74th IASC World Congress 2005

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74th IASC World Congress 2005 Powered By Docstoc
					          Presentation on

     India’s General Economy
      Agriculture Sector and
Overview of Indian Oilseeds Complex
                  By
           Dr. B. V. Mehta
      Executive Director, SEA
                  At
 CLFMA’s National Symposium on
  Challenges to Profitable-Growth
        in Livestock Sector
     12th Sept. 2009, Lonavala        1
           Presentation Sequence

* Indian General Economy

* Agricultural Economy

* Oilseed Sector

* Indian Demand-Supply of Vegetable Oils

* Oilmeals Domestic Consumption & Export

* Current Kharif Oilseed Scenario


                                           2
          Indian Macro-economic Overview
• India – one of the growing significant economy inspite
  of recession.

• Strong Macro-economic fundamentals.

• GDP Value – One Trillion

• Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) : Four Trillion

• Forex Reserve US$ 272 bn ….

• Average GDP growth rate in last 4 years 8.5 %

• Saving rate : 35.6 % - highest in the world.
                                                           3
                    India's Overall GDP Growth
        12


                                                                    9.5   9.7
        10
                                                                                9.0
                                                        8.5
              7.8
         8                                                    7.5
                          6.5                                                         6.7
                                6.1
                                            5.8                                               5.8
         6
                    4.8
                                      4.4
                                                  3.8
  GDP




         4


         2


         0
             96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09    09-
                                                                                             10(F)



After average GDP growth 9% during 05-06 to 07-08. However Due to
recession the GDP growth for 08-09 was 6.7% and current year forecasted
at 5.8% only
                                                                                                     4
                                      Industry Sector
                                        GDP Growth
        12
                                                                             11.0
                                                               10.3   10.2
        10

                                                                                    8.1
         8                                               7.4
              7.1
                                       6.4
                                                   5.8                                           5.6
         6
                                4.8
                    4.3
                          3.7                                                             3.9
         4
  GDP




                                             2.7

         2


         0
             96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09       09-
                                                                                                10(F)

Last year, the industry growth reduced to 3.9% due to global
Recession. However, this year likely to revive and forecasted
at 5.6%.
                                                                                                        5
                               Service Sector
                                GDP Growth
12
                                                                    11.2
                                                                           10.9
                                                             10.6
            9.8         10.0
10                                                                                9.7
                                                       9.1
                  8.4                            8.5
                                                                                         8.2
8     7.2                            7.2   7.4


6                              5.7



4


2


0
     96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09       09-
                                                                                        10(F)

• Service sector has grown by 10 per cent in last 4 years,
  thanks to I.T. Sector
• Current year growth is forecasted to be 8.2 per cent.
                                                                                                6
           Indian Agriculture Economy

• Accounts for 20% of National GDP

• 60% population dependent, directly or indirectly on
  Agriculture


• Change in agri-output will have direct impact on
  income and purchasing power


• Agriculture in India is a livelihood for millions and a
  way of life, it is not agribusiness.


                                                            7
                                 Agriculture Sector
                                   GDP Growth
        12
                                                         10.0
        10    9.6


        8
                          6.2               6.3                       6.0
        6                                                                         5.0
                                                                            4.1
        4

        2                                                                               1.4
                                0.3                             0.0
  GDP




        0
             96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-
        -2                            0.2                                                  10(F)
                    -2.4                                                                   -2.4
        -4

        -6

        -8                                        -7.2

Agriculture Sector Growth has fluctuated depending on monsoon
performance. Indian Government is aiming at 4% Agriculture GDP Growth to
achieve 10% overall GDP growth. This year CMIE has projected negative 2.4
per cent growth in Agri. Sector due to bad monsoon                        8
            Monsoon Performance
           2000 to 2007 (June-Sept)




Current year (2009) IMD has projected the monsoon at 88%
                        of normal
                                                           9
      All India Area, Production and Yield of Rice




The production of Rice in 2008-09 estimated at 99.2 Mn. Tonnes.
Current year forecasted at 89.6 Mn. Tonnes due to lower acreage.
                                                                   10
      All India Area, Production and Yield of Wheat




Wheat production for the year 2008-09 estimated at 80.6 million tonnes.
      Current year production estimated at 79.5 million tonnes.       11
   All India Area, Production and Yield of Pulses




Production of Pulses in 2008-09 estimated at 14.7 million tonnes.
   Current year production is estimated at 15.7 million tonnes.
                                                                    12
     All India Area, Production and Yield of Sugarcane




Production of Sugarcane in 2008-09 estimated at 271.3 million tonnes.
 Current year sugar production shall declined at 253.0 million tonnes.
                                                                    13
       All India Area, Production and Yield of Cotton




As per Agri Ministry Production of Cotton bales in 2008-09 estimated at 23.3
million. However Cotton Advisory Committee estimated at 28.8 million bales.
Current year Cotton Bales production expected to be at 32.0 million.
                                                                           14
   All India Area, Production and Yield of Oilseeds




Production of Oilseeds in 2008-09 estimated at 28.2 million tonnes.
                                                                      15
Production and Per Capita Availability of Milk




    India ranks first in the world in milk production
    World average per capita availability is 265 gms/day.
    India’s average per capita availability is 246 gms/day.

                                                               16
India’s Oilseeds Sector




                          17
India’s Oilseed Map

                      Indian Oilseed Production
                               2008-09
                       Groundnut          7.34 Mn T
                       Rape-Mustard 7.37 Mn T
                       Soybean            9.90 Mn T
                       Sunflower          1.25 Mn T
                       Castor             1.12 Mn T
                       Sesame             0.73 Mn T
                       Linseed            0.16 Mn T
                       Safflower          0.18 Mn T
                       Niger Seed         0.12 Mn T
                       Total              28.16 Mn T
                       Source : Govt.of India
                                                       18
                  India's Oilseed Production
                          (Nine Conventional Oilseeds)
                                                                                             (Qty: Mn. Tons)
     35

                                                                                                  29.76
     30                                                                           27.98                   28.16

                          24.75                                   25.18
          24.38                                                           24.35           24.29
     25
                  21.32           20.72           20.66
     20                                   18.44

                                                          14.84
     15


     10


      5


      0
          96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08                          08-
                                                                                                          09(E)
                              Year (Nov-Oct)
              The Crop is nearly stagnant at 27 – 28 mln. tons
Source: GOI
                                                                                                                  19
                   Oilseed Production
                  (2003-04 To 2008-09)                         (Qty.in Mn.T.)
Crop                  08-09      07-08   06-07     05-06    04-05      03-04
Major Oilseeds
Groundnut                  7.3     9.2       4.9      8.0       6.8      8.1
Rape/Mustard               7.4     5.8       7.4      8.1       7.6      6.3
Soybean                    9.9    11.0       8.8      8.3       6.9      7.8
Other Six                  3.6     3.8       3.2      3.5       3.1      3.0
Sub-Total                 28.2    29.8      24.3     27.9     24.4      25.2
Others
Cottonseed                 8.7     9.9       9.0      8.5       6.8      5.5
Copra                      0.6     0.6       0.6      0.6       0.7      0.7
Grand Total               37.5    40.3      33.9     37.0     31.9      31.4
Cottonseed production doubled in last 5 years, thanks to Bt. Cotton.
Copra production is stagnant and likely to go down in near future.
Source : GOI
                                                                               20
                  Oilseed Sector 2008-09
 Area Under Oilseed Cultivation                    26-27 Mn. Ha.
 Average yield                                     950 – 1000 Kgs.
 Output of 9 cultivated Oilseeds                    28.2 Mn. T.
 Output of Cottonseed & Copra                        9.3 Mn. T.
                                            Total    37.5 Mn. T.

 Production of Vegetable Oils                        8.2 Mn. T.
 Demand of Veg. Oils                               14 – 15 Mn.T.
 Import of Veg. Oil 2008-09(Est.) (Nov-Oct)
                              Edible         7.70
                             Vanaspati      0.05
                             Non-edible     0.50       8.25 Mn.T.
 Per capita consumption                             12.0 – 12.5 Kg.
 Per capita consumption is rising by 3 to 4% per annum.
                                                                       21
                    Oilseed Sector - Share of India

   Vegetable Oil Sector Turnover            Rs.90,000 Cr.
                                              (US$ 18 bn. )
   Import & Export from Oilseed Sector      Rs.32,000 Cr.
                                             (US$ 6.6 bn.)


                                2008-09
   In World's Oilseed Production             8.60 %
   In World's Oilmeal Production             7.30 %
   In World's Oilmeal Export                 7.50 %
   In World's Production of Veg. Oils        6.00 %
   In World’s Vegetable Oil Import           9.22 %
   In World's Edible Oil Consumption         9.33 %

Source : Oil World 2008



                                                              22
             Indian Vegetable Oil Industry
                    Present Status
                              No. of    Annual    Utilization
         Segment              Units    Capacity        %
                                        Mn. T.
Oil Mills ( Primary Crushing ) 15000    36.0      30-35%

Solvent Extraction Plants      600      31.0      40-45%

Vegetable Oil Refiners         650      12.0      55-65%

Vanaspati ( Hydrogenated)      250       3.0      30-35%
Units
Feed Mills                     200      16.0      40-45%

                                                                23
                Vegetable Oil Sector


•   India’s Consumption            13.5 to 14.0 Mn.T.


•   Local Production               7.5 to 8.5 Mn.T


•   Size of India’s Imports        7.5 to 8.0 Mn. T.

•   Imports representing over 45 percent of aggregate
    vegetable oil consumption.




                                                        24
          What are the Prospects for
           Indigenous Supplies ?

• As per Agricultural growth projections made by the
  Government of India for the period 2008-12, oilseeds
  output is targeted to increase by 4 percent a year.

• Based on current output of about 27-28 million tons, a
  4 percent increase translates to about one million
  tons of oilseeds a year, equivalent to about 300,000 –
  350,000 tons of oils.

• India’s vegetable oil consumption is expected to rise
  faster than domestic production.

                                                           25
          Current Hot Issues for India

• Indian Agriculture slowly facing distress situation.

• Government’s efforts to strengthen farm activity
  not yielded desired results.

• Malnutrion and Under-nutrition are the serious issues.

• High Food Prices hurting poor segment of the society.

• Oilseed yield and production is stagnant and may lead
  to protein shortage if no action taken to raise the
  oilseeds production.


                                                           26
   Edible Oil Demand and ImportProjection
          (Excluding Non-edible Oils)
         Parameter            2008   2010   2015

Population ( In Billion)      1.15   1.21   1.33

Total Demand of Edible Oils   13.5   16.6   22.5
( Mn. Tons)
Domestic Supply of            7.5    9.1    12.5
Edible Oils ( Mn. Tons)
Import of Edible Oils         6.0    7.5    10.0
(Mn.Tons)
Imports as Share of Demand    44%    45%    44%

                                                   27
        Population & Consumption Growth
Year    Population    Consumption       Consumption       Consumption
                      @ 4% Growth       @ 5% Growth       @ 6% Growth
       @1.8% Growth
         In Billion    Per     Mn.T     Per     Mn.T    Per Capita   Mn.T
                      Capita           Capita              Kgs
                       Kgs              Kgs

2007      1.15        11.44    13.16   11.55    13.28    11.66       13.41
2008      1.17        11.90    13.93   12.13    14.20    12.36       14.47
2009      1.19        12.37    14.75   12.73    15.18    13.10       15.61
2010      1.21        12.87    15.61   13.37    16.22    13.89       16.85
2011      1.24        13.38    16.53   14.04    17.34    14.72       18.18
2012      1.26        13.92    17.50   14.74    18.53    15.60       19.62
2013      1.28        14.48    18.53   15.48    19.81    16.54       21.17
2014      1.30        15.05    19.62   16.25    21.18    17.53       22.84
2015      1.33        15.66    20.77   17.06    22.63    18.58       24.65

                                                                             28
Oilmeals Domestic Consumption and Export




                                           29
        Indian Production of Oilseeds/Oil Bearing Materials
                vis-à-vis Availability of Oilcake/Meal (Qty. in Mn.T.)
   Commodity             2008-09(E)              2007-08              2006-07
                       Oilseed   Oilcake /   Oilseed   Oilcake /   Oilseed   Oilcake
                           *       Meal          *       Meal          *      / Meal
Groundnut (In Shell)     5.92       1.78       6.89       2.07       4.86      1.77
Rapeseed                 6.70       3.02       4.79       2.15       7.60      3.42
Soybean                  8.90       5.34       9.46       5.68       8.85      5.57
Sunflowerseed            1.15       0.86       1.46       1.10       1.23      0.96
Sesame                   0.58       0.32       0.66       0.43       0.62      0.36
Safflower                0.17       0.09       0.17       0.09       0.24      1.13
Copra                    0.65       0.22       0.65       0.22       0.62      0.21
Cottonseed               8.68       7.38       9.92       8.42       8.99      7.64
Ricebran                 3.90       2.90       3.80       2.85       3.60      2.70
Minor Oilseeds           0.50       0.40       0.50       0.40       0.50      0.40
Total                   37.15      22.31      38.30      23.41      37.11    23.16
* Trade Estimate                                                                       30
              Oilseed Production

There is difference of 3 mnt. between trade and

Govt. estimate. If we calculate based on

Government     oilseed    production    data,   the

availability will increase by 2.0 mn. tons.




                                                      31
         Indian Production of Oilseeds/Oil Bearing Materials
                      vis-à-vis Disappearance ( Qty: Mn T.)
  Year               Production            Disappearance (cake/meal)
 (Nov-Oct)    Oilseeds/Oil   Cake / Meal    Domestic       Export
               bearing                                    (Nov.-Oct.)
               material

 2008-09(E)      37.15           22.31     17.31(78%)     5.00(22%)
 2007-08         38.30           23.41     17.91(77%)     5.50 (23%)
 2006-07         36.95           23.16     18.26 (79%)    4.90 (21%)
 2005-06         39.85           22.07     17.18 (78%)    4.89 (22%)
 2004-05         35.01           21.64     18.81 (87%)    2.83 (13%)
 2003-04         34.38           19.88     15.72 (79%)    4.16 (21%)
 2002-03         23.31           14.74     12.94 (88%)    1.80 (12%)

In 2003-04, domestic consumption was 15.72 Mn.T. which has
increased to 17.31 Mn.T. i.e. 1.6 Mn.T. in 2008-09, where as export has
increased by a million tons.
                                                                          32
                  Export of Oilmeals by India
                                                              (Qty: 000’T.)

Year
   Year       Total
              Total    Soybean Rapeseed Groundnut Castorseed Rice Bran
                      Soybean Rapeseed Groundnut Castor seed Rice Bran
(April-March)
(April-March)           Ext.
                         Ext.    Ext.
                                  Ext.    Ext.
                                           Ext.     Ext.
                                                     Ext.      Ext.
                                                                Ext.



2009-10(F) 4500.0     3400.0     750.0      50.0      150.0     150.0
2009-10    1002.0   473.0         417.0       ---      61.0     50.0
(Apr-Aug.)(2335.0) (1596.0)      (502.0)    (27.0)    (110.0) (101.0)
2008-09     5421.6    4177.3     840.9      54.8      203.9     144.7
2007-08     5442.1    3902.8     933.3      82.7      330.5     192.8
2006-07     5170.7    3661.9     970.7      83.6      202.2     252.3
2005-06     4423.0    3425.0     533.3      138.0     201.3     125.4
2004-05     2690.0    1862.0     590.0      122.0      71.0      44.0

                                                                         33
             Major Importers of Indian Oilmeals
                  2008-09 (April – March)
                                                                  (Qty. in 000’T.)
 Country    Soybean   Rapeseed   Groundnut     Rice Bran     Castorseed    Total
             Meal       Meal       Meal          Meal          Meal
Vietnam     1311.3        54.7            --      144.7               --   1510.7

S. Korea      243.6      368.9            --            --       195.6      808.1
Japan         799.3        7.0            --            --            --    806.3
Indonesia     339.4       63.0         1.0              --            --    403.4

Thailand      329.9       71.8         4.3              --            --    406.0
China         156.9      219.0        49.4              --            --    425.3
Taiwan         78.0       17.4            --            --         7.2      102.6
Others        918.9       39.1         0.1              --         1.1      959.2
Total       4177.3       840.9        54.8        144.7          203.9     5421.6

                                                                                   34
   Current Year Scenario



   All India Rainfall

Kharif Oilseeds Sowing
    and Prospects



                           35
Rainfall ( 1.6.2009 To 2.9.2009)




                                   36
Rainfall ( 3.9.2009 To 9.9.2009)




                                   37
Rainfall ( 1.6.2009 To 9.9.2009)




    Rain deficit has reduced to 21%.   38
          Kharif Sowing as on 10th Sept.,2009
                                                     (Area in Lakh Ha.)
Items               Normal       2008      2009          Change
                                                      Compared to
                                                           2008
Groundnut               53.59     51.16      42.98            (-) 8.18
Soybean                 78.10     95.63      95.20            (-) 0.43
Sunflower                8.06      5.64       4.74            (-) 0.90
Sesamum                 14.94     14.40      14.53            (-) 0.13
Niger                    3.84      3.20       1.96            (-) 1.24
Castor                   7.89      7.67       6.51            (-) 1.16
Total                 166.40     177.70     165.92           (-) 11.78

Acreage is near normal but lesser than last year.
                                                                          39
          State-wise Area Covered Under Kharif Oilseeds
                         as on 10.9.2009  (Area in Lakh Ha.)
State       G.Nut    Soy-     Sun-    Ses-    Niger Castor-    Total    2008
                     bean     flow    mum     seed   seed
                                er
A. P.         9.18    1.85    0.54     0.38      ---   1.25     13.20    18.65
C.G.          0.51    1.33    0.04     0.44    0.43      ---     2.75     3.29
Gujarat      16.58    0.86      ---    2.15    0.08    4.15     23.82    25.40
Karnataka     5.54    2.37    3.45     0.70    0.18    0.20     12.44    13.07
M. P.         1.90   51.02      ---    2.28    0.46      ---    55.66    56.76
Mah.          2.57   30.55    0.63     0.51    0.30    0.07     34.63    34.57
Orissa        0.85      ---     ---    1.28    0.51    0.10      2.74     2.28
Rajasthan     3.15    7.09      ---    4.15      ---   0.67     15.06    17.32
T.N.          1.69      ---   0.06     0.33      ---   0.06      2.14     2.95
U.P.          0.91    0.11      ---    1.88      ---     ---     2.90     2.90
Others        0.10    0.02    0.02     0.43      ---   0.01      0.58     0.51
Total        42.98   95.20    4.74    14.53    1.96    6.51    165.92   177.70
2008         51.16   95.63    5.64    14.40    3.20    7.67    177.70       40
            Kharif Oilseeds Prospects
                                                         (Qty.in Lakh MT)
Oilseeds              2009-10(Est.)               2008-09
                     Area       Produ-     Production      Production
                                ction      Trade Est.       Govt. Est.
Groundnut               43.0       33.0           42.2             56.4
Soybean                 95.0       92.0           89.0             99.0
Castorseed               8.5       10.0           10.2             11.2
Sesamum                 15.0         3.5           3.0             7.3*
Sunflower                6.0         3.6           4.0              3.8
Niger                    2.5         0.5           0.8              1.2
Toria                     ---        1.5           1.5               ---
Total                  170.0     144.1           150.7            178.9
Cottonseed Bales       99.83        320           288
In Lakh

* Kharif & Rabi combined
                                                                            41
       Estimate of Oilseed Production
                                                 (Qty.in Lakh MT)


 Oilseeds                  2009-10              2008-09

 Kharif                    144.0(E)               150.7

 Rabi                      105.0(F)                95.8

 Total                     249.0(F)               246.5


The overall oilseed production would be the same of last year
but export of oilmeals would be down and Cottonseed cake /
meal production will increased by 10 lakh tons therefore local
availability of oilmeals would be higher compared to last year.
                                                                    42
43
                                      Dr. B.V.MEHTA
                                     Executive Director

                The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India
            A Premier Association of Vegetable Oil Industry & Trade in India
                             ISO 9001:2008 Organisation
             142, Jolly Maker Chambers No. II, 14th Floor, 225, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
                         Tel: (+91-22) 2202 1475. 2282 2979, Fax.: (+91-22) 2202 1692
                         Email: solvent@mtnl.net.in , Website:www.seaofindia.com

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