Local Market Update: Toronto

							TREB Market Update
Presented by

Richard Silver
President, Toronto Real Estate Board
        Home Ownership has Remained Affordable
TREB Affordability Indicator                                                    Share of the
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home             average hhld
55%                                                                            income in the
50%
                                                                                 GTA going
                                                                               toward major
45%
                                                                              home ownership
40%                                                                            payments has
35%                                                                              remained
                                                                              affordable from
30%
                                                                                  a lending
25%                                                                             perspective.

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
       Record or Near-Record Sales this Year
TorontoMLS Sales Outlook
 95,000                                                            We will see
 90,000                                                         between 93,000




                                             93,000

                                                      90,000
                                    89,666
 85,000                                                        and 95,000 sales
 80,000                                                         this year under
 75,000                                                        the TREB market
 70,000                                                           area, with a
 65,000                                                         slight pull-back
 60,000                                                        in 2013 as higher
 55,000                                                           prices/rates
 50,000                                                               erode
                                                                  affordability.
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
     Sales Could be Higher w/o the Toronto LTT
TorontoMLS Sales: City of Toronto
                                    LTT     Recession
4,000
                                             BoC Rate
3,500
                                              Hikes
3,000

2,500

2,000
                                          Reduction to
1,500                                       30-Year
                                          Amortization.

Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
       Supply (or Lack Thereof) has been a Big
                                         Issue
GTA Months of Inventory (Seasonally Adjusted)
7
                        Months of Inventory (MOI)               Months of
6                       Average MOI: Jan. 2000 - Dec. 2007    Inventory well-
5                                                               below pre-
4
                                                             recession norm.

3

2

1



Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
            Signs of Relief Appeared this Spring
TREB New Listings (Seasonally Adjusted)
 18,000
                                           Strong growth in
                                            new listings this
 16,000                                    year, especially in
 14,000                                           May.

 12,000

 10,000

  8,000

  6,000


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
      More Supply will Equal a Slower Pace of Price Growth in 2013
TorontoMLS Average Price Outlook
$550,000                                 +8.5%                                  +4.0%
                                                                           More supply will
$500,000




                                                                 525,000
                                                                            equal slower




                                                       505,000
$450,000
                                                                           price growth in




                                             465,112
$400,000
                                                                                2013.
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
          Population Growth will Drive Long-Term Sales Growth
Historic Immigration into GTA
130,000
110,000                                                 Immigration
 90,000                                                 continues to
 70,000                                               drive population
 50,000                                                growth in the
 30,000                                                     GTA.
 10,000
-10,000
-30,000
-50,000




Source: Statistics Canada