Preliminary analysis of draft US India Nuclear Co operation Agreement by lLx9QHg


									                                                                                  The University of Tokyo Global COE Program

                                    Nuclear Education and Research Initiative
Study of the Impact of U.S.-India Nuclear Co-operation on the Global Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime
       Tsukasa YAMAMURA, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA)
                         Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo
                                                                                      2. Chronology of the U.S.-India Nuclear
 1. Introduction                                                                      Co-operation
 It is understandable that the announcement of US-India nuclear deal on July
 2005 has caused a lot of repercussion in light of the history of India’s isolation   July 2005: Joint Statement between President Bush
 from global nuclear trade since its nuclear test in 1974. Critics argue that US-     and Prime Minister Singh
 India nuclear deal undermines the current NPT regime, the premise of which           -Agreed with full civil nuclear energy co-operation
 is the co-operation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy only with the
 states which have abandoned the pursuit of nuclear weapons.                          March 2006: India’s separation plan was agreed
 Supporters of the deal argue, however, that co-operation with India is
                                                                                      December 2006: President Bush signed “Henry Hyde
 justifiable from the viewpoint of nuclear non-proliferation as well in the sense
 that it might have advantage of bringing India into a broader nuclear regime         Act” into law
 including nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament.                         July 2007: Negotiation of bilateral nuclear agreement
 The point is how to ensure compatibility between nuclear non-proliferation and
 nuclear co-operation with India. In other words, on what conditions will US-
                                                                                      was concluded
 India nuclear deal be justified from nuclear non-proliferation perspective?
                                                                                      5. Nuclear non-proliferation regime and India
 3. Documents to be analyzed
 (1)   Draft U.S.-India Nuclear Co-operation Agreement (comparison with                                                           Broader Nuclear Regime
       the agreements between US and other states)
 (2)   India-specific safeguards agreement with IAEA (to be concluded)                                                                                Current NPT regime                             DPRK
 (3)   Record of the discussion within the U.S. Congress                                                                                 NWS                                       NNWS
 (4)   Bilateral co-operation agreements between India and other states,                             ?                          (Nuclear Weapon States)                  (Non-Nuclear Weapon States)
       (if they are made publicly available)                                                                                           France               UK
                                                                                                                         (4)                                                                      Japan
 4. Preliminary analysis of draft US-India Nuclear
 Co-operation Agreement
                                                                                                                          (1)       US (3)                             Other European

 Provisions of this Agreement deviate from the provisions in other bilateral               India                         (4)
                                                                                                                                Model for the bilateral cooperation
                                                                                                                                with other countries ?
                                                                                                                                                                                               Other NAM
                                                                                                                                   Russia               China                    Iran
 agreements in several respects. Following might be possible contentious
 issues.                                                                                                           (
                                                                                                     India-specific 2)                                                                      Others
  Ambiguity on the termination of co-operation and the right of return in the                       safeguards                                    Voluntary Offer
    event of nuclear test by India (Compatibility with Article 123 of the US                                                                       Safeguards Agreement          Comprehensive Safeguards
                                                                                                                                                   with NWS                      Agreement with NNWS
    Atomic Energy Act)
  US commitment of assurance of nuclear fuel supply (Is the US still
    committed to assurance of nuclear fuel supply even if India conducts
    nuclear test?)                                                                           Pakistan                                                                 IAEA
  Programmatic consent to reprocessing and alteration in form or content of
                                                                                               Consensus is required to
    nuclear material                                                                           exempt India from NSG
  Transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and sensitive nuclear facilities                   Guideline                          NSG               PP Convention       UNSC1540        CTBT          FMCT

                                                                                                                                Various supplementary measures which support NPT regime

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