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Preliminary CO2 Demand Analysis for the Powder River Basin

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 38

									         Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute
         Department of Geology and Geophysics
                University of Wyoming



Preliminary CO2 Demand Analysis
for the Powder River Basin

       Presentation to Wyoming Pipeline Authority
                       Jan. 24, 2006
                                by
                         J. Michael Boyles
                         Klaas van ’t Veld
EORI’s Goals
Assist operators to help improve oil production in
Wyoming fields through research, technology transfer
and project assistance

   – Improve existing production practices
      • Increase efficiency of water floods
      • Identify bypassed pay


   – Assist with evaluation of potential EOR projects
     for Wyoming fields
Goal – More CO2 EOR in Wyoming

    Convert more of Wyoming’s CO2 from a waste gas
     to a resource

    Help Wyoming operators with CO2 field evaluations
     – Very effective EOR technique
        • Recovers additional 8% to > 15% of OOIP
        • Swells oil
        • Lowers viscosity
     – Capital intensive
     – Higher operating costs
What is EORI Doing about CO2
    Characterizing Wyoming oil fields
     – Building integrated database for fields and reservoirs
       (WGA, O&G, SPE, DOE ….)
     – Analyzing reservoir performance (RMS-AAPG talk)
    Building reservoir models
     – Analyzing reservoirs currently being flooded
     – Will predict CO2-EOR response for reservoirs not
       currently being flooded with CO2
    Developing scoping tools
     – Simple tools to evaluate “what if” scenarios
     – Based upon Wyoming reservoir characteristics
Current CO2 Situation in Wyoming
      CO2 Sources
         – La Barge
                 • Sales          250 MMSCFD at high pressure
                 • Venting        210 MMSCFD at low pressure
         – Madden
                 • Venting         55 MMSCFD at low pressure
      Existing pipeline*
         – Current distribution
                 •   Salt Creek   105 MMSCFD
                 •   Baroil        40 MMSCFD
                 •   Rangely       80 MMSCFD
                 •   Monell        30 MMSCFD
         – Potential additional distribution to PRB
                 • Easy            +75 MMSCFD
                 • Possible       +350 MMSCFD

      * Towler, in press
Current CO2 Pipeline


                                             Powder
                                              River
                                              Basin
                                         Salt Creek
                  Madden
                                     16 in


   La Barge     20 in      Bairoil
        24 in
                  Monell

                Rangely
        Enhanced Oil Recovery Institute
        Department of Geology and Geophysics
               University of Wyoming



Preliminary CO2 Demand Analysis
for the Powder River Basin
Study Area




  Powder River Basin
Powder River Basin




                     50 miles
Initial Scope


   Reservoirs                  Cum production
     Minnelusa                   600 MMBO*
     Sussex / Shannon            365 MMBO*
     Muddy                       266 MMBO*




    * IHS Production Database
Rationale

– Near the end of CO2 trunk line
   • Extra capacity
– Several big fields in basin that would support
  development of needed infrastructure
   • Hartzog Draw, Hilight, Raven Creek,
     House Creek, Big Muddy
– Younger fields that have complete production data
– Structurally simple traps
– Stratigraphic heterogeneities are understandable
Work Plan
1.   Identify “promising” fields

2.   Screen for miscibility

3.   Estimate CO2-EOR response

4.   Screen for profitability
1. Identify “Promising” Fields
       99 Fields (120 field-reservoir combinations)
    –      Each has cum oil       >4    MMBO
    –      Combined cum oil     1,300   MMBO
    –      Combined OOIP        3,200   MMBO
       Potential size of prize, assuming
    –      all pass miscibility screen
    –      all yield extra 10% of OOIP CO2-EOR response
    –      all pass profitability screen




           320 MMBO
    2. Screen for Miscibility
   Rule-of-thumb approach
    – API cutoff
    – Depth cutoff
    – Too simple for accurate forecasts
   EORI approach
    – Measured MMP
    – Estimate based on oil composition and temperature
    – Estimate based on API and temperature
3. Estimate CO2-EOR Response
   Rule-of-thumb approach
    – 8 to 15 % of OOIP
   Other industry-standard approaches
    – Scaled response (Kinder Morgan tool)
       • Based on field analogs (San Andres and Morrow)
    – CO2 Prophet (DOE)
       • Based on simulation of Louisiana fluvial-deltaic
         reservoir
   EORI approach
    – Scaled response (“EORI Tool”)
       • Based on simulation of Wyoming reservoirs
     4. Screen for Profitability
   Industry-standard approaches
    – Use KM tool with built-in price, cost assumptions
    – Use CO2 Prophet adding price, cost assumptions
   EORI approach
    – Use “EORI tool” with flexible price, cost assumptions
Why an EORI Tool?
   Major Economic Screening Factors
    – Cost of pipeline
        • Distance to trunk line
    – Cost of gas plant
        • Capital cost
        • Operating costs
        • Quantity recycled over time
    – Cost of CO2
        • Price
        • Quantity purchased over time
    – Oil revenues
        • Price
        • Quantity produced over time
               KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Tensleep
                               Oil Production

          14

          12                   Predicted
          10
Mbo/day




           8
                                                         Actual
           6

           4

           2

           0
               0     2     4         6          8   10            12
                                    Ye ar
             KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Tensleep
                                  CO2 Purchase s

           300


           250

                              Predicted
           200
mmcf/day




           150
                                                       Actual
           100


            50


             0
                 0   2    4                6       8            10   12
                                          Ye ar
             KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Tensleep
                         Cumulativ e Ne t Cash Flow (Re lativ e to Base line )
      200



      150
                 Based on 1995                                       Predicted
                 KM cost data
      100
MM$




       50

                                                                         Actual
        0


       -50



      -100
             0       2            4             6             8             10    12
                                               Ye ar
KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Tensleep
                             PV Profit Afte r Tax
           160

           140
                          Predicted
           120

           100
                                    Based on 1995
            80
                                    KM cost data
     MM$




            60
                                       Actual
            40

            20

             0

           -20

           -40
              0.0   0.1       0.2       0.3         0.4   0.5
                          Nominal Discount Rate
  KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Darwin Madison
                            Oil Production
          5.0

          4.5               Predicted
          4.0

          3.5

          3.0
Mbo/day




          2.5                      Actual
          2.0

          1.5

          1.0

          0.5

          0.0
                0   2   4   6           8    10   12   14
                                   Ye ar
    KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Darwin Madison
                                   CO2 Purchase s
           100

            90

            80
                             Predicted
            70
mmcf/day




            60

            50

            40

            30                                           Actual
            20

            10

             0
                 0   2   4           6        8     10        12   14
                                          Ye ar
 KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Darwin Madison
                        Cumulativ e Ne t Cash Flow (Re lativ e to Base line )
      60

      50        Based on 1995                     Predicted
      40        KM cost data
      30

      20
MM$




      10

       0

      -10

      -20
                                                    Actual
      -30
            0       2        4           6           8           10             12   14
                                                 Ye ar
KM Prediction: Lost Soldier-Darwin Madison
                                PV Profit Afte r Tax
             60
                                      Based on 1995
             50
                                      KM cost data
             40


             30                 Predicted
       MM$




             20


             10
                                               Actual
               0


             -10


             -20
                0.0   0.1       0.2      0.3           0.4   0.5
                            Nominal Discount Rate
                   KM Prediction: Wertz-Tensleep
                                        Oil Production
          18

          16

          14                    Predicted
          12
Mbo/day




          10

           8
                                            Actual
           6

           4

           2

           0
               0       2    4      6        8           10   12   14   16   18
                                                Ye ar
                 KM Prediction: Wertz-Tensleep
                                          CO2 Purchase s
           250



           200           Predicted
mmcf/day




           150



           100
                                         Actual

            50



             0
                 0   2      4        6        8           10   12   14   16   18
                                                  Ye ar
            KM Prediction: Wertz-Tensleep
                         Cumulativ e Ne t Cash Flow (Re lativ e to Base line )
      140
                                             Predicted
      120
                Based on 1995
      100

       80
                KM cost data
       60                                    Actual
       40
MM$




       20

        0

      -20

      -40

      -60

      -80
            0       2     4         6         8           10      12         14   16   18
                                                  Ye ar
KM Prediction: Wertz-Tensleep
                                   PV Profit Afte r Tax
           120


           100
                              Predicted
            80

                                     Based on 1995
            60
                                     KM cost data
     MM$




            40


            20


             0


           -20
                    Actual
           -40
              0.0       0.1        0.2       0.3          0.4   0.5
                               Nominal Discount Rate
What about Economies of Scale?
     Major Economic Screening Factors
      – Cost of pipeline
          • Distance to trunk line
      – Cost of CO2 gas plant
          • Capital cost
          • Operating costs
          • Quantity recycled over time
      – Cost of CO2
          • Price
          • Quantity purchased over time
      – Oil revenues
          • Price
          • Quantity produced over time
Two Phases
   Initial estimate of CO2-EOR response to
    define CO2 trunk pipeline route
    – Individual field model
    – Central gas recycling plant model
   Detailed analysis of CO2-EOR response
    and economics given CO2 trunk pipeline
    route
    – Individual field model
    – Central gas recycling plant model
CO2-EOR Potential Recovery




3 Mile radius
CO2-EOR Potential Recovery




6 Mile radius
CO2-EOR Potential Recovery




9 Mile radius
Bottom Line
 Wyoming is blessed with cheap CO2
 The distribution system is not at capacity
 CO2-EOR could substantially increase
  production in the PRB


    So where do we go from here?
    Current and Future Work
 Wyoming reservoirs are unique
 Need accurate, WY-specific forecasting models
    – Statistical analysis of past production
    – Research into CO2-EOR response
    – Research into CO2-EOR economics (including
      potential sequestration credits)
 Working with Pipeline Authority
 Building database and knowledge repository
  on Wyoming oil fields
We Need Your Help
 Contact us with suggestions /
  recommendations
 Please let us know if you have data that
  might help
    – Oil/gas analyses
    – Oil samples
    – Special core analyses
    – Detailed production data (including
      pressure)
    – Detailed cost data
Acknowledgments
   Wyoming Oil and Gas Commission
    – Production data, field files, technical support
   IHS
    – Production data and well information
   Merit
    – Data on Bairoil CO2 floods

								
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