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M E M O R AN D U M
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Jefrey Pollock & Nick Gourevitch, Global Strategy Group
Geoff Garin, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group
RE: Priorities USA Action Polling Memo
DATE: July 10, 2012
Priorities USA Action
the centerpiece of his case for the presidency has proven to be
much more of a liability than an asset in key swing states. Clear negative trends have emerged in recent
polling conducted in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia by Global Strategy Group and
Garin-‐Hart-‐Yang Research Group on behalf of Priorities USA Action. The following memo summarizes
the findings of five statewide polls consisting of over 3,800 total interviews with likely voters between
June 25 and July 3, 2012.
his business experience
negatively:
likely to vote for him. Just 27% say it makes them MORE likely to vote for him.
58% of swing state voters now say it is true that as a businessman, Romney's priority was
making millions for himself and his investors, regardless of the impact on jobs and the
employees
In all five of these swing states, more voters have an unfavorable view of Mitt Romney
than a favorable one.
favorable and 43% unfavorable.
among whom
he has a 12-point net negative favorable rating (30% favorable/42% unfavorable).
rating in Ohio (46%) a state considered by many the key to the 2012 election.
MITT ROMNEY PERSONAL POPULARITY
Favorable Unfavorable Difference
5-State Total 36 43 -7
Colorado 37 45 -8
Florida 38 42 -4
Ohio 35 46 -11
Pennsylvania 31 43 -12
Virginia 40 41 -1
NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM
2
In all five of these swing states, President Obama leads Mitt Romney in a head-to-head
matchup. On average, President Obama leads his Republican challenger by a 48% to 42%
margin. Among Independents, that margin is seven points (44% to 37%).
VOTE FOR PRESIDENT
Obama Romney Difference
5-State Total 48 42 +6
Colorado 49 42 +7
Florida 48 44 +4
Ohio 48 41 +7
Pennsylvania 49 40 +9
Virginia 46 43 +3
President Obama is seen as the candidate best served to meet the needs of the middle
class. By a 19-point margin, voters in these swing states see President Obama as the best
Romney).
Obama also leads Romney by significant margins among a wide array of other personal
clear negative impact on perceptions of Romney across a variety of metrics. Over the last
two months, Priorities USA has run advertising in 11 media markets across the five states
mentioned in this memo. To analyze the effectiveness of this campaign, we ran an analysis of
Priorities markets
-Priorities markets experiment as the
two groups of markets are attitudinally very similar. For example, in the 2008 campaign,
Priorities markets
-Priorities markets ng showed the political affiliations of
these two market groups as nearly identical (for example, 41% of voters in both market groups
self-identify as Republican or Republican-leading). But an analysis of these two market groups
shows clear differences in attitudes across a wide spectrum of metrics relating to the
Presidential race:
Priorities markets eight points (49% to
non-Priorities markets three points (46% to 43%).
Priorities markets nine points
non-Priorities markets
rating is net negative by five points (37%/42%).
Priorities markets 40% of voters
non-Priorities markets 34% of voters say that.
Priorities markets 11-point advantage on being the
cand non-Priorities markets
Obama holds a 5-point lead.
