TUG Presentation BART by F0VftI

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 36

									    Ohio Department of Transportation


     BART Presentation
   AASHTO Trns•port Users Group

18th TEA/TUG Conference and Workshop
          Daytona Beach, FL
          November 2 - 10, 2005

                                        1
                    What / Who is BART ?



                                           2
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      No, Wrong BART


                                           Don’t have a
                                           Cow Man !




                                                          3
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
              Bid Analysis Review Team

        The sharing of BART ideas and activities with
          other agencies, departments and friends.




                                                    4
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                 BART
                        Bid Analysis Review Team
             ODOT – Office of Estimating
             Jeff Hisem – Administrator
             Three person diverse group
                 •    Tim Pritchard
                 •    Michael Guckes
                 •    David Buhn




                                                   5
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Introduction

                                         “A Single Focused Mindset”
                                            can be like a …

                                                 One Legged Stool



                                                                 6
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                               Where does BART sit ?


            Seat - DSS               (Decision Support System)
                    The data & tools support and sustain the group’s
                     activities
            Legs - Activities
                    Bid history products
                    Collusion and Questionable activity detection
                    Market Analysis
            Surface beneath the stool
                    Activities exist upon an uneven & changing foundation.
                                                                          7
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                               Bid Analysis Review Team
                                                DSS
                                      connects to all activities




                                              Market
                                              Analysis



                                                       Uneven & Changing Ground
                                                        ODOT Environment

                                                                                  8
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                                     The Seat
                    DSS (Decision Support System) database
                 •         Necessary on-going support activities
                         1.        Data is checked, re-checked, then checked again
                                  i.     Examples of data verification
                                         a) Project coordinates
                                         b) Missing rejected contract bid tabs
                                         c) Changing field definitions, i.e. spec changes, vendor ids
                         2.        Update approved asphalt plant & aggregate pit info
                         3.        Vendor affiliate tracking
                                  i.     Pre-qualification
                                  ii.    Asphalt / Aggregate inspections (QC) and approval
                                  iii.   Use external sources i.e. ODNR, Associations, Contractors




                                                                                                        9
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                       1st   Leg
             Bid History Products
                 •    FHWA / PR45 Reports & FHWA Bridge Report
                 •    Bid History Catalog for CES and Estimator
                 •    Historical Bid Data for Estimating
                 •    Annual Report “Summary of Contracts Awarded”
                 •    Requests for Information (Internal & External)




                                                                       10
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                 FHWA / PR45 Reports
                    Two Quarterly Reports for the FHWA
                 •         Projects on the NHS
                 •         Firstly, a hardcopy report that provides information
                           and $’s bid from the three lowest bidders for each
                           project.

                 •         Secondly, a computerized Focus report that provides
                           1) $ split between pavement and bridge and 2) $
                           amounts associated with different concerned
                           commodities for each project.
                         1.       i.e. Asphalt, Excavation, Rein. Steel, Structural Concrete


                                                                                               11
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                              FHWA / Bridge Reports
             Annual Report for the FHWA
             Criteria for report:
                 •    Determine NHS bridges and Non-NHS bridges
                 •    Only New bridge decks or removed bridge decks
             Provide Info:
                 •    Type of bridge
                 •    Cost of bridge deck area (Sq Ft or Sq M)
                 •    No. of Spans
                 •    Special Conditions: i.e. locations, height, complexity,
                      etc.


                                                                                12
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Bid History Catalogs
             Catalogs for CES & Estimator
                 •    DSS HIREG created
                 •    Built using weighted averages or regression
                      estimates




                                                                    13
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Historical Bid Data
             Tool used by Estimators
             Select “Item of Work” and returns following
              attributes
                 •    Project Number
                 •    County Route & Section
                 •    Type
                 •    Quantity
                 •    Estimated Price
                 •    Awarded Bid
                 •    Low Bid
                 •    High Bid
                 •    Average Bid

                                                            14
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Historical Bid Data




                                                            15
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                  Information Requests
                    External
                 •         Contractors, OIG, AG, State Agencies, OTC
                 •         SAS, Excel Spreadsheets, Geomedia Maps
                 •         Quantities, Avg Pricing, Worktypes, Areas

                    Internal
                 •         Director, Construction, Accounting, Finance
                 •         Presentations, Meetings, Projections/Forecasts
                 •         Bundling, Asphalt Pricing, Aggregate Control, Market
                           Shares, Cost Indices

                                                                             16
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                         2nd   Leg
             Collusion & Questionable Activity Detection
                 •    Line Item Profiles (LIP’s)
                 •    80/20 Analysis
                 •    Asphalt Analysis




                                                            17
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Line Item Profiles
                    A Tool used to determine
                 •         Unbalanced Bids                     •   Sham Bids
                 •         Front- end Loading                  •   Inaccurate Estimates
                 •         Complementary Bidding

                    ODOT’s current LIP method
                 •         Plotting bid line items
                         1.       Any bidder who’s bid $ amount (of each line item) is => +/-
                                  1% of the total estimate of the project




                                                                                          18
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Line Item Profiles




                                                           19
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                           80/20 Analysis
                   Collusion Pre-Test: Where to look first
                   Technique:
                       •       Analysis by contract work-type
                                1.    Select items of work that have 80% of $ in
                                      work-type
                                2.    Remove as-per-plan, lump sum, and each
                                3.    Statistically standardize item price information
                                      (Price Change/Distribution Value)
                                4.    Compare different items of work
                                       (apples to oranges)


                                                                                         20
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
  Blending Price Movement with Bidding Behavior

              Compare the nature
               of the median price
               change by year.
              Red flag items with
               “too much” price
               change from year to
               year for a given price
               range.


                 Method not effective for items with “each”,
                 “lump sum” or other hard-to-measure units.
                                                               21
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                      Asphalt Analysis
             Track ownership changes from 2000 to present
                 •    Record mergers and acquisitions among paving firms
                 •    Changes in bidding behavior
                 •    Ownership of approved asphalt mfg. facilities
                 •    Ownership of approved aggregates sources


             Search for collusion or other questionable
              behavior
                 •    Follow Info Tech methodology


                                                                       22
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
S
F
Pits or DFs All
 stle Facilities In-Place
 stle Facility Changes
astle Pit Only Area Map
astle Pit and Facility Area Map
astle Facility Only Area Map



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                                           Present Day Vendor “A”
                                   Pits/DF’s and Asphalt Facilities


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                                                                                                                                              Pit and Asphalt Facility
                                                                                                                                              Pit Only
                                                                                                                                              Asphalt Facility Only
                                                                                                                                                                     23
                         Vendor “B”
                    2001-8/2004 Wins and Losses                                               W




                                                                               LL             W
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                                                                  L L   L      L W
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                                                                L         L W WLR W            WL
                                                              L                L               LW
                                                              W     L L        L LL
                                                    L      WL      W
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                                            L          W              L                  W
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                                L   L                                                      L
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                                    L L                            L
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                               L L      L L W
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                                                                    W     W       W         W
                                    W LW                     W
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                           L                      L
                            L                     W             W
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                                                         W    W      W
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                                                                                   W      Black – 2004
                                       R                               W
                                         LL                 W
                                        L W
                                                        WLL    L                          Green – 2003
                                        L
                                        W         L
                                      WW        WW
                                       L        W
                                                                                          Red – 2002
                                                                                          Blue - 2001
Shelly & Sands: 3                                                                                        24
            Vendor “B”
2001-8/2004 Wins with Number of Bidders                                                                                                 2




                                                                                                                                    3
                                                                                                            5           3
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                                                                                                        3 4                     2
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                                                                      5            5                    4 5
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                                                                                   34                     3
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                                                        3
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                              3
                                              2       2
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                      3
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                  2    3          2
                       2                                                                                                2       2
                                                                                                                                2
                                                                                                                                2 1
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                                                                                           1
                                                                                       2                2

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              3            3
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                                                                          2
                      4                                                            2
                                                                                                        1
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                                                                                                                    1               Black – 2004
                                                                                    1               1
                                                  2                            1
                                          2           2
                                                              1
                                                                  2           1
                                                                                        1 1
                                                                                           1
                                                                                                1           2                       Green – 2003
                                                                          2
                              2
                                      2                       2                                                                     Red – 2002
                          2                    12
                              2               2
                                                                                                                                    Blue - 2001
                                                                                                                                                   25
         Single Bid Asphalt Contracts                                                                                                          O-R
                                                                                                                                                  O



                                                             2001-8/2004                                                                      O




                                             G                                               G
                                       S-R       G

                                                                                                                                               JV
                                                                                                                      S&S




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                                                             S     S S                                    K                                       S&S
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                           J                     J
                               J                                                   O              S                   JV       S&S   S&S
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                                                                                                                                   S&S
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                                                                                                  S
                                                                                                              S                    S&S
                                                                                                                                   S&S S&S
B - contractor B                                                                        S
                                                                                        S                     S
                                                                                                                  S      S&S
                                                                                                                       S&S
                                                                                                                                 S&S

                                                                          S
G - contractor G                                     J
                                                                                                          S&S
                                                                                                                      S&S S&S
                                                                                                                           S&S S&S
J - contractor J                                                          S
                                                                              S
                                                                                                                             S&S
                                                                                                                                             Black – 2004
                                                                  S
K - contractor K                                                                       S
                                                                                                                           S

S - contractor S                                              S
                                                                                   S         S&S                  S
                                                                                                                                             Green – 2003
                                                                              O                                            S
                                                                  S
S&S - contractor SS                                                               S S                 S       S           S

JV - joint venture                                                    S                                   S
                                                                                                            S
                                                                                                            S
                                                                                                           SSS-R
                                                                                                                                             Red – 2002
                                                                  S               S S S
O - Other Vendors                                                                                     S
                                                                                                          S
                                                                                                                                             Blue - 2001
                                                                                            S-R
                                                                                             S
                                                                                             S                                                             26
[R indicates a rejected bid]
                                      3rd   Leg
             Market Analysis
                 •    ODOT Cost Index: “Basket of Goods” Approach
                 •    Asphalt Bundling Project
                 •    OTC Bid Analysis




                                                                    27
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                           Asphalt Project Bundling
                 Scenario: A single owner gains market control
                  of Aggregate and/or Asphalt in a specific area

                 Strategy: promote more than a single bid
                 •       Bundle (combine) similar Asphalt Projects in and
                         around the market controlled area
                         1.     Locate projects to bundle near competitive companies
                                asphalt facilities
                         2.     Select projects in areas with different bidders
                         3.     Cross boundaries i.e. district, county
                         4.     Increase size of project by $ value and/or quantity for
                                economies of scale


                                                                                          28
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
Example of Asphalt Bundling
                                                                                                       DEF                                                                               Group 2: 30 mi rad
                                                                                                                                                                                         Furthest Projects 27.80 mi apart
                                                                                                                                                                                         Effective rad 17 mi from midpoint
                                                                                                 G
                                                         Ha n s o n Ag g re g a te s M i d we s t, In c .
                                                                                                                         S
                                                                                                                                   G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group 6: 30 mi rad
                                                                                   PAU
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Furthest Projects 20.1 mi apart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Effective rad 22 mi from midpoint
                                                                                                                                                                                   PUT                                                                                   S

                                                                                       S                                                                                                                  G
                                                                                                                                                                                                       Pu tn a m
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HAN
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Na t' l



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Na t' l
                                                                     S



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Pre c Ag g

                                                                                 VAN                                                     Su e v e r
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                G
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Na t' l                             Group 4: 30 mi rad
                                                                                                        ALL/VAN SR 66/190/697 11.07
                                                                                                                      S                                                                                                                                                                                WYA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Furthest Projects 28.5 mi apart
                                                                                                                                    Su e v e r
                                                                                                                                                                                       ALL                                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                                                        2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    HAR US 68/SR 235 19.23/19.26                                                       K
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Effective rad 18.5 mi from midpoint
                                                                                                                      5
                                                                                                                                                                                         Na t' l                                                                              Du ff
                                                                                                                                                                                  S
                                                                                                                                                                    ALL SR 65/81/117 6.58                                                                            S

              Group 5: 30 mi rad                                                              VAN/ALL SR 116/SR 117

              Furthest Projects 22.5 mi apart
                                                                                              5                                                                                                                                                             2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S


                                                                               MER US 33 6.08
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          HAR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     HAR SR 31/67/117 0.00/0.00/1.58
              Effective rad 22 mi from midpoint
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2
                                                                                                                                                                    S                                                                                                                                                                                    S&S
                                                                                                                                                      Na t' l




                                                                     M5                                                              5 AUG
                                                                                                                                 Co n -Ag



                                                                             AUG SR 29 5.65
                                                                                                                                                                     Qu a l i ty
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        HAR SR 67 2.58                                                                                     M AR                Na t' l


                                                                   29 ER
                                                            MER SR S 9.15
                                                                S




                                                                                                                                      3
                                                                  AUG GRAND LAKE WEST BANK
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    M RW
                                                                                           AUG SR 219 7.64
                                                                          MER SR 219 13.28 AUG SR 29 3.87                                                                                          3
                                                                                                                                                                                       AUG SR 65 0.00       Du ff
                                                                                                                                                                                                   LOG SR 368 0.00 S        6                             S                                                                                                                                                         Ch e s te rv i l l e
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Cntl OH Asph


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            4
                                                                                                                                                                B




                                                                                                                             1
                                                                                                                        S                                                                                                                     LOG SR 47 20.35
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Os b o rn e

                                                                                                            AUG SR 119 0.00                                                                                                         LOG                                               UNI SR 47 7.57
               Group 1: 30 mi rad                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         S




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Ne e r' s

                                                                                                                                                           SHE                                                                                                       S
               Furthest Projects 7.5 mi apart
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LOG SR 347 0.00

               Effective rad 26 mi from midpoint                                                                                  1SR
                                                                                                                 SHE SR 66 6.44SHEB 29 17.21
                                                                                                                                                       SHE SR 29 15.52
                                                                                                                                                                            3                                                                                        LOG US 33 0.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             UNI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            UNI SR 4 13.08                      Na t' l

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Na t' l
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               S&S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DEL
                                                                                                                                                                            B
                                                                                                                                                                        M i Ri v
                                                     DAR SR 49 25.33                                                                                                          S                                                                                                                                                 S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          S


                                                                                                                                                                                                   3                                                                                                                                          4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     M a rb l e C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     CHP SR 559 7.35
                                                                     DAR                                                J
                                                                                                                                                                J
                                                                                                                                                                                       CHP US 36 0.00                           CHP                                                                                    DEL SR 750 0.00
                                                          DAR 571 12.18
                                                        DAR SRUS 36 13.28                                   Po e p p l e m a n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      J                                                                     Tu ffc o
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             K
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             S
                                                                                                                                                      M IA                                                                                                               CHP SR 29 31.37
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MM
                                                                 J
                                                                                                                                                                    MM
                                                                                                                                                                                   J                                                                                                          MAD CR 7 6.15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         S
                                                                                                                                     B
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  MAD SR 38 22.81                                                            S
                                                   DAR SR 121 5.64                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Na t' l
                                                   DAR SR 121 4.74                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           FRA    Sm i th -J o h n s o n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                S

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                CLA                                                                                                                                 S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  S S



                            Group 3: 30 mi rad
                                                                                                                         MM
                                                                                                                                      J
                                                                                                                                                                                MM
                                                                                                                                                                                              MM
                                                                                                                                                                                                              En o Ex
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Am e rn    J
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        M AD                                                                     S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  S&SK
                                                                                                                                                                                                   B                                                                                                                                          S&S                  K


                            Furthest Projects 32.75 mi apart                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         S
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        S




                            Effective rad 25.5 mi from midpoint
                                                                                                                                     M OT                               B


                                                                                                                                                                            J
                                                                                                                                                                            B
                                                                                                                                                       B


                                                                                                                                            J
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             PIC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            J


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            J

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      FAY                                                                                        S




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           29
                                  Ohio DOT Cost Index
             Primary Question:
                 •    How will inflation and market fluctuations affect future
                      construction costs?

             Develop an Index (FY01-FY05):
                 •    Used bid data in DSS for analysis to create Laspeyres
                      type index like Consumer Price Index
                 •    Selected largest expenditure items for each commodity
                         o   “Basket of Goods” Approach
                 •    Determined composite index for each commodity
                      “Basket”
                 •    Developed an overall ODOT composite cost index of all
                      the individual commodity indices
                                                                            30
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                       Ohio DOT Cost Index Graph
                     140
                     130
                                                                                         111.7                         123.6
       Index Value




                     120
                     110                                  103.0
                     100                                              105.9
                           100.0
                      90
                      80
                             FY2001                      FY2002      FY2003            FY2004                   FY2005
                                  Aggregate Base                              Asphalt Concrete
                                  Drainage                                    Earthw ork
                                  Maintenance of Traffic                      Portland Cement Concrete Pavement
                                  Structures including Maintenance            Composite ODOT Construction Cost Index



                                                                                                                               31
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
Ohio DOT Cost Index (Table)




                              32
                Ohio Turnpike Commission - OTC
             OTC:
                 •    The OTC separate from ODOT (similar
                      operations)
                 •    The Commission manages 241-mile toll road
                      spanning Northern Ohio

             Project:
                 •    Analyze each bid item within each OTC 3-lane
                      widening project
                 •    To include all projects, bids, and items

                                                                  33
BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
            (Cont’d)                  Ohio Turnpike Commission - OTC
                    BART:
                 •         Current work:
                         1.       Develop an item master of all OTC related items
                         2.       Align pertinent data for useful future analyses
                         3.       Download all OTC data into the DSS database

                 •         Future work:
                         1.       Line Item Profiles – Analysis of bidding patterns
                                  of projects
                         2.       Vendor Competition – Analysis of competitors
                                  who bid on projects or why bidders did not
                         3.       Also, analysis of vendor markets, market shares
                                  and price analysis

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BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                          The Surface…
                                      Uneven & Changing Ground
                            Factors that influence BART activities
                         •        Today’s newspaper articles
                         •        Tomorrow’s newspaper articles
                         •        Collusion found in neighboring states
                         •        Perceived inflation increases
                         •        Inter-office collaborations
                                  o    Data availability
                                  o    Requests for information


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BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005
                                       Wrap Up
             Summary
                     DSS Database necessary starting point
                     Multiple types of activities for sustainable
                      team
                         1.   Collusion and Questionable Activity Detection
                         2.   Bid History Products
                         3.   Market Analysis

             Discussion



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BART- TEA/TUG Daytona November 2005

								
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