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Global Warming vs the World

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					     Global Warming
Lawyers as Problem Solvers

   NSABA Annual Conference
      Aimée Christensen
        June 30, 2007
                  Overview
The Science:
1970s & 1980s → IPCC 1988;
Global Action:
UNFCCC signed 1992, in force 1995; Kyoto
Protocol signed 1997, entry into force February 16th,
2005 → global markets launched, regional and
national regulations followed;
The U.S.:
Left KP, state legislation, shareholder resolutions,
pension funds, lawsuits;
The Role of U.S. Lawyers and Law Students:
Global compliance and transactions, state
regulations, shareholder resolutions, lawsuits,
student activism.
     Global Legal Framework
UNFCCC
• Signed at Rio UNCED “Earth Summit”
• Voluntary Commitment to 1990 by 2000
• Differentiated Responsibilities
• Entered into force in 1995: Berlin Mandate

Kyoto Protocol
• Signed December 1997 in Kyoto
• Mandatory commitments for industrialized
nations, vary country by country (fairness and
what is possible)
            Kyoto Protocol
• U.S.: 7% below 1990 levels by 2008-2012
• U.S. fought for inclusion of cap and trade
approach “flexible mechanisms” modeled
on acid rain trading program in U.S.
• EU didn’t like it, wanted regulation, policy
and technology mandates
• Developing countries took no caps,
agreed to participate in flexible mechanisms
(Clean Development Mechanism)
• CDM: promotes greatest bang for buck,
investment flow to sustainable dev’mt
 What’s Happening in the U.S.

State Regulations
• California: Pavley automobile GHG bill,
AB32, GHG registry and RPS
• New England Regional Greenhouse Gas
Initiative (RGGI)
• Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Oregon,
Washington, others – GHG limits
• Renewable Portfolio Standards
                         Example: State Renewable
   Washington:             Electricity Standards
   15% by 2020                     MN: 19% by 2015 (Xcel Energy)*             NY: 24%           ME: 30%
                                                                              by 2013           by 2000
                                   IA: 2% by 1999*       WI: 10% by 2015
                            MT: 15%                                    IL: 8%                    MA: 4%
                            by 2015                                    by 2013**                 by 2009
                                                                                              RI: 16%
                                                                                              by 2019
                                                                                          CT: 10% by 2010
             NV: 20%
             by 2015                                                                     NJ: 22.5% by 2020
                               CO: 10%                                                    DE: 10% by 2019
                               by 2015
                                                                                          MD: 7.5% by 2019
                    AZ: 15%                                                               D.C: 11% by 2022
 CA: 20%            by 2025 NM: 10%                                                     PA: 8% by 2020
 by 2010                    by 2011

                                      TX: 5,880 MW                                        RES
                                      (~5.5%) by 2015
                                                                                          RES and Goal
                          HI: 20% by 2020             21 States                          RE Goal
                                                       + D.C.
*MN has a requirement for one utility, Xcel Energy, and a 10% by 2015
   renewable energy goal for all other utilities. In addition to its requirement,
   IA has a 1,000 MW (~10%) by 2010 goal.
                            Renewable Power Expected
                              From State Standards*
            45,000                                                                      Hawaii
                     New renewable energy supported:
            40,000   - 34,500 MW by 2017**                                              California

            35,000   CO2 reductions: 81.7 Million Metric Tons
                                                                                        Nevada
                     Equivalent to:                                                     AZ & NM
            30,000   - 3.9 billion more trees                                           Washington
Megawatts




                     - 12.2 million less cars                                           CO & MT
            25,000                                                                      Texas

            20,000                                                                      Minnesota
                                                                                        IA & WI
                                                                                        Maryland
            15,000                                                                      Pennsylvania
                                                                                        DC & DE
            10,000                                                                      New Jersey
                                                                                        New York
             5,000                                                                      CT & RI
                                                                                        MA
                0                                                                       Maine
                00
                01
                02
                03
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                05
                06
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                09
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              20
              20
              20
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              20
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              20
              20
              20
              20
              20
              20
              20
              20
    *Projected development assuming states achieve annual RES targets.
    **If achieved, IA, IL, and MN goals would support an additional 5,300 MW by 2017.
    Size of Future Renewables Market
              Renewable Power Market Size-2005 and Projected                    Renewable Fuel Market Size-2005 and Projected

        600                                                                                                    60


        500                                                                                                    50




                                                                                        Billion Gallons/year
        400                                                                                                    40

                                                                          412
   GW




        300                                                                                                    30        40

        200                                                                                                    20

        100                                                                                                    10
                                                                          118                                            10
         0                                                                                                     0
               Wind          Solar        Biomass      Geothermal      Total Non-                                   Total Biofuels
                                                                         Hydro
                                                                      Renewables

                                                    2005   Capacity addition by 2030
Source: REN 21 and IEA

   •Renewable Energy Capacity (Both Power and Fuels) projected to grow 5 times by 2030

          •Over 400GW of Renewable Power Capacity and 40,000 MGPY of Renewable Fuel
                                Capacity to be added by 2030
                     => Over $600 billion to $700 billion investment needed
The Urgency of Climate Action
Key Climate Impacts:
1. Rising Temperatures: Crops, plants, animals suffer; coral reefs dead in 2050;
2. Increased extreme weather events: Storms, flooding, droughts;
3. Sea Level Rise: Climate refugees, lack of fresh water in coastal areas;
4. New Disease, More Susceptibility to Disease.


Five tipping points:
1.   Methane releases: (20x the global warming potential of CO2);
2.   Loss of forest carbon: Forest fires and decimation by insects;
3.   The Arctic ice is melting: key role in reflecting energy, gone by 2040;
4.   Ice on Greenland is melting: about a cubic mile/week with ↑ ice quakes;
5.   Antarctic ice is breaking up: newly discovered massive river under surface.

The sea-level rise numbers in the recent IPCC report do not reflect the impact of
   changes on Greenland or the Antarctic. The IPCC avoided including hard
   numbers from the two largest ice masses on the planet because they can not
   accurately predict the size, scope and pace of the melt.
          Stern Report: 2007
• Without action, we will have a permanent 20%
reduction in per capita consumption.
• Everyone in the world would be a fifth poorer than
they would otherwise have been.
• Even worse, these costs will not be shared evenly.
There will be a disproportionate burden on the
poorest countries.
• To prevent these losses, we need to spend
approximately 1% of world GDP.
• So 1% now to be 20% richer than we will otherwise
be.
• Climate change represents the greatest and widest-
ranging market failure ever seen.
• That’s where governments must act, and where
lawyers are needed.
Other Pressure Points for U.S. Action
Corporate Responsibility: $$ Talks
• Shareholder Resolutions/PR Campaigns:
Stanford, CERES
• Carbon Disclosure Project: $20 trillion invested in
fortune 500 companies, 143 investor institutions
• State Pensions demanding action to mitigate risk
• Insurance industry: no D&O insurance for not ↓
risk
Law Suits:
• States (vs. EPA, vs. utilities), municipalities, Inuit
sue U.S. at Inter-American Commission on Human
Rights
    Multiple Roles for Lawyers
NGOs:
- Advocacy
- Policy Solutions
- Litigation

Government:
- Executive Branch
- Congressional Staff
    Multiple Roles for Lawyers
Global Institutions
- UNDP: capacity building, project development
- World Bank: carbon finance deals, clean
energy for development (policies, projects)

Private Sector
-  Corporation: Energy and industrial emitters,
clean energy companies
- Law Firm: Global risk evaluation, identification
of opportunities, emissions trading
      Roles for Law Students
Campus Climate Neutral (NAELS):
- Law student as problem solver

Investment Responsibility:
-  Endowment investments screened for climate
risk
- Engage corporations to urge risk evaluation
- Proactively invest in clean energy
- Learn from CalPERS and other state
treasurers: what do they know that your
university endowment managers don’t?
     Global Warming
Lawyers as Problem Solvers

       Aimée Christensen
   aimeec@stanfordalumni.org

				
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