Sustainable Development Construction by 6f6g5Yt

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									The Process of Decision Making

          Ethics of Sustainability
                 Class 10


              Martha C. Monroe, Ph.D.
        Professor and Extension Specialist
    School of Forest Resources and Conservation
                 University of Florida
        Your Questions from Reading?

•   Rationality
•   Problems with being rational
•   Strategies to overcome the problems
    –   Information
         •   Finding/creating it; seeing it
    –   Heuristics
         •   Overcoming deficits and shortcuts
    –   Complexity
         •   Too much; unfamiliar; different disciplines
        Today’s Discussion
• Kahneman and Tversky -- Cognitive
  Biases
• Kaplan and Kaplan -- Reasonable
  Person Model
• Systems Thinking with Dr. Matt Cohen

• Other important elements?
               Rationality
• We weigh the costs and benefits of each
  alternative
• And the probability of good and bad things
  happening
• And make the rational decision that
  maximizes our interests
           Kahneman & Tversky
• Israeli psychologists
• Won Nobel prize in Economics for challenging
  our ability to be rational with simple
  experiments that demonstrate cognitive
  hiccups
• Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky. 1974. Judgment under uncertainty:
  heuristics and biases. Science 185, 1124-1131.
Is the letter R more frequently the
  first or third letter in English
  words?
      Why? Availability Heuristic
• Some information is more available in
  our brain than other, because
  – We have little need for some information,
    so we don’t know it, don’t store it, can’t
    retrieve it
  – We remember information unevenly and
    therefore access it unequally
        Estimating a Product
• Intuitive total of
  1x2x3x4x5x6x7x8
• And of
  8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1

  About what did you guess?
        Estimating a Product
• Real answer = 40,320
• Average answer from people working
  up
  (1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8) is 512
• Average answer from people working
  down
  (8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1) is 2,250
• Why would there be such a difference?
       Why? Anchoring Heuristic
• The way we start thinking about
  something greatly influences where we
  end up. Our thinking is “anchored” to
  the initial information
  – What percentage of the UN is African
    nations?
    • Is it more or less than 25%?
    • Is it more or less than 45%?
       Why? Anchoring Heuristic
• The way we start thinking about
  something greatly influences where we
  end up. Our thinking is “anchored” to
  the initial information
  – What percentage of the UN is African
    nations?
    • Is it more or less than 25%?    10%
    • Is it more or less than 45%?    65%
         Which is more likely?
A. Drawing a red marble from a bag containing
   50% red marbles and 50% white marbles?

B. Drawing a red marble seven times in
   succession, with replacement, from a bag
   containing 90% red marbles and 10% white
   marbles?



     A               B
         Which is more likely?
A. Drawing a red marble from a bag containing
   50% red marbles and 50% white marbles?

B. Drawing a red marble at least once in seven
   successive tries, with replacement, from a
   bag containing 10% red marbles and 90%
   white marbles?



     A                B
       Simple and Complex Events
• The complex event that involves
  multiple things dependent upon each
  other is less likely than 50/50, but it
  feels like a sure bet.

• The complex event that involves one
  thing in multiple opportunities is more
  likely than 50/50, but it seems so rare.
  Why? Poor Sense of Probability
• People tend to overestimate events that
  depend on multiple things happening
  and underestimate single events that
  have an opportunity to occur over
  multiple chances.
                   A Scenario
• A town is served by two hospitals. In the larger
  hospital about 45 babies are born every day. The
  smaller hospital sees about 15 births each day. The
  exact number varies.

• Over one year, each hospital recorded the number of
  days more than 60% of the babies born were boys.
  Which hospital recorded more boy-birth-days?
   – The larger
   – The smaller
   – Both were equal
 Why? Representativeness Heuristic
• Judgments tend to match a stereotype. Most
  commonly seen with guessing the probability
  that the quiet woman with glasses is a
  librarian in a room with 30% librarians.
• Overconfidence that small sample sizes match
  global trend
              Relevance?
• How do these cognitive biases affect
  our ability to make decisions about
  sustainability questions?
  – Availability
  – Anchoring
  – Poor Probability
  – Representativeness
                   Some Ideas
• The ability to change our mind when given new
  information

• The ability to try something again after the first
  failure

• The ability to consider all the data after the media
  splash one perspective

• Overconfidence in complex and dependent
  technologies

• Overconfidence in stereotypes rather than data
              What to do?
• Let computers make decisions for us?

• Work on avoiding all previous knowledge?

• Learn where our biases tend to be?
     Reasonable Person Model
• A proposed framework or platform for
  creating opportunities for people to be
  engaged in solving problems

• Stems from an awareness of the reasons
  people do not engage, or engage in anger
    Why some people opt out
– “I don’t know enough; it’s all too confusing”
  • A lack of awareness, understanding, competence
– “I don’t have time”
  • It’s not a priority
  • Avoidance – confusion or overwhelmed
– “I don’t really care”
  • A lack of vision, concern, hope
  • Avoidance – confusion or overwhelmed
– “There’s nothing I can do”
  • A lack of motivation, skill, empowerment
  • A lack of vision, concern, hope
                The Insights
• People are information seekers and processors
  – Information is often conflicting, uncertain, or
    missing
• Without meaningful, helpful information, we do not
  understand
  – Without understanding, we do not begin to imagine
• Without a vision of the possible, we are hopeless
  – Without hope, we are not engaged
• Without chances to practice, we are without skills
  – Without skills, we are not competent
People are not attracted to situations where they are
  not competent, informed, and valued
    The Reasonable Person Model
Kaplan & Kaplan, 2008, Conservation Biology, 22(4):826-829

Shared mental model
                                        Meaningful action
      Knowledge
                                            Hopeful
     Understanding
                                             Helpful
  Issue and process
                                          Engagement



                  Being effective
                     Competence
                    Skills to act
                      Practice
               Mental Models
• Individuals build their own, often from experience
• As we learn, our mental models/cognitive maps,
  become richer, denser, more flexible
• Teaching is the act of helping learners build models,
  or sharing you model with them
• Some sort of model already exists
• Learners code new information into the appropriate
  model where it is relevant and meaningful
• Having a mental model is to understand
      Being Effective = Having
             Capacity
• People, when possible, want to be useful & effective
• May instead be confused, stressed, unpleasant,
  destructive, because…
• They are not being heard; the system must become
  accessible
• They are overwhelmed; they must be able to restore
  mental capacity
• They don’t know how; they need skills and
  opportunities to practice to become competent
              Meaningful Action
• We want to be needed
• And so we participate in efforts that inspire us
  – Blessed Unrest (Hawken 2007) – 108,705 organizations!
• Subdividing big projects into small steps makes it
  easier to imagine reasonable actions
• Knowing about others’ successes help us imagine
  how we might act
  – Media can help; success stories help
• We need to cultivate this desire to be needed and to
  make a difference with opportunities to be engaged
     A Checklist for Educators &
            Researchers
• Is my program, unit, or course building their mental models?
  – Conveying relevant & meaningful knowledge?
  – Building understanding of the issue?
  – Building understanding of the process?
• Am I helping people become effective?
  – Developing competence with issue and process?
  – Developing skills to act?
  – Having capacity to attend, to focus?
• Am I empowering participants?
  – Do they feel more hopeful?
  – Do they want to participate?
  – Are they more engaged?
         Value of Good Examples
Learning about a green building -

 Builds a mental model of sustainable construction
    Conveys relevant & meaningful knowledge
    Builds understanding

 Empowers learners
   They become more hopeful
            Let’s Look at Stories
• A fact-based narrative filled with meaning
    – As in a fable or myth, but modernized for today
•   A storyline – challenge, attempts, solution
•   Characters similar to the audience
•   Specific, vivid settings that can be imagined
•   Action, quotes, etc. to increase interest
•   A “natural” form of communication
         Benefits of Stories
• Interesting – so they convey memorable
  information
• Relevant and meaningful
• Solving problems
• Painting a picture of the possible
• Testimonies, success stories, examples
• Vicarious experience
 What Can a Story Accomplish?
• Build a mental model
 – Conveying relevant & meaningful knowledge
 – Building understanding of the issue
 – Building understanding of the process
• Empower learners with meaningful action
 – Do they feel more hopeful
 – Do they want to participate
 – Are they more engaged
      Understanding Systems
• Complete initial worksheet for systems
  activity

								
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