Hydrologic Science Planning and Innovation

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					    Part I: the Office of Hydrologic
Development Strategic Science Plan


         Pedro Restrepo
         Senior Scientist,
      Office of Hydrologic
          Development
    National Weather Service
             NOAA


     University of Central Florida
               Orlando
            March, 2010
                                     National Weather Service
                              National Weather Service
                             Headquarters Organization
                                           NWS Director &
                                           NOAA Assistant
                                            Administrator




                                            Deputy Director




                                                          Office of
        Office of    Office of     Office of
                                                          Climate,         Office of Strategic
       Hydrologic   Science and   Operational                                                    Regions
                                                        weather and             Planning
      Development   Technology     Systems
                                                        water services


Water Predictions
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                                                                         National Weather Service
               Office of Hydrologic Development

                                           Gary Carter, Director



                    Project Planning
                    and Coordination


                                        Hydrology Lab Gary Carter,
                                               Acting Chief


                    Senior Scientist,
                    Pedro Restrepo


             Science and Modeling Branch                     Software Engineering Branch
                Geoffrey Bonnin, Chief                             Jon Roe, Chief
Water Predictions
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                                                                   National Weather Service
                    Weather Forecast Offices




Water Predictions
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                                National Weather Service
                    River Forecast Centers




Water Predictions
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                              National Weather Service
                    Hydrologic Forecast Points in the
                                                  US




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                                        National Weather Service
                    Current Research at OHD
      • Hydrology Group
      • Hydrometeorology Group
      • Ensemble, Data Assimilation and
        Verification Group
      • Hydraulics Group




Water Predictions
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                                  National Weather Service
                                   The Future of Hydrologic
                                    Forecasting at the NWS
     •   Emphasis on models with physically observable parameters; cold weather processes:
         thawing-freezing cycle (Red River case); river ice forming, breaking, damming
     •   Enhanced use of remotely sensed information on a wide range of atmospheric and
         land-surface characteristics, from both active and passive satellite-based and/or
         airborne sensors;
     •   Higher-resolution models;
     •   Explicit consideration of the uncertainty in the forcings (observations and forecasts). An
         ensemble approach is currently being pursued and will be fully implemented for short-,
         medium- and long-term forecasting);
     •   Multi-model ensembles to address the problem of uncertainty in the forecasts arising
         from structural errors in the models (These ensembles may be formed by
         combinations of lumped or distributed, conceptual or physically based models);
     •   Explicit consideration of the errors introduced by sub-optimal parameter values and
         initial conditions;
     •   Data assimilation of in-situ and remote-sensed state variables; and
     •   Verification of single-value (deterministic) and ensemble (probabilistic) forecasts.


Water Predictions
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                                                                   National Weather Service
                                                                       Distributed Model
                                                                Intercomparison Project-2
                                        (0.24, 73.0)
        30


        20
                         ELDO2
                    (all periods, calibrated)
        10
  Bias, %




            0


     -10


     -20


     -30
                0      0.1    0.2    0.3    0.4        0.5    0.6   0.7   0.8   0.9   1
                                                       rmod




Water Predictions
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                                                                                          National Weather Service
                           The Future of Hydrologic
                                          Modeling
      • Current Shortfalls of Physically Based Hydrologic Models
        - The models are typically based on small-scale hydrologic theory
          and thereby fail to account for larger-scale processes such as
          preferential flow paths;
        - The data necessary to estimate parameter values are not
          available at high enough resolution, certainty, or both;
        - The data necessary to drive the models are not available at high
          enough resolution, certainty or both; and
        - Despite the rapid increase in computer power and decrease in
          hardware costs, the computational demands are still a barrier,
          particularly for performing data assimilation and ensemble
          modeling in real-time.



Water Predictions
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                                                   National Weather Service
                                How advances in predictability science transition to
                                                improved operational predictions

               Forecast Skill




                                                          New Paradigm



                                           Existing paradigm




                                              Time
Water Predictions                                              Adapted from: NRC 2002
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                                                                    National Weather Service
                                         Hydrologic Models
     • Continued research and development on physically based
       models offers the potential for:
           -   More accurate forecasts in ungauged and poorly gauged basins;
           -   More accurate forecasts after changes in land use and land
               cover, such as forest fires and other large-scale disturbances to
               soil and vegetation;
           -   More accurate forecasts under non-stationary climate conditions;
           -   Modeling of interior states and fluxes, which are critical for
               forecasts of water quality, soil moisture, land slides, groundwater
               levels, low flows, etc.; and
           -   The ability to merge hydrologic forecasting models with those for
               weather and climate forecasting.


Water Predictions
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                                                         National Weather Service
           Hydrology Group
14 UTC                                             15 UTC
                      In these examples,
                      frequencies are derived
                      from routed flows,
                      demonstrating the
                      capability to forecast
                      floods in locations
                      downstream of where the
                      rainfall occurred.
                        ARI (years)


 16 UTC                                            17 UTC



                     Flood frequencies are
                     expressed in terms of the
                     Average Recurrence Interval
                     (ARI) associated with the
Water Predictions    annual maximum flood.
for
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                                                   National Weather Service
                      Precipitation Observations-
                                    Where we are
      • Precipitation is the primary driver for streamflow, affecting
        discharge through surface runoff, subsurface flow,
        groundwater recharge, and snowmelt
      • Varying time scale of the watershed response to
        precipitation input, depending on the watershed size and
        characteristics, from minutes to months.
      • For areas well covered with radar and raingauges:
         - Multisensor Precipitation Estimator
         - USACE-developed P3 algorithm, enhanced and used
           at the ABRFC
         - Mountain mapper, developed at the CBRFC

Water Predictions
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                                               National Weather Service
                Winter Effective Radar Coverage




Water Predictions
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                                  National Weather Service
                    NOAA Precipitation Observation
                                        Algorithms

           OAR/NSSL              NWS            NESDIS/STAR

             WSR-88D/     WSR-88D/   ABRFC/P3        GOES/
              NMQ           MPE                     SCaMPR



                              Rain Gauge
                              Evaluation



                              Streamflow
Water Predictions             Evaluation
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                                                National Weather Service
                              Precipitation Observations-
                                    Where we want to be
      • Continuous, routine integration of all available sensor data and where needed,
        numerical prediction model estimates.
      • Characterizations of the statistical distributions of estimation error will be used by the
        multisensor algorithms, and will be available to end users
      • For radar:
         - implementation of dual-polarization algorithms
         - introduction of reflectivity profile and range corrections
         - automated selection of Z-R relationships
         - Spatial error understanding and modeling
         - Gap-filling radars in mountainous regions
      • For satellite:
         - Implementation of algorithms for automatic real-time calibration of infrared
            temperature vs. rain-rate relationships based on collocated satellite and radar data
         - Anticipating the GPM deployment, OHD will explore applications of the Tropical
            Radar Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) observations
         - Improved precipitation estimates by combining new satellite algorithms with
            numerical model prediction results (NOAA-CREST, Sayesteh Mahani)
      • ENSEMBLES!!!!!
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                                                                  National Weather Service
                         Precipitation Forecasting-
                                     Where we are
      • Short-term nowcasting (< 3 hours)
      • Near-term forecasting (3-12 hours) by a combination of
        radar-feature extrapolation and output from the Global
        Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale
        (NAM) models.
         - Manual modifications based on experience and
           physical logic are made to gridded precipitation fields
           by NCEP forecasters, and by HAS forecasters at
           RFCs. Output from the two models is subjectively
           weighted according to recent performance in the areas
           of interest.
           - Longer-term forecasts are based on GFS and NAM
             output
Water Predictions
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                                             National Weather Service
                                 Hydrometeorology Group




Current Radars (WSR88D)




New Radars (Dual Polarization)




                                          National Weather Service
                    High-resolution Precipitation
                                      Nowcaster




Water Predictions
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                                    National Weather Service
                     Soil Moisture Observations
      • What for?
         - Model Calibration
         - Model Verification
         - Data Assimilation both for floods and drought forecasts
         - Water balance estimation in irrigated areas
      • Problems:
         - Current space-based techniques only sample the very top layer of the soil
         - Would a combination of remote-sensed information and models will be
           able to tell us the soil moisture profile and assess irrigation amounts? We
           hope UCI and UA will be able to tell us
      • New Techniques to be researched:
         - Cosmic rays
         - Broadcast radio
         - GRACE in combination with other techniques?
         - GPS reflectivity
         - ?

Water Predictions
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                                                          National Weather Service
                    Ensemble Forecasting and Data
                       Assimilation- Where we are
      • Until now, operational ensemble forecast has been limited to Ensemble
        Streamflow Prediction (ESP) runs, essentially a long-range probabilistic
        forecast.
      • Since AHPS, NWS is committed to generate streamflow forecasts at all time
        scales: customers and partners clearly indicate a need for short-term
        forecasts.
         - Ensemble pre-processor, to generate QPF and QTF short-term
            ensembles from single-value weather forecasts.
         - Ensemble post-processor to account for hydrologic uncertainty and river
            regulation
         - Hydrologic Ensemble Hindcaster, to support large-sample verification of
            streamflow ensembles
         - Ensemble Verification System for verification of precipitation, temperature
            and streamflow ensembles
      • Partners: NCEP, HEPEX, Universities, RFCs, NASA Goddard, etc.

Water Predictions
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                                                          National Weather Service
                     Ensembles- Where we want to be
                     Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction System

                     QPE, QTE,               QPF, QTF
                    Soil Moisture

                                           Ensemble Pre-
                                             Processor


                                         Hydrology & Water            Parametric
                        Data
                                         Resources Models             Uncertainty
                     Assimilator
                                                                      Processor

                                                                  Hydrologic Ensemble
                                          Ensemble Post-               Processor
                    Streamflow
                                            Processor


                                    Hydrology & Water Resources
                                    Ensemble Product Generator




                                                                                                     Improved
                                                                                                     accuracy,
                                                                                                      Reliable
                                                                                                    uncertainty
                                                                                                     estimates,
                                                                                                    Benefit-cost
                                                                                                   effectiveness
                                                                                                    maximized
Water Predictions
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                                                                                        National Weather Service
              Multimodel Ensemble Framework
                                                Multimodel Ensemble Framework
                    Data                                                                         Multiscale
                    Assimilation        Weather forecasts          Climate forecasts             modeling

                                            Uncertain future boundary conditions


                                                       Hydrologic models
                          Precipitation,
                          Precipitation,
                           Precipitation,
                       temperature, PE,                                                 Physiographic
                        temperature, PE,
                         temperature, PE,                Structural errors               Phy iographic
                                                                                         Physsiographic
                       lateral inflow, etc.
                        lateral inflow, etc.                                                data
                                                                                             data
                         lateral inflow, etc.                                                 data
                      Uncer tain current                Hydraulic models               Uncertain model
                     boundary conditions                                                 parameters
                                                         Structural errors
                        Soil moisture,                                                    Anthropogenic
                         Soil moisture,
                          Soil moisture,             Water resources models               Anthropogenic
                                                                                           Anthropogenic
                        SWE, storage,
                         SWE, storage,                                                        control
                                                                                               control
                         SWE, storage,
                              etc.                                                              control
                               etc.
                                etc.                     Structural errors             Uncertain operating
                       Uncertain current                                               rules, m anagement
                       initial conditions             Integrative uncertainty               practices

                                        Reliable and skillful ensemble and probabilis tic
Water Predictions                    information at the local, regional and national scales
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                                                                                National Weather Service
                            Operational hydrologic Data
                                           Assimilation
 MODIS-derived snow cover           Atmospheric forcing          In-situ snow water
                                                                  equivalent (SWE)
         AMSR-derived SWE1            Snow models
                                                                  SNODAS SWE
                                                  Snowmelt                 CPPA external
     MODIS-derived surface                                                  (Clark et al.)
         temperature                 Potential evap. (PE)
                                 Precipitation
MODIS-derived cloud cover
                                 Soil moisture accounting       In-situ soil moisture
           AMSR-derived SM1               models                         (SM)

   NASA-NWS (Restrepo (PI)                      Runoff
   Peters-Lidard (Co-PI) and
     Limaye (Co-PI) et al.)         Hydrologic routing
                                                                Streamflow or stage
                                         models

                                                 Flow         CPPA Core, AHPS, Water
                                                               Resources (Seo et al.)
           Satellite altimetry   Hydraulic routing models        River flow or stage
                                                 Flow
      Predictions
Water 1
        pending     assessment
for                               reservoir, etc., models
Life Decisions
                                                            National Weather Service
Water Predictions
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                         From Seo et Service
                    National Weather al. 2003
                                    Data Assimilation




                                         WTTO2 Channel Network



                    ABRFC / WTTO2




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                                         National Weather Service
                                 Ensemble Kalman Filter
              Assimilation of SWE- U. of Colorado, NIWA


      Interpolated SWE
      Mean & Std. Dev


      Model


      Truth




Water Predictions
for
                                               CIRES   University of Colorado
Life Decisions
              Slater & Clark, 2006     National Weather Service
                    Ensemble Forecasting: Experimental
                         Ensemble Forecasting System

                      EPP User                                                                    Ens. User
                      Interface
                                                  XEFS Graphical User Interface                   Interface


                                                       O FS
                                      Flow Data                   MODs
                                                                                                           Web
                                                        IFP                                                Inter-
                                                                                                            face
                                                         Ens.
                                     EPP3            Streamflow
                                                                  ESP2           EnsPost                         EPG
                                                     Prediction
                                        Hydro-         System       Raw       Ens.        Pp’ed    Product          Ensemble
                      Ens. Pre-
                                      meteorol.                     flow      Post -      flow    Generation         /prob.
                      Processor
                                      ensembles                     ens.      Proc.       ens.    Subsystem         products
                                                       HMOS
                                                     Ensemble
                     Atmospheric                     Processor
                     forc ing data

                                                     Hydrologic
                                                     Ensemble                          EVS
                                                     Hindcaster
                                                                           Ensemble                Ensemble
                                                                           Verification           verification
                                                                            System                 products


Water Predictions
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                                                                                          National Weather Service
                    Streamflow Forecast Verification
      • The 2007 BAMS article by Welles et al. “Hydrologic Verification: a call for
        action and collaboration” clearly showed the need for hydrologic verification
      • The Department of Commerce also requested a formal hydrologic verification
        program
      • The only way to know if all the improvements to hydrologic forecasting
        mentioned earlier are paying off is by having a comprehensive verification
        system
      • OHD, in collaboration with the U. of Iowa, is already developing such a
        system. It comprises
           -   Data Archiving, including forecaster modifications
           -   Computing Verification Metrics
           -   Uncertainty Analysis
           -   Diagnostic and Prognostic Verification
           - Communicating results

Water Predictions
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                                                             National Weather Service
                       Ensemble Forecast Skill- Iowa
                       Institute of Hydraulic Resarch
                                                    Skill depends on the
                                                    threshold
                                                    Uncertainty is greater for
                                                    extremes
                                          Skill     Summary measures
                                                    describe attributes of the
                                                    function




                       Standard
                         Errors




                    April 1st Forecasts

Water Predictions
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                                                  National Weather Service
                                   Hydraulics Group
      • Where we want to be:
        - Integration of river models with estuary/ocean models
           - Use of 2Dimensional models where required
           - Coupled Surface-groundwater models
           - Water quality forecasting models: temperature,
             contaminants, nutrients




Water Predictions
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                                              National Weather Service
                            Hydrologic Forecasting in the
                                            Coastal zone


                                    MARFC
                    SERFC




                                            Coastal Areas
                                            Outside
                    LMRFC                   the Forecast
                                            Zones

Water Predictions
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                                                   National Weather Service
         Part II: The Community
          Hydrologic Prediction
                  System
                   CHPS
                              Pedro Restrepo
                              Senior Scientist
                    Office of Hydrologic Development
                        National Weather Service

                         University of California, Irvine
Water Predictions               October, 2009
for
     Decisions
Life 34
                                                    National Weather Service
                                                              Why CHPS?
     NWSRFS is a great architecture that was developed for use on mainframe computers
      • lacks modern modularity
      • difficult to add new models and techniques
      • inhibits collaboration and research to operations
      • very fast
     CHPS will allow:
      • greater ease in implementing new models
      • greater collaboration with agency partners, universities, international community
      • probably not as fast




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Life 35
                                                                 National Weather Service
                                        Open System…

       • No implications when introducing new model concepts
       • Maintain current models/investments
       • Easily introduce new advances


                                                         Model 1
                                                        HD Model
                                          Flood          Current
                                                         Model 2
          Organization                  Forecasting
                                          System         Model 3
                                                        University

Water Predictions
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                                               National Weather Service
                         Open interface to models
                                              DELFT-FEWS


      No model intelligence in
                                              Generic Module
      DELFT-FEWS                                 Adapter
      Model intelligence vested in
      model adapter
                                                  XML



                                                  Model
                                                 Adapter

                                     Native                    Native
                                     format       Model        format




Water Predictions
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                                              National Weather Service
                               Implementation Strategy
     Clear planning and execution
      • Gap analysis for essential operations
           - Use of existing calibrated parameter sets is essential
      • Preprocessing and post-processing utilities
      • AWIPS II integration
      • Staff training
      • Change in conditions of work (NWSEO)
      • Technical support
      • RFC contributions (individual, groups, regions)
      • Many others…




Water Predictions
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                                                            National Weather Service
                               Implementation Strategy
     Two tiers of deployment
      • CAT RFCs (AB, CN, NE, NW)
           - Initial hardware delivery in October 2008
           - Initial migration software and training in January 2009
           - Operational hardware delivery summer 2009
           - Parallel operations by October 2009


      • Remaining 9 RFCs
           - Initial hardware delivery in October 2009
           - Migration/Systems training – Fall 2009
           - Migration begins January 2010
           - Parallel operations by October 2010


     RFCs not required to drop NWSRFS until “fully ready”


Water Predictions
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                                                                  National Weather Service
                    Project Timeline




Water Predictions
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                        National Weather Service
                                                                           FEWS Hardware
                                                                             Infrastructure
                                              Client
                                            Client
                                          Client

                                                Operator Client
                                               Operator Client
                                             Operator Client


             Duty System                                                                               Standby System

                    Forecasting Shell     Master Controller                      Master Controller        Forecasting Shell
                    Server                Server                                 Server                   Server


                                            Master Controller                      Master Controller
                      Forecasting Shell          JBoss                                  Jboss               Forecasting Shell
                                                Tomcat                                 Tomcat




                      Forecasting Shell                                                                     Forecasting Shell




                            Etc                                                                                   Etc


                                          Database Server                        Database Server



                                                 Central                                Central
                                                Database                               Database
                                              (PostgreSQL)                           (PostgreSQL)




                                                                   Forecasting
Water Predictions                                                    Archive
                                                                  (PostgreSQL)
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                                                                                                       National Weather Service
                    Main Map Display




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                         National Weather Service
              Interactive Forecasting Display




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                                 National Weather Service
                    Time Series Modifier Display




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                                    National Weather Service
                    State Modifier Display




Water Predictions
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                              National Weather Service
                    Time Series Display




Water Predictions
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                           National Weather Service
                    Time Series Display
                         (Probabilistic)




Water Predictions
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                            National Weather Service
                    Time Series Display (ESP)




Water Predictions
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                                 National Weather Service
                    Time Series Editor




Water Predictions
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                          National Weather Service
                    Spatial Display (NWP)




Water Predictions
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                              National Weather Service
                    Spatial Display (Multi Sensor)




Water Predictions
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                                      National Weather Service
                    Spatial Display




Water Predictions
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                       National Weather Service
                    Spatial Display (Catchments)




Water Predictions
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                                    National Weather Service
                    Longitudinal Display




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                            National Weather Service
                    Web Server & Web Reports




Water Predictions
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                                 National Weather Service
                    Forecast Manager




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                         National Weather Service
               System Monitor (Log Browser)




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                                National Weather Service
                    Skill Scores Display




Water Predictions
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                            National Weather Service
                       Potential CHPS in
            Joint IWRSS (NOAA+USACE)
      USACE                                                                                           RFC 1
                                                                                                      CHPS
      District 1         • Model interoperability policy                                              Client
       CWMS                 – Collaborative development of                RFC 1          DB
       Server                                                             CHPS      Synchronization
                              adapters (CHPS) and plug-
                                                                          Server
                              ins (CWMS) for new models                                               RFC 1
                                                                                                      CHPS
      District 2                                                                                      Client
       CWMS
       Server                          National
                        DB              CHPS                 DB
                   Synchronization      Server          Synchronization
      District 3                 • RFC COOP                                                           RFC 2
       CWMS
                                 • Emergency Support                                                  CHPS
       Server
                                 • Geo-Intelligence Support                                           Client
                                     – Enterprise GIS                     RFC 2          DB
                                                                          CHPS      Synchronization
      District 4                    • Data Preprocessing (e.g. MAT)       Server
                                                                                                      RFC 2
       CWMS                         • Real time Intercomparison                                       CHPS
       Server                       • Real time Verification                                          Client
                                    • R2O Testbed (“Experimental RFC”)
                • District COOP     • Flash Flood Guidance
                • National Interoperability
                • Seamless access to USACE/NWS data
                •
Water Predictions Enhanced Geo-Intelligence Support
for             • National distribution of USACE WR information (now mandated)
Life Decisions
                                                                                   National Weather Service
                     Questions?




Water Predictions
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                    National Weather Service
                    Thank You

Water Predictions
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                           National Weather Service
                    Backup Slides




Water Predictions
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                      National Weather Service
                                National Research Council
                                                  Reports
      •    Assessment of Hydrologic and Hydrometeorological Operations and Services, (1996)
           - Recommends that the NWS develop a formal, long-term plan for hydrologic
              science research, which is part of an ongoing dialogue between NWS
              headquarters and its field offices as to the most appropriate research and product
              development for hydrologic services.
      •    Toward a new Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) (2006)
           - AHPS developers are encouraged to work closely with satellite precipitation
              groups to ensure that AHPS hydrologic requirements for precipitation are
              considered in other federal activities, such as the National Aeronautics and Space
              Administration’s Global Precipitation Measurement mission.
           - The NWS should strengthen quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and
              quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) for hydrologic prediction through an end-
              to-end evaluation that assesses QPE/QPF quality and impacts on flood and
              streamflow products for basins of diverse size and topography.
           - The NWS should strengthen connections between DMIP Phase I/DMIP Phase II
              and AHPS goals.
           - The NWS should clarify the criteria and decision–making process for selecting the
              next generation of hydrologic model(s) for AHPS, using an advisory group that
              involves modeling experts from inside and outside of the NWS to ensure that the
              state-of-the-art modeling advances are incorporated objectively into NWSRFS.
           - The NWS should invest in the next generation of NWSRFS that includes a flexible
              framework that allows alternative models, methods, or features that can be tested,
              verified, and implemented expediently. A total redesign of the NWSRFS is needed
              for AHPS to fulfill its scientific and technical goals.
Water Predictions
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                                                                  National Weather Service
                             National Research Council
                                               Reports
      •    Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for
           Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. (2006)
           - OHD should implement operational hydrology databases that span a
              large range of scales in space and time. The contribution of remotely
              sensed and onsite data and the associated error measures to the
              production of such databases should be delineated.
           - OHD should organize workshops with participation from all sectors of the
              Enterprise to design alternatives to the AHPS ensemble prediction
              system components and develop plans for intercomparisons through
              retrospective studies, demonstration with operational data, and
              validation, and for participation in testbed demonstration experiments.
           - OHD should develop methods for seamlessly blending short-term
              (weather) with longer-term (climate) ensemble predictions of
              meteorological forcing within the operational ensemble streamflow
              prediction system. This will require NCEP model output downscaling and
              bias adjustment, and real-time data availability.


Water Predictions
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                                                          National Weather Service
                                                                     Outline
                    Background and history
                    Why are we doing this?
                    What are we doing?
                    How are we doing it?
                    When will we do it?
                    Samples of existing interface displays


                    How can this mesh with USACE efforts?




Water Predictions
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                                                             National Weather Service
                          National Weather Service
                             River Forecast System
     Operates in 3 integrated modes.
      • Calibration     <== parameter estimation
      • Operational     <== short term deterministic forecasts
      • Ensemble        <== longer term forecasts




                                          MCP


                                   OFS              ESP
Water Predictions
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                                                                 National Weather Service
                                     NWSRFS
                                                            Ensemble Streamflow
           Calibration System (CS)                          Prediction System (ESP)
                    Historical
                    Data         Model                                               window
                    Analysis     Calibration               Hydrologic
    Historical
      Data                                                 And
                                 parameters,               Hydraulic
                    areal time   information
                    series                                 Models


                                                                         time
 Operational Forecast System (OFS)
                     Hydromet       Hydrologic/Hydraulic                        Statistical
                                    Models
   Real-Time         Analysis                                                   Analysis
   Observed                             short term
      and            observed           forecasts                               Probabilistic
    Forecast            and                                                     Predictions
     Data            predicted           current states
                      values




‘fs5 files’          Interactive     Interactive
                    Forecast         Adjustments
                    Program (IFP)
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                                                                 National Weather Service
                                                               NWSRFS - OFS

                    Stage                                                  User Interface
                                                                                                 HCL
                      III                                                                                  IFP
                                                                                                           except
                                                                                                           does not
                                                                                                           maintain
                                                                                                           C.O.
                                             MAPX
                                                Preprocessor                                    Forecast
       Data             Observed                  Functions                 Time                Function
       Entry               and                                              Series
                        Projected             MAP, MAT, RRS, etc             Data             FCEXEC
                          Data
                          PPDB                                               PDB


                                                                                Forecast
                              Preprocessor                                     Initialization
                                                        Preprocessor
                               Initialization                                and Maintenance
                                                         Parametric
                            and Maintenance                 Data                                    Forecast
                                                                                     FCINIT
                                                                                                   Parametric
                                    PPINIT                 PPPDB                                   & Carryover
                                                                                                      Data
                                                                       Reorder and
                                                                        Compress                       FCDB
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                                                                                   National Weather Service
                                  Development Time Line
     George Smith (NWS/OH) presented the IHFS (precursor to CHPS) at the April ‘96 DOH
     Workshop


     OHD initiated exploration in ’03
      • Infrastructure analysis
      • Several candidates considered including Delft-FEWS in Oct ’05


     CAT (CHPS Acceleration Team) formed at NHIC meeting in Jan ‘06 to accelerate pursuit
     of CHPS
      • AB, NC, NW volunteered to work w/ OHD. CN later drafted.
      • Criteria established through evaluation of NWSRFS strengths and weaknesses (Apex
        facilitation, available from HSEB)
      • Evaluate Delft-FEWS as a CHPS candidate




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                                                              National Weather Service
                                  Delft-FEWS Prototype
                                            Evaluation
     Initiated Oct ’06
      • Facilitated by OHD, Apex, RTi, and WL-Delft Hydraulics


      • NWRFC and NCRFC implementation
           - Strategy to include basic functionality (including SAC_SMA) but use
             surrogate FEWS models/functions/displays

      • Apr ‘07 (NWRFC) workshop to review results
           - “Very promising”, but more evaluation needed…
               » MODS-like capability
               » Client-Server application
               » Integration of SNOW-17
               » Displays with English Units



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                                                                 National Weather Service
                     FEWS Prototype Evaluation
     Follow-on work to address Apr ‘07 concerns
      • NW, NC, and AB RFCs. CN for ResSim project.
      • Dec ‘07 (NCRFC) workshop to review results
           -   Solid progress on MODs capability
           -   Client-Server demonstrated
           -   SNOW-17 integration easier than expected
           -   Display units mostly taken care of
           - ESP capabilities demonstrated and discussed
           - Followed by training on FEWS configuration

     FEWS is currently running and identically configured at AB, CN, NC, and NW RFCs.




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                                                             National Weather Service
                       CAT Recommendation
                    Approved by Gary Carter – January 17,

    Proceed with implementation of Delft-FEWS as the CHPS software infrastructure.

    Target operational use at all RFCs within 3 years.

    Resource implications
     • Major OHD focus
     • Terminate “dead-end” NWSRFS enhancements
     • Align/re-evaluate HSMB-oriented “Research to Operations” (RTO) projects


    Retain CAT with a revised implementation charter




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                                                              National Weather Service
                               Implementation Strategy
     Port models that require calibration
      •   BASEFLOW, SARROUTE, CONS_USE, LAG/K, LAY-COEF, TATUM,
      •   TIDEREV, MUSKROUT, RES-J, RSNWELEV, SNOW-17, CHANLOSS,
      •   STAGE-Q, SSARRESV, STAGEREV, UNIT-HG, RES-SNGL, SAC-SMA


     Create adapters for several new models (e.g. HEC-RAS)


     Rely existing data and display utilities with identified enhancements
      •   CLEAR-TS, CHANGE-T, ADD/SUB, SET-TS, MULT/DIV, NOMSNG, MERG-TS,
      •   MEAN-Q, WEIGHT-TS, LOOKUP3, LOOKUP, DELTA-TS, ADJUST-Q,
      •   ADJUST-H, ADJUST-T, PLOT-TS, PLOT-TUL




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                                                                    National Weather Service
                              Implementation Strategy
     Provide for forecaster run-time modifications
      •   IGNORETS, FMAP, SSARREG, MFC, RRICHNG, SWITCHTS, TSCHNG,
      •   CHGBLEND, WECHNG, RAINSNOW, RRIMULT, WEADD, TSADD, SACCO,
      •   AESCHNG, ROMULT, SETMSNG, UADJ, ROCHNG, UHGCHNG, SETQMEAN,
      •   UHGDATE, QCSHIFT, QPSHIFT, HECRAS


     Provide for existing level of ensemble operations, products, and services
      • Port ESPADP to use FEWS architecture and data resources




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                                                                  National Weather Service

				
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