>> GOOD MORNING

							>> GOOD MORNING.
WE ARE GOING TO GET STARTED.
I'M EDWARDO MONTAFLO.
A MEMBER OF THE STEP COMMITTEE.
AND TODAY WE HAVE A FORUM ON
GLOBAL WARMING, MORE THAN JUST
HOT AIR.
I'D LIKE TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
OTHER MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE.
JILL CARRINGTON, VALERY GORDON,
CHRISTOPHER HATCH, KELLY, LAURA
MOEN, VISHNU~PUROHIT AND
NANCY~SHINOWARA.
WHEN WE MET ABOUT A YEAR AGO TO
DECIDE ON THIS FORUM, WE DECIDED
TO GO ON THE PREMISE THAT GLOBAL
WARMING IS REAL, BASICALLY.
THAT MOST SCIENTISTS AGREE THAT
GLOBAL WARMING IS ACTUALLY
HAPPENING.
AND BASED ON THIS PREMISE, MODEL
PROJECTIONS SUGGESTED THAT
WEATHER CHANGES WILL EFFECT THE
WATER WE DRINK, THE AIR WE
BREATHE AND THE PLANTS AND
ANIMALS AROUND US.
BASED ON THIS INFORMATION, WE
DECIDED TO GET THE FOLLOWING
LIST OF SPEAKERS AND WE ARE VERY
PRIVILEGED AND HONORED TO HAVE
SOME DISTINGUISHED PANEL OF
SPEAKERS TODAY.
THE AGENDA FOR TODAY IS AT 8:35,
DR. PAUL EPSTEIN WILL GIVE AN
OVERVIEW ON HEALTH CONSEQUENCES
AND CLIMATE INSTABILITY.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED AT 9:10 BY
DR. STEVEN MORSE FROM COLUMBIA
UNIVERSITY WHO WILL SPEAK ABOUT
RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS.
AND THEN AT 9:50 WE'LL HAVE JOAN
ROSE SPEAKING ON THE
INTERSESSION BETWEEN WATER,
HEALTH AND CLIMATE.
THEN WE'LL HAVE A 15 MINUTE
BREAK FROM 10:30 TO 10:45.
AT 10:45, DR. RITA COLWEL WILL
SPEAK ABOUT CLIMATE, AND
INFECTIOUS DECEASES AND THEN AT
11:25, DR. LEWIS CRIS IS CAWILL
BE SPEAKING TO US ABOUT THE LINK
BETWEEN CARBON DIOXIDE, CLIMATE
CHANGE, PLANT BIOLOGY AND PUBLIC
HEALTH.
WE HAVE A LUNCH BREAK FROM
12:05-1 O'CLOCK.
HOPEFULLY ALL OF YOU WILL RETURN
AT 1:00.
AND AT 1:00, DR. COMPTON TUCKER
WILL SPEAK ABOUT THE USE OF
SATELLITE DATA TO PREDICT EBOLA,
RIVER AND CHICKEN GUNYAVIRUS
OUTBREAKS.
AND THEN, DR. KENNETH LITHICUM
WILL SPEAK ON THE IMPACT OF
GLOBAL CLIMATE ON RISK VALLEY
FEVER OUTBREAKS.
THEN AT 2:20, DR. EPSTEIN WILL
COME BACK AND GIVE CONCLUDING
REMARKS.
AT 2:30 WE WILL HAVE A PANEL
DISCUSSION.
DURING THE PANEL DISCUSSION, WE
DO HAVE MICROPHONES AVAILABLE
FOR EVERYONE.
BUT YOU CAN ALSO USE SOME CARDS
TO SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS THAT
ARE INCLUDED IN YOUR FOLDERS.
BEFORE WE GET STARTED, THERE IS
A FEW ADMINISTRATIVE ISSUES I
HAVE TO MENTION.
THE FIRST IS THAT THIS FORUM IS
BEING VIDEO CAST LIVE, SO BOTH
SPEAKERS AND PERSONS ASKING
QUESTIONS, PLEASE GO UP TO THE
MICROPHONE SO THAT PEOPLE THAT
ARE VIEWING ON THEIR COMPUTER
SCREEN CAN HEAR WHAT YOU HAVE TO
SAY.
THE SECOND IS, AFTER EACH
PRESENTATION, WE WILL ALLOW,
DEPENDING ON THE LENGTH OF THE
TALK, BETWEEN 5-10 MINUTES FOR
QUESTIONS.
PLEASE TRY TO LIMIT THESE
QUESTIONS AND CLARIFICATION
ISSUES.
OTHER QUESTIONS CAN ALWAYS BE
ASKED DURING THE PANEL
DISCUSSION.
FOR THOSE OF YOU THAT ARE
LISTENING ON VIDEO CAST, YOU CAN
SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AT
STEP@OD. NIH . GOV. AND WE WILL
TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS AND BRING
THEM UP TO THE SPEAKERS DURING
THE PANEL DISCUSSION.
FINALLY, BY DIRECTION OF THE
FIRE MARSHAL, PLEASE DO NOT
BLOCK THE ISLES.
MAKE SURE THAT THERE IS A CLEAR
PATH TO GET OUT.
AND ALSO, PLEASE TURN OFF OR PUT
YOUR CELL PHONES OR BLACK BERRYS
ON SILENT MODE.
AT THIS TIME, I'D LIKE TO
INTRODUCE OUR MODERATOR --
[LAUGHTER]
OUR MODERATOR FOR TODAY'S FORUM,
DR. PAUL EPSTEIN, THE ASSOCIATE
DIRECTOR FOR THE CENTER OF
HEALTH AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AT
HARVARD MEDICAL SCHOOL.
AND HE WILL BE THE MODERATOR FOR
THE ENTIRE FORUM.



PLEASE JOIN ME IN WELCOMING
DR. EPSTEIN.
[APPLAUSE]
>> THANK YOU EDWARDO AND THIS
ENTIRE TEAM AND ESPECIALLY CHUCK
SULLIVAN WHO PUT UP WITH US
SWITCHING AND CHANGING THINGS AT
THE LAST MOMENT.
WE HAVE A FULL DAY AND I THINK
IT WILL BE A RICH DAY GOING FROM
ZONES TO WATER TO OCEAN, BACK TO
LAND, DISEASES AND HOW CLIMATE
CHANGE CAN EFFECT THOSE DISEASES
EITHER IN TERMS OF VIRTUE OR IN
SURGENCE OR REDISTRIBUTION OF
THOSE DISEASES.
CLEARLY MANY FACTORS ARE
INVOLVED IN THAT.
YOU ARE ALL VERY AWARE OF THAT
IN TERMS OF GLOBAL CHANGE THAT
IS OCCURRING IN HABITAT AND SO
ON.
WE ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON CLIMATE
TODAY AND HOPE TO GET YOUR
INTERACTION.
SO WE SPECIFICALLY LAID OUT WE
HAVE THIS DISCUSSION AFTER EACH
TALK.
WITHOUT FURTHER ADIEU LET ME
LAUNCH INTO MY REMARKS.
I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE
FOR A MOMENT TO SET THE STAGE
AND THEN SOME OF THE OVERVIEW
AND THEN AT THE END, CONCLUDING
REMARKS, TALK ABOUT HEALTHY
SOLUTIONS AS WE DID AT
NIEHSYESTERDAY.
A WHOLE DISCUSSION OF HOW THE
HEALTH COMMUNITY GETS INVOLVED
IN SOLUTIONS SO WE DON'T END UP
WITH LOTS MORE PUBLIC HEALTH
PROBLEMS FROM ENERGY SOLUTIONS
AND THEIR UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES.
FROM WHOLE RESEARCH AGENDAS
THERE THAT WE'LL JUST TOUCH UPON
AT THE END.
THANK YOU.
 THANK YOU TO MIA.
THIS IS THE BASIC FINGERPRINT
WORK OF THE
ICC-- INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON
CLIMATE CHANGE REPORTS.
THE U.N
AUTHORIZE THIS HAS BODY IN 89 OR
88.
1990 WAS THE FIRST REPORT.
95 AND 2001 AND 2007.
THIS ACTUALLY WAS IN 2001.
I HAVE A POINTER HERE --
[INAUDIBLE] FINGERPRINT STUDIES,
WE HAVE THE EARTH HERE.
SO GLOBAL STUDIES ARE DIFFERENT
THAN CONTROLLED STUDIES.
WE REALLY DON'T HAVE A CONTROL
AND WE CAN'T REPEAT THE
EXPERIMENT.



SO THE PHYSICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
IS UNDERSTOOD THROUGH OUR
MODELS, OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW
THE EARTH WORKS AND THE
SUBSTANCE OF ENERGY AND THEN THE
DATA, DO THEY MATCH?
THAT'S THE BASIC FINGERPRINTS
THAT WE TRY TO ACCUMULATE,
FINGERPRINTS, UNTIL WE GET HOOF
BEATS.
HERE WE ARE WITH THE BASIC DATA
ON CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT IF WE
TOOK NATURAL FORCING ONLY, IN
OTHER WORDS, THE EARTH GOES
AROUND THE SUN, I'LL COME TO
THAT IN A MOMENT.
WE FIND A -- NOT A QUITE GOOD
EXPLANATION OF WHAT IS HAPPENING
IN THIS CENTURY.
IF WE LOOK AT ONLY WHAT HUMANS
HAVE DONE, WE DON'T QUITE MATCH
IT.
IF WE PUT THEM TOGETHER, WE GET
A VERY GOOD FIT.
THE POINT HERE IS THAT WHAT WE
SEE NOW AND ONLY THIS
BY -- ADDING NATURAL VARIABILITY
AND THE BASIC FINDING OF
GREENHOUSE GAGSES CHANGING THE
DYNAMICS.
WHAT ARE THE DYNAMICS?
JUST QUICKLY, THIS IS WORK OF A
MATHEMATICIAN WHO WAS IN PRISON
IN 1917 WHO CAME UP WITH THE
ANALYSIS OF THE EARTH'S BASIC
MOVEMENTS AROUND THE SUN.
3 ARE DOMINANT, THE WOBBLES,
CHANGES INO BLIQUITY,
EXENTRICITY AND A PRO ESSENTIAL
CHANGE THAT ARE REALLY KEY TO
HELP US UNDERSTAND WHY 11,000
YEARS AGO THERE WERE FORESTS IN
THE SAHARA DESERT AND NOW WE ARE
POINTING AT A DIFFERENT
DIRECTION WHERE THE SUN IS
BEATING INTO THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
AND WE SEE WE ARE IN A COLDER
PERIOD.
SO IT'S THOSE WOBBLES THAT HAVE
DRIVEN THIS BUT THE 3 CYCLES
TOGETHER IS WHAT IS DETERMINED
WHETHER WE ARE IN AN ICE AGE OR
A WARM AGE.
AND IT'S BIKELY FLAMED
EVERYTHING EXCEPT FOR VOLCANIC
ACTION -- WHICH LASTS FOR
SEVERAL YEARS.
COMPTON TUCKER WILL TALK ABOUT
THIS A LITTLE BIT IN TERMS OF
WHAT THE ICE SHOWS US BUT THIS
IS WHAT WE MEAN BY NATURAL
VARIABILITY.
IT BASICALLY EXPLAINS THE
EARTH'S TEMPERATURE UNTIL WE GET
TO THE 20th CENTURY.
AFTER THAT, WE CAN ONLY EXPLAIN
WHAT HAPPENED IN TERMS OF
CHANGES IN WARMING BY ADDING THE
FACTORS.
AGAIN, ALSO, WE ARE GOING TO
TALK AFTERWARDS BUT IF I SAY
ANYTHING THAT IS TOTALLY
UNCLEAR, PLEASE JUST SHOOT YOUR
HAND UP.
THAT IS VERY ACCEPTABLE.
NOW WE ALL HAVE HAD LOTS OF
INFORMATION ABOUT THE ICE.
I'M JUST GOING TO JUMP RIGHT
EXPHEAD SAY, WHY IS
CLIMATE -- JUMP AHEAD AND
SAY -- WHY DO MODELS APPEAR TO
BE CHANGING FASTER?
HERE WE HAVE 400,000 YEAR OLD
CORE.
WE HAVE IT BACK TO 720.
IN FACT, ABOUT TWO MILLION YEARS
AGO IS WHEN THE PANAMA WAS
CLOSED OFF AND THE GULF STREAM
GOT STARTED AND THAT'S PROBABLY
WHEN WE STARTEDOS LATING BETWEEN
LARGE POLAR CAPS AND
MEDIUM-SIZED CAPS.
SO HERE WE ARE, 180, 280.
WE ARE OVER 380 NOW.
ARE WE HEADED TOWARDS SMALL CAPS
OR EVEN A COLD RESERS
RESERS -- REVERSAL?
SO THIS IS THE BASIC FINDING
THAT WE ARE OUTSIDE THIS
ENVELOPE THAT WE PROBABLY HAVE
BEEN IN FOR TWO MILLION DOLLARS.
WHEN IT WENT TOO HIGH, TREES
GREW, WHEN IT WENT TOO LOW,
METHANE WAS RELEASED FROM THE
OCEANS.
WE DON'T UNDERSTAND ALL THE
MECHANISMS BUT SOMETHING IN THE
BIOLOGY HAS HELPED MAINTAIN
RELATIVE STABILITY FOR 2000
YEARS.
AND THEN WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS
PERIOD, THIS RECENT PERIOD, OF
10,000 YEARS.
THESE MODELS I SHOWED YOU ARE
ONLY DRIVEN BY CARBON DIOXIDE.
BUT WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE OTHER
GREENHOUSE GASSES THAT TRAP OUT
GOING INFRARED RADIATION.
THESE ARE THE MAIN ONES:
AND WATER IS ACTUALLY ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT.
SO HERE WE ARE WITH A WHOLE LOT
MORE TO DEAL WITH AND IF WE ADD
THEM UP, YOU CAN CALCULATE ABOUT
460 PARTS PER MILLION CARBON
DIOXIDE EQUIVALENT.
THE GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL OF
THE 4 OF THEM IS GREATER.
NOW THAT IS NOT THE WHOLE STORY.
WE HAVE THINGS THAT HAVE COME
AND GONE BUT THEY CAN REDUCE THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT BY REFLECTING
LIGHT, HEATING CLOUDS.
AND THEN A POSITIVE THING TO
MENTION, IT CAN ALSO ABSORB HEAT
LIKE CO2 AND ALSO LAND AND SNOW
AND REDUCE DEFLECT ACTIVITY.
SOME OF THIS IS, WE DON'T REALLY
KNOW WHERE WE ARE, BUT WE ARE
PROBABLY A LOT GREATER THAN THAN
380 PARTS PER MILLION.
THAT MAY BE WHY OUR MODELS ARE
NOT REALLY REFLECTIVE OF WHERE
WE ARE.
WHERE ARE WE?
WELL, WE ARE SEEING ICE MELTS
ACCELERATING.
WE ALL HAVE BEEN HEARING ABOUT
THAT.
THIS IS CLEARLY AN ISSUE FOR ICE
SHELVES THAT ARE IN WATER.
ICE SHEETS ON LAND WHEN WE LOSE
THEM, CAN RAISE SEA LEVELS.
SO ICE IS MELTING AND ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT DOES IN SIBERIA AND
NORTHERN CANADAA IS RELEASE
METHANE.
SO THEY ARE THE POSITIVE
FEEDBACKS.
THIS IS THE ISSUE FOR SEA LEVEL
RISE AS I MENTIONED, ICE SHEETS,
PRIMARILY AND ICE SHEETS NOW,
SOME OF THE OUTLET GLACIERS ARE
GOING AT 14 KILOMETERS A YEAR
AND THEN GOING TO 7 KILOMETERS A
YEAR IN 2001.
SO WE ARE REALLY SEEING AN
ACCELERATION AS THE SALTWATER
GOES DOWN TO THE BASE AND
LUBRICATES THE BASE AND WE ARE
SEEING MOVEMENT OF ICE SHEETS IN
NONLINEAR WAYS THAT WE HAVEN'T
REALLY THOUGHT ABOUT, PERHAPS
JUST A DECADE AGO.
AND HERE WE ARE DECREASED EL
NINO -- IT IS THE REFLEK
ACTIVITY AND FOR THE WHOLE EARTH
IT'S ABOUT 30% FIT GOES DOWN TO
29.1 FOR EXAMPLE, WE DON'T
FINISH THAT'S ANOTHER TRIGGER
POINT THAT MIGHT ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO A POSITIVE FEEDBACK.
BECAUSE LESS ICE MEANS MORE HEAT
GOING INTO THE OCEAN, LESS BEING
REFLECTED.
AND THEN, MELTING ICE ALSO
RELEASES WATER VAPOR AND
GREENHOUSE GAS.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF ISSUES
HERE WE REALLY HAVE TO CONSIDER
IN TERMS OF UNDERSTANDING
DYNAMICS.
UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS,
WE'RE GOING TO JUMP RIGHT INTO
THE OCEAN.
RITA IS GOING TO TAKE US THERE
IN A LITTLE BIT.
BUT THIS IS THE BASIC DATA FROM
NOAH AND THE DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE.
THE OCEANS COMPARE THE CONT
COMMENTS GLAISERS AND ABSORBED
22 TIMES AS MUCH HEAT AS THE
EARTH'S SURFACE AND AS THE
ATMOSPHERE -- THIS IS FROM ALL
THE ARRAY THAT IS WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO PUT THIS SINCE 1957,
WHICH IS THE FIRST IGY .
SO THIS IS DATA NOW OVER 50
YEARS.
AND THIS IS THE REPOSTOURS OVER
THE LAST CENTURY -- REPOSTORYS.
NOT THE ATMOSPHERE.
WHAT WE ARE GOING TO GET IS
DETERMINED BY THE BUILDUP IN THE
OCEAN.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, IT'S ONE PART OF
THIS.
THE OCEANS TURN OVER AND THEY
BURIED SOME OF THIS.
AND THIS CHANGES THE HIDE
LOGICAL CYCLE.
IT MEANS THERE IS MORE WARMING
OVER LAND, EVAPORATION, MORE DRY
AREAS, TEMPORIZES OVER LAND.
WE ARE SEEING IT ACCELERATE.
WATER IS WARMING ESSENTIALLY.
EXCUSE ME.



WATER, WHICH MAKES OUR LIVES
POSSIBLE IS CHANGING.
WATER IS WARMING, ICE IS MELTING
AND WATER VAPOR IS RISING AND
THAT IS CHANGING WEATHER
PATTERNS ON LAND.
HERE WE ARE WITH TEMPERATURES
GOING UP, WE SEE THAT REFLECTED
IN THE PRESSURES.
AS WE SEE WARMING, HOT AIR
RISES, PRESSURES COME DOWN, WIND
COMES IN, THE BASIC PHYSICS OF
MODELS AND TEMPERATURE,
PRESSURE, WIND, WEATHER.
AS WE SEE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE
OVER LAND AND IN THE OCEAN, WE
SEE CHANGES IN PRESSURE
GRADEIENT.
THAT'S WHAT DRIVES THE WEATHER.
NOW AS WE SEE WINDS CHANGE, AND
I WILL SAY HERE, WHAT OF THE NEW
FINDINGS?
THIS IS USUALLY -- HERE WE HAVE
SEVERAL THAT ARE -- THE
CONCLUSIONS YOU'RE ALL AWARE OF.
IF THE WINDS CHANGE, THE WINDS
ABOUT BOTH POLES.
THE WEST MID LATITUDES, HIGH
LATITUDE, CHANGING.
THIS IS THE MOST OM NOWS SIGN OF
INSTABILITY -- OMINOUS
SIGN -- THAT WE REALLY
CONCLUDED.
BEING CHANGED BY WHAT IS
HAPPENING AT THE POLES AND THIS
IS EFFECTING WIND STORMS IN
EUROPE, ALSO EFFECTING DROUGHT
PATTERNS IN AUSTRALIA.
IT HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR WEATHER
AND HEALTH.
PRESIPITATION OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S., FOR EXAMPLE.
HERE WE HAVE MORE WATER VAPOR IN
THE ATMOSPHERE.
RAIN HAS GONE UP 7% SINCE 1970.
TWO INCHES A DAY.
14%.
THAT IS A THRESHOLD FOR EVENTS
AND YOU'LL HEAR FROM JOAN ROSE
ABOUT THAT.
BUT WE ARE SEEING A 20% RISE IN
FOREST.
IT'S THE HEAVY RAIN EVENTS
BECAUSE OF THE WATER IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.
WE HAVE A PUSH AND PULL.
THE WATER IS WARMING AND
EVAPORATES FASTER.
A WARM ATMOSPHERE HOLDS MORE
WATER.
FOR EVERY ONE DEGREE IT WARMS UP
IT HOLDS 6% MORE WATER.
SO IT WILL PUSH AND PULL IT AND
MEANS WE CAN HAVE MORE DROUGHT
BECAUSE IT STAYS UP THERE AND
IT'S WARM.
BUT WHEN WE HAVE RAIN, IT COULD
COME DOWN IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT
WHICH HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
WATER BORNE DISEASES AND RODENT
BORN DISEASES.
THIS IS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WE HAVE SEEN IN
MUMBAI IN 2005.
ABOUT A METER IN A DAY.
HERE WE HAD SOME EVENTS IN OUR
OWN COUNTRY HERE WITH 12-14 FEET
SNOWS IN BUFFALO.
THIS WAS A REMARKABLE EVENT
BECAUSE THERE WAS NO FREEZING.
THERE WAS SUCH A WARM JANUARY,
YOU MAY REMEMBER LAST JANUARY,
THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE A FREEZING
IN THE GREAT LAKES.
SO WE GOT AN EXTRA SNOW EVENT.
SO WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE
COMPOUNDING ISSUES.
WARMING THEN PUNKIATED BY A
FRONT.
THIS IS THE KIND OF THING WE
HAVE TO LOOK AT NOT JUST THE
EXTREMES BUT THESE SEQUENCES OF
EXTREMES, BECAUSE IT'S THE WARM
DROUGHT PERIODS PUNK WAITED BY
HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN DESTABILIZE
THE ECK LOGICAL SYSTEM
AND -- ECK LOGICAL SYSTEM.
AND THEN THERE IS THE LAST PIECE
ON THIS.
THIS IS FROM NASA, THE MOTOR
SATELLITE.
THIS IS THE ICE SHELVES THAT
WENT IN 10 DAYS.
AGAIN, THAT DOESN'T RAISE SEA
LEVELS.
WHAT IT DOES DO IS JUST AS SAND
ON A BEACH, WHEN IT'S LOST, THE
DUNES ARE MORE VULNERABLE TO
COME DOWN.
WHEN YOU TAKE SHELVES DOWN, IT
TAKES THE BACK PRESSURE OFF THE
ICE AND THE GLAISERS ON LAND CAN
START MOVING FASTER.
AGAIN, ANOTHER DIMENSION OF
INSTABILITY AND HERE AS
SCIENTISTS, WE DON'T OFTEN THINK
ABOUT THE WHOLE SYSTEM, BUT WE
HAVE TO BEGIN THINKING ABOUT
RATES OF CHANGE, NOMLIES,
EXTREMES, AND SIGNS OF
INSTABILITY.
AND WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO
PROJECT EXACTLY WHAT CAN HAPPEN
IN TERMS OF TRIGGERS.
WHAT WE MAY HAVE SOME SENSE OF
CONDITIONS IN THE SYSTEM THAT
THEY CAN -- MAKE IT MORE
VULNERABLE.
SO THAT IS THE BAD NEWS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS UNSTABLE
SYSTEMS CAN BE DESTABILIZED AND
WE WILL COME TO THAT.
SO HERE IS THE FINGERPRINTS.
THESE ARE THE 3 FINGERPRINTS.
AND THESE ARE 3 THAT ARE
IMPORTANT TO BIOLOGY.
NIGHTTIME AND WINTER
TEMPERATURES GOING UP TWICE AS
FAST AS OVER ALL WARMING.
THIS IS IMPORTANT FOR HUMANS IN
TERMS OF HEAT WAVE.
IT'S IMPORTANT IN TERMS OF OVER
WINTERING.
MANY ISSUES IN BIELGY AND
AGRICULTURE AND SO ON.
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES.
WE ARE ALSO SEEING MORE WARMING
AT HIGH ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE
POLES.
SO BOTH TEMPORAL AND SPACIALY WE
ARE SEEING THIS IN CANADA
TOWARDS THE ARTIC.
THAT HAS IMPLICATIONS AS WE LOOK
AT LIME DISEASE.
WE ARE SEEING MORE NIGHTTIME AND
WINTER TEMPERATURE WARMING IN
THIS AREA AND AT THE POLES.
SO WE HAVE A REAL DISPORE
PORTION AT WARMING GOING ON THAT
MAY HELP EXPLAIN SOME OF THE
BIELG CALL -- BIOLOGICAL
RESPONSES.
AND FINALLY, AS WE SWITCH -- AS
THE MEAN GOES UP, WE'LL SEE MORE
EXTREMES THIS.
CURVE IS PROBABLY A VERY
INACCURATE REPRESENTATION.
IT MAY BE MUCH MORE LIKE THIS.
WE REALLY DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS.
BUT WE ARE SEEING MORE COLD
PERIODS, MORE WARM PERIODS.
SO IN FACT, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T
JUST BEHAVE LIKE A BELL-SHAPED
CURVE AS IT WARMS.
IT'S CHANGING BEHAVIOR.
AND WE ARE SEEING WIDER SWINGS.
AND THIS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING.
I WAS JUST IN VIETNAM FOR A
CONFERENCE ON OCEANS AND
CLIMATE.
AND THEY HAD A DRASTIC COLD
PERIOD 38 DAYS IN JANUARY AND
FEBRUARY THAT KNOCKED OUT THEIR
RICE CROP, AQUACULTURE.
SOME OF THE REPTILES IT HAS HUGE
ECONOMIC AFFECTS.
IT'S VERY STRANGE.
WE KNOW WE HAVE HAD SOME
VARIABILITY.
THAT'S THE KEY ISSUE.
THE COLLEGE OF INFECTIOUS
DISEASES IS THE FOREFRONT OF
DEVELOPING RESEARCH ON THIS
ISSUE.
SOME BASICS CONCEPTS.
OUR STRATEGIES RAPIDLY INCREASE
THEIR NUMBERS RAPIDLY REPRODUCE.
THESE ARE THE LITTLE ONES, THE
MICROBES, THE VECTORS TEND TO BE
OUR STRATEGY OPPORTUNITIES.
IT'S THE STRATEGISTS THAT LEVEL
OFF WHEN THEY USED UP THEIR
RESOURCES OR GENERATE WASTE AT
THE PARTICLE LEVEL.
HUMANS ARE KING STRATEGISTS.
WE HAVEN'T QUITE LEARNED TO
LEVEL OFF EVEN THOUGH WE ARE
GENERATING WASTE.
AND IT'S THIS MISMATCH THAT HAS
TO DO WITH INFECTIOUS DISEASES
IN MANY WAYS.
IT'S THE PREDATORS THAT HELP
CONTROL THE PRAY.
IT PREVENTS THEM FROM CARRYING
PATHOGENS.
THIS IS A BASIC CONCEPT AS WE
LOOK AT THESE MEASURES.
PREDATOR, PREY, HABITAT CHANGE,
TOO MUCH OF ORGANIC DPLIEWT
ENTS.
-- GLUTE ENTS.



IT TURNS OUT RODENTS CAN -- THEY
CAN SPRAY SO MUCH FOR MALARIA
THEY KILL THE CATS IN THE AREA.
WHEN THEY REALIZED THIS,IBLYIAN
FEVER SETTLED DOWN.
SO IT'S THIS MISMATCH AND
MATCHING THAT NEEDS TO BE
CONTROLLED IN INFECTIOUS
DISEASES.
IN TERMS OF WARMING.
SO WARMING AFFECTS THE RANGE OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASE.
IT'S THE WEATHER THAT AFFECTS
THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
OUTBREAKS.
HERE IS SOME BASIC GEOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION.
THIS IS THE SPOTS ON EARTH WITH
GLACIERS, AND YOU'LL HEAR MORE
ABOUT THIS FROM TUCKER.
BUT HERE IS THE WARMING WE ARE
SEEING ACROSS THE GLOBE.
THERE ARE A FEW THAT ARE
SOMEWHERE THAT ARE CREATING BUT
AS I MENTIONED WITH
THESE -- HERE WE ARE WITH UPWARD
PLANT MIEIGRATION.
YOU'LL NOTICE THE PATTERN.
SO THESE ARE KEY AREAS AND AS WE
LOOK AT INFECTIOUS DISEASES, AND
VECTORS, WE ARE SEEING THE SAME
THING.
FINGERPRINTS.
BIOLOGICAL FINGERPRINTS, MODELS
TELL US THEY WILL WARM GREATER
AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND
ALTITUDES.
HERE WE ARE SEEING THE PHYSICS
OF THE GLACIERS AND THE PLANTS
AND ANIMALS.
VARIABILITY IS THE KEY ISSUE FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE.
VARIABILITY IS OFTEN THE NOISE
AROUND THE SIGNAL.
CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL CHANGE,
VARIABILITY HAS BECOME A SIGNAL.
BECAUSE IT'S THE SEQUENCES OF
EXTREME.
THEY DESTABILIZE.
THE KIND OF WARMING WE ARE
SEEING IN JANUARY, AND PEOPLE
SNIFFLING AND CONJURNGHTITIS IS
MORE RELATIVE THAN LAST YEAR, WE
ARE SEEING CHANGES IN FRUITING
TREES AND MAPLE SYRUP IN VERMONT
AND UP IN CANADA.
THERE IS THE ISSUES FOR TIMING
FOR AGRICULTURE OF HERBA VOARS
AND POLLINATING AS WELL AS THE
PREDATORS, LADY BUGS THAT COMEIN
AND TAKE CARE OF SOME OF THE
BIRDS AND SO ON.
AND SO THE FOOD SECURITY ISSUES
AND THEN THERE ARE ISSUES WITH
THE AVIAN FLU IN TERMS OF COLD
AND WARM THAT HAVE AFFECTED
PATTERNS IN MIGRATION THAT WE
UNDERSTAND LITTLE OF ON THESE
ISSUES IN TERMS OF SPREADS.
SO HERE WE ARE WITH THE EXTREMES
FOR A MOMENT.
THESE ARE CLUSTEREDDERS.
THIS WAS DURING THE EL
NINO -- CLUSTEREDDERS.
98.
THE STRONGEST OF THE CENTURY.
WHAT WE DID WAS MAP RODENT BORN,
WATER BORNE, INSECT BORN,
DISEASES AND SURE ENOUGH, THEY
WERE DIRECTLY COINCIDING WITH
NOT JUST THE RAIN BUT ALSO
DROUGHT AND YOU'LL HEAR ABOUT
THIS OCCURRING WITH DROUGHT.
PEOPLE STORING WATER AND SO ON.
MOZAMBIQUE WHERE I LIVED FOR
SEVERAL YEARS.
HERE WE ARE IN 2000.
5 FOLD INCREASE IN MALARIA.
EXTREMES AND UPSURGES ARE
SOMETHING WE ARE SEEING MORE OF.
DECKY FEVER NOW IS GETTING A BIG
BOOST FROM THE HEFTY RAINS GOING
ON NOW.
THEY MAY NOT HAVE STARTED THAT
WAY BUT IT'S ADDING TO IT.
2007 IS SIMILAR.
WE LOOKED AT WEST NILE DISEASE
AND BY TRYING TO UNDERSTAND THE
PATTERN OF ST. LOUIS IN
SELFITIS, THAT HELPED LOOK AT
THE -- WHAT WAS HAPPENING TO THE
WEATHER AND WEST NILE.
AND ST. LOUIS IN CEPHALITIS WAS
THE SAME CYCLE, BASICALLY THE
SAME CYCLE, APPEARED IN THE DUST
BOWL AND FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL
DECADES, WOULD COINCIDE WITH THE
DROUGHT INDEX ON WEATHER
SERVICE.
AFTER 76, LOTS OF THINGS CHANGED
AND PATTERNS CHANGED.
THIS IS WHAT GAVE US A SENSE OF
MAYBE DROUGHT WHERE THINGS COULD
GROW WELL WITH A LITTLE WATER
AND MIGHT BE GETTING A BOOST FOR
WEST NILE.
WE LOOKED AT WEST NILE, WE JUST
HAVE KINGS REPORTS IN BOGOTA,
RIS REALLY, U.S
2002 IT WAS SO WARM AND DRY,
THERE WAS NO SNOW IN THE ROCKIES
AND THAT'S WHY WEST NILE RACED
ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN 44 STATES
AND 5 CANADIAN PROVINCES.
THIS IS AGAIN NOW ONCE IT'S
ESTABLISHED, THERE ARE DIFFERENT
VECTORS, DIFFERENT WILDLIFE
ISSUES ONCE IT'S ESTABLISHED.
THE DROUGHT MAY HELP US EXPLAIN
EXPLOSIVE OUTBREAKS AND
APPEARANCE OF THIS DISEASE IN
YOUR CITY.
HERE WE ARE WITH LIME DISEASE,
THE COMPLEX DISEASE.
WE HAVE ECOLOGICAL REASONS FOR
IT.
LOTS OF DEER, FEW PREDATORS OF
DEER.
WE HAVE SOCIAL REASONS AND THIS
IS HOW THE CDCCALLS THE LOOP AND
LOLLIPOP DEVELOPMENT WHICH
EXPOSES FRAGMENT HABITATS.
AND THEN WE HAVE CLIMATE ISSUES.
SO HERE IS A MODEL GOING FORWARD
TO 22080, WHICH SHOWS THE AREA
CONDUCIVE TO -- SO THOSE ARE THE
3 WORDS.
CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE TO, THEY
ARE KEY.
WE CAN'T ALWAYS PROJECT WHERE
MALARIA WILL BE OR WHAT MOVEMENT
HAS TO DO WITH IT.
BUT THIS IS THE ENVELOPE WHERE
IT COULD EXIST.
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SIGNS OF
MORE TICKS IN MAINE.
THESE ARE REPORTED.
WE HAVE SEEN SOME IN CANADA.
ARE WE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE?
ARE WE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE JUST AS
WE MENTIONED?
BEFORE WE HAVE MORE WARMING IN
WINTERS.
ARE THEY EFFECTING THE
BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES?
THE CDCLOOKED ACROSS BIOLOGICAL
RESPONSES AND FOUND ABOUT 8,000
BITS OF DATA THAT REFLECT
WARMING IN TERMS OF BIRD, FISH
MIGRATION AND SO ON.
OTHER BIOLOGICAL RESPONSES AS
WELL.
THIS WILL WIND IT DOWN HERE.
WE SEE A GENERAL TREND.
WE SEE A SIGNAL, EL NINO
SOUTHERNOSALATION, WARM PERIODS,
LOTS OF BLEACHING.
WHAT WE HAVE DONE HERE AT THE
NIH IS WORK SHOWING THAT THIS
INDEED IS KNOW INFECTIOUS
DISEASE AND THE COMPONENT AS
WELL THAT THE SPECIES
CONTRIBUTES TO THE INFECTION,
DECREASES IMMUNITY.
BOTH OF THOSE ARE TEMPERATURE
DEPENDENT AND WHEN IT GOES OVER
THE THRESHOLD, WE SEE ALLERGY
THAT ARE PROVIDING THE PHOTO
SYNTHESIS.
SO HERE AGAIN, YOU'LL HEAR MORE
ABOUT THIS FROM RITA COLWEL
ABOUT BIOLOGY AND FUNCTION AND
IT'S A VERY INTERESTING
QUESTION.
SHE WAS ASKING IT YESTERDAY.
PHIS ANOTHER ISSUE FOR CORPSAL.
IT'S NOW .1 DOWN BUT IT'S 30%
BELOW PREINDUSTRIAL LEVELS.
THAT HAS TO DO WITH CALCIUM.
IT HAS TO DO WITH RECOVERY
ABILITY FROM BLEACHING.
IT HAS TO DO WITH BASICALLY
OSTEOPROSIS OF THE CORAL REEFS.
THIS IS AN ISSUE FOR CALCIUM
CONTAINING ANIMALS IN THE SEA,
LOBSTERS, CRABS, SMALL PLANKTON
AND SO ON.
SOME HAVE CALCIUM.
AND THEN THERE IS AN ISSUE FOR
MEDICINES FROM NATURE AND THIS
IS WORK ALSO DONE HERE.
THEY ARE NOT ADDICTING.
THEY LIVE IN CORAL REEFS.
SO IF WE LOSE CORAL REEFS, WE
LOSE MEDICINES AND THE SOURCE OF
MEDICINES AS DIRECT MEDICAL
CONSEQUENCES.
SO FINALLY, AND THIS IS THE
FINAL THING.
WE NOW HAVE SOME MORE QUESTIONS
FOR ALL OF YOU AND I DON'T HAVE
ANSWERS.
BUT THESE BATS AND FROGS, LET'S
THINK FOR A MOMENT.
THESE WE KNOW WE HAVE A BIG
PROBLEM WITH.
VIRUSES THAT PERHAPS WITH
IMMUNITY TISSUES.
BATS GETTING DISEASES IN MY NECK
OF THE WOODS IN THE NORTHEAST.
AGENTS AND THE ENVIRONMENT.
AGENTS AND THE HOST AND THE
ENVIRONMENT.
CLEARLY IT'S NOT AN OR.
IT'S ANAND.
WE HAVE TO UNDERSTAND WHERE THE
AGENTS AND SO ON FIT IN WITH
HOST IMMUNITIY AND FIT IN WITH
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CHANGING
AND WE WANT ALL THE FACTS THAT
CONTRIBUTE.
SO, THIS IS JUST A BUNCH OF
QUESTIONS FOR YOU THAT I THINK
ARE KEY INDICATORS OF WHAT IS
GOING ON.
THERE ARE FUNCTIONAL
IMPLICATIONS, ALL OF THESE
THINGS HAVE ROLES, POLLINATION,
MOSQUITO CONTROL, SO THESE ARE
ISSUES NOT JUST IN AN AREA, BUT
ALSO SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF
CONTROLS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE
AND AGRICULTURE.
SO FINALLY, I'M GOING LEAVE WITH
YOU THIS.
IN STUDYING THIS, WE HAVE TO DO
A LOT MORE THAN BENCH WORK.
WE HAVE TO DO A LOT MORE THAN
EVEN MATHEMATICAL MODELING.
HERE ARE SOME OF THE THINGS WE
DO TO STUDY GLOBAL CHANGE.
WE HAVE TO MONITOR AND MAP AS
WELL AS MODEL.
WE NEED OUR GISs TO OVERLAY
DATA SO WE GET CORRELATIONS TO
LATER STUDY.
WE HAVE TO LOOK AT TRENDS AND
DATA AND WE MAY HAVE TO
AGGREGATE DATA IN TERMS OF THE
OCEAN, WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH
HUMAN DISEASE.
BUT WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH FISH,
WITH SEAURE CHINS, MAMMALS, WITH
SEA BIRDS.
WE HAVE TO LOOK ACROSS THESE TO
UNDERSTAND WHERE THERE ARE IN
TERMS OF GEOGRAPHICAL AND AS
WELL AS TEMPORAL.
WARM YEARS, COLD YEARS.
DERIFFATIVES OF TRENDS.
IF WE ARE SEEING INCREASES, WE
HAVE TO SEE HOW THEY CAN BE
INDICATORS OF CHANGE.
WE HAVE TO DO PATTERN
RECOGNITION AS WE LOOKED AT WITH
THE MOUNTAINS.
FINGERPRINTS, AS I MENTIONED,
ANALYSIS, WE HAVE TO USE WHAT WE
KNOW.
JUST PRIOR PROBABILITIES.
WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO
DO ALL THE RESEARCH THAT WE NEED
FORWARD.
WE HAVE TO USE WHAT WE ALREADY
KNOW TO ALSO MAKE ADVICE AND
UNDERSTAND BETTER.
HERE WE ARE.
WE HAVE TO MODEL NEW EVENTS.
WE ARE SEEING HURRICANES IN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IN BRAZIL IN
TERMS OF CLIMATE.
VIETNAM HAD TROPICAL CYCLONE
THAT IS CHANGED THEIR PATH IN
THE SOUTHERN PART.
THESE ARE WHAT THEY ARE TELLING
US ABOUT CLIMATE ITSELF.
PROBABILITY ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS
IS A WHOLE NEW BUNCH OF SCIENCES
NOW TO LOOK AT HEAT WAVES.
THE HEAT WAVES OF 2003 AND
EUROPE.
NOW CALCULATED TO BE 2-4 TIMES
AS MORE PROBABLE WITH CLIMATE
CHANGE.
SO THESE ARE THE KINDS OF THINGS
THAT MY FRIENDS IN THE INSURANCE
WORLD AND SOME OF THE LAWYERS
WANT TO KNOW ABOUT, LIE BUILTY
AND SO ON, IT HAS IMPLICATIONS
FOR HOW WE UNDERSTAND AND HOW
THE SOLUTIONS GET DRIVEN.
AND FINALLY, CLUSTER AND
PRINCIPLE COMPONENT ANALYSIS AS
WE LOOK AT DATA ACROSS SYSTEMS.
AND THEN THAT IS THE
EQUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE
MODEL.
SO WE HAVE TO USE A FULL RANGE
OF SCIENCE TO UNDERSTAND GLOBAL
CHANGES AND CLIMATE CHANGE.
I WANT TO END WITH THAT AND TAKE
A DRINK AND TAKE A BREAK.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.



[APPLAUSE]



ANY QUICK ARROWS OR COMMENTS AND
QUESTIONS?



GREAT.
WE REALLY DO GO ON TIME HERE
THIS.
IS MARVELOUS.
ALL RIGHT.
OUR NEXT PRESENTER AT 9:10:00
A.M. IS SOMEONE WHO PROBABLY
NEEDS NO MAJOR INTRODUCTION.
STEVEN MORSE, BIOLOGICAL ISSUES
FOR MANY YEARS, WORKED WITH JOSH
WHO RECENTLY PASSED AND I HOPE
TO HAVE A TRIBUTE TO HIM IN
SCIENCE MAGAZINE A COUPLE OF
MONTHS AGO AND PART OF THE
EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE ON
THE PANEL FORUM ON INFECTIOUS
DISEASES.
IT'S A GREAT PLEASURE.
STEVEN MORSE.
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.



[LOW AUDIO]
THANK YOU ALL VERY MUCH FOR
COMING TODAY AND I'M DELIGHTED
TO BE IN SUCH DISTINGUISHED
COMPANY IN EVERY MANAGEINABLE
WAY.
I HAVE TO TELL YOU THAT THERE IS
GOOD NEWS.
I WAS LISTENING TO THE RADIO
THIS MORNING AND NOW OUR
PRESIDENT SAID WE HAVE UNTIL
2025 TO SOLVE THIS PROBLEM
[LAUGHTER]
SO, I DON'T WANT TO TAKE AWAY
YOUR MOTIVATIONS BUT --
[LAUGHTER]
FOLLOWING ON WHAT PAUL TALKED
ABOUT, I JUST LIKE TO SAY A FEW
WORDS, THOSE OF YOU WHO KNOW ME,
KNOW THAT'S AN IRONIC TERM ABOUT
SOME OF THE EMERGING INFECTIONS
AND OTHER INFECTIONS THAT ARE
LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY CHANGES
IN CLIMATE.
AND OF COURSE, WE THAN
INFECTIOUS DISEASES, WHICH IS
GOING TO BE THE ACCESS TODAY AND
FOR MY TALK, REMAINS A MAJOR
CAUSE OF DISEASE AND DEATH.
YES, WE HAVE TAKEN IT FOR
GRANTED IN MANY PARTS OF THE
WORLD.
BUT IN MOST OF THE WORLD, THIS
IS STILL AN IMPORTANT ISSUE.
AND THEN OF COURSE, WE
DISCOVERED OVER THE YEARS LIKE
WHAT WE CALL EMERGING SECTIONS
OR WHAT I ORIGINALLY CALL IN
TERMS OF VIRUSES, EMERGING
VIRUSES, APPEAR FROM IT SEEMS,
OUT OF NOWHERE AND I'LL COME
BACK TO THAT IN A MOMENT.
AND THEN FOR INFECTIONS, TB, FOR
EXAMPLE, DIPHTHERIA IN EASTERN
EUROPE.
SUDDENLY IT REAPPEARS AS A
RESULT OF DEFICIENCIES IN PUBLIC
HEALTH MEASURES THAT HAD KEPT
THEM UNDER CONTROL.
SO, IN A FORMAL SENSE, I WOULD
DEFINE EMERGING INFECTIONS AS
THOSE THAT ARE RAPIDLY
INCREASING IN INCIDENT, THE
NUMBER OF NEW CASES, OR IN
GEOGRAPHIC RANGE.
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW OF THEM
DEPENDING ON WHICH LITERATURE
SEARCH YOU WANT TO DO.
PETER DASH ALSO WORKED ON THE
KIT RICK FUNGUS AND SOME
COLLEAGUES AT COLUMBIA, WHICH
WORKS ON CLIMATE AND OTHER
GEOLOGICAL ISSUES, RECENTLY
IDENTIFIED PERHAPS 4 IN THE
INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE REPORT
FROM 1992, CAME UP WITH A
SIMILAR FIGURE IN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DECADES, THINGS WE
HASN'T HEARD ABOUT BEFORE.
I'M SURE THEY EXISTED IN MOST
CASES, BUT WE DIDN'T KNOW ABOUT
THEM FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
AND OFTEN THESE ARE NOVEL
PREVIOUSLY UNRECOGNIZED
DISEASES.
YOU ARE GOING TO HEAR ABOUT
QUITE A FEW TODAY IN VARIOUS
CONTEXT.
AND IT TURNS OUT, VERY OFTEN THE
ENEMY IS OUT HERE.
VERY OFTEN YOU HEARD ABOUT A FEW
CAUSES ALREADY.
SUCH AS CHANGES IN PREDATOR
DISTRIBUTION OR CHANGES IN AG
CULL -- AGRICULTURAL.
THIS IS A SLIDE I BORROWED FROM
OUR FREPPED, TONY
FAUCI -- FRIEND -- SHE DIRECTOR
OF NIAID.
AND THIS IS SIMPLY A MAP SHOWING
VARIOUS EXAMPLES OF EMERGING AND
REEMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DECADES.
SOME OF THEM WERE KNOWN BEFORE
RIFT VALLEY FEVER, WHICH YOU'LL
HEAR ABOUT LATER.
OTHERS WERE DISCOVERED, IF
THAT'S THE WORD, IN THE LAST
30-40 YEARS, SUCH ASEE BOWL
ALOSS OF FICHE IS AN INTERESTING
ONE -- EBOLA -- LOSS OF
FICHE -- I GOT TO READ THE
NOVEL, THE ANDROMEDAE STRAIN
TWASN'T UNTIL YEARS LATER WE
FOUND OUT WHEN I BECAME A
VIROLOGIST, IT WAS BASED ON AN
OUTBREAK OF LOSS OF FICHE,
PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN BUT QUITE
SCARY.
FEVER -- IN AFRICA.
THAT OCCURRED IN THE LATE
1960s AND BY COINCIDENCE, SOME
OF THE VICTIMS, THOSE WHO
SURVIVED ENDED UP BEING TREATED
AT COLUMBIA FOR REASONS THAT I
WON'T GO INTO BUT THAT ARE
THEMSELVES VERY INTERESTING.
AND WE HAVE PULMONARY SYNDROME,
WHICH I'LL SAY A FEW WORDS
ABOUT.
SARS AND MANY OTHERS THAT HAVE
APPEARS ONLY RECENTLY AS HUMAN
DISEASES.
SO WE HAVE A VERY RICH CAST OF
CHARACTERS.
WHAT CAUSES THIS TO HAPPEN?
OF COURSE ALL OF US WHO READ THE
ANDROMEDAE STRAIN OR SEEN THE
MOVIE THAT INDICATES PROBABLY A
CERTAIN AGE, THINK ABOUT THE
ANDROMEDAE STRAIN.
IN FACT, THERE WERE WELL-KNOWN
SCIENTISTS, ONE NOBEL WINNER WHO
DIED A FEW YEARS AGO, WHO
ACTUALLY BELIEVED -- AND I USED
TO GET LETTERS PUBLISHED IN
NATURE ON EYE REGULAR BASIS
EVERY TIME SOMETHING NEW CAME
AROUND, THAT THIS HAD FALLEN
FROM SPACE.
WE KNOW THE REALITY IS ACTUALLY
MUCH CLOSER TO HOME.
THE MYSTERIOUS INTRODUCTION OF
THESE PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN TO
HUMAN MEDICINE OR TO WESTERN
MEDICINE INFECTIONS, USUALLY IS
A RESULT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGES OR CHANGES IN THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HUMANS AND
THE ENVIRONMENT THAT ALLOWED
PREVIOUSLY SEE QUESTERED OR
PREVIOUSLY UNRECOGNIZED
INFECTION TO ENTER THE HUMAN
POPULATION.
AND YOU KNOW, THERE ARE MANY
POSSIBILITIES BUT LUCKILY FOR
US, I SAY LUCKILY, BECAUSE WE
ARE ALL STILL HERE, AT LEAST
MOST OF US.
EXCEPT THOSE OF US LIKE ME WHO
ARE STILL ASLEEP.
BUT WE ARE STILL HERE, AT LEAST
OUR BODIES ARE.
AND THE REALITY IS THAT THIS
WOULDN'T BE TRUE OF COURSE IF IT
WEREN'T FOR THE FACT THAT THE
INTRODUCTION STEP, ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE MANY POSSIBILITIES
S-OFTEN NOT SUCCESSFUL IN
ESTABLISHING A NEW HUMAN
DISEASE.
BUT WE DO SEE THIS HAPPENING.
HIVIS PROBABLY THE MOST NOTABLE
EXAMPLE THAT AWAKENED US FROM
COMPLACENCY.
SOME 20 YEARS AGO.
AND THIS WAS SUCCESSFUL FOR A
VARIETY OF REASONS IN
ESTABLISHING AND DISSEMINATING
ITSELF WITH OUR HELP THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD.
SO MANY ARE CALLED AND THERE ARE
MANY CANDIDATES OUT THERE.
LUCKILY FOR US, FEW ARE CHOSEN.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT EMERGING
INFECTIONS, IT TURNS OUT WE KNOW
SOME BASIC THINGS ABOUT THEM.
THEY ARE NOT THE ANDROMEDAE
STRAIN.
THEY ARE JUST, IN MOST CASES,
SIMPLY INFECTIONS OF OTHER
SPECIES THAT HAVE HAD THE
OPPORTUNITY TO EXPLORE THE HUMAN
BODY AS WELL AND SOMETIMES IT'S
TO THEIR LIKING AND SOMETIMES IT
ISN'T.
EBOLA IS AN EXAMPLE OF ONE THAT
IS NOT EASILY TRANSPITTED
TRANSPITTED -- TRANSMITTED.
IT HAS A NATURAL RESERVOIR AND
SUCH MAMMALS AS BEST
PROBABLY -- BATS.
BUT THAT'S THE BEST EVIDENCE
RIGHT NOW.
SO IT DOESN'T MATTER IF THE
VIRUS GETS INTO HUMAN BEINGS AND
KILLS US BECAUSE AFTER ALL, THEY
HAVE A NATURAL LIFE CYCLE IN
NATURE THAT MAINTAINS THEM.
AND THAT'S IMPORTANT TO
UNDERSTAND BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY
EBOLA IS A NONSTARTER IN TERMS
OF A WORLDWIDE EPIDEMIC.
HIVKILLS MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND
THAT GAVE US MANY MORE
OPPORTUNITIES TO SPREAD AND IT'S
DONE SO VERY SUCCESSFULLY.
THAT TOO PROBABLY CAME FROM
CHIMPANZEES, QUITE POSSIBLY FROM
THE BUSH ME TRADE.
ALTHOUGH WE DON'T HAVE ANY
SMOKING GUNS OR EVEN SMOKING
MEAT IN THIS RESPECT TO PROVE
IT.
SO WHAT I LIKE TO CALL THE 0
NOTTIC POOL, IS A VERY DEEP AND
RICH SOURCE OF POTENTIAL
EMERGING PATHOGENS.
AND AS I MENTIONED, VARIOUS
CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT MAY
INCREASE HUMAN CONTACT WITH
HITHERTO UNFAMILIAR INFECTIONS
AND JUST IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT
STATISTICALLY, THIS INCREASES
THE CHANCE OR FREQUENCY OF
INTRODUCTION AND THE CHANCES
PERHAPS THAT SOME NEW INFECTION
PREVIOUSLY UNKNOWN TO MOST OF US
WILL GAIN ENTRY AND SOMEHOW
MANAGE TO SUCCEED IN THE HUMAN
POPULATION.
RARE AS THAT IS, THE MORE
OPPORTUNITIES THERE ARE, THE
MORE POSSIBILITIES OBVIOUSLY OF
THIS HAPPENING.
THERE ARE MANY OTHER SOCIAL
CHANGES, WHICH I'LL SAY MUCH
LESS ABOUT, I WILL SAY A FEW
WORDS, SUCH AS THE INCREASING
MOVEMENT FROM RURAL AREAS TO
CITIES THAT INDEED MAY INCREASE
THE SPREAD OF PREVIOUSLY
ISOLATED DISEASES.
SO, DISEASES LIKE HIV OR LIKE
AIDS AND THE VIRUS, HIV MAY HAVE
HAD POCKETS IN NATURAL, FAIRLY
UNSETTLED AREAS THROUGHOUT
AFRICA.
COLLEAGUES BELIEVED THAT HIV WAS
INTRODUCED INTO THE HUMAN
POPULATION PROBABLY NOT ONCE BUT
POSSIBLY AS MANY AS 8 TIMES,
WHICH IS REALLY AMAZING WHEN YOU
THINK ABOUT IT.
HOWEVER, IT WAS THE MOVEMENT OF
ESPECIALLY YOUNG MEN FROM THE
REMOTE AREAS WHERE THEY MAY HAVE
PICKED UP HIV INTO CITIES WHERE
THEY NOW HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
SPREAD IT TO MANY OTHERS WHICH
DIDN'T EXIST BEFORE.
AND THOSE ARE -- THAT'S AN
INCREASING MOVEMENT, RURAL TO
URBAN MIGRATION AND URBANIZATION
WHICH BASICALLY CONTINUES TO
INCREASE LARGELY FOR ECONOMIC
AND SOMETIMES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
REASONS.
AND OF COURSE, WE ALL KNOW NOW
ABOUT THE ROLE OF FOOD ANIMALS
IN THIS RESPECT SIMPLY BECAUSE
OF H5N1 AND THE FACT THAT IT'S
BASICALLY IF YOU'RE A CHICKEN,
VERY, VERY BAD NEWS.
I MEAN, WE THINK IS THIS GOING
TO BE THE NEXT PANDEMIC FOR THE
CHICKENS ESSENTIAL IT ALREADY
IS.
FOR CHICKEN FARMERS, THOSE WHO
WORK OCCUPATIONALLY WITH POWELL
TREE, IT IS ALSO A
DANGER -- POULTRY -- FOR
OCCASIONAL ACQUISITION.
AND WE ALL SORT OF HOLD OUR
BREATH AS LONG AS WE CAN SINCE
THIS IS A RESPIRETORY DISEASE,
WONDERING, IS IT GOING TO MAKE
THE LEAP INTO HUMAN TO HUMAN
TRANSMISSION.
SO FAR, IT HASN'T.
BUT WE ALL KNOW THAT ANOTHER
INFLUENZA PANDEMIC IS MORE OR
LESS INEVITABLE.
THERE HAVE BEEN 3 IN THE LAST
CENTURY VARYING IN SEVERITY AND
WE ALL KNOW.
I HAPPEN TO BE A LITTLE FIX 8OD
INFLUENZA AT THE MOMENT.
AND THE REASON
IS -- FIXIATED -- OF ALL THE
EMERGING INFECTIONS, MY FRIEND
AND LATE COLLEAGUE, HOWARD, ONE
OF MY OLD PROFESSORS, USED TO
SAY, IT'S CHEATING TO SAY THAT
INFLUENZA IS AN EMERGING
INFECTION.
BUT OF COURSE IT HAS ALL THE
CHARACTERISTICS.
WE GET NEW INTRODUCTIONS, WE GET
EVOLUTION OF THE VIRUS AND WHEN
IT IS CAPABLE OF HUMAN TO HUMAN
SPREAD, I DON'T NEED TO TELL
WHAT YOU IT CAN DO.
BUT NOBODY CAN PREDICT THIS WITH
ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY.
AND THOSE EXPERTS WHO TRIED AS
IN THE 1976 WHEN THEY THOUGHT
THERE WAS A PANDEMIC, THE
SUBJECT OF A FAMOUS BOOK BY
RICHARD AND HARVEY, NOW THE
PRESIDENT OF THE INSTITUTE OF
MEDICINE, CALLED THE PANDEMIC
THAT WASN'T.
I GOT MY INFLUENZA SHOT IN 1976
JUST IN CASE.
BUT THE REALITY IS, IT NEVER
HAPPENED AND WE STILL DON'T
FULLY UNDERSTAND IT.
SARS OF COURSE FOCUSED A LOT OF
ATTENTION ALSO ON THE ROLE OF
FOOD ANIMALS.
SO, THAT SAN INCREASINGLY
IMPORTANT AREA TO THINK ABOUT.
SO WHAT I WANT TO DO WITH MY
REMAINING SOMEONE'S TO GIVE YOU
A LITTLE BIT OF
INTRODUCTION -- MINUTES -- TO
EMERGING INFECTIONS AND GIVE YOU
A FEW EXAMPLES OF HOW THEY MAY
BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE IN WAYS
THAT ARE OFTEN NOT AS OBVIOUS AS
WE MAY THINK.
SO AS I MENTIONED, MANY OF THE
CHANGE THAT IS ALLOW PREVIOUSLY
UNRECOGNIZED INFECTIONS TO
INCREASE THEIR RANGE OR TO BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE HUMAN
POPULATION, INVOLVE THESE
CHANGES VERY OFTEN AGRICULTURE,
FOOD HANDLING PRACTICES, I
MENTIONED THOSE, FOOD ANIMALS
WITH SARS, H5 NONE AND OTHER
INFLUENCAS AND -- H5N1 AND
CHANGES IN WATER ECOSYSTEMS.
WE TAKE IT FOR GRANTED BUT IT IS
ALMOST A GIVEN THAT IF YOU PUT
IN NEW DAMS, SOMING THE WORLD
BANK LOVES TO DO BECAUSE IT
INVOLVES A LOT OF CONSTRUCTION,
YOU HAVE AN INCREASE IN VECTOR
BORN MOSQUITO BORN DISEASES.
NOW, IT'S NOT QUITE THAT SIMPLE.
BUT WHEN THE JAMMA DAM WAS PUT
IN ALONG THE SENEGAL RIVER IN
SENEGAL IN AFRICA, WE SAW AN
ENORMOUS INCREASE, SEVERAL
HUNDREDS OF CASES OF SOMETHING
CALLED RIP VALLEY FEVER, WHICH
THE NAME SEEMS TO ORIGINATED IN
FEDERAL AFRICA AND SUDDENLY WE
HAVE HUNDREDS OF CASES IN WEST
AFRICA.
ALL THANKS TO THE JAMMA DAM
WHICH BY THE WAY WAS AN
ENVIRONMENTAL DISASTER IN A
NUMBER OF WAYS.
AND SO, THE SAME HAPPENS WITH A
WORM INFECTION THAT HAS AN
INTERMEDIATE HOST IN SNAILS AND
MANY OTHER.
SO WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL
OBVIOUSLY ABOUT THE FULL RANGE
OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECOLOGICAL
CHANGES, INCLUDING CLIMATE
CHANGES FOR WHICH I'LL GIVE YOU
A FEW EXAMPLES.
ONE PROBLEM WITH CLIMATE CHANGE
AND ITS EFFECT ON INFECTIOUS
DISEASES IS THAT THESE CHANGES,
LIKE THE DISEASES THEMSELVES,
HAVE COMPLEX ECOLOGYIES, THEY
ARE MULTIFAKITORIAL AND OF
COURSE THE PEOPLE WHO LIKE TO BE
CLIMATE CHANGE DENIERS OR
CLIMATE DENIERS, WILL SAY, WELL,
HOW DO YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO
HAPPEN?
MAYBE WE'LL HAVE MALARIA BACK IN
THE UNITED STATES, YES WE ONCE
HAD IT.
AND I'LL SHOW YOU SOME OTHER
EXAMPLES.
AND MAYBE WE'LL HAVE MALARIA IN
CANADA.
BUT MAYBE ON THE OTHER HAND,
MALARIA WILL BE ELIMINATED FROM
TROPICAL AFRICA AND WE'LL
SUDDENLY HAVE WONDERFUL TROPICAL
FRUIT PRODUCTION IN CANADA.
AND ALL OF THAT DEPENDS ON WHAT
SCENARIO OF CLIMATE CHANGE YOU
WANT TO BELIEVE IN.
AND WE DON'T KNOW EXACTLY WHAT
IS GOING TO HAPPEN.
HOWEVER, I THINK THERE IS A LOT
OF SCIENTIFIC CONSENSUS AS YOU
SAW FROM PAUL EPSTEIN'S TALK,
THAT CLIMATE IS CHANGING.
THAT CLIMATE CAN BE EXPECTD TO
CHANGE WHETHER FOR NATURAL OR AS
MANY OF US SUSPECT, ATH ROWGENIC
REASONS, THAT WE OUGHT TO BE
MORE AWARE OF AND GET OUR HEADS
OUT OF THE PER VERBAL SAND
BEFORE WE ARE ALL SIMPLY COVERED
IN SAND.
AND THAT, THERE ARE A LOT OF
POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING ON YOUR
EXACT SCENARIO.
THAT INCLUDES CHANGES IN RANGE
OR PREVALENCE OF A NUMBER OF
DISEASES.
CHANGES IN SEASONALITY.
SEASONALITY IS SOMETHING WE ALL
TALK ABOUT AND LIKE THE WEATHER,
NONE OF US REALLY UNDERSTAND.
AS I DISCOVERED WHEN A STUDENT,
A GRADUATE STUDENT IN ONE OF MY
CLASSES ASKED ABOUT SEASONALITY
AND I GAVE HIM A GLIB ANSWER.
AND SAID, A LOT ARE FAMOUS
REVIEWED BY SO AND SO AND WENT
TO FIND IT, SINCE I FELT I HAD
TO GIVE HIM THE REFERENCE, ONLY
TOW DISCOVER THERE WAS NO DECENT
REVIEW ON SEASONALITY.
AND WE ARE STILL WORKING ON
UNDERSTANDING THIS.
SO SOMETHING IS SIMPLE AS WHAT
WE THINK THE SEASONALITY WITH A
STABLE CLIMATE IS A HARD NUT TO
CRACK.
LET ALONE, AND TO REALLY
UNDERSTAND.
MOST OF WHAT THE UNDERSTANDING
IS INFLUENCE APROBABLY BASED ON
A VERY FLIMSY FOUNDATION.
AND I MENTIONED MOVEMENT FROM
RURAL AREAS TO CITIES.
SO WHAT ARE SOME OF THE POSSIBLE
CONSEQUENCES?
ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS PEOPLE
WILL LOOK FOR IS THE DANGER SIGN
AND MALARIA AT HIGHER ATITUDES
IN EN DEMIC AREAS.
IF YOU HAVE WARMING, YOU CAN
EXPECT TO SEE MOSQUITOES THAT
CARRY MALARIA AND OTHER VECTOR
BORN DISEASES, FINDING HIGHER
ATITUDES WHICH NORMALLY ARE
COLDER AND LESS HOSPITABLE, MORE
PROMISING.
AND THAT IS ONE MARK THEY'RE
PEOPLE ARE OFTEN THINKING ABOUT
LOOKING FOR AND AS OFTEN BEEN
MENTIONED.
WE CAN EXPECT A CHANGE IN
DISTRIBUTION OF OTHER VECTOR
BORN DISEASES WHICH ARE OFTEN
VERY SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AND WE

WILL HEAR A GREAT DEAL ABOUT
THAT WITH DR. LITHICUM AND
OTHERS LATER TODAY.
CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANGES
IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD ANIMAL
USE WHICH MAY HAVE SOME OF THE
CONSEQUENCES I ALREADY HAVE
DISCUSSED.
AND IF AGRICULTURE BEGINS TO
FAIL AS A RESULT OF CHANGES IN
CLIMATE, RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE
AND SO ON, AS WE ALREADY HAVE
BEEN SEEING AS AGRICULTURE
FAILED IN PARTS OF SUB SA HEROIN
AFRICA, AND
ELSEWHERE -- SUBSAHARAN
AFRICA -- AS IT IS, 2025 COMES
UP AN AWFUL LOT IN PEOPLE'S
ESTIMATES.
I DON'T KNOW WHY.
IT USED TO BE 2020.
BUT THE U.N
ESTIMATES THAT BY 2025, MOST OF
THE WORLD'S POPULATION WILL BE
LIVING IN CITIES.
WHEN I WAS BORN, I WAS BORN IN
NEW YORK CITY.
ONE OF THE FEW IN DISPUTABLY
MEGACITIES OF THE WORLD.
TOKYO, MOSCOW AND LONDON USED TO
CLAIM EQUALITY IN POPULATION.
NOW THERE ARE AT LEAST A DOZEN
CITIES, MOSTLY IN DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES, BANCOCK, MEXICO CITY,
LAGOSAND MANY OTHERS, THAT ARE
FAR LARGER IN POPULATION, EVEN
OFFICIALLY THAN NEW YORK, LONDON
AND MOSCOW OR TOKYO.
SO I'LL GIVE YOU JUST A FEW CASE
STUDIES VERY, VERY BRIEFLY.
AND HERE THEY ARE.
A NUMBER OF THE OTHER TALKS IN
THIS SYMPOSIUM WILL GO INTO
THESE EXAMPLES IN FURTHER
DETAIL.
WELL, YELLOW FICHE HAS BEEN ONE
OF THE GREAT SUCCESS STORIES
YOU-ALL KNOW ABOUT WALTER REED
AND HOW IT WAS POSSIBLE TO DIG
THE PANAMA CANAL ONLY BECAUSE OF
THE CONQUEST, IF WILL YOU, OF
YELLOW FEVER IN THIS AREA.
I'M AT COLUMBIA MEDICAL CENTER
AND AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MEDICAL
CENTER THERE IS A PLAQUE TO TWO

PEOPLE WHO WERE INVOLVED IN THIS
EFFORT, ODDRA, WHO LATER WENT ON
TO BECOME SURGEON GENERAL
GENERAL AND A LES LUCKY
INDIVIDUAL, JESSE, WHO WAS A
MEDICAL STUDENT AT COLUMBIA
PHYSICIANS AND SURGEONS AT THE
TIME AND DIED AS PART OF AN
EXPERIMENT IN YELLOW FEVER
TRANSMISSION.
SUBSEQUENTLY, YELLOW FEVER
THROUGH STRENUOUS EFFORTS WERE
ELIMINATED BY CONTROLLING THE
VECTOR IN MUCH OF LATIN AMERICA.
BUT NOT ERADICATED.
SINCE THEN, PEOPLE HAVE BECOME
COMPLACENT, COMPLACENCY BEING
ONE OF OUR GREATEST ENEMIES, I
THINK, AND IT HAS COME BACK.
IN SPACE YOU CAN SEE ALL OVER
MANY PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA,
YELLOW FEVER HAS STAGED A
RESURGENCE ALONG WITH ITS VECTOR
WHICH HAS BEEN THE REAL
REASON&WE ALL WONDER, INDIA IS
ONE OF THE FEW TROPICAL AREAS
THAT HAS BEEN SPARED.
THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, YELLOW
FEVER AND WE WONDER HOW LONG IT
WILL BE BEFORE THAT GETS IN
THERE.
WE OFTEN FORGET THAT THE UNITED
STATES ACTUALLY HAD BOTH YELLOW
FEVER AND MALARIA NOT ADDS BADLY
AS AFRICA, AND THAT IN FACT, WE
HAD QUITE A FEW PLACES AS FAR
NORTH AS BOSTON THAT SUFFERED
FROM YELLOW FEVER, REPORTED IN
COLONIAL TIMES.
THE LAST OUTBREAK IN THE U.S.
WAS NEW ORLEANS.
POOR NEW ORLEANS.
THESE WERE PREKATRINA DAYS OF
COURSE.
IN 1905.
SO WE NEEDENT BE COMPLACENT THAT
IT CAN'T HAPPEN HERE.
IT CERTAINLY CAN.
ONE THAT DID HAPPEN HERE WAS THE
RATHER FAMOUS HAUNTA VIRUS
PULMONARY SYNDROME.
AND I'M SORRY THAT SOME OF OUR
COLLEAGUES, LIKE JAMIE CHILDS
AND OTHERS, CAN'T BE HERE TODAY
TO TALK ABOUT THIS EXAMPLE.

BUT FOR THOSE WHO THINK OF THE
REVENGE OF THE RAIN FOREST, MY
FRIEND, RICHARD PRESTON WROTE A
BOOK, CALLED THE HOT SEWN, AND I
DISAAGREE -- ZONE -- WITH HIS
LAST CHAPTER ABOUT THE REVENGE
OF THE RAIN FOREST.
IT'S NOT JUST THE RAIN FOREST.
IT'S ANY AREA OF UNTAPPED
BIODIVERSITY.
AND EVEN SOME PLACES APPARENTLY
BORING AND ARID AS THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH IT'S A FUN
PLACE TO LIVE, IS CAPABLE OF
GIVING US SURPRISES.
AND THIS PULMONARY SYNDROME,
WHICH IS ALL VERY WELL-KNOWN,
WAS WAY BACK IN 1993 IN THE 4
CONERS REGION OF THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST.
AND LET'S SEE -- CAN WE GO BACK?
YES.
AND IT TURNED OUT THAT A NUMBER
OF PEOPLE WEPT INTO EMERGENCY
DEPARTMENTS -- WENT -- IN THIS
AREA AND ONE CLINICIAN FOUND A
FAMILY THAT ALL HAD THE SAME
MYSTERIOUS DISEASE.
THE STATE HEALTH DEPARTMENT
LATER CDC, CAME IN AND COULD
VERY RAPIDLY ELIMINATE THE
OBVIOUS SUSPECT LIKE PLAYING,
YES THERE IS A LITTLE POCKET OF
PLAGUE HERE LEFT OVER FROM THE
IMPORTATION OF PLAGUE AT THE END
OF THE 19 CENTURY FROM ASIA.
AND COULD RULE OUT A NUMBER OF
OTHER OBVIOUS THINGS.
AND FINALLY IDENTIFIED THIS
RATHER WIN SOMLOOKING CREATURE,
KNOWN AS THE WHITE FOOTED DEER
MOUSE AS MY FRIEND FORMERLY AT
THE CDC, SAYS, HARDWORKING
TYPICAL SINGLE MOM.
[LAUGHTER]
AND THAT'S WHY SUCH A SUCCESSFUL
RODENT.
THE COMMON RODENT IN THE WHOLE
AREA.
BUT IT ALSO HAPPENS TO CARRY
THIS VIRUS THAT CAUSES THE
DISEASE WE NOW KNOW AS HAUNTA
VIRUS PULMONARY SYNDROME.
A RELATIVE, COMMON FIELD MOUSE
IN ASIA, CARRIES THE DISEASE WE
USED TO KNOW AS KOREAN
HEMORRHAGIC FEVER.
AS BIG A SURPRISE WHEN IT WAS
FOUND.
AND IT TURNS OUT THAT IT'S BEEN
HERE ALL ALONG.
IT'S JUST THAT THERE WERESOME
SPORADIC CASES WE NEVER NOTICED
IT UNTIL IT WAS A BIG CLUSTER.
AND WHAT CAUSED THAT BIG CLUSTER
WAS PROBABLY FIRST OF ALL, THE
FACT THAT THERE HAD BEEN MANY
YEARS OF DROUGHT WHICH LED TO A
RODENT CRASH FOLLOWED BY A VERY
WET AND WARM WINTER AND SPRING
LEADING TO A DOCUMENTED, THANKS
TO THE NATIONAL SCIENCE
FOUNDATION, RODENT POPULATION
EXPLOSION.
INCLUDING THE ROAD ENT THAT IS
CARRIED THIS PARTICULAR
VIRUS -- RODENT -- AND ONCE
PEOPLE STARTED LOOKING WITH A
DIAGNOSTIC TEST, IT WAS FOUND TO
BE FOUND EVERYWHERE.
LITERALLY EVERYWHERE.
RELATIVES HAVE BEEN FOUND ALL
OVER THE NEW AND THE OLD WORLD,
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT AFRICA, TO THE
BEST OF OUR KNOWLEDGE.
ANOTHER EXAMPLE IS NEAPA VIRUS.
WHICH SUDDENLY APPEARED IN
MALAYSIA AND SOME OTHER PLACES
IN THE LATE 90s CAUSING
SERIOUS DISEASE IN PIGS, DOGS
AND THEN HUMANS ON FARMS.

AND IT TURNS OUT TO HAVE LED
JUST LIKE THE H5N1 INFLUENZA
TODAY, TO A MASSIVE CALLING
ATTEMPT TO CONTROL IT, IN THIS
CASE A LOT OF PIGS IN MALAYSIA
THAT CARRIED IT.
AND WHERE DID IT COME FROM?
IT'S NATURALLY CARRIED BY THIS
RATHER INTERESTING CREATURE, THE
SO-CALLED FLYING FOX OR FRUIT
BAT, WHICH OCCURS IN NUMBERS, IF
ANY OF YOU HAVE BEEN IN SIDNEY,
YOU SEE RELATED SPECIES FLYING
AROUND THE SIDNEY HARBOR BRIDGE
AT NIGHT.
THE WAY WE ARE USED TO SEEING
PIGEONS OR SEAGULLS IN OTHER
PLACES.
AND THEY ARE ACTUALLY VERY CUTE
AND HARMLESS EXCEPT FOR THE FACT
THAT THEY EXCRETE VIRUSES LIKE
NEAPA VIRUS.
AND IT TURNS OUT, MY COLLEAGUE,
PETER DASHA BELIEVES THAT DURING
THE BURNING OF FORESTS IN
INDONESIA, WHOLESALE IN THE LATE
1990s, THESE BATS WERE FORCED
OUT OF THEIR NATURAL HABITAT,
HERE ARE SOME FLYING FOXES, AND
BROUGHT INTO THE AREA OF NEAPA
WHERE NEAPA CAN NOW BE FOUND IN
MALAYSIA AND NOW BANGLADESH.
APPARENTLY CARRIED ON THE WINGS
OF THESE BATS AND THE FECES.
AND URINE THEY LEFT BEHIND IN
FARMING AREAS WHERE THEY FOUND A
MORE HOSPITABLE HOME.
EVEN DISEASES AS MUNDANE BUT
WORLDWIDE ASTHMA NINJA COCKAL
MENINJITIS IS CLOSELY RELATED TO
CLIMATE.
IT'S INDEMNIC IN A CERTAIN PART
OF SUB SAHARAN EEK WAITORIAL
AFRICA.
AND OUTBREAKS ARE COMMON DURING
THE DRY SEASON LARGELY FOR HOST
FACTOR REASONS AND THEN STOP
BECAUSE THE RAINY SEASON SEEMS
TO HYDRATE THE NASAL PASSAGES.
THIS IS A DISEASE USUALLY SOME
PEOPLE CARRY BUT CAN ALSO SPREAD
TO OTHERS AND IT CAN BE QUITE
SERIOUS.

WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF THERE WERE
PROLONGED DROUGHT?
PROBABLY IT WOULD PROLONG THE
PERIOD OF LOCAL MENINJITIS
OUTBREAKS CONSIDERABLY AND ALSO
ACCELERATE THE MOVEMENT OF
PEOPLE TO CITIES LEADING
PROBABLY TO THE CONDITIONS FOR
EVEN MORE CASES OF MENINJITIS.
IS THERE A FAMOUS CASE BY MY
FORMER COLLEAGUE, PAT MOORE AND
U.N
CHAN NOW IN PITTSBURGH.
PAT MOORE SHOWING WHEN HE WAS AT
CDC, THE MOVEMENT OF MA NINJA
COCKEL MENINJITIS FROM AFRICA TO
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WORLD
THROUGH THE ANNUAL PILGRIMAGE IN
MECCA.
INFLUENZA IS ONE WE OFTEN DON'T
THINK ABOUT, BUT IT HAS A KNOWN
SEASONALITY IN THE UNITED
STATES.
WE CAN SEE A NUMBER OF DISEASES
THAT ARE SEASONAL IN TEMPERATE
AREAS BUT THE MOST INTERESTING
THING IS THAT IN TROPICAL AREAS,
AND SUBTROPICAL AREAS, INFLUENCA
DOESN'T SHOW THE SAME
SEASONALITY.
EVERYONE IN HONG KONG KNOWS IT
SHOWS TWO PEAKS, ONE IN THE
WINTER LIKE US AND ONE IN THE
SUMMER, WHICH EVEN THEY DON'T
UNDERSTAND.
AND THAT IN OTHER PLACES LIKE
TROPICAL REGIONS, THE LIMITED,
VERY LIMITED DATA WE HAVE SO FAR
SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY YEAR AROUND
TRANSMISSION OR POSSIBLY TWO
PEAKS.
WE ARE STILL WORKING ON THAT
VERY ISSUE.
SO IN FACT, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN
WITH INFLUENZA IN CLIMATE CHANGE
COULD VERY WELL BE A MARKED AND
STRIKING PATTERN IN A CHANGED
PATTERN IN INFLUENZA PATTERN OF
DISEASE AND ITS PREVALENCE.
AND WHEN IT HAPPENS, BECAUSE WE
DON'T UNDERSTAND SEASONALITY.
FINALLY, THE WORLD SAY MUCH
SMALLER AND MORE MOW BILL PLACE
PROVIDING MANY
OPPORTUNITIES -- MOBILE -- FOR
DISEASES TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD, MUCH MORE QUICKLY.
WE SEEN THIS HAPPEN IN MANY
EXAMPLES, CONSIDER SARS FOR
EXAMPLE&THERE ARE MANY
OPPORTUNITIES.
I PUT IN A PLUG FOR LIST SERVE
CALLED PRO MED MAIL WE STARTED A
LITTLE OVER 10 YEARS AGO WHICH
REPORTS ON OUTBREAKS AROUND THE
WORLD BY E-MAIL, WHICH WAS THEN
A NOVELTY.
BECAUSE SURVEILLANCE IS ONE OF
THE MANY THINGS WE NEED TO DO,
INCREASE AWARENESS AND EARLY
 EARLY
WARNING SYSTEMS.
IN THE END, WE KNOW THAT CLIMATE
CHANGE IS CAUSING MAJOR FEECTS
INFECTIOUS DISEASE,
DISTRIBUTION -- AFFECTS -- WHAT
WE DISCUSSED ARE SOME
POSSIBILITIES.
WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE REAL
SCENARIO IS GOING TO BE, THE
SPECIFICS WILL BE SCENARIO
DEPARTMENT BUT THESE ARE GOING
TO BE -- DEPENDENT -- GLOBAL
PROBLEMS AND I THINK WE CAN BE
PRETTY SURE THAT GIVEN THE HIGH
RATE OF CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
UNPRECEDENTED IN THE FACT, WE
ARE GOING TO SEE CHANGES.
THERE IS NO POINT -- NO VALUE IN
FINGERPOINT BEING WHO IS
RESPONSIBLE.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE CLIMATE
CHANGES.
WE NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR THEM.
AND WITH THAT, I THANK YOU FOR
YOUR TIME AND EFFORT.



[APPLAUSE]



>> THANK YOU.
I AM HOLDING MY BREATH AND
LEARNING TO THINK LIKE A
CHICKEN.
ANY QUESTIONS, BRIEF QUESTIONS?



[LOW AUDIO]
>> IT'S A VERY INTERESTING
QUESTION BECAUSE UNFORTUNATELY
ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE TRYING
TO GUESS SOME LABORATORY DATA TO
DETERMINE THE SUB TYPES.
FOR EXAMPLE, H1 N1, WHICH IS THE
DEFENDANT THROUGH A LONG PROS,
SOME OF IT NOT ENTIRELY NATURAL
PROBABLY OF 1918 AND H3 N2, THE
DESCENDANTS OF THE 1968
PANDEMIC, THE MAIN CIRCULATING
SEASONAL FLU, WE ARE NOT
SURE -- SOME PEOPLE ARGUE THAT
WE COCIRCULATE UNDER DIFFERENT
PATTERNS AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
WE SOMETIMES SEE CIRCULATION AT
THE SAME TIME AND WE STILL DON'T
KNOW IF THERE IS ANY GENERAL
RULE SO WE ARE TRYING TO GET LAB
DATA FROM SOME OF THESE PLACES
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE PATTERNS
ARE.
THAT'S VERY DIFFICULT FOR
OBVIOUS REASONS.
BECAUSE IT'S EASIER TO IDENTIFY
CLINICALLY BUT ONE OF THE MANY
QUESTIONS THAT STILL TEXTBOOKS
WILL GIVE YOU AN ANSWER AND
DIFFERENT TEXTBOOKS WILL GIVE
YOU DIFFERENT ANSWERS AND
PROBABLY THE TRUTH IS, WE DON'T
KNOW THE ANSWER.



>> THANK YOU.
GREAT.
THANK YOU.
AND WE WANT TO REMEMBER TO
ALSO -- THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
NOW EILEENE COORDINATES THE
IOMNAS PANEL ON MICROBIAL
THREATS.
OUR NEXT SPEAKER IS JOAN ROSE
FROM MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY.
JOAN HAS BEEN WORKING ON WATER
BORNE DISEASES AND CLIMATE
CHANGE SPECIFICALLY EXTREME
WEATHER EVENTS.
WELCOME JOAN ROSE.



[APPLAUSE]
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE
INVITATION.
IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE.
[INAUDIBLE]
OKAY.
I'LL GET SIT WAITED HERE.
IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE HERE AND
TALK ABOUT MICROBIELGY AND WATER
BORNE DECEASES.
I HAVE GIVEN MANY OF THE
REFERENCES THAT I USED FOR THE
SLIDES TOWARDS SOME SLIDES IN
THE BACK WHERE I TRIED TO PUT
THEM ON THE SLIDES.
BUT IF I MISSED SOMETHING AND
YOU HAVE SOME INTEREST, FEEL
FREE TO E-MAIL ME OR TALK TO ME
LATER AT THE BREAK.
SO LET'S TALK ABOUT WATER BORNE
DISEASES FIRST.
IT'S BASICALLY DEFIND AS A
TRANSMISSION OF DISEASE TO THE
CONSUCHGZ OF CONTAMINATED
DRINKING WATER OR RECREATIONAL
EXPOATIONURE.
THAT'S THE PRIMARY DEFINITION.
-- EXPOSURE.
WE HAVE SOME FOCUS ON WATER BASE
OR WATER WASH DISEASE.
WATER BASE DISEASE BEING THE
VECTOR BORN DISEASES.
WHERE YOU HAVE WATER ASSOCIATED
WITH MOSQUITOES AND THE VECTORS
OR WATER WASH, WHAT THEY CALL
THAT WHICH IS RELATED TO THE
SANITATION THAT YOU HAVE ENOUGH
WATER TO PREVENT DISEASES VIA
SANITATION.
MOST OF THE STATISTICS ON WATER
BORNE DISEASE FOCUS ON OUTBREAKS
AND THAT IS WHY I WANT TO TALK
ABOUT EXTREMES BECAUSE WE DEAL
WITH EXTREMES ON THE CLIMATE
SIDE, ON THE WEATHER SIDE, AND
THEN WE ALSO DEAL WITH EXTREMES
ON THE WATER SIDE.
IF WE LOOK AT EN DEMIC WATER
BORNE DISEASE IN THE U.S., THERE
IS SOME ESTIMATES MANDATED BY
CDC UNDER THE SAFE DRINKING
WATER ACT.
AND WE HAVE GOT A VARIETY OF
ESTIMATES ANYWHERE FROM 4-11
MILLION ANNUAL CASES, WHAT THEY
ARE CALLING REAL ILLNESS.
THEY DEFIND IT BY A SYSTEM
RATHER THAN THESE AGENTS, TO
COME EXTENT THAT HAS SOME
PROBLEMS AND WE'LL TALK ABOUT
THAT A BIT.
AND UP TO AS MANY AS 32 MILLION
CASES.
YOU CAN SEE THIS IS A VERY ROUGH
ESTIMATE OF HOW MUCH INDEMNIC
DISEASE SPREAD THROUGH
RECREATIONAL AND DRINKING WATER.
OF COURSE IF WE GET TO THE
GLOBAL LEVEL, WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT VERY SERIOUS GLOBAL BIRD
EN OF DISEASE ASSOCIATED WITH
CONTAMINATED WATER.
WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A BILLION
PEOPLE LACKING ACCESS.
4 BILLION CASES OF DIARRHEA,
MANY PEOPLE HAVE REPEAT TYPES OF
ILLNESSES AND HIGH MORTALITY IN
INFANTS.
SO THE PREDOMINANT WATER BORNE
MICROORGANISMS ARE FECAL, ORAL
AGENTS, WE HAVE A WHOLE LIST OF
VIRUSES AND BACTERIA AND THESE
ARE THE PREDOMESTIC NANTS THAT
HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED -- .
PREDOMINANT.
LEGIONELA IS INCLUDED IN THE
WATER BORNE DISEASE OUTBREAK
DATA SETS.
I'LL TALK ABOUT WHEN THAT
HAPPENED.
THAT'S A RESPIRATORY WATER BORNE
DISEASE BUT IT HASN'T BEEN
COUNTED AS PART OF THE
STATISTICS EARLY IN ITS HISTORY.
AND I DON'T THINK WE ACCOUNT
VERY WELL FOR OTHER DISEASE
ENDPOINTS OTHER THAN
GASTROINTESTINAL SYMPTOMS AND WE
START TALKING ABOUT WATER BORNE
DISEASE.
THIS SLIDE SHOWS SOME OF THE
DATA FROM WHEN IN THE UNITED
STATES BY ECOLOGICAL AGENTS.
WHEN WE STARTD TO TRY TO TAKE A
NATIONAL LOOK AT OUTBREAKS,
THESE ARE OUTBREAKS IN DRINKING
WATER.
SO THIS IS A DRINKING WATER OUT
AND THESE ARE THOSE THAT HAVE
BEEN FROM AN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL
STANDPOINT TIED TO THE COMMUNITY
WATER SUPPLY.
OF COURSE TYPHOID WAS VERY
PROMINENT IN THE UNITED STATES
AND IF YOU LOOK AT THIS, LOOK BY
AGENTS IN THIS BACTERIAL PURPLE
BAR, YOU WOULD SEE IT'S MOSTLY
TYPHOID AND IT CAME DOWN
DRAMATICALLY AS WE SEPARATED OUT
SEWAGE FROM OUR WATER SUPPLY
LIKE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND IN
THE CHICAGO AREA.
AND WHEN WE STARTED
CHLORINATING.
SO THOSE ARE TWO EVENTS WHERE
THEY CAN DOCUMENT THIS DECREASE
IN TYPHOID.
THIS IS ACUTE GASTRO INTERRITIS.
YOU CAN SEE THIS GOING UP AND
DOWN.
AND THIS IS WHERE WE DO NOT HAVE
A DEFIND ECOLOGICAL AGENT.
IF YOU GET TOWARDS THE LATER
YEARS, YOU SEE THAT WE HAVE DONE
A BETTER JOB, REALLY, OF
DEFINING THESE AGENTS, GRDIETS
CAME ON THE SCENE IN THE 60s
AND IDENTIFIED BY THE MEDICAL
COMMUNITY AS A DEC CAUSING
AGENT -- DISEASE-CAUSING AGENT.
OTHER THINGS STARTED COMINGIN
AND WE HAD BETTER DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THE MEDICAL SIDE WHICH LED
THEN TO VERY WATER BORNE
INVESTIGATIONS, THE IDENTITY OF
THE ECOLOGICAL AGENTS.
AND HERE IS THE MORE RECENT DATA
BY VERY SPECIFIC -- YOU CAN SEE
THAT LIEGE NELLA SHOWS UP HERE
AND IT'S NOT -- IT WAS
IDENTIFIED IN THE 70s BUT IT
DIDN'T GET ADDED TO THE WATER
BORNE DISEASE DATABASE UNTIL
JUST RECENTLY.
SO IF YOU GO BACKWARDS AND YOU
LOOK IN MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY,
WE REPORT THE WATER BORNE
OUTBREAKS DOCUMENTED FOR CERTAIN
YEARS, YOU'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE
THE LIEGE NELLA DATA SETS THERE.
AND YOU SEE AGI WAS DOING A
BETTER JOB DIAGNOSING THE CAUSE
OF THESE AGENTS AS WEUENTED
THROUGH THE YEARS.
 AS WE WENT THROUGH THE YEARS.
THIS IS 03-0 4.
AND AGAIN, YOU SEE SOME OF THE
LIEGE NELLA SHOWING UP AND THESE
ARE A NUMBER OF OUTBREAKS.
AND THIS IS TYPICALLY WHAT WE
SEE IN THE EARLY YEARS IT WAS
ANYWHERE FROM 20-40, THE PLANE
CRASH IN THE COMMUNITY WHEN
THEIR WHOLE WATER SUPPLY WAS
CONTAMINATED AND NOW WE MOVED TO
ANYWHERE FROM 4-5 -- 1-4
OUTBREAKS PER MONTH AND UP TO
20 -- TALKING ABOUT 10-20
OUTBREAKS NATIONALLY,
DOCUMENTED.
THAT'S WHAT HAS BEEN DOCUMENTED.
SO, LET'S GET TO THIS ISSUE OF
TODAY'S DISCUSSION.
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF CLIMATE IN
REGARD TO WATER BORNE DISEASE?
IF WE BELIEVE WE CAN DEFINE THAT
ROLE, WHAT ARE THE MECHANISMS
AND HOW CAN WE PREVENT THAT?
AND PRETTY MUCH CLIMATE AND
WATER, WE CAN THINK ABOUT THE
ROLE OF CLIMATE AND WATER.
CERTAINLY THE DIRECT EFFECT ARE
QANTITY AND THE WATER INDUSTRY
IS AWARE OF THAT AND WEATHER AND
CLIMATE AND THEIR WHOLE IDEA OF
PRECIPITATION, TEMPERATURE IS
GOING TO EFFECT THEIR ABILITY TO
MANAGE THEIR WATER RESOURCES IN
TERMS OF QUANTITY.
ESPECIALLY WHEN OVER USING THEIR
WATER LIKE THEY ARE IN THE WEST
WHERE THEY HAVE OVERALL
INDICATED THEIR WATER.
AND THEY HAVE PROBLEMS WITH
STORAGE.
AND EVEN IN THE SOUTH -- LAND
USE AND COMMUNITY BASED ISSUES
TO RUN OFF, TO SOIL MOISTURE, SO
AS WE START TO PUT THE PICTURE
TODAY ON QUALITY, WE CANNOT
RELATE IN MANY CASES, EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE PRECIPITATION AND
RUN OFF MODELS, WE HAVE A VERY
DIFFICULT TIME SCALING THAT TO
ACTUALLY MODEL THAT CHANGE IN
QUALITY.
MANY CASES WE CAN GET TO CHANGES
IN SOLIDS IN THE WATER, CHANGES
IN TERBIDDITY AND THE GOAL IS,
HOW DO WE RELATE THOSE PHYSICAL
CHANGES IN WATER OR EVEN
TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO THE
BIOLOGICAL CHANGES, MICROBIAL
CHANGES THAT MIGHT EFFECT HEALTH
VIA THE WATER BORN DISEASE
ROUTE?
THAT'S A DIFFICULT JUMP IN TERMS
OF OUR UNDERSTANDING.
NOW THE GOAL IS ADEQUATE AND
SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY.
IT'S RELATED TO STORAGE,
RESERVOIR AND GROUNDWATER LEVELS
AND WE ARE TALKING ABOUT
SUPPORTING HUMANS AND
COMMUNITIES AND ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES AND OF COURSE WE WANT
ADEQUATE -- AND THIS IS RELATED
TO CONTAMINANT SPREAD.
AND I HAVE TO SAY FROM THE
CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE, IF YOU LOOK
AT BOTH IN TERMS OF POLICY AS
WELL AS TRYING TO DEFINE THE
IMPACT, WE HAVE GOT A TIME SPACE
PROBLEM.
RIGHT?
USUALLY WE HAVE OR TALKED ABOUT
CLIMATE AND A LONG TIME FRAME
START TALKING ABOUT WEATHER IN A
SHORTER TIME FRAME AND WE START
TALKING ABOUT WATER MANAGEMENT
AND WATER QUALITY IN PARTICULAR
AT A VERY DIFFERENT TIME FRAME.
I'M GOING MENS THOSE TIME FRAMES
AS WE TALK ABOUT THE EVIDENCE
THAT I THINK WILL HELP US TO
UNDERSTAND THESE RELATIONSHIPS.
SO YOU SEE SOME OF THIS HEALTH
IMPACT.
WE HAVE -- I DIDN'T GET THAT.
OOPS.
HERE WE GO.
SO CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN
THESE REGIONAL WEATHER CHANGES,
OF COURSE EXTREMES HAVE BEEN
MENTIONED ALREADY.
PRECIPITATION AND
TEMPERATURE&I'M GOING TO FOCUS
ON PRECIPITATION BECAUSE THAT'S
WHERE MOST OF OUR EVIDENCE LIES
OR CONNECTS US FROM THE WEATHER
CLIMATE SCENARIOES TO HEALTH.
WE HAVE CONTAMINANT PATHWAYS AND
HERE WE WILL TALK ABOUT WATER
BORNE DISEASES DISEASES AND I WILL TALK
ABOUT EXTREME EVENTS AS WELL.
I'LL MENTION SOME TO THE DEGREE
WHAT WE MIGHT BE DOING IN TERMS
OF ADAPTATION MEASURES AND
RESEARCH.
AND I WILL BE FOCUSING ON
EXTREMES AND SLEDS.
AS IT TURNS OUT, AS I HAVE BEEN
EXPLORING THIS WHOLE AREA I
GUESS IN MORE DETAIL, THAT'S
WHERE MOST OF OUR DATA, GLOBALLY
LIES.
ARE IN THESE WHAT THEY CALL THE
DISASTER DATA SETS.
ALTHOUGH I DON'T -- OFTEN IN
THESE DISASTERS, INFECTIOUS
DISEASE IS NOT WELL ACCOUNTED
FOR BECAUSE IF YOU'RE WORIED
ABOUT DROWNING, OR YOU'RE WORIED
ABOUT INJURY, AND JUST FINDING
SHELTER, YOU -- THE ISSUE OF
DIARRHEA OR ANY KIND OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASE SOMETIMES
FALLS THROUGH THE CRACKS IN
TERMS OF MONITORING THAT.
SO, I THINK THAT IS -- NOW THERE
ARE OTHER FACTORS OBVIOUSLY THEY
INFLUENCE WATER BORNE DISEASE.
WE HAVE TO HAVE A SOURCE OF THE
THIS IS THE LATEST LEVEL OF
DISEASE IN HUMANS AND ANIMALS.
PATHIGENCE ARE KNOW ISSUE IN
WATER BORNE DISEASE.
WE KNOW THAT.
I'LL SHOW YOU SOME EXAMPLES
NURBANIZATION AREAS, WASTE
DISPOSAL AREAS AND PORVETY AND
OVERCROWDING AND POOR WASTE
TREATMENT.
AND I FOUND INTERESTING DATA
COMING OUT OF BRAZIL THAT I'LL
MENTION LATER&OUR DOMESTIC
ANIMAL PRACTICES AND THAT
CONNECTION BETWEEN WHAT WE ARE
DOING WITH OUR FOOD AND OUR
PROTEIN AND WHAT WE ARE DOING
WITH IT TRYING TO MEET THESE
NEW -- AND THE MANURE THAT IS
CREATED AS A RESULT OF THIS.
AND OF COURSE FROM THE CLIMATE
PERSPECTIVE, I ALREADY MENTIONED
PRECIPITATION.
TRANSPORT, MEANS FLOW.
WHAT WE HAVEN'T REALLY CAPTURED
VERY WELL ARE THESE RESERVOIRS.
I KNOW THAT RITA COLWEL WILL
TALK ABOUT THESE RESERVOIRS, SO
LIKE SEDIMENT, 0
PLANKTON -- ZERO PLANKTON.
THERE IS A RESERVOIR THERE WE
DON'T CAPTURE VERY WELL.
AND TEMPERATURE IS HIGHLY
RELATED TO SURVIVAL OF THESE
PATHOGENS AND WE CAN MODEL A
PIECE OF THAT BUT WE CAN'T
EXPLAIN ALL OF IT.
HUMANS ARE A SOURCE AND
DEPENDING ON YOUR
INFRUSTRUCTURE, AND I JUST READ
THAT IN THE GLOBAL WORLD, THEY
ARE TALKING ABOUT ACCESS TO
SANITATION MEANS HOW MANY PEOPLE
AREN'T DEFECATING IN THE YARD OR
MAYBE THEIR NEIGHBOR'S YARD
ANYMORE AND OF COURSE WE HAVE
THE STORMWATER, STORMWATER IS
ALWAYS PUT IN A SEPARATE
CATEGORIY AND IT DRIVES A LOT OF
THESE OTHER THINGS THAT WE
HAVEN'T REALLY ADDRESSED
READILY.
STORM SEWER OVERFLOWS AND THEN
WE HAVE AG CULL
TELL -- AGRICULTURAL RUN OFF.
AND NATURALLY OCCURRING
PATHOGENS.
I'M NOT GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE
TOXIC AGGIE AND -- ALLERGY.
BUT THERE IS A GROWING AND
EMERGING AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
WARMING TRENDS BECAUSE IT'S A
HUGE ISSUE IN THE GREAT LAKES
WHEN WE HAVE LONGER WARMING
TRENDS AND MORE OF THE BLOOMTION
BLOOMS AND THE WHOLE DYNAMIC
THERE.
I WON'T BE ADDRESSING THAT
TODAY.
SO LOCAL AND REGIONAL WEATHER
CHANGES AND THIS IS ONE OF THE
REASONS WHY THE WATER SIDE WHERE
WE HAVE NOT GONE A VERY GOOD
JOB, IS THAT PEOPLE THOUGHT OF
IT AS WORLD GOAL AND WE DON'T
EVEN SEE IT AS A RISE TO THE
LEVEL OF EVEN AT THE STATE OR
NATIONAL DATABASES.
AND AS YOU LOOK AT THE GLOBAL
HEALTH ASSEMBLY, THEY ONLY
INCLUDE ONE WATER BORNE DISEASE
ON THEIR LIST, THAT'S REPORTABLE
AS A GLOBAL EXPLEFL THAT'S
CHOLERA.
NONE OF THE
OTHER -- LEVEL -- DISEASES ARE
MANDATED TO BE REPORTED.
I FOUND THAT ODD THAT WE
COULDN'T CAPTURE THIS
INFORMATION.
SO, PEOPLE THINK OF WATER AT THE
LOCAL LEVEL AND THAT'S HOW THEY
THINK OF MANAGING THAT AND SO
GATHERING THE DATA, MORE THAN
NEQUALS 1 HOPEFULLY TO A
RELATIONSHIP.
SO HOW DO THESE THINGS WHERE OUR
LOCAL LAND USE, OUR LOCAL
WEATHER, AND THESE SPECIFIC
ISSUES EFFECT THE TRANSPORT AND
SURVIVAL OF THE CONTAMINANTS
CONCERN AND HOW DO THEY EFFECT
WATER AND RECREATIONAL WATER?
SO, OUTBREAKS.
I WANT TO MENTION OUTBREAKS.
IN THE UNITED STATES, DRINKING
WATER OUTBREAKS ARE GENERALLY
COMMON SOURCE OUTBREAKS.
THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH EITHER
SOURCE WATER CONTAMINATION
FAILURE AT THE DRINKING WATER
PLANT OR CROSS CONTAMINATION AT
THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.
THE TRUE DEFINITION IS TWO OR
MORE PEOPLE THOUGHT TO HAVE A
COMMON EXPOSURE TO A POTENTIAL
SOURCE.
BUT I CAN TELL THAT YOU WATER
BORNE OUTBREAK DATA SET I SHOWED
YOU BEFORE IN THE UNITED STATES,
THE AVERAGE ATTACK RATE IS ABOUT
40%.
AVERAGE.
SO WE ARE TALKING ABOUT VERY
DRAMATIC EVENTS IN A COMMUNITY.
WE DON'T START DETECTING WATER
BORNE OUTBREAKS UNLESS THEY
START REACHING 20 OR PROBABLY
20%.
I THINK ONE OF THOSE LOW ENDS
MAY BE 15%.
MAYBE WE ARE DOING A LITTLE BIT
BETTER JOB NOW ADAYS BUT THAT IS
WHAT HISTORICALLY WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO DO.
THAT'S WHERE THIS DISEASE COMES
FROM.
BELOW THAT.
THERE IS OTHER DEFINITION THAT
IS HAVE BEEN BEEN USED.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT IN SOME OF
THIS LITERATURE THAT TALKS
ABOUT, THEY DIDN'T HAVE AN
OUTBREAK, YOU ARE NOT REALLY
SURE WHAT DEFINITION THEY HAD
USED AND WHAT TOOLS THEY HAD
USED TO DEFINE WHETHER THEY HAD
REALLY HAD AN OUTBREAK OR NOT.
AND WHETHER THEY WERE ADHERING
TO THESE TYPES OF DEFINITIONS.
OF COURSE WE ALREADY HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THIS IDEA OF THE
EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS.
AND BOTH ON THE DROUGHT SIDE AND
FOR RAINFALL AND ON THE HIGH
RAIT RAIN EVENT.
I MIGHT MENTION THAT WE HAVEN'T
DONE A GOOD JOB WITH WIND BUT
I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU AT LEAST
ONE EXAMPLE WHERE WIND HAS
PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
INFLUENCING WATER BORNE DISEASE
AND THAT IS SOMETHING WE
PROBABLY WILL HAVE TO CAPTURE IN
THE FUTURE.
AND THEN THIS WHOLE IDEA OF
TEMPORAL, SPACIAL DISTRIBUTION
WHERE SOME OF THESE EXTREME
EVENTS, WE HAVE VERY DIFFICULT
TIME IN PREDICTIONS.
MAYBE WITH FLOODING WE MIGHT
SAY, WE MIGHT BE GETTING THESE
EXCESS RAINS BUT FLOODING IS
RELATED TO THE COMMUNITY AND HOW
WELL THEY CONTROL FLOODWATERS
AND AT WHAT LEVEL THEY PREPARED
FOR IN TERMS OF FLOODING.
SO LET'S GET RIGHT TO THE
EVIDENCE ISSUES.
LET'S TALK ABOUT OUTBREAKS AND
EXTREMES IN THE UNITED STATES.
WE HAVE SOME EXAMPLES OF
INDIVIDUAL OUTBREAKS IN
COMMUNITIES WHERE RAINFALL OR
CLIMATE LOOK TO BE UNUSUAL AND
LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE.
IN MILWAUKEE, 400,000 PEOPLE
WERE SICK.
ABOUT HALF OF THAT POPULATION,
THE SOUTH -- DRINKING WATER
FACILITY WAS AFFECTED.
THEY HAD EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT
IN THE MONTH PRECEEDING.
THEY HAD A COMBINED OVERFLOW AND
IF YOU KNOW WHAT THAT IS, THAT'S
A SYSTEM WHERE YOU COMBINE YOUR
UNTREATED SEWAGE AND YOUR STORM
DRAIN AND UNDER HIGH RAIN EVENTS
IT DISCHARGES WITHOUT TREATMENT
INTO THE WATER SYSTEM.
NOW WE ARE UNDER MANDATE AND
RULES IN THE UNITED STATES TO
FIX THOSE.
SOME PEOPLE WON'T GET THOSE
FIXED UNTIL 200015.
MILWAUKEE GOT THOSE IN PLACE FOR
THEIR CSO IN 1994.
THIS WAS BEFORE THAT.
CATTLE WERE BLAMED BUT
PHENOTYPING LATER ON SUGGESTED
IT WAS SEWAGE.
E.COLI INFECTION IN WALKERTON,
ONTARIO, A RURAL AREA, IT WAS A
GROUNDWATER SUPPLY IN THIS CASE.
THEY ALSO HAD INFECTIONS.
MANURE WAS THE SOURCE.
AGAIN, EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT, I
THINK IT WAS UP TO ABOUT 150%,
THEIR 50 YEAR AVERAGE OF WHAT
THEY USUALLY GET IN THAT AREA.
SALMONELLA OUTBREAK RECENTLY IN
COLORADO.
NOW, THAT'S A VERY INTERESTING
OUTBREAK.
>> We: HAVEN'T HAD A LARGE
DRINKING WATER OUTBREAK OF
SALMONELLA LIKE THIS SINCE
1960s IN THE UNITED STATES.
SO WHAT'S GOING ON THERE?
IT'S NOT CLEAR.
THEY DID HAVE A HIGH SNOW PACK
AND A RAPID MELTING.
THEY DON'T GET A LOT OF RAIN IN
THAT PART OF COLORADO.
SO WITH THIS HIGH SNOW PACK AND
HIGH PRECIPITATION IN THE WINTER
MONTHS FOLLOWED BY THE MELTING,
THEY DON'T KNOW THE SOURCE OF
THE SALMONELLA.
THEY THINK IT'S A DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM OUTBREAK WHERE THERE WAS
CROSS CONTAMINATION BUT DON'T
KNOW WHETHER IT WAS SEWAGE OR
COMING FROM ANIMALS AND WASHING
INTO THE PIPES.
SO WE DON'T KNOW THERE.
BUT WHAT DO WE KNOW FOR MORE
THAN THESE LITTLANTIC DOATLE
EXPLANATIONS?
--ANT DOATLE EXPLANATIONS?
WE HAVE LOOKED SEVERAL YEARS
BACK WITH JONATHAN PECK ON WATER
BORNE OUTBREAKS IN THE UNITED
STATES.
WE WERE ABLE TO GET THE
INFORMATION FROM THE
ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
ON THE LOCATION OF THE OUTBREAK
BY CITY BUT NOT THE IN TAKE.
SO THEY DIDN'T HAVE A GPS.
THAT WAS A PROBLEM IN TERMS OF
RESOLUTION BUT IT WAS BY CITY.
AND THE MONTH OF THE OUTBREAK.
WE DEPENDENT HAVE THE START AND
EN DATE IN THE DATABASE.
YOU CAN SEE THE RED DOTS ARE
REALLY AGI.
I DON'T HAVE THE COLORS THAT ARE
MISSING THERE.
BUT THE RED DOTS ARE THE AGI,
THAT I SHOWED YOU FOR THE
UNKNOWN.
IF WE LOOK DOWN AT THIS IN
DETAIL, WE SEE REALLY -- WE
DON'T SEE TEMPORAL ASSOCIATIONS
OF OUTBREAKS.
IN OTHER WORDS, THESE OUTBREAKS
THAT OCCURRED IN THIS WATERSHED
RIGHT HERE AND THESE OUTBREAKS
THAT OCCURRED IN THIS WATERSHED
RIGHT HERE ARE NOT TEMPERATURE
REALLY RELATED.
THEY DIDN'T OCCUR IN THE SAME
YEAR.
BUT THEY ARE GEOGRAPHICALLY
RELATED.
WE HAVE SPACIAL RELATIONSHIPS IN
KEY WATER SHEDS.
SO WHAT THAT MEANS IS WE HAVE A
WATERSHED WHERE THEIR SOURCES OF
PATHOGENS THAT ON OCCASION GET
IN HIGH ENOUGH CONCENTRATION
THAT OVERWHELM THE WATER
TREATMENT PROCESSES IN PLACE AND
ARE DETECTED AT A HIGH ENOUGH
LEVEL TO BE REPORTED AS AN
OUTBREAK.
TO BE REPORTED AS AN OUTBREAK.
THIS IS A GROUNDWATER STATE.
PENNSYLVANIA IS A GROUNDWATER
STATE FOR THE MOST PART.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THESE ARE
RELATED EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE
USING GROUNDWATER SOURCES.
SO WE GOT EVIDENCE OF SOME
SPACIAL RELATIONSHIPS OF THE
OUTBREAK BUT WE DIDN'T REALLY
HAVE EVIDENCE OF TEMPORAL
RELATIONSHIPS.
WHEN WE STARTED LOOKING AT A
BROADER SCALE, SAY CAN WE RELATE
THIS TO ANY DEGREE TO CLIMATE
VARIABLES, WE WANTED TO CHOOSE
PRESIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.
TEMPERATURE MADE IT MORE
COMPLICATED TO ADD TO THE
ANALYSIS.
SO WE JUST STUCK WITH RAINFALL.
AND I'M SORRY THAT THE REFERENCE
IS CUT OFF BUT I THINK IT'S
CLEAR IN YOUR PACKAGE.
YOU'LL BE ABLE TO LOOK IT UP.
IN EVERY PLACE, THERE IS A
LITTLE DOANE US SHAPE -- DONUT
SHAPE -- IS WHERE IS THERE A
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE
OUTBREAK AND EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.
IN TIME AND SPACE.
SO IN THIS CASE, WE ARE ABLE TO
GO IN TIME AND SPACE AND TRY TO
RELATE THE OUTBREAKS TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.
NOW, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?
FIRST OF ALL WE HAVE TO USE THE
LARGE WATER BASINS.
SO WE HAVE A LARGE SCALE AND 50
YEARS OF DATA FOR OUTBREAKS.
WE HAD TO GO LARGE WATER BASIN
SCALE.
WE COULDN'T GO TO SMALLER
WATERSHED SCALE AND HAVE ENOUGH
POWER TO LOOK AT THIS.
AND BASICALLY OVER 540
OUTBREAKS.
WE TOOK OUT THE DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEM OUTBREAKS OUT OF THIS
DATA BIS AND TOOK OUT ALL
RECREATIONAL OUTBREAKS.
THAT'S A WHOLE OTHER DATA SET.
WE ARE NOT SURE ABOUT CROSS
CONTAMINATION AND PIPES BREAKING
AND IT'S PROBABLY LIKELY IT
COULD BE RELATED TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.
BUT BASICALLY, THERE WAS 540
OUTBREAKS EVALUATED.
51%, WE WERE SURPRISED TO FIND
THIS, WERE PRECEDED BY RAINFALL
EVENTS.
ABOVE THAT 90 PERCENTILE.
WE TOOK 25 YEAR AVERAGE IN THE
RAIN GAUGES AROUND THE OUTBREAK
AND THE LOCATION OF THE OUTBREAK
AND WE LOOKED IN TIME PRESEEDING
THAT OUTBREAK TO LOOK AT WEATHER
THAT WAS EXTREME EVENT IN THAT
PIECE OF THE TAIL.
THAT'S HOW WE DEFIND IT.
SO, HALF OF THE OUTBREAKS WERE
ASSOCIATED.
BOTH GROUNDWATER AND SURFACE
WATER WERE RELATED.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THERE WAS
A DIFFERENT LAG.
AND IT MIGHT MAKE SENSE IF YOU
THINK ABOUT SURFACE WATER AND
GROUNDWATER.
A ONE MONTH LAG WITH THE
STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP WITH
SURFACE WATER SOURCES AND A TWO
MONTH LAG WITH GROUNDWATER AND
IT MIGHT MAKE SENSE WHEN YOU
THINK ABOUT TRANSPORT FROM THE
FECAL SOURCES TO THE EXPOSURE TO
THE DISEASE.
SO SEWAGE SPILLS ARE A BIG DEAL.
SEWAGE SPILLS OCCUR A LOT WHEN
THERE ARE STORMS AND RAINFALL.
AND WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THESE
KINDS OF THINGS AND EVEN THOUGH
MILWAUKEE HASN'T HAD ANOTHER
LARGE OUTBREAK, IS THERE -- THEY
HAD RECREATIONAL OUTBREAKS IN
THESE AREAS AND THEY ARE STILL
CONCERNED WHETHER THE SEWAGE AND
THE IN FRA STUBLGHTURE CLIMATE
INTERFACE -- INFRUSTRUCTURE -- IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DISEASE.
A COMPLICATION IS TRYING TO LOOK
AT THE SOCIAL CONTEXT AND THE
PUBLIC HEALTH CONTEXT.
WE KNOW THAT ECONOMIC STABILITY
OF THE COMMUNITY IN THE STATE
THAT IS RELATED TO WHETHER WE
HAVE GOOD INFRUSTRUCTURE AND
INVESTMENT IN OUR INFRUSTRUCTURE
IF OUR FOOD AND AG SYSTEM AND
OUR GOVERNMENT AND POLICIES THAT
ARE ALL PLAYING A ROLE IN THESE

PATHOGENS AND WHETHER THEY ARE
GAINING ACCESS TO THE
ENVIRONMENT.
OF COURSE WE HAVE THE HYDROGEN
CONTEXT, THEOLOGY AND
HIGHDROLOGIY AND CLIMATE IS ONE
PIECE OF THAT.
THE AQUATIC ECOLOGIY, NOW
FINDING WET LANDS AND FINDING
LARGE SCALE WET LANDS INVERSELY
RELATED TO FECAL POLLUTION AND
WATER QUALITY.
SO, WE KNOW WHAT WE ARE DOING
WITH OUR ECOSYSTEMS IS RELATED
TO WATER QUALITY BUT WE VIOLENT
BEEN ABLE TO FIND IT.
HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TOO FIND IT.
THIS CYCLE HAS ALREADY BEEN
MENTIONED AND IF YOU LOOK
GLOBALLY, WE DON'T HAVE TOO MANY
NATIONAL WATER SYSTEMS ANYMORE.
THAT AREN'T CONTROLLED IN SOME
WAY BY FLOW AND BY HUMANS.
HARDLY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD.
SO WE HAVE AN ENGINEERED SYSTEM
THAT WE ARE CONTROLLING AND WE
HAVE THE PUBLIC HEALTH CONTACTS
THAT LOOKS AT THIS MONITORING
AND DO WE HAVE DISEASE?
WE DON'T HAVE CHOLERA.
SO WE HAVE A FLOOD IN THE UNITED
STATES, WE ARE NOT GOING TO SEE
CHOLERA BUT I'LL SHOW YOU THE
REST OF THE EVIDENCE THAT IS
SOMETIMES AN ISSUE WITH
FLOODING.
SO THIS EXAMPLE FROM A RECENT
OUTBREAK IN GREAT LAKES.
IT OCCURRED IN SOUTH BASS ISLAND
WHICH IS IN LAKE EERIE.
MASSIVE GROUNDWATER
CONTAMINATION, 1500 PEOPLE I'LL.
AND WHAT I WANT TO POINT OUT IS
THIS LAKE EVENT HERE.
THIS TURNS OUT THAT IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND MANY OTHER AREAS, WIND
IS THE DRIVER OF WATER FLOW.
WIND IS HOW WE MEASURE WATER
FLOW.
AND SO IN IN LAKE EVENT HERE
WHERE YOU SEE THESE BIG ARROWS
WHIPPING AROUND, WHICH OCCURRED
JULY 24, THAT MOVES THE WATER
AND IT MOVES THE WATER LEVEL.
IT ACTUALLY MOVES.
THEY CAN DOCUMENT AND IT MOVES
THE WATER LEVEL UP IN THE LAKE.
A BIG LAKE MOVES THE GROUNDWATER
LEVEL UP.
AND WE DON'T KNOW HOW FAR THAT
GOES BACK IN THE NEAR SHORE BUT
IN THESE ISLANDS IN THE NEAR
SHORE, WE HAVE THESE EVENTS
OCCURRING.
NOW N.IF WE LOOK AT THE DATA AND
EPIDEMIOLOGY, THIS IS THE
RAINFALL IN THE BLUE LINE.
THIS IS ABOUT 200% THE 50 YEAR
AVERAGE IN THE LAKE EERIE REGION
FOR THIS YEAR.
SO THERE IS RAINFALL GOING ON.
HERE IS THE DISEASE CASES
STARRING IN MAY.
A FEW CASES STARTING TO COME UP.
WE STARTED SEEING MORE CASES.
JULY 24 THERE IS THAT WIND EVENT
ABOUT LAKE EERIE AND THEN A PEAK
AND THEN IT WAS RECOGNIZED IT
WAS AN OUTBREAK.
HERE IS OUR BOIL ORDER.
WE FINALLY GOT IN THERE AND THIS
IS THE BOIL ORDER.
AND SO THIS WAS SORT OF A
PERFECT STORM.
THEY WERE DOING A LOT OF THINGS
WITH MINIMAL WASTE WATER
TREATMENT ON THIS ISLAND.
THEY WERE USING GROUNDWATER
WITHOUT DISINFECTION.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH,
STATISTICALLY FROM AN
EPIDEMIOLOGICAL POINT OF VIEW,
PEOPLE WHO DRAMPG LAKE EERIE
WATER WHO WAS TREATED, HAD THE
SAME ATTACK RATE OF THOSE
DRINKING GROUNDWATER.
SO THE SOURCE WATER WAS JUST AS
CONTAMINATED, OVERWHELMING THE
TREATMENT BARRIER.
AND IT WAS NEUROVIRUS GASTRO
INTERRITIS, THERE WERE SOME PEER
ORIA AND GASTRO INTERRITIS IN
THIS OUTBREAK.
SO WE DO HAVE NGAL-1 AND 500.
-- EQUAL -- AND WE HAVE
RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN WHAT WE
ARE DOING WITH OUR
INFRUSTRUCTURE AND THESE DISEASE
OUTBREAKS.
AND IF WE LOOK AT EXTREME
WEATHER AND LOOK AT FETE
FATALITY, HEAT.
I DON'T THINK ANYBODY WILL TALK
ABOUT HEAT TODAY.
BUT HEAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED
WITH -- ARE WE HAVING SOME HEAT
TALKS?
[LAUGHTER]
BUT, IF WE START TALKING ABOUT
ACTUALLY DISEASE, WATER BORNE
DISEASE, I FOUND THIS PARTICULAR
PAPER VERY INTERESTING.
THEY LOOKED AT GEOPHYSICAL
DISAFTS.
SO THEY DIDN'T REALLY
INCLUDE -- DISASTERS -- HIDE
LOGIC DISASTERS.
THERE WERE TWO TSUNAMIS IN HERE.
AND HERE THEY SAID -- AND THIS
IS THEIR TITLE, NEGLIGIBLE RISK.
WHICH I THOUGHT THAT WAS AN
INTERESTING TERM TO PUT IN THE
TITLE.
AND THEN THEY USED THE WORD,
EPIDEMIC.
I WASN'T SURE HOW THEY DEFIND
EPIDEMIC OR OUTBREAK IN THIS
PAPER.
BUT BASICALLY, I DIDN'T THINK IT
WAS TOO NEGLIGIBLE.
THEY LOOKED AT 26 DISASTERS AND
ABOUT 20% REPORTED THESE
DISEASES.
AND SOME RESPIRATORY DISEASES
AND OR DIARRHEA.
AND THEY SAID THAT 8% DIDN'T
REALLY REPORT OUTBREAKS.
SO I DIDN'T KNOW WHAT THEY MEANT
BY OUTBREAKS IN THAT CASE.
I DIDN'T KNOW WHAT THE
DENOMINATOR OR THE NEWELERATOR

WAS IN THAT CASE -- NEWELERATOR.
BUT I DIDN'T AGREE WITH THEIR
TITLE AND I THOUGHT THAT THAT
WAS PROBABLY PRETTY SIGNIFICANT.
AND IF YOU GO TO FLOOD AND ON
THE NEXT SLIDE IS THE REFERENCE
TO THE DATA, BUT IF YOU GO
DIRECTLY TO FLOOD, FLOOD, MAYBE
NOT FROM A DIRECT MORTALITY BUT
EVEN INDIRECT, IT HAS THE MOST
DRAMATIC EFFECT ON COMMUNITIES.
AND WHAT YOU SEE IS ABOUT FROM
AN AVERAGE 2000-2004, 45% OF THE
VICTIMS BY DISASTER WERE
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOOD.
AND WE HAVE 2005 DATA HERE, 47%.
AND IN 2006, 60%.
THIS COMES FROM THE GLOBAL
DATABASE BECAUSE THERE IS MUCH
MORE INFORMATION IN THIS AND
THIS IS THE REFERENCE.
I'LL JUST PASS THROUGH THAT
BECAUSE YOU HAVE THAT IN YOUR
PACKET.
SO, MOST OF OUR DATA ASSOCIATED
WITH DISASTERS COMES FROM
FLOODS.
MOST COMMON ILLNESSES ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH FLOODS ON THE
LITERATURE AND GENARRIC DIARRHEA
AND TYPHOID.
WE DO HAVE SOME UNUSUAL
ILLNESSES SUCH AS TETANUS AND
YOU HAVE AGENTS LIKE:
INTERESTING, ENOUGH, THERE WERE
CASES IN BRAZIL FINDING NOW THAT
THAT IS THE MOST COMMON
IDENTIFIED DISEASE WITH FLOOD.
AND THEY ACTUALLY FOUND THAT IT
WASN'T RELATED TO WHETHER THE
MICE WERE THERE, WHETHER THERE
WAS FOOD IN THE HOUSE BUT
RELATED TO INFRUSTRUCTURE.
ACCESS TO INADEQUATE SEWAGE AND
SEWER SYSTEMS OR THE MICE AND
THE RATS COULD GET IN FROM THE
SOURCE OF THE HOUSE.
SO, IT WAS THIS POOR URBAN AREA
WHERE YOU HAD THAT SOCIAL PIECE
OF IT, THAT PIECE RELATED WITH
FLOODS TO THE DISEASE.
SO STARTING TO FIND THAT OUT.
WE STILL HAVE CHOLERA AND
TYPHOID.
ONE THING ABOUT TYPHOID AND I
NEVER UNDERSTAND WHY IT WASN'T
IN THE GLOBAL REPORTABLE
DATABASE.
WE ARE SEEING MORE ANTIBIOTIC
RESISTENCE IN TYPHOID
RESISTANCE.
RITA WILL TALK MORE ABOUT THAT.
BUT CHOLERA MAY BE BECAUSE IT IS
ON THE REPORTABLE DATABASE, IS
MUCH -- IS THE MOST FREQUENT
BACTERIAL ILLNESS ASSOCIATED
WITH FLOODS IN THE DEVELOPING
WORLD.
AND OF COURSE THEY FOUND IT IN
PREAND POST HURRICANE MITCH AND
THEY DOCUMENTED THAT VERY WELL.
SO THAT WAS VERY TRAUMIC.
SO THE PERFECT STORM.
WE HAVE CONSTRUCTION OF
INFRUSTRUCTURE, IMPACT ON
DISTRIBUTION OF UNTREATED SEWAGE
AND CONTAMINATED WATER, WE HAVE
RESUSPENSION OF CONTAMINATED
SEDIMENTS AND SOIL AND WE HAVE
DISPLACEMENT OF PEOPLE AND
SHELTERS.
THAT IS ONE OF THE ISSUES WITH
KATRINA.
AND THEY DID HAVE 500 SEWAGE
TREATMENT PLANTS FLOODED DURING
THIS TIME AND SOME STILL ARE NOT
OPERATING.
WE HAVE A LOT MORE WASTE WATER
GOING INTO THE SYSTEM.
THEY DIDN'T CALL THIS AN
OUTBREAK.
I WOULD HAVE CALLED IT AN
OUTBREAK.
THEY CALLED THE NEUROVIRUS IN
THE SHELTER AN OUTBREAK.
BUT THAT WAS CERTAINLY IF YOU
TAKE THE DEFINITION OF AN
INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF
ILLNESSES AND TIME AND SPACE OF
THE COMMON EXPOSURE, IT FITS THE
DEFINITION IN MY MIND.
AND THIS IS A VERY UNUSUAL
EXPOSURE WHERE IT'S BY CONTACT.
THESE PARTICULAR INFECTIONS.
AND SO I WOULD HAVE CALLED THAT
AN OUTBREAK BUT IT WASN'T IN
THIS CASE.
AND EVEN THE DIARRHEA, IF YOU
LOOK AT THE DIARRHEA THAT WAS
REPORTED N-RESPIRATORY DISEASE,
IT WAS STILL -- IT WASN'T CALLED
AN OUTBREAK BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE
WERE COMING INTO THE CLINICS AND
TO THE OUTPOSTS WITH BOTH
DIARRHEA AND RESPIRATORY
DISEASE.
I JUST WANT TO EN BY SAYING THAT
MANY PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO LOOK
AT MODELING.
I KNOW NIH FUNDED THE MIDAS
PROJECT WHERE WE ARE TRYING TO
UNDERSTAND THE MODELING OF
INFECTIOUS DISEASES.
WE HAVE A 7 INSTITUTION CENTER
CALLED, CAMERA, WHICH IS TRYING
TO LOOK AT INFECTIOUS DISEASE
MODELING AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL
PIECE INTO IT.
HOW DO WE MODEL THE
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE PIECE AND
BRING THIS IN RELATIONSHIP TO
THESE THINGS?
AND SO THIS IS THE USE OF
QUANTITATIVE MICROBIAL RISK
ASSESSMENT.
WE ARE STARTING TO LOOK AT
WHETHER WE CAN START TO BUILD
COMPLICATED MODELS WHEN WE LOOK
AT FLOODING.
WE HAVE CHOSEN 5 ORGANISMS WHERE
WE HAVE DOPE RESPONSE DATA SETS
AND BASICALLY I'M GOING GIVE YOU
SOME OF THE INITIAL ANALYSIS.
THIS IS PROBABLISTIC ASSESSMENT
AND IT USES VARIABILITY OF
CONCENTRATIONS OF THESE
ORGANISMS IN SEWAGE.
UNTREATED SEWAGE.
HAVE YOU THAT DISTRIBUTION.
YOU HAVE A DISTRIBUTION AROUND
THE SURVIVAL OF THESE ORGANISMS
IN WATER.
AND HAVE YOU GOT A DISTRIBUTION
AROUND THEIR PROBABILITY OF
INFECTION GIVEN A CERTAIN
EXPOSURE.
SO WE SET UP A CERTAIN SCENARIO
AND WE LOOKED AT RISK.
I'LL POINT OUT A COUPLE OF
THINGS HERE.
IF YOU GET TO SOMETHING LIKE
HEPATITIS AND WROTA VIRUS YOU'LL
SEE THIS FLATLINE ALONG THIS
TIME THIS.
IS TIME AND PROBABILITY OF
INFECTION.
THIS IS THE 50%ILE AND THE 90
PER SEATBELTILE LEVEL OF
RISK -- PERCENTILE -- THIS IS A
10% RISK TO GIVE YOU
PERSPECTIVE.
THIS FLATLINE RIGHT UP HERE IS
RELATED TO HIGH POTENCY
PATHOGENS WHICH MEANS THAT
EXPOSURE TO LESS NUMBERS STILL
GIVES YOU HIGH PROBABILITY OF
INFECTION.
BECAUSE YOU HAVE THAT, EVEN WITH
DILUTION OF SEWAGE AND THAT TYPE
OF THING AND THE VARIABILITY
AROUND THE CONCENTRATIONS, IT'S
HIGHLY INFLUENCED, HIGH RISK
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS.
THEN YOU SEE THAT DECAY RATE
START TO INFLUENCE THE RISK OVER
TIME.
HERE YOU CAN SEE THAT WE STILL
HAVE VERY HIGH RISK IN THE
DEVELOPING WORLD.
WE HAVE ENTRY TO SEWAGE MIXING
WITH WATER THAT PEOPLE ARE GOING
TO IN GEST WITHOUT TREATMENT.
IF WE AD ADEQUATE CHLOR NATION,
WE CAN REDUCE THIS RISK IN THE
FIRST FEW DAYS.
MAYBE DOWN TO 10 MINUS 3.
NOW IS THAT SEBL?
ONE OUT OF EVERY 1,000 PEOPLE?
-- ACCEPTABLE -- SO THIS IS WE
ARE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND ONE OF
THE VARYABLES HERE IN LOOKING AT
THOSE 3 AREAS&I'LL BE HAPPY TO
TALK TO ANYBODY THAT IS
INTERESTED N.MORE ABOUT THIS.
SO ADAPTATION.
I THINK WE NEED AS THE SPEAKER
SAID BEFORE, BETTER ASSESSMENT
OF INDEMNIC DISEASE, INFECTIONS
AND ANIMALS AND HUMANS.
THESE ARE OUR SOURCES FOR WATER
BORNE PATHOGENS.
AND I KNOW IN THE UNITED STATES
WE ARE TRYING TO COME UP WITH A
CONSOL DAYLIGHTED DATABASE WHERE
WE CAN ACT AS WHAT IS GOING ON
IN ANIMAL POPULATION, LIKE IN
THE DOMESTIC ANIMALS.
HOW THEY HAVE -- HOW MANY COW
ARES -- COWS ARE INFECTED WITH
X, YAND Z.
MATCH THAT UP WITH HUMANS IN
TIME AND SPACE.
WE DON'T HAVE A GOOD WAY TO DO
THE WILDLIFE YET.
ADD THAT TO THE MIX.
WASTE WATER TREATMENT IS NEEDED.
IF WE LOOK AT THE 30 BILLION
DOLLARS OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS,
IT'S NEEDED FOR US TO INVEST IN
OUR INFRUSTRUCTURE.
I'M CONCERNED THAT WE ARE MOVING
MORE AND MORE TOWARDS MORE OF
THOSE PERFECT STORMS.
WHERE WE CONVERGE, CLIMATE, AND
WEATHER PATTERNS WITH OUR
INADEQUATE INFRUSTRUCTURE AND
EXPOSURE TO THESE PATHOGENS.
BOTH FROM THE ZONATIEXPR. HUMAN
SOURCES.
WE HAVE TO HAVE ACCESSMENT
SOURCES -- AND WE HAVE MOLECULAR
TOOLS TO ASSESS THE SOURCES.
WE HAVE DONE THAT IN KATRINA TO
LOOK.
THERE WAS A LOT OF QUESTIONS
LIKE IS THIS COMING FROM SEWAGE
AND IS THE SEWAGE STILL THERE?
AND HOW LONG DO WE HAVE TO GO
WITHOUT THIS MODELING?
WHETHER WE STILL GOT CONCERN AND
SEND MEANT.
SO WE NEED MORE MONITORING TO
GATHER TRANSPORTING EXPOSURE
DATA.
EVENT MORATORRING IS REALLY
TYPICAL.
IF YOU HAVE EVER BEEN OUT IN A
STORM TRYING TO MONITOR.
AND MONITORING THE PEOPLE IS
DIFFICULT IN AN EVENT BECAUSE
YOU'RE TRYING TO MANAGE THESE
PROBLEMS AND IT'S TYPICAL.
I THINK WE CAN USE THESE MODELS
TO START TO ADDRESS LEVELS OF
CONCERN, ESTABLISH HYPOTHESIS,
ESTABLISH WHAT OUR DATA GAPS
ARE, START TO LOOK AT WHERE WE
CAN PUT OUR MONEY OR OUR
ADAPTIVE DOLLARS TO START TO
PREVENT.
COULD WE HAVE PREVENTED THE
ISLAND IF WE HAD BEEN MORE COG
SENT OF THE FACT THAT WE NEEDED
TO INVEST IN THEIR WASTE WATER
INFRUSTRUCTURE ON THIS LITTLE
ISLAND AND PERHAPS THEIR
DRINKING WATER INFRUSTRUCTURE.
THIS IS MY INTEREST IN KIND OF
LOOKING AT MICROBIAL DETECTION
AND WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE
WATER SIDE AND THE WEATHER AND
CLIMATE CHANGE AND RISK.
TRYING TO BRING THAT ALL
TOGETHER SO WE CAN UNDERSTAND
HOW WE PROVIDE WATER SECURITY
AND SAFETY AND THEN TO PRESENT
NEXUS BETWEEN QUANTY AND QUALITY
AND THESE OTHER FACTORS.
SO, THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR
INVITING ME
[APPLAUSE]



>> ANY QUESTIONS FOR JOAN ROSE?
>> I HAVE A QUESTION FOR YOU.
I WONDER IF YOU COULD COMMENT ON
THE ROLE OF CAPEOS AND
CONCENTRATED ANIMAL SEATING
OPERATIONS AS A SOURCE?
>> WELL, I DO THINK THAT
PROBABLY CAPEOS AND JUST THE BYE
WAY WE HANDLE ANIMAL MANURE IN
GENERAL ARE A ISSUE.
IT'S NOT CLEAR TO ME IT IS SIDES
RELATED.
ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WITH CAPEOS
IS THOUGHT IF YOU HAVE ONE FARM
EVEN A SMALL SPHARM, AND THEN
YOU HAVE ANOTHER LARGE FARM,
THEY LAND SUPPLY IN A VERY BROAD
GEOGRAPHIC REGION.
WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO MAP.
WE CAN MAP MAYBE WHERE THE
CAPEOS ARE BUT KEPT MAP THAT
CAPEO OR THAT SMALL ANIMAL FARM
EVEN THEIR IMPACT BECAUSE THEIR
IMPACT FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE IS
WHERE THEY ARE PUTTING THEIR
MANURE IN MANY CASEOS LAND AND
WHETHER THEY ARE PUTTING IT ON
LAND.
SO WE ARE LACKING THAT
RESOLUTION.
NOW THE GOODBYES ARE A DIFFERENT
STORY.
BECAUSE THE LA GOONS DO LEAK AND
THEY ARE ALLOWED TO LEAK BY
DESIGN.
I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.
SO REALLY IT'S THE SOIL
CHARACTERISTICS, SATURATION THAT
INFLUENCES TRANSPORT TO
GROUNDWATERS AND GROUNDWATER
SURFACE WATER INTERACTION.
THERE ARANT DOATLE
INCIDENCES --ANTIC DOATLE
INCIDENCES, WHERE APPLICATION ON
LAND OR A LEAKY TANK, HAS
RESULTED IN AN OUTBREAK.
SO, WE DO HAVE OR WE KNOW IT
OCCURS.
BUT CAN WE LOOK AT IT FROM A
BIGGER PICTURE AND THEN PUT IN
BETTER POLICY?
I THINK ANIMAL MANURE SHOULD BE
TREATED BEFORE IT'S PUT ON LAND.
I THOUGHT MANURE SHOULD MEAN
LIKE BIOSOLIDS IN A RULE THAT WE
HAVE A BECIAL PRODUCT WITHOUT
HOAR - BENEFICIAL -- AND I DON'T
THINK MANURE MEETS THAT
DEFINITION.
SO SOMEBODY SAID, AGRICULTURAL
COMMUNITY, I WAS CALLING IT
ANIMAL WASTE.
IT'S CALLED MANURE.
MANURE.
WHEN YOU TELL ME IT'S BENEFICIAL
WITHOUT HARM THAT'S WHAT TING
SHOULD BE.
AND SO, THAT'S A HUGE CHALLENGE
TO TAKE CARE OF THE SOURCE&IT'S
EVEN MORE DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT'S
LIGHT AND STRIKE.
IT'S NOT AS DRAMATIC AS A POINT
SOURCE AS WHERE YOU CAN GO RIGHT
TO THAT EXCEPT FOR TILE
DESCRAINS.
WE HAVE TILE DRAINS FOR POINT
SOURCES AND WE HAVE WATER
QUALITY.
IN THE BACK, I HAVE SOME OTHER
PUBLICATIONS WHERE WE TRIED TO
CLAIM THAT LAND USE AND WATER
QUALITY CHANGES BUT NOT DISEASE
OUTBREAKS.
BUT IT'S A DIFFICULT CHALLENGE
AND I THINK WE NEED TO DO A
BETTER JOB IN THAT.
[LOW AUDIO]
>> I'LL ANSWER IT IN A COUPLE OF
WAYS.
LIEGE NELLA IS A NATURAL AQUATIC
BACTERIUM AND WE FIND IT IN
GROUNDWATER, SURFACE WATERS AND
A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM.
IT LIKES WATER.
WE DON'T ALWAYS FIND THE SPECIES
IS ASSOCIATED WITH HUMAN
DISEASE.
WE ACTUALLY HAVE RESPONSE DATA
FOR LIEGE NELLA AND WE CAN
GET -- IT WAS DEVELOPED IN
ANIMAL MODELS, NOT HUMANS.
BUT WE HAVE TRIED TO TEST ITS
APPLAUSABILITY AGAINST OUTBREAK
DATA.
BUT IN JESHELS, WE HAVE A
PROBABILITY OF
INFECTION -- JECIALS.
THE RISKS START TO BECOME
UNACCEPTABLE WHEN THE LIEGE
NELLA NUMBERS GOAT A CERTAIN
RATE AND IT IS BY RATE.
THERE IS SPORADIC CASES THEY
THINK ARE FROM THE SHOWER AND
THE REST MAY BE COMING FROM
CHLORINE TOWERS AND OTHER
THINGS.
SENSITIVE POPULATIONS ARE HIGHLY
AT RISK.
WE DON'T KNOW WHETHER
TEMPERATURES.
WE KNOW IT LIKES TO GROW IN
TEMPERATURES AND WITH THE
AMOEBA.
WE DON'T KNOW IF IT'S THE
CLIMATE OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENT IS
INFLUENCING THESE WATER BORNE
DISEASES OR ENGINEERED CLIMATE
SO TO SPEAK AND HOW MUCH OF OUR
PIPES CHANGING.
LIKE PIPES CHANGE PG
TEMPERATURES.
SO IS THE PIPES CHANGING, IS THE
MOEBA CHANGING?
WHERE THEY HAD OUTBREAKS, THEY
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO -- THEY KNEW
IT WAS IN THE GROUNDWATER,
SPHROX IN NEW SON WHERE THEY HAD
OUTBREAK IN THEIR
HOSPITAL -- FOR EXAMPLE IN
TUCSON.
THEY HAD NO MONITORING SYSTEM
FROM THE GROUNDWATER INTO THEIR
DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AND NO POINT
WHERE THEY WERE TRYING TO
PREVENT IT.
AND THERE IS A LOT OF DISCUSSION
FROM A DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
STANDPOINT OF WHAT CLIMATE MEANS
FOR THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM IN
TERMS OF BREAKS OF PIPES,
OLDFRAIN STRUCTURE AND BIOFILM
CHANGES.
SO WE DON'T KNOW AND I DON'T
KNOW ANYBODY THAT ANALYZED LIEGE
NELLA IN THAT REGARD.
BUT I DO THINK IT'S A WATER
BORNE DISEASE.
I THINK IT'S RELATED TO THE
NICHE THAT ITS ABLE TO GROW IN
TO A HIGH ENOUGH CONCENTRATION
TO CAUSE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
ATTACKS&I THINK WE CAN ADDRESS
THAT.
>> SURVIVOR OF VERMONT CRUD,
WHICH WAS AN INFECTION AND
PNEUMONIA THAT HAPPENS ALMOST
EVERY WINTER, IT WAS ONLY AFTER
THE BIG LIEGE NAIRS OUTBREAK
THAT PEOPLE STARTED LOOKING AT
THE BACTERIA THAT WAS GIVING US
PNEUMONIA.
AND A LOT OF US USED
HUMIDIFIERS, PUT A PAN OF WATER
ON THE WOOD STOVE, GREENHOUSE
HUMID I'VE INDICATION, AND I
THINK -- HUMIDIFICATION.
AND I THINK WE WERE DOSING
OURSELVES WITH THIS STUFF.
>> YES.
I THINK WATER GROWS THINGS AND
STAGNANT WATER REALLY LIKES TO
GROW THINGS AND I THINK IF WE
TAKE SOME WATER WITH THE RIGHT
MIX, IT'S GOING TO -- ESPECIALLY
FOR CYSTIC FIBROSIS PATIENTS AND
OTHERS.
THERE IS GOOD DOCUMENTATION THAT
IS COMING FROM THE WATER SYSTEM.
AND TO MOST OF US, IT'S NOT A
PROBLEM.
AND SO I THINK WE HAVE TO THINK
MORE ABOUT THIS MICROBIAL
EXPIEWP HOW WE HANDLE
WATER -- SOUP.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT RECREATIONAL
WATER BORNE DISEASES, ONE OF THE
HIGHEST SYMPTOMS IS RESPIRATORY
DISEASE.
AND THAT WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE
ECOLOGICAL AGENTS ARE WHEN WE
SIM IN THE -- SWIM -- IN THE
POLLUTED WATERS AND AMIENT
WATERS.
WHAT ARE THE ECOLOGICAL AGENTS
CAUSING RESPIRATORY DISEASE FROM
THAT ROUTE?
THERE MAY BE OTHER THINGS THAT
WE HAVEN'T THOUGHT ABOUT.
[APPLAUSE]



>> WE ARE NOW GOING TO TAKE A
BREAK UNTIL 10:45.
WHEN WE GET BACK, DR. COLWELWILL
CONTINUE THE WATER THEME
FOLLOWED BY DR. LINTHICUM.



>> IF YOU COULD PLEASE TAKE YOUR
SEATS, WE'LL TRY TO GET GOING.



>> WELCOME BACK.
WE'RE GOING TO JUMP INTO CLIMATE
CHANGE, THE OCEANS AND HUMAN
HEALTH.
AND OUR SPEAKER IS WELL-KNOWN TO
YOU, RITA COLWEL MICROBIOLOGIST
WORKING ON CHOLERA FOR MANY
DECADES LOOKING FOR THE
ENVIRONMENTAL RESERVOIR AND
FOUND IT FOR ALL OF US.
AND AS YOU KNOW, IS HEAD OF
NSF FOR 6 YEARS AND CONTINUES TO
WORK GLOBALO THIS ISSUE AND IT'S
A GREAT PLEASURE TO WELCOME RITA
COLWEL.



[APPLAUSE]
>> MY APOLOGIES.
I HAVE LARYNGITIS.
SO I WILL PERCENT VEER AND I ASK
YOUR INDULGENCE.
IT'S IRONIC TO BE AT NIH GIVING
A TALK ON DISEASE WHILE I'M
SICK.
YOU ALREADY HAVE SEEN THIS SLIDE
PRESENTED BY STEVE MORE SO BUT I
THINK IT'S USEFUL -- STEVEN
MORSE -- WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A
WHOLE SERIES OF DISEASES.
I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT IN FACT IT'S
DUBOIS TO A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
PASSENGER TRANSFER AROUND THE
WORLD.
AND FRANKLY, I BELIEVE THAT MY
LARYNGITIS IS DUBOIS TO BEING ON
A DELTA FLIGHT FROM MI SULA
MONTANA TWO DAYS AGO WITH A
FELLOW NEXT TO ME COUGHING HIS
HEAD OFF.
PERHAPS YOU MIGHT WANT TO DO THE
STUDY OF TRANSMISSION OF DISEASE
VIA AIRCRAFT.
BUT IN ANY CASE, THIS IS WHERE
EVERYBODY IS GOING TO AND FROM.
AND I THINK THAT IT TELLS US
THAT ALL THE CONTINENTS OF THE
WORLD ARE IN FACT TRANSPORTING
PEOPLE, GOODS, VERY RAPIDLY.
FORTUNATELY, NOT ONLY PEOPLE AND
GOODS, BUT ALSO KNOWLEDGE GETS
TRANSPORTED VERY RAPIDLY.
SO AS AN EPIDEMIC, WITHIN A
MATTER OF MONTHS, ALLOWED US TO
DETERMINE NOT ONLY THAT IT WAS A
CORONA VIRUS, BUT THAT JUST MORE
RECENTLY THAT IT WAS PROBABLY
THE RESERVOIR.
AND MORE INTERESTINGLY, WE NOW
CAN DOWNLOAD FROM THE WEB,
PROBABLY 2-3 HUNDREDS OF
SEQUENCES WE DIDN'T HAVE AT THE
TIME OF THE OUTBREAK 3-5 YEARS
AGO.
NOW JONATHAN SUMMARIZED A RATHER
NICE SLIDE, MANY OF THE TOPICS
THAT WE HAVE BEEN COVERING
TODAY.
AND WE'RE FOCUSING PRETTY MUCH
ON THE SPECIFIC DISEASES CAUSED
BY BACTERIA VIRUSES.
I'M GOING TO EMPHASIZE A WATER
BORNE DISEASE THAT I PREFER TO
CONSIDER A VECTIBLE DISEASE AND
YOU'RE GOING TO FIND THAT
SURPRISING BUT I HOPE LIE THE
END OF MY TALK, YOU WILL AGREE
WITH ME THAT CHOLERA IS PERHAPS
A VECTOR BORN DISEASE.
WE HAVE HEARD A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
SEASONALITY.
THIS IS CAMP LA VECTOR.
JOAN ROSE MENTIONED IT.
IT'S A 10 YEAR STUDY I DID WITH
AN DROW PEARSON IN ENGLAND
COVERING THIS IN ENGLAND AND IN
WHALES OVER THE PERIOD
1990-2,000.
AND YOU CAN SEE A VERY DRAMATIC
SEASONALITY IN THE SPRING MONTHS
YEAR AFTER YEAR.
THERE IS AN INCREASE OF THIS
VECTOR.
WE WERE ABLE TO TRACE IT TO
WATER AND IN FACT, THOSE
COMMUNITIES THAT DREW ON SURFACE
WATER DEMONSTRATED THIS

REMARKABLE SEASONALITY.
THOSE THAT DREW ON GROUNDWATER
DID NOT.
AN INTERESTING SIDE BAR IS THAT
YOU SEE FROM THE TOP CHART, RED
INDICATES CHILDREN UNDER THE
AGES OF 4.
GRAY ARE THOSE OVER 70.
SO IT'S CHILDREN THAT ARE VERY
SUSCEPTIBLE.
THE LOWER BAR, OR THE LOWER
CHART, YOU SEE BLUE ARE MALES,
RED ARE FEMALES.
NOW THE MALES ARE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE.
THE UNIVERSITY OF GEORGIA
FOOTBALL TEAM SHOWED THEIR MACHO
CAPACITIY, THEIR TESTOSTERONE BY
EATING RAW CHICKEN AND CAME DOWN
WITH THIS.
SO MUCH FOR MACHO.
IN ANY CASE, IT IS WATER BORNE
AND IT IS A RESERVOIR IN
CHICKENS BUT THE SEASONALITY I
THINK IS REMARKABLE.
STEVEN MORSE ALREADY TOLD BUS
THIS VIRUS.
I SUMMARIZE HERE THE AREA IN THE
UPPER LEFT, THE RED IS FROM
MODELING THE AREAS THAT ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE HIGH RISK.
THE WORK OF GREG FLOSS AT
HOPKINS WITH THE LATE TERRYIATES
OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW
MEXICO -- YAITS.
GAVE US THE BACKGROUND OF
UNDERSTANDING THE VIRUS BEING
RESIDENT IN THE DEER MICE
POPULATION AND THE TRANSMISSION
THROUGH THE EXCRETION IN THE
URINE, AND THEN THE DESTROY
VIRUS, DESTROYED URINE BEING
N.INHALED BY SWEEPING AND
SCUFFING UP THE DUST.
THE INTERESTING POINT ABOUT THE
GEOGRAPHIC STUDY THAT WAS DONE
WAS THROUGH THE MODEL THAT WAS
DEVELOPED, IN AN AREA THAT IS IN
LINE IN RED, IS ACTUALLY THE
CANYON WHICH THE NATIVE-AMERICAN
INDIANS SAID IF YOU WENT INTO
THAT CANYON, YOU COME OUT SICK.
SO THERE VE ENFORCEMENT FROM A
LEDGE THAT HE UNDERSTAND IS VERY
INTERESTING.
AND THE WORK OF TERRY
YATSE-- YATESSHOWS AS YOU HAVE A
EL NINO EVENT IN 91 OF 92 AND
97-98, THAT THERE WAS MORE FOOD
FOR THE MICE.
THIS LED TO LARGER POPULATIONS,
TRANSMISSION OF THE MICE OF A
VIRUS AMONG THE MICE, AND THEN
THEREFORE MORE INFECTED RODENTS
AND THE GROWN VIRUS.
AND AGAIN JUST SUMMARIZING THE
PARTICULAR ENVIRONMENT RELATED
DISEASE.
ONE POINT THAT I WOULD LIKE TO
EMPHASIZE IS THAT THE
ENVIRONMENTAL BURDEN DISEASE
REALLY RESTS ON THE POPULATIONS
OF AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE SOUTH OR THE
THIRD WORLD.
LET ME USE THE CASE OF COLRAR TO
REALLY DRILL DOWN ON THIS
INTERACTION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
AND THE DISEASE.
WE SPENT 30 YEARS STUDYING
CHOLERA AND WE HAVE FOUND SOME
VERY INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT
THIS BACTERIUM AND ABOUT THE
DISEASE CHOLERA.
IT'S CERTAINLY WE ALL KNOW IT'S
CAUSED BY A BACTERIUM WITH THE
CAPACITIY TO ATTACH TO SURFACES
SHOWN IN THE LOWER LEFT,
ATTACHED TO THE MOUSE -- AND
SIMILAR BEHAVIOR IN THE HUMAN
AND IN THE LOWER RIGHT IS A
SCANNING ELECTRON MIKEO GRAPH
SHOWING THE ABILITY TO FORM
ATTACHMENT STRUCTURES.
THE DISEASE IS AN ANCIENT ONE.
THE EVIDENCE AND STORY
DESCRIPTION GOES BACK TO SAND
SCRIPT WRITING.
WE HAVE BEEN TOLD OVER THE YEARS
THAT THE ORGANISM FOLLOWS A PATH
FROM THE EN DEMIC AREAS.
I WOULD LIKE TO DISWADE YOU OF
THAT NOTION BY THE END OF THIS
TALK.
IN ANY CASE, IT'S A RAPID ONSET.
THIS IS A WOOD CUT FROM 1832, AN
EPIDEMIC IN PARIS.
WITHIN 24 HOURS, YOU CAN GO FROM
BEING WELL, TO BEING DEAD.
THE DISEASE WAS IN THE UNITED
STATES AND UP UNTIL 1900, WHEN
WE INTRODUCED WATER TREATMENT,
IT WAS EPIDEMIC.
AND POINTED BYE OUT BY STEVEN
MORSE AND OTHERS, THE DISEASES
THAT WE ASCRIBE TO THE THIRD
WORLD WERE DISEASES IN THE U.S.
UNTIL THE INTRODUCTION OF SAFE
DRINKING WATER AND BETTER
SANITATION.
WASHINGTON D CWAS CONSIDERED TO
BE SWAMP SIMPLY BECAUSE OF
YELLOW FEVER AND WHATEVER.
IT'S A DIFFERENT REASON BUT
STILL A SWAMP.
[LAUGHTER]
THE BEGINNING OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
WAS WITH JOHN SNOW WHO CREATED
THE GHOST MAP, TERMED BY A
JOURNALIST, STEVEN JOHNSON, WHO
WROTE A BOOK, PUBLISHED JUST
LAST YEAR CALLED, THE GHOST MAP.
IN THIS A GHOST MAP OF JOHN SNOW
WHERE I HIGHLIGHTED IN RED HIS
DOTS SHOWING DEATH.
AND HE HE IS ASCRIBING THE
DISEASE, CHOLERA TO WATER
CONTAMINATED AND TAKEN FROM THE
BROAD STREET PUMP.
NOW THE MYTH IS THE HANDLE WAS
TAKEN OFF BY JOHN SNOW AND THE
DISEASE ABATED.
IN FACT, THE DISEASE DIDN'T
DECLINE IN SUPPORT.
THAT WAS -- CEMETERY -- SEP 10
BEM.
IT WAS A NATURAL EVENT IN
THEICALLY KLINE.
A COUPLE OF THINGS ABOUT JOHN
SNOW, HE WAS FAMOUS FOR
INTRODUCING -- AND HE WAS THE
PHYSICIAN FOR QUEEN VICTORIA IN
DELIVERING HER 7th CHILD AS
A PAINLESS CHILDBIRTH.
HE OF COURSE TESTED HIS
ANESTHESIA ON HIMSELF AND
DELIVER DIED AS A DRUG ADDICT AT
A EARLY AGE.
HIS ELEGANT WORK YOU ASSUME
WOULD HAVE BEEN ACCEPTED
IMMEDIATELY.
IT WASN'T.
IT WAS FIERCELY OPPOSED BY THE
WATER SANITATION ENGINEER OF
LONDON AND IT TOOK ANOTHER 20
YEARS BEFORE THE MYTH OF JOHN
SNOW -- BECAUSE UNDERSTANDING
CHOLERA TRANSMISSION THROUGH
DRINKING WATER WAS FINALLY
ACCEPTED.
NOW IN SUMMARIZING HERE, 30
YEARS WORK, AS FOLLOWS.
WE HAVE SHOWN THAT WITH SUNLIGHT
IN WARNING OF A SEA SURFACE IN
THE SPRING, PHYTOPLANK ON TO THE
CHLOROPHYLL VARYING ORGANISMS
BECOME ABUNDANT.
THE MICROSCOPIC CATTLE OF THE
SEA, GRAZE ON THE PHYTOPLANKTON
AND THEY BECOME ABUNDANT.
A SINGLE -- CARRIES ABOUT 10,000
TO 100,000.
SO THEY NORMALLY ARE PRESENT IN
MAYBE ONE OR 10 PER LITER BUT
WITH THE BLOOMS MAY HAVE A 10 OR
100 FOLD INCREASE, WHICH GIVES
AN INFECTED DOSE, WHICH IS ABOUT
A MILLION CELLS PER MILLILITER.
AND I'D LIKE TO EMPHASIZE THE
DATA THAT JOAN ROSE SHOWED.
ONLY 25% OF THOSE INFECTED END
UP IN HOSPITALS.
75% MAY HAVE A MILD DIARRHEA AND
NOT SHOW UP IN A DOCTOR'S
OFFICE.
IT'S VERY MUCH DOSE DEPENDENT.
IF YOU HAVE ONLY A FEW CELLS,
AND YOU'RE NOT NECESSARILY
HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE AND YOU'RE
PRETTY HEALTHY OTHERWISE, YOU
MAY HAVE ONE BOUT OF DIARYRA AND
THAT'S IT -- .
BUT FOR CHILDREN WHO ARE MALL
NOURISHED AND ARE GETTING THIS,
THAT'S WHEN THE DISEASE BECOMES
EPIDEMIC AND LETHAL.
LET ME TAKE YOU NOW - EYE WANT
TO TAKE TO YOU THE COUNTRIES OF
THE WORLD WHERE CHOLERA OCCURS.
PERU IN 91 AND 92, HAD A
HORRENDOUS EPIDEMIC OF CHOLERA.
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS WERE ILL
AND THOUSANDS WERE DEAD.
AS A RESULT OF THE DISEASE.
WE HAVE USUALLY ASCRIBED THE
ORIGIN OF CHOLERA AS BEING
INDONESIA INDIA AND BANGLADESH.
HERE I WANT YOU TO NOTE THAT THE
HIMALAYANS PLAY A ROLE WITH THE
MONSOON RAINS DRIVING THIS INTO
DELTA AND THE WINDS AND THE
CURRENTS DRIVE UP INTO THE RIVER
A SEEDING OF THE PLANKTON.
THIS IS THE AREA WHERE WE HAVE
DONE MOST OF OUR WORK, BANK LA
DESH.
AND THESE AREAS ARE THE HOTSPOTS
OF CHOLERA IN THAT PROVINCE OR
LET'S SAY, COUNTY OF BANGLADESH.
THE DISEASE'S RAPID ONSET, THE
UPPER RIGHT IS THE CHOLERA STILL
USED TODAY AS A TRUE MEASURE OF
THE FLUID LOSS FROM DISEASE AND
IN THE HOSPITAL IT'S A LOWER
RIGHT.
THE HOSPITAL BEGAN MY WORK 35
YEARS AGO WITH SIMPLY A SLAB,
CANVASS ROOF, AND THE CANVASS
SIDES WERE DROPPED DURING THE
MONSOON RAINS.
NOW WITH THE HYPOTHESIS ON THE
LEFT, THE BACTERIUM ASSOCIATION
AND CONGESTION BY PEOPLE WITH
WATER TREATMENT, AND THE
INCIDENT OF THAT, THE TRIGGERING
BEING SUNLIGHT IN SEA SURFACE
WARMING, IT OCCURRED TO US THAT
WE COULD PROBABLY MONITOR THE
ONSET OF THE DISEASE USING
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE
SENSORS ON SATELLITES.
AND THIS INDEED PROVED TO BE THE
CASE.
AND WITH A SERIES OF SATELLITES
SHOWN ON THE RIGHT, WE HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO GET HISTORIC DATA AS
WELL AS CURRENT DATA IN THE
FIRST STUDY WE DID THERE IS A
CORRELATION OF SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AS IT INCREASES.
THERE IS A TIME DELAY WHEN
CHOLERA EP DEMMICS OCCURRED.
THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
SEA SURFACE HEIGHT AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE
DISEASE.
AND THE DISEASE IS VERY MUCH
RELATED TO THE CLIMATE EVENTS OF
EL NINO THIS IS THE 97-98 EL
NINO.
THE BRIGHTER THE RED, THE HIGHER
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE&YOU
CAN SEE THAT THERE WAS A SPRING
AND THEN AGAIN A FALL WARMING.
THE SPRING AND FALL WARMING
OCCURRED NATURALLY BUT WITH EL
NINO THEY ARE MUCH MORE INTENSE.
SO YOU CAN SEE THE 98 SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN JUNE AND
THEN AGAIN IN THE FALL.
DIRECTLY CORRELATED WITH CHOLERA
EVENTS.
PUTTING THE DAYA -- DATA INTO A
MODEL THAT INCLUDED THE
SATELLITE DATA BUT 10 YEARS OF
GROUND TRYING DATA THAT WE HAVE
BEEN ACCUMULATED AND I MUST
ADMIT AND THANK NIH FOR FUNDING
THE WORK.
STUDYING CONNECTIVITY AND
DISSOLVED OXYGEN AND TEMPERATURE
AND CHLOROPHYLL AND OTHER
PARAMETERS, IDENTIFYING THE
PLANKTON THAT ARE PRESENT, WE
HAVE BEEN ABLING TO DETERMINE
VERY NICELY A CORRELATION IN A
NEW SET OF DATA FROM 98 TO 2000
WHICH SHOWS INDEED IT WAS VALID.
NOW THE 2003 NOMLY TO THE RIGHT
WAS A DELAYED ONSET OF MONSOONS.
SOCIETY PREDICTED CHOLERA RATE
WAS LESS FOR THE SPRING MONTHS
BECAUSE OF THAT DELAY.
THE MODEL IS HOWEVER, A VERY
USEFUL PREDICTED ONE.
NOW CHOLERA IS A CONTINUING
SERIES PROBLEM.
IN 91-92, WITHOUT THE -- JUST IN
LATIN AMERICA, THERE WERE
350,000 CASES AND 4,000 DEATHS
JUST UP TO DECEMBER.
BY THE TIME IT WAS OVER.
IT WAS CLOSE TO 4-500,000
VICTIMS AND 10,000 DEAD FOR THAT
PARTICULAR EL NINO.
IN ECUADOR WHERE I DIDN'T WANT
TO -- WHERE I DID A LOT OF WORK
DURING THE 91-92 EPIDEMIC, IT
WAS A SERIOUS PROBLEM BECAUSE
THE ONLY TREATMENT WAS
INTERVENUS REHYDRATION AND WE
HAD TO TRIAGE THE PATIENTS AND
UNFORTUNATELY WE HAD MOLECULAR
GENETIC RAPID TEST THAT ALLOWED
US TO TRIAGE THOSE WHO NEEDED TO
GO ON IVAND THEN THE SALMONELLA
AND OTHER DISEASES VICTIMS COULD
SIMPLY BE TREATED BY
ANTIBIOTICS.
THE 97-98 EL NINO, GAVE US AN
OPPORTUNITY TO DO AN EXPERIMENT
IN THE ENVIRONMENT.
THIS WAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
HAVING BEEN TOLD 4-5 YEARS AHEAD
OF TIME THAT THERE BOOKKEEPER'S
SECOND EL NINO -- THERE WOULD BE
A SECOND EL NINO.
WE CALLED OUR COLLEAGUES FROM
BRAZIL, ARGENTINA, CHILLY, AND
TRAINED THEM IN THE DETECTION
TECHNIQUES OF GENE PROBES AND
MONOCLONAL ANTIBODIES SO THEY
COULD GO TO THE SITES WHERE
THERE WAS EP DEMMICS DURING THE
91-92 EL NINO AND BEGIN
MONITORING IN SEPTEMBER,
OCTOBER, NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, 97
INTO 98.
OF COURSE THAT'S SPRING AND
SUMMER MONTHS.
AND SURE ENOUGH, THEY WERE ABLE
TO DETECT THE BACTERIUM IN THE
WATER IN INCREASING NUMBERS FROM
SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND
UNTIL CASES BEGAN TO OCCUR AS
THE NUMBERS GOT HIGHER.
THAT ALLOWED US TO HAVE A TRIAL
AND ESSENTIALLY CARRY ON AN
EXPERIMENT AS WE MIGHT HAVE DONE
IN A LABORATORY.
THIS SHOWS THE RELATIONSHIP
YELLOW AT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND AGAIN THE RED IS
THE CHOLERA NUMBERS OF CHOLERA
CASES DURING THE 97-98 PERIOD OF
TIME.
SAME PATTERN.
NOW, THE CASES OF CHOLERA IN 3
STEARPS MONITORED BY
US -- CITIES -- DURING THE 97-98
PERIOD BECAUSE THERE HAD BEEN A
PAPER PUBLISHED SAYING IT WAS
91-92 EPIDEMIC WAS REALLY CAUSED
BY A SHIP GOING INTO FEMA HARBOR
AND DROPPING ITS BOWS.
AND THAT SHIP HAD COME FROM A
CHOLERA INDEMNIC REGION.
WELL, IN THE 97-98 EPIDEMIC, AN
OUTBREAK OF CHOLERA, WE FOUND IT
SIMULTANEOUSLY, 1500 KILL METERS
NORTH AND SOUTH CASE IS WERE
OCCURRING.
FURTHERMORE, WE WENT BACK TO THE
91-92 HOSPITAL RECORDS, THIS IS
WORK DONE WITH BRAD AND JON
JOHN'S HOPKINS AND CLAUDIA AND
HANA GILL IN PERU.
AND OUR TEAM.
AND WE LOOKED AT THE RECORDS FOR
THE HOSPITAL ADMISSION 6 MONTHS
EARLIER THAN THE CHOLERA
EPIDEMIC IN 91-92.
AND WE OBSERVED THAT THERE WERE
CASES OF DIARRHEA BEGINNING TO
BE ADMITTED.
AND IF IT'S GOING TO BE 1500
METERS NORTH, KILL METERS NORTH
ACCIDENT SOUTH LIMA, IT'S
IMPOGHT POSSIBLE FOR ONE SHIP TO
HAVE CAUSED THAT EPIDEMIC.
 IMPOSSIBLE.
THESE ARE THE RESULTS OF A 97-98
STUD THEY WE DID.
YOU CAN SEE FOR OR KEEP B.



THE BARS OF THE CASES AND THE
LINES ARE THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND THE EL NINO
WARMING.
SO IS THAT CORRELATION IS VERY
STRONG.
SIMILARLY FOR THE DATA, IN
MEXICO, IN THIS CASE, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE RAINFALL AND
THEN THE CHOLERA IS THE DARK
LINE AND YOU CAN SEE THE
CORRELATIONS.
THIS WORK WILL BE PUBLISHED
SHORTLY IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL
MICROBIOLOGY JOURNAL.
UNBEKNOWN TO US, WORKING ON A
PHDTHESIS IN FRANCE, A SCIENTIST
TOOK THE PAPERS THAT WE HAD
PUBLISHED AND CARRIED OUT THE
SAME ANALYSIS FOR HIS PHDTHESIS
AND HE DOWNLOADED THE WHO DATA
AND THE SATELLITE DATA.
AND RAINFALL&HE WAS ABLE TO DO
THE CALCULATIONS USING WAVE
ANALYSIS, PHASE ANALYSIS,
COHERENCY ANALYSIS, AND HE
SHOWED THAT FOR THE PERIOD OF
90-94 AND AGAIN OTHER EL NINO
THAT OCCURRED LATER, THAT THE
SAME PATTERN WAS OBSERVED FOR
GHANA AND FOR THE LATIN AMERICA.
RIGHT NOW, 95, 96, AND
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A VERY
LETHAL STRAIN OF CHOLERA MAKING
ITS WAY AROUND SENEGAL.
AND THE INTERESTING THING ABOUT
THIS PARTICULAR SITUATION IS YOU
CAN SEE THE NUMBERS OF DEATHS IN
RED.
AND THE TOTAL NUMBER OF CASES IN
BLUE.
THE DEATH RATE IS ABOUT 20%.
NORMALLY IT'S ABOUT 2%.
SO WE FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN ABLE
TO GET OUR HANDS ON THE CULTURES
AND SINCE WE ARE IN THE PROCESS
OF SEQUENCING ABOUT 50 RELATED
CHOLERAS TO GIVE A SENSE OF
EVOLUTION AND GEOGRAPHY OF
CHOLERA, THIS MIGHT BE ABLE TO
TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT THIS
PARTICULAR STRAIN.
THE CASE US ARE TYPICAL IN THAT
PARTICULAR REGION OF AFRICA.
AND AGAIN, WHAT'S FASCINATING
FOR THE 92 -- 2005 OF THIS
BEGINNING OF THIS OUTBREAK, YOU
CAN SEE IN THE UPPER LEFT, THE
NOMLY THAT IS THE RED INCREASE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFF THE
COAST OF SENEGAL.
AND THE NOMLIES IN SEA LEVEL
HEIGHT.
AND JOAN ROSE MENTIONED WIND AND
WAVES.
INDEED, SEA SURFACE HEIGHT PLAYS
A MAJOR ROLE AND AGAIN, THE
GREEN SHOWS ANOMALY INCREASED
HEIGHT DURING THE OUTBREAK IN
2005.
SO, WATER PRECIPITATION ANOTHER
FACTOR.
AND SO THESE CORRELATIONS HAVE
BECOME VERY, VERY STRONG FOR
THAT REGION.
SUMMARIZING THE DATA, WHICH WE
ARE NOW PREPARING FOR
PUBLICATION IN THE UPPER LEFT
ARE THE DATA FOR BANGLADESH.
IN THE LOWER LEFT, ARE THE DATA
FOR CALCUTTA.
WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING THOSE
DATA IN COLLABERATION WITH A
FORMER STUDENT WHO IS NOW THE
DIRECTOR OF A NATIONAL CENTER
FOR CHOLERA AND INHERENT
DISEASES IN CALCUTTA.
THE UPPER RIGHT IS GHANA.
AND THE LOWER RIGHT IS LIMA.
IT HASN'T BEEN AS CONSISTENT A
COLLECTION OF DATA IN LIMA BUT
NEVERTHELESS, THE PATTERN CAN BE
DISCERNED.
WE ARE NOW LOOKING TO SEE WHAT
WHETHER WE CAN PREDICT EVEN
EARLIER WHEN THESE EP DEMMICS
WILL OCCUR AND THAT IS BY
LOOKING 3 MONTHS AHEAD OF TIME
AT THE SATELLITE DATA SOUTH OF
INDIA.
I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS WORK WITH
DR. RAGU AND HIS TEAM AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND WHO ARE
OCEANOGRAPHERS AND PLANKTON
EXPERTS.
AND BY LOOKING AT THE ANOMALY,
MEANING MORE THAN USUAL, HIGHER
CHLORRA FILL THAN USUAL, SOUTH
OF INDIA, AND THEN FOLLOWING THE
WAVES AT THE CURRENT THAT DRIVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF
INDIA UP INTO THE BAY OF VEN
GAL, THAT GIVES US A LEAD TIME
AND SURE ENOUGH, BY CALCULATING
THE ZOPLANKTON NOMLIES THAT MOVE
ON UP INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL, WE
FEEL WE HAVE 3, PERHAPS 6 MONTHS
PRECEEDING THE OUTBREAK OF
CHOLERA AND A PREDICTED
CAPACITIY JUST EVEN EARLIER THAN
WE HAD BEFORE.
MOST OF THE WORK HAS BEEN DONE
IN THE BARRIER REGION OF THE BAY
OF BENGAL.
TWO LITTLE AREAS IN PINK OR RED.
THESE ISLANDS ARE SUBJECT TO
FLOODING.
AND I WANT YOU TO KEEP NA IN
MIND WHEN I TALK ABOUT SEA LEVEL
RISE.
WE ARE NOW HONING IN ON JUST
WHICH ONE OF THOSE ZOPLANK TONS
ARE THE CULPRITS CARRYING THIS.
WE KNOW FROM THE ANALYSIS WE
HAVE DONE TO DATE THAT -- MAKE
UP 50% OF THE ZOPLANKTON IN THE
AREAS HERE.
THIS IS INTERESTING BECAUSE
THESE ARE MANGROVE SWAMPS AND
THE ZOPLANKTON SPECIALISTS HAVE
KNOWN FOR DOZENS OF YEARS THAT
COPODS ARE DOMINANT IN THE ROOTS
OF THE MANGROVE TREE.
THAT'S SORT OF WHERE THE NOTION
THAT BANGLADESH IS THE SOURCE OF
CHOLERA.
IT SIMPLY IS BECAUSE IT IS THE
COMBINATION OF THE HOST, THE
TEMPERATURES, THE SELINNITY AND
TITLE EVENTS ALL COMING TOGETHER
FOR THAT PERFECT STORM, SO TO
SPEAK AND FOR CHOLERA TO BE
DOMINANT.
SO, WE ARE IN THE PROCESS NOW OF
HAVING 10 YEARS OF DATA WHERE WE
HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH OUR VERY
GOOD COLLEAGUES IN BANGLADESH
WHO ARE EXPERTS ON IDENTIFYING
PHYTOPLANKTON AND ZOPLANKTON IN
GETTING THESE SPECIFIC COPA POD
SPECIES THAT CARRIES THE
CHOLERA.
WE NOW KNOW THAT THERE ARE 3
GROUPS OF ZOPLANKTON THAT ARE
DOMINANT.
FASCINATINGLY, ALL CONTAIN KITE
NEB THEIR STRUCTURAL
COMPOSITION.
WHY DO I MAKE A FUSS ABOUT THAT?
IT'S BECAUSE AWL THEY ARE ALL
CHITON DIGESTERS.
AT A THEY PLAY A NATURAL ROLE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT.
WE KNOW THEY CAN ERADICATE THEM
FROM THE ENVIRONMENT, BECAUSE
THAT IS WHAT THEY DO.
RECYCLE CARBON AND ALSO
NITROGEN.
AND THE COABA -- COPA PODS FEEL
THE MOST INTERESTING SEASONAL
PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS THAT IN
FACT THEY ARE MORE CLOSELY
RELATED TO THE CARRYING THE
CHOLERA DISEASE.
SO, LET ME SUMMARIZE BY SHOWING
YOU ON THE LEFT HERE THE
BACTERIA THAT ARE INCREASINGLY
ABUNDANT WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WARMING AND THE
INCREASE OF PHYTOPLANKTON THAT
LEADS TO THE FOOD OF THEIR
NATURAL HOST.
AND THEN THE NATURAL HOST, COPA
POD, IS FED ON BY SHELLFISH AND
IT IS ASSOCIATED AS WELL WITH
CRABS.
AND THAT OF COURSE MEANS THAT
PEOPLE WHO WILL PICK UP AND EAT
CONTAMINATED SEAFOOD OR DRINK
CONTAMINATED WATER WILL THEN
CARRY THROUGH THE TYPICAL PERSON
TO PERSONNASM LIVE INDICATION OF
THE DISEASE.
-- AMPLIFICATION.
AND I WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU
THAT IN A DIVE, ON ALVIN, WE
WERE ABLE TO ISOLATE COPA PODS.
AND THIS WAS AT 2,500 METERS
DEPTH AND IT WAS 250 MILES OFF
THE COAST OF OREGON.
AND, SINCE WE HAD SEQUENCED THE
CHOLERA AND DETERMINED TWO
CHROMOSOME SEQUENCES IN 2000,
YOU JUST NOW COMPLETED CAUSING
PENITATING AND CLOSING THE -- WE
ISOLATE FRIDAY THE COPA PODES
FROM THAT DEEP SEA HYDROTHERMAL
REGION.
AND FOUND THAT IT'S 98% SIMILAR
TO THE CHOLERA.
IT'S FASCINATING THAT THIS
ORGANISM FROM THE DEEP SEA IS SO
CLOSELY RELATED.
IT'S ALSO VERY CLOSELY RELATED
TO VIB RECALL -- IT MAY BE ANNAN
CESTER.
I DON'T SAY ARCHAICKIC BUT
PERHAPS HISTORIC OR ANCESTRAL.
IN TERMS OF JEANOLOGIES OF THAT
BACTERIUM.
SO NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT THE
GENOMICS OF THIS AND WE HAVE
COMPLETED THE FULL SEQUENCES OF
ABOUT 27 STRAINS THROUGH THE
GOOD WORK OF MARIA AND FAUCI
FROM THE NIAIDPROVIDEING THE
FUNDING AND ALSO FROM LOS ALAMOS
NATIONAL LAP LABORATORY, AND TOM
AND RON WHO MADE THE FUNDING
POSSIBLE WORKING TOGETHER.
WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEQUENCE
THESE TO DATE AND PROBABLY WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL SEQUENCING,
SHOULD HAVE A TOTAL NUMBER OF
AROUND 50 WHEN WE COMPLETE BY
THE END OF IS THIS YEAR.
LOOKING AT THE DATA TO DAID
DATE, ONE OF THE INTERESTING
FINDINGS WAS THAT FIB ROW MIM
CUSS, WHICH MANY OF US THOUGHT
MIGHT BE SIMPLY A CHOLERA WITH
JUST A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES
TURNS OUT TO BE SEPARATE
SPECIES.
AND WE HAVE ISOLATED SOME NEW
SPECIES.
THE POINT I WANT TO MAKE HERE IS
THAT WE CAN NOW DEVELOP A
BIOGEOGRAPHY AND THERE ARE TWO
IMPORTANT POINTS TO MAKE.
ONE IS THE DISEASE ARRIVES AS
LOCALLY.
IT IS NOT TRANSPORTED AROUND THE
WORLD.
IT IS PRESENT INESTIARIES,
RIVERS, AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD WHEN THE TEMPERATURE
IS RIGHT IT BECOMES ABUNDANT.
THE OUTBREAKS ARE COLONIAL AND
VERY, VERY LOCAL.
WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF
GATHERING THE DATA ON THAT.
AND SO, NOW WE ARE NOW ABLE TO
HAVE A COMPARATIVE GENOMICS OF
THIS SPECIES TO DETERMINE THE
CORE GENES, THE VARIABLE GENES
AND THEN THE OTHER JEANS
THAT -- GENES THAT MAY BE PICKED
UP AND DEFIND THE SUB SPECIES
STRAINS.
SO WE HOPE TO BE ABLE TO HAVE A
MECHANISM OF EVOLUTION WERE THIS
AND TO DEFINE THE PAN GENOME AND
WHAT DEFINES THE SPECIES.
THIS IS JOAN.
JOAN SHOWED THIS EARLIER.
THIS IS WATER BORNE DISEASE IN
THE UNITED STATES.
BUT THIS IS A PATTERN WE HAVE IN
THIS COUNTRY.
SO I WANT TO MAKE THIS POINT,
BECAUSE THOUGH WE DON'T HAVE
CHOLERA, WE HAVE VIB ROW -- AND
IT IS PERHAPS EVEN NASTIER IF IT
GOES SIS STEMMATIC.
IT LITERALLY LIQUEFIES THE
INTERNAL ORGANS.
NOTICE IN THE UPPER LEFT,
SEATTLE, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS
THERE ARE SOME OUTBREAKS OF VIB
ROW -- FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
HISTORY WE ARE HAVING OUTBREAKS
IN ALASKA AND THAT'S BECAUSE THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
TEMPERATURE IS A MAJOR DRIVER.
WHEN IT REACHES 15 DEGREES
CELSIUS OR ABOVE, THE ORGANISM
POLICE OFFICER ACE.
NOW JUST -- PROLIFERATES.
NOW JUST A FINAL COMMENT OF THE
MODELS OF SEA LEVEL RISE, YOU
CAN TICK A VERY CONSERVATIVE
ESTIMATE OR TAKE A VERY LITTLE
ESTIMATE.
IF YOU TAKE FAIRLY LIBERAL, 3
METERS SEA LEVEL RISE MEANS IF
YOU'RE LIVING IN MIAMI YOU MAY
WANT TO BUY A HOUSEBOAT
[LAUGHTER]
WITHOY ONE METER SEA
LEVRISE -- WITH A ONE
METER -- THE LIGHT BLUE AREA OF
SAN FRANCISCO IS UNDER WATER.
SO SOME OF THE SAN FRANCISCO
CHRONICLE PUBLISHED THIS LAST
YEAR.
BUT FOR LANG LA DESH, IT'S
TRAGEDY.
20% OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
PERMANENTLY UNDER WATER AND WE
WILL HAVE MILLIONS OF REFUGEES.
AND YOU MAY THINK, WELL, THAT'S
REALLY SAD.
BUT IT'S NOT GOING TO EFFECT US.
WELL, THERE IS ALREADY
DISCUSSION ABOUT THE
RESPONSIBILITY OF A DEVELOPED
WORLD TAKING IN THOSE REFUGEES.
SO, THIS CAN LEAD TO SERIOUS
SOCIAL DISORDER, ECONOMIC
DISRUPTION AS WELL AS PROBLEMS
IN THE NATIONAL SECURITY.
AND IT'S THAT AREA, HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE HIMALAYAS AND THE
BARRIER ISLANDS THAT WILL BE
PERMANENTLY UNDER WATER.
SO, LET'S BE WORIED.
TIME MAGAZINE SAYS, LET'S BE
VERY WORIED.
AND ROBERT COKE, NOT KNOWN TO BE
AN ENVIRONMENTALIST, SAID IN
1884, I'M NOT A SUPPORTER OF THE
EXCLUSIVE DRINKING WATER THEORY.
I THINK THE WAYS IN WHICH
CHOLERA CAN SPREAD IN A PLACE
THAT IS EXTREMELY DIVERSE AND
THAT IS ALMOST EVERY PLACE HAS
ITS OWN PECULIAR CONDITIONS,
WHICH MUST BE THROUGHLY SEARCHED
OUT.
THE MEASURES WHICH ARE USED FOR
PROTECTING
PROTECTING THAT PARTICULAR PLACE
FROM A PESTILENCE MUST
CORRESPOND TO THESE CONDITIONS.
HE WAS TALKING ABOUT
ENVIRONMENTAL INTERACTIONS IN
THE CLIMATE RELATIONSHIPS BUT OF
COURSE DIDN'T KNOW IT.
SO I CONCLUDE BY SAYING THAT WE
CANNOT WORK IN A WAY THAT WE
THINK WE CAN PROJECT OURSELVES
IF WE DON'T COLLABORATE
INTERNATIONALLY.
AND EMERGING DISEASES,
REEMERGING DISEASES AND ALL OF
THE DISEASES, WEATHER IT'S OF A
DEVELOPING COUNTRY OR A
DEVELOPED COUNTRY, THE UNITED
STATES, IS OURS.
IT IS NOT SOMEONE ELSE'S.
AND THE COLLABRATORS I'D LIKE TO
THANK IS THE INTERNATIONAL
CENTER FOR DISEASES RESEARCH
INCLUDING PHYSICIANS,
MICROBIOLOGISTS, SO ISOLOGISTS,
STUDENTS, COLLEAGUES, VISITORS,
NASA AIMS, OTHER COUNTRIES, AND
EZERIE WAS VERY HELPFUL IN
HELPING US WITH THE MAPPING.
AND I DO HAVE TO THANK NOAH AS
WELL AS NIH, AND NSF, FOR
FUNDING THE WORK WE HAVE DONE
OVER THE LAST 35 YEARS.
THANK YOU.
AND I HOPE NEXT TIME I SPEAK TO
YOU I SOUND A LITTLE BIT BETTER.



[APPLAUSE]
QUESTIONS FOR RITA COLWEL?
YOU HAVE TO HAVE A LITTLE SHOT
OF RUM FOR HER TOO.
>> YOU TALKED A LOT ABOUT
SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES BUT
HOW MUCH IS THAT CORRELATED WITH
THE SLINNITY?
SO YOU SHOWED ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS THIS RIGHT-HAND USE
CHANGE, THE DESTRUCTION OF
THESTIARIES, THE WETLANDS,
ANDSOME THINGS ARE CHANGING,
LAYERING OF THE WATER AND SA
LINTY, FILTRATION IS CHANGING.
WHAT ARE THOSE CORRELATIONS?
>> SA LINTY IS A VERY IMPORTANT
FACTOR.
WE SHOWED THIS 20 YEARS AGO THAT
FIB ROW CHOLERA IS IN CHESAPEAKE
BAY.
IT'S THERE.
AND IT HAS BEEN EVEN THOUGH WE
DON'T HAVE CHOLERA.
BUT IT IS ONLY DOWN TO MID BAY
WHERE THE SA LINTY IS 15 PARTS
PER 1,000.
SORT OF HALFWAY BETWEEN SEA
WATER AND FRESHWATER.
AND THEN OFTEN PEOPLE SAY, WELL,
PEOPLE GOT CHOLERA FROM
LAKES&THAT'S BECAUSE AGAIN
STUDIES WE DID 25 YEARS AGO
SHOWING THAT YOU CAN SPARE THE
SODIUM REQUIREMENT IF YOU HAVE
LESS AMOUNTS OF -- SO IN A
FRESHWATER SYSTEM IS A LOT OF
CALCIUM AND JUST ENOUGH SODIUM
TO KEEP THE INTEGRITY OF THE
WALL.
AND THERE ARE FRESHWATER COPA
PODS AND THERE IS AN ASSOCIATION
WITH COPA PODS.
AND THERE IS SOME WORK THAT WAS
DONE BY TRISH IN AUSTRALIA
WORKING ON CHOLERA OUTBREAK IN
AUSTRALIA WAY UP STREAM BEYOND
THE TITLE EFFECT OF THE RIVERS
FROM WHICH PEOPLE WERE DRINKING
THE WATER.
SA LINTY IS A CRITICAL FACTOR.
>> I'M CURIOUS ABOUT THE
TEMPORAL LAGS BETWEEN YOUR
DIFFERENT ENVIRONMENTAL
PARAMETERS THAT YOU'RE
EVALUATING ON THE DISEASE CASES
AND WHAT IS THE RANGE OF THOSE
TEMPORAL LAGS?
>> IT'S VERY INTERESTING.
WE HYPOTHESIZED IN 1985 THAT
THERE WOULD BE ABOUT 4 WEEKS
BASED ON THE PHYTOPLANKTON
GROWTH PERIOD, 4 WEEKS, 2-4
WEEKS FOR ZOPLANKTON PEAK AND
THEREFORE THERE SHOULD BE 6-8
WEEK DIFFERENCE FROM THE ONSET
OF SEA LEVEL RISE N.AND THE
CASINGS OF CHOLERA.
I WILL NEVER FORGET WHEN I WAS
WORKING WITH BYRON WOOD AND BRAD
AND WE DID THE CALCULATIONS AND
BINGO.
IT WAS 6-8 WEEKS.
AND SO, IT'S THAT DELAY UNTIL
YOU GET THE INCREASED NUMBERS OF
ZOPLARNG TON WITH THE INCREASED
NUMBERS -- PLANKTON.
IT WAS ONE OF THOSE WHERE YOU
DANCE AROUND AND SAY, WE DONE
IT.
SO IT WAS A VERY GOOD
CORRELATION.
NOW FOR SOME BUTTERED RUM.
>> THANK YOU.
[APPLAUSE]
>> AND YOUR STORY ABOUT THE RAW
CHICKEN REMINDS ME OF ANOTHER
TRUE STORY.
A GOOD LEAD INTO LOU.
1991 DURING THE EPIDEMIC OF
CHOLERA IN PERU, THE MINISTER OF
COMMERCE, I BELIEVE, WENT ON
TELEVISION AND ATE RAW FISH TO
PROVE THAT IT WOULD NOT RELATE
TO CHOLERA AND HE WAS -- HE
WOUND UP IN THE HOSPITAL.
[LAUGHTER]
>> [INAUDIBLE]
>> SO HE DID WIND UP IN THE
HOSPITAL WITH IVOOF FLUIDS AND
TET -- IV FLUIDS AND TETRI
PSYCHE LEAN.
IT DID EFFECT THE MARKETS.
SCHISM EXPORTS WERE
DOWN -- SHRIMP.
TOURISM TRAVEL WAS DOWN AND I
MENTION THAD THAT ALSO BECAUSE
THERE ARE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
OF EPIDEMICS AND OF DISEASE AND
THIS IS CLEARLY AN ISSUE OF THAT
WE ARE ALL AWARE OF.
AND AS PART OF THE POLITICAL
MOTIVE FOR TALKING ABOUT THE
ECONOMICS OF DISEASE, THAT STORY
SORT OF LED ME TO THINK ABOUT
THE HEALTH ECOLOGICAL AND
ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES.
WE WENT TO RIO IN 92.
THE RIO SUMMIT AND TALKED ABOUT
THIS CONNECTION WITH CHOLERA AND
THE ENVIRONMENT.
IT WAS LARGELY IGNORED AND LATER
PUBLISHED IN THE JOURNAL, BUT
ONE JOURNAL DID PICK UP ON THIS
STORY AND THAT WAS THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL
[LAUGHTER]
SO, FOR THAT, 16 INTILDZ WHAT WE
SPEND -- BILLION
DOLLARS -- ASTHMA PER YEAR AND
WE ARE ABOUT TO HEAR A STORY
ABOUT SOMETHING WE DIDN'T THINK
ABOUT 10 YEARS AGO, THE ROLE OF
CARBON DIOXIDE IN PLANTS THIS.
GOES WITH THE USDAAND A PIONEER
IN THIS FIELD AND I WELCOME
LEWIS SIS CA
[APPLAUSE]
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THE
KIND INVITATION.
I DON'T KNOW IF PAUL MENTIONED
IT OR NOT BUT I'M THE MONTY
PYTHON SCIENTIST OF THE GROUP.
I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU SOMETHING
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AND TO
INTRODUCE TO YOU TO THIS TOPIC
COMING FROM THE PLANT SIDE OF
THINGS.
IN PARTICULAR, I WANT TO TALK A
LITTLE BIT ABOUT WARMING BUT I
ALSO WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE
OTHER ASPECT OF RISING CO2,
WHICH WILL ALSO EFFECT ALL LIFE
ON THE PLANET AND ONE THAT
DOESN'T GET TALKED ABOUT VERY
MUCH.
AND AS ALWAYS, THERE IS A FINE
GROUP OF PEOPLE TO THANK TO WITH
REGARD TO THIS RESEARCH.
LET'S GO SORT OF OVER THIS
AGAIN.
WE KNOW THAT ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS
INCREASING.
WE HAVE DIRECT MEASUREMENTS
TAKEN SINCE 1960.
THE AMOUNT OF CO2 IN THE
ATMOSPHERE INCREASED BY 23%.
WE KNOW THIS INCREASE IN CARBON
DIOXIDE IS A RESULT OF EMISSIONS
PRINCIPALLY THE BURNING OF
FOSSIL FEW WHEN YOU TAKE CARBON
AND OXIDIZE IT YOU GET COTOAS A
BIPRODUCT SO EMISSIONS KEPT PACE
WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC
CONCENTRATION.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE PROJECTIONS,
LOOKING AT THE 450 STABLIZATION
OR 650Y STABLIZATION, COMPARED
TO THE BUSINESS AS USUAL, A1 F1
PROJECTION, YOU CAN SEE THAT IN
FACT, IF YOU COMPARE THE ACTUAL
EMISSIONS OF CO2 FOR 05 AND 06,
THEY ARE QUITE HIGHER THAN THE
BUSINESS AS USUAL PROJECTIONS.
SO FOR THOSE OF YOU WHO ARE
CONSERVATIVES THAT BELIEVE THEY
GET IT WRONG, YOU ARE OR HAVE A
THROWING STAND ON HERE, AS IT
WERE.
[LAUGHTER]
SO WHY SHOULD YOU CARE WHETHER
OR NOT CARBON DIE OXIDE GOES UP?
-- DIOXIDE?
WE KNOW THAT IN FACT CARBON
DIOXIDE RESONATES LIKE TWO
STRINGS ON A VIOLIN RESINATE
WHEN YOU TUNE THEM TO THE SAME
FREQUENCY BUT IN THIS CASE WE
KNOW THAT IT RESINATES IN THE
INFRARED PART OF THE SPECTRUM
AND BY DOING SO PREVENTS THE
ENERGY THAT WOULD BE LOST INTO
SPACE FROM LEAVING, THAT THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES GO UP, THAT
CARBON DIOXIDE AND WATER VAPOR
ARE BOTH GREENHOUSE GASSES, THAT
WITHOUT THOSE TWO GASSES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, THE EARTH'S
TEMPERATURE WOULD BE MINUS 18
DEGREES.
THERE IS A NATURAL AMOUNT OF
GLOBAL WARMING THAT DOES OCCUR
AND THAT'S NOT NECESSARILY A BAD
THING.
BUT IT'S FAIRLY CLEAR THAT
ADDING WATER VAPOR OR ZO2 WILL
REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF HEAT
LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE AND
INVERSE PROPORTION TO EACH
OTHER.
WHERE HAVE YOU PLACES ON THE
EARTH WHERE WATER VAPOR IS HIGH,
ADDING CO2 WILL HAVE NOT MUCH OF
AN EFFECT.
CONVERSELY IF YOU HAVE PLACES
WHERE WATER VAPOR IS LOW, IT
WILL INCREASE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE.
WATER VAPOR IS LOW IN THE POLES.
LOW IN THE DESERT AND LOW IN THE
FUNCTION OF ALTITUDE AND LOWER
IN WINTER AND NIGHTTIME.
THAT'S WHEN WE SEE THE LARGEST
INCREASE IN OVER ALL
TEMPERATURES.
2007 WAS TIED FOR THE SECOND
WARMEST YEAR SINCE 1880.
WE MEASUREDDED TEMPERATURE FROM
THE POST WAR LATE 1940s TO
ABOUT THE MID 1980s.
SO WE SEE THIS OVER ALL CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURE IS IN FACT
OCCURRING AND IT IS MOST LIKELY
TIED TO THIS INCREASE IN THE
GREENHOUSE GAS.
NOW, LET ME SEGUE INTO THE
DIRECT EFFECT OF RISING CO2 ON
BIOLOGY.
WE KNOW THAT CARBON DIE OXIDE IS
THE SOURCE OF CARBON FOR PHOTO
SYNTHESIS.
ALL THE CARBON IN YOUR BODY
RIGHT NOW COMES IN FACT FROM
CARBON DIOXIDE THROUGH PLANTS.
PLANTS HAVE THE ONLY ORGANISMS
THAT CAN TAKE LIGHT, THEY CAN
TAKE NEWT EXPRENTS WATER AND CO2
AND PRODUCE FOOD.
-- NUTRIENTS.
THE REST OF US ARE IN FACT JUST
PARASIGHTS.
[LAUGHTER]
PLANTS ARE IMPORTANT.
WE DON'T REALIZED THIS.
WE DON'T THINK ABOUT THEM.
IT'S JUST A NICE GREEN
BACKGROUND MATERIAL WE SEE ON
I-95 AND THERE MIGHT BE A DEER
WE LOOK AT OR BIRD WE LOOK AT
BUT THAT NICE GREEN KURT AN IS
VERY DYNAMIC.
-- CURTAIN.
90% OF ALL LIVING BIOMASS IS IN
FACT PLANT MATERIAL.
PLANTS DEPEND IN TURN ON 4
RESOURCES.
WHAT ARE THE 4 THINGS THAT
PLANTS NEED IN ORDER TO GROW?
I JUST SHOWED IT IN THE PREVIOUS
SLIDE.
>> what: DO PLANTS NEED IN ORDER
TO GROW?
WATER, LIGHT, NUTRIENTS, CO2.
RIGHT?
NOW, HYPOTHETICALLY, JUST USE
YOUR IMAGINATION FOR A MOMENT.
WHAT IF THE AMOUNT OF LIGHT
REACHING THE SURFACE OF THE
EARTH HAD GONE UP BY 23% SINCE
1960?
WOULD PLANTS RESPOND TO THAT?
SURE THEY WOULD.
WOULD ALL 250,000 PLUS PLANT
SPECIES RESPOND IN THE SAME WAY?
NO.
WHAT IF YOU CHANGED THE AMOUNT
OF WATER BY 23%?
WOULD ALL 250,000 PLANT SPECIES
RESPOND THE SAME WAY?
NO.
WHAT ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF
NITROGEN IN THE SOIL?
NO.
AND YET, WE KNOW THAT THERE IS
THESE 4 RESOURCES AND WE KNOW
THAT NOT USING OUR IMAGINATION,
NOT HYPOTHETICALLY, THAT IN FACT
THE AMOUNT OF CARBON DIOXIDE HAS
GONE UP 23% SINCE 1960.
SO IN FACT, WHAT WE SEE IS A
DIFFERENT PLANT SPECIES RESPOND
DIFFERENTLY TO THIS CHANGE IN
RESOURCE.
PLANTS EVOLVE IN A TIME WHEN CO2
WAS HIGHER THAN IT IS TODAY.
INCREASE IN CO2 REPRESENTS A
VERY RAPID CHANGE IN THE NEEDED
RESOURCE AND INCREASING RESULT
IN OVER ALL STIMULATION OF PLANT
GROWTH UP TO ABOUT 1,000 PARTS
PER MILLION.
SO, BUT WAIT A MINUTE.
MORE PLANT GROWTH.
THAT'S DESIRABLE RIGHT?
THAT'S A GOOD THING.
SHIRE QUOTE FROM THE WALL STREET
JOURNAL.
WE ARE LIVING IN A LUSH
ENVIRONMENT OF PLANTS AND
ANIMALS AS A RESULT OF CARBON
DIOXIDE INCREASE THIS.
SAY WONDERFUL AND UNEXPECTED
GIFT FROM THE INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION.
NOW THERE IS A LARGE ASSUMPTION
IN THAT QUOTE.
THE ASSUMPTION OF COURSE IS THAT
CO2 IS A VERY SMART MOLECULE.
BECAUSE IT'S ABLE TO DISTINGUISH
BETWEEN CROPS AND WEEDS.
CO2 CAN DISTINGUISH BETWEEN
INVASIVE PLANTS THAT WE DON'T
WANT TO HAVE GROWING AROUND
[LAUGHTER]
CO2 WILL NOT SIMULATE THE GROWTH
OF POISONOUS PLANTS AND HAVE NO
EFFECT ON POISON I'VEY AND NO
EFFECT ON NARCOTICS LIKE HEROIN.
OR NOT.
[LAUGHTER]
AND POINT OF FACT, GREEN IS NOT
ALWAYS GOOD.
SO, ALL LIFE OF AND ITSELF WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THE INCREASE IN
CARBON DIOXIDE AND AS A PLANT
PHYSIOLOGIST AND A WEED ECOLGIST
HEARING THINGS THAT ARE LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED.
CROP WEED COMPOSITION FOOD
SUPPLY.
THE SPREAD AND BIOLOGY OF
INVASIVE WEEDS AND THE ISSUE I
WANT TO TALK ABOUT TODAY, PUBLIC
HEALTH.
HOW CAN CO2 AND PLANTS -- I MEAN
PLANTS DON'T CARRY DISEASE, SO
HOW COULD THEY POSSIBLY IMPACT
PUBLIC HEALTH?
WELL, HERE SAY COUPLE OF
REASONS.
ALLERGIES AND ASTHMA.
CONTACT DERMATITIS.
POISON, TOXICOLOGY, LET'S LOOK
AT THE FIRST ONE.
WE KNOW THAT PLANTS PRODUCE
POLLEN OVER 3 MAIN SEASONS AND
IN THE SPRING IF YOU GO OUTSIDE
YOU WILL SEE IT'S TREES IN THE
SUMMER IT'S GRASSES AND IN THE
FALL, 90% OF THE POLLEN COMES
FROM RAGWEED.
35 MILLION PEOPLE IN IN THE U.S.
THAT SUFFER FROM RAGWEED
ALLERGIES.
SO WE SET OUT TO LOOK AT TO
DETERMINE POLLEN PRODUCTION.
BY CAPTURING THE POL THEN CAME
OFF THE RAGWEED AND LOOKING AT
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE
AMOUNT OF POLLEN THAT COULD BE
PRODUCED, WAS WE FOUND IF YOU
CHANGE CO2, YOU SEE THAT ON THE
LEFT THAT GRAPH IS THE ACTUAL
BIOMASS OF RAGWEED AT MATURITY
IN GRAMS PER PLANT FROM 280
PARTS PER MILLION.
CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEERN CENTURY.
370, WHICH IS BACK IN THE 90s
WHEN WE DID THIS AND 600 PARTS
PER MILLION OCCURRING BY THE
MIDDLE OF THIS CENTURY.
IN ADDITION TO HAVING A LARGER
PLANT, POLLEN PRODUCTION ALSO
CHANGED FROM ABOUT 5 GRAMS AT
280 TO 11 GRAMS AT 370 TO 20.5
GRAMS AT 600 PARTS PER MILLION
IN ADDITION TO PRODUCING MORE
POLLEN, THE POLLEN CHANGED.
LOOK AT THE PROTEIN ON THE
SURFACE OF THE POLLEN.
WE FIND THAT ANTIGEN A1, THE
PROTEIN ON THE SURFACE THAT
CAUSES ALLERGIES ALSO INCREASES
FOR A PORTION OF THE TOTAL PO
TEEN ON THE SURFACE OF THE
POLLEN.
THIS IS A CHAMBER SCUD STUDY
THAT WAS DONE.
WE DO IT LIKE MOST SCIENTISTS
DO.
LOOK AT THE ONE VARIABLE THAT IS
CHANGING, KEEP EVERYTHING ELSE
AT OPTIMAL LEVELS.
WE ALSO WANTED TO DO IT IN A
DIFFERENT FASHION.
WE ASKED THE QUESTION, IN FACT,
IS CO2 THE SAME EVERYWHERE?
BECAUSE WE LOOKED AT THE MODEL
DATA AND SAID, THE REASON
SUSPECT IT'S AT 10,000 FEET IN
THE MOST ISOLATED PLACE ON EARTH
FI WALK OUTSIDE RIGHT NOW I'M
 I'M
PRETTY SURE THE CO2
CONCENTRATION IS NOT 385 PARTS
PER MILLION.
WE SET UP A GRADEIENT TO MONITOR
CO2 FROM DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE NEAR
THE IN ERP HARBOR TO THE SUBURBS
TO AN ORGANIC FARM.
WE FOUND THIS MORE OR LESS FOR
THE LAST 6 YEARS THAT WE HAVE
DONE THIS, THAT THE AVERAGE
DAYTIME CO2 IN DOWNTOWN
BALTIMORE IS ABOUT 450 PARTS PER
MILLION.
THIS IS NOT MODELS OR
PROJECTIONS.
THIS IS ACTUAL CARBON DIOXIDE
CONCENTRATIONS.
WE KNOW THAT CO2 IS CHANGING AND
WE ALSO KNOW THAT CITIES ARE IN
FACT THAT THE TEMPERATURE FOR
DOWNTOWN BALTIMORE IS ABOUT TWO
DEGREES WARMER THAN FOR THE
ORGANIC FARM CONTROL SITE.
GEE, IF WE HAVE A LOCATION THAT
HAS MORE CO2 AND IT HAS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A LONGER
GROWING SEASON, WHY CAN'T WE USE
THAT IN REALTIME TO SEE HOW
RAGWEED WILL RESPOND?
WE DID.
WE WENT TO THE INNER HARBOR AND
DUG DOWN TO 110 SENT EXPHEERTS
PUT OUT TWO AND SLOTS BUILT THEM
USING THE SAME SOIL, SAME SEED
BANK WHICH CONTAINED 35-40
DIFFERENT PLANT SPECIES AND THEN
WE LOOKED AT WHAT HAPPENED TO
THE RAGWEED FOLLOWING THOSE
PLACEMENT.
WE MONITORED THESE SITES PRETTY
HEAVILY TO LOOK AT MACRO
ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT WE FOUND IS
IF YOU LOOK AT RAGWEED POLLEN
CONCENTRATION IN GRAINS PER
CUBIC METER, AT THE FARM SITE,
YOU SEE THAT AT ABOUT DIE 228,
YOU START GETTING POLLEN.
IT PEEKS AT 245 DAY OF THE YEAR
AND THEN GOES DOWN.
THOSE ARROWS YOU SEE FOR THE
SUBURBAN SITE AND DOWNTOWN URBAN
SITE CORRESPOND TO THE
POLLINATION FOR THE FARM SITE
AND THE MAXIMUM POLLINATION
INITIATION TIME.
WHAT WE SEE IS WE GO TO THE
SUBURBS AND AS WE GO TO THE
URBAN AREAS, WE ARE SEEING
EARLIER ONSET OF POLLEN AND A
TREMENDOUS AMOUNT MORE POL EP
GOING PRODUCED PER PLANT.
REMEMBER, SAME SOIL, SAMERING.
THE THEY THINK STOOD OUT WAS IT
HAD A LONGER GROWING SEEG SEASON
AND MILDER WINTER AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE CARBON
DIOXIDE.
ALL THE OTHER MEASUREMENTS
DIDN'T CHANGE VERY MUCH.
SO THOSE ARE THE THINGS THAT
PICKED UP IN TERMS OF BEING ABLE
TO CORRELATE WITH THE CHANGE IN
POLLEN PRODUCTION FOR RAGWEED.
NOW SOME OF THE CHANGES IN
BIOLOGY CAN BE MORESULTS THAN
THIS.
WE KNOW FOR EXAMPLE THAT PEOPLE
ARE ALLERGIC TO HAY.
IT'S NOT THAT IT IS PRODUCING
POLLEN BUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IS
DIFFERENT THINGS HAVE A
ASSOCIATIVE RESPIRATORY
PROBLEMS.
INCLUDING ASTHMA, ALLERGIC SIGN
YOU SILENTIS AND IT'S THE
SPORES -- SIGN YOU YOUICITIS.
AND IT'S THE SPORES.
WE LOOKED AT TIMOTHY GRASS USED
AS A SOURCE FOR HAY IN THE
UNITED STATES AND LOOK AT THE
TIMOTHY GRASS BEING GROWN UNDER
4 DIFFERENT CO2 CONCENTRATIONS
AND 100% PER MILLION INTERVALS
WHICH IS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM
LEFT HAND GRAPH AND LOOK AT THE
RATE OF SPORE GROWING ON THAT
MATERIAL.
WHAT WE FIND IS THAT AS YOU GROW
TIMOTHY GRASS UNDER HIGHER CO2
YOU GET LESS NITROGEN.
IT'S THAT CHANGE THAT SHIFTS
OVER TO INCREASED SPORES ON THE
PART OF THE FUNGUS THIS.
IS PRELIMINARY DATA BUT WE THINK
THE TRENDS ARE VERY INTERESTING.
NOW, LET ME SEGUE INTO CONTACT
DERMATITIS.
HOW MANY HAVE YOU COME IN
CONTACT WITH POISON I'VEY AND
HAD A REACTION AS A RESULT OF
THAT?
YOU KNOW WHAT THAT LOOKS LIKE.
THIS IS THE DUKE UNIVERSITY
PHASED SITE.
FREE AIR COSTWO ENRICHMENT.
TO GIVE SMU IDEA, THESE ARE
50-60 FEET TALL.
WHAT THEY ARE DOING IS BLOWING
CARBON DIOXIDE INTO THE CENTER
OF THE RING AND THE IDEA WAS TO
SEE HOW MUCH OF THAT CARBON
DIOXIDE WOULD BE TAKEN UP BY THE
PINE FOREST.
AND AS IT TURNS OUT, OF THE
FOREST UNDER STORY AND THE
FOREST ITSELF, THE ONE SPEEDS
THESE SHOWED THE STRONGEST
RESPONSE TO THE CHANGE WAS
POISON IVY.
EXACTLY
[LAUGHTER]
SO THIS IS SOME WORK BY JACK.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE MEAN PLANT
UNDER AMIENT CONDITIONS AT 370Y
AND ELEVATED CONDITIONS AT 570
OVER A 6 YEAR PERIOD, YOU SEE A
CONTINUED SUSSTAINED PRODUCTION
OF POISON IVY.
IN ADDITION TO THAT, WE FIND THE
DIFFERENT OIL IN POISON I'VE
ECONOMY CAUSES CONTACT
DERMATITIS SHIFT.
THERE WAS WORK DONE?
THE THAICTS SHOWS THE -- SHOWED
THE RAINSHOWERIOSE WERE IN FACT
A WAY TO DETERMINE HOW VEER LENT
THE FORM OF THAT OIL WAS.
THE GREATER IT WAS THE MORE
LIKELY YOU WERE GOING TO
BREAKOUT IN A RASH.
WHAT WE FOUND WAS THAT WHEN YOU
EXPOSE THESE PLANTS TO ELEVATED
CO2, YOU HAVE A MORE VEERULANT
FORM OF THE OIL.
SO NOGZ HAVING MORE OF THE IVY,
YOU HAVE A MORE VEERULANT FORM
OF THE OIL BEING PRODUCED AS
WELL.
LET ME SEGUE INTO PLANTS AND
POISONS.
PLANTS CANNOT PULL UP THEIR
ROOTS AND RUN AWAY WHEN THEY ARE
ATTACKED.
WHAT IS THAT A CAN DO IS THEY
CAN PRODUCE SOME OF THE MOST
TOXIC CHEMICALS ON ARGT.
HOW MANY HEARD OF RICIN?
RICIN IS PRODUCED BY CASTER
BEAN.
IT'S ONE OF THE DEADLIEST
POISONS KNOWN TO MAN.
UNFORTUNATELY WE HAVE
ABSOLUTELIY NO DATA ON HOW CO2
AFFECTS TOXICOLOGY OF PLANTS.
I THINK I USED MY GOODWILL IN MY
GROUP STUDYING POISON IVY AND
RAGWEED.
I'M TRYING TO SLOWLY GET THEIR
MIEPPED SET LOOKING INTO
TOXICOLOGY BUT IT'S A UPHILL
BATTLE SO FAR.
HOW ELSE CAN PLANTS EFFECT
PUBLIC HEALTH?
HERE ARE SOME INDIRECT WAYS.
WHEY KNOW THAT PLANTS EFFECT THE
FOOD SUPPLY.
THEY CAN EFFECT THE NUTRIENT
QUALITY.
THEY CAN EFFECT MEDICINE.
THEY CAN EFFECT NARCOTICS.
THEY CAN EFFECT DISEASE VECTOR
BIELGY AND EFFECT PESTICIDE USE.
 BIOLOGY.
WHEN WE LOOK AT COTWO.
AND HUMAN NUTRITION, ONE OF THE
EFFECTS WE SEE ON PLANTS IS A
INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT CARBON
RELATIVE TO THE AMOUNT OF NIGHT
GLEN ALL PLANT PARTS.
WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE PERCENT
PROTEIN IN FLOWER BEING PRODUCED
FROM WEED, WHETHER IT WAS A
VARIETY RELEASED IN 1903 OR
RELEASED IN 1996, YOU FIND THAT
AS YOU INCREASE CO2, YOU
DECREASE PROTEIN CONCENTRATION.
NOW THERE IS IT ALSO WORK ON A
POSITIVE SIDE WITH BOB HERE AT
NIH LOOKING AT OMEGA 3S AND
OMEGA 6S AND VEGETATIVE SOURCES
AND WHAT WE FOUND THERE WAS CO2
RESULTED IN A POSITIVE INCREASE.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS AS CO2
CHANGES, YOU'LL SEE CHANGES IN
THE QUALITY OF THE FOODS THAT WE
EAT.
AND WE DON'T UNDERSTAND THE
CONTEXT OR THE SCOPE OF THOSE
CHANGES QUITE YET.
LET ME JUST MENTION A LITTLE BIT
ABOUT FOOD SUPPLY AND FOOD
SECURITY.
AND LET ME TRY AND DO IT IN THE
CONTEXT OF WATER.
THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF FRESHWATER
BETWEEN THE POLES IS LOCATED IN
THE HIMALAYAS.
WHAT WE SEE, THIS IS A GOOGLE
EARTH SATELLITE AT THE END OF
LAST SUMMER.
INCREASED RATE OF GLACIAL
MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS.
AND AS THEY MELT, YOU WILL SEE
THESE RESERVOIRS CAPTURE THE
WATER HERE.
RIGHT NOW THOSE RESERVOIRS ARE
AT THE BURSTING POINT.
AND AS INCREASE MELTING OCCURS,
OF COURSE YOU'RE GOING TO SEE
INCREASED FLOODING.
THAT'S THE INITIAL RESPONSE AND
YOU ALREADY TALKED ABOUT WHAT
THE IMPACT OF THAT FLOODING WILL
BE WITH RESPECT TO THE PUBLIC
HEALTH.
IN THE LONG-TERM YOU'LL FIND
THAT DROUGHT WILL BE THE END
RESULT.
THAT IS ALL THE RAIN THAT WILL
FALL WILL FALL DURING THE
MONSOON SEASON.
THAT WATER THAT WOULD BE RENTED
BY THE SNOW AND ICE WILL NO
LONGER BE THERE.
AND THAT HAS A TREMENDOUS
IMPLICATION WITH RESPECT TO FOOD
SECURITY.
AND LET ME TELL YOU WHY.
LET'S LOOK AT RICE AND WATER.
THE UPPER RIGHT HAND GRAPH SHOWS
THE GLOBAL ROUGH RICE PRODUCTION
SINCE 1990.
THE AVERAGE AND ROUGH RICE
PRODUCTION HAS GONE UP EVERY
YEAR UNTIL ABOUT 2000.
AND NOW IT'S PRETTY MUCH STUCK
ABOUT 600 MILLION METRIC TONS
THASN'T CHANGED.
THERE ARE 3 CEREALS, RIGHT,
WHEAT AND CORN, SUPPLYING 50% OF
THE FOOD FOR THE 6 1/2 BILLION
PEOPLE ON THE PLANET RIGHT NOW.
RICE IS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH
POPULATION.
WHEAT IS NOT KEEPING PACE WITH
POPULATION.
THE ONLY SERIAL WHICH KEPT PACE
IS CORN -- CEREAL&AS SOON AS I
HEARD THAT SOMEBODY WAS GOING TO
PUT CORN INTO BIOETHANOL, YOU
KNEW THAT FOOD SHORTAGES WERE
GOING TO BE THE END RESULT.
I TRIED TO THINK OF THE CORRECT
SCIENTIFIC TERMINOLOGY TO REALLY
CAPTURE THAT.
I THINK STUPID IS THE ONLY THING
I CAN COME UP WITH
[LAUGHTER]
BUT THE POINT OF ALL THIS IS TO
SHOW THAT WITHOUT IRRIGATION,
WITHOUT THAT WATER INPUT, YOU
CAN NOT HOPE TO MAINTAIN A LEVEL
OF PRODUCTION THAT YOU NEED IN
ORDER TO FEED THAT MANY PEOPLE.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE LOWER RIGHT
HAND GRAPH, WHAT YOU FIND IS
RICE PRODUCTION, 75% OF RICE
PRODUCTION IS OR COMES FROM
IRRIGATED OR PATTY RICE.
25% OR LESS THAN 25% COMES FROM
RAIN FED RICE.
WITHOUT THAT WATER, WITHOUT THE
RIVER SYSTEMS THAT ARE SUPPLIED
BY THE HIMALAYAN GRAISH AL SNOW
PACK, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A
MAJOR -- GLACIAL -- AMOUNT OF
FOOD UNCERTAINTY IN ADDITION TO
CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY.
LET ME SEGUE NOW INTO CO2 PLANTS
AND MEDICINES.
WE KNOW THAT PLANTS ARE A MAJOR
SOURCE OF MEDICINES THROUGHOUT
THE WORLD.
EVEN IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES,
LIKE THE U.S. AND EUROPE, 15% OF
ALL THE PRESCRIPTIONS THAT ARE
WRITTEN ARE DERIVED FROM PLANT
MATERIALS.
BUT IF YOU GO TO DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES, THAT PERCENTAGE GOES
UP TO 85%.
THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT PLANTS
ARE A MAJOR CORNERSTONE OF
PUBLIC HEALTH IN MOST DEVELOPED
COUNTRIES.
BECAUSE THEY KNOW WHAT PLANTS TO
TAKE AND HOW MUCH OF THAT PLANT
TO TAKE IN ORDER TO TREAT
DIFFERENT ILLNESSES.
NOW, HERE IS TO GIVE YOU SOME
SENSE OF SOME OF THAL CACLOIDS
THAT ARRIVED:



HOW MANY USE AT LEAST ONE OF
THESE SUBSTANCES?
[LAUGHTER]
HOW MANY OF YOU USE TWO?
[LAUGHTER]
IF YOU USE 3, THERE IS A 12 STEP
PROGRAM
[LAUGHTER]
THE POINT OF ALL THIS IS JUST
SIMPLY TO SHOW WHAT WE SOMETIMES
FORGET BECAUSE IT'S SO EASY TO
GO TO WALGREENS TO GET YOUR
PRESCRIPTION FILLED IS THAT IN
FACT PLANTS CAN PRODUCE THESE
KINDS OF VERY POWERFUL
SUBSTANCES WHICH ARE USED AS
PART OF YOUR PUBLIC HEALTH.
WHAT WE DID IS LOOKED AT HOW CO2
AND TEMPERATURE EFFECT THE
PRODUCTION OF AT ROW PENE COMING
FROM GYP SON WEED, THE SOURCE OF
THESE TWO DRUGS USED IN TURKEY
AND IN SOME CASES IN INDIA.
WHAT WE FOUND TO MAKE A LONG
STORY SHORT, IS THE
CONCENTRATION OF AT ROW PENE
INCREASES THE FUNCTION OF
TEMPERATURE, CONCENTRATIONS
INCREASES THE FUNCTION OF CO2.
AND THAT BOTH CO2 AND
TEMPERATURES CAN HAVE
IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO
CONCENTRATION BUT BECAUSE RISING
CO2 AND TEMPERATURE ALSO
INCREASE THE GROWTH OF THE
PLANT, THE AMOUNT OF AT ROW PENE
OR THE OTHER THAT COMES PER
PLANT ALSO INCREASES AS A
RESULT.
NOW AT ROW PENE IF YOU EVER BEEN
ON ACTIVE DUTY IN THE MILITARY,
YOU'RE GIVEN A STICK THAT IS AT
ROW PENE, YOU STICK IT IN YOU IF
YOU'RE EXPOSED TO NERVE GAS
BECAUSE IT CHANGES THE COLEAN TO
ALLOW YOUR MUSCLES TO RELAX.
Y AND PAL MEAN IS A VERY SIMILAR
TO EXCITIES.
IT WAS USED BY THE ANCIENT
GREEKS TO GIVE TO WOMEN DURING
CHILDBIRTH TO EASE THE PAIN.
SO THESE ARE VERY POWERFUL
SUBSTANCES.
THE FLIP SIDE OF MEDICINES ARE
OF COURSE NARCOTICS.
IF THE DRUG ENFORCEMENT NEADGES
THEIR WILDEST WEB DREAM MANAGES
TO ELIMINATE 50% OF ALL THE LAND
THAT IS PRODUCING COCA IN SOUTH
AMERICA BUT THE OTHER 50% IS
STIMULATED BY CO2 SO OVER ALL
PRODUCTION DOESN'T CHANGE, YOU
KIND OF LIKE TO KNOW THAT.
EXCEPT WE HAVE NO DATA ON HOW
TOTHIS WILL RESPOND TO CO2.
WE KNOW THAT IN TOBACCO THE
GROWTH INCREASES AS A FUNCTION
OF CO2 AND I'LL SHOW YOU WORK WE
HAVE DONE WITH NICOTINE.
THE MOST AMOUNT OF DATA WE HAVE
IS FROM MARIJUANA GROWERS ON THE
WEB.
[LAUGHTER]
I KNOW.
SADLY VERY FEW ARE PUBLISHED IN
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE
[LAUGHTER]
BUT THERE IS A LOT OF DATA OUT
THERE THAT TELLS YOU HOW MUCH
CO2 TO GIVE YOUR MARIJUANA
PLANT, HOW MANY MORE BUDS YOU
CAN EXPECT AND HOW MUCH MORE
THCYOU CAN GET.
SO THE FACT IS THAT AS YOU
CHANGE CO2, YOU NOT ONLY EFFECT
THE CHANGE IN TERMS OF
CONCENTRATIONS OF BENEFICIAL
MEDICINES, BUT YOU ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ABUSE OF THOSE
MEDICINES AND CERTAINLY DRUG
ABUSE IS CONSIDERED A PUBLIC
HEALTH ISSUES TO LOOK MORE
CLOSELY AT THE ISSUE, WE WENT
AHEAD AND EXAMINED SCIENTISTS
AND WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU
EXPOSE -- TO RISING CO2 LEVELS.
I CANNOT LEGALLY GROW THIS.
THERE IS 130 DIFFERENT SPECIES
TWO.
THAT PRODUCE OPIATES ARE THE
WILD POPPY AND THE COMMERCIAL
POPPY.
IT'S ILLEGAL TO GROW THIS IN
CASE YOU'RE WONDERING.
WE LOOKED AT 3-600 PARTS PER
MILLION.
THESE ROUGHLY CORRESPOND TO THE
CO2 CONCENTRATIONS FROM THE
1950s.
THE CURRENT CO2 AND THAT
PROJECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
CENTURY.
SO WHAT WE FOUND WAS IF YOU LOOK
AT ABOVEGROUND BIOMASS GOING
FROM LEFT TO RIGHT AGAIN, THAT
ABOVEGROUND BIOMAS VERY
RESPONSIVE TO CHANGES IN CO2.
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE GAFF, VERY
RESPONSIVE TO CHANGES.
WE SEE THIS SENSITIVITY EVEN A
SMALL CHANGE BUT WHAT IS SPHWROG
ME IS THE GREATEST RELATIVE
STIMULATION OCCURRED WITH RECENT
CHANGES THAN CO2.
A CHANGE FROM 3-400 PARTS PER
MILLION THAT.
SUGGESTS THE CHANGES ALREADY
OCCURRED AND IT HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE AMOUNTY
ABILITY TO GROW TO PRODUCE MORE
OPIATES.
TO SEE WHAT THAT HAPPENS WITH
RESPECT TO WILD POPPY, HERE ARE
THE REPRODUCTIVE DATA.
CAPS UL NUMBER, WEIGHT, LATEX.
YOU SEE ESSENTIALLY A EXTRA
GROUPELLING GOING FROM 3-600
PARTS PER MILLION&EACH A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
PERCENT OF MORPHINE.
IF YOU LOOK AT PRODUCTION OF THE
DIFFERENTIAL CALLOYDING AS A
FUNCTION OF COSTWO ON A PER
PLANT BASIS, HERE IS WHAT WE SEE
FOR:
THIS IS 3-4 INCREASE INIAL
CALLOYD PRODUCTION THIS.
HAS BEEN ACCEPTED INTO THE
JOURNAL, CLIMATIC CHANGE.
NICOTINE PRODUCTION IS
INTERESTING.
WHAT WE SEE IS NICOTINE PER
PLANT GOES UP.
NOT SURPRISING BECAUSE AS YOU
GIVE THE PLANT MORE CO2, YOU GET
MORE NICOTINE.
BUT CONCENTRATION GOES DOWN.
AND OF COURSE THE CONCENTRATION
OF THE NICOTINE HAS NOT GONE
DOWN IN YOUR CIGARETTES WHICH
SUGGESTS TO YOU THAT WHAT?
[LAUGHTER]
RIGHT.
THEY COULD BE DOING THAT.
NOT THAT THEY WOULD -- ANY WAY
[LAUGHTER]
ONE OF THE THINGS WE ARE
LOOKING -- WORKING ON IS IF WE
SEE THIS CHANGE IN NIGHT
DISWROAN CARBON WITH INCREASING
CO.TWORKS 2, THERE ARAL CALOIDZ
THAT HAVE NITROGEN IN THEM ARE
DECREASING IN CONCENTRATION
WHERE THOSE OF PHARMACEUTICAL
INTERESTS DON'T HAVE A LOT OF
NITROGEN, THEIR CONCENTRATION
WILL STAY THE SAME OR GO UP.
ONE OF THE ONES WE ARE LOOKING
AT NOW IS AN HERBAL REMEDY FOR
MALARIA.
WE DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY THE
PLANT THAT PRODUCES THIS
PRODUCES THIS PARTICULAR COM
FOUND.
WE DON'T UNDERSTAND THE PAL
PATHWAY FOR IT AND DON'T
UNDERSTAND HOW CO2 OR OTHER
CLIMATIC AREAS ARE GOING TO
CHANGE THAT.
THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS WE WANT
TO FOCUS ON.
WE TALKED ABOUT THE FACT THAT
PLANTS ARE NOT DISEASE
VECTORS, PER SE.
HOWEVER, IT'S ALSO MENTIONED AND
SEVERAL TIMES THIS MORNING, WITH
REGARD TO THE ANTIVIRUS THAT
WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, CHANGES IN CO2, YOU
WILL EFFECT FOOD SOURCES&WHEN
YOU EFFECT FOOD SOURCES, YOU ARE
GRG TO EFFECT THE RANGE OF THESE
DIFFERENT DISEASE RESERVOIRS.
AND IN THE CASE OF RODENTS, WE
SAW WHAT HAPPENED WITH EL NINO
EVENT IN THE SOUTHWEST.
BUT TWROPT MOSQUITOES -- BUT
RESPECT -- THEY NEED BLOOD TO
LAY EGGS, THEY USE POLLEN AS A
FOOD SOURCE.
SO IF YOU CHANGE THE ABILITY OF
PLANTS TO PRODUCE POLLEN, YOU
CAN CHANGE THE CAPACITIY OF THE
NUMBER OF MOSQUITO LARVAE.
BUT WE DON'T KNOW MUCH ABOUT IT.
WE DON'T KNOW IF THERE IS IN
FACT A CONCENTRATION OF CO2
AROUND URBAN AREAS, IS THAT
SUFFICIENT TO ACTUALLY ATTRACT
THE MOSQUITO?
WHAT IS THE MINIMUM BASELINE
THAT MOSQUITOES NEED IN ORDER TO
BECOME ATTRACTED TO A GIVEN
SOURCE OR A POINT SOURCE OF CO2?
WITH RESPECT TO CO2 PLANTS AND
PESTICIDES, AT SOME POINT,
SOMEONE IN THE MEETING WILL SAY,
EXCUSE ME, HAVE YOU NEVER HEARD
OF HOME DEPOT?
YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT ROUND UP IS?
YOU JUST GO DOWN, BUY SOME OF
THIS STUFF, SPRAY THE WEED AND
END OF STORY.
THAT'S IT.
[LAUGHTER]
ALL RIGHT.
WHY CAN'T WE JUST CONTROL THE
WEEDS?
IT SEEMS SEPARATE PRETTY
STRAIGHTFORWARD THERE.
IS AN ASSUMPTION THERE.
AS CO2 CHANGES, THAT IN FACT, IT
WILL NOT CHANGE THE EFFICACY OF
THE HERBICIDES YOU ARE APPLYING
TO THE WEED.
AND WE FIND THAT FOR ROUND UP,
THE ACTIVE INGREDIENT IN ROUND
UP, IF YOU LOOK AT THIS MORE
NAUSEOUS WEEDS IN THE U.S., ON
THE LEFT IN THAT CHAMBER, WE
SPRAYED AT THE RECOMMENDED
DOSEAGE, ABOUT 80% CONTROL.
ON THE RIGHT, WE ALSO SPRAYED
WITH THE RECOMMENDED DOSEAGE.
WE GOT 0 CONTROL.
IT TURNS OUT THAT WHEN YOU IEWZ
GIVE THEM MORE CO2, A LOT OF IT
GOES INTO THE ROOTS AND WITH THE
RATIO, THE SAME AMOUNT OF
HERBICIDE IS INSUFFICIENT TO
KILL ALL THE ROOTS AND THEY ARE
CAPABLE OF REGENERATING A SINGLE
PLANT.
SO WE FOUND IT ALL COME BACK
AGAIN.
CAN YOU STILL CONTROL IT?
YESUX YOU YOU CAN BUT INCREASE
THE DOSEAGE.
YOU HAVE TO INCREASE THE NUMBER
OF SPRAYINGS AND THERE IS A
CONSEQUENCE FOR THAT.
THERE IS AN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONSEQUENCE AND THERE IS A
ECONOMIC ONE.
SO JUST BRIEFLY TO SUM UP ALL
THE WORK WE HAVE DONE LOOKING AT
THE EFFICACY AND THE GROWTH RATE
FOR HERBICIDE APPLICATION AND
RECOMMENDED DOSAGES ARE SHOWN
FOR DIFFERENT WEEDS AND
DIFFERENT HERBICIDES AND THEN
SHOWING B, FOR THE SAME
RECOMMENDED DOSEAGE BUT FOR
PLANTS AND WEEDS GROWN UNDER
HIGH CO2.
WE SEE THE EFFICACY IS REDUCED.
THE BASIS FOR THE REDUCTION IS
DIFFERENT DEPENDING ON DIFFERENT
SPECIES YOU LOOK AT.
BUT AGAIN, IT'S MORE PESSIDES
ARE NEEDED, THE MORE TRACE
CHEMICALS WILL OCCUR IN THE
ENVIRONMENT.
AND FINALLY JUST TO WRAP UP, WE
HAVE THEN IN SUMMARY, DIRECT
AFFECTS INCLUDING ALLERGIES,
CONTACTDENTIAL TITIS,
TOXICOLOGY, INDIRECT AFFECTS,
NUTRITION, FOOD SUPPLY,
MEDICINE, SPREAD OF DISEASE
VECTORS AND INCREASED PESTICIDE
USE.
AND FINALLY, WHAT IS USDA DOING?
WE ARE DOING QUITE A BIT
[LAUGHTER]
IN THE LAST 6 YEARS, WE HAVE
LOST ONE FULL-TIMIST AND LAST
WEEK WE LOST ANOTHER TECHNICIAN.
TWOF OUR SCIENTISTS ARE
SCHEDULED TO RETIRE NEXT YEAR.
OUR BUDGET HAS BEEN CUT EVERY
YEAR FOR THE LAST 6 YEARS.
WE HAVE NO MONEY UNDER THE
CURRENT BILL TO STUDY CLIMATE
CHANGE OR FOOD SUPPLY AND OUR
NATIONAL.


>> OKAY, SO‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OR WHOMEVER WHAT I HAVE DONE?
SO IT'S ACTUALLY MASS, IF YOU LOOK AT THIS TIME PERIOD RIGHT IN
HERE, THERE'S VERY STRONG EVES THAT AIR POLLUTION IN THE FORM OF
AEROSOLS WHICH ARE A PROUCT, SAY BURNING DIRTY COAL AND THESE
ARE AIR O SOL‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THIS HAS A COOLING EFFECT.
NOW WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHERE THESE TEMPERATURE TRENDS OCCUR,
YOU NOTICE THAT THEY'RE ALL AT THESE HIGH NORTHERN LATITUDES.
NOW BEFORE I GO TO THAT, I'LL REENFORCE WHAT PAUL EPISTEIN
MENTION THIS MORNING AND THAT IS IF WE LOOK AT GLOBAL WARMING
FOR THE PAST 50 OR 60 YEARS OR SO, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAT
HAS GONE INTO THE OCEANS.
I WILL EXPLAIN LATER HOW THIS IS INFERRED AND ONLY 5 PERCENT OF
THIS HAS GONE INTO WARMING THE ATMOSPHERE AND ANOTHER 5
PERCENT HAS GONE INTO MELTING ICE.
SO WHEN YOU MELT ICE, WHAT HAPPENS IS IT TAKES ENERGY TO DO
THAT AND THEN YOU MOVE ICE FROM BEING WATER IN THE SOLID PHASE
AND INTO THE LIQUID PHASE AND THAT HAS A COOLING EFFECT.
SO THESE ARE THE THREE COMPONENTS OF WHERE THE WARMING HAS
GONE AND MOST OF IT HAS GONE INTO THE OCEANS AND ON LAND
WHERE WE HAVE THESE STRONG TEMPERATURE TRENDS IS THE
LATITUDE.
ABOUT A YEAR AGO THE HEAD OF NASA WAS ON NPR AND THEY CANNED
HIM ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND HE s AUTONOT REALLY IMPORTANT IF
THE EARTH WARMS UP BY 1 DEGREE.
THAT WAS AN IGNORANT STATEMENT.
IT IS IMPORTANT WHERE IT OCCURS, IF YOU OCCURS IN THE NORTHERN
ALTITUDE WHERE THERE'S ICE AND SNOW, THEN THERE IS GOING TO BE A
FEE BACK.
IF IT'S TROPICAL, HE'S PROBABLY RIGHT, HE NEED TO ADD THIS ARK
DITIONAL CAVEAT AND IT'S IMPORTANT AND IT'S PERSON FOR CLIMATE
CONCERNS TO LOOK AT WHERE IT'S HAPPENING.
NOW YOU CAN DO A SIMPLE CALCULATION IN A MICROSOFT EXCEL
SPREAD SHEET WHERE YOU CAN CALCULATE HOW MUCH ENERGY COME
FROM THE SUN, ABOUT 1365‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AND THEN‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE ALBIDOOF THE EARTH, HOW MUCH IS REFLECTED BACK INTO SPACE
AND THEN YOU CALCULATE THE ABSORBED ENERGY AND THEN FROM
THAT YOU CAN MOVE BACK TO WHAT THE TEMPERATURE IS, BECAUSE
THE EARTH IS A PERFECT RADIATOR.
AND WHEN YOU DO THAT YOU SEE FOR A 1 PERCENT CHANGE IN OUR
AVERAGE REFLECTIVITY, YOU WILL WARM OR COOL THE EARTH BY 1
DEGREE CENTIGRADE.
THIS IS WITHOUT AN ATMOSPHERE AND AS WAS MENTIONED BEFORE
THAT BECAUSE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERE, MUCH WE'RE MUCH WARMER
THAN WE WOULD BE IF WE DIDN'T HAVE AN ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS A
SIMPLE CALCULATION.
THIS SHOWS YOU WHERE THE FEEDBACK COMES IN.
AS YOU MELT ICE AND NO SNOW, BECAUSE DURING THE LAST GLACIAL
MAXIMUM, A 30 OR ABOUT A THIRD WAS COVERED BY ICE AND SNOW
AND THAT WAS REFLECTING A LOT OF UNERGY FROM THE SUN BACK
INTO SPACE.
SO AS THAT STARTED TO MELT IT HAD THIS POSITIVE FEEDBACK OF
WARMING UP THINGS MORE AND CONVERSELY AS ICE AND SNOW
EXPAND YOU'LL COOL THE EARTH.
OKAY, NOW ICE.
NOW THIS IS JUST AN INTRODUCTION TO A GRAPHIC WHICH I WILL SHOW
ABOUT ARCTIC SEA ICE.
SO NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT DATA WHERE WE CAN STUDY ARCTIC SEA
ICE, DAY/NIGHT AND WE'RE LOOKING AT THE SUMMER MINIMUM.
AND THESE ARE DATA WHICH ARE DERIVE FROM PASSIVE MICROWAVE
SENSORS.
SO THERE'S A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND AND THERE'S VARIABILITY
WHEN WE BOUNCE ALONG AND THEN WE COME TO 2000, WE MOVE ON TO
2005, TWO THEN SIX AND IN 2007 WE REALLY SHOOT DOWN.
THIS IS EXTREMELY INTERESTING AND NEEDS TO BE LOOKED AT AS
ACTUALLY VERY, VERY, SERIOUS BECAUSE THE ALBEAT O OR
REFLECTIVITY OF SEA WATER IS VERY, VERY, LOW.
AUTOA DARK TARGET WHICH IT ABSORBS THE SHORT WAVE FLUX FROM
THE SON, WRASSE ARCTIC SEA ICE REFLECTS A LOT SO WE'RE SETTING A
MOTION TO HAVE LESS ICE AS TIME GOES ON.
SO THAT'S JUST A BRIEF INTRODUCTION WHICH I'LL COME BACK TO IN A
MINUTE ABOUT CLIMATE BUT LET'S TALK ABOUT THE USE OF SATELLITES
AND REMOTE SENSING TO LOOK AT INFECTIOUS DISEASES FOR THE TWO
DISEASES WHICH I MENTIONED.
SO FROM SATELLITE DATA WE CAN LOOK AND GET AN IDEA OF WHERE
THERE ARE OUTBREAKS IN THE DISEASES WHAT IS THE SETTING
GEOGRAPHICALLY AND SPACIALLY WHERE THEY ENCOWER.
ARE WE IN SAFE RAJA, OR GALLERY OR DO THESE OCCUR IN URBAN
AREAS BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WE CAN USE SATELLITE DATA TO
DERIVE THREE VERY IMPORTANT ABIOTIC VARIABLES OF THE SURFACE,
AND THAT IS RAINFALL, TEMPERATURE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE
HUMIDITY.
BECAUSE MANY INVERTEBRATES AND MANY MIKE ROBES ARE SENSITIVE
TO THESE THREE ABIOTIC VARIABLES.
SO IF YOU'VE SEEN THE MOVIE OUTBREAK THIS IS KEVIN SPACY, WITH
EBOLA, WE CRACKED THE DVD CODE AND WE WERE ABLE TO PULL OUT
JPEG FROM IT SO HERE'S KEVIN SPACE SCHEHE SUFFERS, EBOLA BUT HE
SURVIVED BECAUSE HE STILL WITH US.
AND ONE OF THE CURIOUS THINGS ABOUT EBOLA IS IT HAS A VERY HIGH
CASE FATALITY.
, 60‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
VERY CURIOUS WHICH ATTRACTED THE ATTENTION OF PEOPLE, ISEC
BOLA WHEN IT FIRST APPEARED AND WAS DOCUMENTED IN THE 1970S AT
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME AND THEN THERE
WEREN'T ANY REPORTS OF EBOLA RIVER EMERAGIC FEVER OUTBREAKS
UNTIL 1994 SO THERE WAS THIS LONG DORMANT PERIOD.
IN THE INTERVENING PERIOD, THE VIRUS COWBOYS AND COW GIRLS
WERE IN THE OUTBREAK AREAS OF EQUATORIAL AFRICA LOOKING FOR
ANTIBODY TO THE VIRUS OR TO THE VIRUS ITSELF.
AND THEN SINCE 1994 THERE HAVE BEEN MANY, MANY, OUTBREAKS OF
EBOLA.
THIS IS AFRICA AND I HAVEN'T UPDATED THIS SINCE LAST YEAR.
SO WHAT MY GROUP AT THE GOD ARD SPACE SPLIT CENTER IN NEARBY
GREEN BELL DID IS WE TOOK THE DOCUMENTED CASES AND WE WENT
INTEREST OUR SATELLITE DATA AND LOOK AT THOSE SPECIFIC
LOCATIONS AND THOSE SPECIFIC TIMES TO SEE, WAS THERE ANYTHING
UNUSUAL IN TERMS OF OUR ABIOTIC VARIABLES AT THOSE LOCATIONS
THEN WE RAN THAT FORWARD AND BACKWARDS IN TIME TO SEE IF
WHAT WE FOUND WAS UNIQUE.
NOW FIRST, BECAUSE I'M TRAINED AS A BIOLOGIST ORIGINALLY EVEN
THOUGH I'M NOW MORE OF A PHYSICAL SCIENTIST, LET'S LOOK AT THE
PHYLOGENY OF THE EBOLA VIRUS.
THERE ARE FOUR STRAINS, ONE FROM AFRICA, ONE FROM THE IVORY
COAST AND ONE FROM SOUTHERN SUDAN AND ONE FROM ALL PLACES
REST IN VIRGINIA, WELL THIS WAS DOCUMMED IN A PRIMATE LAB THERE
AND AFTER A GREAT DEAL OF RESEARCH AND TRACE BACK, THOSE
ANIMALS WERE TRACED BACK TO THE PHILIPPINES EVEN THOUGH EBOLA
HAS NEVER BEEN REPORT FROM THE PHILIPPINES.
SO THIS ADDS TO THE COMPLEXITY ABOUT IT AND GIVEN RISE A LOT OF
CONSPIRACY THEORIESES AMONG THE SAME PEOPLE WHO DOUBT
CLIMATE CHANGE.
JUST JOKING.
AND THEN THE FIRST COULD YOU SAY IN OF THE EBOLA VIRUS IS THE
MAR BERG VIRUS.
SO WHAT WE FOUND, WE, BEING MY GROUP.
WHEN WE LOOK WE PHON THAT ALL EBOLA HEMORRHAGIC FEVER UT
BREAKS HAVE OCCURRED IN AREAS OF TROPICAL FOREST INEC
QUATORIAL AFRICA.
EITHER CONTINUOUS LIKE YOU SEE HERE, HERE'S A PHOTOGRAPH WHICH
I'VE TAKEN FROM A SMALL PLANE FLYING OVER SOME OF THESE
TROPICAL FORESTS THIS, IS WHAT THEY LOOK LIKE ARK A CONTINUOUS
CARPET OF TREES, OR THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN AREAS OF GALLERY
TROPICAL FOREST AND HERE IS A TONGUE OR FINGER OF TROPICAL
FOREST IN A MATRIX OF SAVANNAH.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT ALL THEEC BOLA OUTBREAKS HAVE OCCURRED, IT'S
BEEN IN UPON ONE OR TWO OF THOSE ECOLOGICAL SETTINGS.
NOW, IT HAS BEEN UNKNOWN WHERE THE RESERVOIR OF THE EBOLA
VIRUS IS AND WHAT THE VECTORS ARE IN ITS TRANSMISSION ALTHOUGH
THERE HAVE BEEN ONE OR TWO REPORTS RECENTLY WHERE IN CERTAIN
SPECIES OF BATS THE ANTIABOUTS TO THE VIRUS HAVE BEEN FOUND.
BUT THIS IS A PUBLICATION FROM A FEW YEARS AGO WHERE YOU LOOK
ON THE LEFT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IN THE ANIMAL KINGDOM.
SO WHEN YOU SEE SOMETHING LIKE THIS AS A RESEARCHER, IF YOU CAN
NARROW IT DOWN TO PLANTS OR ANIMALS THAT WOULD BE A MAJOR
ACCOMPLISHMENT.
SO WE THOUGHT WOW, LET'S LOOK AT THIS.
BUT IT MEAN IT'S VERY INTERESTING.
AND THEN THERE'S ALL SORTS OF POSSIBILITYS FOR INVERTEBRATES
AND INVERTEBRATES AND BATS AND RATS, THE FAVORITES OF
MAIMOLOGYSTS WHICH COULD BE INVOLVED IN THE TRANSMISSION TO
PRIMATES.
AND IT'S KNOWN TO EFFECT IN A VERY VIRULENT WAY PRIMATES,
HUMANS, GORILLAS, AND OTHER PRIMATES WHICH MEANS IT IS A NEW
DISEASE BECAUSE HERETOFORE NO ANTIABOUTS HAVE BEEN FOUND IN
PRIMATES PRIOR TO SOME RECENT EXPOSURE.
OKAY, SO WHAT WE HAVE IS AND MY GROUP AT THE GOD ARD SPACE
FLIGHT CENTER, WE'VE TAKEN A WIDE VARIETY OF INNER SILENTS AND
WE CALCULATED IT WHICH MEANS WE SPENT TIME WORKING ON
CALIBRATION ISSUES AND WE HAVE THIS GLOBAL DATA SET THAT RUNS
FROM MID1981 THROUGH PROBABLY YESTERDAY OR MAYBE TWO DAYS
AGO.
BECAUSE WE TRY TO KEEP CURRENT PROCESS DATA FOR A WIDE
VARIETY OF CLIMATE QUESTIONS AND SO WE USED THOSE DATA THEN
TO LOOK AT WHERE WE HAD THESE OUTBREAKS OF THE OH
BOLA‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WAS UNIQUE ABOUT IT AND SHOULD IS A SPAGHETTI CHART.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT EACH OF THESE CURVES, EACH OF THESE LINES
REPRESENTS ONE OF THESE AREAS WHERE THERE WAS AN OUTBREAK OF
EBOLA.
THE ARROWS INDICATE THE TIME AND THE YEAR WHEN THESE
OUTBREAKS OCCUR.
IT'S KIND OF CONFUSING.
THE IMPORTANT THING IS WHEN WE LOOK AT WHERE THE OUTBREAK
OCCUR, WHAT WE FOUND FOR MOST OF THE CASES WE HAD A TWO
STANDARD DEVIATION OR DRY PERIOD, AS THE RAINY SEASON
WASSENNING, IT COULD BE THEN OF THE LONG RAINS OR THE SHORT
RAIN, IF YOU HAVE THE EQUATOR, HAVE YOU A DRY AND A RAINY
SEASON.
IF YOU'RE ON IT, HAVE YOU A BIMODAL RAINY SEASON AS THE RAINS OF
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE SOUTH PASS OVER THE EQUATOR
AND THEN SOUTHWARD FOLLOWING THE SUN AND THESE OCCUR AND IT
WAS PUNCTUATED BY A TWO STAND ARD DEVIATION DRY PERIOD WHICH
WAS THEN INTERRUPT BY A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION RETURN TO
VERY WET CONDITIONS.
AND SO WE PHON THAT THESE LOCATIONS, IS THISUCNIQUE OR DID THIS
HAPPEN EVERYWHERE ALL THE TIME.
SO WE LOOKED WHERE WE HAD THESE CONDITIONS IN OUR ENTIRE DATA
SET AND THIS IS WHERE WE MAPPED THEM OUT TO BE.
THE IMPORTANT THING HERE FOR THESE RED POINTS ISSUES THESE ARE
POINTS WHICH WHERE WE FOUND THESE CONDITIONS TO BE TRUE, FOR
THESEICALLY AREAS WE DIDN'T.
SO WE DIDN'T KNOW, DID SOMETHING ELSE HAPPEN HERE AND WE'RE
WRONG OR DID PEOPLE TRAVEL TO THESE LOCATIONS FROM ONE OF
THESE SITES?
BUT THIS IS ONE WAY OF USING SATELLITE DATA TO FOCUS VERY
SPECIFIC QUESTIONS TO BE ASKED AT CERTAIN TIMES AND CERTAIN
PLACES.
THEN WE TOOK THE SAME DATA AND WE RAN IT BACKWARDS IN TIME.
EACH EACH OF THESE HISTOGRAMS REPRESENTS THE MAGNITUDE IN
TERMS OF AREA WHERE THESE WERE EFFECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL
FOREST STRATAWHERE WE HAD THESE SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF AT
LEAST A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION, DRY PERIOD, PUNCTUATED BY A
TWO STANDARD DEVIATION AND IMMEDIATE RETURN TO WET
CONDITION.
WE HAVE AN ORBCONTRARY FLESH HOLD I'VE DRAWN HERE.
THE ARROW INDICATE TIME WHEN IS WE HAD ACTUAL DOCUMENTEDEC
BOLAITY BREAKS IN THOSE YEARS‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
YEARS.
IN 1991 IT'S VERY HIGH.
SO WAS THERE AN OUTBREAK AND WE DIDN'T KNOW IT?
OR MAYBE IT WASN'T REPORTED?
DID IT AFFECT PRIMATES?
OR IT WASN'T DOCUMENTED AND BROUGHT TO THE ATTENTION OF
MEDICAL PERSONNEL?
BUT WE DO CATCH MOST OF THEM.
SO, THIS IS ONE OF THE CONCLUSIONS WHICH WE HAVE.
WE THINK WE HAVE A CLIMB TO LOGICAL MODEL WITH A HIGH DEGREE
OF GEOGRAPHICAL SPECIFICITY WHERE THE HOT ZONE OF EBOLA IS, BUT
WE CAN'T REALLY DO TOO MUCH BEYOND THAT EXCEPT WAIT FOR MORE
OUTBREAKS WHICH OF COURSE YOU DON'T WANT TO HAPPEN AND SEE
HOW THING LOOK.
SO THAT'S WHERE THINGS STAND WITH OUR WORK ON EBOLA AND WE'RE
DOING THIS.
ANYTIME THERE'S AN OUTBREAK WE USE PROMED, WE GET THE REPORTS
IN, WE COLLABORATE WITH THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, AND
WITH OTHER GROUPS, AND WE'RE EXTREMELY INTERESTED IN THIS AS
TIME GOES ON SO WE CAN BETTER KNOW WHAT'S HAPPENING.
NOW I WILL TURN MY ATTENTION TO A DISEASE WHICH MANY OF HAVE
YOU NOT HEARD ABOUT.
WHICH IS CHIKUNGUNYA.
IT IS A FEVER LIKE DINGHY FEVER AND I'LL SHOW RESULTS OF OUR
SATELLITE DATA ARKINAL SIS OR OR SATELLITE DATA ANALYSIS FROM
EAST AFRICA AND THE INDIAN OCEAN.
THIS WILL BE A VERY DIFFERENT PRESENTATION IN THE SENSE THAT IN
STARTING IN 2004 AND CONTINUING THROUGH 2005 AND 2006 THERE
WERE SEVERAL OUTBREAK OF THIS DISEASE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN AREA
AND EAST AFRICA BUT THEY WERE ASSOCIATED WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS.
SO NORMALLY A CHIKUNGUNYA IS ASSOCIATED IN AREAS OF
EQUATORIAL AREAS OF AFRICA AND ASSOCIATED WITH EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, BUT SOMETHING HAPPENED IN 2004‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
VERY LARGE SERIES AND SCALE OF OUTBREAKS WHICH PROPAGATED
OVER TIME AS PEOPLE MOVED FROM ONE LOCATION TO ANOTHER AND
WAS STRONGLY ASSOCIATED WITH DROUGHT.
AND THE ARK SUSMGZ IS THAT DURING PERIODS OF DROUGHT, THEY
STORE WATER, THEY STORE WATER IN CONTAINERS WHICH WERE NOT
COVERED THIS THEN MADE AN IDEAL STORAGE AND BREEDING‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WAS A WATER STORAGE SITUATION WHICH WAS AN IDEAL BREEDING
HABITAT FOR THE SPECIESS OF MOSQUITOES WHICH TRANSMIT THIS
DISEASE.
NOW, ONE OF THE PROBLEMS WHEN YOU STUDY SOME UNUSUAL
DISEASES LIKE THIS IS REPRESENTED IN THIS FIGURE.
SO HERE YOU SEE IN YELLOW ARE THE CASES WHERE HOSPITALS HAVE
REPORTED THE INCIDENCE OF MALARIA, THIS IS FROM LAMU,OT INDIAN
OCEAN COAST OF KENYA IN 2004.
AND THE HISTOGRAM ARE THE MEMBER OF CASES‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF CHIKUNGUNYA.
AND SO WHAT YOU NOTICE IS THAT AT FIRST WHAT HAPPEN HERE IS THE
OUTBREAK OF CHIKUNGUNYA WAS CONFUSED WITH JUST A FAIRLY
PREVALENT LEVEL OF MALARIA IN THE AREA AND THEN YOU COME TO
THE APRIL/MAY AREA WHEN THE DROUGHT CAME ON AS I'LL SHOW IN A
SEC, AND THESE CASES SPIKED UP.
SO, OUR DATA AND THE MEDICAL DATA INDICATE THAT THIS OUTBREAK
OCCURRED FIRST OF ALL IN LAMU, IN KENYA AND THEN PEOPLE MOVED
TO OTHER PLACES LIKE THE MOBASA IN KENYA, TO SEVERAL OF THE
INDIAN OCEAN ISLANDS LIKE THE SEA SHELL, THE KOMOSH ROS,
REUNION ISLAND AND SUBSEQUENTLY THERE WERE OUTBREAKS OF THIS
DISEASE THERE.
SO NOW WE USE A DIFFERENT TYPE OF SATELLITE DATA WHERE WE LOOK
GOING ON THE OUTWAVE LONG GOING RADIATION.
THIS IS THE HEAT OF THE EARTH.
AND WHEN YOU HAVE DRY CONDITIONS HAVE YOU A LET OF ENERGY
GOING OUT, DURING DRY PERIODS AND EXTENSIVE DOUBTS, YOU DON'T
HAVE CLOUDS SO HAVE YOU A LOT OF LONG WAVE RADIATION WHICH
GOES OUT INTO FACE.
ASK WHAT YOU NOTICE IN MAY, IN MAY, THIS IS AN EXTREME DRY
CONDITION HERE AND THAT WAS WHEN WE SAW THE SPIKE IN THE
CASEIS OF‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AUTORIGHT THERE.
THIS IS THE CENTER OF THE DOUBT AREA.
VERY UNUSUAL, VERY UNEXPECTED.
HERE WE HAVE A DOUBT IN A VERY SEVERE DROUGHT WHICH WAS
IMPPLICATED IN THE SPREAD OF THIS DISEASE.
THIS IS A FIGURE WHICH SHOWED THE SAME THING.
IF WE LOOK IN THE RED CURVE OR THE RED LINE IN THESE TWO FIGURES
FROM 2004, TWO THEN FIVE, THE FIRST ONE IS FROM LAAMERICA U, AND
THE SECOND ONE IS ALSO FROM KENYA FROM THE TOWN OF MARK BASA.
WHAT YOU SEE INDEED RED LINE IS WHAT THE LONG‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RAINFALL IN THESE LOCATIONS AND THE BLUE DATA ARE THE ACTUAL
RAINFALL FROM METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS AND IT'S THIS DIFFERENCE
RIGHT IN HERE AND RIGHT IN HERE WHERE WE HAD THESE OUTBREAKS
OF‫ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬O HERE OF CHIKUNGUNYA IN THESE TWO LOCATIONS.
FIRST IN LAMUAND THEN SUBSEQUENTLY IN LAMBASA.
WE CAN INFER THE SAME THING FROM THE SATELLITE DATA WHICH WE
HAVE, THAT HERE WE HAVE THE DEPARTURE IN THE LONG‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RAINFALL, CALLED THE RAINFALL ANOMALY.
SITUATED HERE IN BLUE.
AND OUR SATELLITE DATA TRACK THIS CAREFULLY AND SO HERE,
THEY'RE BOTH NEG95 AND HERE WAS THE FIRST‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WAS THE FIRST INITIAL OUTBREAK.
SO WHAT WE HAVE HERE ARE TWO EMPLOY EXAMPLES OF HOW WE USE
SILENT DATA AND WE'RE LOOKING AT CLIMATIC EVENTS WHICH WE'VE
SEEN SEVERAL EXAMPLES EARLIER WHICH CAN BE AND WILL BE
STRONGLY EFFECTED BY CLIMATE AS WE MOVE TO WARMER CONDITION.
NOW, I'LL WHAT I WOULD WILL LIKE TO DO NOW IS SHOW OTHER WAYS
OF LOOKING AT THE CLIMATE SYSTEM TO SEE, FIRST OF ALL, IS CLIMATE
CHANGE OCCURRING AND WHAT IS IT POSSIBLY DUE TO?
AND THE PREVIOUS SPEAKER WHO IS A HARACT TO FOLLOW SHOWED
THINGS ABOUT COSH TWO, THIS IS A PLOT OF THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2
CONCENTRATION VERSES TIME WHICH STARTS IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE 18TH CENTURY AND THEN IT RUNS ON UP TO WHERE WE ACTUALLY
STARTED THE DAY BY DAY, WEEK BY WEEK, HAWAII MEASUREMENTS OF
UPDATE AND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE, THERE ARE THREE DISTINCT
SLOPE TO THESE DATA.
SO THESE COME FROM ICE CORES, THESE ARE ALSO ICE CORES, AND SO,
WE STARTED AT A PRE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓‬
OF 280 PART PER MILLION.
EXCUSE ME AND THEN WE BURN WOOD AND COAL AND WE HAVE A
SLIGHT INCREASE UNTIL JUST AFTER THE AMERICAN CIVIL WAR WHEN
THE AGE OF PETROLEUM CAME IN AND THEN THE SLOPE CHANGED
DRAMATICALLY AS WE WERE BURNING MORE AND THEN AFTER THE END
OF WORLD WAR II IN 1950 WE HAD THIS RAPID INCREASE BECAUSE OF THE
TREMENDOUS ECONOMIC EXPANSION.
AND WE'RE PRESENTLY NOW AT 385 OR 390 PART PER MILLION.
NOW, YOU CAN ARGUE ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING WITH SOME PEOPLE
AND I'VE BEEN IN NUMEROUS ARGUMENTS WITH THEM.
SO LET'S LOOK AT SEA LEVEL RISE AND SEE WHAT WE CAN INFER FROM
THAT AND WHAT MAY BE CAUSING THEM.
HERE ARE DATA WHICH RUN THROUGH 2007.
EXCUSE ME.
AND THEY STARTED IN VERY LATE 1992 AND THESE ARE DATA WHICH
ARE BASED UPON HAVING RADARS ON SATELLITES WHICH THEN SHOOT A
BEAM DOWN TO THE EARTH'S SURFACE OR THE OCEAN'S SURFACE AND
THEN THEY MEASURE THE RETURN.
AND JUST LIKE THE POLICE CAN CATCH YOU FOR SPEING, AUTOTHE VERY
SAME PRINCIPLE.
SO I DON'T THINK MANY PEOPLE WOULD DISAGREE THAT YOU CAN USE
RADARS THAT TELL SPEE OR DISTANCE.
IT'S COMMONLY USED IN A VERY WIDE VARIETY OF PURPOSES.
AND SO CAN YOU DO THIS, YOU CAN AVERAGE THE DATA OVER THE
WORLD'S OCEANS AND YOU CAN LOOK AT THE SEA LEVEL.
SO THESE ARE SPACIALLY CONTINUOUS DATABASED UPON RADAR
ALTIMETERS AND THEY 10 TO VERYY LIKE YOU SEE HERE BUT THIS IS
THE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SO THIS IS A SLIGHT VARIATION SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THE DEPARTURE
FROM THE MEAN AND WE'RE LOOKING AT SEA LEVEL RISES, GOES ALONG
AND ALL THE POINTS ARE HERE AND THEN WE COME TO THIS TIME
PERIOD.
SO WHEN YOU ANALYZE THESE DATA, YOU SEE SOMETHING WHICH IS
VERY, VERY, INTERESTING WHICH IS THE EARLY EARLY TIME PERIOD
AND THE FIRST SEVEN YEAR, YOU HAD A SEA LEVEL RISE BASED UPON
TWO DIFFERENT METHODS, JUST UNDER 3‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THEN FOR THE LAST SEVEN YEAR IT'S ABOUT 4‫﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SO THIS IS INTERESTING, AND YOU ASK THE QUESTION, ARE THESE
MEASUREMENTS WRONG AND WHAT IS CAUSING THIS.
NOW YOU KNOW THAT 60% APPROXIMATELILY AND THE SEA LEVEL RISE
IS DUE TO THE THERMAL ECPANGS OF THE WATER AS IT WARMS AND 40%
IS DUE TO GLACKIERS OR ICE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EXPLAIN THAT.
SO THIS IS ONE OF THE TESTS.
SO ONE OF MY CO WORKS AT THE SPACE FLIGHT CENTER s s LET'S SEE IF
THIS IF THIS MILLIMETERS PER YEAR, CAN WE MEASURE IT BY USING NEW
SATELLITE DATA WHICH ARE GRAVITY DATA.
THIS IS NOT STAR TREK BUT THERE'S AN INTERESTING NASA SATELLITE
CALLED G. R. A. C. E. WHICH STANDS FOR THE GRAVITY, RECOVER AND
ACTIVITY AND CLIMATE AND THERE'S ACCURATE I'M NOT SURE WHAT
THE RADAR IS, BUT ACCURATE RANGING BETWEEN THEM WHERE YOU
MEASURE THE DISTANCE BY A HUMAN HAIR.
ACCURATE DISTANCE.
AND AS THESE TRAVEL AROUND IN THE SAME ORBIT, PAIRED ORBIT.
IF YOU GO OVER A DISCONTINUITY ON THE MASS, MASS VARIATIONOT
SURFACE.
A PERSON WILL SLOW DOWN IF THERE'S MORE MASS OR SPEED UP IF
THERE'S LESS MASS AND FROM THIS VARIATION OF THE DISTANCE, CAN
YOU BACK OUT WHAT THE MASS IS BETWEEN THE SILENT.
SO LET'S LOOK AND SO HOW THOSE DATA LOOK.
NOW BEFORE I DO THAT, WITH GLOBAL WARMING WE EXPECT TO HAVE
AN ACTIVE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, PAUL AND OTHERS HAVE SHOWN
SOME FIGURES ON THAT THIS MORNING AS YOU EXPECTED TO RAIN
MORE AND SNOW MORE BECAUSE YOU'RE EVACERATING NOR WATER‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EVAPORATING MORE BECAUSE OF THE WATER.
NOW I'LL SHOW SATELLITES THEN FROM GREEN LAND, ALASKA AND ANT
ARCTICCA WHERE WE SEE CLEARLY THERE'S MORE ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW BUT MORE OF IT MELTING BECAUSE AUTOWARMER.
NOW THESE ARE THE GRACE RESULTS FROM GREEN LAND, SO WE'RE
LOOKING AT MASS CONS WHICH IS MASS CONCENTRATION AND WHAT
YOU SEE, YOU HAVE THESE MEASUREMENTS EVERY MONTH AND YOU
SEE THE ACCUMULATION IN WINTER AND LOSS DURING THE WARMER
PART OF THE SUMMER AND THEY OSCILLATE LIKE THIS.
SO YOU LOOK AT THE BALANCE AND WHAT YOU SEE FOR GREEN LAND IS
YOU HAVE A LOSS OF 150 GIGA TONS OF WATER PER YEAR BECAUSE
YOU'RE MEASURING ICE.
IT DOESN'T MATTER BECAUSE THE UNITS ARE THE SAME WHETHER IT'S
WATER OR ICE.
NOW YOU CAN BREAK THAT OUT, BUT FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
GREEN LAND WAY UP HERE AUTOONLY ABOUT 30 GIGA TONS BUT FOR
THE REGIONS OF THE SOUTH, EVERYTHING ELSE IS MUCH, MUCH, MORE.
THIS IS COINCIDENCE IS ENTIRELY CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
DATA FROM GREEN LAND.
LET'S LOOK IN TERMS OF ELEVATION.
WELL, THERE'S ANOTHER NASA SATELLITE WHICH IS CALLED I. S. A. P.
AND THIS HAS A LASER WHICH BEAMS DOWN AT THE EITHER'S SURFACE
AND AUTOACCURATE FOR MEASURING HEIGHT.
AND BECAUSE THE FREQUENCY OF THE LASER LIGHT IS MUCH, MUCH,
SMALLER, AUTOBETTER FOR LOOKING AT SMALL VARIATIONS OF THE
SURFACE TO GET THEIR ELEVATION.
SO YOU USE A COMBINATION OF THE GRAVITY DATA IS AND THE
ELEVATIONAL DATA OF GREEN LAND AND WHAT YOU SEE IS THAT
ABOVE 2000‫ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬E.
BECAUSE ABOVE 2000‫﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
MUCH, KOHLER.
AND SOMETIMES THE CLIMATE CHANGE SKEPTICS WILL SAY, IN GREEN
LAND SNOW IS ACCUMULATING ABOVE 2000‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IS THIS TREMENDOUS LOSS AND THE DIFFERENCE IS 150 GIGA TONS OF
WATER PER YEAR.
NOW LET'S LOOK AT ALASKA.
SO WHAT THESE TWO CO‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SO WHAT THEY'VE DONE IS LOOK AT LARGE AREAS OF ICE TO GET
DETAILED INFORMATION OVERTIME, MONTH BY MONTH AND SEE WHAT
THE MASS BALANCE CHANGE ARE AS THIS RELATES TO THE SEA LEVEL
RISE COMPONENT THAT IS ATTRIBUTED TO GLACIAL MELT.
SO NOW FOR ALL OF ALASKA, THEY CAN ACTUALLY LOOK AT AREAS
THAT ARE AS SMALL AS 50,000 SQUARE KILL METER AND THEY SAY FOR
ALASKA THERE IS A NET LOSS OF ABOUT 80 GIGA TONS OF WATER PER
YEAR.
BUT YOU SEE THIS VARIATION, THAT IT DOES INCREASE IN THE WINTER
AND THEN IT DECREASED IN THE SUMMER.
AND THEN IT INCREASES IN THE WINTER AND SO ON AND SO FORTH, BUT
THE SLOPE IS NEGATIVE IS VERY, VERY, CONSTANT.
CAN YOU BREAK THIS OUT TO THE WESTERN PART OF LA LAS, THE
EASTERN PART OF ALASKA, SO ON AND SO FORTH BUT YOU SEE THE
SAME THING.
THERE'S THIS NET LOSS OF GLACIAL MASS FROM ALASKA ON THE ORDER
OF 80 GIGA TONS A YEAR.
NOW LET'S LOOK AT SORT OF THE BIG DAY OR THE BIG MAMA OF THEM
ALL WHICH IS ANT ARCTICCA.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT SEA LEVEL, ANTARCTICCA BECAUSE IT ALL
MELTS THAT PORTION WHICH IS ABOVE SEA LEVEL IS ABOUT 80‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF SEA LEVEL RISE.
TO GO TO GREEN LAND AUTOA MAGNITUDE LESS, AUTOSIX OR 7‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF POTENTIAL SEA LEVEL RISE AND THEN GO TO THE MOUNTAIN
GRATIERSS AND IT'S LESSOT ORDER OF 60 OR 70‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SO WE'RE VERY CONCERNED ABOUTER SPECIALLY GREEN LAND AND
ANTARCTICA AS IT RISE.
SO AS YOU LOOK, WHAT YOU SEE IS IN WEST ANT ARCTICCA, THESE ARE
IT RIGHT HERE, HAVE YOU A LOSS OF 120 GIGA TONS A YEAR EVEN
THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE THERE ARE VERY WARM.
SO WHAT IS HAPPENING, THE OCEANS AROUND IT ARE WARMING.
HAVE ALL THESE GLACIERS COMING OUT AND YOU SEE IT MELTING AND
ACCEL BERATING THE FLOW FROM THERE TO THE OCEANS.
IF YOU LOOK TO THE EAST, YOU SEE THERE IS A METAACCUMMULATION
THERE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 GIGA TON PER YEAR.
SO, BUT THE TOTAL IS A NET LOSS OF 100 GIGA TONS A YEAR.
SO THESE COWORKER OF MINE ARE NOW DOING THE SAME FOR THE
NORTHERN PART OF CANA, PAT GONIA AND THE HIMALAYAS.
AND SO FAR THE RESULT INDICATE THAT THE SEA LEVEL RISE OF ABOUT
1.6‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF THE 4‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
ENTIRELY CONSIST SPENT THEY'RE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE THIS TO THESE
VARIOUS SOURCES.
OKAY, SO LET'S HAVE A CARTOON AND THEN LET'S TALK ABOUT MORE
SERIOUS THINGS.
SO HERE IS PERHAPS SOMEONE DOWN ON THE MALL OR CLOSE TO IT, AND
THEY'RE SIT NOTHING WATER AND THEIR FEET AND THEIR SOCKS ARE
WET AND THEY'RE SAYING, PERHAP IT'S TIME, LIKE OUR PRESIDENT
YESTERDAY, THAT WE GAVE SOME SERIOUS THOUGHT TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE.
BUT THE FACT IS WENY TO DID IT NOW AND NOT WEIGHT 17 YEAR.
SO THERE'S‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
STRUCK BY OUR VEHICULAR INSANITY FOR BURNING FOSSIL FUELS.
THIS IS WHY I RIDE MY BIKE TO WORK AS MUCH s AS I CAN.
BUT WHAT WE WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT IS BURNING OF COAL, AND
BURNING OF OIL FROM TAR SANDS AND BURNING OF OIL FROM TAR
SHALE BECAUSE THE CARBON RELEASE FROM THOSE THREE FUELS, YOU
GET THREE TIMES THE AMOUNT OF CARBON PER BDU AS YOU GET OF
BURNING NATURAL GASES.
AND WENY TO START NOW AND NOT WAIT 17 OR 20 YEAR: SO THIS IS
FROM JIM HANSEN'S WORK AT THE SPACE CENTER.
AND THE BIG KILLER GOING TO BE COAL.
SO HERE WE HAVE THE BIOSPHERIC COMPONENT. THIS IS DUE TO LAND
USE CHANGES.
HERE WE HAVE OIL AND NATURAL GAS.
SO WHAT CAN WE DO?
IF WE GO TO A SENSIBLE USE OF COAL WHICH MEANS WE OHM BURN
COAL IF WE HAVE CARBON SEQUESTRATION, CARBON CAPTURE, WE CAN
STABILIZE THE ATMOSHPHERIC CONCENTRATION SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
404 HICK PARTS PER‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
BUT THE IMPORTANT THING IS NOT NO FURTHER THIS ON.
SO I THINK I'LL STOP THERE AND ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS.
SO, THE IMPORTANT THING‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THAT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WORK ON THE IS IT OF GLOBAL PHOTOSYNTHESIS IS CHANGING, WE'RE
MOVING TO WARMER CONDITIONS I'VE SHOWN TWO INFECTIOUS
DISEASES ASSOCIATED WITH EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS ONE WITH
DROUGHT AND THE OTHER WITH A VERY CURIOUS DRY PERIOD IN AN
EQUAITORIAL TROPICAL FOREST WHICH WAS PURCHGHTUATED BY A
WET CONDITION WHICH SEEMED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTBREAKS
OF A VIRUS FROM AN UNKNOWN RESERVOIR AND SO I THINK THE TALK
ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES IS VERY PERTINENT
AND THESE ARE JUST TWO EXAMPLES.
(APPLAUSE).
>> THANK YOU JIM.
AND LET'S REMEMBER THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE LOOKING IN AND
THIS IS ALL BEING RECORDED.
>> OH MY GOD.
>> ON TO TAPE, SO, ANY QUESTIONS FOR JIM?
>> JUST A QUICK ONE.
THERE WAS A RECENT REPORT THAT THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE AT
LEAST SHALLOW OCEAN TEMPERATURES HAD STOPPED WARMING, I
THINK IT WAS‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IS THAT DUE TO THIS INPUT OF WATER COMING IN FROM GLACIAL MELT?
>> I'M NOT SURE.
THERE WAS ONE REPORT.
WELL WHAT HAPPENED IN 2003 OR FOUR A NEW SERIES OF FLOATING
BUOYS, AUTONOMOUS BUOYS WERE DEPLOYED AND CO INSIDING WITH
THEIR DEPLOYMENT, THREES WERE BUOYS WHICH TOOK A PROFILE OF
TEMPERATURE AND SALINITY WITH DEPTH AND THEY COME UP AND
STORE THE DATA AND TRANSMIT IT TO A SILENT AND THEN IT'S
PROCESSED.
IN THOSE IT WAS DISCOVERIED THAT AS SOON AS THEY WERE DEPLOYED
THERE WAS THE INICATION OF A SLIGHT OCEAN COOLING BUT BECAUSE
THE VOLUME AND THE MASS OF THE OCEAN IS SO GREAT, PEOPLE SAID
WELL, THIS IS THE CASE THSH IS VERY STRANGE, THE OCEAN OCEANS
ARE COOLING.
IT TURNED OUT TO BE A CALIBRATION IN THE INSTRUMENTS BECAUSE IT
CO INSIDED WITH THE DEPLOYMENT OF THESE.
NOW JUST A FEW MONTHS, THE ORIGINAL AUTHORS OF THIS, THEY
DISCOVERED THEIR ERROR AND THEY HAVE RETRACT IT AND
CORRECTED IT.
SO NOW THERE'S NO DISCUSSION OF OCEAN COOLING.
>> I HAD A QUESTION GOING BACK TO THE DATA YOU WERE SHOWING
ABOUT THAT INTERESTING ARK NOMELY OF THE TEMPERATURE FLUX
WITH THE DROUGHT AND THE HEIGHT AND THE WETNESS PERIODS YOU
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTBREAKS.
HAVE YOU OR MAYBE SOMEBODY ELSE GONE BACK NOW AND STARTED
TO LOOK AT POTENTIALS OF VEES RESERVOIRS TO FIGURE OUT IF THERE'S
RISE IN THE SPECY OR BACTERIA ASSOCIATED WITH THOSE PERIOD OF
OUTBREAK?
>> WELL, LAST TIME I CHECK THERE HAD BEEN SEVERAL 10S OF
THOUSANDS OF INDIVIDUAL DETERMINATIONS DONE ON
INVERTEBRATES, INVERTEBRATES FROM EQUATORIAL AFRICA FROM THE
OH BOLA I HAVE RUSE OR‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EBOLA VIRUS.
ANTIBODIESS HAVE BEEN FOUND IN FRUIT BATS.
NOW WE DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS THE RESERVOIR OR A VECTOR.
SO THE WORK IS STILL GOING ON.
BUT THERE HAVE BEEN 10S OF THOUSANDS OF INDIVIDUAL ASSAYS OF
SPECIMENS COLLECTED, REPTILE, AMPHIBIANS, INSECTS, MAMMALS,
BIRDS, AND THE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
COME UP NEGATIVE.
>> ( INAUDIBLE ).
>> THERE'S A PERSON WHO WAS A GRADUATE STUDENT STUDIED A LOT
OF PLANT PHYSIOLOGY, I THINK IT WOULD BE WILD IF IT WAS THE
PLANTS THAT WERE RESPONSIBLE.
(LAUGHTER).
>> THANK YOU.
(APPLAUSE).
>> LAST SWEEKER IS SOMEONE WHO WORK CLOSELY WITH JIM TUCKER
THEY WORK TOGETHER, THEY WORK ON CHIKUNGUNYA AND RIFT
VALLEY FEVER THRK IS CLEARLY A DISEASE THAT HAS MAJOR
ECONOMIC IMPACT AND AUTOA GREAT PLEASURE TO WELCOME KEN
LINTHICUM.
>> THANKS.
(APPLAUSE).
>> THANKS, PAUL, VERY MUCH.
I WOULD LIKE TO FIRST THANK EDWARD O FOR INVITING ME TO
PARTICIPATE IN THIS GREAT GROUP OF SPEAKER ON A VERY
INTERESTING TOPIC THAT I THINK IS OF IMPORTANCE TO EVERYBODY IN
THE WORLD AND IS SOMETHING THAT'S IMPORTANT TO US IN THE
USDECA.
‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
COLLABORATORS CONCERNING THE WORK THAT I'M GOING TO BE
SHOWING.
A NUMBER OF PEOPLE AT GOD ARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER, INCLUDING
JIM TUCKER AND OTHERS, ALSO IN THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
COLLEAGUES, BOTH HERE IN WASHINGTON AS WELL AS AT
LABORATORIESES DEPLOYED OVERSEAS.
YOU KNOW ABOUT 45 YEARS AGO ALMOST EXACTLY 45 YEARS AGO, NOT
TOO FAR FROM HERE, WHEN PRESIDENT KENNEDY WAS SPEAKING AT A
COMMENCEMENT EXERCISE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY, TALKING ABOUT
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, HE SAID, IN THE FINAL ARKINAL SIS,
AUTOALMOST‫ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬T COMMON LINK IS THAT WE ALL INHABIT THIS
PLANET AND WE ALL BREATHE THE SAME AIR AND WE EAT THE SAME
FOOD, AND WE LIVE IN THIS RELATIVELY SMALL AND FRAGILE PLANET
AND ADDITIONALLY AND I THINK YOU COULD TELL FROM THE TALKS
THAT ARE GOING ON TODAY THAT WE ALL‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
DISEASES.
URBANIZATION CHANGES THE LANDSCAPE IN SURROUNDING
ECOSYSTEMS.
IT AFFECTS INTERACTIONS AND VECTORS IN THE CASE OF VECTORS I
MEAN ARTHROPOD VICTORIORS, NOT BACTERIA VECTORS FOR
TRANSFIRMATION EXPERIMENTSS BETWEEN ANIMALS AND PEOPLE, AND
BETWEEN THE VECTOR‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF THING REGARDING CONTROL OF INSECT THAT TRANSMIT DISEASES OR
CONTROL DISEASES, CAN YOU SEE HERE, FROM THIS IMAGE OF THE
EARTH AT NIGHT, THE TREMENDOUS LAND THAT'S COVERED BY HUMAN
POPULATION, YOU KNOW IN THIS AREA HERE, NEAR HONG KONG THIS IS
MEGAOP LIS THAT INCLUDES SEVERAL LARGE CITIESES THAT DIDN'T USE
TO OCCUR MAYBE 20 OR 30 YEARS AGO THERE OFN'T ANYTHING THERE.
TREMENDOUS CHANGES IN THE EARTH, AND IT AFFECTS THE CLIMATE
AND WE'VE BEEN TALKING A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THE EARTH'S OCEANS.
AND THEY SERVE AS REALLY THE DRIVES, THE ENGINE OF THE EARTH'S
CLIMATE AND THEY'RE VERY CLOSELY LINKED, THE OCEANS AND THE
CLIMATE.
SO WHAT I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT HERE IS A BIT ABOUT THAT LINK
AND HOW DISEASES FIT INTO IT.
WE'RE VERY LUCKY BECAUSE WE CAN OBSERVE NOW, AND ACTUALLY
FOR THE PAST 28 YEARS OR SO, GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CLIMATE AND VEGETATION, WITH REALLY CONSISTENT AND RELIABLE
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, THE LAND OBSERVATIONS SHOWN FOR
EXAMPLE IN THIS IMAGE OVER ALL THE LAND, NORMALLY DIFFERENT
VEGETATION ARK NOMELYS.
JIM DIDN'T MENTION THIS EXACTLY, BUT HE'S REALLY THE ONE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ASSIMMULATING THAT DATA SINCE 1980 OR 1981 AND
I'VE HAD THE GOOD FORTUNE OF COLLABORATING WITH HIM FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME AND THEN OF COURSE WE HAVE THE OCCASION
TEMPERATURES IN THIS CASE, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
SO WHAT I'LL TALK ABOUT HERE BRIEF LYE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
BACKGROUND ON RIFT VALLEY FEVER VIRUS AND ABOUT THE
ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS.
TALK ABOUT SATELLITE MAPPING AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY RELATED
TO RIFT VALLEY FEVER AND THEN GO ON TO TALK ABOUT AN
OPERATIONAL CLIMATE APPLICATION THAT WE ACTUALLY USE AND
PUBLISH ON THE WEB WHERE WE MONITOR RISK MAPPING FOR RIFT
VALLEY FEVER AND GIVE A COUPLE QUICK EXAMPLES OF RECENT
OUTBREAKS AND HOW A CLIMATE HAS IMPACT THE HORN OF AFRICA IN
2,000,006 AND 2007 AND IN SUDAN IN 2007 AND THEN JUST A COUPLE
CONCLUSION.
RIFT VALLEY FEVER IS A ZOO NOSH TIRK C DISEASE.
IT AFFECTS LIVESTOCK.
IT WAS DISCOVERIED IN KENYA IN 1981 IN A FATAL EPISODE IN SHEEP.
IT CAUSE FEVER IN LIVESTOCK AND FAIRLY MILD DISEASE IN
INDIGENOUS WILD ANIMALS IN AFRICA.
IT'S A FLU LIKE DISEASE BUT CAN BE SERIOUS INCLUING ENCEPHALITIS
AND HEMORRHAGE.
THERE'S REALLY NO TREATMENT FOR THE DISEASE AND NO LICENSED
VACCINE AND MORTALITY CAN CHANGE FROM 1 PERCENT IN
POPULATIONS IN ENDEMIC AREAS TO MAYBE AS HIGH AS 10 TO 20% AND
IMMUNOLOGICALLY NAIVE POPULATIONS AND MUCH, MUCH, HIGHER
THAN LIVESTOCK.
SO THE GENOUS SLEEPER VIRUS.
A BIT UNUSUAL, OTHER VIRUSES ARE TRANSMITTED BY SAND FLIES BUT
THIS ONE IS TRANSMITTED BY MOSQUITO.
RIFT VALLEY FEVER COME TO GREATER INTENTION BEFORE 1997, BEFORE
THAT WAS‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THEN IT IT CHANGE.
IT APPEARED AROUND THE AREA OF THE NILE AND MOVED UP INTO THE
DELTA AREA OF EGYPT.
FIRST TIME LEAVING SUB‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬AFRICA IN 77.
OTHER NOTABLE OCCURS ENSS IN 1987 IT APPEAR IN A SARK HELEAREA,
IT OCCURRED IN HABE STATS WHICH CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED AS SAND
DUNESS IN EARLIER STEVE MORSE MENTION IT WAS CAUSED BY THE
CLOSING OF THE DAM AND THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED.
IN 1997‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EAST AFRICA RELATE TO THE ELNIN O I'LL TALK ABOUT IN A MOMENT
AND ANOTHER LANDMARK OCCURRENCE HAPPENED IN 2000.
IT MOVE OUT OF THE COAST OF THE AFRICA INTO THE ARABIAN
PENINSULA IN THIS REGION BOTH IN YEMEN AND IN SOUTHERN SAUDI
ARABIA ALONG THE RED SEA COAST OCCURRING IN A PLAIN HERE AND
DEPICTED IN THIS LAND SET IMAGE.
WHEN I'M GOING TO TALK ABOUT NOW, IS ACTUALLY A SUMMARY, OF
DR. KALD WELL SAID OF 30 YEAR OF HER WORK, THIS IS 30 YEARS OF
WORK THAT I'VE BEEN DOING.
AND IN THE EARLY 1980S WE RECOGNIZE THEREOF A STRONG LINK
BETWEEN RIFT VALLEY FEVER OUTBREAKS AND RAINFALL AND THIS
GRAPH DEPICTS ITS DOWN HERE.
THIS IS SURPLUS RAINFALL INDICATED BY POSITIVE AREAS HERE, HERE,
AND HERE.
AND THOSE CORRESPONDED PRECISELY WITH LARGE OUTBREAKS IN 1950,
61, 68, 1977 AND THEN AGAIN IN 82, 83 IT HAPPENED.
WE MADE THAT LINK.
SO, HERE'S THE RIFT VALLEY FEVER LIFE CYCLE AS I PICTURE IT.
IT LOOK A LITTLE COMPLICATED AND I'LL SPECT YOU TO KNOW THIS BY
THE END OF THE PRESENTATION.
BASICALLY IT'S AN UNDEMMIC CYCLE INVOLVES 80S MOSQUITOES,
TRANSFECT AND THEY OVERPOSIT IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG RIVERS
AND STREAMS AND WHEN A SUFFICIENT RAIN FLOOD THESE AREA,
INFECTED VIRUS, INFECTED MOSQUITOESS ARE RELEASED AND
CONTAMINATE DOMESTIC LIVESTOCK.
TYPICALLY THESE THING HAPPEN FAIRLY FREQUENTLY BUT AT SMALL
SCALES, LOCAL RAINFALL THE EVENT.
THE EPIDEMIC CYCLE IS TRIGGER THE SAME WAY.
THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THERE'S A LARGE RAINFALL EVENT
INFECTED IN MOSQUITOESS EMERGE AND DOMESTIC LIVE STOCK AND
THEN THOSE AREA REMAINING ON FLOODED LONG ENOUGH FOR
SUBSEQUENT HELIX MOSQUITO TO TRANSMIT THE VIRUS NOT ONLY
BETWEEN ANIMAL BUT TO PEOPLE CAUSING EPIDEMICS.
AND WE'VE SEEN THAT A NUMBER OF TIMES IN RECENT YEAR AND I'LL
TALK AGAIN ABOUT THAT IN JUST A MOMENT.
THE REASON THIS HAPPENS AND THE REASON IT'S RELATED TO RAINFALL
IS BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING OF THOSE HABITATS.
AGAIN IF IT'S INITIAL FLOODING THE FIRST PRODUCTION IS OF MOSQUITO
INFECT WITH VIRUS, AND IF THOSE DON'T REMAINING ON LONG ENOUGH,
YOU GET A PRODUCTION OF THE VIRUS AND VIREMIA AND DOMESTIC
ANIMALS AND THEN IT ALL SUBSIDES.
INFECTED MOSQUITOES LAY INFECTED EGGS INTO THESE HABITATS AND
THEN BASICALLY NOBODY KNOW ANYTHING HAPPEN.
HOWEVER IF THEY REMAINING ON FLOODED FOR LONG PERS OF TIME
THESE SPECIESS EMERGE AND CREATE EPIDEMICS AND EPIZOOTICS.
THIS IS MONITORING AND DATA I ALIEUD TOO, 27‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
TREMENDOUS RECORD IN CALIBRATE INFORMATION THAT WE HAVE
AVAILABLE TO US AND THAT WE HAVE BEEN USING SINCE 1981.
IN 1998, WE NOTICE ANOTHER PHENOMENON, THIS SHOWS, SOUTHERN
ASALATION INDEX DATA FROM 1950 TO 2006, I GO BACK TO 1950 BECAUSE
WELL, BASICALLY THAT'S WHEN I OF BORN.
I THOUGHT THE WORLD STARTED THEN.
SO EVERYTHING STARTS THERE IN MY MIND.
I KNOW WE'VE SEEN THINGS THAT GO BACK BEFORE THAT.
BUT FROM 1950 ON, EVERY SINGLE RIFT VALLEY FEVER OUTBREAK
DENOTED BY THESE RED BAR AT THE BOTTOM CORRESPONDED TO AN EL
NIN O EVENT.
COINCIDENTALLY WE NOTED THAT THESE EVENT HERE FOR EXAMPLE IN
19 PEAT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EXAMPLE HERE IN 1973.
SO WE KNEW SOMETHING ELSE WAS GOING ON AND WHAT THAT WAS,
WAS IT‫ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬HE PACIFIC
OCEAN THAT HAPPENS DURING ELNINIO BUT YOU HAVE TO HAVE
WARMING OF THE THE INDIAN OCEAN CONCURRENTLY AS DEPICT HERE
BY THESE SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAPS.
SO IF HAVE YOU CONCURRENT WARMING HERE AND HERE, YOU'LL GET
AN EPIDEMIC OCCURRING IN EAST AFRICA AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS,
WHEN THE OCEAN IS WARM, YOU GET TREMENDOUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AND TREMMENNOUS RAINFALL.
AND FOR EXAMPLE, HERE IN THE 97‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WARMING WHICH STARTS OVER THE OCEAN AND MOVES OVER THE
LAND.
SO BASICALLY, IT'S A CONVERGENCE, THE CONVERGENCE OF THE PACIFIC
INIAN OCEAN TEMPERATURES AND AS YOU CAN SEE FOR THIS EXAMPLE
IN 82, 83, BOTH INDIAN OCEAN AND SPECIFIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANTLY
ELEVATED FROM ONE TO 3‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THAT ALL OF THE CASE.
SO BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WE DEVELOPED AN OPERATIONAL
APPLICATION FOR MONITORING AND SUB‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
DIVIDE AFRICA INTO THREE REGIONS AND AREAS AND HENS THAT
IS‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WHEN IT MOVE TO THE ARABIAN PENINSULA WE HAD TO INCLUDE AN
AREA THERE IN OUR OPERATIONAL AREA.
NOW I LOST THAT MAP, BUT MAYBE IT WILL COME BACK.
SO RIFT VALLEY FEVER EPISOS OCCUR UNDER FAVORABLE ECOCLIMATIC
CONDITIONS AND THEY CAN BE MAPPED THROUGH RAINFALL AND
INTEGRATION AND THE ALEGORITHMS WE USE IS A POTENTIAL
EPIZOOOTOTTIC AREA AND IT WAS AN AREA THAT FIT THE SAVANNAH
AREAS OF AFRICA AND THAT'S THE EPIZOOOTIC AREAS WHERE WE THINK
EPIZOOOTICS CAN OCCUR.
IT CAN OCCUR ANYWHERE INCLUDING GALLERY FORCE IN CENTRAL
AFRICAN FOREST BUT THE EPIZOOOTIC ONLY OCCUR IN LARGE ANIMAL
POPULATIONS.
SO HERE'S THE AREA HERE.
AND YOU CAN SEE, IT'S A FAIRLY LIMIT AREA, BUT THESE ARE THE AREA
THAT ARE BASED ON CLIMB TO LOGICAL AND LITERATURE INFORMATION
WE'VE DETERMINE, WE USELESS USE VEGETATION IN THE CALCULATION
WHERE WE LOOK AT BASICALLY GREENING UP OVER A THREE MONTH
PERIOD THAT WE KNOW IS INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL.
AND THEN PERSISTENT ANOMALY MUST HAVE A THREE MONTH MEAN OF
GREATER THAN .1 AND THEN ALL PIXEL THAT MEET THAT
CRITERIA‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THIS CAN BE FOUND READILY AT THIS WEB SITE.
THIS IS OPERATED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE GLOBAL EMERGING
SYSTEM, WE PLOT NOT ONLY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BUT ALL LONG
WAVE OUTGOING INFORMATION FOR THE ENTIRE WORLD.
NOW LONG OUTGOING RADIATION FROM THE PREVIOUS SPEAKER IS THE
OPPOSITE IN THE SENSE OF VEGETATION.
THIS BROWN AND RECOLOR INDICATE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WHERE
THE BLUE INDICATES HEAVY CLOUD COVER OR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
SO AT ANY GIVEN TIME HERE IN 97‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF CHOW AND RAINFALL IN THE PACIFIC, A DRY NORTHERN AND SOUTH
AMERICA, A VERY RAINY EAST AFRICA INIAN OCEAN AND A VERY DRY
SOUTHEAST ASIA INDONIESIA COMPONENT.
IT'S ALWAYS IN BALANCE.
AT LEAST WE HOPE IT STAYS IN TAY KINE OF BALANCE.
WITH GLOBAL CHANGE THINGS COULD CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BUT AS
THE WE'RE IN THIS GOOD BALANCE.
WE ALSO PUBLISHED A MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA.
IN THIS CASE, ACTUAL RAINFALL DATA OR WE PUBLISH ANOMALY DATA
FOR AFRICA VEGETATION DATA FOR ALL OF SUB‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
INCLUING THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THEN THE RISK MAP.
FOR EXAMPLE, HERE'S A RISK MAP FOR THE EPD OF 1997 SHOWING AS RED
HIGH LEVEL OF RISK, THE AREA OF EAST AFRICA WHERE THE OUTBREAK
DID OCCUR.
SO ABOUT A YEAR OR SO AGO, IN SEPTEMBER OF 2006, WE NOTICED
SOMETHING HAPPENING AND WE‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
CONCURRENT ELEVATION IN INDIAN OCEAN TEMPERATURE AND PACIFIC
OCEAN TEMPERATURES, SO, A CONCURRENT ELEVATION.
WILL ANYBODY VENTURE TO GUESS WHAT MIGHT HAVE HAPPENED
AFTER THAT?
YOU THINK SOMETHING HAPPENED?
OKAY.
THAT'S WHAT WE THOUGHT.
SO, WHAT WE DID WAS A COUPLE THINGS.
WELL FIRST THIS LOOK LIKE DIAGRAMMATICALLY, A WARMING OF THE
PACIFIC, OF THE RAINFALL AND THE INDIAN OCEAN, WE THOUGHT GHEE,
SOMETHING DOESN'T LOOK GOOD.
IT LOOK LIKE 97‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE RAINFALL STARTED FALL NOTHING SOMALIA AND HERE'S THE
RAINFALL ANOMALY, AUTOTHREE OR 400‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH.
SO BIG, BIG, RAINS IN SOMALIA.
AND YOU KNOW IT'S GOT A LOT OF PROBLEMS BUT WE THOUGHT WE
BETTER PUT OUT WARNING TO ALL OF THIS AREA.
HERE'S THE VEGETATION INDEX DATA THAT WE START SEEING AND
THEN, THE INITIAL RISK MAP LOOKED LIKE THIS IN SEPTEMBER.
ELEVATED RISK IN SOMALIA AND THEN IN NOVEMBER, EXTREMELY
INCREASE RISK IN SOMALIA EXTENNING INTO EASTERN KENYA AND
OTHER PARTS OF DENNIA, ALSO IN ETHE I DON'T MEAN‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
BECAUSE WE THOUGHT THAT WAS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.
WE START PUTTING OUT WARNINGS AND WE WROTE ANA VISERY FOR
THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE PROGRAM THAT WENT OUT TO ALL OF
OUR DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE LABORATORIESS, PARTICULARLY THE
LABORATORY WE HAVE IN KENYA AND ASK THEM TO INCREASE
SURVEILLANCE.
WE SUBMITTED A PAPER TO THE INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH
GEOGRAPHICS DESCRIBING WHAT WE THOUGHT MIGHT BE THE
IMPLICATIONS OF THIS ELNINO AND WE ISSUE A SECOND ALERT IN EARLY
NOVEMBER BECAUSE IT KEPT GETTING WORSE AND WORSE AND THE FAO
FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S CORRECT TO SAY, BUT
PROBABLY IS, FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER THEY ACTUALLY BELIEVE WHAT
WE WERE SAYING.
AND THEY ACTUALLY‫﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THEY TOOK IT VERY SERIOUSLY AND AT A PUBLISHED AT THIS WEB SITE
AND SENT OUT TO THEIR REGIONAL OFFICE, A WARNING THROUGH THE
IMPRESS SYSTEM, THE EMERGENCY PREVENTION SYSTEM AND I'M GLAD
THAT THEY DID.
ALSO, THIS GOT PICKED UP IN VARIOUS MEDIA, WE REPORTED IT AT
VARIOUS MEETING.
HERE'S THE EMPRESS WATCH THAT CAME OUT IN NOVEMBER 2006 AND
BASICALLY IT SHOWED THAT THE DATA THAT WE HAD ON THE WEB SITE
AND EVENTUALLY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE TEAM WORKING WITH
THE KENYA MEDICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AND INTERNATIONAL
AUTHORITIESES SORT START COLLECTING MOSQUITOES IN THIS PART OF
KENYA IN EARLY DECEMBER AND EVENTUALLY WERE ABLE TO FIND IN
DECEMBER INFECTED MOSQUITOES, AND SHORTLY FOLLOW
SUBSEQUENTLY BY HUMAN CASES AND THEN THE CLEAR RECOGNITION
THAT AN OUTBREAK HAD START.
AT THIS TIME, WE HAD ESSENTIALLY NO DATA COMING FROM SOMALIA
AND YOU MAY REMEMBER IN THIS 2006‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
HAD INVADED SOMALIA SO SOMALIA WAS IN TURMOIL AGAIN AND U.S.
FORCES WERE OPERATING WITHIN THIS AREA.
AND NOTHING WAS COMING OUT OF SOMALIA.
RISK WAS PREDICT FOREC THY I DON'T MEANIA, AND NOTHING WAS
REPORTED FROM ETHIOPIA.
WE DIDN'T GET INFORMATION FROM THEM.
BUT EVENTUALLY SOMALIA WAS CONFIRM TO HAVE OUTBREAKS OF
CASES.
SO THIS WAS INCREASE SURVEILL AN THAT HAPPENED.
SO IN DECEMBER IT STILL REMAINING ONED WARM.
STILL HAD RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH IT START SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
NOW, SOUTH OF SOMALIA AND KENYA, HERE'S RAINFALL YOU SEE, IT'S
RAINING IN TANZANIA NOW, WHEN WE SAW THIS ACTIVITY, AGAIN,
WARNINGS WENT OUT FOR TANZANIA AND HERE'S VEGETATION
DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA, ETHIOPIA AND SOMALIA, AND WE SAW THIS
INCREASED VEGETATION AND ON A RISK MAP INDICATED ELEVATED RISK
IN TANZANIA, AND WE CONTINUED WITH THE WARNING AND
EVENTUALLY DISEASE WERE REPORT IN ANIMAL AND IN PEOPLE AND IN
TANZANIA, SO WHO, CDC, FAO, GOVERNMENT OF KENYA MOBILIZED
THEIR TEAM RESOURCES AND THE GOVERNMENT OF KENYA BAN
SLAUGHTER OF LIVESTOCK, REALLY PROACTIVE ACTIVITIESS.
VACCINE WAS APPLIED MAYBE NOT IN TIME, BUT IT WAS THE FIRST TIME
IT WAS ACTUALLY DONE IN ESSENTIALLY A PROACTIVE MANNER.
ATTEMPTS WERE MADE FOR NO SWEET O CONTROL, BUT THEY CAME A
LITTLE LATE.
BUT IN ANY CASE, AUTOOUR FEELING THAT THE RESPONSE ACTIVITIESES
WERE ONE TO ONE AND HALF MONTHS EARLIER THAN HAD BEEN THE
CASE IN 1997‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IT STILL WAS EXTREME ECONOMIC BURDENOT COUNTRY.
OBVIOUSLY, FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY, BUT PARTICULARLY THOSE
PEOPLE THAT WERE AFFECTED IT CAUSED HUMAN ILLNESS, HUMAN
DEATH, LOSS OF ANIMALS, LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD, EXTREMELY DISEERS
DISEASE BUT IMPORTANT IMPLICATION, BUT BECAUSE OF CLIMATE AND
THE UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE AND DISEASE TRANSMISSION, I THINK
WE HAD A BIG IMPACT.
JUST SOME MORE OF THE ACTIVITIESES THAT WENT ON DURING THIS
TIME.
LET ME JUST GIVE YOU, THAT'S ON THE BIG SCALE, LET ME GIVE YOU AN
EXAMPLE ON A SMALL SCALE HOW THIS CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE
USE.
HERE'S A FARM THAT'S LOCATE JUST BELIEVE IT OR NOT
20‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
FEBRUARY AND YOU KNOW BASICALLY ALL THEIR SHEEP POPULATION
WAS WIPE OUT.
THEY HAD THEM CLASSIFY AS SHOWN IN THIS SLIDE EITHER AS SEVERE
DISEASE, MILD DISEASE OR RECOVERING AND NOBODY GOT TO THE
RECOVERING, EVERYBODY WENT TO THE SEVERE DISEASE AND DIED.
BUT INTERESTINGLY, THIS IS SOME OF THESE HABITATS THAT IN FACT WE
HAD BEEN STUDYING FOR MANY, MANY YEAR SIN THE LATE 1970.
THEY WOULD KEEP THEIR DAIRY CATTLE NEAR THE FARM HOUSE, SO
THESE WERE NOT ALLOWED TO GRAZE ANYWHERE YEAR THE MOSQUITO
HABITATS HERE BUT THE SHEEP WERE ALLOW TO GRAZE ANYWHERE ON
THE FARM.
SO WE GOT THERE AND WE s, WELL, YOU KNOW DON'T LET THE SHEEP GO
OUT THERE WHERE THE MOSQUITO ARE INFECT WITH THE VIRUS, AND WE
CONVINCE THEM BECAUSE THE CATTLE NEVER WENT THERE.
EACH THOUGH THE CATH WERE ONLY A COUPLE KILOMETERS FROM
WHERE THE SHEEP WERE HELD, NONE OF THE CATTLE BECAME SICK AND
APPARENTLY NONE OF THEM WERE INFECT.
SO WE'RE ABLE TO JUST ON A DRAMATIC‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
CHANGE THE COURSE OF WHAT HAPPEN ON THIS FARM JUST SIMPLY BY
THE RECOGNITION OF CLIMATE RECOGNITION OF DISEASE BEING SPREAD
BY MOSQUITO.
SO HERE'S A SUMMARY OF ALL THE AREAS IN THAT OUTBREAK THAT
WERE AFFECT.
WE WERE ABLE TO MAP HOW WELL OUR RISK MAPPING WORK AND WE
WERE IN THE PROCESS NOW OF MOOIFYING THAT RISK MAP, PERFECTING
THAT RISK MAP.
IT OBVIOUSLY WORK BUT WE'RE NOW TRYING TO DEFINE IT AT A HIGHER
SPACIAL RESOLUTION.
JUST FOR YOUR INFORMATION, THESE THREE OCCURRENCE ARE THE
NORMAL RAINFALL FOR PLACE IN SOMALIA AND ONE PLACE IN KENYA
AND ONE IN TANZANIA, AND THESE ARE THE RAINFALL THAT HAPPEN IN
ZERO SICK AND 07 THEAVEN START THE OUTBREAK IN KENYA AND
SOMALIA AND THEN THIS IS THAT VERTIAL LINE. AND THEN WE KEPT
HEARING WILL THE DISEASE MOVE FROM SOMALIA DOWN?
IT DOESN'T MOVE, BUT IT STARTED IN SOMALIA AND BECAUSE OF
RAINFALL IT END UP TO TANZANIA, IT IT OCCURS AT DIFFERENT TIME
BECAUSE OF ECOLOGICAL WEATHER AND CLIMATE CONDITIONS.
I'LL SKIP THIS SLIDE.
LET ME JUST GO ON NOW, SO IN JULY OF LAST YEAR, RIGHT AFTER THIS
HAPPENED IN IN KENYA, WE SAW SOMETHING DIFFERENT.
ALL OF A SOEN, HERE'S‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WE WERE SEEING RAINFALL OCCURRING IN THE U.S., AND ALL ACROSS
THIS REGION INTERESTINGLY, SOMETHING WAS HAPPENING DIFFERENT
AND WE ALSO SAW IT IN THE INDIAN OCEAN.
THE ATC IS THE ZONE OF INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS IN MY ORIGINAL SLIDE IT WASN'T DOWN HERE AND
SHOULDN'T BE DOWN THERE, IT WAS UP HERE.
BUT WHAT HAPPEN WAS, AND WE DON'T REALLY TOTALLY UNDERSTAND,
BUT THE INDIAN OCEAN HAD COOLED OFF BUT THEN IT WARM UP AGAIN
AND BECAUSE OF THE IRPT TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ON REMAINING
ONING SO FAR NORTH OF US, AUTOTREMENDOUS HEAVY RAINFALL
GOING ON THERE.
SO WE START FOLLOWING THAT AGAIN AND HERE YOU SEE THE PACIFIC
HAD COOL DOWN AND WE'RE STARTING THE LA NINNIA FACE AND THAT
WARMED UP AGAIN AND IT CREATED AGAIN POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
RAINFALL.
AND HERE YOU SEE IT MORE DRAMATICALLY IN AUGUST.
YOU SEE THIS ALL ACROSS THE WORLD, THIS TREMENDOUS RAINFALL
PATTERN, SOMETHING WAS TRAINCHLG BUT IT WAS A GLOBAL CLIMATE
EVENT.
AND SO WE STARTED‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SLIDE I'M GOING TO SHOW FRO NOW ON, ARE OF THIS PART OF SUDAN.
SO HERE'S THE BORDER WITH SO MOLLIA RIGHT HERE, THE RED SEA,
THERE, AND THIS AN AREA JUST SOUTH, BETWEEN THE NILE RIVERS IN AN
AREA VERY HEAVY CULTURE VEGETATION.
WE SAW THIS TREMENDOUS RAINFALL OCCURRING THERE WHICH OF
COURSE LED TO US PUBLISHING ON THE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RISK, THERE JUST SOUTH.
WILL QUARTERBACK‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
I KNOW YOU COULD GUESS.
YEAH, YOU'RE RIGHT.
YEAH, THERE OF ANOTHER OUTBREAK IN SUDAN.
THE WARNINGS HAD GONE ON OUT IN JULY AND WE KEPT TELLING
INTERNATIONAL AUTHORITIESS, THAT THEY BETTER LOOK.
SUDAN DIDN'T ACKNOWLEDGE THAT.
WE LATER HEARD THERE WAS ACTUALLY ACTIVITY OCCURRING, BUT IT
WAS KEPT FAIRLY SECRET.
IF YOU LOOK AT IT, WHAT HAPPENS, THESE ARE THE DOTS WHERE THE
CASES OCCUR.
THIS IS AN AREA WHERE WE THOUGHT THEY WERE AT RISK.
DID IT OCCUR IN THESE OTHER AREA, WE DON'T KNOW BUT IT DID OCCUR
IN THESE AREA.
AND IT HERE'S THAT SAME KINE OF A CHART.
HERE'S‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RAINFALL AND HERE'S THE ANOMALY RAINFALL THIS DOT LINE HERE.
THIS ALL HAPPEN IN JULY AUGUST, BUT THE FIRST CASE DIDN'T HAPPEN
UNTIL OCTOBER.
SO JUST LIKE IN THE MORN OF AFRICA, SEVERAL MONTH WARNING.
NOT MUCH HAPPEN THOUGH IN TERM OF RESPONSE HERE.
LET ME JUST CONCLUDE HERE.
I THINK WE ALL CAN UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT WE'RE ALL AT RISK
FOR EXPANSION OR GLOBALIZATION OF VARIOUS DISEASE,
PARTICULARLY VECTOR DISEASES LIKE RIFT VALLEY FEVER AND WE
HAVE TO BE ON SURVEILL AN FOR THESE CHANGES.
BUT UNDERSTANDING CLIMB AT CHANGE CAN HELP US WITH CRITICAL
AND SURVEILLANCE AND CONTROL OPERATIONS.
OBVIOUSLY STILL RESEARCH ON DISEASEECICOLOGY AND VECTOR
BIOLOGY, ON VECTOR CONTROL, GENETICS, VACCINE ARE GOING TO BE
ESSENTIAL TO RESPOND QUICKLY.
WE UUSING CLIMATE, SAY WHEN A DISEASE IS GOING TO HAPPEN BUT WE
DON'T HAVE THE TOOL OR VACCINES OR PROPER MOSQUITO CONTROL
METHOD.
SO WE'RE WORKING HARD TO TRY TO IMPROVE THOSE.
BUT AGAIN, FORCASTING DISEASE IS REALLY CRITICAL FOR THE TIMELY
AND EFFICIENT PLANNING OF THE OPERATIONAL CONTROL PROGRAM.
WE HAD SOME SUCCESS AS A LONG WAY TO GO AND THE GLOBAL AND
RESULT IN THE REGIONAL CLIMBAT ANOMALY CAN BE USED TO
FORECAST DISEASE RISK AND THEY HAVE THAT POWER AND THE TOOLS
TO MAKE RATIONAL JUDGMENTS TO CONTAIN OR PREVENT AND
MITIGATE TO DEVELOP BETTER MITIGATION STRATEGY.
SO IN SUMMARY, I THINK THE UNDERSTANDING OF VECTOR BORN
DISEASE CRITICAL AND AUTOHELP TO DESIGN BETTER CONTROL
METHODS OR EXCLUSION METHODS.
BETTER METHOD WE CAN USE IN THIS COUNTRY TO PREVENT DISEASE
FROM BEING INTRODUCED HERE, IF WE KNOW DISEASE GOING TO HAPPEN
IN EAST AFRICA AND WE KNOW SHIPS ARE COMING TO CONTAINERS TO
PORTS IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WE CAN PREPARE FOR THAT
AND IN THE USDA WE ARE DOING THAT.
WE ARE CONDUCTING RESEARCH TO FIND OUT WHERE SHIP CONTAINERS
GO IN THE U.S., DO THEY CONTAIN MOSQUITOES, WELL WE KNOW THEY
DO AND WHY AREN'T THEY BEING CONTROLLED BEFORE THEY'RE
OPENED.
THOSE ARE QUESTION THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO ANSWER BUT WE'RE
OBVIOUSLY WORKING HARD TO DO THAT.
KNOWING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE CAN REALLY ALSO MINIMIZE THE
COST FOR SURVEILLANCE OVER LARGE AREAS AND I THINK THAT'S BEEN
VERY WELL DOCUMENT.
AND FORCAST RISK WILL ANTICIPATE ANTICIPATE OF GLOBALLATION OF
VECTOR BORN DISEASES AND HERE WE ALL AGREE WITH THAT.
THAT CONCLUDES MY SLIDE AND JUST ANOTHER LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS
AND COLLABORATOR.
THANK YOU.
KD
(APPLAUSE).
>> THANK YOU SO MUCH, KEN.
THANK YOU FOR ANY COMMENTS, QUESTION FOR KEN BEFORE WE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WELL WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THE PANEL IN A MOMENT AND THEN WE'LL
HAVE EVERYONE COME UP.
OH, GREAT.
CLEARLY WE'VE TALKED A LOT ABOUT EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS OF
CONDIGS TO VECTOR BORN DISEASES, CHOLERA, I'M GOING PLAY ON
YOUR PERSEVERANCE AND STAMINA HERE, JUST THOSE THREE LAST
SLIDES TO INDICATE WHERE I THINK WE NEED TO GO AS A PUBLIC
HEALTH COMMUNITY IN LOOKING AT SOLUTIONS, HOW DO WE WAY IN
ON THAT.
>> ( INAUDIBLE ).
>> OH WELL THEN IT'S SOMEWHERE BACK THERE.
>> SO ONE OF THE SCHEMES THAT'S BEEN PROPOSE TO LOOK AT ENERGY
SOLUTIONS ARE THESE STABILIZATION WEDGES, AND HOW DO WE BEN
THE CURVE AND LEVEL OFF CO2 INITIATIVES?
THERE ARE ABOUT 15 PROPOSALS, THIS IS WORK OF
SACK‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
FIRST GROUP IS EFFICIENCIENCY MEASURES AND THEN THERE'S
RENEWABLES, SOLAR THERMAL, GEOTHERMAL, JUST BELOW THE GRAND
FOR HEAT PUMP OR DEEP.
THEN THERE'S A WHOLE RANGE OF NATURAL ISSUES OF PRESERVING
FORESTS AND NURTURING FORESTS AND AS WELL, CONSERVATIONS AND
OTHER AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, WASTE MANAGEMENT, NOW A NEW
WEDGE.
HERE'S THE POSSIBLE FUEL BASE AND THEN NUCLEOFISSION.
SO THAT'S THE RANGE OF THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN PROPOSED.
SO TAKE A FIRST PASS AT WHAT WE MIGHT DO THAT HAS LOTS OF
BENEFITS.
GO FOR PUBLIC HEALTH, GO FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND MOST OF THESE
ARE BEING LOOKED AT AS TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC QUESTION
AND THIS IS TO INTERVIEWS THE HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL WAVE.
SO JUST A FIRST PASS A WHOLE LOT OF WONDERFUL THINGS.
WE NEED SEVEN OR EIGHT OF THESE RESPONSES IS WHAT THE
CALCULATION IS.
SO A WHOLE LOT OF THINGS THAT PRODUCE JOBS, GOOD FOR PUBLIC
HEALTH AND HELP STABILIZE THE CLIMATE.
THEN THERE'S THE FOSSIL FUEL ISSUES AND BIOFUELS WHICH NEED
RESEARCH AND NUCLEAR FISSION IS GIVEN THREE ASSAY, STORAGE,
SAFETY, AND SECURITY.
SO LOTS TO HAVE LOOK AT AND NOT GOING TO GO INTO THE DETAIL OF
ANY OF THIS NOW EXCEPT TO POINT IDENTITY VISIONS FOR WHAT WE
MIGHT DO NOW, SCALE UP AND WHAT WENY TO STUDY AND WHAT IS
PART OF A RESEARCH AGENNA.
HERE'S THE HEAT IRK LAN‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AND WHAT WE DON'T KNOW IS WHAT 03 AND DOING IN TERMS OF
PHYSICS OR COSH TWO IN TERM OF‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
CITY.
BUT I PUT THIS UP HERE IN TERM OF SOLUTIONS BECAUSE GREEN
BELLINGS, ROOF TOP GARDENS, TREE LINED STREET, WALKING WAY,
BIKING PATH, SMART GROWTH PUBLIC TRANSPORT ARE ALL ABOUT
DECREASING THESE LOCAL ISSUE THAT SORT OF MAY BE AFFECTING OUR
HEALTH IN TERM OF RAG WEED, IN TERM OF VULNERABLE, TO HEAT
WAVE AND CLEARLY ARE ALL METHODS FOR DECREASING CARBON,
INCREASING HOPEFULLY STABILITY OF CLIMATE.
SO LOTS OF MEASURE THAT I CAN DO.
AND IN UNDERDEVELOPED AREAS THIS IS SOMETHING CALL ENERGY
POVERTY, A WHOLE SERIES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER LE BY LONDON
SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TOPICAL MEDICINE FOLKS ABOUT THE ROLE OF
ALL THESE.
LET ME JUST GO BACK TO THAT FOR A SEC EMPLOY BECAUSE ALL THESE
ISSUE ARE RELATE TO OUR MDG'S MILLENNIUM DEVELOP GOAL.
CLEAN WATER, CLINICS, HOMES WITH LIGHTING FOR IS ITING, SMALL
BUSINESSES, COOKING WE KNOW IS A MAJOR ISSUE, INDOOR AIR
POLLUTION.
SO LOTS OF ENERGY ISSUES AND HERE THE ARGUMENT IS THAT WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT MITIGATION IN THIS CORNER.
ADOPTATION OVER HERE, CLEAN ENERGY SYSTEMS, DISTRIBUTED
GENERATION, RESILIENT SMART GRID AND DEVELOP NATION, THESE ARE
PART OF ADAPTIVE MEASURES TO PROTECT US AGAINST HEAT WAVE BUT
ALL PROMOTE THE KIND OF DEVELOPMENT THAT IS UNDERLYING
VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO FINALLY, HERE'S A DIAGRAM STEALING FROM OUR AHE, THE HOST OF
THE ENVIRONMENT AND IN THIS CASE HOW DO WE DO THESE
WONDERFUL THINGS?
WE SCALE UP AND NEED TO CONCLUDE, WE NEED CARROTS, WENY
STICKS, WENY A PROGRAM THAT LOOK AT HOW TO ALIGN THE REWAR
AND REGULATION AND THE RULES AND THERE'S ONLY A FEW THINGS
THAT GOVERNMENT MUST DO AND THAT'S PROVIDE THE
INFRASTRUCTURE AND PROCUREMENT AND GUIDE THE RESEARCH, HELP
SET PRICE OF CARBON AND SO ON.
WE NEED A COMPREHENSIVE ENERGY PLAN, WE NEED TO DEAL WITH
CORN, COAL AND NUCLEAR LOBBYS AND SPECIAL INTERESTS AND IF WE
MOVE THEM OUT OF THE WAY AND LEAD WITH OUR CARROTS, THIS CAN
BE THE ENGINE OF GROWTH FOR THE 21STCEPTORY.
IF WE DO THIS RIGHT, IT CAN BE GOOD FOR PUBLIC HEALTH, GO FOR
SECURITY, GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY AND WE CERTAINLY HOPE IT WILL
STABILIZE THE CLIMATE.
THOSE ARE OUR WEB SITES AND I THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR THAT.
(APPLAUSE).
>> PANELISTS PLEASE COME UP AND LET'S CAN HUH.
>> WE'RE NOW GOING TO HAVE A PANEL DISCUSSION.
JUST COME UP TO THE MIKE AND ASK THE QUESTIONS HAVE YOU FOR
THE ENTIRE PANEL.
BEFORE WE GET QUESTIONS, WE'RE GOING TO GIVE‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
DIPLOMAS, CERTIFICATES TO THE PANEL IN APPRECIATION FOR A
WONDERFUL FORUM TODAY.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
(APPLAUSE).
>> THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
(APPLAUSE).
>> SO GO AHAD.
ANYBODY HAVE A GENERAL QUESTION, BUT A NUMBER OF YOU HAVE
TALK ABOUT YOUR RESEARCH AND OTHERS THAT HAS USED CLIMATE
VARIABILITY TYPICALLY YEAR TO YEAR OR MULTIYEAR VARIATION AS A
VERY IMPORTANT EXPERIMENTAL TOOL TO GIVE US A LOT OF
INFORMATION USEFUL TO PUBLIC HEALTH.
THE LONG‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
CHALLENGE FOR EXPERIMENTAL WORK OF COURSE SO MY QUESTION IS,
RATHER OPENED.
WE KNOW AT ONE LEVEL THAT WE CAN GENERATE USEFUL RESEARCH
AND DATA FROM THESE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
OF OUR CAREER OR IN THE TIME FRAME OF A RESEARCH GRANT.
HOW CAN WE USE THAT AND WHAT DO THE LONG‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
MOOLE SAY ABOUT CLIMB AT VARIABILITY IN RELATION TO THE SPAN OF
THE ACCUMULATE CHANGE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE?
>> ( INAUDIBLE ).
>> SO I BELIEVE YOUR QUESTION IS: IN A WARMING EARTH WHAT
HAPPEN TO CLIMB AT VAIRABILITY?
‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THERE'S STRONG IMPERICAL EVIDENCE FROM METEOROLOGICAL
RESOURCES FROM TERM OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT
EXTREME EVENTS ARE MORE FREE KEPT.
THIS CAN ONLY BE DRAWN FROM AREA WHERE YOU HAVE GOOD CLIMBA
TO LOGICAL DATA TO BASE THOSE ON, BUT THE ARK SUSMGZ IS THAT
A‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
YOU WILL HAVE MORE PRECIPITATION AND TELL BE DISTRIBUTED
DIFFERENTLY AND YOU WILL EXPECT MORE AS A CONQUENCE OF THAT
BECAUSE OF SENSIBLE HEAT ANDALATEN HEAT AND YOU'LL HAVE MORE
EXTREME TEMPERATURE EVENTS.
NOW WHETHER THIS WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT, SO PEOPLE
WILL NOTICE IT OR ONLY SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT, IS AN OPEN QUESTION.
>> I MIGHT JUST GO ON TO SAY THAT ANOTHER FACET OF THIS IS IF
THERE IS CONTINUED CHANGE WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT ON DISEASES
AND OF COURSE NOBODY CAN REALLY PREDICT THAT.
I MIGHT USE AN EXAMPLE OF RIFT VALLEY FEVER THOUGH, WE'VE SEEN
THAT THE INDIAN OCEAN IS CONTINUING TO WARM.
SO THAT MEANS THAT WE WILL GENERALLY ASSUME THAT MEANS
THERE'S GOING TO BE MORE RAINFALL OVER THE INDIAN OCEAN AND
MORE RAINFALL OVER EAST AFRICA AND THAT HAPPEN TO BE CORRECT.
THERE'S MORE RAINFALL.
SO THE NEXT ASSUMPTION YOU MIGHT MAKE IS WELL, IF THERE'S MORE
RAINFALL, THEN THERE MUST BE MORE DISEASE OUTBREAK.
WELL THAT DOESN'T EXACTLY FIT.
WHAT WE SEE IS, THERE'S MORE SMALL OUTBREAKS AND WHAT HAPPENS
IS, YOU DEVELOP AN IMMUNITY BECAUSE OF THE SMALL OUTBREAKS SO
IT APPEAR THAT THE CHANCE OF HAVING A LARGER OUTBREAK BASED
ON OCEAN WARMING, INCREASE RAINFALL MAY BE DIMINISH, BUT
AGAIN, I THINK YOU KNOW THIS IS IN A FAIRLY SMALL CONPARTICULAR
AND THIS IS ALL BASE ON THIS‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EARTH THAT THERE'S AN EQUILL LIBRIUM‫ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬M
THAT EVERYTHING REMAINING ONS IN TACT AND IF AND WE NEED TO
START ALL OVER AND THAT'S SAYING THAT IF EVERYTHING I'VE DONE IS
IRRELEVANT BECAUSE OF NEW CLIMATE PARADIGM.
>> I WILL SAY, JUST AS A NONECPERT ON THIS PARTICULAR SUBJECT
THAT IF YOU HAD GONE TO TALKS LIKE THIS, 10 YEARS AGO, YOU WILL
HAVE FOUND A NUMBER OF GENERALIZATIONS MADE BUT THE LEVEL OF
RESOLUTION WILL HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS, THE SPECIFICITY WOULD
HAVE BEEN MUCH LESS.
SO THE SEN I HAVE IS WE'RE BEGINNING TO BETTER COLLECT AND
EXPLOIT THOSE DATA ADMITTEDLY AS KEN AND JIM POINT OUT,
AUTOPROBABLY GOING TO BE A MOVING TARGET BUT WE'RE DOING A
MUCH BETTER JOB OF COLLECTING AND EXPLOITING THOSE DATA AND
LOOKING AT VARIABLES THAT ARE MEANINGFUL.
SO YOU KNOW THAT GIVE ME SOME ENCOURAGEMENT TO THINK THAT
WE ARE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE SURFACE OF WHAT'S CAN BE DONE HERE AND I THINK IT'S
REASONABLE TO THINK THAT WE WOULD HAVE CONTINUED PROGRESS
AS WE CONTINUE TO COLLECT MORE DATA AND HAVE BETTER METHODS.
>> I'M GOING TO SAY FROM THE WATER INDUSTRY'S PERSPECTIVE THAT
THERE ARE I THINK TRYING TO CONVINCE COMMUNITIES AND PART
OF‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE NEXT 50 YEAR OUT.
SO THEY'RE LOOKING AT THESE CLIMATE PROJECTION BUT FOR
EXAMPLE, IN THE GREAT LAKES THERE'S ONE MODEL THAT SUGGEST
AUTOGOING TO BE DRYER AND WARMER AND MY MODEL SUGGEST IT'S
GOING TO BE WETTER AND WARMER, NOW WARMER MEANS LESS WATER
GENERALLY IN THE GREAT LAKE BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE
EVAPORATION SO EVEN THE WATER INDUSTRY THAT DRAW WATER FOR
COOLING BEING HAVE ISSUES.
SO THERE'S A WHOLE LIST OF THINGS THAT THE INDUSTRY THAT
INTERSECTS WITH QUANTITIES STARTING TO THINK ABOUT, I THINK ON
THE WASTE WATER SIDE THEY'RE NOT THINKING TOO MUCH ON THE
QUALITY.
THEY'RE NOT THINKING TOO MUCH ON THE QUALITY SIDE, BOTHOT
DROUGHT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THEY'RE STARTING TO DEAL WITH THESE PREDIC AND UNCERTAINTY
AND VARIABILITY OF THESE PREDICTIONS AND THEIR PLANNING, THE
QUALITY IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO GRAPPLE WITH AND
WHAT SHOULD WE DO.
>> SO THIS QUESTION GOES TO DR. EPSTEIN'S CLOSING COMMENTS
WHERE YOU MENTION STABILIZATION WEDGES.
THESE IDEAS OF THINGS WE CAN DO TO HALT THE CHANGE AND‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
KNOW I KNOW THIS OPENS UP A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT CAN OF WORMS
THAN WHAT WE'RE ADDRESSING TODAY IN DEALING WITH GLOBAL
TREATIES BUT I WOULD BE CURIOUS TO HEAR YOUR BRIEF THOUGHTS ON
IT BECAUSE YOU BROUGHT IT UP, YOU KNOW ALL THESE THING WE DO
THAT WE TALK ABOUT DOING, LIKE, YOU KNOW HYBRID VEHICLE WHICH
IS FROM FOSSIL FUEL AND ALL OF THAT ARE FAIRLY EASY FOR DEVELOP
COUNTRY AND THEN HAVE YOU DEVELOPING COUNTRIES LIKE CHINA
THAT HAVE HUGE COAL RESERVES AND ARE BURNING COAL AND DON'T
CAPTURE OR SEQUESTER THE CARBON AND ALL OF THAT.
ANDNYING TO GET GLOBAL COOPERATION TO ACHIEVE STABILIZATION
IS‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SOLUTIONS, IS GUESS.
‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
>> THANK YOU.
I THINK LET'S EXCHANGE CARDS TOO SO WE SHOULD COMMUNICATE
FURTHER, BUT I JUST‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
YOU, WE NEED A LOT MORE COLLABORATION.
WE NEED MORE FUNDS ON AN INTERNATIONAL BASIS FOR ARK AT THAT
POINTATION AND LITIGATION AND THAT WAS SOMETHING THAT OF
PROPOSE AT KYOPARTICULAR O BY THE BRAZILLIANS CLEAN
DEVELOPMENT FUND AND WE WOUND UP WITH A CLEAN DEVELOPMENT
MECHANISM AND SEVERAL OF THEM AND WE'RE SUFFERING BECAUSE OF
THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT.
BUT LET'S TAKE THIS OFFLINE AND CONTINUE BECAUSE I DO THINK
AUTOA WHOLE AREA‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AROUND TO THE GROUP BECAUSE WE HAVE‫ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬E
BACK TO YOU, WE HAVE NIH, U. S. D. A., N. S. F.‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
U. S. D. A., NASA REPRESENTED HERE, U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH
PROGRAM WAS STARTED 21 YEARS AGO AND THEN BECAME THE CLIMATE
PROGRAM BUT DID INVOLVE 17 AGENCIES INCLUDING NIH.
SO I WONDER WHAT YOUR SENSE IS WHERE WE MIGHT TAKE THIS IN
TERM OF INITIATIVES ON CLIMATE AND HEALTH?
>> THROUGH THE NEXTA MINISTRATION‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
>> I'M NOT SURE I CAN ANSWER.
SO I THINK I'LL TURN IT OVER TO‫﷓ ﷓‬
>> ULAR IN‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬GROUP, AS
A PROGRAM.
AND TO HOPE FOR BETTER TIMES WHERE WE HAVE THE RESOURCES TO
INVEST IN THE PRIORITY AREAS THAT WE SEE OCCURRING.
I THINK FOR US, THE NUMBER ONE PRIORITY AREA HAS TO BE FOOD
SECURITY, HAS TO BE FOOD SUPPLY.
IF‫ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬EVERYTHING ELSE, EVERY OTHER
PUBLIC HEALTH ISSUE IS SUBSERVEIENT AS TO WHETHER THERE'S FOOD
ON THE TABLE AND IF THAT'S AFFECT, EVERYTHING ELSE IS AFFECT.
SO WENY TO VERY SOON‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
MITIGATION AND STRATEGIES TO INVEST IN MORE INFRASTRUCTURE
THAT CAPTURES RAIN WATER THAT WON'T BE THERE AS SNOW OR ICE.
WHETHER AUTOAN ADAPTATION TO EVALUATE GERM PLASM TO
TOLERATE DROUGHT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
UNTIL THAT ISSUE GETS ON THE TABLE AND UNTIL THAT ISSUE GET ON
PEOPLE'S RADAR, I DON'T THINK THERE'S GOING TO BE THE POLITICAL
WILL TO TRY AND BEGIN TO DO THE RESEARCH THAT WE REALLY NEED
TO DO.
THE OTHER ISSUE AND I CAN'T SPEAK FOR EVERYONE HERE BUT I THINK,
IN SOME SENSE A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE TOLD ME THIS AND AUTOTRUE
FOR OUR AGENCY, OUR AVERAGE AGE OF SCIENTIST IS IN THE 50S.
WE DESPERATELY NEED YOUNG SCIENTISTS, YOUNG Ph.D.S TO COME ON
BOARD.
WE NEED NEW PEOPLE, WE NEED NOW IDEAS, WE'RE JUST NOT GETTING
IT.
THE PRIORITY IS NOT FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING AND
TECHNOLOGY, THE PRIORITY SEEMS TO BE FOR HEDGE FUND MANAGERS.
BUT THAT'S GOT TO CHANGE.
WE HAVE TO SOMEHOW GET YOUNG PEOPLE ON BOARD AND GET THEM
INVOLVED WITH THESE ISSUES.
SO, ANYWAY, THAT'S MY TAKE ON IT.
(APPLAUSE).
>> I THINK PERSONALLY AUTONAIVE TO BELIEVE THAT THESE ISSUES
COULD REMAINING ON MERELY SCIENTIFIC ISSUES AND BE
DEPOLITICIZED WHICH IS PROBABLY WAS NEEDS TO HAPPEN AND I MEAN
IN AN AGE WHEN PEOPLE CONSIDER EVOLUTION TO BE A POLITICAL
ISSUE, SOMETHING THAT SCIENTISTS CONSIDER LONG SETTLED, I THINK,
YOU KNOW IT IS NAIVE FOR ME TO HOPE THAT WE CAN GET THE POLITICS
OUT OF IT AND GO BACK TO DOING THE SCIENCE.
I THINK THAT FUNDAMENTALLY IS WHAT WE NEED.
BUT, I'M HOPEFUL THAT PERHAP SOMEDAY THAT THAT MAY HAPPEN.
ALSO DURING LUNCH, ONE OF THE‫﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THINK SUGGEST THAT THERE'S THE NEED FOR A STANDING PLATFORM IF
YOU WILL FOR A GENERAL OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE ON A REGULAR
BASIS WHO ARE INTERESTED IN THESE ISSUES TO TALK ABOUT THEM AS
WE ARE TODAY AND BE ABLE TO EXCHANGE INFORMATION TO BUILD A
COMMUNITY THAT'S LARGER THAN WHAT WE HAVE NOW.
>> WELL I MIGHT JUST MAKE ANOTHER SORT OF GENERAL COMMENT
THAT ACTUALLY RIGHT NOW IN FEDERAL REGULATIONS, THERE ARE
SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANDIAL REQUIREMENT FOR FERAL AGENCIES TO DO
MUCH OF WHAT YOU'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT, PAUL.
AND OUR LABORATORY IS A FAIRLY SMALL LABORATORY IN FLORIDA,
BUT AS A DIRECTOR THERE, I TRY TO ENFORCE OUR FERAL ENERGY
POLICY AND REGULATION AND WE HAVE A MANDATE TO REDUCE OUR
ENERGY USAGE, REDUCE OUR WATER USAGE AND OUR SCIENTISTSS AND
OUR TECHNICIAN ARE ALSO EVALUATED ON THEIR ABILITY TO MANAGE
THE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WE'RE LUCKY IN GAINVILLE THAT OUR REGIONAL UTILITIESS OFFERS
TREMENDOUS INCENTIVES SO WE'VE ENTER INTO A MULTIMILLION
DOLLAR FEDERAL ENERGY SAVING PROCUREMENT CONTRACT TO
BORROW MILLION OF DOLLARS TO UPGRADE ALL OF OUR LIGHTING
SYSTEM, OUR HVAC ISS WE'RE PUTTING IN POTENTIALLY PHOTOCELLS TO
GENERATE POWER AND WE'LL SELL THAT BACK TO THE GRID AND MUCH
OF THIS WILL BE SUBSIDIZE BY LOCAL AND STATE.
WE ALREADY REDUCE OUR ENERGY USAGE BY 10 TO 15% EACH OF THE
LAST TWO YEAR.
AUTONOT THAT DIFFICULT TO DO.
I THINK THE COMMENTS ABOUT THAT WE NEED MORE NEW SCIENTISTS,
YOUNG SCIENTISTS IN OUR FIELD IS CORRECT.
BUT I'M REALLY ENTHUSED BY OUR YOUNG SCIENTISTS WHO REALLY
EMBRACE THIS CONCEPT.
MAY‫﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE LITTLE BITOLER ONES TO GET ON BOARD AND SO WE HELP OUT.
WE PLANT INDIGENOUS PLANTS, DOUBT RESISTANT LABORATORY AND
WE MOVE ALL OF OUR GLASS, IT'S ALL MULCH.
WE HAVE ENDANGERS SPECIES OF PLANT AT OUR LAB RAY TORSCHEWE
GET EXTRA CREDIT IF WE GO OUT AND HELP WEED IN THE MULCH AREA.
ON EARTH DAY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THAT EVENT AND WE'LL GET
EXTRA CREDIT FOR IT.
SO, I THINK THERE ARE THINGS BEING DONE, BUT IT'S A MATTER OF
DOING MANY OF THOSE.
AT LEAST FROM THE FEDERAL STANDPOINT I THINK.
JUST A QUICK COMMENT, ONE OF THE THING I'M IMPRESSED WITH AND
GIVE ME HOPE IS THAT AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL, AT THE LOCAL LEVEL,
THERE IS LOTS OF STUFF GOING ON.
LOTS PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF THE PROBLEM.
LOTS OF PEOPLE ARE DOING THINGS TO ADDRESS IT.
EVEN AT THE STATE LEVEL.
IT'S THE FEDERAL LEVEL, THE UNITY LEVEL THAT YOU DON'T SEE ANY
SORT OF LEADERSHIPOT ISSUE AND THAT'S BEEN VERY DISAPPOINTING.
>> AND I JUST WANT TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO RECOGNIZE MARY
GAUNT, E. H. I. S INITIATIVES FOR SEVERAL DECADES.
(APPLAUSE).
>> SO AS YOU KNOW THAT SOME PEOPLE DOUBT ABOUT THE DIVERSE
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING, ARE THERE ANY REPORTS SHOWING
BENEFICIAL EFFECTS OF ( INAUDIBLE ).
>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT WARMING AND WE LOOK AT THE RISE IN CO2,
THERE ARE CERTAINLY GOING TO BE SOME PLANT SPECIES, I TALKED
ABOUT THE BAD ONES BUT THERE ARE SOME GOOD ONES THAT RESPOND
TO IT AS WELL, THINGS LIKE RICE AND WHEAT AND SOYBEAN THAT
RESPONPOSITIVELY TO CONSIDERINGOSH TWO AND ONE OF THE THING
WE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON AND PUBLISHING PAPERS ABOUT IS HOW DO
WE SELECT FOR BEST VARIETIESS OF THESE SPECIESS IN ORDER TO
EXPLOIT THE RISE IN CO2.
THE PROBLEM IS THIS, THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 SPECIES THAT FEED
90% OF THE WORLD, AND OF THOSE THREE, CORN, WHEAT AND RICE ARE
50% OF THAT.
THERE ARE 10 WEED SPECIES ARE EACH OF THOSE CROP SPECIESS.
NOW IF I HAVE A SITUATION WHERE I HAVE THE CROP GROWING IN THE
FIELD AND I HAVE EIGHT TO 10 DIFFERENT WEED SPECIES GROWING IN
THE FIELD AND THE CROP IS GENETICALLY UNIFORM AND THE WEEDS
ARE NOT, THEY'RE DIVERSE AND I CHANGE A RESOURCE, YEAH, WHAT'S
GOING TO RESPOND, THE CROP?
OR THE WEEDS?
AND WE SEE TIME AND TIME AGAIN AUTOTHE WE THAT RESPOND AND
THE CROP YELLS GO DOWN.
IT'S NOT THAT THEY'RE NOT CAPABLE, THEY JUST DON'T RESPOND AS
MUCH AS THE WE.
SO THERE CAN POTENTIALLY BE BENEFIT BUT PART OF THOSE HAVE TO
BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION WITH WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL AND THAT'S SOMETHING WE DON'T KNOW
ENOUGH ABOUT YET AND THIS IS AN AREA WE NEED TO ADDRESS.
>> ANYONELE WANT TO WEIGH IN HERE IN?
>> JUST A COUPLE HEALTH REPORTS, THERE'S SOME
MOOLING,‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
BECAME DRYER.
WE DID WORK IN HONDURAS IN 1983 SHOWED THAT MALARIA DECREASE
IN THE SOUTHERN PART BECAUSE IT HAD BECOME A DESERT FROM SO
MUCH WARMING AS WELL AS COASTAL REDUCTION AND THE MANGE
ROVES FOR ACWACULTURE AND SO ON AND A WHOLE SERIES OF THINGS
TO THE DESERTIFICATION SO THE MOSQUITOES MOVE OR DISAPPEARED.
UNFORT MATILY THE PEOPLE ALSO GOT DRIVEN OUT, WENT TO THE
FOREST IN THE NORTH WHERE THEY CONTINUE TO BE EXPOSED TO
MALARIA.
ONE AREA THAT'S GOTTEN A LOT OF ATTENTION IS WILL WE HAVE LESS
COLD WINTER RELATE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
DISEASE AND SO ON AND I THINK STEVE HINT AT SOME OF THE
DIFFICULTIESS IN THAT CONCLUSION.
THERE ARE OTHER CONCERNS THAT THE EPECULIARA HAS BEGUN
LOOKING AT IN TERM OF WEATHER PATTERNS AND ANOMALY, AND
WINTER‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EXCUSE ME IF YOU GET MORE WINTER PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN
AND SNOW AND THEN A COLD NAP OR NIGHT TIME COLD, YOU CAN GET
MORE ICE STORMS.
SO ARE WE SEEING MORE ICE STORMS?
DOES THAT PRODUCE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
>> DOES THAT PRODUCE ISSUES FOR MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTS?
ORTHOPEDIC WEATHER WE MIGHT CALL THIS?
SO THERE ARE MANY QUESTION ABOUT THE STABILITY, AGAIN THE
VARIABILITY OF IT AS A KEY ISSUE.
>> THIS HAS BEEN A VERY INTERESTING GROUP OF TALKS AND
WONDERFUL.
I HAVE A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS AND OF COURSE, I DON'T
KNOW‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
PRICEIS IN ASIA.
IT'S VERY DRAMATIC AND THAT IS REALLY AFFECTING THE POPULATION.
I'M NOT SURE IF AUTOALL CONTRIBUTED DUE TO THESE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN, BUT THIS WILL GO ON.
AUTONOT GOING TO STOP.
THIS IS JUST GOING TO CREATE MORE AND MORE PROBLEMS.
HOW DO WE SOLVE IT sA A GROUP, AS SOMEBODY NOT JUST ONE
COUNTRY OR TWO COUNTRY, BUT AS PEOPLE LIVING IN THE SAME
PLANET, YOU KNOW ON THE SCALE?
AND THEN ALL THE ISSUES WE TALKED ABOUT, WE TALKED ABOUT HOW
MUCH INTEREST THERE IS IN THE AWARENESS THERE IS ON THE LOCAL
LEVEL AND SMALLER LEVEL, BUT HOW DO WE AS SCIENTISTS CREATE
AWARENESS ON THE GLOBAL LEVEL AS MUCH AND CREATE A POLITICAL
WORLD.
THAT'S THE BIGGEST THING UNLESS THERE IS POLITICAL WORLD, WE CAN
THINK UP AS MANY SCENARIOS AND WISH LISTS AND WE ARE GOING
NOWHERE.
>> LET ME JUST COMMENT QUICKLY ON FOOD CRISIS.
YES YOU'RE RIGHT.
IT ISN'T JUST CRIMEATIC ON DRIVING FOOD PRICES, IT'S SORT OF THE
PHRASE PERFECT STORM AGAIN COMES TO MIND BUT YOU'RE LOOKING
AT AS DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD GAIN IN ECONOMIC STATURE,
THERE'S A GREATER DEMAND FOR MEAT SO SOME OF THAT CORN IS
GOING TO GO TO MEAT.
THERE'S ALSO OIL‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
RISES THAT WILL REFLECT NO GRAIN.
BUT CERTAINLY THERE'S ISSUE TO THAT AND BIOFUEL IS AN ISSUE.
I'M NOT ANTIBIOFUEL, BUT THE PROBLEM THAT I SEE IS THAT IF YOU
ONLY HAVE THREE GRAINS THAT ARE FEEDING THE WORLD, WHEAT, RICE
AND CORN AND THE ONLY ONE THAT KEPT PACE WITH POPULATION AND
YOU SUDDENLY SAY I'M GOING TO CONVERT THAT OVER INTO BIOFUELS,
AS I SAID THAT'S NOT THE BEST POLICY TO PURSUE.
BUT OTHER ISSUES LIKE WE JUST FINISHED A IS IT WITH AUBURN
UNIVERSITY LOOKING AT KASABA GROWTH IN PLANTS, THIS IS GROW IN
SEVERE DOUBT AND IT PRODUCE MORE CARBOHYDRATES THAN CORN
DID, TWICE AS MUCH WE WERE LOOKING AT SWEET POTATO, THEY
PRODUED THREE TIME AS MUCH CARBOHYDRATE AS CORN.
AN INVASIVE VINE THAT I SHOW CAN PRODUCE A CARBOHIGHERATE.
THEY GET RID OF AN INVASIVE AND TURN IT INTO A BIOFUEL.
SO THERE ARE LOTS OF OPPORTUNITIESES FOR BIOFUEL, BUT TAKING THE
ONE GRAIN THAT CONVERTS INTO BIOFUELS, IS REALLY JUST ASININE.
SO ALL OF THOSE WILL CONTINUE.
WHAT CAN WE DO?
TO A LARGE EXTENT WHAT WE CAN TRY AND DO IS TO MAKE A MORE
INTELLIGENT ASSESSMENT OF WHAT WE SHOULD PURSUE WITH RESPECT
TO BIOFUEL AND GIVING FARMERS MONEY TO GROW CORN FOR
BIOFUELS IS ONE OF THE THING WE CAN STOP DOING.
AGAIN, THIS IS MY PERSONAL OPINION IF YOU'RE WATCHING AT HOME.
THIS IS NOT THE U. S. D. A. POLICY, THERE'S A LOT OF WORK WE CAN DO
WITH RESPECT TO INVESTING FUNDS IN RESEARCH TO TRY AND LOOK AT
THE GERM PLASM, TO LOOK AT WHAT WE HAVE AVAILABLE AND SEE IF
WE CAN INCREASE YIELD ON THAT.
FOR EXAMPLE, THERE'S A PROPOSAL WE'VE BEEN WORKING ON TO TRY
AND TURN RICE INTO A CFOUR PLANT WHICH WOULD BOOST YIELD BY
50% DRAMATICALLY.
IT WOULD REQUIRE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF INVESTMENT IN TERM
OF THE NUMBER OF SCIENTISTS AND TO DO THE GENE JOCKEYING THAT
YOU WILLNY TO DO TO GET THAT BUT AUTOA HIGH PAY OFF SITUATION,
IF ‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓‬
ABOUT AND HER HAPPENS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE, WENY TO TALK
ABOUT THEM.
WE NEED TO GET THEDIFFERENT SCIENTISTS FROM THE DIFFERENT
AGENCIES AND DISCIPLINESS AND GET THEM IN THE ROOM AND GET
THEM ON THE TABLE AND TRY AND GET THE POLICY MAKERS ON BOARD
WITH IT.
AS FAR AS YOUR SECOND QUESTION, HOW DO WE GET THE POLICY
MAKERS ON BOARD?
I HAVE ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA.
I, AGAIN AT THE REGIONAL LEVEL, THERE'S A LOT OF INTEREST, A LOT
GOING ON, AT THE FEDERAL LEVEL, WE JUST DON'T SEE ANY INTEREST IN
PURSUING THIS.
>> I THINK IT MUST BE A SIGNAL OF SOMETHING.
YOUR POINT ABOUT POLITICAL WILL IS VERY WELL TAKEN THAT'S
CERTAINLY NECESSARY, AND OBVIOUSLY ALL THE VARIOUS EFFORTS,
YOU KNOW AS POWERFUL AS THE IPC C, AND THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
HAVE NOT YET BEEN SUFFICIENT, SO I'LL MAKE A SORT OF MODEST
OBSERVATION WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE USEFUL.
WHEN YOU THINK OF ALL THE ORGANIZATION THAT PAUL SHOW FOR
EXAMPLE THAT OBVIOUSLY ARE INTERESTED IN CONTINUING THE WAY
WE ARE NOW, AND YOU CONSIDER THEIR LOBBYING POWER, YOU KNOW
LIKE THE ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR EXAMPLE, THE
COAL COMPANIES, THE OIL COMPANIES AND SO ON, THE LOBBYING
POWER WITH GOVERNMENTS AND YOU KNOW WHICH ARE ABSOLUTELY
OBVIOUSLY, WE ALL KNOW HOW LARGE THAT IS, AND YOU CAN
CONSIDER HOW SMALL THE LOBBY IS, I MEAN AUTOJUST US, SO I THINK
WE NEED TO ORGANIZE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT HOW SMALL THE
LOBBY IS, COMPARED TO THESE ENORMOUS CORPORATE LOBBYS, YOU
KNOW FOR THESE OTHER ISSUES.
SO TO TAKE A LEAP FROM PAUL'S BOOK, ORGANIZE MORE, I DON'T KNOW
BUT THERE IS A NEED FOR A MORE CONCERTED RESPONSE IN BRINGING
TOGETHER ALL THESE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THESE CONCERNS BUT
HAVEN'T YET BEEN ABLE TO STATE THEM IN A POLITICALLY FORCEFUL
WAY.
SO THAT'S A NAIVE THOUGHT BUT I'LL OFFER IT FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH.
>> GO AHAD.
>> OKAY.
I DO THINK THAT GREATER SPECIFICITY OF INFORMATION AND
COMMUNICATION IS ONE OF THE GOAL.
THERE HAS BEEN A DECLINE OF SCIENCE COMMUNICATION TO POLICY
LEADERS AND WE DON'T HAVE GOOD PATHWAY CURRENTLY TO DO
THAT.
AND I PART OF IT IS JUST THE MILLENNIUM GOALS OF ACCESS TO SAFE
WATER OR ACCESS TO SANITATION THEY'RE VERY ILL DEFINED.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY WE DON'T SAY ERADICATION OF CHOLERA
ANDIFY FOR IDENTIFICATION WHICH WE DID IN THE UNITED STATES BY
IMPROVING SANITATION AND DRINKING WATER AND IF WE HAD
GREATER SPECIFICITY AND DIRECTED TOWARDS THOSE TARGETS THAT
ARE MEASURABLE AND REPORTABLE, I THINK WE WOULD BE A LOT
BETTER OFF.
SO WE HAVE TO START ARTICULATING THAT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
MEASURABLE GOAL AND THEN TRYING TO MEASURE THEM AND IT JUST,
IT TAKE A LONG TIME TO MOVE THE POLITICAL WHALE.
I'VE SEEN IT DONE BUT ON THINGS THAT ARE OBVIOUS, IT MAY TAKE A
DECADE AND SOME WHALE ARE HARDER TO MOVE THAN OTHER.
BUT I THINK ONE OF THE KEYS IS GOOD SCIENCE THAT HAS GREATER
SPECIFICITY AND COMMUNICATION FROM A BROAD GROUP AND AN
AUTHORITATIVE GROUP.
>> JUST BEFORE YOU ASK QUESTION OR COMMENT ON FOOD.
FIRST THE PROPER REFERENCE SINCE WE'RE A SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY
THAT'S MOTHER JOAN, SO, ON FOOD.
SLIP INTO LIEU'S COMMENTS WERE ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE THINGS,
CLIMATE AND SEVERE WEATHER, BIOFUELS, FUEL PRICES, WHICH IS
UNDERLIE SPECIFIES AND FERTILIZER AS WELL AS FUEL AND THEN THE
MEAT DEMAND AND DECLINING FISHERS IS ANOTHER ISSUE THAT SET
THE MARGINAL STAGE.
BUT THE FIRST THREE I MENTION ARE ALL ABOUT FUEL AND CLIMATE,
THEY'RE ABOUT ENERGY, BIOFUEL.
FUEL PRICES AND SEVERE WEATHER AS WE'VE JUST TALKED ABOUT TIED
TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
SO FOR ME, THERE'S A LOT BEING WE BE.
THOSE ARE THE THINGS I THINK HAVE KICK IT UP ABOUT 83% IN THE LAST
THREE OR FOUR MONTH.
WITH THE CIVIL UNREST IN 33 COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO ROBERT OF THE
WORLD BANK, SO WE'RE REALLY IN A VERY TIGHT SPOT AND THAT
COMES TO WHERE WE CAN MOVE TOWARD, THAT BEING STABILIZE THESE
ISSUE, WE'RE ALL IN ANOTHER CRISIS WHICH IS THE FINANCIAL ONE.
AND HOW MIGHT WE PUT THIS ALL TOGETHER IS THE QUESTION FOR US, I
THINK IN ADDITION TO THE CORPORATIONS WE'VE JUST TALKED ABOUT,
THERE ARE CORPORATIONS LIKE JP MORGAN CHASE, AND CITY GROUP,
AS WELL AS REINSURERS AND INSURURES AND A. I. D. AND LLOYDSS AND
SO ON, THAT ARE LOOKING FOR AN INVESTMENT IN REAL WEALTH GIVEN
THE PAPER WEALTH THAT'S JUST GONE UP IN SMOKE.
AND ABOUT‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IT'S ACTUAL BEEN $45 TRILLION WORTH OF EXOTIC DERRIFFATIVE, IN
TWO THEN ONE THERE WERE 900 BILLION.
SO WE'VE SEEN AN ESCALATION OF SOMETHING, SO WE'RE UNSTABLE IN
MANY WAYS AND THAT MIGHT BE THE BAD STORY, IT MIGHT ALSO BE A
WAY OUT OF REALLY INVESTING IN CLEAN ENERGY AS A WAY OF
ADDRESSING FOOD AND SECURITY.
>> I JUST WANT TO THANK THE PANEL FOR GIVING US EICATIONAL AND
VERY INFORMATIONAL TALK ABOUT THIS FIELD.
BECAUSE TALKING ABOUT THINGS MOST RELATED TO OUR LIFE, THE AIR,
THE WATER, AND THE FOOD; AND INDEED THE ENVIRONMENT.
THAT ESSENTIAL FOR OUR HUMAN BEINGS AND ANIMAL.
I HAVE A COMMENT AND ALL HAVE A QUESTION.
YOU ALL TALKING ABOUT CO2, THIS IS A NAIVE QUESTION, MAYBE
AUTOLAUGHABLE, WHAT IS THE LOW OF A HUMAN BEING OURSELVES,
WE INHALE OCGEN, WE EXHALE CO2 AND YOU SEE THE POPULATION
BECOME MORE AND MORE, PEOPLE LIVE LONGER AND LONGER AND WE
BECOME BIGGER, BIGGER, HIGHER, HIGHER SO PRESUMABLY WE
CONSUME MOREOX OXYGEN, EXPEL MORE OF THE PRODUCT.
IS THIS ACCUMULATION OF THAT CONTRIBUTE A LITTLE BIT MAYBE
BECAUSE ALL THE FOOD OR THE PLANT CONVERT IT BACK?
I DON'T KNOW THAT IS MY‫﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
THE LAST CONCLUSION ABOUT ALL OF THE WAYS, HOW CAN WE
CHANGE?
HOW CAN WE STABILIZE THE ENVIRONMENT?
I THINK ONE THING I'VE BEEN THINKING BECAUSE YOUR LECTURE VERY
INTRIGUING AND INSPIRING TO THINK ABOUT, HOW ABOUT WE EVEN GO
TO FURTHER BUT IT'S DIFFICULT PROBABLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR ALL OF US
IN THE GROUP, THINK OF THE LIFESTYLE OF AMISH PEOPLE.
HOW MUCH ENERGY THEY CONSUME.
THEY DON'T HAVE ELECTRICITY, EVERYTHING MANUAL, YOUR OWN
FOOD AND THEN THEY PRODUCE THE LOCAL FOOD, NEED NO
TRANSPORTATION AND THEN OF COURSE, FOR US WE WERE NOT BORN TO
THIS SOCIETY, IF WE GO THERE THE IMPOSSIBLE FOR US, BUT EACH
LITERALLY IN EVERY ASPECT MAYBE CAN‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WE'RE TALKING ABOUT IS HUMAN ACTIVITIES.
WE CONSUME.
WE ENTERTAIN.
WE USE ELECTRICITY.
WE TRAVEL.
EDUCATION.
AND THEN I THINK WE CANNOT GO BACK LIKE AMISH PEOPLE DO BUT I
THINK IN CERTAIN DEGREE, WE MAY GO TO THE CHILD‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
TO WORK, THING LIKE THAT AND EAT THE SIMPLE FOOD, NOT THE
PROCESSING FOOD.
SO THAT'S MY COMMENT AND I HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT WATER.
SINCE WE WANT TO TAKE SOME‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WATER WE DRINK, CAN YOU GIVE US SOME IDEA ABOUT OUR TAP WATER.
IS THIS A GOOD PRACTICE TO DRINK BOILING WATER, THE WATER AND
THEN ALL WHAT'S THE STORY IN BECAUSE I ARE ARTICLE ABOUT THE
PLASTIC BOLGHT WATER, HOW DO WE DEAL WITH WATER, CAN YOU GIVE
US SOME IDEA?
THANK YOU.
>> JUST A QUICK RESPONSE TO THE FIRST PART, EUROPE AND JEOPARDY
AN ARE TWICE AS ENERGY EFFICIENT AS THE U.S.
THAT'S THE FIRST STEP WHERE WE ALL CAN CONTRIBUTE AND WE ALSO
HAVE TO THINK ABOUT THE ENABLING REGULATIONS AND CENTERS AND
TECHNOLOGIES THAT CAN MAKE US MUCH MORE EFFICIENT.
FOR ME THAT'S THE FIRST NO‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AND WE CAN GENERATE A LOT OF JOB OUT OF THE TECHNIQUES AND
COMPUTERS AND FEEDBACK SYSTEMS AND MUCH BETTER BATTERY AND
ALL OF THAT TO SET THIS AS A NEW LIFESTYLE.
I THINK IT IS A NEED THAT KIND OF INITIATIVE THAT WE CAN'T DEPEND
ON EVERY INDIVIDUAL TO CHANGE THE BEHAVIOR BUT THEY WILL IF
THERE'S THE RIGHT INCENTIVE AND THE ABILITY TO DO SO.
>> THAT'S A WHOLE OTHER LECTURE, BUT I'M GOING TO LEAVE THE
BOTTLED WATER ASIDE, IT HAS A PHILOSOPHICAL ISSUE BECAUSE OF THE
COST, AND ACCESS, BUT SPREADING, THE IDEA OF IDEA OF BOLGHTED
WATER IS‫﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
BIG ISSUE OF WHETHER IT'S SAFER OR NOT SAFER AND THE PLASTIC AND
JUST THE COMSUMPTION OF IT ALL IS A WHOLE OTHER STORE AND I
THINK ANY INDUSTRY THAT USES A LOT OF WATER IS GOING TO HAVE TO
START LOOKING AT EFFICIENCIENY AND IN FACT IN AUSTRAILIA AND THE
STOP HOM PRIZE WINNER THIS YEAR CREATE A UNIT FOR PRODUCTS.
EVERYTHING FROM 52 TO OTHER PRODUCTS THAT WE MIGHT USE IN OUR
DAILY LIVES THAT HAVE A WATER UNIT ASK THEN START TO LOOK AT
WATER EFFICIENCIENY.
COMMUNITY‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
TAP WATER CAN BE MADE SAFE.
I'M MORE WORRIED NOW ABOUT TAP WATER BEING SAFE WITHOUT YOU
HAVING TO BOIL IT.
YOU KNOW SOME COUNTRY THEY JUST BOIL IT ON A ROUTINE BASIS.
IN ASIA MANY CASES THEY WON'T DRINK UNBOILED TAP WATER.
HAS TO BE BOILED FIRST.
SO I AM MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THAT BUT THE WATER ENERGY NEXUS
IS VERY, VERY, INTERESTING.
BECAUSE WATER UTILITY NEED TO LACK AT HOW THEY USE THEIR
ENERGY AND WASTE WATER UTILITIESS CAN CREATE ENERG AND THAT
GOES BACK TO POLICY.
SO WASTE WATER TREATMENT TO ENERGY APPROACHES AND ALSO
DISTRIBUTED NETWORKS FOR WASTE WATER TREATMENT MIGHT
IMPROVE THINGS WHERE WE USE WIND ENERGY TO DRIVE SMALLER
WATER PLANTS IN SMALL COMMUNITIESS.
SMALL NEIGHBORHOODS OR SOLAR TO DRIVE WATER TREATMENT
PLANTS OR TO PASTEURIZE WATER.
SO INNOVATIONS LIKE THAT WHERE AUTOSO DISTRIBUTED NETWORKS,
THINKING ABOUT ENERGY AND THINKING ABOUT THE BROADEREC
FICIENCIENCY OF‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
ARE PART OF THIS PICTURE OF THE WATER‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
WATER‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AND PEOPLE ARE STARTING TO THINK ABOUT THOSE KINDS OF ISSUES.
>> WE'RE GOING TO TAKE LAST QUESTION THAT CAME IN FROM E‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
>> THE ISSUES OF DEVELOPING ALTERNATIVE ENERGY SOURCES SUCH AS
NUCLEAR, SOLAR AND WIND ARE BROADER THAN JUST GLOBAL
WARMING.
ANOTHER KEY DRIVER IS TO DECREASE OUR DEPENDEN ON OIL GIVEN
ALL THE SURROUNDING POLITICAL ISSUES.
HAVE THERE BEEN HIGH LEVEL DISCUSSIONS TO TRY TO LEVERAGE THIS
BROAD ISSUE?
FINALLY THERE'S A STATEMENT FOLLOWING THAT QUESTION.
THE NEED TO REDUCE DEMAN FOR FOREIGN SOURCE FOSSIL FUELS
SHOULD BE QUITE CLEAR TO ANYONE STOPPING AT THEIR LOCAL GAS
STATIONS.
THE REDUCTION OF EMISSION OF CO2 WILL BE AN IMPORTANT BENEFIT
OF A NATIONAL STRATEGY TO DECREASE OUR DEPENNEN ON FOREIGN
OIL.
SO AGAIN THE QUESTION, HAVE THERE BEEN HIGH LEVEL DISCUSSIONS
TO TRY TO LEVERAGE THIS BROAD ISSUE?
>> WELL, I REALLY WELCOME THIS QUESTION.
I GUESS THE EASY ANSWER TO THE SECOND PART IS NO, NOT THAT I
KNOW OF.
BUT, BEHIND THE QUESTION IS A WHOLE SENSE OF THAT WENY A LIFE
CYCLE ANALYSIS, OF WHERE WE ARE AND WHERE WE'RE GOING.
AND IF ONE LOOKS AT OIL, ONE HAS TO THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEMS
WITH EXPLORATION AND EXTRACTION AND TRANSPORT AND THEN WE
REFINING AND THEN TRANSFORT‫﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
AND THEN WE COME TO COMBUSTION AND WE KNOW WE GET POLLUTION
AND NOW WE GET ACID RAIN AND THEN WE GET THE CLIMATE CHANGE
SO THAT'S THE ICING OR THE DE‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓‬
AND THEN I HAVEN'T EVEN MENTION SOME OF THE OTHER ISSUES WHICH
ONE IS PETROL CHEMICALS ARE DERIVEDDED FROM PETROL AND WE
KNOW THOSE PROBLEMS AND CARC O GENEISITY AND REPRODUCTIVEET
EATS AND THEN WE COME TO THE SOCIAL ISSUES OF CONFLICT AND ALL
OF THE INSECURITY WE'RE FACING MUCH OF IT, MANY PEOPLE HAVE
DIED TO THE PRIZE AS WHAT DANIEL CALLED OIL.
SO I AGREE WITH THIS, THE PREMISE BEHIND THIS.
THIS IS THE KIND OF LOOK WE NEED TO DO IN COAL AND OIL, NOT JUST
BURNING IT WITH CO2, THERE'S MERCURY AND THEN THERE'S MOUNTAIN
TOPS THAT ARE LOOKED AT TO PROCURE IT ASK OBTAIN AND ITEN WE
HAVE TO DO THE SAME FOR NUCLEAR, SOLAR, WIND, TAR SANDS AND
SHALE OIL SO WE DON'T CONTINUE TO FIND OURSELVES FOR PROBLEMS
FOR HEALTH AND THE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN HAVE TO BACK TRACK.
>> THANK YOU.
>> THANK YOU CAN WE TAKE THE‫﷓ ﷓‬
>> YEAH.
GO AHEAD.
>> YES THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS AND
INTERESTING WORDS OF WISDOM.
QUESTION FOR DR. MORSE, THERE ARE MANY REASONS FOR THE
EMERGENCE OF VARIOUS DISEASES AND INFECTIOUS AGENCIES AND
OTHERWISE.
HOW DOES THE LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY AND LOSS OF SPECIES INTERSECT
WITH THESE MIKE ROBIAL ADAPTATIONS AND CHANGES THAT YOU
KNOW ARE A BIG FACTOR IN THE MERGE ENS OF DISEASE.
THANK YOU, I THINK THAT'S AN INTERESTING QUESTION AND I THINK IN
MANY WAY, SIMILAR IN COMPLEXITY TO THE CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUE.
TRYING TO PREDICT THE EFFECT TO SOME EXTENT DEPENDSOT
CONDITIONS AND WE CERTAINLY KNOW IN CERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS
THAT FOR EXAMPLE, YOU HAVE DIDDEN HOST FOR SOME INFECTIONS,
AND IN MANY CASES IN THESE NATURAL ENVIRONMENTS, THERE IS AN
EQUILIBRIUM MAINTAIN WITH THESE INFECTION WHICH GET INTO
DEADEN HOSTS AND THEREFORE ARE NOT AMPPLIFIED TO INFECT OTHER.
IF YOU BEGIN TO REMOVE SOME OF THESE AND INTERPOSE YOURSELF OR
DOMESTIC ANIMAL, YOU MAY OFTEN FIND THAT THE OBVIOUSLY THE
SUSEPTIBILITY TO DISEASE INCREASES.
IN ESSENCE YOU'VE REMOVE A LOT OF THE BUFFERING POWER AND IN
FACT THERE WAS ANOLE RUSSIAN IDEA THAT THEY USEDDED TO DO IN
PRACTICE CALLED ZOAPPROVE LAXIS SO THAT IN AREA LIKE RIFT
VALLEY FEVER, YOU WOULD MOVE THE ANIMALS FIRST BEFORE THE
PEOPLE.
AND PEOPLE DO THIS WITH THEIR SUMMER HOME, TO TO ASOY GETTING
FLEES THEY BRING THRR DOGS IN FIRST.
SO IT'S AN INTERESTING STORY BUT THE LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY MEANS
THE LOSS OF THIS BUFFERING CAPACITY.
>> TAKE A LAST QUESTION FROM JILL.
>> JUST ALONG SIMILAR LINES ACTUALLY A LOT OF WHAT YOU DISCUSS
TODAY AND A LOT OF WHAT WE ARE HAS TO DO WITH INCREASED
EXPOSURE TO AGENTS AS A RESULT OF THE CLIMB AT CHANGE BUT
MUCH OF WHAT YOU TALK ABOUT WITH REGARD TO OUTBREAK HAS TO
DO WITH POPULATIONS THAT MAY WELL BE UNDERSTRESS AS WELL, FOR
CONDIGS OF DROUGHT AND FLOOD AND I GUESS THIS IS MORE OF A
COMMENT BUT I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THAT'S BEING TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT BUT WITH CLIMATE CHANGE, WITH ALTERATION IN OUR FOOD
SUPPLY AND OUR WATER SUPPLY, MAY WE FIND OURSELVES BEING MORE
OF POPULATIONS UNDER STRESS AND THEREFORE MORE SUSEPTIBLE TO
THE DISEASES THAT WE'RE BEING ECPOSED TO AS WELL.
>> WELL, THANK YOU I THINK IT'S A LEGITIMATE POINT AND ONE'S NOT
BEEN INVESTIGATED AS MUCH AS IT COULD BE.
THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO ARGUE THAT DENSE CITIES ARE A FORUM OF
INCREASE CERTAIN TIMES OF PATHOLOGY‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
IT'S CERTAINLY EASIER.
SOME YEARS AGO, PEOPLE LOOKED A CONDITION IN CHINA WHICH
OCCURSES IN AREA THAT HAVE LOW SELENIUM IN THE SOIL AND YOU
CAN ARE PRODUCE THIS IN INTERESTING WAY IN A MOUSE MODEL THAT
MELINDA BECK DID AT THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
ORVILLE AT USDA AND FIND THAT CAN YOU HAVE SIMILAR EFFECT AND
NOT ONLY THAT BUT THESE HOST EFFECT SEEM TO SELECT FOR MORE
VIRULENT PATH GENES.
SO THERE'S‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
SO WE'RE TRYING TO SKIM THE SURFACE OF WHAT IS REALLY, I AGREE
THESE ARE COMMECH ISSUES TO‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
EVERYONE IN THE WORLD WANTS TO LIVE THE WAY WE DO.
SOMEONE ASKED A QUESTION ABOUT THE AMISH.
SO I'LL ASK, ARE WE HAPPIER FOR IT NOW, FOR OUR VERY ENERGY
INTENSIVE AND EXPENNIVE LIFESTYLE.
‫﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓ ﷓‬
I DON'T KNOW.
WAS I HAPPIER BEFORE I HAD A BLACKBERRY OR NOT, I'M NOT SURE.
(LAUGHTER).
>> ARE THERE ANY OTHER QUESTION.
IF NOT, THANKS AGAIN FOR A WONDERFUL DISCUSSION.
SO BEFORE YOU LEAVE, PLEASE FILL THIS OUT AND WE REALLY ENJOYED
YOUR DISCUSSIONS TODAY.
(APPLAUSE).