The Co-Evolution of Technologies and Markets
Document Sample


Stuck!
Professor Rebecca Henderson &
Professor Nelson Repenning
MIT Sloan School of Management
Rhenderson@mit.edu & Nelsonr@mit.edu
Or
Why it can seem to be so hard
to get anything done
&
What can be done about it
Or
Why you’re sometimes
tempted to think the people
who work for you are lazy
&
Why they don’t think so much
of you, either
Outline
Why we get stuck:
An introduction to the dynamics of overload &
the dangers of firefighting
Why we stay stuck:
The obvious solutions often make things
worse
What can be done:
Knowing one’s capacity
Killing project #26
Facing worse before better
Is This Your Project Pipeline?
Are these your delivery dates?
Scheduled
delivery
date
Actual delivery date
Does this look familiar?
• 79% apparently complete by original deadline
• 2 major unplanned iterations requiring redesign
• Actual duration: 208% of schedule
Construction Project
Project A Actual
Labor Hours
Plan
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Month
• Cumulative Labor Hours: 403% of plan
What’s going on?
Overload at PreQuip
Resources
Active Projects Implied Development Resource
Required for Months to Allocation (months)
(formal development Completion Completion
projects by number) (months) (desired)
This year Next year Year after that
1 54 8 40 14 0
2 123 24 38 62 23
3 86 12 50 36 0
4 286 20 92 172 22
5 24 4 24 0 0
.
.
.
26 352 36 48 150 120
27 75 9 62 13 0
28 215 30 40 80 95
29 153 18 60 93 0
30 29 3 29 0 0
All Other Support Activity –– –– 430 430 430
(customer support, troubleshooting)
Total Development Requirements –– –– 2783 2956 2178
Available Resources (months) –– –– 960 960 960
Rate of Utilization (percent) –– –– 289.9 307.9 226.9
Overcommitment destroys
productivity
Average
100%
Value-Added
Time on 80%
Engineering
Tasks 60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6
Number of Projects per
Engineer
And shifts attention away from
early stage work
Phases
Knowledge Concept Basic Prototype Pilot Manufacturing
Acquisition Investigation Design Building Production Ramp-Up
High
ABILITY
TO INFLUENCE
OUTCOME
Index of
Attention and
Influence
ACTUAL
MANAGEMENT
ACTIVITY
PROFILE
Low
And from:
Building long term capability
Doing strategy
Making decisions
We call this
“The Capability Trap”
Capability
Investments in Capability
Capability Erosion
+
DELAY
+
Time Spent +
Working Actual
Performance
+ B1
Time Spent on
Implementation and
Improvement Work Harder -
+ Performance
Pressure to Gap
Do Work +
+
B2 Desired
Performance
Work Smarter
Pressure to +
Improve
Capability
Capability
Investments in Capability
Capability Erosion
+ R1
DELAY
Reinvestment
+
Time Spent +
Working Actual
Performance
+ B1
Time Spent on
Implementation and
Improvement Work Harder -
- Performance
+
Pressure to Gap
Do Work +
+
B2 Desired
Performance
Work Smarter
Pressure to +
Improve
Capability
The Capability Trap in
Manufacturing
Machine Yield
Investments in
Yield
“In the minds of the Improvement
[operations team leaders] they
+ R1
had to hit their pack counts. Virtuous or
This meant if you were having a
Vicious?
bad day and your yield had - Time Spent +
Running the + Process
Net
fallen ... you had to run like Line
Throughtput
crazy to hit your target. You Time Spent on
Improvement and
B3
+
B1
could say “you are making 20% Preventive
Maintenance Shortcuts
garbage, stop the line and fix
Work Harder
- -
+
the problem”, and they would
Manufacturing
Pressure to Meet Throughput Gap
Throughput
say, “I can’t hit my pack count Obj ectives + +
without running like crazy.”
They could never get ahead of B2
Desired Net
the game.” Work Smarter
Process
Throughput
-- improvement consultant +
Pressure to
Improve Yield
Confidential, please do not cite or quote without author’s permission.
The Capability Trap in Product
Development
An engineer might not take
Designs on
the Bookshelf
the time to document her
Designs Added to
the Bookshelf
steps or put the results of a + R1
simulation on the bookshelf
and because of that she Virtuous or
Vicious?
saved engineering time and did +
her project more efficiently. - Time Spent on +
Development
But in the long run it
Design Activ ities Process
Throughput
prevented us from being able Time Spent on B3 + B1
to deploy the reusability Documenting
Designs
concepts that we were looking
Shortcuts W ork Harder -
-
for.
+ Development
Pressure to Meet Process
Deliver New Throughtput Gap
--chief engineer Products +
+
B2
Desired
Development
W ork Smarter Process Throughput
+
Pressure to
Document Design
W ork
Confidential, please do not cite or quote without author’s permission.
In general…
“I knew I was in trouble when I had to
give hourly updates….”
Declining
Performance
Overload No time
for up front
work
We have to
spend a ton The stuff we
of time bring to
fixing it… market is…
Declining
Performance
The people
Overload who work
for us are
lazy
We need
more
controls
Declining
Performance
There’s no
Overload time to do
strategy
We can’t
make
decisions
Declining
Performance
Overload No time
for up front
work
We have to
spend a ton The stuff we
of time bring to
fixing it… market is…
What can be done?
Recognize you have a problem
There are two theories. One says, "there’s
a problem let’s fix it." The other says "we
have a problem, someone is screwing up,
let’s go beat them up." To make
improvement we could no longer embrace
the second theory, we had to use the first.
Kill project 26!
Why is killing project #26 so
hard? (Part 1)
It’s a “good” project!
Good managers can meet stretch goals
(and I’m a good manager)
Making difficult decisions takes
time & energy
It’s very hard to kill projects
without a strategy
Why is killing project #26 so
hard? (Part 2)
Killing project 26 will give us very serious
problems right now…
“Worse before better”
Performance
Time
Effort
Time Spent Improving
Time Spent Working
Actual Performance
Time
* =
Time
Effort
Time Spent Improving
Time Spent Working
Time
* =
So, all you need to do is:
Measure capacity & track resources
Balance long and short term effort
Avoid tipping into firefighting
Develop a strategy & the ability to act
Learn to kill project 26
Face worse before better
Develop the ability to have “high conflict, high
respect” decisions
What happens on Monday
morning?
Two case studies
Medtronics
Kirkham Instruments
Some Models of Change
The Vision Model (aka, the Field of
Dreams model)
Change happens by giving people new ideas
The Document Model
Change happens by writing those new ideas
down
The “My Way or the Highway” Model
Change happens by telling people to use the
new ideas, watching them closely, and
penalizing those that don’t
All of these are probably necessary,
but none are sufficient
Organizational change efforts don’t produce
change unless somebody in the organization
actually does something differently
Doing things differently is tough and does not
come naturally
Successful change requires:
Understanding how the current situation emerged
Identifying how your behavior (inadvertently)
contributed to the current challenges
Taking a disciplined approach to changing (your own)
bad habits
“We Should”
-things that others need
to do to allow your new
behaviors
“I Will”
- new things you will do
- old things you will stop doing
Good luck!
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