South Africa Freight Transport Report Q2 2012 by calebjackson

VIEWS: 12 PAGES: 2

More Info
									South Africa Freight Transport Report Q2 2012
Published : June 2012              No. of Pages : 57                 Price:US$1175




BMI's projections for volume growth in South Africa's freight transport sector in 2012 are relatively
bearish, sitting around the 1% mark for rail freight and throughput at the country's largest port in terms of
tonnage volume, Richards Bay. Investments are being made in ports and rail infrastructure nonetheless,
which will leave South Africa's freight transport sector well equipped to deal with future growth once the
global economic situation improves.
Headline Industry Data
1.Rail freight growth will be just 0.6% in 2012, and will remain low, averaging 1.2%, to 2016.
2.Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2012 is forecast to increase by 1.2%. Over the medium-term
we project a 1.5% average annual increase.
3.2012 total trade growth is forecast at 6.0%, slightly down on the estimated 6.7% expansion in 2011.

Key Industry Trends
Solution Or Destitution - US$2bn South Africa To Swaziland Rail Link
Transnet and Swazi Rail's ambitious US$2bn rail link would certainly bring both direct gains - increased
capacity, reduction in transport costs and a decrease in commodities prices - as well as positive
externalities - job-creation, an economic boost, industries developing along the rail infrastructure.
However, we also highlight the potential difficulties in terms of funding as government finances are
pushed to the limit, with South Africa's construction industry's continued hangover from pre-World Cup
excesses.

TFR Places Order For 43 Diesel-Electric Locomotives
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) has placed an order for another 43 of General Electric (GE)'s Class 43
dieselelectric locomotives. The company had earlier ordered 100 Class 43 locomotives from the US-
based industrial conglomerate. Based on GE's 3,300-hp C30-ACi fuel-efficient platform, the locomotives
are considered the most powerful diesel-electrics in service with TFR. The company has already received
delivery of the first 10, while the remainder are being constructed under license by Transnet Rail
Engineering at its workshops in Koedoespoort, north of Pretoria.

New Operating System Will Help Durban Cope With Expansion
BMI believes that a dip in handling times at the Port of Durban, South Africa's primary container port, in
2011, caused by the introduction of a new port operating system, should be ironed out in 2012 as the port
works in tandem with the system manufacturer to ensure the best results. While we acknowledge that the
introduction of new technologies in ports can sometimes hit stumbling blocks, BMI believes that it is
essential that container facilities continue to innovate if they are to compete on the world stage.

Key Risks To Outlook
Significant risks are posed to South Africa by the global headwinds facing the world economy - namely
the ongoing European debt crisis and the potential of a hard landing in China. China in particular could be
a real concern if growth continues to slow and the country begins to use its stockpiles of coal and iron
ore, which would impact on volumes of the commodities being transported on South African rail and
through South African ports.

South African Freight Transport Q2 2012

Table of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 7
South Africa Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7
South Africa Political Industry SWOT ... 8
South Africa Economic Industry SWOT . 8
South Africa Business Environment Industry SWOT .. 9
Industry Trends And Developments 10
Logistics ... 10
Rail .. 10
Maritime .. 12
Market Overview . 16
Industry Forecast ... 20
Maritime Freight . 20
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes) 21
Rail Freight . 21
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016 ... 22
Trade ... 22
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$ and % change y-o-y) .. 24
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .. 25
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) .. 25
Global Oil Products Price Outlook ... 26
Political Outlook . 31
Domestic Politics . 31
Macroeconomic Outlook ... 34
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity .. 36
Company Profiles ... 37
Grindrod .. 37
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) 40
Safmarine . 46
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL) . 49
Country Snapshot: South Africa Demographic Data . 51
Section 1: Population ... 51
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 51
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ... 52
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 52
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .. 52
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 52
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .. 53
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 .. 53
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 53
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 .. 54
BMI Methodology ... 55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 55
Transport Industry ... 55
Sources 56Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2008-2016 ('000 tonnes) . 21
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016 . 22
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$ and % change y-o-y) . 24
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 25
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 25
Table: South Africa - Economic Activity . 36
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 . 51
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 . 52
Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 52
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 . 52
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 53
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) . 53

								
To top