Wind Energy 101 NREL SNL by IntV6L2

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									                                                                                                                                                  Sandia
                                                                                                                                                  National
                                                                                                                                                  Laboratories
 Wind Energy 101
                     Integration of Renewable
 4th International Conference on
 and Distributed Energy Resources

 December 6, 2010                                          Kirsten Orwig (NREL) and Benjamin Karlson (SNL)




Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the
                                U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
  NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.
  Overview


  •   Current industry status
  •   Turbine technologies
  •   Assessment and Siting
  •   Grid Integration




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   2   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                         Current Industry Status




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   3     SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Global Installed Capacity




                Cumulative Capacity
                                            1071
                                                     Advanced: Best wind case
                                               832   scenario for policy and market

                                                     Moderate: Supportive policy
                                                     measures enacted & emissions
                                               415   reductions implemented

                                  158
                                                     Reference: Based on IEA 2009
                                                     World Energy Outlook w/existing
                                                     policies

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY    4                    SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Installed Capacity in the United States




• All renewable energy sources provided 10.5% of the U.S.
  power mix in 2009;
• Wind generation is approaching the two percent mark of the
  U.S. power mix, reaching 1.8% of U.S. generation in 2009;
• Hydro generation is approximately 7%. DOE focus and
  investment in efficiency upgrades and water use optimization.

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY          5                   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                            U.S. Wind Power Capacity Up >40% in 2009
                       12                                                                                                                                                                                                               36


                                                        Annual US Capacity (left scale)
                       10                                                                                                                                                                                                               30
                                                        Cumulative US Capacity (right scale)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Cumulative Capacity (GW)
                        8                                                                                                                                                                                                               24
Annual Capacity (GW)




                        6                                                                                                                                                                                                               18


                        4                                                                                                                                                                                                               12


                        2                                                                                                                                                                                                               6


                        0                                                                                                                                                                                                               0
                            1981
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2009
                        Record year for new U.S. wind power capacity:
                         • 10 GW of wind power added in 2009, bringing total to ~35 GW
                         • Nearly $21 billion in 2009 project investment
                                                                                                                                                                                              Source: DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report


                       NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                                                                             6                                                SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                                     Projected Growth
                                                            20% Requires 300 GW - Land & Offshore
                                     300
                                              Offshore
Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW)




                                              Land-based
                                     250


                                     200


                                     150


                                     100
                                                               Projected
                                      50
                                                   Actual

                                       0
                                       2000          2006          2012           2018               2024                    2030
                                                                                          Source: DOE 20% Wind Energy by 2020 Report

                  NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                    7               SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Realistically, How Much Wind is Available?




      Excludes PTC, includes transmission costs to access 10% existing electric
      transmission capacity within 500 miles of wind resource.

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                     8                        SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                          Wind Power Capacity In Queue

          •                 Roughly 300 GW in Transmission Interconnection Queues.

                          350

                          300                            Entered Queue in 2009         Total in queue at end of 2009
Nameplate Capacity (GW)




                          250

                          200

                          150

                          100


                          50

                           0
                                 Wind      Natural Gas      Coal             Nuclear                Solar               Other



                 Not all of this capacity will be built….
                                                                                               Source: DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                               9                         SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Offshore in the United States?

  •    No Offshore Projects Have Been Built in the U.S., But 13 Projects Are
       At a More-Advanced Permitting/Development Stage




Cape Wind granted approval by Department of Interior in April 2010.
                                                           Source: DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY    10                SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Renewable Portfolio Standards




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   11   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                                 Wind Technology




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY    12         SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                                           US Turbine Vendors
                                           •    GE Remained the Top Turbine Vendor in the U.S. Market, But a
                                                Growing Number of Other Manufacturers Are Capturing Market Share.
                                         100%                                                                                            Other
                                          90%
Turbine Manufacturer U.S. Market Share




                                                                                                                                         Nordex

                                          80%                                                                                            Acciona

                                          70%                                                                                            REpower

                                          60%                                                                                            Gamesa

                                          50%                                                                                            Clipper

                                          40%                                                                                            Suzlon

                                                                                                                                         Mitsubishi
                                          30%
                                                                                                                                         Siemens
                                          20%
                                                                                                                                         Vestas
                                          10%
                                                                                                                                         GE Wind
                                           0%
                                                      2005               2006      2007            2008              2009

                                         • Chinese and South Korean manufacturers seeking entry into U.S. market;
                                         • For first time in 2009, a turbine vendor from China (Goldwind) saw sales in the U.S.
                                                                                                             Source: DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report

                                         NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY          13                  SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                              Average Turbine Size Higher in 2009
                            2.0
                                                                                                                                               1.74 MW
                            1.8                                                                                1.65 MW        1.66 MW
                                                                                                1.60 MW
Average Turbine Size (MW)




                            1.6
                                                                                 1.43 MW
                            1.4
                                                                  1.21 MW
                            1.2

                            1.0                    0.88 MW
                            0.8     0.71 MW

                            0.6
                            0.4

                            0.2

                            0.0
                                    1998-99         2000-01        2002-03        2004-05         2006           2007            2008            2009
                                  1,425 turbines 1,987 turbines 1,757 turbines 1,960 turbines 1,536 turbines 3,190 turbines 5,029 turbines 5,734 turbines
                                   1,016 MW       1,758 MW        2,125 MW       2,803 MW       2,454 MW       5,249 MW       8,350 MW        9,994 MW



             25% of turbines installed in 2009 were larger than 2.0 MW, up from
             19% in 2008, 16% in 2006 & 2007, and just 0.1% in 2004-05.
                                                                                                                    Source: DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report

                            NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                        14                        SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Average Hub Heights and Rotor Diameters Have
  Increased Over Time



     On average, since 1998-99, hub heights are 22 meters
     (39%) higher and rotor diameters are 33 meters (69%) larger




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY               15              SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Parts of Modern Commercial Turbines




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   16   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Wind Turbine Generator Types
Type 1




Type 2




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   17   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Wind Turbine Generator Types Continued
Type 3




Type 4




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   18   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Wind Turbine Capabilities


  Induction Generators:
  • Absorbed VARS – no voltage support or control;
  • Tripped due to voltage or frequency excursion;
  • Provided no voltage control or droop control.

  New Machines:
  • Dynamic reactive power;
  • Low (or zero) voltage ride-through;
  • Dynamic real power control – droop control, ramp
    mitigation.

                                             Source: Brendan Kirby, NREL Consultant

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   19   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                         Assessment and Siting




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   20   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Generation Potential


  Depends on:
  • Available resource;
  • Turbulence characteristics;
  • Terrain and roughness influences;
  • Turbine characteristics.

  Remember…
  Power in the wind = K 1/2  A V3
        – wind speed, V
        – swept area, A
        – air density, 
        – conversion efficiency constant, K
        – 45% efficiency for modern machines
                 Power ~ (wind speed)3

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY     21    SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Wind Farm Development Process

 The Simplified Development Process…
 1.   Establish Market Area of Interest;
 2.   Paper Prospecting (Maps, Analysis);
 3.   Field Verification of Prospects and Evaluation;
 4.   Pre-Screening for Fatal Flaws;
 5.   Securing Financing;
 6.   Engineering / Procurement / Construction (EPC);
 7.   Operations and Maintenance (O&M).



                    …ALWAYS 5 PRIMARY AREAS OF FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT

                           1.   Wind
                           2.   Transmission
                           3.   Land
                           4.   Permitting
                           5.   Power Purchase Agreement


NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY             22          SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   23   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Measurement Campaign
 • Tall towers and remote sensing measurements are needed
   to evaluate the resource and estimate Annual Energy
   Production (AEP)
 • Tall towers (100 m + in height)
       – 1-2 years of data is typical
 • Remote sensing instruments
       – Sodar
       – Lidar
       – Radar




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY    24   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
 Annual average shear exponents can vary from 1/7 to 0.25,
 causing considerable uncertainty in vertical extrapolations of
 wind resource

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   25              SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Project Financing Requirements


  • Requires at least 1 year of
    on-site monitoring
  • Analysis and correlation to
    long term reference
  • Uncertainty analysis




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   26   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Wind Resource Assessment Process

Meteorological Data
    Collection


                  Data Validation


                                 MCP – Measure
                                 Correlate Predict


                                             Local Climatology



                                                       Uncertainty Analysis


                                                                    Energy Production
                                                                        Estimate

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY             27              SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Siting & Permitting Considerations


• Small changes in
  location can cause
  large effects in
  production (up to 10%
  capacity factor) and
  potentially cause
  reliability issues;
• Transmission;
• NIMBY;
• Environmental/Avian;
• FAA.



NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY   28   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Approximate Annual Bird Kills




Wind Power
up to 80,000




                                                           House Cats
                                                           100 million


Cell Towers                            Power Lines
up to 50 million                       up to 175 Million
                                                                 Source: National Wind Coordinating Collaborative

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY          29                    SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
   Electrical Generation Impacts on Wildlife


   • NYSERDA Study
Electricity Generation           Life Cycle Assessment             EPA Risk
       Sources                                                    Assessment

        Coal                              Extraction                Problem
                                                                   Formulation
          Oil                           Transportation
                                                                                                   Wildlife
    Natural Gas                          Construction          Exposure        Effects              Risk

       Nuclear                         Power Generation
                                         Transmission &         Risk Characterization
        Hydro                              Distribution

         Wind                          Decommissioning



                                                                                              Source: NYSERDA

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                      30              SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Relative Wildlife Risk Level for Potential Harm


Source           Resource           Fuel       Construct     Power      Transmission      Decommission
                 Extraction      Transport                 Generation
Coal               Highest             Lower    Lower       Highest       Moderate             Lower

Oil                 Higher         Highest      Lower        Higher       Moderate             Lower

Natural Gas         Higher        Moderate      Lowest      Moderate      Moderate             Lowest

Nuclear            Highest         Lowest       Lowest      Moderate      Moderate             Lowest

Hydro               None               None     Highest     Moderate      Moderate             Higher

Wind                None               None     Lowest      Moderate      Moderate             Lowest




                                                                                             Source: NYSERDA

NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                 31                  SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
                                  Wind Integration




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY     32          SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
    Wind Integration Challenges
 Inability to Dispatch
 • Weather determines output
 Variability
 • Increases difficulty to balance load
 Uncertainty
 • Can be forecasted to a large extent
 Different Electrical Characteristics
 • Lower inertia, voltage tolerance,
   reactive controls
 • Still compatible with the grid




Areas of Consideration:
                                                          System Load (MW)




System Planning and Operation
Transmission Planning                                                                                                                          Days




Market Operation & Transmission Policy                                                    Time (hour of day)
                                                                                                                                               Unit
                                                                                                                                            Commitment
                                                                             0    4   8           12         16      20    24




                                                                                          tens of minutes to hours              day
                                          seconds to minutes
                                                                                                 Load                       Scheduling
                                             Regulation
                                                                                               Following



  NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY                                       33                                           SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
    Questions of Interest for Integration Studies

•    How do local wind resources compare with higher
     capacity factor wind that requires more
     transmission?
•    How does geographic diversity of wind power
     reduce wind integration costs?
•    How does offshore wind compare with onshore
     wind?
•    How does balancing area cooperation affect wind
     power integration costs?
•    How much transmission is needed to facilitate
     higher penetrations of wind power?
•    What is the role of wind forecasting?
•    How are wind integration costs spread over large
     market footprints and regions?
•    What additional operating reserves are needed?




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY     34             SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
    Broad Regional Studies
Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study
   (EWITS)
http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study
   (WWSIS)
http://westconnect.com/planning_nrel.php                  LEGEND
                                                          WestConnect Lines
                                                          California Lines
                                                          LADWP Lines

•
                                                          DC Lines
      Goal is to understand the costs and operating
      impacts due to the variability and uncertainty
      of 20-30% wind energy on the grid
•     Heavily stakeholder driven scenario
      development and technical review
•     Participation in other studies: Nebraska Power
      Authority, Portland General Electric, New England
      ISO, Southwest Power Pool, Hawaii, Arizona Power
      Authority




              DOE work provides objective technical information on grid options

    NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY          35                          SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Does wind need backup or storage?
 • Increased operating reserves may be
   necessary, but not dedicated backup
 • Although new storage has value, it may not
   be cost effective
 • There is typically already storage on the
   system
       – Natural gas in the pipeline or storage facility
       – Controllable hydro
       – Thermal storage (ex: HVAC cycling)
 • A recent study by Xcel Energy in Colorado
   found
       – existing pumped storage provided
         $1.30/MWh offset to wind integration cost
       – Enlarging existing gas storage facility was
         economic at large wind penetration
                                                                   EnerNex: Xcel Colorado
                                                                   Wind Integration Study

                     Wind Penetration                      10%                  15%

  $/ MWH Gas Impact No Storage Benefits                    $2.17                $2.52
  $ / MWH Gas Impact With Storage Benefits                 $1.26                $1.45
NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY               36         SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  And the Conclusion is….

      There are no fundamental technical
        barriers to the integration of 20%
          wind energy into the nation’s
        electrical system, but …. there
     needs to be a continuing evolution of
       transmission planning and system
          operation policy and market
        development for this to be most
             economically achieved.




NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY         37   SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES
  Organizational and Study Web Links
  Utility Wind Integration Group (UWIG) (www.uwig.org) and Wind Integration Library
  http://www.uwig.org/opimpactsdocs.html

  NREL Renewable System Integration publication web site
  http://nreldev.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/publications.html

  Sandia National Labs Wind & Water Power Technology web site
  http://windpower.sandia.gov

  Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS )
  http://wind.nrel.gov/public/EWITS/

  Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS)
  http://westconnect.com/planning_nrel.php

  International Energy Agency, Task 25. Hannele Holttinen, et.al. Design and
  operation of power systems with large amounts of wind power State of the art
  report. http://www.vtt.fi/inf/pdf/workingpapers/2007/W82.pdf



NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY        38                 SANDIA NATIONAL LABORATORIES

								
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