Florida's Budget Crisis_ How We Got Into It And What We Need to Do .._3_ by hcj

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									                   LeRoy Collins Institute


Trends Across and Within Florida
  County Seats Spending and
          Revenues
    Robert J. Eger III, PhD ~ Bruce D. McDonald III


      University Center Club ~ October 13, 2009
             LeRoy Collins Institute ~ Carol Weissert, Ph. D., Director
        FSU Campus ~ 506 W Pensacola Street Tallahassee FL 32306-1601
                         850-644-1441 ~ 850-644-1442 fax
    LeRoy Collins Institute



County Seat Variance
      Analysis
              LeRoy Collins Institute

• Data for 3 County Seats within each of
  Eight Regions
• Each Municipality
  – Population
  – Revenues by Source
  – Expenditures by Source
  – All in 2007 Dollars
                         Statistics
        Unemployment Police Fire Prk&Rec Econ Dev Roads Property IGR
Mean             6.04 0.20 0.11 0.07 0.05 0.13 0.21 0.27
Median           5.89 0.20 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.11 0.21 0.25
Maximum          9.25 0.41 0.30 0.31 0.44 0.60 0.48 0.67
Minimum          3.39 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
            Revenue Variances
• Use Revenue Source as a Proportion of General
  Revenues
  – Intergovernmental Revenues
     • Weighted by Consumer Price Index
     • Weighted by Population Change
  – Property Tax Revenues
     • Weighted by Consumer Price Index
     • Weighted by Population Change
• Compute Variance between County Seats over Time
• Overlay with State Unemployment
                                                                                                                                       10.00%




-4.00%
         -2.00%
                         0.00%
                                 2.00%
                                                                                                               4.00%
                                                                                                                       6.00%
                                                                                                                               8.00%
                  1973
                  1974
                  1975
                  1976
                  1977
                  1978
                  1979
                  1980
                  1981
                  1982
                  1983
                  1984
                  1985
                  1986
                  1987
                  1988
                  1989
                  1990
                  1991
                  1992
                  1993
                  1994
                  1995
                  1996
                  1997
                  1998
                  1999
                  2000
                  2001
                  2002
                  2003
                  2004
                  2005
                  2006
                                                                                                         Var IGR
                                                                                      Var Property Tax


                                     State Unemployment
                                                          State Unemployment Change
        Expenditure Variances
• Use Expenditure Source as a Proportion of General
  Expenditures
   – Weighted by Consumer Price Index
   – Weighted by Population Change
• Sources
   – Law Enforcement
   – Fire Services
   – Economic Development
• Compute Variance between County Seats over Time
• Overlay with State Unemployment
                                                                                              0.00%
                                                                                                         0.50%
                                                                                                                 1.00%
                                                                                                                         1.50%
                                                                                                                                 2.00%




-2.50%
         -2.00%
                  -1.50%
                           -1.00%
                                    -0.50%
                                                                                   1973
                                                                                   1974
                                                                                   1975
                                                                                   1976
                                                                                   1977
                                                                                   1978
                                                                                   1979
                                                                                   1980
                                                                                   1981
                                                                                   1982
                                                                                   1983
                                                                                   1984
                                                                                   1985
                                                                                   1986
                                                                                   1987
                                                                                   1988
                                                                                   1989
                                                                                   1990
                                                                                   1991
                                                                                   1992
                                                                                   1993
                                                                                   1994
                                                                                   1995
                                                                                   1996
                                                                                   1997
                                                                                   1998
                                                                                   1999
                                                                                   2000
                                                                                   2001
                                                                                   2002
                                                                                   2003
                                                                                   2004
                                                                                   2005
                                                                                   2006
                                                                                   Var Fire
                                                                                              Var Cops


                                                                Var Econ Develop
                                    State Unemployment Change
         Expenditure Variances
• Use Expenditure Source as a Proportion of General
  Expenditures
   – Weighted by Consumer Price Index
   – Weighted by Population Change
• Sources
   – Roads
   – Parks & Recreation
   – Law Enforcement
• Compute Variance between County Seats over Time
• Overlay with State Unemployment
                                                                                             0.00%
                                                                                                              1.00%
                                                                                                                      1.50%
                                                                                                                              2.00%




-2.50%
         -2.00%
                  -1.50%
                           -1.00%
                                    -0.50%
                                                                                                      0.50%
                                                                            1973
                                                                            1974
                                                                            1975
                                                                            1976
                                                                            1977
                                                                            1978
                                                                            1979
                                                                            1980
                                                                            1981
                                                                            1982
                                                                            1983
                                                                            1984
                                                                            1985
                                                                            1986
                                                                            1987
                                                                            1988
                                                                            1989
                                                                            1990
                                                                            1991
                                                                            1992
                                                                            1993
                                                                            1994
                                                                            1995
                                                                            1996
                                                                            1997
                                                                            1998
                                                                            1999
                                                                            2000
                                                                            2001
                                                                            2002
                                                                            2003
                                                                            2004
                                                                            2005
                                                                            2006
                                                                 Var Cops
                                                                                          Var Roads
                                                                            Var Prk&Rec


                                     State Unemployment Change

								
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