED NATURAL FLOWS                     ADJUSTED FLOW
    PART-2


SCENARIO BUILDING
                    Assumptions regarding Population-2025

Basin                                Assumed Population-2025 ( Millions)

                             Urban                  Rural                  Total




Brahmani-Baitarni             4.0                    19.5                  23.4



Cauvery                       23.5                   14.8                  38.3

Godavari                      57.1                   47.4                  104.5

Krishna                       46.7                   55.0                  101.7

Mahanadi                      11.0                   24.7                  35.7

Narmada                       10.4                   14.2                  24.6
           Live capacities-Present and Projected ( Billion Cubic Metre)

Basin          Total Present Live     Projected 2025 Live capacity, for HD,WM, WM-
                   Capacity-2002                    2,EFRL and EFR-L&H



                                     Total     Major & Medium            Minor




Brahmani-               4.8          8.7              7.9                 0.8
   Baitarni

Cauvery                12.4          15.1            12.6                 2.4

Godavari               24.3          38.3            33.4                 4.9

Krishna                42.5          53.2            48.6                 4.7

Mahanadi                9.3          28.3            26.3                 2.0

Narmada*               10.3          28.2            26.9                 1.2
                                                     Part-2 Studies
Abbreviation   Does the scenario include?

               Inter-basin   Incr. Stor     Reduced anthr.   Increased   Large use of   Recircu-   EFR          EFR
               Transfers     Cap.               Swamps       irr. Eff.       drips      lation     (Low flow)   (FLOODS)
               Beyond                                                                   in D&I
               existing


BaU-LD         N             Y (low)        N                N           N              N          N            N
Bau-HD         N             Y              N                N           N              N          N            N
HD-WM1         N             Y              Y                Y           Y              Y          N            N
HD-WM2         N             Y              Y                N           Y              Y          N            N
HD-WM-         N             Y              Y                Y           Y              Y          Y            N
   EFRL
HD-WM-         N             Y              Y                Y           Y              Y          Y            Y
   EFR
HD-WM-         Y             Y              Y                Y           Y              Y          Y            Y
   EFR-
   BT-P
HD-WM-         Y             Y              Y                Y           Y              Y          Y            Y
   EFR-
   BT-
   P&H*

        * Not attempted, as yet
             Assumed Imports and Exports (Annual, BCM, by 2025)

Without considering the perspective peninsular and Himalayan water transfers plan.


      Basin                     Imports               Exports

      Brahmani-Baitarni         0.0                   0.0



      Cauvery                   0.0                   0.0

      Godavari                  0.0                   4.5

      Krishna                   2.3                   12.2

      Mahanadi                  2.2                   0.0

      Narmada                   0.0                   11.0
                               Assumed
   Additional ET Requirements, above effective rainfall, to be met from
                        Irrigation (millimetre)
                                 Surface Irrigation                    GW Irrigation




 Basin      Scenario     Jun-Sep      Oct-Jan   Feb-May     June-Sep      Oct-Jan      Feb-May




Krishna   BaU-LD,          120          300           525     120           270          450
          HD& WM-2

          Other            120          285           498     108           229          382
             Scenarios


Narmada   BaU-LD,          120          380           650     120           370          620
          HD& WM-2

          Other            120          360           620     120           340          580
             Scenarios
Basin       Avg      Avg         Estimated Limits of Utilisation (Billion cubic metre/year)
            annual   annual
            observ   Estimated                             ( 2025)
            ed       Nat Flow                             BaU-HD                             EFRL&H
            flow



                                 Imp             As          As          As         As          As        As
                                 assu          withdr     'Inbasin   'Inbasin    withdrwl    'Inbasi   'Inbasin'
                                 med    Exp       wl          `       ' useful    for 'in-      n        useful
                                        assu   for 'in-    Consm      consm       basin'      Cons     consmpt
                                        med    basin'        pt          pt         use        mpt
                                                 use


Brahmani-    31.0      36.9      0.0    0.0     26.8       18.3       11.4        27.5        17.7       14.2
Baitarni


Cauvery      14.9      25.1      0.0    0.0     36.7       25.3       15.0        37.0        23.7       18.2


Godavari     80.3      120.9     0.0    4.5    101.4       72.2       45.7        91.3        64.4       39.3


Krishna      19.9      74.0      2.3    12.2    65.5       52.5       27.5        48.4        40.0       25.0
Mahanadi     58.3      73.9      2.2    0.0     67.2       46.4       28.4        68.5        44.6       35.3


Narmada      34.6      46.7      0.0    11.0    34.3       25.7       16.1        27.7        20.4       15.5
Basin          Limits of Possible Irrigation areas, in different scenarios (GIA In Million Ha)

               Present       BaU-LD         Bau-HD        WM        WM-2       EFR-LOW           EFR-L & H



Brahmani-         1.51           3.03           4.09        5.91      4.92           5.68             5.68
    Baitarni
Cauvery           2.54           4.16           4.16        6.11      5.07           5.98             5.59
Godavari          6.39          10.44          12.34       13.92      12.62         13.66            12.34
Krishna           4.15           5.63           5.87        7.40      6.88           5.99             5.30
Mahanadi          2.73           5.32           8.12       11.20      10.10         11.37            11.05
Narmada*          2.13           3.62           3.65        5.25      4.95           5.02             3.83
Basin          Limits of Possible Irrigation areas, in different scenarios (NIA In Million Ha)
                 Present       BaU-LD         Bau-HD        WM        WM-2        EFR-LOW          EFR-L & H



Brahmani-         1.27           2.53           3.42        4.93      4.11           4.74             4.74
    Baitarni

Cauvery           2.27           3.64           3.64        5.31      4.40           5.19             4.85
Godavari          5.35           8.70          10.53       11.75      10.48         11.47            10.56
Krishna           3.31           4.65           4.85        6.12      5.68           4.95             3.98
Mahanadi          2.46           4.76           7.36       10.26      9.30          10.56            10.32
Narmada*          1.94           3.28           3.31        4.76      4.49           4.55             3.47
                            Max Possible GIA in different scenario (2025)
                    16.00
                    14.00
Area (Million ha)




                    12.00
                    10.00
                     8.00
                     6.00
                     4.00
                     2.00
                     0.00
                             Present BaU-LD Bau-HD      WM     WM-2    EFR-      EFR-L &
                                                                       LOW         H

                                Brahmani-Baitarni   Cauvery           Godavari
                                Krishna             Mahanadi          Narmada*
                           Limits of Possible Irrigation areas, in diff scenarios (GIA,MHa) as% of WM Scenario
               120

               100

Area % of WM   80

               60
               40

               20

                0
                        Present       BaU-LD          Bau-HD            WM             WM-2         EFR-LOW EFR-L & H

                      Brahmani-Baitarni        Cauvery           Scenarios
                                                              Godavari  Krishna               Mahanadi         Narmada*


                           Limits of Possible Irrigation areas, in different scenarios (NIA In Million Ha),as % of WM Scenario

               120
               100
Area % of WM




                80
                60
                40
                20
                  0
                        Present BaU-LD Bau-HD                            WM            WM-2            EFR-         EFR-L &
                                                                               Scenarios
                                                                                                       LOW            H
                Brahmani-Baitarni          Cauvery          Godavari           Krishna         Mahanadi            Narmada*
                         Composition of Estimated Antp ET (2025).
          80.0
          70.0
          60.0
ET(Bm3)




          50.0
          40.0
          30.0
          20.0
          10.0
           0.0
                   B&B            Cauvery     Godavari      Krishna          Mahanadi         Narmada
                 Res Evap (M&M)                        Basins
                                   Res Evp (Minor-tanks) Swamp ET     Irrigation   Domestic   Industrial
                            NAT AND ESTIMATED RES FLOWS AT CRITICAL POINT, 2025, (EFR-L&H)
                                                  KRISHNA BASIN
      40000


   MONTHLY FLOWS (Million
      35000
      30000
      25000
      20000
          metre
      15000 )
      10000
       5000
          0
  Jan-89
                             Jan-90
                                      Jan-91
                                               Jan-92
                                                        Jan-93
                                                                 Jan-94
                                                                          Jan-95
                                                                                   Jan-96
                                                                                            Jan-97
                                                                                                     Jan-98
                                                                                                              Jan-99
                                                                                                                       Jan-00
                                                                                                                                Jan-01
                                                                                                                                         Jan-02
                                                                                                                                                  Jan-03
                             NATURAL FLOWS                           Residual Flows at critical point (Vijaywada downstream)

                                  NAT AND ESTIMATED RESIDUAL FLOWS AT CRITICAL POINT 2025 (EFR-L&H)
                                                          -NARMADA BASIN
                30000
Monthly FLOWS
 (Million m3)




                25000
                20000
                15000
                10000
                 5000
                    0
                Ja 9

                Ja 0

                Ja 1

                Ja 2

                Ja 3

                Ja 4

                Ja 5

                Ja 6

                Ja 7

                Ja 8

                Ja 9

                Ja 0

                Ja 1

                Ja 2
                     03
                     8

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     9

                     0

                     0

                     0
                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-

                  n-
                Ja




                                      NATURAL FLOWS                                YEAR
                                                                      Residual Flows at critical point (downstream Sardar Sarovar)
                       Estimated Residual Flows ( Average of Non-monsoon-Oct-May, BM3)

Basin          Natural Flows     Observed    BaU-LD   Bau-HD   WM    WM-2    EFR-LOW      EFR-L & H



Brahmani-             11             11        4        4       4       4        4            4
    Baitarni
Cauvery               15             6         2        2       2       2        2            2
Godavari              31             18        9        9       8       9        9            9
Krishna               29             10        5        4       5       4        6            6
Mahanadi              21             14        8        7       7       6        7            6
Narmada*              10             8         2        2       2       2        3            3
Basin                      Estimated Residual Flows ( Average of Monsoon-june-sept,BM3)

Basin           Natural Flows     Observed   BaU-LD   Bau-HD   WM     WM-2   EFR-LOW      EFR-L & H



Brahmani-             26             20        18       14      14     14       14           18
    Baitarni
Cauvery               13             6         1        1       1       1        1            2
Godavari              90             62        42       34      35     33       35           42

Krishna               45             9         11       10      11     11       17           20

Mahanadi              53             44        34       34      34     24       24           26

Narmada*              36             26        8        8       8       7        8           13
                                               Effect of Development on the Non Monsoon flows
                   35
                   30
    Flows (BM3)
                   25
                   20
                   15
                   10
                       5
                       0
                             Natural      Observed         BaU-LD       Bau-HD         WM             WM-2        EFR-LOW    EFR-L & H
                             Flows                                  Scenarios

                                       Brahmani-Baitarni      Cauvery       Godavari        Krishna      Mahanadi        Narmada*



          100
                                 Effect of Development on the Monsoon Flows
                  90
                  80
                  70
Flows (BM3)




                  60
                  50
                  40
                  30
                  20
                  10
                   0
                            Natural      Observed      BaU-LD          Bau-HD          WM             WM -2       EFR-LOW    EFR-L & H
                            Flows
                                                                           Scenarios

                           Brahmani-Baitarni          Cauvery           Godavari        Krishna               Mahanadi      Narmada*
                    Issues for discussion

Can we obtain more data about irrigated areas?
Can the irrigated areas be underestimated in Governmental figures?
Can we use the “Limits of Utilisation” approach?

• Is the water assessment model sufficiently detailed and simple? Do we
need to adopt a more complicated hydrologic model, which models the
entire land phase, and depicts effects of land use changes on hydrology?
• The large evaporation through swamps has been assumed by NCIWRD
as also in the present studies. Is this depicting the true Picture?
• Is the “Scenario Building” approach a better planning and decision tool
as compared to development of single plan”.
THANK YOU

								
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