Commodity Daily Report-19-6-2012 by AlankitAssignments

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									            Daily Commodity Watch


                                        June 19, 2012                                                 www.alankit.com
                                                                           Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:

 Crude Oil futures ended lower in the domestic and overseas market
  on Monday amid growing worries that the deepening debt turmoil in
  Europe may slow global growth and squeeze demand for the fuel.
  Spain’s ten-year bond yields surged above 7 per cent on Monday
  after the Bank of Spain said that bad loans in Spain rose to 8.72 per
  cent of total lending in April 2012, the highest since 1994. Worries
  over Spain overshadowed optimism over Greece’s efforts to form a
  pro-bailout government, easing concerns that the nation may exit
  the euro.

 Crude Oil futures pared losses amid hopes of further policy easing by
  the Fed as investors bet that a boost in liquidity may shore up credit   Crude oil intraday chart
  growth and spur economic activity in the US, which may bolster the
  demand for the fuel. A Canadian official said that the G20 nations are
  discussing a variety of measures to shore up confidence in the global
  economy including pledges for additional stimulus by some nations.

 Gold futures rose in the domestic market on Monday on hopes that
  the US Federal Reserve may bolster monetary stimulus to spur
  economic growth, bolstering the demand outlook for the precious
  metal. The two-day policy meet of the Fed begins on Tuesday.
  Speculation is rife that the Fed may announce further policy easing
  measures to bolster US economic recovery.

 Copper futures closed flat, with a positive bias in the domestic
  market and ended lower in the overseas market on Monday as a
  surge in Spanish borrowings costs raised concerns that Europe’s          Copper intraday chart
  lingering debt woes were deepening, dimming the demand outlook
  for the base metal.

 The sharp depreciation of the rupee against the greenback on
  Monday put upward pressure on domestic Gold, Crude Oil and
  Copper futures.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

 Market Overview                                                                                    Commodity Indices at MCX
                                                                                         Indices        Close                PCP              %Chg
 On June 18, 2012 (Monday), the domestic commodity markets got a sigh of relief
                                                                                      MCXCOMDEX       3668.81               3648.53            0.55
 as New Democracy party won the election in Greece and pro-bailout parties
                                                                                      MCXMETAL        5001.46               4984.41            0.34
 would be able to control the parliament, easing the major concerns that the debt-
 ridden country would abandon the fiscal tightening measures and leave the Euro-      MCXENERGY       3172.94               3162.86            0.31
 zone. Apart from this, domestic commodities prices also got support from the         MCXAGRI         2729.03               2677.79            1.91
 sharp depreciation of the Indian currency against the U.S. dollar. In futures
 trading, USDINR for June 2012 contract depreciated as much as 40.25 paise to                                Index at NCDEX
 `56.0575 per dollar, and settled at `56.0125, down by 0.64 per cent, on MCX-SX.         Index          Close                PCP              %Chg
 While, rupee spot depreciated as much as 63 paise to `56.03 per dollar and           Dhaanya         2423.59               2408.93            0.61
 settled at `55.915, down by 0.93 per cent. Market sentiment further lifted on
 speculation that the Federal Reserve will take steps to spur economic growth at
                                                                                                         Top Gainers at MCX
 June 19-20 meeting as slowing employment growth and a deepening crisis in
 Europe weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.                                           Commodity     Expiry       Close (`)         PCP (`)   % Chg
                                                                                      Natural Gas   June         144.60            137.50    5.16
 All the four indices, at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), settled on Monday       Natural Gas   July         148.20            141.30    4.88
 in the positive terrain. MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,668.81 (up by 0.55 per cent),         Natural Gas   Aug          151               144.40    4.57
 MCXMETAL closed at 5,001.46 (up by 0.34 per cent), MCXENERGY closed at               Mentha Oil    Aug          1403.40           1349.40   4
 3,172.94 (up by 0.31 per cent), and MCXAGRI closed at 2,729.03 (Up by 1.91 per       Mentha Oil    Sep          1430.80           1375.80   4
 cent).
                                                                                                         Top Losers at MCX
 MCXAGRI, an agri-commodity index, was the top gainers among all the indices due      Commodity     Expiry      Close(`)        PCP (`)      % Chg
 to significant gains in Mentha oil, soya bean etc. At MCX, mentha oil futures        Cardamom      Oct         1104            1150         (4.00)
 rebounded, after falling for the three straight trading sessions, on the back of     Cardamom      Sep         1141.90         1176         (2.90)
 fresh buying at the lower price level amid firm spot demand from the                 Gold Petal    Aug         3078            3165         (2.75)
 pharmaceutical industries. Mentha oil futures for August contract ended 4 per        Cardamom      Aug         1165            1184.80      (1.67)
 cent higher at `1,403.40 per kg on MCX.                                              Brent Crude   Aug         5390            5469         (1.44)

 In metal segment, gold prices reached at a new record high on Monday in the                           Top Gainers at NCDEX
 domestic bullion market, supported by rupee depreciation against the U.S. dollar
                                                                                      Commodity     Expiry      Close(`)        PCP (`)      % Chg
 and expectation of further stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve Bank at June
                                                                                      Soya Bean     Oct         3144            3023         4
 19-20 meeting, boosting demand for bullion as a hedge against inflation. Gold
                                                                                      Castor Seed   July        3340            3213         3.95
 futures for August contract gained as much as 0.61 per cent to `30,340 per 10
                                                                                      Castor Seed   Aug         3398            3273         3.82
 grams, all time high, and settled at `30,311, up by 0.52 per cent, on MCX.
                                                                                      Castor Seed   Sep         3458            3334         3.72
                                                                                      Potato        Sep         1243            1201         3.44
 In energy segment, natural gas futures rose around 5 per cent in the domestic
 market following firm overseas cues. Gas prices climbed around 3 per cent in the
                                                                                                        Top Losers at NCDEX
 overseas market, supported by firm industrial demand and forecast of hotter
 weather in most of the part of the U.S. in the coming days. Moreover, weekly         Commodity     Expiry      Close (`)       PCP (`)      % Chg
 storage data last week showed a smaller than expected build in inventories,          Barley        Sep         1260.50         1313         (4.00)
 forcing prices above the key technical levels at 2.45, the 40-day moving average.    Barley        Aug         1237.50         1289         (4.00)
                                                                                      Barley        June        1191            1240.50      (3.99)
                                                                                      Barley        July        1207.50         1257.50      (3.98)
 On Monday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were Crude
                                                                                      Chilli        Aug         5000            5180         (3.47)
 Oil for June 2012 contract with 236929 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract
 with 169069 lots, copper for June 2012 contract with 151912 lots, Silver M for
 June 2012 contract with 117585 lots and Copper for June 2012 contract with
 89392 lots.

 At MCX, silver futures for July 2012 contract closed at `54,923 per kg, up by 0.70
 per cent, after opening at `54,450 against the previous closing of `54,541 per kg.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                         Fundamental Market Overview
                                                                 MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
     Contract                Close            Open              High       Low          PCP                  % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
     June, 2012               4655             4669             4725             4604          4666           -0.24                 230,511
     July, 2012               4700             4715             4769             4650          4713           -0.28                  73,047

                                           Crude Oil futures fell more than 0.20 per cent in the domestic market on Monday amid growing worries that the
                                           deepening debt turmoil in Europe may slow global growth and squeeze demand for the fuel. Spain’s borrowing
                                           costs soared to a euro-era record high on Monday as a surge in bad loans fanned fears that Europe’s debt woes
                                           were deepening, dimming the demand outlook for the fuel. Spain’s ten-year bond yields surged above 7 per cent
                                           on Monday after the Bank of Spain said that bad loans in Spain rose to 8.72 per cent of total lending in April
     Crude oil futures fell in the         2012, the highest since 1994 as consumers and companies defaulted amid the deepening recession in the
     domestic market on Monday             nation. Worries over Spain overshadowed optimism over Greece’s efforts to form a pro-bailout government,
     on growing worries that a             easing concerns that the nation may exit the euro. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Greece must not
     worsening debt contagion in           be given any leeway to comply with the austerity pledges required to secure rescue aid after pro-bailout parties
     Europe may crimp the demand           claimed victory in Sunday’s elections.
     for the fuel

                                           Crude Oil futures pared losses amid hopes of further policy easing by the Fed as investors bet that a boost in
                                           liquidity may shore up credit growth and spur economic activity in the US, which may bolster the demand for the
                                           fuel. A Canadian official said that the G20 nations are discussing a variety of measures to shore up confidence in
                                           the global economy including deficit reduction measures for some nations and pledges for additional stimulus by
                                           others. The depreciation of the rupee against the dollar also stemmed some of the losses in the fuel in the
                                           domestic market. At the MCX, crude oil futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 1.33 per cent at `4,604
                                           per barrel and settled at `4,655 per barrel, down by 0.24 per cent.

    Currently, Crude futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $83.06 per barrel, down by 0.25 per cent at 10:17 AM IST.

                                                                 MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
     Contract                 Close           Open             High        Low         PCP                    % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
     August, 2012             30311           30061            30340           29975           30154           0.52                   48,098
     October,2012             30607           30350            30640           30293           30455           0.50                    1,734

                                              Gold futures rose more than 0.45 per cent in the domestic market on Monday on hopes that the US Federal
                                              Reserve may bolster monetary stimulus to spur economic growth, bolstering the demand outlook for the
                                              precious metal. Further monetary easing is bullish for gold demand, given that the precious metal is
                                              considered a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary stimulus. The two-day policy meet of the Fed
                                              begins on Tuesday. Speculation is rife that the Fed may announce further policy easing measures to bolster
     Gold futures ended higher in the         US economic recovery amid elevated unemployment and rising global risks. Gold futures also rose after a
     domestic market on Monday on             Canadian official said that the Group of 20 (G20) nations are discussing measures to stimulate global growth
     hopes that the US Fed may                including pledges by some nations to boost stimulus, bolstering the demand outlook for gold, which is a
     bolster monetary stimulus                hedge against inflation.

                                              The sharp depreciation of the rupee against the greenback on Monday also put upward pressure on domestic
                                              gold prices. Gold futures also rose as the deepening debt crises in Europe attracted safe haven demand for
                                              the precious metal. A surge in Spanish ten-year bond yields to a euro-era record high of above 7 per cent
                                              raised concerns that Europe’s debt crises is deepening, bolstering the safe haven demand for the yellow
                                              metal. On the MCX, gold futures for the August 2012 contract rose as much as 0.62 per cent to touch a day’s
                                              high of `30,340 per 10 grams and settled at `30,311 per 10 grams, up by 0.52 per cent.

                                              Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,625.70 per ounce,
                                              down by 0.08 per cent at 10:37 AM IST.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                                  MCX Copper (`/Kg)
    Contract                   Close           Open           High      Low         PCP                    % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012                 418.55          417.50        420.10         416.55         418.20          0.08                  120,413
    August, 2012               423.05          421.35        424.60         420.35         422.80          0.06                   9,712

                                          Copper futures closed flat, with a positive bias in the domestic market and ended lower in the overseas market on
                                          Monday as a surge in Spanish borrowings costs raised concerns that Europe’s lingering debt woes were deepening,
                                          dimming the demand outlook for the base metal. Spain’s borrowing costs surged to a euro-era record high on
                                          Monday after the Bank of Spain said that bad loans in Spain surged to 8.72 per cent of total lending in April 2012,
                                          the highest since 1994. However, worries over Spain were offset by optimism that Greece would remain in the
     Copper futures ended flat in         Eurozone after pro-bailout parties emerged victorious in the elections held on Sunday.
     the domestic market on
     Monday amid worries that the         The sharp slide in the Indian rupee against the greenback on Monday also put upward pressure on domestic
     deepening debt crises in             copper futures. Investors were eying the two-day policy meet of the Federal Reserve beginning on Tuesday. Hopes
     Europe may crimp the demand          of policy easing by the Fed and other central banks across the globe may support copper futures in the coming
     for the base metal                   sessions. A Canadian official said that the G20 nations are discussing a variety of measures to shore up confidence
                                          in the global economy including pledges for additional stimulus by some nations. On the MCX, Copper futures for
                                          the June 2012 contract rose as much as 0.45 per cent at `420.10 per Kg and settled at `418.55 per Kg, up by 0.08
                                          per cent.

                                          Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3960per pound, up
                                          by 0.32per cent at 11:00 AM IST ahead of the two-day meet of the Fed beginning today.



                                                          Today’s Economic Calendar
    Date            Time (IST)                     Economic Data              Country                         Forecast                     Prior
     19-06-2012      02:00 PM                          CPI y/y                             GBP                                              3.0%
                     02:30 PM              German ZEW Economic Sentiment                   EUR                                               3.6
                     06:00 PM                     Building Permits                          US                                             0.73 M


                                                 LME statistics as on June 18, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
    Commodity                           Lead       Aluminum            Copper            Nickel                        Tin                  Zinc
    Cash Buyer                        1893               1881.50             7475                16620               19425                  1894
    Cash Seller & Settlement         1893.50              1882              7475.50              16625               19430                 1894.50

                                                  LME Index Value as on June 19 2012- 3,219.9*
        *Last available public data on LME website

                                                   Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
    Commodity                  Expiry            PCP         R2           R1           Pivot                        S1              S2          Trend
    Gold                       Aug,12           30311              30680         30417            29972            29708          29263           Up
    Silver                      July,12         54923              55503         55213            54733            54443          53963           Up
    Crude Oil                    June            4655               4782          4718             4661             4597           4540          Down
    Copper                     June,12          418.55             421.95        420.25           418.4            416.7          414.85          Up
    Natural Gas                  June           145.1               152.1        148.6            143.2            139.7          134.3           Up
    Nickel                       June            937                 985           961              942             918             899        Sideways
    Lead                         June           105.9              108.45        107.4            1106.3           105.2          104.1          Down
    Zinc                         June           105.2               107.1        106.1            105.1            104.1          103.1          Down
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

   Abbreviations:
   MCX      :          Multi Commodity Exchange
   NCDEX :             National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
   PCP      :          Previous Closing Price
   NYMEX :             New York Mercantile Exchange
   COMEX :             Commodity Exchange
   LME      :          London Metal Exchange
   OPEC     :          Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
   EIA      :          Energy Information Administration
   ECB      :          European Central Bank
   OPEC     :          Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries




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