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Gold Mining Industry Cindy Chen Julia Lee Weiwei Sun Patrick Tan Johanne Lee Gold Mining Industry Overall Introduction Structure of Industry Financial Structure Risk Assessment Regulatory Environment (FASB) Overall Introduction Major Product GOLD Substitutes –Direct Substitutes –Indirect Substitutes •Blooming economic condition Production Process (Tech.) Exploration Exploration Drilling Open Pit Mining Blasting Underground Mining Ore and Waste Haulage Production Process (Tech.) Heap leaching Milling Oxidization Leaching Stripping Electro-winning Production Process (Tech.) Smelting Gold Bullion Refining Reclamation Structure of Industry Market Dynamics: – Gold price change Recent Change in Gold Price Year 2000 – present Structure of Industry (cont’d) •Major companies (selected by assets) – Barrick Gold Corp. – Meridian Gold – Agnico-Eagle Mines – Newmont Mining – Glamis Gold – Kinross Gold Corp. – Goldcorp Inc. – Cambior Inc. – Ivanhoe Mines – Placer Dome Financial Structure Cost Structure – Exploration, research and development – General operation costs – Depreciation, depletion and amortization – Interest expenses – Write-down of assets – Other Financial Structure Revenue Composition – Mining revenue – Interest income revenue – Financial activities revenue (ie. Hedging) Risk Assessment Nature of Mineral Exploration and Mining Environmental Risks Reserve Estimates Worldwide Operations Licenses and Permits Risk Assessment (cont’d) Interest Rate Risk Foreign Exchange Rate Risk Commodity Price Risk Derivative Instrument Risk - Credit risk - Market liquidity risk - Mark-to-market risk Energy Risk Risk Management Strategies Use of derivatives on commodities – Hedging on Gold Use of derivatives or other financial instruments on non-commodity items – Not Hedging on Gold – On fuel, interest rate and foreign exchange rate FASB 133 Requires companies to recognize all derivatives instruments as assets or liabilities in the financial statements Measured at fair market value Classification of hedges: – Fair Value Hedge – Cash Flow Hedge – Currency Hedge – Non hedging derivatives BARRICK Gold Corporation Corporate Profile Entered Gold Mining Business in 1983 Has operations in the United States, Peru, Tanzania, Chile, Argentina, Australia and Canada Proven and probable mineral reserves of 86.9 million ounces of gold Hedging Philosophy Creates stable, predictable returns regardless of short-term market conditions. De-linking Barrick's earnings from the volatility in the spot gold market. Creates additional cash reserves that can be used to acquire new assets to accretive to earnings. Hedge Position Barrick hedges approximately 18% of its gold reserves. – 16.1 million ounces or 3 years of expected future production Between 1991 and 2002, Barrick's forward sales program allowed the company to generate additional revenue of $2.2 billion Risk Exposures Gold and Silver Price Risk Interest Rate Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Derivative Risk a) Credit Risk b) Market Liquidity Risk c) Mark-to-Market Risk Hedge Position Current hedge position Financial Statements Tour Hedging Instruments Spot deferred forward Contracts (90%) Variable price Contracts Options Spot Deferred Contract The spot deferred contract is a commitment by the producer to deliver a fix amount of gold to the contract counterparty at a time in the future at a fixed price. The forward price of the contract is based on the spot price on the date of the contract plus a premium (contango). The contango is the difference between the LIBOR less the gold lease rate. The difference between a spot deferred contract and a simple forward contract is that the spot deferred contract can be rolled over into a new contract on delivery date. Spot Deferred Contract: Features The counterparties do not have unilateral and discretionary ‘right to break’ provisions. There are no credit downgrade provisions. Barrick is not subject to any margin calls – regardless of the price of gold. Barrick has the right to accelerate the delivery of gold at any time during the life of its contracts. This flexibility is demonstrated by the terms that allow Barrick to close out hedge contracts at any time on two days notice. Spot Deferred Contract: Features Barrick’s trading agreement also specifies that the counter parties can opt for early close out of their contracts in the event of: a material and lasting impact on Barrick’s ability to deliver gold the counterparties being unable to borrow gold to facilitate the forward contracts Barrick having a net worth of less than $2 billion (currently 3.2 billion) Barrick having a debt to net worth ratio of more than 1.5-2.0:1 (currently 0.25:1) How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick Barrick enters into the spot deferred contract with the Bullion Bank. How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick Bullion Bank borrows gold from the Central Bank How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick Spot Market Sells the gold in the spot market How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick 1% lease rate Interest earned 4% How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick At the delivery date Barrick delivers the gold How It Works Bullion Bank Central Bank Barrick Bullion Bank pays Barrick and returns the gold to the Central Bank Problems Barrick faces huge opportunity losses should gold prices increase If gold lease rate rises above the Libor rate then forward prices will be in backwardation If Barrick’s counterparties are not able to borrow gold to facilitate the contract Barrick can be forced to deliver gold at an unfavourable price Newmont Mining Corporation Creating Value with Every Ounce… Corporate Profile Incorporated in 1921 Other than gold, also engages in the production of and exploration for silver, copper and zinc Has operations in North America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Uzbekistan and Turkey Owns 86.9 million equity ounces of gold Creating Value with Every Ounce… Growing reserves Strengthening asset base Increasing earnings per share Paying higher dividends Improving financial strength Gold Sales Gold sales are made at the average price prevailing during the month, in which the gold is delivered to the customer, plus a "contango“ Revenue is recognized when the price is determinable upon delivery with title transferred to the customer Hedging Philosophy A non-hedger Viewing gold as an equivalent to money Creating paper gold is considered too risky Risk Exposures Commodity Price Risk Foreign Exchange Risk Interest Rate Risk Commodity Price Risk Metal prices fluctuate – Due to demand, forward selling by producers, central bank sales, purchases and lending, investor sentiment, and global mine production levels Forward sales contracts with fixed and floating gold lease rates Foreign Exchange Risk Subject to local currency exchange rates against the US dollars – A devaluation of local currency is neutral or beneficial, and vice versa Currency swap contracts – To hedge the currency risk on repayment of US$- denominated debt Cross currency swap contracts – To receive A$ and pay US$ – Designated as hedges of A$-denominated Interest Rate Risk Interest rate swap contracts Against the interest rate risk exposure from bonds, notes, debentures, and other debts – A reduction in interest expense of $5.9 M in 2002 Hedge Position Currently working to eliminate the hedge book inherited from the acquisition of Normandy – Hedging 80~95% of total reserves About 10.3% of Newmont's proven and probable reserves were subject to derivative contracts Fair Values of Instruments Gold Commodity Ounces Fair Value Contracts (000) (000) Gold Forward Sales Contracts 3,332 (209,717) Gold Put Option Contracts 1,544 (22,603) Gold Convertible Put Options 1,459 (125,486) Gold Sold Convertible 240 (14,295) Put Options Price-Capped Contracts 377 n/a US$/Gold Swap Contracts 600 (87,200) Fair Values of Instruments Other Sales Contracts, Commodity and Derivative Fair Value (000) Instruments Cross Currency Swap Contracts (8,500) Currency Swap Contracts (21,924) Interest Rate Swap contracts 13,800 Fixed Rate Debt 1,075 Annual Report 2002 Financial Highlights In 2002: At an average realized gold price of $313 per ounce Sold 7.6 M ounces of gold Revenue of 2,745 million Net cash of 670.3 million Financial Highlights Cash Flow Hedges – Accumulated Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) of (54.6M) – Gain (Loss) on Derivative Instruments of (39.8M) Under Financial Statement Interest Swaps – Interest, Net of Capitalized Interest is recorded as an expense of 129.6M Foreign Currency Exchange Contracts – Dividend, Interest, Foreign Currency Exchange and Other Income of 39.8M Kinross Gold Corporation “Timing is Everything” Corporate Profile Formed in 1993 The 7th largest primary gold producer in the world Highly leveraged to changes in the price of gold A strict non-hedger (approximately 3.5% of reserves hedged falling to zero by early 2005) Majority of production in North America Highest beta to bullion responses in a rising gold price environment Operating Highlights 888,634 gold equivalent ounces Total cash cost US$201 per ounce Net Loss per share US$0.32 Cash flow provided from operating activities US$0.53 per share Risk Exposures Commodity Price Risks Foreign Currency Exchange Risk Interest Rate Risk No Speculative or Trading Purposes Commodity Price Risks Financial instrument in use: Spot deferred contracts – 312,500 ounce @ $280 Fixed forward contracts – Unknown Written call options – 150,000 ounces @ $326 – Recorded in the financial statements at each measurement date. Foreign Exchange Risk Financial instrument in use: Foreign exchange forward contracts – Sell U.S. dollars and buy Canadian dollars – CDN $25.8 million at an average exchange rate of 1.5175 – Mature over a 12 month period Interest Rate Risk Financial instrument in use: Interest rate swaps – There are no interest rate hedging transactions outstanding as at December 31, 2002. – Probably due to lax monetary policy Energy Price Risk Financial instrument in use: Crude oil forward purchase contracts – As at December 31,2001 – Buy 28,500 barrels of crude oil forward at a price of $20.83 per barrel. – No hedging agreements in place Fair Values of Instruments In 2002: $20.3 million recorded as loss on forward contract $0.8 million recorded as loss on foreign currency contracts Financial loss Loss incurred from Interest and other income – $65.6 million Share in loss of investee companies – $12.9 million Mark-to-market loss on call options – $2.7 million (pg 88) Comparison Risk Management Philosophy Barrick De-linking Barrick's earnings from the volatility in the spot gold market. Newmont non-hedging philosophy Kinross non-hedging philosophy Recommendation: Barrick To maintain its current hedge book In-line with its hedging philosophy Not cave in to shareholder pressure Recommendation: Newmont To keep reducing its hedge book to zero In-line with its non-hedging philosophy Not creating paper gold and thus fluctuating gold prices Recommendation: Kinross To remain as a non-hedging firm Since Kinross is small in size, relative to others, one way to attract investor is to offer higher beta to bullion price Empirical Studies on Hedging in Gold Mining Industry Investors value volatility when it comes to gold mining stocks The more a firm hedges gold price risk the worse it is for their stock return Gold mining firms that aggressively hedge gold price are not maximizing shareholder value ~~Matthew Callahan, “To hedge or not to hedge…from the North American gold mining industry” Conclusion Overall, a decreasing trend on hedging position is observed Any Questions?
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