NYC PlaNYC 508

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					A Greener Greater New York
Energy
 Executive Summary
Population and economic growth will strain the City’s energy
 infrastructure


Three challenges must be overcome to improve the
 consequences of growth


We’re recommending an aggressive, integrated plan that puts
 PlaNYC’s targets within reach


This recommended plan requires significant effort, capital, and
 political will, but over the long-run, would provide significant
 and measurable City benefits
   Topics for Discussion



1. The case for action – improving the long-term consequences of NYC’s
   growth on power and heat infrastructure


2. Challenges the City faces in reforming energy supply and demand


3. Our plan for achieving PlaNYC energy goals
As NYC grows, energy needs will increase
          New York City population forecast
                      Millions of residents
                       2005 - 8.2 million
                      2030 – 9.1 million


        Electrical capacity requirement forecast
                  Summer peak load, MW
                       2005 - 11,400

                       2030 - 14,700


           Electrical consumption forecast
                 Millions of MWh per year

                      2005 – 50 million

                    2030 - 14,700 million

          Heating fuels demand forecast
                 Million MMBtu per year

                   2005 – 422 million

                   2030 - 480 million
     Wholesale electricity costs will increase by ~60%
   NYC Power demand
   Millions of MWh
         Based on ConEd forecast Extrapolated projection based on historical growth

                  50% growth (2005-2030)
        Could represent a 125-175% increase in City power expenses alone (4% CAGR)




Wholesale power prices
$/MWh (nominal) – assuming constant real gas price after 2009
             Based on ICF forecast

                 60% growth (2005-2030)
            Extrapolated projection based on historical growth
and CO2 and other pollutants will increase
                       Assumptions

 Based on business as usual power and heating demand growth

                     Includes impact of
        Changing Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
            RGGI ~$4/ton carbon tax around 2010
            National carbon tax ~$10/ton by 2015

           Millions of metric tons of carbon


              Electricity and Building Fuels
                     From 2005 - 2030
Topics for Discussion


 1. The case for action – improving the long-term consequences of NYC’s
    growth on power and heat infrastructure


 2. Challenges the City faces in reforming energy supply and demand


 3. Our plan for achieving PlaNYC energy goals
    Reducing power prices and CO2 requires displacing
                    inefficient plants
Variable cost
$/MWh
Marginal cost producers – generally older, costly facilities set power price

Load factor
% of year in operation

Imports (incl. nuclear)



                     CCGT         Gas Steam       Oil Steam        Gas GT      Oil GT

  Average age,
                          7           43              39             24         37
      yrs**

  Total capacity,
                          2.4         2.8            2.0             2.0        1.0
        GW

  Capacity factor     76%            21%             29%            18%         5%

    Heat rate,
                      8,100         11,300          12,900         11,700      13,100
    Btu/kWh**
Power planning involves a maze of state and federal entities


   1.   New York State Energy Research and Development Authority
        (NYSERDA)
   2.   New York Power Authority (NYPA)
   3.   New York City Government
   4.   Con Edison
   5.   New York City Power Planning
   6.   New York State Public Service Commission (PSC)
   7.   Federal Regulatory Commission (FERC)
   8.   New York Independent Systems Operator (NYISO)
   9.   Power Plant Owners and Operators
Social & structural barriers limit widespread energy efficiency
                              Description                                Rationale



 Split incentives             Different parties “own” capital            “I won’t fund new appliances, my tenants
                              investments and savings                    reap all the savings!”


 Fragmentation of consumer    Consumers highly dispersed and
 base                         partially hidden behind master-meters


 Transaction costs/ Capital   Capital constraints on big-ticket          “Before I spend money on this, I need to
 constraints                  investments                                keep my business running”
                              Competing investment priorities


 Consumer education           Lack of information on energy efficiency “Who knows how much I can save with
                              programs                                 retro-commissioning?”
                              Low consumer awareness of CO2 impact


 Inconvenience                Bureaucratic challenges with funding       “Dinner for two is more expensive than
                              and contracting of work                    my monthly ConEd bill!”
                              Energy efficiency products are often not
                              the most convenient or readily
                              accessible


 Generational equity          Costs of climate change incurred by next
                              generation
Topics for Discussion


  1. The case for action – improving the long-term consequences of NYC’s
     growth on power and heat infrastructure


  2. Challenges the City faces in reforming energy supply and demand


  3. Our plan for achieving PlaNYC energy goals
        The Energy Plan

1      Improve Energy Planning – Establish a New York City Energy Planning
       Board
                                                                                        Modernize electricity delivery
    Reduce NYC’s energy consumption         Expand NYC’s clean power supply             infrastructure


2      Reduce energy consumption by         8 Facilitate repowering, construct          12 Accelerate reliability
       City government                        power plants and dedicated                   improvements to the city’s
                                              transmission lines                           grid
3      Strengthen energy building
       codes for NYC                                                                    13 Facilitate grid repairs
                                             9 Expand Clean Distributed
                                               Generation                                  through improved
  Create an energy efficiency                                                              coordination and joint
4 authority for NYC (NYCEEA)                                                               bidding
                                            10 Support expansion of natural
                                               gas infrastructure                       14 Support Con Edison’s
                                                                                           efforts to modernize the
    5 Prioritize five key areas for                                                        grid
      targeted incentives
                                            11 Foster the market for
6                                              renewable energy
       Expand peak load management



7 Launch an energy awareness
  and training campaign


       Key:        Energy Consumption      Energy Supply        Energy Infrastructure
The GreeNYC Campaign


   Change your light bulbs to CFLs
   Buy ENERGY STAR appliances
   Don’t air condition an empty room
   Unplug chargers and appliances when not in use
   Switch to green power through your energy provider
   Walk or take public transportation
   Recycle your glass, metal, paper and plastic
   Bring your own cloth bag to the grocery store
   Use green cleaning products
   Switch to paperless bank statements and online bill
   paying
A Greener Greater New York




               NEW YORK CITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION

				
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