Gender and Economic Isolation in an Era of Globalization

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					Gender and Economic Isolation
  in an Era of Globalization

         Jennifer Olmsted
       Dept. of Economics
         Drew University
       jolmsted@drew.edu
                      Globalization
• Causes
  – Technological innovation
     • Transport/manufacturing/telecommunication
  – Role of policies
     • Structural adjustment
           – Increased mobility of capital and goods (labor to a lesser extent)
• Benefits
  – Economic growth
  – Expanded choice/variety
• Risks
  – Increased volatility
  – Small countries more vulnerable to threat of economic
    isolation
     • Implications of that increased risk by gender/class
 Externally imposed restrictions
• Multi-lateral sanctions
  – Eg: Iraq/Sudan
• Unilateral
  – Eg: Cuba/Iran
• Other examples
  – Eg: Palestine – pre and post 2007
Gender and Globalization Literature
 – Reduction in trade barriers linked to rising female
   employment
    • Rise of male unemployment?
    • Women’s wages lower?
    • Types of industries that are expanding are female dominated?
 – Debate over whether globalization beneficial to women
    • Female employment = female empowerment
    • Work conditions
    • Double burden
        – Mehra and Gammage (1999) and Beneria (2003)
 – Assumption of universal trend!
    • What can an examination of sanctioned countries tell us about
      how gender and globalization interact?
 Externally Imposed Economic Isolation
• Effectiveness of sanctions in reaching policy objectives:
   – Hufbauer, Schott and Elliot (1990)
• Measuring impact on macroeconomic indicators:
   – National income
       • Iran:Torbat (2005) annual reduction of 1.1% to GDP
       • Iraq/Palestine: Olmsted (2006)
           – 50/40 % decline in per capita income in two year period respectively
       • USA: Gravity model Hufbauer and Oegg (2003)
   – Labor outcomes
       • Palestine: Ruppert-Bulmer (2003)
• Humanitarian issues: - eg poverty rates/health outcomes
       • Iraq: Garfield (1999), Niblock (2001)
       • Palestine: World Bank (2003)
           Gender and Sanctions
• Focus primarily on health/well-being outcomes
   – Maternal and infant mortality
   – Education outcomes
   – Olmsted (2006) compares Palestine and Iraq – finds minimal
     gender differences
• Minimal research on gendering of employment effects
   – Assumption that economic hardship will cause women’s labor
     force participation to rise (added worker effect)
       • Amnesty International (2004)
   – Assumption that lack of increase in employment can be explained
     by gender norms not macroeconomic conditions
       • ILO (2004)
 Effect of Sanctions on Female Employment

• Changes to Economy
   – Trade volume declines
       • Female employment may decline, depending on types of jobs they
         previously held
   – National income declines
       • Theory unclear on effect on female labor force participation
           – ‘added worker effect’ – household income declines/women’s labor force
             participation rises
           – ‘crowding out effect’ – women pushed out of labor market
• Changes in government policy
   – Difficulties maintaining programs
   – Attempts to reduce negative employment impact
             Summary of findings
• Women’s Labor force participation rate (LFP) negatively impacted
    – very little evidence of added worker effect
    – some evidence of crowding
    – Evidence that women’s employment tied to trade openness
• Return to subsistence agriculture may mask actual decline in LFP
• Less skilled/poorer women most likely to lose jobs since they are in
  traded sectors
• Some industries may become defeminized as a result of economic
  hardship
• Government employment tends to benefit educated women, not those
  losing jobs in traded sector
• Government inability to sustain programs may affect female
  employment
• Trends may vary depending on structure of local economy
• Studying Iran of particular interest since female LFP rising despite
  sanctions
Women’s Labor Force Participation (LFP) in MENA
• Trends
   – LFP lagged other parts of the world, despite rising literacy rates
   – Very low rates of women’s employment in manufacturing
       • Exceptions: Morocco, Algeria, Iran and Palestine
   – Female LFP rates rising more rapidly in MOST countries in recent
     years.
       • Closer look at Iran, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan and (Turkey) warranted
• Proposed explanations:
   – Measurement problems
   – Gender norms/Islam/Fertility
       • Tzannatos (1999) finds that Muslim and Catholic countries both have
         lower female LFP rates
   – Economic structure
       • Moghadam (1995) argues that Import Substitution policies kept
         female LFP rates low. Cites North Africa as exception
              Data Sources
• ILO – KILM
• ILO – Laborsta

• Palestine – PCBS Labor force survey
• Iran – Statistical Center Census data
TABLE 1 - FEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE (LFP)


                          LFP         LFP       CHANGE IN
      Country                  RANK        RANK
                        FEMALE      FEMALE         LFP

                          1995               2005              2005-1995
       Algeria              8.0      19      35.7        7           27.7
      Bahrain              17.0      12      29.3       11           12.3
        Egypt               9.0      16      20.1       18           11.1
         Iran              19.0      10      38.6        3           19.6
         Iraq              23.0       7      13.0       20          -10.0
        Israel             45.6       1      50.1        1            4.5
       Jordan              10.0      15      27.5       14           17.5
       Kuwait              27.0       3      49.0        2           22.0
      Lebanon              25.0       6      32.4        8            7.4
        Libya                                32.1        9
      Morocco              21.0       9      26.8       15           5.8
        Oman                9.0      16      22.7       17          13.7
     Palestinian
                           14.0      14      10.3       21          -3.7
     Territories
        Qatar              19.0      10      36.3        6           17.3
    Saudi Arabia            9.0      16      17.6       19            8.6
       Sudan               26.0       4      23.7       16           -2.3
        Syria              16.0      13      38.6        3           22.6
       Tunisia             26.0       4      28.6       12            2.6
       Turkey              45.0       2      27.7       13          -17.3
         UAE               23.0       7      38.2        5           15.2
       Yemen                                 29.7       10
     AVERAGE               20.6              29.9                    9.2

SOURCE: ILO KILM,
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/index.htm
YR




         0
             10
                   20
                        30
                             40
                                   50
                                        60
  19
    8
YR 0
  19
    8
YR 1
  19
    8
YR 2
  19
    8
YR 3
  19
    8
YR 4
  19
    8
YR 5
  19
    8
YR 6
  19
    8
YR 7
  19
    8
YR 8
  19
    8
YR 9
  19
    9
YR 0
  19
    9
YR 1
  19
    9
YR 2
  19
    9
YR 3
  19
    9
YR 4
  19
    9
YR 5
  19
    9
YR 6
  19
    9
YR 7
  19
    9
YR 8
  19
    9
YR 9
  20
    0
YR 0
  20
    0
YR 1
  20
    0
YR 2
  20
    0
YR 3
  20
    0
YR 4
  20
    0
YR 5
  20
    06
                  UAE
                  Iraq
                  Iran




                  Libya
                  Egypt




                  Oman
                  Jordan
                  Kuwait
                  Algeria




                  Tunisia
                  Bahrain




                  Morocco
                  Lebanon




                  Saudi Arabia



                  West Bank/Gaza
Table 3 - Female LFP for Iran

        1976              12.9
        1986              8.2
        1996              9.1
        2006              12.5
TABLE 2 - WOMEN'S PARTICIPATION BY SECTOR FOR AVAILABLE MENA COUNTRIES, VARIOUS YEARS

        Country             YEAR    AGRI   MANU RANK SALES PUBLC EDUC HEALTH OTHER
                                     %       %         %     %     %    %      %
        Algeria             2003    10.9    22.5  2   2.9   12.1  24.4 10.9   14.3

                            1991    0.0     5.9   7    3.8   10.0    16.3    8.2     48.8
        Bahrain
                            2001    0.1    12.1   5    5.6    7.1    13.1    7.3     49.7

                            1997    40.4    6.9    6   6.5   11.4    22.4    6.0      0.0
         Egypt
                            2003    39.0    4.8   10   6.3   12.8    22.5    7.3      0.0

                            1996    16.7   33.0   1    2.2    5.6    26.0    6.7      8.8
Iran, Islamic Republic of
                            2006    14.5   23.4   1    5.3    2.7    24.0    8.9     20.2

          Iraq              2004    32.6    6.5   9    5.1   16.3    29.8    4.5      0.0

        Jordan              2003    2.0    10.6   6    5.5    5.1    40.6    13.8    16.4

                            2002    57.1   18.5   3    3.7    3.7    13.1             0.0
       Morocco
                            2005    61.4   15.5   4    5.1   14.9                     0.0

                            1996    4.7     5.2   8    6.9   26.0    32.8     9.3     7.1
         Oman
                            2000    5.3    11.6   5    6.2    8.7    41.4    14.1     7.7

                            1996    29.0   15.2   2    8.8    5.2    27.4    7.6      4.8
 Palestinian Territories
                            2004    33.7    8.0   7    7.1    5.8    28.0    8.2      2.2

                            1997    0.0     0.4   11   1.5    5.9    21.8    7.6     51.8
         Qatar
                            2004    0.1     0.6   12   3.3    9.5    19.3    9.6     45.6

                            1999    1.0     1.2   10   0.5    2.5    40.0    8.5     36.3
     Saudi Arabia
                            2002    0.6     1.1   11   0.7    2.2    41.7    6.4     36.3

                            1994    29.4   14.5   3    2.8   14.5    29.8    2.3      3.7
 Syrian Arab Republic
                            2003    49.1    6.8   8    3.5   12.4    21.6    2.5      0.0

 United Arab Emirates       1995    0.1    12.1   4    6.5    4.4    16.4    7.2     49.3

        Yemen               1994    86.8    2.6   9    1.1    2.5    3.5     1.0      0.0

                             1996   41.9   21.1                       37.0
         World
                             2006   36.1   21.9                       42.0

SOURCES: International Labor Office (ILO) LABORSTA data available through the KILM database
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/index.htm
http://www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/strat/kilm/download/kilm04.pdf (World figures)
                       Iraq
• Micro level labor force data unavailable
• LFP rate stagnated in 1980s and 1990s
• anthropological studies
  – Cainkar (1993) and Al Ali (1995)
     • Educated women exited labor market due to
       declining wages/benefits
     • Less educated women may have been driven into
       market due to economic hardship
          Palestine: 1995 – 2003
• Female Labor Force Participation appears flat
• A closer examination of the data suggests:
   – Decline in women’s access to wage employment
       • Unpaid ag rises from 27 to 50% of all female employment
       • Less educated women’s employment declining
           – Decline in textiles/apparel sector from 14 to 8 % of all female
             employment
           – Particularly stark in Gaza – from 17 to 2 %
       • Educated women’s employment has risen
           – Government sector growing from 17 to 23%
       • Defeminization of the health care sector
           – From 10 to 5% of all female employment
           – From 50% to 14% of all health care workers
YR




         0
             10
                   20
                        30
                             40
                                   50
                                        60
  19
    8
YR 0
  19
    8
YR 1
  19
    8
YR 2
  19
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YR 3
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YR 4
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YR 5
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YR 6
  19
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YR 7
  19
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YR 8
  19
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YR 9
  19
    9
YR 0
  19
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YR 1
  19
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YR 2
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YR 3
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YR 4
  19
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YR 5
  19
    9
YR 6
  19
    9
YR 7
  19
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  19
    9
YR 9
  20
    0
YR 0
  20
    0
YR 1
  20
    0
YR 2
  20
    0
YR 3
  20
    0
YR 4
  20
    0
YR 5
  20
    06
                  UAE
                  Iraq
                  Iran




                  Libya
                  Egypt




                  Oman
                  Jordan
                  Kuwait
                  Algeria




                  Tunisia
                  Bahrain




                  Morocco
                  Lebanon




                  Saudi Arabia



                  West Bank/Gaza
YR




          0
              5
                  10
                       15
                            20
                                      25
                                             30
                                                  35
                                                       40
                                                            45
  19
YR 80
  19
YR 81
  19
YR 82
  19
     8
YR 3
  19
YR 84
  19
YR 85
  19
YR 86
  19
YR 87
  19
     8
YR 8
  19
YR 89
  19
YR 90
  19
YR 91
  19
     9
YR 2
  19
YR 93
  19
YR 94
  19
YR 95
  19
YR 96
  19
     9
YR 7
  19
YR 98
  19
YR 99
  20
YR 00
  20
     0
YR 1
  20
YR 02
  20
YR 03
  20
YR 04
  20
YR 05
  20
     06
                            Iraq
                            Iran

                            Jordan
                            West Bank/Gaza
          Palestine: 1995 – 2003
• Female Labor Force Participation appears flat
• A closer examination of the data suggests:
   – Decline in women’s access to wage employment
       • Unpaid ag rises from 27 to 50% of all female employment
       • Less educated women’s employment declining
           – Decline in textiles/apparel sector from 14 to 8 % of all female
             employment
           – Particularly stark in Gaza – from 17 to 2 %
       • Educated women’s employment has risen
           – Government sector growing from 17 to 23%
       • Defeminization of the health care sector
           – From 10 to 5% of all female employment
           – From 50% to 14% of all health care workers
 Role of Internal vs. Global Factors?
• Role of Gender norms
   – Interviews with working class women suggest that society
     becoming more accepting of women working
   – Evidence from health sector suggests defeminization
• Role of Internal policy
   – PA job creation
       • Biased in favor of educated, particularly in case of women
• Role of External policies
   – Israel:
       • closure policies made investment in WB/GS less appealing
   – US:
       • Jordan and Egypt duty free imports w/Israeli joint ventures as reward
         for participation in peace process
           – Jordan’s exports to US rise from $2 million to $567 million btw 1999 and 2003
                 Iran 1976-2006
• Female Labor Force Participation dropped after
  revolution and then rose.
• A closer examination of the data suggests:
      • Iranian manufacturing sector important, but declining
        employer of women
      • Carpet weaving experienced decline and then rise in
        employment btw 1976 and 2006
      • Low and declining rates of public sector employment
          – Educated women benefit most from public sector
      • High rate of informal sector employment
Table 3 - Female LFP for Iran

        1976              12.9
        1986              8.2
        1996              9.1
        2006              12.5
                              Iran
• Female Labor Force Participation dropped after
  revolution and then rose.
• A closer examination of the data suggests:
      • Iranian manufacturing sector important, but declining
        employer of women (33 to 23%)
      • Carpet weaving experienced decline and then rise in
        employment btw 1976 and 2006
      • Low and declining rates of public sector employment
          – Educated women benefit most from public sector
      • High rate of informal sector employment
 Role of Internal vs. Global Factors?
• Role of Internal Policies:
   – Focus of existing literature on ideological shift after
     Islamic Revolution
      • F. Moghadam 1994, Alizadeh 2003, V. Moghadam 2003,
        Nomani and Behdad 2006
• Role of Global Factors?
   – Sanctions
      • Beginning in 1979 US imposed sanctions on Iran
   – Migration Patterns
      • Post-revolution brain drain
      • Afghan war led to Iran becoming host to large number of
        refugees
                       Sanctions:
• Although overall impact on national income small,
  manufacturing sector particularly affected by sanctions
   – 50% of female employment was in manufacturing pre-revolution
       • Carpet industry employed large numbers of young, uneducated
         Iranian women
       • Data suggest the number of women in this industry declined from
         606,646 to 337,436 between 1976 and 1986 (Karimi forthcoming)
• 30% decline in female carpet industry jobs (conservative
  estimate) could lead to 2 percentage point drop in female
  LFP (eg from 12.9 to 10.9)
                    Migration:
• Iran suffered large high brain drain
  – Carrington and Detragiache (1998)
     • 20% exodus of educated women could explain further 0.4%
       drop, due to educated women’s relatively high LFP rates.

• Influx of Afghan refugees
  – Not clear how/whether Afghan refugees incorporated
    into census
  – Karimi (forthcoming) argues they drove down wages in
    low skill markets
                  Conclusions
• Experience of “Globalization” not universal
   – Iraq, Iran and Palestine three communities with reduced
     access to international markets in recent years


• Critics of globalization ignore far worse fate –
  economic isolation
• Sanctions literature has focused mainly on
  consumption and economic well-being, but labor
  implications also important to consider
       Conclusions continued
    Explaining female employment
• Trade restrictions may have gender/class
  implications
   – Less educated women (and men) often more dependent
     on traded sector
• Minimal evidence of added worker effect
• Some evidence of crowding out
• Emphasis on ideological/gender norm supply side
  explanation of female labor force participation
  may ignore macroeconomic conditions
• Need for considerable more research
                 Further research:
• Single country time series analysis of female labor force
  participation, to link employment and macro trends
   – Further analysis of Iran particularly interesting – rising
     employment despite shrinking government sector and sanctions
• Microeconomic analysis of wages
   – Hypothesis:
       • Shift in size of education/sex wage gap:
           – preliminary analysis of Palestinian data suggests this may not be the case
             (wage rigidities?)
• Analysis of income distribution
   – Hypothesis:
       • Household income inequality worsening due to:
           – Rising number of educated two earner families
           – Decline in access of less skilled women to wage labor
   Further research continued:
• More rigorous cross-country econometric study
   – Challenges:
      • Consistent measure of female labor force participation
      • Consistent measure of economic openness
          – Need to distinguish self-imposed isolation from externally
            imposed
• Regional study of the post peace process
  economies of Jordan/Egypt/Palestine/Israel
• Theoretical exploration of relationship between
  gender norms and economic conditions
   – Gender norms can shape economic outcomes
   – Economic outcomes can (re)shape gender norms
• Questions?

• Contact information:
• jolmsted@drew.edu

				
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