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Daily Morning Outlook 26 June, 2012 by Alankit Assignments

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Daily Morning Outlook 26 June, 2012 by Alankit Assignments Powered By Docstoc
					        -Daily Morning Outlook-

June 26, 2012
MORNING BELL                                                                                      INDIAN INDICES
Markets at a Glance                                                                               Index                  25/06/12            Pt Chg     % Chg
A flattish to lower opening is very much the possibility for the Indian equity market today,      BSE SENSEX                16,882             (90)       (0.5)
tracking weak Asian markets. Meanwhile, the Asian markets tumbled in the early trade to-          NSE NIFTY                   5,115            (31)       (0.6)
day on global growth concern following the weak closing of European market & American             BSE MIDCAP                  6,008             (2)       (0.0)
Indices during the last trading session, as Moody’s downgraded 28 Spanish banks. Further,
skepticism over EU summit is still maintain, as Germany is holding strong stance to not share     BSE SMALLCAP                6,423              15        0.2
the burden of debt laden countries in European region. On the domestic front, the investors       CNX MIDCAP                  7,119            (14)       (0.2)
will keep a close on Infra stocks today, after RBI has allow them to avail of ECB for repayment   BANK NIFTY                  9,926           (113)       (1.1)
of outstanding Rupee loans towards capital expenditure under the approval route. In SGX
Nifty, Jun’12 contract last traded at 5,108.50, up by 4.50 points from previous settlement.       CD                          6,185              10        0.2

Wall Street Update                                                                                PSU                         7,029            (60)       (0.9)
After opening lower with a loss of more than a percentage, major equity averages finished off     POWER                       1,876            (18)       (0.9)
their lows. Lieu of negative news flooded the markets, started with Spain formally requesting     BANKEX                    11,443            (119)       (1.0)
€100billion to recapitalize its banks, and continued with the resignation of Greece’s newly
appointed finance minister along with Cyprus asking the European Union for help. Mean-            GLOBAL INDICES
while, homebuilders saw good move on the back of better-than-expected new home sales              Index                  25/06/12            Pt Chg     % Chg
number but could not hold on to its momentum and veered sharply lower. Meanwhile, treas-
                                                                                                  Dow Jones                12,503             (138)       (1.1)
uries saw strong gains as heavy buying of longer dated maturities has those yields down as
much as nine basis points.                                                                        NASDAQ                      2,836            (56)       (1.9)

Previous Day Roundup (Domestic)                                                                   FTSE 100                    5,451            (63)       (1.1)
     Indian benchmark indices ended lower as the measures taken by the RBI and government         DAX                         6,132           (131)       (2.1)
     to boost the economy failed to meet market expectations.
     The BSE Sensex closed at 16,882.16 down by 90.35 points or by 0.53% and NSE Nifty
                                                                                                  Index*                 26/06/12            Pt Chg     % Chg
     closed at 5,114.65 down by 31.40 points or 0.61%. The BSE Midcap was at 6,008.46 lower
     by 1.75 points or by 0.03% while, the BSE SmallCap gained 15.22 points or 0.24% at           Nikkei 225                  8,674            (61)       (0.7)
     6,422.72.
                                                                                                  Hang Seng                18,916                18        0.1
     On Sectoral front, baring Consumer durables, all the other indices ended lower with
     Bankex, Power PSU, Metal and IT leading the losers pack.                                     Shanghai                    2,214            (10)       (0.5)
      Indian Rupee recovered a bit, as the RBI announces desperate measures to check its fall.    SGX Nifty                   5,108               4        0.1
Derivative Strategy for June 26, 2012
                                                                                                  * live intraday prices at 8:15am IST
Scrip                            CMP          Recommendation            Target       Stop Loss
NIFTY                           5,109                   SELL             5,050           5,140    Net Inflows in Equity
HEROMOTOCO                      2,034                   SELL             2,004           2,044    ` crore               Buy           Sell       Net      YTD
BANKBARODA                        699                   SELL               685             707
RECLTD                            175                   SELL               169             178    FII (June 25)       1,322         1,441       (119)   42,263
DRREDDY                         1,577                   BUY              1,590           1,569
                                                                                                  MF (June 22)          300           455       (155)   (5,944)
Today’s Event
    UBS Consumption Indicator for the month of May                                                FII participation in Derivatives
    Germany’s Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey for the month of Jul                                                             Buy              Sell         Net
    UK’s Public Sector Net Borrowing Data for the month of May                                    Index Futures           4,034               4,107         (72)
    China’s CB Leading Economic index                                                             Index Options          20,445              20,227          217
    US’s Consumer Confidence for the month of Jun                                                 Stock Futures           4,809               5,076        (267)
                                                                                                  Stock Options            1,455              1,450               6


 Source: Dion Global Solutions Ltd
Technical Overview




 Nifty closed down 31.40 points (-0.61%) at 5,114.65, after failed attempt by government to bolster investor sentiment by announcing measures to curb Rupee's slide
 and weak sentiments from Europe.

 As mentioned in our previous reports that market is trapped in the range of 5,100-5,180, Nifty after faint attempt to breakout from this range closes within the
 range. Nifty made a big bearish candle on daily charts, closing a tab above its support of 5100, signaling the possibility of a quick short covering. Further, any
 breakout from this range will decide the trend for the market. Trading strategy would be to Sell if market resist at 5,200 and Buy if support at 5,100.

 First resistance for the Nifty is 5,155 and next resistance 5,199 and first support for the Nifty is 5,082 and next support at 5,050.




             Support & Resistance                                       Sensex Gainers & Losers                                   Nifty Gainers & Losers
                                                            Gainers             25/06/12      Pt Chg      % Chg      Gainers             25/06/12     Pt Chg    % Chg
Indices           S2      S1      LTP       R1      R2
                                                           Maruti                   1,114        12.6         1.1    Cairn                    331        4.4          1.4
Nifty          5,050   5,082    5,115     5,155   5,199    Gail India                 343         2.6         0.8    Gail India               345        4.5          1.3
                                                           RIL                        716         5.2         0.7    RIL                      717        6.0          0.9
Sensex       16,677 16,779 16,882 17,057 17,145
                                                           HDFC                       643         3.3         0.5    Ambuja Cem.              168        1.3          0.8
Bank Nifty     9,759   9,815    9,926 10,115 10,209        Bajaj Auto               1,550         4.8         0.3    Maruti                  1,110       7.9          0.7


Stocks            S2       S1       LTP      R1      R2    Losers               25/06/12       Pt Chg      % Chg     Losers              25/06/12    Pt Chg    % Chg
RIL              707     711        716     722     728    Hero Moto                2,028      (56.8)        (2.7)   Hero Moto              2,030    (56.1)     (2.7)
SBI            2,041   2,078     2,115    2,176   2,237    Hindalco                   115        (2.8)       (2.4)   Siemens                 696     (19.0)     (2.7)
ITC              246     248        250     253     256                                                              Grasim                 2,462    (65.1)     (2.6)
                                                           ONGC                       273        (6.5)       (2.3)
Infosys        2,442   2,455     2,468    2,486   2,503                                                              Cipla                   306      (7.7)     (2.5)
                                                           Cipla                      307        (7.1)       (2.3)
L&T            1,332   1,343     1,355    1,375   1,395    SBI                      2,115      (41.9)        (1.9)   JP Associate             70      (1.7)     (2.4)


Source: Dion Global Solutions Ltd
CRUDE & BULLION
Commodity                                                                   25/06/12                                   Pt Chg                                    % Chg
Crude (`) (JuL)                                                                4,526                                      (77)                                    (1.7)
Gold (`) (Aug)                                                                30,080                                      106                                       0.4
Silver (`) (Jul)                                                              53,675                                      722                                       1.4
Copper (`) (Jun)                                                                  417                                      (1)                                     (0.2)


                                       Corporate, Industry And Economy (CIE) News At Glance
Corporate News
BSE Code           LTP (`)     Event
                                     Suzlon Energy has sold its Chinese manufacturing subsidiary to China Power (Tianjin) New Energy Development Company for
                                     `340 crore as part of its strategy to retire debt by exiting non-critical assets. The company hit by the huge interest costs on the
     532667           17.75
                                     debt has decided to re-align its business in the Chinese market and focus on asset-light business model to achieve high growth
                                     and margins.
                                     India’s largest engineering conglomerate, Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T) is mulling the stake sale in its infrastructure arm to raise as
     500510         1,355.05
                                     much as USD 500 million.
                                     Ramco Systems Ltd, has successfully implemented the ERP software for the Equipment Rental Management Industry at Al Faris
                                     Equipment Rentals in an entire span of a record 100 days. The implementation of Ramco’s ERP system has enabled Al Faris, the
     532370          144.00
                                     owners of the largest fleet of Mobile Cranes in the UAE, to have effective control over costs and operational parameters, leading
                                     to improved equipment utilization and profitability.

                                     The government has asked the Mukesh Ambani led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to increase the supply of natural gas from its KG
     500325          716.20
                                     -D6 block to the urea manufacturing units of IFFCO and Indo Gulf Fertilizer Ltd.


 Industry News

     Bringing uniformity in the sector, the government has decided to charge 8% of gross revenue as license fee from all telecom service providers across all cate-
     gories and services from 2013-14. Currently, the operators are mandated to pay a license fee in the range of 6-10% depending upon type of service and circle.

     With internet becoming handy to everyone via mobile handset, the telecom operators are worried over the declining usage of short messaging services (SMS).
     The fear comes following the wide adaptation of free smartphone services that enables the user to stay in touch using free voice, video and text applications.
     As per the telecom sector, the SMS services were introduced in a bid to utilize the spare telecoms capacity. However, the service developed to become key
     cash generator for operators, while provided the users an alternative to huge expenses on voice calls.

Economy News
     Believing in India’s strong fundamentals, global agency Moody's has retained India’s outlook to stable despite the slowdown in GDP growth rate. The rating
     comes in contrast to the ratings of other agencies and banks which took the poor GDP as base to calculate the outlook. Against the herd mentality, Moody’s
     has analyzed the slowdown in Indian economy such as lower growth, slowing investment and poor business sentiment very unlikely to be even a medium-term
     feature.
     Following the turmoil in Indian economy, the economic think tank, Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy has raised its inflation target for 2013-14 to 7.3%
     from earlier 6.7%. The upward revision was done on the account of continuous depreciation of Rupee which is further expected to hike inflation. Further, it is
     expected that the CPI inflation for industrial workers will rise by 8.1% in 2012-13 from 8.5% in 2011-12.


 Source: Dion Global Solutions Ltd
Corporate Actions
                                                                    Record Dates

 Company name                                                 BSE Code                 Purpose           Current week                       Forthcoming week

 8K Miles Software Services                                    512161                   Bonus             25/06/2012

 National Oxygen                                               507813                   Rights            27/06/2012

                                                               Ex Dividend Date
Company Name                                                  BSE Code                    CMP            Current Week                       Forthcoming week
Indian Bank                                                     532814                  175.25             25/06/2012
JMT Auto                                                        513691                    57.00            26/06/2012
Andhra Bank                                                    532418                   122.60             27/06/2012
DCM                                                            502820                   117.00             28/06/2012
Infrastructure Development Finance Company                     532659                   130.95             28/06/2012
Sonata Software                                                532221                     18.75            28/06/2012
Atul Auto                                                      531795                   180.10                                                    03/07/2012
GIC Housing Finance                                            511676                     93.20                                                   04/07/2012
Bajaj Auto                                                     532977                  1,550.05                                                   05/07/2012
Jammu & Kashmir Bank                                           532209                   948.00                                                    05/07/2012

                                                                        Ex Split
 Company Name                                BSE Code                      Current Week                                       Forthcoming Week
                                                              CMP              Ratio                    Date            CMP        Ratio                Date
 Zylog Systems                                532883                                                                620.15           2:1          29/06/2012


                                                                      Ex Bonus
 Company Name                                 BSE Code                     Current Week                                       Forthcoming Week
                                                                 CMP          Ratio                     Date             CMP        Ratio               Date
 Aarey Drugs & Pharmaceuticals                 524412           24.00           5:1               25/06/2012


Forthcoming Results

Company                                                  BSE Code                                                        Date                           CMP

Ashirwad Steels &Industries                                526847                                                  30/06/2012                            9.70




 Source: Dion Global Solutions Ltd
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                                                         Alankit House 2E/21,
                                                       Jhandewalan Extension ,
                                                       New Delhi-110055 (India)
                                                         Ph.: 91-11-42541234
                                                     E-mail: research@alankit.com
                                                      Website: www.alankit.com




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