Project Concept Note by R4ESKfSG

VIEWS: 13 PAGES: 81

									                                                                       Final (March 28, 2007)

                                        Document of
                                       The World Bank

                                 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

                                                                         Report No: 47427-ET




                            PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

                                            ON A

                     PROPOSED NILE BASIN TRUST FUND GRANT

                         IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 3.48 MILLION

                                           TO THE

                    EASTERN NILE TECHNICAL REGIONAL OFFICE

                                           FOR A

EASTERN NILE FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PROJECT - PHASE 1
                             (FPEW I)




                                       March 28, 2007




This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the
performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World
Bank authorization.
                                                                       Final (March 28, 2007)


                  EASTERN NILE TECHNICAL REGIONAL OFFICE

   EASTERN NILE FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PROJECT -
                          PHASE 1 (FPEW I)

                           PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT

                                             AFRICA

                                             AFTNL

Date: March 28, 2007                            Team Leader: E.V. Jagannathan
Country Director: Mark D. Tomlinson             Sectors: Flood Protection (WD), General
(Regional); Ishac Diwan (Ethiopia, Sudan);      water, sanitation and flood protection sector
Emmanuel Mbi (Egypt)                            (WZ)
Sector Manager/Director: Ashok                  Themes: Natural Disaster Management (52);
Subramanian//Michel Wormser                     Water Resource Management (85)
Project ID: P103518                             Environmental Category: C. No safeguards
Lending Instrument: NBTF (RE)                   reporting instruments required for the project.

                                       Project Financing Data
[ ] Loan [ ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Guarantee             [X] Other: NBTF: Recipient Executed

For Loans/Credits/Others: NBTF (RE)
Total NBTF financing (US$m.): 3.48
Proposed terms:
                                  Financing Plan (US$m)
                Source                        Local              Foreign             Total
BORROWER/RECIPIENT (ENTRO)                       0.20                0.00              0.20
NBTF (RE)                                        0.00                3.48              3.48
Others (Governments of Egypt, Ethiopia           0.40                0.00              0.40
and Sudan)
Total:                                           0.60                3.48               4.08

Borrower:
Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
P. O. Box 27173-1000
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 6461130/6461132 Fax: +251 11 6459407 Email: entro@nilebasin.org

Responsible Agency:
Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
P. O. Box 27173-1000
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Tel: +251 11 6461130/6461132        Fax: +251 11 6459407, Email: entro@nilebasin.org
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)



                          Estimated disbursements (Bank FY/US$m)
FY                FY07               FY08              FY09                          FY10
Annual              0.1                0.85              1.35                         1.18
Cumulative          0.1                0.95              2.30                         3.48


Project implementation period: Start May 1, 2007 End: June 30, 2010
Expected effectiveness date: May 31, 2007
Expected closing date: June 30, 2010


Does the project depart from the CAS in content or other significant respects?
                                                                                    [ ]Yes [X] No
Ref. PAD A.3
Does the project require any exceptions from Bank policies? Ref. PAD C.6            [ ]Yes [X] No
Have these been approved by Bank management?                                         [ ]Yes [ ] No
Is approval for any policy exception sought from the Board?                          [ ]Yes [ ] No
Does the project include any critical risks rated “substantial” or “high”? Ref.
                                                                                    [ X]Yes [ ] No
PAD C.5
Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation?
                                                                                    [X]Yes [ ] No
Ref. PAD D.1-6

Project development objective Ref. PAD B.2, Technical Annex 3

The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to strengthen
the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood forecasting, mitigation and management,
promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN countries to
subsequent implementation of the subsequent phases of FPEW projects

Project description [one-sentence summary of each component] Ref. PAD B.3.a, Technical
Annex 4:
It comprises three key components, namely, (i) regional coordination, (ii) pilot flood
preparedness and emergency response, and (iii) flood forecasting warning and communication
system. The regional coordination component will put in place an institutional mechanism for
establishing intercountry coordination. The pilot flood preparedness and emergency response
component will strengthen flood preparedness and flood mitigation planning at national and
local levels through flood-risk mapping; assessment of information needs by the community for
effective response; and facilitate improved flood mitigation plans and mechanisms aimed at
protecting property and assets. The flood forecasting warning and communication system
component is aimed at improving flood forecasting institutions and developing a detailed design
for EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system.
                                                                    Final (March 28, 2007)



Which safeguard policies are triggered, if any? Ref. PAD D.6

The project does not trigger any safeguard policies.

Significant, non-standard conditions, if any, for: Ref. PAD C.6

Grant Signing conditions:

•   Actions on Positioning of key staff in RFCU: Shortlist of candidates completed.
•   Flood Risk Mapping Consultancies: ENTRO will issue the expression of interest and
    prepare the draft RFP.
•   A letter of commitment from the Eastern Nile Countries would be obtained by ENTRO and
    ENTRO will send it to the Bank.
                                                                Final (March 28, 2007)

                          CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

                     (Exchange Rate Effective March 15, 2007)

                         Currency Unit = Birr
                                1 US$    8.8427

                             FISCAL YEAR: FY 2008
                          July 1, 2007 -  June 30, 2008

                      ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CAS      Country Assistance Strategy
CDO      Civil Defense Organization
DPPC     Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Committee
EIA      Environment Impact Assessment
EMF      Environment Management Framework
EN       Eastern Nile
ENCOM    Eastern Nile Council of Ministers
ENSAP    Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
ENSAPT   Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program Team
ENTRO    Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
ESMF     Environment and Social Management Framework
FAD      Finance and Administration
FPEW     Flood Preparedness and Early Warning
FPEW     Flood Preparedness and Early Warning
HAD      High Aswan Dam
IC       Individual Consultant
IDA      International Development Association
IFR      Interim Un-audited Financial Report
JMP      Joint Multi-purpose Program
M&E      Monitoring and Evaluation
MOIWR    Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources
MOWR     Ministry of Water Resources
NBI      Nile Basin Initiative
NBTF     Nile Basin Trust Fund
NCB      National Competitive Bidding
NFC      National Flood Coordinator
NFPIs    National Focal Point Institutions
NIs      National Institutions
NRI      Nile River Institute
PAD      Project Appraisal Document
QCBS     Quality-cum-Cost Based Selection
RFC      Regional Flood Coordinator
RFCU     Regional Flood Coordination Unit
RFCU     Regional Flood Coordination Unit
                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)

RPF   Resettlement Policy Framework
RWG   Regional Working Group
RWG   Regional Working Group
SSS   Single Source Selection



                     Vice President:   Hartwig, Schafer (AFR); Daniela Gressani
                                       (MENA)
                   Country Director:   Mark D. Tomlinson (Regional); Ishac
                                       Diwan (Ethiopia, Sudan); Emmanuel Mbi
                                       (Egypt)
                   Country Manager
                    Sector Manager:    Ashok K. Subramanian (AFTNL)
                  Task Team Leader:    E. V. Jagannathan (AFTNL)
                                                                                                                 Final (March 28, 2007)


                                AFRICA
      EASTERN NILE FLOOD PREPAREDNESS AND EARLY WARNING PROJECT
                            PHASE 1 (FPEW I)

                                                                 CONTENTS

                                                                                                                                               Page

A.        STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE ................................................................. 1
     1.      Multi-country and sector issues .......................................................................................... 1
     2.      Rationale for Bank involvement ......................................................................................... 2
     3.      Higher level objectives to which the project contributes .................................................... 2

B.        PROJECT DESCRIPTION ................................................................................................. 3
     1.      Lending instrument ............................................................................................................. 3
     2.      Project development objective and key indicators.............................................................. 3
     3.      Project components ............................................................................................................. 4
     4.      Lessons learned and reflected in the project design ............................................................ 7
     5.      Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection .............................................................. 8

C.        IMPLEMENTATION .......................................................................................................... 8
     1.      Partnership arrangements .................................................................................................... 8
     2.      Institutional and implementation arrangements .................................................................. 8
     3.      Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results .................................................................. 9
     4.      Sustainability....................................................................................................................... 9
     5.      Critical risks and possible controversial aspects ............................................................... 10
     6.      Grant conditions and implementation readiness ............................................................... 11

D.        APPRAISAL SUMMARY ................................................................................................. 11
     1.      Economic and financial analyses ...................................................................................... 11
     2.      Technical ........................................................................................................................... 12
     3.      Fiduciary ........................................................................................................................... 12
     4.      Social................................................................................................................................. 12
     5.      Environment ...................................................................................................................... 13
     6.      Safeguard policies ............................................................................................................. 13
                                                                                                  Final (March 28, 2007)

Annex 1: Country and Sector Background ........................................................................... 14
Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies.................. 20
Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring...................................................................... 22
Annex 4: Detailed Project Description ................................................................................. 29
Annex 5: Project Costs.......................................................................................................... 39
Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements .............................................................................. 42
Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements .................................... 45
Annex 8: Procurement .......................................................................................................... 54
Annex 9: Project Preparation and Supervision ..................................................................... 63
Annex 10: Documents in the Project File ............................................................................. 65
Annex 11: Country at a Glance ............................................................................................. 66
Annex 12: Map ..................................................................................................................... 73
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)


                       A. STRATEGIC CONTEXT AND RATIONALE

1.     Multi-country and sector issues

The Eastern Nile (EN) comprises major river systems that originate in the Ethiopian highlands in
the east, flow to the west into Sudan where they join the Main Nile and finally flow through
Egypt to the Mediterranean Sea. Major river systems are the Abbay-Blue-Main Nile, Tekeze–
Setit-Atbara, and Baro-Akobo-Sobat. Inter and intra-annual variations of streamflows are high
with almost 80-85% of the rainfall occurring during the months June - September. Thus,
concomitant with negligible flood storage in the region (except for Aswan Dam) and low
capacity for national and regional flood management, the countries in the EN region are
vulnerable to floods. The extensive floodplains of Sudan and areas of Ethiopia are particularly at
risk. In the last decade, Sudan for example has suffered from major floods in 1994, 1996, 1998,
1999, and 2002. Potential climate changes may also impact the frequency and scale of future
flooding in the EN.

These major floods directly result in loss of livelihoods, particularly for the poor who frequently
inhabit the vulnerable floodplain areas, and can cause significant economic damages. Floods can
result in loss of crops and livestock, loss of property, displacement of communities, deterioration
of health conditions, and disruption of social life. For instance, the flood of 1999 in the EN
resulted in damages estimated at US$450 million. In Sudan, there are 197 communities along
the Blue and Main Niles that suffer flood damages on a regular basis. In Ethiopia as many as
600 people have died, more than 35,000 people have fled their homes, and more than 118,000
people were affected by the recent floods of 2006 in various ways. In Sudan, Sennar State, floods
had swept over several regions of the State. The number of houses destroyed by floods in Sudan
could reach over three thousand in addition to destruction of agricultural products along the Blue
Nile banks. Over the longer term, repeated economic disruptions associated with flooding
undermines national poverty alleviation efforts, disrupts sustained economic growth, and will
continue to be a source of risk that inhibits investment in economic activity.
Despite the impacts and transboundary nature of river flooding in the Eastern Nile, while there is
some flood warning activity in individual countries, there is no integrated or cooperative flood
warning system for the Eastern Nile Basin. Moreover, current flood mitigation efforts largely
focus on emergency response during major disasters. Floodplain management activities to
reduce the susceptibility to flooding are also limited at the national level and there are no
mechanisms to collaboratively identify or plan mitigation measures at the regional level.
Advance warning of imminent flood events to floodplain dwellers at the community level is
limited and often ineffective.

Improved capabilities to monitor and forecast rainfall and flow, particularly in the highland
areas, coupled with agreed mechanisms to disseminate information regionally during critical
periods could provide increased warning time downstream. This information, along with well-
planned flood preparedness programs in each country, can reduce flood-related damage, human
suffering, and loss of life in the region. Regional cooperation would greatly enhance the flood
management in all Eastern Nile countries and provide critical experience in joint river
management. This will lay a solid foundation for broader regional cooperation in integrated
water resources management.


                                                1
                                                                                  Final (March 28, 2007)



The Nile Basin Initiative

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), launched in February 1999, is a regional initiative of the riparian
states of the Nile1 and provides a framework to fight poverty and promote sustainable
development through improved integrated water resources management at the basin level. The
Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP), which includes Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan,
is an investment oriented sub-basin level program. Due to the devastating impacts of hydrologic
variability on the people and economies in the region, in March 2001, the Eastern Nile Council
of Ministers (ENCOM) requested that funding be sought to advance work in flood management.
The Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project (FPEW) is an agreed project within ENSAP
to take joint action on the problems of flood management in the EN. In October 2004, ENCOM
decided to fast-track the FPEW project to show tangible results of Nile Basin collaboration on
the ground. In 2006 it was decided to phase the implementation of FPEW, with the first phase –
FPEW I – focused on building the institutional capacity and developing critical baseline
information to enhance the readiness of EN countries to implement subsequent FPEW phases.
The proposed project (FPEW I) has evolved from national and regional consultations, and has
been prepared by national and regional teams. The project was endorsed by ENCOM in its 22nd
Meeting in Cairo on September 18, 2006.

2.      Rationale for Bank involvement

The Bank has been actively engaged in supporting the NBI since its inception as a means of
promoting regional stability and cooperation, and unlocking the development potential of the
Nile. The FPEW I project is particularly appropriate for Bank support due to the transboundary
nature of flooding, the potential to visibly demonstrate the benefits of regional cooperation, and
the potential to directly impact the poor. Given its involvement and support to the NBI, the Bank
is uniquely placed to assist the country in developing the project and its participation is expected
to leverage additional financing from the Government and other international donors for
subsequent phases of the FPEW project. The main rationale for Bank’s involvement is its ability
to manage the risks associated with financing the envisaged investments, as well as its access to
expertise to provide technical assistance in areas of flood management and in building critically
needed institutional capacity. The regional institution proposed under the project would serve as
an initial pilot for the planned regional joint multi-purpose institutional development under
identification under the NBI framework. Finally some of the project elements of this and
subsequent phases of the project are likely to be subsumed under country specific Bank
supported projects/programs.

3.      Higher level objectives to which the project contributes

Support to the NBI is an element of the interim country assistance strategies (ICAS) of Ethiopia
(May 2006) and Egypt (June 2001), and the country economic memorandum for Sudan (June
2003), as a means of addressing water resources and environmental issues, as well as reducing
poverty and mitigating conflict. Realizing gains from cooperation and regional integration is

1
  Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda. Eritrea
is an observer.


                                                     2
                                                                                 Final (March 28, 2007)

implicit in Bank’s development strategy for this region. Moreover, a key message of the Bank’s
water sector strategy2 is the importance of striking the appropriate balance between the
management of water resources and the development of water infrastructure. While the FPEW I
will focus on enhancing institutional/community planning of flood preparedness/management to
improve water management, it will initiate development of data base to assess potential flood
damages (through pilot flood risk mapping) and lay the groundwork for identifying possible
transboundary non-structural/small structural options for flood mitigation to be taken up under
FPEW-II.


                                    B. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

1.      Lending instrument

The project is financed through a grant of around US$3.48 million from the multi-donor Nile
Basin Trust Fund (NBTF) administered by the World Bank. In-kind contributions from the EN
countries/ENTRO are estimated to account for US$0.6 million.

2.      Project development objective and key indicators

The development objective of the overall FPEW project (FPEW I and its follow-on phase FPEW
II) is to reduce human suffering and damages, as well as capture the benefits of excess flood
waters resulting from flooding in the Eastern Nile. FPEW I will contribute directly to the
development objective of the FPEW. The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional
institutional basis and to strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood
forecasting, mitigation and management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance
the readiness of the EN countries to subsequent implementation of the subsequent phases of
FPEW projects . It will prepare the foundation for FPEW II implementation in terms of
institutional settings and data/information collections/sharing at community and national levels,
together with enhancing regional coordination and cooperation.


Key performance indicators for FPEW I will include:
 An established and operational regional flood coordination unit (RFCU)
 Pilot non-structural flood preparedness and emergency response activities implemented and
   assessed
 Piloting/establish detailed specifications for a regional flood forecast, warning, and
   communication system completed
 Database/mechanism for regional data sharing on floods operational
 Flood risk mapping in pilot areas prepared




2
 Water Resources Sector Strategy: Strategic Direction for World Bank Engagement, adopted by the World Bank
Board, February 25, 2003.


                                                     3
                                                                             Final (March 28, 2007)


3.      Project components

FPEW I is planned for 3 years of implementation and will overlap with the first two years of
FPEW II. It comprise three key components, namely, regional coordination (US$1.69 M), pilot
flood preparedness and emergency response ($1.26 M), and flood forecasting warning and
communication system (US$1.02 M).


a. Regional Coordination (US$ 1.69 M)
The immediate objective of this component is to put in place an institutional mechanism for
enhancing regional coordination for the flood project. The regional coordination is aimed at (i)
managing and implementing day to day current and future preparation/implementation phases of
FPEW; (ii) coordination of data collection and analysis from the EN countries, together with
other IDEN projects; (iii) functioning as a platform for experience sharing and capacity building;
(iv) liaising between donors, consultants and EN countries; (v) coordinating common activities
between the flood and other projects planned under integrated development of Eastern Nile
(IDEN); and (vi) managing FPEW II project preparation and implementation.
The outputs and activities under this component are:

    Establish a Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU) located in Khartoum (Sudan) as a
     sub-office of ENTRO. This requires an establishment agreement between ENTRO and the
     Government of Sudan similar to the one ENTRO has with the Government of Ethiopia with
     the privileges it enjoys as in Ethiopia. It is expected that for such agreements to be in place it
     may take around a year. Hence the RFCU will function from Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) as a
     transitional institution to be shifted to Sudan as soon as this agreement and other readiness
     arrangements are concluded. ENTRO has prepared a draft check list to assess the readiness
     of moving its sub-office to Sudan. ENTRO will finalize the check list and review the check
     list periodically in order to decide the date of moving to Sudan. ENTRO will inform
     ENSAPT/ENCOM accordingly. Adequate budget provision for this additionality has been
     provided for in the project cost under ENTRO administrative support cost. The RFCU will
     also assist in the strengthening of national flood warning centers through facilitation of the
     exchange and dissemination of vital flood-related information for use at national level as well
     as through the provision of a mechanism for sharing of knowledge and technical skills across
     regions.
    Conduct EN Annual Flood Forums to facilitate sharing of experiences among practitioners,
     planners, and scientists within the region and (where possible) from other river basins world-
     wide (such as Mekong River Basin).
    Establish a web-based database of flood related data.
    Information and experience exchange through workshops/ study visits.
    Carry out regional analysis and special studies (e.g. development of a robust regionally-based
     methodology for flood damage assessment; assessment of the effectiveness of existing and
     planned regulation works on flood mitigation and their implications for reservoir operation;
     determination of the incidence and characteristics of flash floods; development of a flood risk
     reduction strategy for flood-prone areas along the Baro-Akob-Sobat rivers; facilitated
     development of State and local flood response plans).




                                                   4
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)


b. Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response (US$1.26 M)
Identifying and mapping at-risk communities including the extent of flooding and the location of
high risk areas is a basic input to flood response planning as well as to analyses aimed at
identifying appropriate flood mitigation measures. It is also a major input to determining
community vulnerability. A priori knowledge of the likely extent and depth of expected flooding
as well as knowledge of the types of assets and activities located within the floodplain are
essential. Without such information and the plans to guide response in the event of a flood, the
full benefits of river height forecasts cannot be realized. Flood emergency response in the EN is
currently, by and large, reactive and ad hoc. This component will strengthen flood preparedness
and flood mitigation planning at national and local levels through:
 Flood-risk mapping.
 Assessment of information needs by the community for effective response.
 Facilitation of improved flood mitigation plans and mechanisms aimed at protecting property
    and assets.
 Development and evaluation of effectiveness (including beneficiary assessment) of
    community flood preparedness and response plans.

The pilot activities under community flood preparedness and response plans will include
facilitating and assisting selected communities in developing local and higher level flood
management and response plans, testing warning dissemination methodologies within selected
communities with regard to timeliness and delivery to those who need to know; and improving
community understanding and interpretation of warning information, etc. Further possible pilot
implementation activities will be added as more information is generated through on-going
project preparation on FPEW II. No structural measures for flood mitigation are envisaged as
part of FPEW I. This activity will involve a three step process., viz., (a) determining the
information needed by the community for effective response aimed at ensuring that flood
forecast and warning system development is driven both bottom up as well as top down and that
it delivers what is needed to enable an effective response ahead of expected flooding; (b)
facilitating development of community response plans – will involve the provision of technical
and other assistance to streamline local development of plans; and (c) evaluating effectiveness of
plans and process – will involve a process of participatory evaluation and address the
effectiveness of the activities in terms of flood damages avoided and community well-being.
The local governments (mahaliyas in Sudan and woredas in Ethiopia) will be closely linked to
piloting community flood preparedness and mitigation plans to ensure that appropriate linkages
at the ground level are developed for adoption of the plans at local level.

c. Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication Systems (US$ 1.02 M)
This component is aimed at improving flood forecasting institutions and developing a detailed
design for EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system. The communications
element of a flood forecast and warning system is essential to its operation and the reduction of
flood damages. Data has to be acquired and transmitted to the forecast center (and in some cases
to the at-risk communities as well) and the resulting forecast transmitted to the local area for
interpretation, value addition and disseminated to those who need to take action. The
effectiveness of the system depends not only on the accuracy of the raw data and forecast but
also on the lead time available to take action before the flood begins to affect the area. The
design will also be based on a rapid assessment of the current communication channels from the


                                                5
                                                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)

local to the regional/national levels (formal/informal) as informed by the preparation consultants
for FPEW II to target future efforts better. The design will also factor steps to enhance the
communication links between upstream and downstream users.
To strengthen national flood forecasting and warning capabilities this component will:
 Enhance current flood forecasting institution and support the establishment of a new flood
   forecasting institution of Ethiopia.
 Enhance data acquisition and communication equipment by refining flood forecast, warning
   and communication system requirements; identifying appropriate approaches, technologies
   and equipment; and piloting these at selected communities and/or locations.
 Prepare a detailed system design for a regional flood forecast, warning, and communication
   system and tender documentation for the EN.
 Enhance the communication links directly between upstream and downstream residents.
 Rapidly assess the current communication channel from the local to the regional/national
   levels (both formal and informal) to improve effectiveness of these channels.

Summary of the project components is given in Table 1.

                                 Table 1 Summary of Project Components for FPEW I
Components                    Outcomes Outputs                     Activities
                                          1. Regional Flood        1.1 Establish RFCU protocols and
                              flood-related information and data exchange among the EN countries and
                              Establishment of a regional flood coordination mechanism and enhanced




                                          Coordination Unit (RFCU)     operational guidelines
                                                                   1.2 Establish staff and equip the
                                                                       RFCU (including transition to
                                                                       Khartoum).
                                          2. Annual Flood Forums   2.1 Build professional network and
                                                                       share knowledge.
                                                                   2.2 Facilitate      participation      in
                                                                       international flood forums.
      Regional Coordination




                                          3. Flood Information     3.1 Design and agree on web-based
                              strengthened transboundary flood management




                                          Database                     database
                                                                   3.2 Collect, collate, process, quality
                                                                       assured data and load data in
                                                                       databases.
                                          4. Information and       4.1 Identify key knowledge gaps.
                                          Experience Exchange      4.2 Develop training modules and
                                                                       deliver workshops.
                                                                   4.3 Conduct         selected        study
                                                                   visits/workshops
                                          5. Regional Analysis and 5.1 Identify needs for special studies.
                                          Special Studies          5.2 Conduct special studies.




                                                                                                       6
                                                                                                                                                Final (March 28, 2007)


                                                                                                       1. Flood Risk Mapping 1.1 Prepare digital flood risk maps.

     and Emergency Response
     Pilot Flood Preparedness                                                                          commenced
                                                                                                       2. Community Flood        2.1 Determine information needed by




                                                    flood prone communities
                                                    Reduced vulnerability of
                                                                                                       Preparedness and Response     the community for effective
                                                                                                       Plans                         response.
                                                                                                                                 2.2 Facilitate development of
                                                                                                                                     community response plans
                                                                                                                                 2.3 Evaluate effectiveness of plans
                                                                                                                                     and process for the non-structural
                                                                                                                                     measures put in place (guidelines,
                                                                                                                                     wireless communication, etc.)
                                                                                                       2.3 Strengthen National   1.1 Refine flood forecast, warning and
     Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication




                                                                                                           Flood Forecast and        communication system
                                                    Detailed design of EN Flood Forecasting, Warning




                                                                                                           Warning Systems           requirements
                                                                                                                                 1.2 Identify appropriate approaches,
                                                                                                                                     technologies and equipment
                                                                                                                                 1.3 Procure and install for pilot
                                                                                                                                     communities (simple
                                                                                                                                     communication equipment, staff
                                                                                                                                     gauges, stilling wells, current
                         System




                                                                                                                                     meters etc.)
                                                    and Communication System




                                                                                                                                 1.4 Enhance current forecasting
                                                                                                                                     institutions and initiate new one in
                                                                                                                                     Ethiopia.
                                                                                                       2. Detailed Design of     2.1 Refine functional specifications
                                                                                                       Regional Flood Forecast,  from consultant’s outputs of project
                                                                                                       Warning and               preparation
                                                                                                       Communication System      2.2 Undertake necessary field work
                                                                                                                                 2.3 Prepare detailed design and tender
                                                                                                                                 documents

4.                           Lessons learned and reflected in the project design

Preliminary work completed have shown that (i) flow of data/ information across countries is
critical for developing a robust flood management strategy; and (ii) that for robust project design,
details built on local experimentation/knowledge are critical. Therefore, while the initial project
concept note for the FPEW did envision phasing of the project it did not specify the details. The
same has been proposed now. FPEW I will establish a regional flood coordination unit to
develop processes, procedures and protocols for exchange of flood related data/information
across the EN countries. This will lead to pilots for flood preparedness and emergency response
and will provide the initial institutional foundation and capacity to build confidence in the EN
region so that future projects can be implemented rapidly and effectively. Moreover, as FPEW is
the first regional project to be implemented by the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office
(ENTRO), a phased approach to implementation will strengthen the institutional foundation to
implement complex multi-country projects.



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                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)


5.     Alternatives considered and reasons for rejection

The Eastern Nile is broad in geographical scope and the nature of flooding varies across the
region. A larger bundled FPEW project was initially considered. Experience has shown that
institution development so critical for project implementation and sustainability takes
considerable time before attaining full functionality and hence needs to be initiated as early as
possible in project development phase. In addition, development of an information base based on
piloting and collection/analysis of basic data/information would enhance robustness in design
and implementation of future phases of the project. Hence, in an effort to quickly establish the
necessary institutional and informational foundations, a more focused and selective FPEW I
project is designed. FPEW I aims to support the accelerated and comprehensive implementation
of subsequent FPEW projects.


                                    C. IMPLEMENTATION


1.     Partnership arrangements

No formal partnerships with entities beyond NBI are envisioned. However, the European Union
which has contributed to the NBTF, has expressed its strong interest and support of this project.
Other partners who support the NBI have expressed interest in subsequent phases of the FPEW.

2.     Institutional and implementation arrangements

FPEW I will be executed by ENTRO. ENTRO will sign a Grant Agreement with the World
Bank and thus be responsible for the coordination of all activities, procurement of equipment and
consultants, and management of funds. ENTRO will have final responsibility for the quality of
outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s Nile Team in supervising the
activities and with the already identified National Flood Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan),
MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).

The Regional Flood Coordination Unit (refer section II C 1) will be established and equipped
with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office facilities, dedicated line for internet connection,
etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional Flood Coordinator (long term consultant also
driving the FPEW project) with support provided by two full time staff (also long term
consultants), who will be competitively hired from the region (a Hydrometeorologist and an
IT/GIS person). Functions such as finance, procurement, and administration, formal external
communication, protocols, and donor liaison, will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO
organization according to existing modes of operation.
ENTRO’s administrative support cost amounting to US$330,000 includes costs related to RFCU
office support (including the additional funding to shift the office to Khartoum) such as
electricity, telephones, internet, office space, fax, photocopying, as well as procurement,
financial and administrative support. This anticipated requirement for the project period is
approximately 8% of the project cost and appears reasonable.



                                                 8
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)

Activities at national level would be supported by the National Focal Point Institutions (NFPIs)
in the respective Ministries of Water Affairs and will be headed by the National Flood
Coordinator (which is part of the overall ENSAP arrangement). The NFPIs will suitably interact
with other national level institutions (through committees/working groups) to implement the
project at country levels. The data sharing/logistics commitment from each country would be
ensured through a formal commitment by each country. Countries will provide counterpart staff
to support project activities within their territories, through letters of commitment from each
country. ENTRO has agreed on a draft of the letter of commitment which will be sent to the
countries and signed off before grant signing (See Annex 6 for details).

3.     Monitoring and evaluation of outcomes/results

Overall monitoring and coordination of project activities will be performed by ENTRO.
Following the NBI-Secretariat’s introduction of result based planning for the NBI, ENTRO has
initiated the introduction of this system in the preparation of its work plans and reports. In order
to spearhead M&E activities, ENTRO has budgeted to engage a locally recruited M & E Officer
to come on board by the beginning of March 2007. The officer will support M&E activities for
all ENSAP/ENTRO projects including the FPEW I (initially, this specialist may provide
substantial input for FPEW I before other projects come on board for implementation). ENTRO
also plans to conduct a training workshop on M&E in 2007 for its officers and EN National
Project coordinators. ENTRO will consider strengthening its monitoring and evaluation
operations depending on how future projects unfold. The monitoring and evaluation framework
as included in the project proposal of FPEW I (Annex 3) will be the basis on which the M&E
framework will be developed by this M&E officer. In addition, the Bank will carry out the
normal review procedures for procurement and conduct regular supervision missions.
Supervision will also include the review of Interim Un-audited Financial Reports quarterly
reports provided by ENTRO, independent annual financial audits of the project and financial
statements of ENTRO. The Bank will also carry out a mid-term review.

4.     Sustainability

The Project represents a long-term investment in the future welfare of the populations of the
three Eastern Nile countries. The institutional development proposed under the project has a
strong commitment from the EN countries and ENTRO plans to get a specific letter of
commitment from each of the EN countries on counterpart support as well as long term
sustainability of the project recurrent activities and benefits. The institutional set-up will also
feed into the regional institution which may evolve to implement the Joint Multi-Purpose
program. The Project has also been designed to take into account long-term issues of capacity
building and empowerment at the community level for better flood preparedness as well as
emergency response during severe events so as to reduce flood losses and achieve Project
benefits. Similarly, well planned and funded specialized training programs for professional staff
at both the local, national and regional levels is essential to ensuring Project sustainability.




                                                 9
                                                                             Final (March 28, 2007)


5.     Critical risks and possible controversial aspects

Nile cooperation stalls. Although cooperation between the Eastern Nile countries has grown
significantly the past few years, the risk remains that dialogue will break down. The risk is
deemed modest. Commitment to the NBI is evident at the highest political levels and there is
tremendous pressure to successfully implement Nile investment projects as a tangible
demonstration of cooperation benefits.

Appropriate balance between national and regional needs not achieved. This project
requires balancing of regional and varied national needs and interests. Ameliorating floodplain
damages is critical in Sudan; upgrading its gauging system and improving water management
capabilities is important to Ethiopia; and, Egypt’s focus is on improving flood forecasting and
High Aswan Dam operations. Project success requires meeting these needs, while maintaining a
transboundary perspective and enhancing regional cooperation. This risk is considered modest,
as it can be addressed through consensus building efforts and careful project design.

EN countries unwilling to share information. Sharing of information is historically a sensitive
issue in the Nile Basin, particularly among Eastern Nile countries. This is the first Nile project
that requires sharing information on a real-time, operational basis. This risk is deemed
substantial. Sensitivity to the issue, and recognition that increasing levels of information
exchange will likely evolve as trust grows, will be critical. The project design, particularly of
the forecasting system, will need to build in mechanisms to ensure compatibility and flexibility
for evolving levels of information exchange over time. The FPEW I focus on early
establishment of mechanisms to share information and experience is a critical first step in this
direction. In the project proposal approved by ENCOM in its 22nd Meeting in September, 2006,
the commitment from the countries on data sharing is implicit; however, ENTRO proposes to
obtain a specific letter from the EN countries for their commitment to data sharing before signing
of the Grant. In implementation of later phases of FPEW this will later be enshrined into a
memorandum of understanding. The project will also be aligned with the Eastern Nile Planning
Model (ENPM) and the Nile Basin Decision Support System (NBDSS). A one system inventory
is already in place and under NBDSS an information sharing protocol is already under
development. Hopefully all these will lead to convergence on support to data sharing.

Implementation problem in conflict ridden areas. There is an issue of extending project
activities to areas such as Gambella (in Ethiopia) which has an access problem due to the
prevailing security situation. However the initial focus of activities of FPEW I is on institution
building/strengthening and hence this issue may not be critical in the initial stages. Extension of
activities to this area will of course be subjected to easing of the tension in this area. This will be
reviewed during project implementation.

Project financing for future FPEW activities.           For the current project (FPEW-I) full
commitment of resources has been made by the NBTF. However, funding for subsequent phases
still remains a challenge. Although a priority ENSAP ‘fast-track’ project, the FPEW is not a
typical infrastructure project. Each EN country has different financing challenges. Financing
will also be required for regional, as well as national, elements of the project. This risk for
subsequent phase of the project is considered substantial. Although full funding FPEW-II has



                                                  10
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)

not yet been secured, a combination of instruments at the World Bank is being pursued. New
instruments for regional projects, such as the Catalytic Fund, are being explored. Some national
components such as in Ethiopia will be spun-off as part of a Tana-Beles Integrated Water
Resources Development Project. In addition, bi-lateral donors (such as the Netherlands and the
UK) and other international financial institutions have expressed interest in the project.
However, as the financing issues are complex, they require special attention and are being taken
into consideration during the preparation process of subsequent phase. ENTRO has already
initiated actions to explore avenues to raise funds.

6.      Grant conditions and implementation readiness

Grant Signing conditions:

•    Actions on positioning of key staff in RFCU: Staffing RFCU at the earliest would be critical
     to project start-up operations. It was agreed that selections for the positions of the Regional
     Flood Coordinator; Hydrometeorologist, IT/GIS specialist would be completed by June 30,
     2007. However, ENTRO will complete shortlisting of candidates by the time of signing of
     the grant agreement.
•    Flood risk mapping consultancies: Given the criticality of this task, it was agreed that the
     procurement process (QCBS) will be expedited. ENTRO will issue the expression of interest
     and prepare the draft RFP before signing the Grant Agreement.
•    Letter of commitment: FPEW I is probably the first project under ENSAP advancing to
     implementation. The key aspect of the project is that the EN Countries and ENTRO will
     cooperatively undertake this project from its current phase of preparation to implementation
     and will ensure that the project objectives are duly met. While a memorandum of
     understanding outlining the roles and responsibilities of ENTRO and the Countries in project
     implementation and sustainability would be a clear demonstration of commitment; it was
     agreed that a letter of commitment outlining the general, institutional, financial and data
     sharing responsibilities of each country would be a good starting point for this project
     implementation, given the need to start the project early. A draft letter of such commitment
     has already been finalized. It was agreed that this letter would be obtained by ENTRO and
     ENTRO will send it to the Bank before signing the grant agreement.

                                   D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY

1.      Economic and financial analyses

EN basin suffers major floods causing average annual damages of about US$ 53 million for 1%
annual exceedence probability (AEP) flood event (100-year flood). Annual growth in damage
costs and increasing frequency and scale of major floods since 1990s implies significant loss of
life and economic damages in a ‘business as usual’ scenario and therefore, benefits for
coordinated flood prevention and early warning investments now can only be greater and
growing over time. The flood of 2006 has clearly demonstrated that the opportunity cost of not
planning ahead is very high. But for cost effective designing and implementation of flood
prevention and early warning interventions, regional/national/community level institutions are
critical but currently limited by lacking capacities and weak linkages. Proposed flood mitigation


                                                 11
                                                                        Final (March 28, 2007)

structures will minimize the future damages to the protected areas. Effective response,
preparedness, forecasting, warning and communication systems will help in exploiting the
existing as well as improved lead time to the benefit of flood prone communities. Setting-up
regional institutional mechanisms, pilot testing community level interventions, and strengthening
the flood database are planned in FPEW I. Anticipated most likely benefits from FPEW I for
FPEW II are cost-effective design and implementation of the activities, early realization of
project benefits, and quick up-scaling of the tested interventions for maximizing the benefits.
Realizing even any one of these benefits can be expected to far outweigh the proposed project
cost of US $ 4.08 million in FPEW I.

2.     Technical

The project will see the establishment of a Regional Flood Coordination Unit (RFCU), to be
located initially at ENTRO (Addis) and later moved to a newly created sub-office in Sudan
(Khartoum) aimed at enhancing regional cooperation in flood forecasting and management
matters while assisting in the strengthening of national flood warning centers. A check list for
assessment of readiness requirement to shift the office has been developed by ENTRO and these
requirements will be ensured before the formal move of the office. A number of flood
preparedness and emergency response activities (e.g. flood risk mapping, community flood
preparedness and response plans) will be piloted in cooperation with communities in target areas
recommended through the initial social baseline studies and as further refined by the FPEW II
project preparation consultants during project preparation. National and community based flood
forecast, warning and communication requirements will also be refined and a functional
specification along with detailed design and tender documents will be prepared for the
(regionally based) rainfall and river level measuring stations required to support national flood
forecasting activities.

3.     Fiduciary

The overall responsibility for the financial management of the Grant rests with ENTRO.
ENTRO is now managed by strong management team. The Finance and Administration
Department (FAD) has experienced and qualified staff to handle the financial management of the
Grant. ENTRO is in the process of updating its accounting system by installing new accounting
software-Microsoft Solomon and also revising its financial management manual. ENTRO will
open a Designated Account (DA) in US dollars at a commercial Bank on terms and conditions
that are satisfactory to the Bank. The DA will be managed by ENTRO. The annual audited
financial statements, along with the management letter, will be submitted to IDA not later than
six months after the end of the fiscal year. The external auditors are expected to issue a single
audit opinion on the consolidated financial statements of ENTRO, including financial
transactions of the Grant.

4.     Social

The project has carried out a detailed upstream social analysis on flood affected communities in
Sudan and Ethiopia. This analysis was done at project identification and provided an excellent
picture of flood impacts, community needs, and institutional gaps. This information was



                                               12
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)

operationalized to inform project processes such as selection criteria for target communities,
identification of vulnerable sub-groups, identification of community initiatives etc. The social
analysis has been central in restructuring project design to focus on flood management and
communication of information to communities. The process of conducting the social analysis
has been field based and involved intense consultations with communities and relevant
government and civil society bodies. The social analysis has brought out the need for investing
in organization of communities to respond to floods at all stages, i.e. before, during and after
floods. The analysis has informed project design with regard to identification of target groups
and suggested priority areas. The analysis highlighted gaps in the current arrangement where
community support is reactive, limited to collaborating on the physical responses to flood
protection and relatively independent of government efforts. Derived from this analysis, FPEW I
has a focus activity of investing in community training and capacity building to develop and
implement flood management plans. An area that has been brought into focus has been the need
to link government forecasting methods with community level low-tech methods. This will be
piloted in the FPEW I implementation. This up-front work has made it possible to draft the
FPEW I proposal with pilot flood preparedness and emergency response activities that will
inform the FPEW II project.

5.     Environment

FPEW I does not include any structural measures, except the installation of community
communication devices for flood warning, such as colored flood warning poles, etc. No civil
works activities will be supported through the project. No safeguards are being triggered and the
project is considered a category C. Overall this start up project (FPEW I ) aims at enhancing
capacities of the Eastern Nile countries in flood mitigation and management, promoting regional
cooperation, and enhancing the readiness of the EN countries for the subsequent FPEW II
implementation. The FPEW II (separate PAD) will include the support to community sub-
projects for which an ESMF will be prepared and small to medium structural measures to
prevent or mitigate urban flooding for which an EIA and EMF will be required. Specifically,
FPEW I will enhance forecasting capacities, flood mapping, and communication of this
information to communities. It will contribute to decreasing the likelihood of human suffering
and hazards during flood events. The current project, therefore, contributes to decreasing the
harmful impacts of floods on people, assets, and the environment, while maintaining positive
side effects of floods.

6.     Safeguard policies

The FPEW I project does not trigger any safeguards. A RPF and ESMF are being prepared for
phase 2 of the project to mitigate any impacts resulting from small scale physical interventions.




                                                13
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)


                         Annex 1: Country and Sector Background
           Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                        (FPEW I)

Ethiopia Country Background

Much of the Ethiopian landmass is part of the East African Rift Plateau. The general elevation in
the country ranges from 1,500 to 3,000 meters above sea level. Interspersed on the landscape are
higher mountain ranges and cratered cones, the highest of which, at 4,620 meters, is Ras Dashen
Terara northeast of Gonder. The northernmost part of the plateau is Ethiopia's historical core and
is the location of the ancient kingdom of Aksum.

Millennia of erosion have produced steep valleys, in places 1,600 meters deep and several
kilometers wide. In these valleys flow rapid streams unsuitable for navigation but possessing
potential as sources of hydroelectric power and water for irrigation.

The highlands that comprise much of the country are often referred to as the Ethiopian Plateau
and are usually thought of as divided into northern and southern parts. In a strict geographical
sense, however, they are bisected by the Great Rift Valley into the northwestern highlands and
the southeastern highlands, each with associated lowlands. The northwestern highlands are
considerably more extensive and rugged and are divided into northern and southern sections by
the valley of the Abbey (Blue Nile).

The Great Rift Valley forms a third physiographic region. This extensive fault system extends
from the Jordan Valley in the Middle East to the Zambezi River's Shire tributary in
Mozambique. The segment running through central Ethiopia is marked in the north by the
Denakil Depression and the coastal lowlands, or Afar Plain, as they are sometimes known. To
the south, at approximately 9° north latitude, the Great Rift Valley becomes a deep trench slicing
through the plateau from north to south, its width averaging fifty kilometers. The southern half of
the Ethiopian segment of the valley is dotted by a chain of relatively large lakes. Some hold fresh
water, fed by small streams from the east; others contain salts and minerals.

In contrast with the plateau's steep scarps along the Great Rift Valley and in the north, the
western and southwestern slopes descend somewhat less abruptly and are broken more often by
river exits. Between the plateau and the Sudanese border in the west lies a narrow strip of
sparsely populated tropical lowland that belongs politically to Ethiopia but whose inhabitants are
related to the people of Sudan. These tropical lowlands on the periphery of the plateau,
particularly in the far north and along the western frontier, contrast markedly with the upland
terrain.

All of Ethiopia's rivers originate in the highlands and flow outward in many directions through
deep gorges. Most notable of these is the Blue Nile (Abbay), the country's largest river. The Blue
Nile and its tributaries account for two-thirds of the Nile River flow below Khartoum.




                                                14
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)


Ethiopia Flood-Risk Assessment

Generally, rivers flow in deep and steep gorges, and riverine flooding is a phenomenon close to
the borders with neighboring countries, where the river bed is flat and drainage area large.
Exception to this is, obviously, the Awash, which, for most of its length, is ‘inland’. Flood-prone
areas have been identified by the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC), the predecessor
of the current Disaster Prevention and Rehabilitation Commission (DDPC) (Figure 1):

- Areas along the Wabe Shebele River from the village Imi to Mustahil
- Areas along the Baro River between the town of Gambella and the border town of Jikao
- Various areas along the Awash River (Teji area, Wenji, Amibara, Asaiyta)
- The area east of Lake Tana where rivers Ribb and Gumara flow into the lake
- The lower reaches of Omo River

In Ethiopia as many as 600 people have died, more than 35,000 people have fled their homes,
and more than 118,000 people were affected by the recent floods of 2006 in various ways.
Figure 1: Major flood prone areas in Ethiopia




                                                15
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)


Sudan Country Background

In the Sudan, quite a large number of localities are affected by riverine as well as flash floods.
The number of states affected by flood disasters varies from year to year, depending upon,
among others, magnitude of flood peaks, local rainfall and likelihood of combined effect, etc. In
general, however, the following eleven states face frequent (riverine) flooding disaster from time
to time: Kassala, White Nile, Blue Nile, Sennar, Khartoum, Gezira, River Nile, Northern, Unity,
Upper Nile, and Bahr Elgebel (Figure 2). In these states, the areas around the major rivers are the
ones that are affected most. If flash floods are considered, the number of states affected by the
flood disaster becomes higher. Riverine floods occur in the Nile river system and are a relatively
gradual phenomenon. Water levels rises are typically in the range of a few centimeters per day,
but during the flood faster rises have been observed. The water level could rise up to 1.0 meter
or more in a day.

Figure 2: Sudan – Flood-prone States (Riverine flood)




                                                16
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)


Sudan Flooding Extents and Areal Coverage

Over the last ten years, Sudan was subject to heavy floods in 1994, 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2002.
The impact of these floods was displacement of large communities, loss of agricultural crops,
damage to agricultural inputs such as seeds and pumps, deterioration of health situation with
increases in incidence of malaria and diarrhea diseases and disruption of social services such as
education and health. Historically, the country experienced severe floods in the years 1878,
1946, and 1988. The 1988 flood is still vivid in the memories of many people to the effect that
frequently flood levels are compared to the levels in that year to give a visual impression of the
severity of flooding.

Information on flood damages needs to be extracted from reports, news bulletins, journals, and
the like. The Nile Water Department, in collaboration with the Higher Council for Civil Defense,
produces annual flood reports in the Arabic language. The report can be obtained from the
Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources. The report presents flood damages at various
localities of the country, in addition to the hydrology of the floods and catchments. Other
sources of information include reports (such as the Situation Report by the UN-OCHA) by
NGOs and UN agencies, which make a significant contribution to the emergency relief efforts
during flood disasters. Some of the sources of such information are: the UN-Office for
Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA), the IFRC, Sudanese Red Crescent (SRC),
WFP, UNICEF, UNDP, WHO, etc.

The disaster in 1988 appeared to be the first of a series of high floods in recent times, which
struck the country in 1994, 1996, 1998 and 1999. Both riverine floods and flash floods in wadis
took a heavy toll. Floods resulted in loss of crops, cattle and agricultural machinery, loss of
houses and property, displacement of larger communities, deteriorating health conditions and
disruption of social life. Pressures on society force economic activities and settlements into flood
prone areas thereby increasing the devastating impact of heavy floods.

In August and September 1998 floods and heavy rains occurred in 18 of Sudan's 26 States. The
combined results of heavy rains in Ethiopia and southern Sudan resulted in the highest river
levels along parts of the Nile and tributaries since records began. Flooding affected about one
million people, of whom well over 100,000 were displaced. It resulted in a dramatic increase in
the incidence of malaria, diarrhea and other water-related diseases, primarily because of flooded
latrines, polluted wells, destroyed water systems and the presence of stagnant water. Production
in the irrigated agricultural sector was seriously reduced, up to 20 % of the country's date palm
trees were destroyed and there were large losses of livestock from disease and drowning. The
preliminary cost of recovery program was estimated to be US$230 million. Much of the
emergency response activities focused on provision of food, shelter, and health kits. The states
worst affected by the floods in 1998 are the White Nile, Kassala, Gadaref, Sennar, Khartoum and
North Kordofan.

The year 2001 affected worst the River Nile, Sennar, and Kassala. In the worst affected
provinces of Sennar State, i.e. in Sinja, Sinar, and Aldindir, reportedly 881 families were
displaced, 500 houses were destroyed completely and 743 houses were destroyed partially.
Worst affected areas were Um Baneen (Sinja), Gazair Agaleen (Al Soki, Aldindir) and Sinja



                                                17
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)

(Sinja). In addition, the deteriorating health situations often posed a big threat to the affected
population. In Sudan, in 2006, in Sennar State floods had swept over several regions of the State.
The number of houses destroyed by floods could reach over three thousand houses in addition to
destruction of agricultural products along the Blue Nile banks. Over the longer term, repeated
economic disruptions associated with flooding undermines national poverty alleviation efforts,
disrupts sustained economic growth, and will continue to be a source of risk that inhibits
investment in economic activity.
Egypt Country Background

The commissioning of the high Aswan dam (HAD) in 1968 has changed the flow regimes of the
Nile River in Egypt significantly. Obviously the regulation of the flow and thereby the damping
out of the fluctuations in the flow rates between the seasons is the main positive impact of the
dam. The seasonal fluctuations in the flow of the Nile mainly result from the seasonality of
rainfall over the Ethiopian plateau, where most of the summer flow originates. In addition to the
flow regulation effect of the dam, flood peaks have been put under control for the greater period
since the dam started operation.

The HAD has been provided with various spillways and openings, which can be operated to
release excess water that would threaten the safety of the dam. These spillways have been
designed to safely discharge the estimated probable maximum flood amounting 9000 to 11000
m3/s. In addition to the spilling facilities provided at the time the dam was constructed,
additional spillway has also been included, with which water can be spilled into the TOSHKA
depression. Existing capacity of the TOSHKA spillway is about 2900 m3/s, which is achieved at
a maximum head of 4 m; the spillway is more of a natural depression with a small hump at its
entrance thus acting like a weir. Thus, the discharge depends on the head above the hump. Plans
are underway to expand the spillway. The idea is to create a regulated channel right from the lake
into the depression so that the current maximum discharge would be attained with small increase
in reservoir levels. The water spilled through the TOSHKA spillway is not recoverable for any
beneficial use so far; the water will be released into the Toshka depression in the western desert.

The rate at which excess water can be discharged into the main river downstream has to be
controlled to minimize possible damages to the river morphology, reduce scouring around in
water structures, such as bridge piers and barrages, and also avoid inundations in small islands in
the river. Reports indicate that prior to the construction of the dam in the 1950’s and 1940’s;
flood damage mitigation was one of the main concerns as there existed minimal regulation of
flow. Measures employed included delineation of the floodplain, by defining what were known
as parallel ‘training lines’ 700 m from the bank on each side of the river, with a design discharge
of 11000 m3/s. Since the construction of the dam, however, a bank-full discharge of about 3000
m3/s is the expected maximum flow rate in the river downstream of the dam. With the TOSHKA
spillway in place, which comes in into use when the reservoir level exceeds 178m, there is less
concern on the flood damages downstream of the dam. However, since 1998, things seem to
follow a different course; excess water had to be spilled also downstream into the main river in
addition to what is spilled through the Toshka spillway every year between 1998 and 2001. The
spill downstream in 1998 caused inundation of small islands in the river, caused damages to the
riverbanks and some other structures such as bridge piers. Hence, though large-scale inundation



                                                18
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)

might not be expected, the main concern lies on the stability of such structures. The inundation
of the small inhabited islands is also a potential problem.

There are seven barrages downstream of the HAD; they are used mainly to regulate flow into the
canals. Some barrages are used also to generate hydropower. The barrages include Esna barrages
(old Esna at Km 166.65 from Aswan Dam (HAD), and new Km 167.85), Naga Hammadi
Barrage at Km 359.45, Assyut Barrage at Km 544.75, Damietta and Rosetta Barrages at Km
952.92, Zifta Barrage on Damietta branch at Km 1046.7, and Idfina Barrage on Rossetta branch
at Km 1159.0. Construction is ongoing for a new barrage at Naga Hammadi. It is clear that these
structures are very vital hydraulic structures of the water distribution system downstream of the
HAD. After the construction of the HAD, water that flows downstream is more sediment free
than compared to the conditions before the construction of the dam. This, when coupled with
excess discharge, as may occur during flood season, causes more scour around the barrages
(upstream and downstream). Observed scour depths range from about 2.5 m, which occurs for
some of the barrages at discharges of about 1390 m3/s to more than 10 m for higher discharges.
Scouring of the river bed can cause undermining of the barrage foundation and, in some cases,
my even adversely affect the stability of the structure.

Egypt Flood Damages

Before the construction of High Aswan Dam (HAD) in 1964 all barrage gates during the flood
season were completely opened with the barrage acting as a bridge section with constriction
scour only expected. In the rising period of the flood, scour occurred while in the falling period
filling of the scoured holes occurred by the flood sediment laden water. Therefore, it is thought
that the current observed scour holes are due to conditions after HAD where the water is almost
clear of sediment. These conditions are resulting from high velocity jets either from high head
difference on the barrage or high unit width discharge due to gate operation schemes.
The Nile Research Institute has compiled damage data downstream of the HAD due to scours
around bridge piers, which were caused by the floods. Some studies by the NRI indicate that the
reach between the Asuyt and Delta Barrages (known as reach 4) is the most adversely affected
by the increased flow in the river.




                                               19
                                                                      Final (March 28, 2007)


      Annex 2: Major Related Projects Financed by the Bank and/or other Agencies
        Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                      (FPEW I)

The World Bank has not undertaken any major flood projects within the EN countries. A series
of master plans/mapping exercises were undertaken in these countries which include flood
aspects as a component. These include:

   Ethiopia
    Aerial reconnaissance and mapping of approximate extents of flooding on the Gambella
      plains of the Baro-Akobo river system following a major flood in 1988
      (Selkhozpromexport, 1990);
    Rudimentary flood risk mapping for parts of Ethiopia based on anecdotal advice and
      limited topographic information (Bekele, 1997);
    Baro-Akobo River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (TAMS-ULG, 1997);
    Abbay River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (BCEOM, 1999);
    Tekeze River Basin Integrated Development Master Plan (NEDECO/DHV, 1998);
    Plans to reduce flooding at Bahir Dar through improved drainage (SZABD/Devecon Oy,
      1999 and MCE, c2001).

   Sudan
    Delineation of flood extents in Khartoum from satellite imagery of the 1998 and 2003
      floods (Remote Sensing Authority, date unknown);
    Photogrammetry, orthophotos and digital elevation model covering the Nile River Valley
      from upstream of the Merowe Dam site at Abu Hamed to downstream near Dongola
      (Dams Implementation Unit, date unknown but c2006);
    River channel cross-sections for the Blue Nile from downstream of Roseires and for the
      White Nile downstream of Jebel Aulia Dam (available through MIWR, c1998);
    Photogrammetric data for Khartoum State (MPPPU, in preparation);
    Aerial photography of parts of Greater Khartoum city (MPPPU, date unknown);
    Collection of anecdotal information about past flood and preparation of flood risk area
      maps as part of the ProVention program (Sudanese Red Crescent Society, in preparation);
    Hydrologic analysis undertaken as part of feasibility studies for Merowe Dam (Monenco,
      1992);
    Investigation of the flood mitigation effects of Merowe Dam (Hydroproject Institute,
      2001).
    Development of the Sudan flood warning system (Delft Hydraulics, 1994);

   Egypt
    Hydrologic analyses undertaken as part of a study on flood and drought control involving
      the operation of HAD (Delft Hydraulics, 2002);
    Hydrologic and hydraulic analysis and update of flood ‘management line’ maps
      downstream of HAD (NRI, in progress and Attia & el Saeed, 2001).




                                             20
                                                                     Final (March 28, 2007)

Small bodies of work undertaken by the World Bank and others within the EN and relevant to
this project include:
     Background reports on flood management in Sudan and Ethiopia (Bakhiet, 2004; Golla,
        2004);
     A detailed background report (with references) on flood management and related issues
        in Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia (Seid, 2004);
     Baseline social surveys in Sudan targeting selected communities along the Blue and Main
        Niles (Abdel Ati, 2005) and in Ethiopia concentrating on the area around Lake Tana
        (Teshome, 2005);
     Consolidation of the above two baseline social surveys and delivery of operational
        guidelines for social assessment work to be undertaken as part of the FPEW project
        (Bush, 2005);
     A preliminary rapid assessment of flood damages in Sudan (Cawood, 2005).




                                             21
                                                                            Final (March 28, 2007)


                           Annex 3: Results Framework and Monitoring
               Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                            (FPEW I)


PDO                        Outcome Indicators                    Use of Outcome Information

Establish a regional •         RFCU established and              YR1
coordination mechanism         resourced, pilot flood            a) Monitor establishment of the RFCU
and     strengthen      the    preparedness                      (office, staff, systems, etc) and
capacities of the EN                                             provide guidance as required.
countries     in     flood •   emergency response activities     YR2
mitigation             and     trialed and assessed,             a) 1st annual flood conference and
management,       promote •    detailed specification prepared   study visits/workshops should be in
regional cooperation, and      for a regional flood forecast,    advanced          planning         stage;
enhance the readiness of       warning and communication         b) Draft training program should be
the EN countries to            system.                           available;
subsequent (i.e. Phase II)                                       c) Monitor progress on pilot activities
implementation of the                                            &                             outcomes;
FPEW project.                                                    d) Special studies should be in
                                                                 progress;
                                                                 e) Confirm linkages to/with other
                                                                 projects are recognized.
                                                                 YR3
                                                                 a) Input should have been provided to
                                                                 drafts of the detailed specification and
                                                                 preparation of a final version well
                                                                 advanced for flood forecasting;
                                                                 b) Reports with clear outcomes and
                                                                 recommendations should have been
                                                                 sighted for all piloting activities and
                                                                 all special studies.
                             Results Indicators for Each
Intermediate Results                                             Use of Monitoring Results
                             Component
Component One: Regional Coordination
RFCU established at (a) Office logistics in place:               YR1
ENTRO       initially     in • Office space created with         a) Identify, investigate and address
Addis Ababa and later           sufficient supplies and with     reasons for any hold ups in
moved to Khartoum to            operating hardware/software in   establishment of the RFCU and
serve as a platform for         place;                           initiation of project activities; verify
and      to           assist                                     plans for the coming year.
strengthening of national • Staff contracts and ToRs             YR2
flood warning centers           prepared and signed;             a) Investigate any hold ups in the
through facilitation of : • Administrative systems               planning of the 1st annual flood
(a)     exchange        and     established;                     conference and study
dissemination of flood-                                          visits/workshops;


                                                   22
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)


related information for •   Office files – memos, meeting       b) Flag and initiate follow up on any
use at National level in    minutes, emails – show record of    issues relating to hosting, design,
EN             countries;   correspondence and information      establishment and population of the
(b) experience sharing      exchange between 3 EN               flood information database;
and capacity building.      countries facilitated by the        c) Check process in place for
                            RFCU;                               refinement of operational data and
                                                                training needs;
                        (b) Institutional arrangements/data-    d) Verify that the draft training
                        information-experience sharing          workshop program is viable;
                        process/procedures in place:            e) Review pilot activity and special
                                                                study plans for focus, linkages, cost,
                        • RFCU operational guidelines           etc;
                            and protocols established;          f) Verify that outcomes from special
                        • Report of Annual Flood Forum          studies are beginning to flow into
                            produced;                           Phase 2 implementation;
                        • Host website for flood                g) Appraise RFCU plans for the
                            information database identified;    coming year.
                                                                YR3
                        • Protocols and metadata for flood
                                                                a) Investigate any delays in acquiring
                            information database
                                                                and loading data to the flood
                            established;
                                                                information database;
                        • Key data loaded to database;          b) Determine extent to which the flood
                        • Links established to other            information database is meeting
                            relevant websites;                  needs;
                        •        Operational data/information   c) Evaluate training workshop
                        needs established and documented        program against needs and feedback;
                        on file;                                d) Review study visits/workshops
                        (c) Capacity building/training          program against objectives and
                        mechanism are in place:                 learning outcomes, feedback,
                                                                cost/value, etc;
                        • Training needs analysis               e) Confirm that complete and valid
                            completed and review process        documentation exists for all pilot
                            established;                        activities and special studies;
                        • Training modules developed;           f) Appraise RFCU plans for the
                        • Training courses undertaken           coming year.
                            with invoices and course
                            material on file;
                        • Study visits/workshops
                            undertaken within and external
                            to the EN region;
                        • Special studies identified,
                            scoped, costed, documented,
                            planned and delivered.




                                                23
                                                                                                                    Final (March 28, 2007)


                         Results Indicators for Each
Intermediate Results                                          Use of Monitoring Results
                         Component
Component Two: Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response
Reduced vulnerability of (a) Flood Risk Mapping initiated:    Year 1
flood prone communities. • Pilot mapping areas identified     a) Confirm pilot areas identified4;
                             through RFCU3;                   b) Alleviate any blocks to data
                                                              collection through the RFCU and/or
                         • Topographic data collected and     ENTRO;
                             loaded to GIS;                   c) Confirm pilot communities
                         • Initial hydrologic (and            identified for flood
                             hydraulic) analyses completed;   preparedness/response activities5;
                         • Initial digital flood risk maps    Year 2
                             prepared;                        a) Confirm initial hydrologic and other
                                                              analyses completed;
                         • Flood risk maps ground truthed;
                                                              b) Facilitate discussion of ground
                                                              truthing of flood risk mapping results
                         (b) Community Preparedness Plans
                                                              with countries as appropriate;
                         Developed and evaluated:
                                                              c) Confirm that Ethiopian and/or
                         • Communities targeted for           Sudanese agencies are effectively
                             piloting of improved local flood engaged in the facilitation process;
                             response identified4;            d) Confirm plans are complete and
                         • Information needed to support an that all support and/or enabling tools
                                                                                                     6

                             effective response determined    have been provided in a manner that
                             for pilot communities;           meets individual community needs;
                         • Community response plans           e) Confirm development of evaluation
                             developed and supporting tools   program with appropriate sign-offs;
                             developed and/or provided ; 6    f) Workshop/share lessons learnt from
                                                              pilot activities with the EN countries
                         • Evaluation program (looking at     through the RFCU;
                             processes used, resulting plans  g) Ensure Phase 2 activities and
                             and on-ground results and        program benefit from piloting
                             experiences) developed and       experiences.
                             supporting resources allocated;  Year 3
                         • Immediately following flood,       a) Confirm progress with and results
                             initiate the evaluation program; of flood risk mapping;
                         • Feed pilot activity experiences    b) Workshop to share lessons learnt
                             into Phase 2 implementation      from pilot activities with the EN
                             activities and program.          countries through the RFCU;
                                                              c) Ensure Phase 2 activities and
                                                              program benefit from pilot.

    3
      The identification of pilot mapping areas will consider and respond to recent flood events.
    4
      See tabulations of Recommended Target Areas for Lake Tana and Sudan on pages 21 & 23 respectively in “Social Baseline Analysis –
    Operational Guidelines” by Jennifer Bush, The Food Economy Group, December 2005 and note that these target areas have been further refined
    during Project Preparation (SMEC, 2007).
    5
      The rationale and criteria for selecting communities for training and sub-projects and the identification of such communities will be based on
    criteria developed during Project Preparation (SMEC, 2007) and will take into account a range of factors such as severity of flood, accessibility,
    capacity in the community and at local administration level, eligibility of proposed interventions within the FPEW envelope and objectives., etc.
    6
      Tools are likely to include local colour coded flood totem poles, river staff gauges, locally relevant flood response plans and associated training.



                                                                             24
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)


                        Results Indicators for Each
Intermediate Results                                          Use of Monitoring Results
                        Component
Component Three: Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication System
National flood forecast a) Design of flood forecasting        YR1
and warning systems system completed:                         a) Confirm refinements identified and
strengthened/new set up • Project preparation outputs on      incorporated into documentation;
(Ethiopia) and detailed     national flood forecast, warning b) Verify that national and local flood
design of the Regional      and communication systems         forecast, warning and community
Flood Forecast, Warning     refined following further         needs have been identified and
and       Communication     consultations with riparian       incorporated into documentation.
System completed.           experts;                          YR2
                                                              a) Review documentation identifying
                        • Local community flood forecast, approaches, equipment etc for trailing
                            warning and communication         and plans for such trails;
                            system needs assessed in terms    b) Verify that orders have been placed
                            of information, delivery, timing, and filled and equipment installed as
                            requirements;                     intended;
                        • Approaches, technologies,           c) Confirm that trials are proceeding
                            equipment, etc appropriate to     as planned.
                            service needs identified;         YR3
                        • Documentation prepared to           a) Review trial approach, equipment,
                            support trialing:                 etc performance reports;
                                                              b) Workshop and share lessons learnt
                        • Various hardware and software
                                                              with the EN countries through the
                            purchased to enable pilot trials
                                                              RFCU;
                            of approaches;
                                                              c) Confirm field surveys completed as
                        • Equipment installed and             required;
                            operational;                      d) Workshop detailed system design
                        • Performance assessed and            through RFCU and obtain RWG sign-
                            documented along with             off;
                            recommendations and lessons       e) Review and refine tender
                            learnt;                           documents prior to release for bidding.
                          •   Functional specifications arising
                              from project preparation refined
                              to accommodate pilot project
                              recommendations;
                          •   Field surveys to support system
                              upgrade and/or development
                              completed;
                          •   Detailed system design
                              completed;
                          •   Tender documents prepared and
                              ready for issue.




                                                  25
                                                                                                            Final (March 28, 2007)



                                                 Arrangements for results monitoring
                                                             Data Collection and Reporting
 Project Outcome          Baseline           YR1            YR2               YR3       Frequency          Data      Responsibility
    Indicators                                                                              and         Collection      for Data
                                                                                          Reports      Instruments     Collection
RFCU established         Starting       RFCU             Data            RFCO           ENTRO          Surveys,      ENTRO (with
and operational          from “zero-    established;     Sharing         operational    project        ENTRO/        input from
                         base” in all   flood            started         with data      progress       Country       National
Pilot flood              items          preparedness     amongst EN exchange,           reports (bi-   assessments   Institutions
preparedness and                        and response     countries;      knowledge      annual)
emergency response                      activities       flood           sharing etc.
activities trailed and                  initiated; and   preparedness in full swing;
assessed                                pilot            and response evaluation of
                                        community        activities      special
Detailed                                plans            evaluated       studies
specification                           prepared         and flood       completed
prepared for a                                           forecasting     and design
regional flood                                           pilot           embedded in
forecast, warning and                                    activities      FPRW-
communication                                            completed       Phase II.
system.                                                                  Flood
                                                                         Forecasting
                                                                         pilots trialed
                                                                         and designs
                                                                         incorporated
                                                                         in FPEW
                                                                         Phase II




                                                                 26
                                                                                                            Final (March 28, 2007)


     Intermediate
Outcome Indicators
(i) RFCU established Only a         (a) RFCU       (a) Web-site        (a) Special     ENTRO          Surveys,
and resourced.       Regional       established    created             studies         project        ENTRO/
                     Flood                                             completed.      progress       Country
                     Coordinator    (b) special    (b) study                           reports (bi-   assessments
                     (with          studies        visits/workshops                    annual)
                     additional     identified     undertaken
                     charge of      and detailed   ( c) special
                     coordinating   plans          studies initiated
                     the Eastern    prepared
                     Nile
                     Planning
                     Model) in
                     place




(ii) Pilot flood         None       (a)            (a)                 (a)             ENTRO          Surveys,
preparedness and                    community      implementation      Effectiveness   project        ENTRO/
emergency response                  information    of community        of              progress       Country
activities trialed and              needs          development         community       reports (bi-   assessments
assessed,                           identified     plans facilitated   plans and       annual)
                                                   (b) Digital flood   process
                                                   risk maps           evaluated
                                                   prepared




                                                              27
                                                                                                            Final (March 28, 2007)




(iii) Detailed        None             (a) Pilot       (a ) Community    (a) Flood     ENTRO          Surveys,
specification                          plans for       development       forecasting   project        ENTRO/
prepared for a                         community       plans for flood   detailed      progress       Country
regional flood                         development     preparedness      design for    reports (bi-   assessments
forecast, warning and                  plans for       implemented       the EN        annual)
communication                          flood           and evaluated     countries
system.                                forecasting                       completed.
                                       prepared


(iv) National Flood      Centers       Centers in      Centers in        All centers   ENTRO          Surveys,
Forecasting and          exist in      Sudan and       Sudan and         fully         project        ENTRO/
Warning Centers          Sudan and     Egypt           Egypt             operational   progress       Country
strengthened/initiated   Egypt. None   strengthening   strengthening                   reports (bi-   assessments
                         in Ethiopia   initiated and   completed and                   annual)
                                       a new centre    new centre
                                       initiated in    completed
                                       Ethiopia




                                                                 28
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)


                           Annex 4: Detailed Project Description
           Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                        (FPEW I)


FPEW I comprises of three key components, namely, regional coordination (US$ 1.69 M), pilot
flood preparedness and emergency response ($1.26 M), and flood forecasting warning and
communication (US$ 1.02 M).

                 1.      Component 1: Regional Coordination (US$ 1.69 M)

The hydrologic setting in the EN is such that most of the flow causing damages in Sudan
originates in the Ethiopian highlands in the east. Current flood forecasting systems in operation
in Egypt and with limited capabilities in Sudan rely on satellite observation of Cold Cloud Cover
(and duration) over the Ethiopian highlands and flow gauging stations within Sudan. Although it
is estimated that getting rainfall and flow data from Ethiopia in real-time could increase the lead-
time by about 2 – 3 days, there is currently no mechanism for such data sharing. An increase in
flood forecast lead times would greatly benefit flood emergency response activities in Sudan,
especially for sites relatively far upstream from Khartoum. The experience of Sudan in flood
mitigation and management could be beneficially shared with Ethiopia, where flood disaster
management is not well developed.
Several regulation dams are contemplated in Ethiopia with potential benefits for flood mitigation
downstream. Moreover, the EN countries of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan are currently working on
a number of projects targeting watershed management, irrigation and drainage development,
regional power trade, as well as a Joint Program for multipurpose development (JMP) of the EN
waters. It is expected that the JMP will result in projects that will have transboundary impact in
all three EN countries. The planning and design of such projects will require the assessment of
downstream impacts including with respect to flood mitigation, reduced flood risk and damage,
mutual benefits, etc. While the countries have agreed in principle to share data in real time to
facilitate the analysis of impacts and to enable projects to operate effectively, the protocols to be
employed have not yet been determined.
The immediate objective of this key component is to put in place a mechanism for enhancing
regional cooperation in the areas of flood management and flood forecasting, and for sharing
regional experiences and information. It is clear that regional cooperation will evolve over time
and this first step will lay the foundation for future transboundary management of flood disasters
in the EN. It is envisaged that a regional unit will be established to manage the day-to-day
implementation of the project components, in addition to providing a platform to enhance
regional cooperation in flood management. The outputs and activities under this component are
described briefly below.
Output 1 - EN Regional Flood Coordination Unit Established
The main aim of this unit is to play a key role in coordinating project implementation and
management. It will manage and implement day to day current and future implementation phases
of FPEW and liaise between donors, consultants and EN countries. It will also play an important
role in coordinating the common activities between FPEW and other IDEN projects. It will also



                                                                                                  29
                                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)

help in coordinating data collection and analysis from the EN countries, together with other
IDEN projects. The unit will also serve the EN countries in the exchange and dissemination of
vital flood-related information for use at national level; and will function as a platform for
experience sharing and capacity building.
The RFCU unit will enhance flood-related information and data exchange among the EN
countries and strengthen transboundary flood management. It is planned that initially the RFCU
will be established and will be equipped with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office
facilities, dedicated line for internet connection, etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional
Flood Coordinator7 (also driving the FPEW project) supported by two other full time staff, all
competitively hired from the region, (a Regional Flood Coordinator, a Hydrometeorologist and
an IT/GIS person). Functions such as finance, procurement, and administration; formal external
communication; protocols; and donor liaison; will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO
organization according to existing modes of operation. ENTRO’s administrative support cost
amounting to US$330,000 includes costs related to FRCU office support (including the
additional funding to shift the office to Khartoum) such as electricity, telephones, internet, office
space, fax, photocopying, as well as procurement, financial and administrative support. This
anticipated requirement for the project period is approximately 8% of the project cost and
appears reasonable. ENTRO will charge these on a reimbursable basis from the project.
It is envisaged that the unit will serve as a data repository, provide flood-risk maps (where and
when available), satellite remote sensing and GIS-based information on flood extents (where and
when available), conduct flood behavior analyses, facilitate exchange of experiences,
information among different national flood forecasting centers, provide forums for riparian and
international experts to exchange experiences, provide useful information in the planning of
regional projects with potential impacts on flood mitigation such as the ENPM and the Nile DSS,
and coordinate preparation/implementation of future phases of FPEW projects etc.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Establish RFCU protocols and operational guidelines – establish the rules for how
the RFCU will operate; consult with the EN countries to ensure support for the RFCU remains
strong; establish operating protocols with ENTRO in line and in consultation with the
development under the Water Resources Planning and Management Project under the SVP; and
secure policy-related guidance and approvals from ENCOM/ENSAPT as required.
Activity 1.2: Establish, staff , equip and operate the RFCU – refurbish office accommodation as
required, recruit staff, procure and install equipment (computers, communication,
dedicated/broadband internet line, transport, etc), maintain and operate the RFCU over the life of
the project, and finalize internal organizational issues with ENTRO, etc.
Output 2 – Annual Flood Forums Conducted
EN Annual Flood Forums will be conducted to facilitate sharing of experiences among
practitioners, planners, and scientists within the region and (where possible) from other river
basins world-wide. It is envisaged that topics addressed will include all aspects of flood
management, including current and emerging practices, the use and effectiveness of recent ICT


7
    The competitively hired Regional Flood Coordinator will charge the Project for the services rendered.



                                                                                                            30
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)

technologies in flood forecasting and risk assessment, flood damage assessment and damage
prediction, assessment of socio-economic impacts of floods, etc.
Activities:
Activity 2.1: Build professional network and share knowledge through annual forums - organize
and conduct annual flood forums and in so doing assist in the building and maintenance of a
professional network of flood management practitioners, and scientists in the EN, line agencies,
international organizations, etc.
Activity 2.2: Facilitate participation of Eastern Nile flood forecasting specialists in international
flood forums – support and facilitate the participation and publication of joint research of Eastern
Nile flood forecasting specialists in international flood forecasting conferences, for the purpose
of upgrading their knowledge and experience.
Output 3 – Database of Flood Information Established and Maintained
A web-based database of flood related data and information will be developed, established, and
maintained within the RFCU. All riparians will have access to the database which is expected to
be used in the planning and implementation of flood management measures (e.g. floodplain land
use management, assessment and reduction of the vulnerability of communities residing in the
floodplain, planning of flood damage mitigation measures, etc).
Activities:
Activity 3.1: Design and establish a web-based database – will involve the development of
protocols and metadata for the database (and perhaps also for the website hosting the database),
for data upload and its use as well as for riparian access, the upload of flood-related data (e.g.
meteorology, hydrology, topography, channel/floodplain and other characteristics, land use,
historical floods, existing and planned/potential regulations and other interventions, etc), creation
of links to other good practice and relevant websites, as well as to other ENSAP projects such as
the Eastern Nile Planning Model, etc.
Activity 3.2: Collect, collate, process quality assured data and load data in the database – the
collection and collation of data to be loaded to the database and its upload in line with agreed
protocols, selected analyses aimed at identifying data gaps, quality etc.
Output 4 –Information and Experience Exchange
Work to date has indicated that while resource constraints (e.g. data collection and information
dissemination systems) are an impediment to the implementation of flood mitigation and
management practices, difficulties with access to and incomplete local knowledge of such
measures and how they could be implemented within the EN are further impediments. Capacity,
focused on all elements of integrated floodplain management, can however be built relatively
quickly through the pooling and sharing of knowledge within and external to the EN. Study
visits/workshops, for both technical specialists and high level managers, to centers successfully
tackling issues faced within the EN countries will assist in building regional capacity. Contact
and involvement with the EU-funded network and partnerships on ‘Flood Awareness and
Prevention Policy in border areas’ (FLAPP) formed in European river systems are also
envisaged. Appropriate linkages to Nile DSS and ENPM will be developed to ensure synergy in
these development and compatibility of the data base developed under each project.




                                                                                                  31
                                                                             Final (March 28, 2007)


Activities:
Activity 4.1: Identify key knowledge gaps – an analysis of data required within the database to
support flood forecast and warning operations as well as wider floodplain management needs
together with an assessment of training/experience sharing needs and opportunities. Will include
identification of target groups.
Activity 4.2: Develop training modules and deliver workshops – follows from activity 4.1 with
training to also cover the web-based database as well as flood management and mitigation.
Activity 4.3: Conduct selected study visits – aimed at gaining broader international and regional
experience in flood management and mitigation measures and involving both technical and
senior managers within the EN countries (e.g. flood forecast centers in Mekong or Bangladesh,
Egypt, Sudan, the Drought Monitoring Center in Nairobi, Kenya, Mur River in Graz, Austria and
site visits to places of relevance to the FPEW project within the EN countries (e.g. trial
equipment sites, national forecast centers, etc)).
Output 5 – Regional Analysis and Special Studies Conducted
FPEW 1 implementation of the FPEW project will run in parallel with project preparation for the
first half year of the FPEW-II project. During this period, it is expected that the preparation study
will highlight areas that require further investigation. It is proposed that special studies that could
be expected to have a direct and positive impact on subsequent implementation activities (i.e.
FPEW II implementation) will be conducted the social and environmental framework of which
will be taken care of in FPEW II. These may include such regional studies as: development of a
robust regionally-based methodology for flood damage assessment; assessment of the
effectiveness of existing and planned regulation works on flood mitigation and their implications
for reservoir operation; determining the incidence and characteristics of flash floods;
development of a flood risk reduction strategy for flood-prone areas along the Baro-Akob-Sobat
rivers; facilitated development of State and local flood response plans, etc.
Activities:
Activity 5.1: Identify the need for special studies – project preparation and national consultations
will assist in the identification of areas that require further investigation.
Activity 5.2: Conduct special studies as required.


Component 1: Time frame and Budget:
  Time frame:                                          3 years (2007 – 2009)
  Budget and cost sharing:
       Component Cost:                                 US $ 1.69 M
       National (in-kind) contribution:                US $ 0.10 M
       Other (ENTRO)                                   US $ 0.20 M
       Financing needed:                               US $ 1.39 M

    2.      Component 2: Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response (US$1.26 M)

Identifying and mapping at-risk communities, including the extent of flooding and the location of
high risk areas, is a basic input to flood response planning as well as to analyses aimed at
identifying appropriate flood mitigation measures. It is also a major input to determining



                                                                                                    32
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)

vulnerability - the ability of the community to anticipate, cope with, and recover from floods (i.e.
their susceptibility and resilience).
Increased flood preparedness and improved response (i.e. reduced vulnerability) are key drivers
of flood damage reduction. While flood proofing assets likely to be affected by floods can be
effective in reducing vulnerability (and thus damage), a prior knowledge of the likely extent and
depth of expected flooding as well as knowledge of the types of assets and activities located
within the floodplain are essential. Without such information and the plans to guide response in
the event of a flood, the full benefits of river height forecasts cannot be realized. Flood
emergency response in the EN is currently, by and large, reactive and ad hoc.
The immediate focus of this component is therefore on reducing the vulnerability of flood prone
communities.
Output 1 - Flood risk mapping commenced
Flood risk maps will be produced together with other related mapping products to support flood
management in the EN. Mapping activity will initially be restricted to selected (pilot) areas such
as those around Lake Tana and Gambella (around 14 sq km) in Ethiopia, and around Tuti island,
Dongola, and Khartoum (around 58 sq km) in Sudan. The final identification will be done
through country consultations. The maps will support a range of activities including: flood-risk
assessment of communities; land-use planning of floodplains; flood emergency (contingency)
planning; flood-damage assessment; and assessment of the impact of future/planned
interventions. It is envisaged that two types of maps will be prepared: a (GIS-based) base map
showing all flood prone areas and communities with a linked data base containing the major
features, and a detailed flood-risk map. These maps will be prepared using topographic survey
and existing digital terrain data coupled with the results of hydrologic and hydraulic analyses,
and compiled into a suitable digital format.
The base map will be prepared using existing and freely available satellite imagery together with
topographic data (such as the SRTM 90-m DEM, etc ) and will cover the Lake Tana area and
flood-prone areas in Gambella (both in Ethiopia), and flood-prone areas along the Blue Nile –
Main Nile rivers in Sudan. The detailed maps will be produced for selected flood prone areas and
will be based on a detailed topographic survey using current technologies (such as LIDAR). The
aim will be to produce topographic contour maps with contour elevations of about 0.20 – 0.25 m.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Prepare digital flood risk maps – will involve the preparation of a base/detailed
digital terrain model and the overlay of the results of hydraulic analyses within selected areas.
Output 2 – Community flood preparedness and response plans
An integrated approach, involving consideration of non-structural measures in terms of capacity
building at community level, is required in order to achieve a sustainable reduction in flood risk
and effective long term flood management. Successful interventions (i.e. those that result in a
long term and sustainable reduction in flood risk and improved coping mechanisms) will most
likely involve National, State and Local governments as well as the at-risk communities.
Implementation of key elements at pilot level will enable various strategies and measures for
enhancing community capacity to better manage flood disasters to be explored. Results will




                                                                                                 33
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)

provide valuable ground-truthing and learning opportunities for implementation on a larger scale
as part of FPEW II implementation. Pilot activities could include: facilitating and assisting
selected communities develop local and higher level flood management and response plans;
piloting warning dissemination methodologies within selected communities with regard for
timeliness and delivery to those who need to know; improving community understanding and
interpretation of warning information etc. Further possible pilot implementation activities will be
added as more information is generated through on-going project preparation. However, during
this phase no structural measures for flood mitigation are envisaged.
Activities:
Activity 2.1: Determine information needed by the community for effective response – aimed at
ensuring that flood forecast and warning system development is bottom up as well as top down
driven and that it delivers what is needed to enable an effective response ahead of expected
flooding. This will involve eh following steps:
•   identify the pilot communities (a maximum of 4 per country, Ethiopia and Sudan), in due
    consultation with DPPC, CDO;
•   organize the community through the help of local NGO’s, DPPC, CDO etc;
•   identify issues/problems related to floods through a participatory process with the
    communities.

Activity 2.2: Facilitate development of community response plans – will involve the provision of
technical and other assistance to streamline local development of plans.
•   develop mitigation plans specific to the communities (these planes could include activities
    such as establishment of level indicators, areas of temporary shelters, storage areas,
    communication channels, evacuation planes etc.) by the national focal point institutions with
    due participations from staff of DPPC, CDO, and NGOs;
•   develop understandable and user friendly training materials and tools including its
    procurement;
•   impart training to the community and implement the plans.

Activity 2.3: Evaluate effectiveness of plans and process – this will involve a process of
participatory evaluation and address the effectiveness of the activities in terms of flood damages
avoided (in comparison with previous years and as against non-targeted communities) and
community well-being. This could be carried out by designing an appropriate questionnaire and
filling it up through participatory process among the targeted communities and holding a focused
discussion with selected members of the targeted communities. In case there is an existing plan,
the project would try to come up with ways of improving and updating them.
Component 2: Time frame and Budget:
  Time frame:                                        3 years (2007 – 2009)
  Budget and cost sharing:
       Component Cost:                               US $ 1.26 mill
       National (in-kind) contribution:              US $ 0.20 mill
       Financing needed:                             US $ 1.06 mill



                                                                                                34
                                                                           Final (March 28, 2007)



3. Component 3: Flood Forecasting Warning and Communication System (US$ 1.02 M)

This component aims at improve flood forecasting institutions and develop a detailed design for
the EN flood forecasting, warning and communication system. The communication element of a
flood forecast and warning system is essential to its operation and the reduction of flood
damages. Data has to be acquired and transmitted to the forecast center (and in some cases to the
at-risk communities as well) and the resulting forecast transmitted to the local area for
interpretation, value addition, and disseminated to those who need to take action. The
effectiveness of the system depends not only on the accuracy of the raw data and forecast but
also on the lead time available to take action before the flood begins to affect the area.
In Egypt, the Nile Forecasting Centre was set up in the Planning Sector of MWRI in 1990 with
assistance from NOAA (US National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Agency), and is
well-equipped and skilled. It has developed models for short and medium term forecasting of
inflows to HAD, and long-term simulation models for investigations of reservoir operations. It
has facilities to receive satellite data, including half-hourly CCD information and imagery from
METEOSAT. It also receives meteorological observations and weather forecasts from the
ECMWF, which provides, inter alia, recent rainfall observations from five or six synoptic
stations in the Ethiopian highlands. The Centre is, therefore, able to make near real-time
estimates of rainfall in the upper Blue Nile basin from CCD data using established techniques
that have been calibrated to the ground observations available. Data from selected river gauging
stations upstream of HAD (in Sudan and Uganda) are also transmitted to the Forecasting Centre.
A variety of techniques are also used to make seasonal stream flow estimates of inflows to Lake
Nasser, and these are refined every 10 days as data from observation stations become available.
Flood mapping are carried out manually in Egypt up to now. Digitizing existing flood maps and
automating the flood mapping in the future is mandatory.
In Sudan there is a systematic arrangement for flood forecasting, warning and communication.
The flood forecasting system uses the Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) developed with
World Bank assistance (Dutch consultants) after the devastating floods of 1988 and the Galway
Flood Forecasting System (GFFS). This system is currently not operational, due to lack to
trained staff and availability of funds to further sustainability and upgrading of the system. There
is no capability to estimate likely inundation extents. Forecasts are disseminated through official
media (TV, radio, newspapers) but are generally not received by many of the (rural) flood prone
communities.
In Ethiopia there is no systematic real-time flood forecasting system although some forecasting
is done in the Awash basin using statistical techniques. Seasonal and short-term forecasts of
rainfall by the National Meteorological Services Agency are frequently used to issue warnings
regarding the likelihood of flooding. However, these warnings are often too general to be used to
plan emergency response activities. The warning messages are issued through the mass media.
Flood forecasts for the Lake Tana area would need to be based on expected rainfall as lead times
are extremely short and river rises rapidly.
Regionally available forecasts of flood peaks and volumes for the EN would help reduce
vulnerability and flood plain management response in Sudan as well as improve operation of the




                                                                                                 35
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)

HAD. This would reduce the risk of releasing excess water downstream while assisting in
keeping flows below critical levels.
Output 1 – Strengthen national flood forecast and warning systems and initiate new one in
Ethiopia.
The strengthening of national flood forecasting and warning capabilities and systems is one of
the priorities of the FPEW I project. Support will be provided across the EN in the form of
enhanced data acquisition, capacity building and communication equipment. In addition, in the
case of Ethiopia, support will be needed to initiate the formation of a unit (possibly) at the
Ministry of Water Resources dedicated to generating and disseminating flood forecast and
warning information. An important element of project implementation will be the determination
of basic data needed to support flood forecast and warning activities at national and regional
level as well as at the local community level. This will necessitate the piloting of communication
equipment for disseminating warning information to selected flood-prone communities.
Activities:
Activity 1.1: Prepare/enhance flood forecast, warning and communication system requirements
– will involve refinement of project preparation outputs following further consultation with
riparian experts as well as assessment of local community needs in terms of what information is
required, with what lead time, how will they receive it, etc (i.e. a consideration of top down and
bottom up needs).
Activity 1.2: Identify appropriate approaches, technologies and equipment – likely to include a
mix of technologies from manually read staff gauges upwards aimed at meeting identified needs.
Activity 1.3: Procure for pilot communities (same communities as indicated under component 2
activity 1.2) – aimed at experimenting approaches so that final performance best matches needs.
This activity could be shifted to FPEW II depending on the workload on the side of ENTRO.
Activity 1.4: Enhancing current institutions and initiate a new one in Ethiopia - one major
activity will be strengthening national forecasting center and initiate a new one in Ethiopia. The
main output of this component will be to sustain the institutional capacities among the three
countries and upgrade existing centers. In a next phase (FPEW II), one of these national centers
can be upgraded to be the regional forecasting center for the EN region. If the EN countries agree
at the end of FPEW I about important need for implementing a Regional Flood Forecasting
Center (RFFC), in this case the RFFC will be operated by specialists from the three national
center and will require special institutional arrangements that can be made clear at the end of
FPEW I and can be implemented as part of FPEW II.
Output 2 - Detailed design of regional flood forecast, warning and communication system
Flood forecasting, warning and communication is one of the four components the FPEW project.
During FPEW I, analysis will be made on current systems, decide about new modules that can
upgrade on the current system to serve as region system or deliver a conceptual design that can
serve the EN. It is proposed that as part of the FPEW I implementation, the conceptual design of
the EN Flood Forecasting, Warning and Communication System will be developed into a
detailed design. This will include software and hardware aspects for real time data acquisition
and transmission, the types of forecast information to be generated and the communication
systems including the format and type of information to be delivered to end users.




                                                                                               36
                                                                          Final (March 28, 2007)


Activities:
Activity 2.1: Prepare/enhance functional specifications from project preparation – will aim to
look at existing specifications and address specific additional or new requirements in terms of
data and information needs in order to support and enhance local response activities.
Activity 2.2: Undertake necessary field work – will involve field surveys to review existing
monitoring systems, the location of additional data collection and transmission systems, etc.
Activity 2.3: Prepare detailed design and tender documents – this activity will deal with
undertaking detailed design either for upgrading one of the existing systems to serve regional
purposes or set a detailed design for a new one if current systems cannot serve regional
requirements. These detailed designs will be based on the conceptual framework to be proposed
by the preparation consultants of FPEW II.
Component 3: Time frame and Budget:
  Time frame:                                       2 years (2008– 2009)
  Budget and cost sharing:
       Component Cost:                              US $ 1.02 M
       National (in-kind) contribution:             US $ 0.10 M
       Funding required:                            US $ 0.92 M



                                  Projected Work Plan (Timeline)

                                                          1   2 3     4      5   6   7   8   9     1   1   1
                       Quarters (1-12)                                                             0   1   2


Output/Activity
Establish RFCU operational Guidelines
Establish , staff and equip office
Build Professional network and share
knowledge through annual forums
Design and agree on web-based database
Collect, collate, process, assure quality
and load data
Identify Key Knowledge gaps
Desktop training modules and deliver
workshops
Conduct selected study visits
Identify needs
Conduct special studies
Prepare digital flood risk maps




                                                                                             37
                                        Final (March 28, 2007)


Determine information needed by the
community for effective response
Facilitate development of community
development plans
Evaluate effectiveness of plans and
process
Refine Flood Forecast, warning, and
communication system requirements
Identify appropriate approaches,
technologies and equipment
Procure for pilot communities
Refine functional specifications from
project specification
Undertake necessary field work
Prepare detailed design and tender
documents




                                                           38
                                                                        Final (March 28, 2007)



                                  Annex 5: Project Costs
           Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                       (FPEW-I)


                                                         Local      Foreign      Total
Project Cost By Component and/or Activity
                                                       US $million US $million US $million
Regional Coordination                                      0.30        1.39        1.69
Pilot Flood Preparedness and Emergency Response            0.20        1.06        1.26
Flood Forecasting Warning & Communication Sys.             0.10        0.92        1.02

Total Baseline Cost                                        0.60           3.37           3.97
Physical and Price Contingencies                           0.00           0.11           0.11
                               Total Project Costs         0.60           3.48           4.08
                        Total Financing Required                          3.48

Justification for Contingencies:

In the project costs, unallocated costs for physical and price contingencies account for 2.7 % of
the base costs which is somewhat of a lower order as compared to 6.7 to 9.6% adopted for
similar projects funded in Ethiopia with longer duration of five years as in the case of Pastoral
Community Development Project and Rural Capacity Building Project. However this is
considered adequate due to (a) the project has a short implementation period of three years; and
(b) the project will have an overlap with the FPEW-II project for 2 years and hence reallocation
could be considered later while detailing the linkages between FPEW I and II.


                              Detailed Project Cost by Category

                                                                        Total
              Categories
                                                                      US $million
              (i) Goods and Equipments                                    0.67
              (ii) Consultancy                                            1.92
              (iii) Workshop/Training                                     0.45
              (iv) Operation and maintenance cost
              (a) external funding (0.33 million)
              (b) Country/ENTRO contribution ((0.60 million)
              ( c) Operation and maintenance cost (Total)                 0.93
              (v) Unallocated                                             0.11
                                               Total Project Costs1       4.08
                                        Total Financing Required          3.48




                                                                                                39
                                                                         Final (March 28, 2007)

Some of the highlights of the cost elements are:
   • Consultancies constitute 47% of the total cost followed by operating cost (24%);
      equipment (16%); and workshop/training (11%). This is generally in conformity with
      what could generally be expected in an institutional development/knowledge
      management kind of project.
   • ENTRO’s administrative support cost (see the table below for details) amounting to $
      330,000 office operation and maintenance costs (including the additional costs to shift the
      RFCU office to Khartoum) such as electricity, telephone costs, internet, advertising
      expenses, bank charges, communication material, printing and dissemination, office
      space rental, office maintenance and refurbishment, fax, and photocopying; travel and
      additional staff costs for procurement, financial management and administrative support
      provided exclusively for the implementation of the Project. This anticipated requirement
      for the project period is approximately 8% of the project cost and appears reasonable.
      ENTRO will charge these amounts from the project on reimbursable basis as it will have
      a budget line for FPEW-I related expenditure.
                                ENTRO Administrative Support Cost

       Item               Unit              Rate ($)            Number              Cost ($)
RFCU secretary             1                 5,000                2.5               12,500
and staff
RFCU Office fit-           LS                15,000                1                15,000
out (carpet,
furniture etc.
RFCU Office fit-           LS                10,000                1                10,000
out (painting,
cabling etc)
RFCU office           LS per year            8,000                2.5               20,000
running cost
(power, internet,
water, phone,
hospitality etc)
RFCU Office           LS per year            5,000                2.5               12,500
and equipment
consumables
(paper, printer,
cartridges,
stationery etc)
Vehicle Running       LS per year            20,000               2.5               50,000
Cost
Project support            LS               210,000               1.0            210,000 (see
(financial                                                                      Annex 1 : need
management,                                                                     for $87600 for
procurement,                                                                      close to 2.5
administrative,                                                                 years: rounded
auditing etc)                                                                         off)
Total                                                                               330,000



                                                                                               40
                                                                     Final (March 28, 2007)




•   There is a provision of 100 person months of interns (students working in the field of
    flood management) @ $100 per month to provide support to the National Focal Point
    Institutions (NFPIs) in each of the country during project implementation. It is expected
    that this would improve the capacity of the countries and provide them with trained junior
    level staff to be absorbed later to ensure sustainability of project benefits.




                                                                                           41
                                                                            Final (March 28, 2007)


                          Annex 6: Implementation Arrangements
                Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning - Phase 1
                                         (FPEW I)

ENTRO is established in Addis Ababa under a Headquarters Agreement with the Government of
Ethiopia, which awards to ENTRO the legal personality, privileges and immunities of a regional
organization. The ENCOM approved legal status of ENTRO (December 2002) and invested
ENTRO with the legal personality to perform the functions entrusted to it, including the power to
receive and administer grant funding, in the territories of all three EN countries. ENTRO has
been designed as an NBI institution by Nile-COM (Extraordinary Nile-COM Meeting, Addis
Ababa, Ethiopia, September 12, 2003).

ENTRO will sign a Grant Agreement with the World Bank and thus be responsible together with
all the EN Countries for the coordination of all activities, procurement of equipment and
consultants, and management of funds. ENTRO will have final responsibility for the quality of
outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s Nile Team in supervising the
activities and with the already identified National Flood Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan),
MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).

The Regional Flood Coordination Unit (refer section II C 1) will be established and equipped
with basic facilities (basic IT equipment, office facilities, dedicated line for internet connection,
etc). The unit will be headed by the Regional Flood Coordinator (also driving the FPEW project)
with support provided by two full time staff (long term consultants - a Hydrometeorologist and
an IT/GIS person), who will be competitively hired from the region. The day to day management
of the project will however be coordinated by the Regional Flood Coordinator. Functions such as
finance, procurement, and administration; formal external communication; protocols; and donor
liaison; will be undertaken within the existing ENTRO organization according to existing modes
of operation.
Activities at national level would be supported by the National Focal Point Institutions (NFPIs)
in the respective Ministries of Water Affairs and will be headed by the National Flood
Coordinator (which is part of the overall ENSAP arrangement). The NFPIs will suitably interact
with other national level institutions (through committees/working groups) to implement the
project at country levels. The data sharing/logistics commitment from each country would be
ensured through a formal commitment letter by each country. Countries will provide counterpart
staff to support project activities within their territories, as agreed in a letter of commitment from
each country. The detailed implementation arrangements will be as below:

       Initial implementation through RFCU will be conducted at ENTRO through its Ethiopia
        office at Addis Ababa until around the completion of the first year of the project.
        ENTRO will recruit a Regional Flood Coordinator (FCU); Hydrometeorologist; and
        IT/GIS specialist for managing RFCU. RFCU’s mandate will mainly be overall project
        implementation and management.
       RFCU will be later be transitioned to Khartoum (legal, institutional, technical and
        financial arrangement will be in place within a year of the project). ENTRO will make
        sure that all arrangements are in place before moving.



                                                                                                   42
                                                                        Final (March 28, 2007)


        Regional Flood Coordinator will be responsible for managing day to day implementation
         matters of the project, both at regional and national levels.
        Regional Flood Coordinator will liaison with NFPI represented by national coordinators,
         who will manage and supervise the implementation mechanisms within their respected
         countries.
RFCU will report to ENTRO and receive financing and technical support from ENTRO main
office. Regional Flood Coordinator will report to the senior coordinator (the regional flood
coordinator/senior coordinator) at ENTRO main office.
        NFPI (located in ministries of water affairs in each country) will be responsible for
         implementing the project’s activities at national level; NFC (currently the manager of
         national flood forecasting center in each country) will be representing the NFPI in the
         implementation process. NFPI will work closely with RFCU of the project.
        NFPI will report to ENSAPT team leader in each country about issues, progress, and
         needed support. ENSAPT team leader will reflect these aspects in ENSAPT regional
         meetings.
        ENTRO will keep track of all records of the project.
        M&E specialist will be hired at ENTRO level and he will consider all M&E activities
         for all ENSAP projects.
        Auditing of the project will be part of annual ENTRO Auditing activities.
        ENTRO will report to ENSAPT leaders about the progress, issues and needed actions
         during project implementation.
        ENSAPT will report to ENCOM and receive guidance as well.
In addition, a technical advisory group of regional/international advisors/peer reviewers will be
formed at ENTRO level to provide technical guidance during project implementation. This group
will provide the advice to all ENSAP project. This cost will be reflected in overall ENTRO
budget and not on this project.
The implementation setup is illustrated below.




                                                                                              43
                                                                                     Final (March 28, 2007)




                                                           ENCOM
                                                                                             ENSAPT Leader
                                                         ENSAP                               In Each
                                                         T                                   Country
                                                     ENTRO Main Office
                                                       Addis Ababa,
                                          Projects Coordination Unit (Senior Coordinator,
                                          presently the regional coordinator for the flood
                                                            and model))

            Monitoring and Evaluation                                    Board of Regional/International
                                                                           Advisors/Peer Reviewers
                                                                              for ENSAP projects
             Independent Audit
                                                                                           NFPI Represented
                                                   ENTRO Branch Office                         by NFC in
                                                     Khartoum (RFCU),                        Each Country
                                                 Regional Flood Coodinator                  (supported by
                                                                                             national flood
            Local Support Staff                                                               forecasting
                IT, Secretary,
           Procurement/Finance,
                                                                                                centers)
         junior technical staff, ..etc.


                       Regional IT/GIS Specialist                           Regional Hydro meteorologist
Note: RFC: Regional Flood Coordinator; NFC: National Flood Coordinator; NI: National
Institutions




                                                                                                           44
            Annex 7: Financial Management and Disbursement Arrangements
           Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                       (FPEW I)

                                     Financial Management

                                          Introduction
The financial management assessment was carried out in accordance with the Financial
Management Practices Manual issued by the Financial Management Board on 3 November 2005.
The objective of the assessment was to determine whether the implementing entities have
acceptable financial management arrangements, which will ensure: (1) the funds are used only
for the intended purposes in an efficient and economical way, (2) the preparation of accurate,
reliable and timely periodic financial reports, (3) safeguard the entities’ assets; and the existing
capacity of ENTRO is capable of handling the Trust Fund financial transactions. The FM
assessment was done in May and December 2006.

                                Summary of Project Description
The development objective of the overall FPEW project (FPEW I and II) is to reduce human
suffering and damages, as well as to capture the benefits of excess flood waters resulting from
flooding in the Eastern Nile. FPEW I will contribute directly to the development objective of the
FPEW. The specific objective of FPEW I is to establish a regional institutional basis and to
strengthen the existing capacities of the EN countries in flood forecasting, mitigation and
management, promoting regional cooperation as well as to enhance the readiness of the EN
countries to subsequent implementation of the FPEW project (i.e. FPEW II). It will prepare the
foundation for FPEW II implementation in terms of institutional settings and data/information
collections/sharing at community and national levels, together with enhancing regional
coordination and cooperation.
                                Risk Assessment and Mitigation
Risk               Risk      Risk Mitigating Measures  Conditions of        Remarks
                   Rating    incorporated into the     Negotiations,
                             Project Design            Board or
                                                       Effectiveness
                                                       (Yes or No)
Inherent Risk
Entity Level       M          The Grant includes a          N               The grant is
                             component to further build                     implemented by
                             the capacity of ENTRO                          the three
                             and the National Flood                         countries
                             Focal Points in each of the                    (Ethiopia,
                             three countries                                Sudan and
                                                                            Egypt) and
                                                                            ENTRTO
Control Risk
Budgeting          L                                      N                ENTRO
                                                                           prepared a five-
                                                                           year strategic
                                                                           plan, which is
                                                                           the basis for
                                                                           annual budget
Accounting         L                                      N                One additional
                                                                           finance officer
                                                                           to be hired to
                                                                           strengthen the
                                                                           finance section
                                                                           of ENTRO
Internal Control   M        ENTRO will establish an                        Currently, there
                            Internal Audit Unit in                         is no internal
                            calendar year 2007                             audit section in
                                                                           ENTRO
Funds Flow         L
Financial          L
Reporting
Auditing           L

In view of the issues mentioned above, the overall financial management risk rating for ENTRO
is medium.

                                 Strengths and Weaknesses
ENTRO is now managed by a fairly strong management team. The Finance and Administration
Department (FAD) has well experienced and qualified staff. The Finance Unit has four staff,
including the Head of FAD. ENTRO will hire one additional finance officer with basic
procurement knowledge to further strengthen its capacity in the financial area. ENTRO is in the
process of updating its accounting system by installing new accounting software-Microsoft
Solomon and also revising its financial management manual. ENTRO has already installed the
new accounting software and is in the process of testing the new system by running it in parallel
with the old system. The new accounting system will be fully operational in calendar 2007. The
complete revision of the FM manual is included in the work program of calendar year 2007.

As the activities of ENTRO increase, there is a need to strengthen its internal control system.
One of the means to strengthen the internal control system is to establish a strong Internal Audit
Unit. ENTRO is planning to establish an Internal Audit Unit in calendar year 2007. The
establishment of the Unit will improve the internal control system of ENTRO.


                                     Implementation Entities
FPEW I will be executed by ENTRO. The Finance and Administration Department of ENTRO
will be responsible for the overall financial management of the Grant. ENTRO will have final
responsibility for the quality of outputs and will work in close cooperation with both the Bank’s


                                                                                               46
Nile Team in supervising the activities and with the already identified National Flood
Coordinators in the MoIWR (Sudan), MoWR (Ethiopia) and MoIWR (Egypt).

                                             Staffing
ENTRO has now four finance staff responsible to undertake the financial transactions of the
program as a whole. The Head of the Finance and Administration is responsible for the overall
financial management of ENTRO. The Head of the Finance Unit, supported by an accountant
and cashier/secretary handles the day-to-day financial activities of ENTRO. One additional
finance officer will be hired to strengthen the Finance Unit of ENTRO. All of the finance staff
have a long period of relevant experience and adequate qualifications.

                                          Budgeting
Each year, ENTRO prepares its annual budget and the budget is approved by the Eastern Nile
Subsidiary Action Plan Team (ENSAP Team) and the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers
(ENCOM). ENTRO is moving towards basing its annual budget on the five-year strategic plan
(2006-2010). The sources of finance and expenditure details will be shown in the annual budget.

                                            Accounting
ENTRO uses double entry accounting system based on cash basis of accounting. All revenue and
expenditures are accounted for on cash basis of accounting. Cost of fixed assets and stock are
expensed at the time of purchase, but memorandum records are maintained to control the assets
and stock. ENTRO has developed a Financial Manual, which is concise and clear, used as a
reference guide for the staff working in the Finance Unit. So as to record the financial transaction
of the Gant, the Finance Unit of ENTRO will assign a code for the grant.

ENTRO has recently installed new accounting software, Microsoft Solomon, as part of
upgrading its accounting system. The new accounting system is being tested and will be fully
operational at the beginning next year (2007). The old accounting software, Peachtree, is being
used in parallel with the new accounting software until ENTRO is fully satisfied with the new
accounting software to record and process financial transactions. Staff of ENTRO have received
the required training on both of the accounting softwares.

According to the work program of ENTRO, the financial manual will be revised in calendar year
2007 to reflect changes in recent years.

                                        Internal Control
Internal control comprises the entire system of control, financial or otherwise, established by
management in order to (a) carry out the project activities in an orderly and efficient manner, (b)
ensure adherence to policies and procedures; and (c) safeguard and the assets of the project and
secure as far as possible the completeness and accuracy of the financial and other records.

The project is expected to design and install internal control systems which will help the
management of the project in achieving the project objectives in an orderly and efficient manner.
Since the project will not have an internal audit section, the control systems to be designed
should compensate for the non-existence of the internal audit. Thus, the main focus of the
internal control is placed on the following:



                                                                                                 47
      Segregation of duties;
      Physical control of assets;
      Authorization and approval;
      Clear channels of command;
      Arithmetic and accounting accuracy;
      Integrity and performance of staff at all levels;
      Supervision.

In order to further strengthen its internal control system, ENTRO will establish an Internal Audit
Unit in calendar year 2007.

                       Fund Flows and Disbursement Arrangements
                                        Funds flow
ENTRO will open a Designated Account (DA) in US dollars at a commercial Bank on terms and
conditions that are satisfactory to the Bank for the receipt of grant proceeds and will
communicate banking details to the World Bank. The DA will be managed by ENTRO. The
authorized amount of the DA will be US$250,000

From the DA, ENTRO will advance a reasonable amount (estimated to be USD 5,000 during
appraisal) to each of the three countries’ flood coordinators as a revolving fund to cover
operating costs. The revolving fund will be replenished on submission of utilization report and
original supporting documents. ENTRO will issue a one page guideline, acceptable to the Bank,
on how to manage the revolving fund. Any other payment, which could not be made from the
revolving fund, will be paid from the DA. ENTRO will maintain original supporting documents
at its Head Quarters.

                                     Disbursement Methods
The project will start with the disbursement methods based on designated Account Advance,
Direct Payment and Special Commitment. At the beginning of the project, the designated
account will be replenished on the basis of statements of expenditures. It is possible to use the
interim un-audited financial reports for the replenishment of the DA after the Bank is satisfied
with the adequacy of the financial arrangements.

                             Minimum Value of Applications
The minimum value for Direct Payment and Special Commitment will be USD 50,000.

                              Reporting on Use of Grant Proceeds
The supporting documentation for reporting eligible expenditures paid from the designated
account should be a summary report of the Statements of Expenditure (SOEs) and records
evidencing eligible expenditures for payments against contracts valued above USD 100,000 for
goods, USD 100,000 for consulting firms, and USD 50,000 for individual consultants.
The supporting documentation for direct payment should be records evidencing eligible
expenditures (copies of receipt, supplier’s invoices, etc).
The project will submit a bank statement and a reconciliation of the designated account together
with the withdrawal application at least on quarterly basis.


                                                                                               48
All supporting documentation for SOEs will be retained at ENTRO and must be made available
for review by periodic World Bank review missions and external auditors.

The format of the interim un-audited financial report is attached.

Counterpart Funding
ENTRO and the three beneficiary countries will provide contribution in-kind amounting to USD
600,000. In-kind contribution will include office space, staff time, etc.

Table C: Allocation of Credit proceeds


                 Category                   Amount ($ million)               Financing
                                                                            Percentages
Equipment                                           0.67                        100
Consultancy                                         1.92                        100
Workshop and Training                               0.45                        100
Operation and maintenance cost                      0.33                        100
Unallocated                                         0.11                        100
Total                                               3.48                        100

The project will be implemented over a period of three (3) years, which includes the estimated
time for establishment of accommodation for the RFCU, mobilization of consultants and for the
sourcing and delivery of equipment. The yearly disbursement is expected to be as below:

      Calendar Year          Disbursement ($ million)          Fiscal Year         Disbursement ($
                                                                                       million)
          2007                          0.30                         2007               0.10
          2008                          1.30                         2008               0.85
          2009                          1.40                         2009               1.35
          2010                          0.48                         2010               1.18




                                                                                                49
                                   Reporting and Monitoring
According to the financial manual of ENTRO, quarterly and annual financial statements will be
produced. The statements mainly include statement of cash receipts and payments, budget
utilization and trial balance. These statements are presented to management of ENTRO and to
the external auditors for review. ENTRO produces regular financial reports on timely basis to be
used by various stakeholders, including the Bank.

For the grant, ENTRO will produce Interim Un-audited Financial Reports (IFRs) and will submit
the IFRs to the Bank 45 days after the end of each quarter. At a minimum, the financial reports
must include the sources and uses of funds, expenditures by main expenditure classifications,
beginning and ending cash balances and other supporting schedules. The formats of the IFRs are
attached.

The financial year of ENTRO is from 1 January to 31 December.

                                          External Audit
In order to enhance the credibility of the financial statements, the annual financial statements are
subject to external audit. The annual financial statements of ENTRO have been audited by an
independent audit firm. Currently, there are no outstanding reports. The audit will be carried out
in accordance with international standards issued by the International Federation of Accountants
(IFAC). The terms of reference for the external audit had been cleared by the Bank for other
Trust Funds and that will be applicable for this Grant as well. The annual audited financial
statements, along with the management letter, will be submitted to NBTF not later than six
months after the end of the fiscal year. According to the audit policy of the Bank, external
auditors are expected to issue a single audit opinion on the consolidated financial statements of
ENTRO, including financial transactions of the Grant.

                                           Action Plan
       Action to be taken              Expected completion         Responsibility
                                       date
1      Recruitment of one              End of May 2007             ENTRO
       additional finance officer to
       strengthen the Finance
       Department of ENTRO
2      Issuance of one page            End of April 2007           ENTRO
       guideline on how to mange
       the revolving funds to be
       established in each of the
       three countries




                                                                                                 50
                                           Conditions
None

                                    Financial covenants
ENTRO shall submit audited project financial statements no later than six months after the close
of each fiscal year. ENTRO will submit IFRs 45 days after the end of each calendar year.

                                          Supervision plan
Considering the nature of the project, the Bank’s supervision mission should be as regular as
possible. Each year, there will be at least two main supervision missions




                                                                                                51
                                                                           Attachment 1-

                       Formats of Interim Un-audited Financial Reports


                    (a) Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)
            Flood preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile (FPEW I)
                                  Sources and Uses of fund
                               For the Quarter ending ………
                                           In US$

                                    Current Quarter           Cumulative to-date
Opening cash balance

Add: Sources
    •   World Bank
    •   ENTRO contribution
    •   Countries
        contribution

Cash Available
Less: Uses of funds
   •    Goods/equipments
   •    Consultancy
   •    Workshop and
        training
   • Operating Cost
Total Expenditures
Cash available less
expenditures

Closing cash balance




                                                                                     52
                        (b) Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO)
                Flood preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile (FPEW I)
                                      Sources and Uses of fund
                                   For the Quarter ending ………
                                               In US$



Project Component         Actual           Planned            Variance         PAD provision
                     Curre Cumul       Current Cumula      Curren Cumul Origi        Revised
                       nt      ative   Quarter   tive to     t     ative to nal
                     Quarte to date               date     Quarte   date
                       r                                     r
Regional
Coordination
Pilot Flood
Preparedness and
Emergency Response
Flood Forecasting,
Warning and
Communication
System
Total




                                                                                      53
                               Annex 8: Procurement
               Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning - Phase 1
                                        (FPEW I)


(A) General

Procurement for the proposed project would be carried out in accordance with the World Bank’s
“Guidelines: Procurement under IBRD Loans and IDA Credits” dated May 2004; and
“Guidelines: Selection and Employment of Consultants by World Bank Borrowers” dated May
2004, and the provisions stipulated in the Legal Agreement. The general description of various
items under different expenditure category is described below and summarized. For each
contract to be financed by the grant, the different procurement methods or consultant selection
methods, the need for prequalification, estimated costs, prior review requirements, and time
frame are agreed between ENTRO and the Bank project team in the Procurement Plan. The
Procurement Plan will be updated at least annually or as required to reflect the actual project
implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity.

Procurement of Goods: The grant will fund hardware and software to enable establishment of
the RFCU. It will also fund hardware and software to enable piloting of various technologies and
approaches to data collection and warning message dissemination as a precursor to upgrade of
existing flood forecast and warning capabilities across the EN. Standard World Bank
procurement documents will be followed. Goods contracts with estimated value of equal or more
than US$150,000 will be procured through international competitive bidding (ICB) following the
procedures described under sections 2.1-2.65 of the Procurement Guidelines. Goods contracts
estimated value of less than US$150,000 shall be through National Competitive Bidding (NCB)
following procedures that are consistent with the Bank’s Guidelines. Standard NCB documents
satisfactory to the Bank must be used for this method. If standard procurement documents of
countries are not satisfactory to the Bank, standard ICB documents shall be adopted and used for
NCB method. UN IAPSO could be approached for procurement of office equipment, computers
and vehicles not exceeding USD 100,000 per contract. Shopping shall be used for procurement
of goods estimated to cost less than USD 50,000.

Selection of Consultants: Consultancy services shall include flood risk mapping, hydrological
modeling, and Technical Assistance. Consulting services through firms estimated to cost USD
100,000 or more per contract will be procured through QCBS. Small Consultants’ Services with
an estimated value of less than US$100,000 equivalent for firms may be selected on the basis of
Consultants’ Qualifications (CQS). Individual consultants will be selected on competitive basis
(IC). Single Source Selection can be used for services that meet the requirement of section 3.9 of
the guidelines. Short lists of consultants for services estimated to cost less than $ 200,000
equivalent per contract may be composed entirely of national consultants from Ethiopia, Sudan
and Egypt.

Workshops, Trainings and Study Visits: The grant will fund regional workshops, training
exercises and study visits to centers and sites that provide relevant learning opportunities for
technical specialists and senior managers. The recipient shall carry out the workshops, training
activities and study visits on the basis of programs, which shall have been approved by the Bank
and which shall, inter alia, identify the:
(a) Workshop/training/study visit program envisaged;
(b) Personnel to attend the workshop/training/study visits;
(c) Selection method of institutions conducting such workshops/training/study visits;
(d) Duration of the workshop/training/study visit; and
(e) Estimated detailed cost of the workshop/training/study visit.

Procurement Processing: ENTRO shall have the overall responsibility for managing the
procurements and ensuring that procurement is done in accordance with grant agreement as
documented in the procurement plan. ENTRO will carry out and be responsible for all ICB
procurement. NFPIs shall be delegated to handle NCB procurements after conducting a capacity
assessment and confirming that they have the capacity to carry out the procurement. The NFPIs
will carry out all shopping procurement under ENTRO’s supervision. Procurement of
consultants’ services shall be carried out by the NFPIs under ENTRO’s supervision, according to
the Bank’s guidelines using standard documentation.

Procurement and Financial arrangements for the National Focal Point Institutions and
National Institutions: Procurement for National Institutions (NI) will be done by the National
Focal Points Institutions (NFPIs) in their respective countries under ENTRO’s supervision and
approval. ENTRO will conduct assessment of procurement capacity of each NFPIs. The
assessment shall be reviewed and approved by the World Bank. ENTRO shall produce detailed
instructions for NFPIs on procurement and financial arrangement with a detailed list of goods
and consultants services to be procured.

ENTRO’s national office coordinators will be given a petty cash of $5000. This will be
replenished periodically by ENTRO upon submission of relevant expenditure document by
NFPIs and approval of ENTRO.

NFPIs shall sign contracts upon ENTRO’s approval. Payments to contractors and consultants
shall be made directly from the ENTRO’s designated account upon submission of invoices (and
shipment documents for goods) certified and approved by NFPIs.

(B) Procurement Capacity

A procurement assessment of ENTRO was conducted by the procurement specialist of the World
Bank office in March 2006 and updated in December 2006. Recommendations of the assessment
have been addressed by ENTRO and are reflected in the table below. The risks identified during
the assessment include limitation of capacity in procurement processing and challenges in
coordinating and managing the procurement activities in the three countries.

Procurement actions under this grant are well within the type and size generally performed by
ENTRO. Key ENTRO staff, the Procurement Officer, including the Accountant, has attended
Bank basic procurement training at the Country Office (September 2002). ENTRO is receiving
advice and support on procurement actions through the World Bank’s Country Office as and
when needed and has hired a procurement specialist to assist the Procurement Officer (PO) of



                                                                                             55
ENTRO as per the recommendations of the World Bank. Moreover, a time-bound action plan for
further procurement enhancement has been agreed with ENTRO, as below.


No      Expected outcome /              Estimated Start
.       Activity Description            Duration Date            Comments

1.      Employment of Procurement In process         08/2006     This position will be financed
        Assistant                                                through     JMP      trust    fund
                                                                 (TF055685)
2.      Creation of permanent tender In process      On          Due to the regional specific of
        committee at ENTRO                           going       the program each tender
                                                                 committee for different tenders
                                                                 is created on case by case basis.
                                                                 Two members (out of 6-7) of
                                                                 each committee are permanent.
                                                                 Chairperson     is    a     Project
                                                                 Coordinator for relevant project.
3.      Finalize   the   Procurement In process      09/2006     Final draft has been prepared.
        Manual                                                   An independent international
                                                                 consultant has been hired
                                                                 (through     Finnish     bi-lateral
                                                                 funds) to review the draft.
4.      Additional needs for training In process     1st         Procurement training will be a
        to be assessed and conducted                 quarter     part of ENTRO training needs
        as required                                  2007        currently being assessed by an
                                                                 independent consultant (financed
                                                                 through Finnish bi-lateral funds).
                                                                 Procurement Officer will get
                                                                 additional training (possibly
                                                                 through NBTF).


4. Staff. Three (3) core staff (long term consultants other than the Regional Flood Coordinator
who is already in place) will be hired to run the proposed RFCU (until such time it is operated
from Addis). Additional administrative staff will be needed when the RFCU will be shifted to
Khartoum. These positions will be advertised within the Eastern Nile region. Recruitment
procedures will be on the basis of competition and follow standard World Bank procedures
established for such situations.

One finance management staff with procurement experience would be employed at ENTRO
initially at its head quarter in Addis Ababa. After transition to Khartoum separate procurement
and finance staff (even a finance-cum-procurement staff in case it is possible to get one) will be
recruited who would be primarily responsible for handling procurement under the project at
ENTRO and monitoring and supervising the procurement activities at the NFPIs. The staff would
also be responsible for maintaining all procurement documents.



                                                                                                56
                                        Donor


                                       World
                                       Bank
                                       NBTF

                  Invoice                              Invoice
                  Payments           ENTRO             Payments




                              National Focal Point Inst
                             Manage, Supervise, Approve
                                       Works

          National Procurements                         National Institutions
           Goods, Equipments                                Consultancy




Prior Review: The World Bank will conduct a prior review of the following procurement
documentation: (i) Procurement of Goods where the contract value is equal or greater than US$
100,000; (ii) Consulting Firms where the contract value is equal or greater than US$100,000; (iii)
Individual Consultants where the contract value is equal or greater than US$50,000; and (iv) All
Direct contracting and Single Source Selection will be subject to prior review by the Bank.

Post Review. All contracts not subject to prior review will be subject to post review.

The overall project risk for procurement is Average.

(C) Procurement Plan

ENTRO, at appraisal, developed a Procurement Plan for project implementation which provides
the basis for the procurement methods. This plan has been agreed between the ENTRO and the
Project Team on January 1, 2007 and is available at ENTRO office located in Addis Ababa,
Ethiopia. It will also be available in the Project’s database and in the Bank’s external website.
The Procurement Plan will be updated in agreement with the Project Team annually or as
required to reflect the actual project implementation needs and improvements in institutional
capacity.

(D) Frequency of Procurement Supervision:

In addition to the prior review supervision to be carried out from Bank offices, the capacity
assessment of the Implementing Agency has recommended twice yearly supervision missions to
visit the field to carry out post review of procurement actions.
                                                                               Attachment 1




                                                                                               57
                                   Procurement Packages with Methods and Time Schedule

        (A) Goods/Equipments

    1                2                        3                     4                   5                   6                  7                    8      9
                                                                                                                                                          Pro.
Ref.           Contract                Estimated             Procurem            Prequalifi           Domestic           Review            Expected     Implem
No.          (Description)              Cost ($)                ent                cation             Preferen           by Bank             Bid-        enting
                                                              Method              (yes/no)               ce              (Prior /          Opening      Agency
                                                                                                      (yes/no)            Post)              Date


I           Goods
1           Procurement              20,000                 Shopping             NO                  NO                 Post               1st          NFP
            and Upgrade of                                                                                                                 Quarter
            National                                                                                                                       of 2007
            forecast center
            Egypt 8
2           Procurement              20,000                 Shopping             NO                  NO                 Post               1st          NFP
            and Upgrade of                                                                                                                 Quarter
            National                                                                                                                       of 2007
            forecast center
            Sudan9
3           Procurement              20,000                 Shopping             NO                  NO                 Post               1st          NFP
            and Upgrade of                                                                                                                 Quarter
            National                                                                                                                       of 2007
            forecast centers
            Ethiopia 10
4           Procurement &            30,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 Post               1st          NFP
            Installation of                                                                                                                Quarter
            equipment,                                                                                                                     of 2008
            tools, other
            physical inputs,
            etc required to
            development
            and implement
            plans – Sudan 11

5           Procurement &            30,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 Post               1st          NFP
            Installation of                                                                                                                Quarter
            equipment,                                                                                                                     of 2009

        8
          Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
        9
          Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
        10
           Goods required to upgrade National forecast centers include Hand tools, Computers including Net work and Software
        11
           Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses,
        communication tools ..etc.
      tools, other
      physical inputs,
      etc required to
      development
      and implement
      plans – Sudan 12
6     Procurement &               30,000                 Shopping             NO                  NO                 Post               1st           NFP
      Installation of                                                                                                                   Quarter
      equipment,                                                                                                                        of 2008
      tools, other
      physical inputs,
      etc required to
      development
      and implement
      plans –
      Ethiopia 13
7     Procurement &               30,000                 Shopping             NO                  NO                 Post               1st           NFP
      Installation of                                                                                                                   Quarter
      equipment,                                                                                                                        of 2009
      tools, other
      physical inputs,
      etc required to
      development
      and implement
      plans –
      Ethiopia14
8     Procurement of              24,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 POST               1st           ENTRO
      Vehicle -                                                                                                                         Quarter
      ENTRO                                                                                                                             of 2008
9     Procurement of              24,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 POST               2nd           NFP
      Vehicle –                                                                                                                         Quarter
      Sudan                                                                                                                             of 2007
10    Procurement of              24,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 POST               2nd           NFP
      Vehicle - Egypt                                                                                                                   Quarter
                                                                                                                                        of 2007
11    Procurement of              24,000                 NCB                  NO                  NO                 POST               2nd           NFP
      Vehicle -                                                                                                                         Quarter
      Ethiopia                                                                                                                          of 2007




     12
        Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses,
     communication tools ..etc.
     13
        Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses,
     communication tools ..etc.
     14
        Goods required to strengthen local communities to increase their preparedness for flood e.g. include Hand tools, shelters, warehouses,
     communication tools..etc.



                                                                                                                                                 59
(B) Consulting Services.




                           60
     1                2               3             4         5           6          7              8
                                                                                                Implem
Ref.       Description of         Estimated   Selection   Review     Expected     Commen        enting
No.        Assignment             Cost        Method      by Bank    Proposals    ts            Agency
                                                          (Prior /   Submission
                                                          Post)      Date
I          Consulting Firm
1          Consultancy            200,000     QCBS        Prior      September    12            ENTRO
           Service for Flood                                         2007         months
           Risk Mapping -
           Ethiopia
2          Consultancy            432,500     QCBS        Prior      September    12            ENTRO
           Service for Flood                                         2007         months
           Risk Mapping -
           Sudan

3          Consultancy            50,000      SSS         Prior      June 2007    3 months      NFP
           Service for
           installing ETA15
           Model with
           Training –Sudan
4          Consultancy            60,000      SSS         Prior      June 2007                  ENTRO
           Service for
           installing ETA16
           Model with
           Training –Ethiopia
5          Consultancy            80,000      SSS         Prior      September                  NFP/
           Service to Fine-                                          2007                       ENTRO
           tune Nile forecast
           system with
           Training –Ethiopia
6          Consultancy            40,000      SSS         Prior      December                   NFP/
           Service to provide                                        2007                       ENTRO
           Training on
           updated Systems-
           Egypt
7          Consultancy            60,000      SSS         Prior      September                  NFP
           Service to update                                         2007
           the hydrologic
           model estimation
           system in Nile
           forecast Center-
           Egypt

15
     Rainfall forecasting model
16
     Rainfall forecasting model


                                                                                           61
II     Individual
       Consultant
1      Regional Flood       140,100     IC            PRIOR   Nov 2006 30 months     ENTRO
       Coordinator
2      WR/                  90,000      IC            PRIOR   June       30 months   ENTRO
       Hydro                                                  2007
       meteorologist
3      WR/                  90,000      IC            Prior   June       30 months   ENTRO
       IT/GIS/DB                                              2007
       Specialist
4      Consultancy          50,000      IC            Post    Septembe               ENTRO
       Service for                                            r 2007
       Regional analysis
       and Studies
5      Consultancy          50,000      IC            Post    Septembe               ENTRO
       Service for                                            r 2007
       Regional analysis
       and Studies for
       future project
       implementation
6      Consultancy          42,000      IC            Post    October                NFP
       Service to train                                       2007
       Pilot communities –
       Ethiopia
7      Consultancy          42,000      IC            Post    October                NFP
       Service to train                                       2007
       Pilot Communities
       - Sudan
8      Consultacy Service Total:        IC            Post    June                   ENTRO
       for FPEW-II          50,000                            2007
       Proejct
       Implementation
       Proposal
       improvements
       (could be split up
       into two or three
       individual
       consultants)*
* any change in package would need Bank’s prior approval




                                                                                     62
                       Annex 9: Project Preparation and Supervision
           Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                         (FPEW I)

                                                  Planned                  Actual
PCN review                                           -            01/12/2005 (for the overall
                                                                           FPEW)
Initial PID to PIC                                                       05/02/2005
Initial ISDS to PIC                                                      07/26/2005
Appraisal                                                           December 26-29, 2006
Begin Grant Negotiations                                              February 23, 2007
Board/RVP approval (Grant                                               May 1, 2007
Approval)
Planned date of effectiveness                                           May 31, 2007
Planned date of mid-term review                                         October, 2008
Planned closing date                                                    March, 2010

Key institutions responsible for preparation of the project:
   (i)     The Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
   (ii)    The Federal Ministry of Water Resources, Government of Ethiopia
   (iii) The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Government of Sudan
   (iv)    The Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, Government of Egypt
   (v)

Bank staff and consultants who worked on the project included:

Name                                           Title                      Unit
E.V. Jagannathan                    Senior Water Resources               AFTNL
                                         Engineer (TTL)
Barbara Miller                       Lead Water Resources                AFTNL
                                   Specialist (Cluster Leader)
Astrid Hiller                       Senior Water Resources               AFTNL
                                            Specialist
Roxanne Hakim                        Senior Anthropologist                AFTS2
Michel Cawood                     Consultant (Flood Specialist)
Dr Selvarajan                        Consultant (Economist)
Zaure Schwade                         Operational Analyst                AFTNL
Sophie Herrmann                            Consultant                    AFTNL
Eshetu Yimer                      Senior Financial Management            AFTFM
                                            Specialist
Samuel Haile Selassie                Procurement Specialist               AFTPC

Bank funds expended to date on project preparation:
1. Bank resources:
2. Trust funds:
3. Total:


                                                                                          63
Estimated Approval and Supervision costs:
1. Remaining costs to approval:
2. Estimated annual supervision cost:




                                            64
                        Annex 10: Documents in the Project File
         Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                                     (FPEW I)

     Reference                                   Brief description of contents
NBI Overview              This document describes the NBI, which is the transitional mechanism
                          formed by the nine Nile riparian countries to promote cooperation
                          among these countries for the joint development of their shared water
                          resources.
                          The NBI has two complementary programs that are designed to realize
                          the shared vision of the riparian countries: the SVP and the SAP, which
                          are investment programs involving two or more of the riparian
                          countries. There are two subsidiary action programs—the Eastern Nile
                          SAP and the Nile Equatorial Lakes SAP.
                          Summary information is provided in Annex 1. The full document is
                          available (electronically, by e-mail) from ENTRO, Addis Ababa,
                          Ethiopia
ENSAP Project             ENSAP, whose members are Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt, has identified
Identification Document   a joint project, the IDEN Project. The project is a mix of seven
(PID)                     subprojects; the FPEW Project is one of these subprojects. The PID
                          describes in detail the seven subprojects in the IDEN as agreed in Mach
                          2001. This document provides useful background information,
                          although the nature of some of the projects has evolved. This document
                          is available (electronically, by e-mail) from ENTRO.
Project Concept           This document provides an overview of the FPEW Project concept,
                          including the strategic context, scope and focus, and potential
                          components. It is provided as Annex 2 to these terms of reference.
Overview of Flooding      This is a summary of flooding in the three countries, which has been
in Eastern Nile           prepared from a set of three documents produced by the NFCs in the
Countries                 three countries. The documents discuss nature of flooding in the
                          countries including major flood-prone areas, existing institutional
                          arrangements for flood damage mitigation, etc.
                          The summary is provided in Annex 3 and the full country reports are
                          available from ENTRO (electronic, by e-mail).
Baseline Technical        This reference is a preliminary compilation of background information
Assessment and            on the nature of floods, flood forecasting, and existing coping
Information Inventory     mechanisms in Eastern Nile countries. The background report also
                          includes an inventory of pertinent available information.
                          The full background report will be made available to short-listed firms
                          interested in submitting proposals from ENTRO (electronically, by e-
                          mail).
Baseline Social           It is planned that a preliminary social analysis of representative affected
Analysis of               communities will be undertaken before this consultancy so that the
Representative Flood-     findings can feed into project design (specifically concerning the role
prone Communities in      and organization of the community) as well as provide important input
the Eastern Nile          to the EMF and RPF.
                          The scope of work for the social analysis will be made available to
                          short-listed firms interested in submitting proposals. The full study will
                          be will be available at the time of the consultancy.
Samples of PIPs           The PIP is the client’s document which will be used to implement the
                          project. The PIP also provides input to the financier’s appraisal
                          documents. Key elements of a PIP are provided in Annex 4. Examples
                          of PIPs from other projects can be obtained from ENTRO.




                                                                                               65
                   Annex 11: Country at a Glance
Eastern Nile Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1
                             (FPEW I)




                                                                      66
67
68
69
70
71
72
                        Annex 12: Map
Flood Preparedness and Early Warning in the Eastern Nile - Phase 1
                           (FPEW I)




                                                                     73

								
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