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					Casualty Actuaries of the Southeast
        Fall 2005 Meeting
   Monday, October 10, 2005
           Atlanta, GA

          Sally Ezra, Partner
       D.W. Simpson & Company
      Global Actuarial Recruitment
Changes in the Uses of Technology are
 Changing Demand in the Marketplace

Drivers behind the increase in the
demand :

      Cheap Computer Power
      Cheap Storage Capacity
          Source: Strategic Research, IBM

Most mathematical algorithms have
always existed (more or less), but it is the
affordability of the technology that is
allowing advances to be made now.
                       - From the Press -
                 Uses of Emerging Technologies
    According to research firm Conning, 92 percent of the largest U.S.
     insurers look at credit scores to determine whether to write new
Source: Business 2.0, Finding Riches in a Mine of Credit Data, by Matthew Maier, October, 2005

    "Two years ago, when we brought up the subject of predictive
     modeling to an insurance CEO, his eyes would glaze over," says Dax
     Craig, president, CEO and founder of Valen Technologies Inc., a
     Denver-based provider of risk-based predictive modeling and analysis
     tools to the property/casualty market.

     "But in a short amount of time, there's been a sea change with
     insurers about understanding the value of predictive modeling," he
     adds….”a dynamic predictive modeling solution offers a high level of
     transparency, and gives insurers a reason for not only how-but why-a
     risk is high or low. When insurers see this, adoption goes way up.“
Source: Insurance NetworkingNews, Analyze This, By Steve Dwyer, Senior Editor, February 1, 2005
                - From the Press -
      Uses of Emerging Technologies (cont.)
    Computing grids are software engines that pool together and
     manage resources from isolated systems to form a new type of low-
     cost supercomputer. In spite of their usefulness, grids remained the
     plaything of researchers for many years. But now, in 2005, grids
     have finally come of age and are becoming increasingly
Source: BetaNews, Interview: The Future in Grid Computing, By David Worthington, February 21, 2005

More about grids:

    Nationwide is running numerically intensive actuarial calculations on
     50 desktops instead of on a single server. In doing so, the company
     has cut computation time on one process from 36 days to 26 hours.,10801,95800,00.html
Source: Computer World, Sidebar: Making the Case, Patrick Thibodeau, September 13, 2004
    Supply and Demand: An Overview
   In rough terms, nearly 80% of the P&C jobs we have are
    traditional pricing, reserving, personal lines, commercial
    lines, consulting, reinsurance jobs

   20% of our P&C jobs are looking for some level of
    experience working with technology that can still be
    considered emerging

   In rough terms, again, around 90% of our P&C candidates
    have more/less traditional actuarial skills; many of those
    skills were considered non-traditional, but are considered
    more mainstream now

   10% of our P&C candidates have experience with emerging
    technologies, and 30% of those candidates are not
    interested in continuing with exams
       Excerpts from emails our firm has
        received over the past 2 weeks:
   Ideally, the candidate will be familiar with predictive modeling
    techniques to identify profitable niches within the small commercial

   Predictive Modeling: someone with consulting or insurance company
    experience who has both a handle on the underlying statistical theory and
    experience with practical implementation issues.

   Do you know any candidates with RMS modeling skills? They do not have
    to be actuaries. Please let me know if you know any who are looking.

   We are looking for someone who can be in front of customers and has a
    dynamic personality. Someone who is enthusiastic and passionate.

   Candidates should have very strong experience with current data mining
    technologies (structured and unstructured data) and methodologies and/or
    algorithm development/analytic skills.

   Our internal capital allocation model has become cumbersome, and we
    need someone who has both the ability to develop the models and also to
    work on an interdisciplinary team to determine how to go about it. This
    person cannot be a backroom actuary.
Skills in Demand, 2005


Cat Modeling

    Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM)
 European, UK and Australian companies
  using Predictive Modeling since early to
  mid 1990’s. Became a predominately
  requested skill in the US only about 2
  years ago
 Personal Lines Carriers – A lot of data
 Commercial Lines Carriers – Only when
  significant amounts of useful data are
 Software Developers and Consultants
 Developers, Modelers, Users
         Catastrophe Modeling
   Mega Cats such as Hurricane Andrew, and man made Mega
    Cats, i.e., 9-11

   The 2004 hurricane season brought CAT Modeling skills
    back in spotlight; Katrina had an immediate impact -
    immediate increase in demand

   Who is using Cat Modeling tools?

   Who is looking to add actuaries in the pursuit of modeling
    Cats? All primary carriers, reinsurers, consultants, brokers,
    and to a lesser degree, the modeling agencies / providers

   What Cat Modeling package experience are we seeing in
    demand? RMS, AIR, and Equecat
    Enterprise-Wide Risk Management
   DFA – Then and Now
   Began as a P&C focused tool, but has been more
    widely used by life insurance companies
   S&P – has just announced it will be implementing
    ERM to assist in analyzing companies’ financial
   Insurance companies are using ERM and Capital
    Allocation Models limber enough to model their
    company (enterprise) a specific book, or even an
    individual account or line of business
   ERM skills in demand
   Overall Impact on Hiring
 Shortage of skills in these emerging,
 non-traditional markets

 Howto hire a candidate with strong
 modeling skills in today’s market
 where demand considerably
 outweighs supply
   How To Increase The Flow of
Ask yourself:

  – What is the true minimum years of experience with
    ___________ I need?

  – What soft skills do I need?

  – What are my absolute minimums if the candidate is
    perfect in other ways and has a true passion for the

  – Can my company transfer a visa or do a TN Visa?

  – Am I being realistic? Does this candidate exist?
                   What’s Hot?
 Any    Modeling Experience

 Client     facing, internal & external

 Developers (fear of being typecast as a programmer
  should no longer exist)

 Ability     to work with multi-disciplinary
       Skills Always in Demand:
   Able to discuss very technical matters to non-actuaries and to people at all
    levels of experience and understanding

   Being a business savvy actuary – must be multidimensional rather than
    just technical

   Strong exam passing record

   Solid work history and career progression

   Strong software skills

   Strong software skills

   Work independently and lead projects; effective follow-through skills

   Team player with a strong work ethic

    Sally Ezra, Partner
 D.W. Simpson & Company
Global Actuarial Recruitment
  800-837-8338 ext. 234