Docstoc

Distribution of agricultural GDP in India - PowerPoint - PowerPoint

Document Sample
Distribution of agricultural GDP in India - PowerPoint - PowerPoint Powered By Docstoc
					Development and Restructuring
    of Chinese Agriculture

            Dr. Funing Zhong

     College of Economics & Management
       Nanjing Agricultural University
                Nanjing, China
    Outline of Presentation
   Development of Chinese Rural Economy in the
    Past 50 years
   Restructuring of Chinese Rural Economy
    During the Reform
   Sources of Growth in Chinese Rural Economy
   Challenges Facing Chinese Rural Economy
   Policy Alternatives
Development in 5 Decades

   Growth rates in the past 50 years
                     1952-1978   1978-2003
Agricultural GDP        2.0%      4.5%

Total output value                6.13%
Cropping                          4.26%
Forestry                          5.23%
Animal                            9.07%
Fishery                          11.45%
        Development in 5 Decades
                     Indices of Gross Output in Chinese
                          Agricultural, 1978-2003
                                                                                              Total
1700

1500
                                                                                              Farming
1300

1100
                                                                                              Forestry
 900

 700
                                                                                              Animal
 500                                                                                          Husbandry
 300
                                                                                              Fishery
 100
       1978 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
   Development in 5 Decades
                 Grain production, mmt

 year    total   cereals    rice   wheat    maize   beans   tubers
1978    304.8              136.9    53.8    55.9             31.7
1980    320.6              139.9    55.2    62.6             28.7
1985    379.1              168.6    85.8    63.8             26.0
1990    446.2              189.3    98.2    96.8             27.4
1995    466.6    416.1     185.2   102.2   112.0    17.9     32.6
1998    512.3    456.2     198.7   109.7   133.0    20.0     36.0
2000    462.2    405.2     187.9    99.6   106.0    20.1     36.9
2003    430.7    374.3     160.7    86.5   115.8    21.3     35.1
 Development in 5 Decades
Growth rates of per capita real net
 income in rural areas


  1952-1978            1.0%

  1978-2003            7.1%
        Development in 5 Decades
        Nominal annual net income per capita
        in rural areas, by sources     yuan
Net income by source       1985     1990     1995      2000      2003

total                       397.6   686.31   1577.74   2253.42   2622.24

Wages income                72.15   138.80    353.70    702.30    918.38
Family business income     295.98   518.55   1125.79   1427.27   1541.28
    from agriculture       263.81   456.04    956.46   1090.67   1195.58
    from non-agriculture    32.19    62.51    169.33     336.6    345.68
Transfer and property
                            29.47    28.96     98.25    123.85    162.58
income
Restructuring of Rural Economy
   Diversification in Agriculture
        Shares of Gross Output Value in Chinese
                Agricultural, 1978-2003

  Farming           Forestry               Animal Husbandry                  fishery

 100%
 80%
 60%
 40%
 20%
  0%
        1978 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
  Restructuring of Rural Economy
                Sown area structure, %

year    grain oil seeds   cotton   fiber   sugar tobacco vegetables tea orchards
1978   80.3     4.1       3.2      0.5     0.6    0.5       2.2     0.7 1.1
1980   80.1     5.4       3.4      0.5     0.6    0.3       2.2     0.7 1.2
1985   75.8     8.2       3.6      0.9     1.1    0.9       3.3     0.8 1.9
1990   76.5     7.3       3.8      0.3     1.1    1.1       4.3     0.7 3.5
1995   73.4     8.7       3.6      0.3     1.2    1.0       6.3     0.7 5.4
2000   69.4     9.9       2.6      0.2     1.0    0.9       9.7     0.7 5.7
2003   65.2     9.8       3.4      0.2     1.1    0.8      11.8     0.8 6.2
Restructuring of Rural Economy
  Rural employment structure, %

 year     agriculture non-agriculture
1985        81.9          18.1
1990        79.4          20.6
1995        71.8          28.2
2000        68.4          31.6
2003        63.8          36.2
Restructuring of Rural Economy
        Rural employment structure
           Rural Non-agricultural Labor Force(1985-2003)
10,000 Persons
  20000                                            Other
  18000                                            Nonagricultural
                                                   Trades
  16000
  14000                                            Wholesale,Retail
                                                   Trade and Catering
  12000
                                                   Services
  10000
   8000                                            Transport,storage,
                                                   post and
   6000                                            conmmunication
   4000                                            services
                                                   Construction
   2000
      0
 Year
          85

          90
          91

          92

          93

          94
          95

          96

          97
          98

          99
          00

          01

          02

          03
                                                   Industry
        19

        19
        19

        19

        19

        19
        19

        19

        19
        19

        19
        20

        20

        20

        20
Restructuring of Rural Economy
  Structure of grain sown areas, %
year   cereal    rice   wheat    corn soybean tubers
1978    n.a.    28.5    24.2    16.6     n.a.  9.8
1980    n.a.    28.9    24.6    17.1     n.a.  8.7
1985    n.a.    29.5    26.8    16.3     n.a.  7.9
1990    n.a.    29.1    27.1    18.9     n.a.  8.0
1991   83.8     29.0    27.6    19.2    8.2    8.1
1995   81.1     27.9    26.2    20.7 10.2      8.6
2000   78.6     27.6    24.6    21.3 11.7      9.7
2003   77.3     26.7    22.1    24.2 13.0      9.8
Restructuring of Rural Economy

                     Income of Sources Within Agriculture


        2003

        2000
 Year




        1995

        1990

        1985

               0   200        400     600          800   1000      1200   1400
                                            Yuan

                    Farming     Forestry    Animal Husbandry    Fishery
Restructuring of Rural Economy
           By source: Share of Income Within Agriculture

                                  1995
       Farming
                          13.4%      1.6%
       Forestry    1.4%

       Animal
       Husbandry
       Fishery

                                                 83.6%
                              2003
                    2.9%
      20.5%
    2.4%


                                         74.1%
          Source of growth
   Land reform
    Incentives in early 1950s

   Technology advancement
    Dwarf and semi-dwarf varieties in 1960s &
    1970s
    Hybrid rice since 1970s
    Bt cotton in 1990s
           Source of growth

   Irrigation and land improvement
    Irrigated areas(mh ):     45 in 1978, 54 in 2003


   Modern inputs
    Machine power(bw ):       117 in 1978, 604 in 2003
    Chemical fertilizers(mt ): 9 in 1978, 44 in 2003
    Electricity(bkwh):         25 in 1978, 343 in 2003
          Source of growth
   Contribution of diversification in cropping
    sector
       Method of measurement:
          GOV = ∑(AREA×YIELD×PRICE)
          Indgov = Indarea×Indyield×Indprice
          Indprice = Indgov / (Indarea×Indyield)

       Result:
          Increase in sown areas 5.5%
          Increase in yields     53.2%
          Diversification       41.3%
              Source of growth
   Contribution of diversification in
    agriculture
    Assumptions:
       Shifting of resources among sectors adds additional
        growth
    Method of measurement:
       Cont (%) = Conb (%) + Conc (%)×Coni (%)
    Result:
       Inter-sector diversification    43%
       Growth of each sector           57%
       Within-sector diversification   41%
       Overall diversification         66%
          Future Challenges
   Rapid declining of agriculture’s share in
    total GDP
          1952               50.5%
          1978               28.1%
          2003               14.6%
   Relatively slow declining of agriculture’s
    share of employment
          1952               83.5%
          1978               70.5%
          2003               49.1%
        Future Challenges

   Agricultural GDP per worker as a
    percentage of national average

         1952              84.4%
         1978              39.9%
         2003              29.7%
    Future Challenges
Widening rural:urban income gap

     year     income ratio
     1978        2.57
     1980        2.50
     1985        1.86
     1990        2.20
     1995        2.71
     2000        2.79
     2003        3.23
         Future Challenges
   Increasing number of farmers despite
    declining share in total employment
        1952              173 millions
        1978              283 millions
        2003              365 millions
   4.4 persons per household with 2.8
    laborers working on 0.6 hectare of
    cultivated land
       Future Challenges
   Annual production per farmer
        grain               1362 kg
        cotton               15.4 kg
        oil-bearing crops    88.9 kg
        red meats           174.1 kg
        aquatic products    148.8 kg
        milk                 55.2 kg
       Future Challenges

   Continuing pressure on income and
    employment structure following
    economic growth and declining Engle
    coefficient
   Increasing pressure on labor
    productivity and cost from imports
   Continuing bias in public policy and
    investment towards modernized yet
    labor-saving technology
       Policy Alternatives
   Future growth of agriculture and
    farmers’ income largely depends on
    public policy and investment
   Transformation of employment
    structure will ensure a long-run healthy
    growth of the whole economy
   Reducing the number of farmers will
    facilitate expansion of farm size,
    increasing labor productivity and
    competitiveness
       Policy Alternatives
   Transformation of employment structure
    within agriculture is as important
   Relocation of agricultural resources
    towards more profitable products is
    consistent with intensive use of labor
   Relocation of agricultural resources
    towards more profitable products is
    consistent with comparative advantage
        Policy Alternatives
   Policy and public investment needed:
   1. Encouraging establishment and development
    of private small enterprises that are relatively
    labor-intensive;
   2. Encouraging research, development, and
    extension of labor-intensive technology that may
    help absorb more laborers;
   3. Providing a better policy environment, and
    supporting it with increasing public investment
    and expenditure, that allows and increases labor
    mobility among regions and among sectors;
           Policy Alternatives
   Policy and public investment needed:
   4. Increasing public investment and expenditure
    on infrastructures that may help creating more
    jobs;
   5. Increasing public investment and expenditure
    on rural education and career training that may
    help farmers grasp newly-created non-farm job
    opportunities;
   6. Increasing public investment and expenditure
    on rural institutions that may help farmers
    transform production and employment structure.
Thanks!

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:24
posted:6/22/2012
language:
pages:29