Charts Financial Stability Report

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					Chapter 1
Five-year CDS premiums
Basis points
    1 600

    1 400

    1 200

    1 000

      800

      600

      400

      200

         0
         jul-08   jan-09       jul-09         jan-10         jul-10      jan-11        jul-11

                      Greece        Ireland            Portugal       Spain


Chart: 1:1.                                                                   Source: Reuters EcoWin
Interest rates on ten-year government bonds
Per cent
       18

       16

       14

       12

       10

         8

         6

         4

         2
         jul-08   jan-09       jul-09         jan-10         jul-10      jan-11          jul-11

                      Greece        Ireland            Portugal       Spain


Chart: 1:2.                                                                       Source: Reuters EcoWin
Yield curve for Greek government
bonds
Per cent
   30



   25



   20



   15



   10



    5



    0
               2 år   3 år       5 år     7 år           10 år   15 år

                             2010-12-30     2011-05-24

Diagram 1:3.                                                     Källa Reuters Ecowin
Refinancing needs of countries and
banks for 2011
Percentage of GDP




  Chart: 1:4        Sources: Dealogic, Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Exposure of international banks
 Index, second quarter 2008=100, euro
    120


    110


    100


     90


     80


     70


     60


     50
      jun-07   dec-07   jun-08   dec-08    jun-09     dec-09       jun-10         dec-10

                        Greece   Ireland   Portugal     Spain

Chart 1:5.                                            Source: Bank for International Settlements
Government debt as a percentage of GDP (vertical axis)
and the difference between the nominal interest
rate and nominal GDP growth (horizontal axis)
Per cent




Chart 1:6.                              Sources: IMF, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Signs of search for yield
Left scale per cent and right scale index
    18                                                                                         270

    16                                                                                         240

    14                                                                                         210

    12                                                                                         180

    10                                                                                         150

     8                                                                                         120

     6                                                                                         90

     4                                                                                         60

     2                                                                                         30

     0                                                                                         0
     jan-09       jul-09           jan-10            jul-10           jan-11              jul-11

                     Credit spread high-yield bonds - United States, (left scale)
                     Commodities (right scale)
                     Equity index for emerging markets (right scale)

Chart 1:7.                                                     Sources: Reuters Ecowin and The Economist
International stress index




Chart 1:8.              Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Bloomberg and the Riksbank
European banks’ bond issuance
EUR billion
    400

    350

    300

    250

    200

    150

    100

     50

       0
             Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1   Q2   Q3   Q4   Q1    Q2
                   2007                2008                2009                2010            2011
                  Covered bonds       Unsecured bonds          Government guaranted bonds

Chart 1:9.                                                                                   Source: Dealogic
Comparison of 5-year CDS premiums
for banks
Basis points




Chart: 1:10.                    Source: Bloomberg
Maturity profile of bonds issued by
European banks
EUR billion
   120


   100


     80


     60


     40


     20


      0
              5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
                    2011                    2012                        2013

                  Covered bonds      Unsecured bonds      Government guaranted bonds

Chart 1:11.                                                                       Source: Dealogic
Central banks’ balance sheets
Percentage of GDP
    30



    25



    20



    15



    10



     5



     0
         07         08               09            10             11                   12

              ECB        Bank of England   Federal Reserve   The Riksbank

Chart 1:12.                                                     Sources: National central banks
The risk premium on the interbank
market
Basis points
  100

   90

   80

   70

   60

   50

   40

   30

   20

   10

     0
     jan-08    jul-08      jan-09    jul-09    jan-10   jul-10      jan-11        jul-11

               United States        United Kingdom      Euro Area            Sweden

Chart 1:13.                                                Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Bloomberg
Maturity structures for non-financial
companies’ syndicated loans
SEK billion
    250




    200




    150




    100




     50




       0
              11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   24   25

Chart 1:14.                                                                     Source: Dealogic
Maturity structures for non-financial
companies’ market funding
SEK billion




Chart 1:15.                             Source: Dealogic
US corporate bond issuance
USD billions
   1200



   1000



    800



    600



    400



    200



       0
              96   97   98   99   00     01   02   03     04     05   06    07   08   09   10   11

                                       Investment grade        High-yield

Chart 1:16.                                                                                Source: SIFMA
Difference between the short-term
interbank rate and the Riksbank’s repo rate
Basis points
    70


    60


    50


    40


    30


    20


    10


     0
      2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011     2012



Chart R1:1.                                                           Source: Reuters Ecowin
Grey area in detail
Basis points
    70


    60


    50


    40


    30


    20


    10


     0
     jan-10    apr-10   jul-10   okt-10   jan-11   apr-11           jul-11



Chart R1:1.                                                 Source: Reuters Ecowin
Monthly volatility in the difference between
the tomorrow next rate and the repo rate
Basis points
    20




    15




    10




      5




      0
       2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008       2009       2010      2011

                              IMM month    Non-IMM month

Chart R1.2.                                              Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Cost of converting long-term borrowing in
euros into Swedish kronor via a currency swap
Basis points
     60


     50


     40


     30


     20


     10


      0


    -10
       2002    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010       2011

Chart R1:3.                                                            Source: Bloomberg
Chapter 2
Lending of the Swedish banking groups
by borrower category, March 2011
 Per cent of total lending




Chart 2:1.                   Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Lending of the Swedish banking groups
by geographical area, March 2011
Per cent of total lending




Chart 2:2.                  Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Prices for single-family dwellings and
tenant-owned apartments
Index, January 2008 = 100




Chart 2:3.                  Källor: SCB, Mäklarstatstik och Valueguard AB
Household borrowing
Monthly change on an annual rate and three-month moving average,
percentage
   20

   18

   16

   14

   12

   10

     8

     6

     4

     2

     0
         02     03      04      05      06      07       08      09      10         11

              Change in borrowing    Change in borrowing, three-month moving average

Chart 2:4.                                                                    Source: The Riksbank
Households’ new loans broken down
by fixed interest period
Per cent
    100%



      80%



      60%



      40%



      20%



       0%
             96   97   98   99    00   01   02   03    04     05   06   07    08   09     10   11
                  Variable rate        Fixed rate < 5 years        Fixed rate > 5 years

Chart 2:5.                                                                          Source: The Riksbank
Lending to households and three-
month mortgage rates
Annual percentage change and per cent




Chart 2:6.                              Source: The Riksbank
Household debt and post-tax interest
expenditure
Per cent of disposable income




Chart 2:7.             Sources: The National Board of Housing, Building and Planning and Statistics Sweden
Households’ gross debts, assets and
saving as a share of disposable income
Per cent




Chart 2:8.                 Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Corporate borrowing from credit
institutions and fixed gross investment
Annual percentage change




Chart 2:9.                   Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Cororate credit gap
Per cent
     15


     10


      5


      0


     -5


   -10


   -15


   -20
          99   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07      08       09      10       11


Chart 2:10.                                       Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Interest coverage ratio in Nordic
listed companies
Ratio
     8

     7

     6

     5

     4

     3

     2

     1

     0

    -1
         03   04     05      06       07       08            09            10
                   Sweden   Denmark   Norway     Finland

Chart 2:11.                                    Sources: Bloomberg and the Riksbank
The number of bankruptcies broken
down by industry
Twelve-month moving average
   160

   140

   120

   100

     80

     60

     40

     20

      0
          95           97          99      01        03         05   07           09         11
              Manufacturing                 Construction             IT-telecom
              Transport                     Property management      Services
              Wholesale and retail trade    Hotel and restaurants

Chart 2:12.                                                                        Source: Statistics Sweden
Transaction volumes on the Swedish
commercial property market
SEK billion
    160


    140


    120


    100


     80


     60


     40


     20


       0
              99   00   01   02     03     04    05      06     07        08   09     10
                             Swedish investors        Foreign investors

Chart 2:13.                                                                         Source: Savills
Average yield levels for modern office
premises in city centres
Per cent
   16


   14


   12


   10


    8


    6


    4


    2


    0
        86    88     90    92   94   96    98   00   02   04    06     08     10      12
                   Stockholm    Göteborg    Malmö    Five-year government bond

Chart 2:14.                                                     Sources: Newsec and the Riksbank
   Real house prices
   Index, March 2004 = 100
      160


      150


      140


      130


      120


      110


      100


       90
              04           05             06             07             08             09             10             11
                                         Sweden          Denmark          Norway         Finland

Chart 2:15.    Sources: Bank for International Settlement, Bank of Finland, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Expected default frequency (EDF)
Per cent
    3,0



    2,5



    2,0



    1,5



    1,0



    0,5



    0,0
          05   06   07       08        09       10         11          12
                    Sweden   Denmark   Norway    Finland

Chart 2:16.                                                 Source: Moody's KMV
GDP
Annual percentage change
  15

  10

   5

   0

  -5

 -10

 -15

 -20

 -25
       99     00   01   02    03       04   05       06   07    08     09   10     11      12

                             Estonia        Latvia         Lithuania

Chart 2:17.                                                                 Source: Reuters EcoWin
Real exchange rates
Index, 2000 = 100
 140


 130


 120


 110


 100


   90


   80
        01    02   03   04        05   06    07   08       09       10        11        12
                        Estonia         Latvia         Lithuania

Chart:2:18.                                             Source: Bank for International Settlements
Households' and companies' debts in
relation to GDP
Per cent
140


120


100


  80


  60


  40


  20


   0
       95     96   97   98   99   00   01    02   03   04     05     06    07     08    09     10     11

                                   Estonia        Latvia           Lithuania

Chart 2:19.                                            Sources: The national central banks and Reuters EcoWin
Late payments
Per cent of lending
     20

     18

     16

     14

     12

     10

       8

       6

       4

       2

       0
           01     02     03      04     05       06       07       08     09      10      11            12
                Estonia (more than 60 days)                      Latvia (more than 90 days)
                Lithuania (more than 60 days)


Chart 2:20.                        Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission och Lietuvos Bankas
Chapter 3
Bank assets in relation to GDP June
2010
Per cent




Chart 3:1.            Sources: ECB, The Swiss National Bank and the Riksbank
The total assets of the major Swedish
banks, December 2010
SEK billion
    12 000


    10 000


      8 000


      6 000


      4 000


      2 000


             0
                 Handelsbanken   Nordea      SEB      Swedbank              Total

                                    Sweden   Abroad

Chart 3:2.                                             Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Breakdown of the major Swedish
banks’ profits before loan losses, 2010
Per cent




Chart 3:3.                   Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Earnings before loan losses and loan
losses in the major Swedish banks,
Mars 2011
Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices
      120


      100


       80


       60


       40


       20


         0


      -20
                                        dec-96
             dec-90


                      dec-92


                               dec-94




                                                 dec-98


                                                          dec-00


                                                                   dec-02


                                                                            dec-04


                                                                                        dec-06


                                                                                                   dec-08


                                                                                                            dec-10


                                                                                                                     dec-12
                                   Profit before loan losses                         Loan losses

Chart 3:4.                                                                               Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major swedish banks' income
Rolling four quarters, SEK billion

   250



   200



   150



   100



     50



      0
             08:3   08:4   09:1    09:2     09:3       09:4   10:1   10:2   10:3      10:4     11:1

       Other income    Net result of financial items     Net commission income     Net interest income

Chart 3:5.                                                              Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ margins on
new mortgages in Sweden
Per cent




Chart 3:6.                Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ profitability
Four-quarter moving average, per cent
    25



    20



    15



    10



     5



     0
      04:4    05:4         06:4         07:4   08:4       09:4          10:4          11:4

                     Return on equity          Average return on equity

Chart 3:7.                                                 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Swedish major banks' lending to the
public in the Baltic countries
EUR billion and per cent




Chart 3:8.                 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
   Market shares of lending in the Baltic
   countries
   Per cent




Chart 3:9.                     Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The Swedish banks' loan losses
Percentage of lending at the start of the respective quarters




Chart 3:10.                                                Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ loan losses
per quarter
SEK billion




Chart 3:11.                Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Core Tier 1 capital ratios of Swedish and
foreign banks, according to Basel II,
December 2010
Per cent




Chart 3:12.                    Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Core Tier 1 capital ratios according to
Basel II
Per cent
    16


    14


    12


    10


     8


     6


     4


     2


     0
              Swedbank      Nordea             SEB              Handelsbanken

                         08:4    09:4   10:4    11:1

Chart 3:13.                                            Source: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Risk weighting on mortgages
according to Basel II
Per cent
    60


    50


    40


    30


    20


    10


     0
                                           Denmark




                                                                                               Italy




                                                                                                                                                 Latvia
                                                                       Netherlands

                                                                                     Germany
              Sweden




                                                     Norway




                                                                                                                               Spain
                                 Finland




                                                                                                                                       Hungary
                       Belgium




                                                              Greece




                                                                                                                                                          Slovakia
                                                                                                                   Lithuania
                                                                                                         Estonia




Chart 3:14.                                                                                            Sources: National central banks and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks' funding,
March 2011
Per cent




Chart 3:15.                Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Government-guaranteed borrowing and the
Riksbank’s lending to the major Swedish banks
Left axis: SEK billion, right axis: percentage of Sweden's GDP




Chart 3:16.                                   Sources: Bank reports, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
The market funding of the major Swedish banks
via Swedish parent and subsidiary companies per
SEK and foreign currencies
SEK billion

  3 000


  2 500


  2 000


  1 500


  1 000


    500


       0
           98   99   00   01   02   03   04       05   06   07    08    09      10     11     12

                               Foreign Currency             SEK

Chart 3:17.                                                  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ lending funded by
foreign currency securities issued in Sweden
Percentage of the major Swedish banks’ market funding in foreign currency
via Swedish parent and subsidiary companies
                               Lending, Latvia
                               and Lithuania
                                    4%




                      Lending, other
                        countries
                           26%               Swedish lending
                                                  43%



                         Lending, euro
                         area countries
                              24%


                                                 Swedish lending
                                                   in foreign
                                                    currency
                                                       3%

Chart 3:19.                                                Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Holders of Swedish covered bonds
SEK billion
   1 600




   1 200




     800




     400




        0



              Non-residents   Banks   Insurance companies     Other

Chart 3:19.                                       Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Funding in US dollars for banks in the euro area
and the Fed’s lending to other central banks
USD billions




Chart B3:1.         Sources: Bank for international settlements, Federal Reserve and the Riksbank
Percentage of funding through securities with
original time to maturity of less than one year in
the Swedish banking system
Per cent




Chart B3:2.                                     Source: The Riksbank
The major banks’ funding from deposits from the
public and securities issued, by currency, per
December 2010
Per cent
   100%



     80%



     60%



     40%



     20%



      0%
              Deposits                     Issued securities

                         SEK   EUR   USD   Other

Chart B3:3                                   Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ assets in
USD per December 2010
SEK billion
    600


    500


    400


    300


    200


    100


       0
                  Nordea              SEB          Handelsbanken        Swedbank              Summa

           Financial assets   Lending/Loans to the public   Lending interbank/ Loans to credit institutions


Chart B3:4.                                                                 Sources: Bank reports and the Riksbank
Contracyclical capital buffers in the
Nordic countries
Per cent
    3,0



    2,5



    2,0



    1,5



    1,0



    0,5



    0,0
          81   83   85   87    89      91    93   95   97   99   01   03     05    07     09     11

                              Sweden        Finland    Norway    Denmark

Chart B3:5                                                        Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Contracyclical capital buffers in the
Baltic countries
Per cent
    3,0



    2,5



    2,0



    1,5



    1,0



    0,5



    0,0
          94   95   96   97   98   99   00    01   02   03   04   05   06   07    08    09    10    11

                                    Estonia        Latvia     Lithuania

Chart B3:6                                                         Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Contracyclical capital buffers for
Swedish banks
Per cent
   3,0



   2,5



   2,0



   1,5



   1,0



   0,5



   0,0
         00   01   02      03      04         05       06    07        08       09        10       11

                        Swedbank        SEB        Handelsbanken       Nordea

Chart B3:7                                                  Sources: The Riksbank and banks’ annual reports
Contracyclical capital buffers without
ceiling in the Nordic countries
Percent
    9

    8

    7

    6

    5

    4

    3

    2

    1

    0
        81   83   85   87   89   91   93   95   97   99   01   03     05     07     09     11

                            Sweden    Finland   Norway    Denmark

Chart B3:8                                                 Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Contracyclical capital buffers without
ceiling in the Baltic countries
Per cent
   9

   8

   7

   6

   5

   4

   3

   2

   1

   0
       94    95   96   97   98   99   00   01   02   03   04   05     06    07    08    09    10    11

                                      Estonia   Latvia    Lithuania

Chart B3:9                                                          Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank
Chapter 4
Earnings before loan losses and loan losses
in the major Swedish banks, March 2011
Totalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices




Chart 4:1.                                         Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the Riksbank
Loan losses levels per bank and year
in the main scenario
Per cent




Chart 4:2.                         Source: The Riksbank
Distribution of loan losses per region in
the period 2010–2013 in the main scenario
SEK billion




Chart 4:3.                           Source: The Riksbank
Tier 1 capital ratio of the major Swedish bank with
the lowest ratio after another Swedish major bank
has defaulted on payments
Per cent
  9

  8

  7

  6

  5

  4

  3

  2

  1

  0
      2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010    2011



Chart 4:4.                                                                  Source: The Riksbank
GDP for Sweden in the stress test and
in the main scenario
SEK billions, fixed prices

    4 000


    3 500


    3 000


    2 500


    2 000


    1 500


    1 000


      500


         0
          1997   1999    2001       2003        2005     2007        2009        2011        2013
                                Main scenario      Stress scenario

Chart 4:5.                                                    Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
 Expected default frequency (EDF) for the
 Swedish non-financial companies in the
 stress test and in the main scenario
 Per cent
2,5



2,0



1,5



1,0



0,5



0,0
      00     01   02   03   04   05     06    07   08   09   10    11     12     13     14

                            EDF, stress scenario    EDF, main scenario



Chart 4:6.                                                     Sources: Moody's KMV and the Riksbank
The major Swedish banks’ core Tier 1 capital
ratios according to Basel II and Basel III,
initially and in the stress test
Per cent
 16%


 14%


 12%


 10%


   8%


   6%


   4%


   2%


   0%
             11    11   12   13   11    11   12   13   11    11   12   13   11    11      12    13
             Kv1                  Kv1                  Kv1                  Kv1
              Handelsbanken             Nordea                SEB                 Swedbank

Chart 4:7.                                                                             Source: The Riksbank
Factors that contribute to changes in the banks’
core Tier 1 capital ratios according to Basel III in
the stress test
Per cent




Chart 4:8.                                       Source: The Riksbank
The Riksbank’s structural liquidity measurement
for the major Swedish banks compared with the
average for a selection of European banks
Stable funding in relation to illiquid assets, per cent




Chart 4:9.                                                Source: Liquidatum and the Riksbank
Survival period for the major Swedish banks in the
stressed scenario, compared with the average for a
selection of European banks
Number of months




Chart 4:10.                           Sources: Liquidatum and the Riksbank

				
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