Causation and explanation in the social science

							Causation and explanation in the social science
Causality is the relationship between an event (the cause) and a second event (the
effect), where the second event is a consequence of the first

X caused Y

         permits to:          - Explain events
                              - Predict
                              - Take actions in order to modify the future


Three questions connected to the issue of causality:

         1. Psychological and Linguistic
                   What do we mean with causality?

         2. Ontological
                   What is causality?

         3. Epistemological
                   How do we discover when causality is operative?
                                                                                     1
Causation and explanation in the social science



    Four approaches to causality:


    1. Neo Humean
            Constant association of causes and effects

    2. Counterfactual
            No effect if the cause is absent in the most similar world

    3. Experimental
             An effect after the cause is manipulated

    4. Mechanism
           Activities and processes linking causes and effects




                                                                         2
Causation and explanation in the social science



    Eg. Democratic peace theory

             http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/DP.BACKSID
             E.V.16.JPG

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Pfafrich/De
              mocratic_peace_theory

              http://www.stanford.edu/~tomz/working/Tom
              zWeeks-2010-09.pdf




                                                              3
Causation and explanation in the social science




                                                  4
Causation and explanation in the social science




                                                  5
Causation and explanation in the social science



           Counterfactuals


            http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_pr
            esidential_election,_2000

             http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_pr
             esidential_election,_2000_(detail)

              http://arts.bev.net/roperldavid/politics/fl2000.
              htm

              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Butterfly_Vot
              ers_View.jpg




                                                                 6
Causation and explanation in the social science



    Psychological and linguistic analysis


         •1700: cause as a “hook” tying effect to cause

         •Hume: Contiguity (time and place) and Precedence




       Causation = Association

       ... B. Russel; K. Pearson                          More than association:
                                                          lawlike statement;
                                                          manipulability


                                                                                   7
Causation and explanation in the social science



          Ontological questions

                 •What are these “things” – causes
                 and effects – linked by causation?

                 •The nature of causal relationship

                 •Is it deterministic or probabilistic?




                                      Epistemological questions

                                      How can we figure out that X really
                                      cause Y?

                                      How to rule out all the possible
                                      alternative explanations?

                                                                            8
Causation and explanation in the social science




         Humean approach to causation

         Sufficiency

         Necessity


         INUS:        A cause is an INSUFFICIENT but NECESSARY part of a condition
                      which is itself UNNECESSARY but SUFFICIENT for the effect

         Lessons 1, 2, 3

         Shortcomings 1, 2, 3




                                                                                     9
Causation and explanation in the social science




       Counterfactual approach

       a.           If X were to occur, then Y would occur
       b.           If X were not to occur, then Y would not occur either

       Pros:
       -Specific causes not universal association
       - Efficacy of the cause

       Cons:
       -How can you evaluate the truth of the couterfactual statement?
       (the closest possible world)
         http://www.socpol.unimi.it/corsi/compol/mat
         erials/Palm%20beach.pdf


       -Observational simmetry
       - Common cause
                                                                            10
Causation and explanation in the social science


 Experimental approach

 An Agent is resposible for the manipulation

 Pros
 Avoids most of the methodological problems

 Cons
 Crashes against some ontological problems

 Pre-emption
                                    The mechanism approach
 Explanation
                                    Definition

                                    Avoids some of the problems of the experimental approach

                                    Generalization?

                                                                                           11
Causation and explanation in the social science




                                                  12
 Causation
     and
explanation
in the social
   science




                13