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When Sabon-Lugbe- an informal settlement- was demolished in 2009, the affected people majorly relocated to the nearby FHA (Federal Housing Authority) Estate, Lugbe, this scenario of unprecedented population upsurge distorted the normal property market conditions. The demand for accommodation surpassed that of available housing supply in the area. Real estate supply being an inelastic one necessitated the owners of few available residential and commercial accommodations to increase the rental values. This work assesses the impact of the Sabon-Lugbe demolition on the rental value of residential and commercial properties in FHA housing estate Lugbe, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 © 2011 Cenresin Publications www.cenresinpub.org THE IMPACT OF HOUSING DEMOLITION AND FORCE EVICTION ON PROPERTY RENTAL VALUES IN ABUJA, FEDERAL CAPITAL TERRITORY (FCT), NIGERIA: A CASE STUDY OF SABON LUGBE Salau L. Tunde Department of Estate Management Federal Polytechnic Bauchi, Bauchi, Nigeria Email: firstname.lastname@example.org ABSTRACT When Sabon-Lugbe- an informal settlement- was demolished in 2009, the affected people majorly relocated to the nearby FHA (Federal Housing Authority) Estate, Lugbe, this scenario of unprecedented population upsurge distorted the normal property market conditions. The demand for accommodation surpassed that of available housing supply in the area. Real estate supply being an inelastic one necessitated the owners of few available residential and commercial accommodations to increase the rental values. This work assesses the impact of the Sabon-Lugbe demolition on the rental value of residential and commercial properties in FHA housing estate Lugbe, Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The study utilized 122 retrieved questionnaires from the evictees and it reveals that the housing demolition and forced eviction at Sabon-Lugbe village, Abuja brought about the residential property annual rental trends of 9333.33, 82333.3 and 67333.3 for 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom and 3 bedroom flats respectively in 2009-2010. Also, change in annual rental trend of commercial property of 17933.3 and 36000 were experienced in the study area for lock-up shops and office spaces due to high demand brought about by population upsurge from Sabon-Lugbe evictees. The paper suggests that enough notice be given to the potential evictees before final demolition and also private investors should be involved in the provision of mass housing and infrastructural development in the FHA, Estate, Lugbe, Abuja, FCT Nigeria. KEYWORDS: Housing Demolition, Rental Values, Residential property, Commercial property, Forced eviction. INTRODUCTION Federal Capital Territory was created in 1976 by Decree No. 6 of the same year. Due to huge migration of people from various parts of Nigeria and beyond, land value and housing rental value have increased. This has made living within the urban centre by the low income earners very difficult. Majority of this class of populace seeks accommodation at the periphery of the city of which Sabon Lugbe Village is inclusive. Sabon Lugbe is a sub-urban centre at the outskirt of Abuja city along Airport road. Due to its proximity to Abuja city centre, being serviced by a well tarred dual-carriage way (Airport Road), its closeness to Federal Housing Authority (FHA) Housing Estate, Lugbe, low property rental value and easy access to informal land etc., all contributed to the reasons while poor inhabitants prefer this squatter settlement. In 2006, Development control Department of Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA) issued Quit Notice and carried out building enumeration of the area for demolition. However, not until March 2009, before the real demolition of the structure was carried out. This impromptus demolition and eviction brought about a mass 79 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe influx of people into and subsequent accommodation seeking in the nearby FHA Housing Estate in Lugbe. This increase in demand for housing brought about unprecedented change in rental trend in the neighborhood. This paper examines the impact of the forced eviction and demolition, with its subsequent population increase on the residential rental value in Lugbe, Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nigeria. LITERATURE REVIEW The review of the literature for this study is based on forced eviction and housing demolition, population and rental values. FORCED EVICTION AND HOUSING DEMOLITION Eviction is defined as an involuntary or forceful removal of people and property from their homes by whatever means. (Agbola and Junaidu, 1997). Eviction may be induced by natural factors or disasters (e.g. fire outbreaks, floods – as experienced recently in Pakistan; earthquakes as in Kobe, Japan; Tornadoes, as it happened in Florida, U.S.A. e.t.c.), wars or colonization. This type of eviction is known as voluntary movement or population transfer. However, forced eviction is usually an officially sanctioned act which has many harmful consequences for the affected person or group. Schechla (1994) opines that it is sometimes violent and socially, economically or radically discriminatory in nature. Forced eviction started in the United Kingdom in the early nineteen century to reduce overcrowding and to clear informal settlements. Agbola and Junaidu, (1997) emphasis how it has become a common mean by which land occupied predominantly by low-income groups is cleared for redevelopment. Environment and Urbanization (1994) concludes that millions of people are forcibly evicted from their homes annually in urban areas of Africa, Asia and Latin America. Sculler and Calson (1981) assert that forced eviction and relocation have been known to inflict serious adverse consequences on the people concern. They are of the opinion that forced resettlement is the worst thing you can be done to a people next to killing them. Urban dislocation is likely to create social and psychological problems for the affected evictee. Dislocation as observed by Fried (1963) may lead to personal suffering. Smith (1986) and Asian Coalition for Housing Rights (1989) identify that most of those people who were evicted in Seoul, South Korea between 1960 and 1990 could not afford houses in the redeveloped areas and were forced to pay higher prices for smaller spaces in the nearby neighborhoods. The dislocation that accompanied eviction in Tel-Aviv brought about broken community ties, family life suffering, high cost of job accessibility, distortion in children schooling e.t.c. (Asian Coalition for Housing Right, 1989). Housing and housing related matters were considered as the topmost problems being encountered by evictees of Maroko demolition in Lagos State in 1990. About 21% of these people considered high rent as the major housing problem. (Agbola and Jinadu, 1997). POPULATION AND RENTAL VALUE Housing is one of basic necessities of life. An increasing in population means an increasing demand for housing. Nigeria with population of about 140 Million, with an annual increase of 80 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 2.5% relates to more demand for accommodation, and where such demand could not be readily met or supplied, the value of the available ones increases. Increase in population of an area brings about increase in rental value. Demolition of housing units means reduction in available accommodation or decrease in supply. And decrease in supply, in an economic term always leads to increase in price i.e. increase in rental value. There are many ways by which population of an area can be increased, which include, natural birth, reduction in death rate, early marriage, migration etc. Migration of people into on area may be induced by pull or push factor. Pull factors relates to favorable conditions or situation which give an area a comparative advantage over another neighborhood, hence, attracting people therein e.g. good infrastructural facilities, availability of job, etc. Push factor relates to unfavorable conditions which have been making the inhabitants of an area to relocate or leaving such area e.g. natural disasters, forced eviction, diseases, lack of infrastructural facilities etc. Rental value is defined as the periodic payment made by an occupier to a property owner for the use or enjoyment of property owner’s accommodation. (Salau and Shitta-Gbeko, 2004). The rental payment may be made annually bi-annually, quarterly, monthly etc. An increase in population of an area being induced by any means brings about increase in rental value. HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENTS OF ABUJA AND SATELLITE SETTLEMENTS Federal government of Nigeria, having realized the inadequacies of Lagos as the nation’s capital, decided in 1976 to establish a new Federal Capital in a location described by Late General Murtala as a place which possesses easy accessibility from all parts of the country by road, rail and air which would facilitate the administration of the country. He further stressed that the new capital shall serve as a symbol of Nigerian unity and greatness and from the view point of national security, be less vulnerable to external aggression, as it would be practically immune to sea – borne attack. Abuja a city of about 8,000 square kilometers in the central part of the country was selected as the new capital city. The few local inhabitants in the area, which needed to be moved out of the territory for planning purposes, would be resettled outside the area in places of their choice at Government expenses (Mabogunje, 1977). FCT Act was enacted in 1976; it vests the entire 8, 0000 square kilometers of the FCT land area in the Federal Government of Nigeria. The Master plan of Abuja listed 40 villages that would be relocated at the initial stage and additional 85 villages would have to be relocated as the city expends to the 3.1 million ultimate populations. (IPA, 1979; Jubril, 2006) GOVERNMENT POLICY CHANGES Four major Government policy changes were observed within the FCT between 1976 and 2003. This includes: • The First Policy Change-1978 The decision to relocate all the inhabitants of Abuja was reversed by this first policy change. The reason for this was that the population of the city was about 316,000 which were underestimated as between 25,000-50,000. This brought the compensation payable to the local inhabitants to about 1.8 Billion naira. Government 81 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe decided to spend the money on infrastructural development rather than compensation as stated by General Obasanjo on July 13th, 1978 • The Second Policy Change –1992 This is known as integration policy. This allows those that ready to remain in the FCT to be integrated therein. E.g. Garki village within Garki II District of the City in phase I was allowed to remain. • The Third Policy Change –1999 This brought the reversal of integration policy. Jabi, Kado, Gwarinpa and other villages within phase II of the city were slated for resettlement outside of FCC at Jibi Resettlement Town. This was subsequently occupied by men of Nigerian Police Force in 2003. • The Fourth Policy Change –2003 This is known as restoration policy embarked upon aiming at the complete restoration of original Abuja Master Plan. This involves the complete resettlement of all areas hitherto earmarked for resettlement by the plan. THE IMPACTs OF THESE POLICY CHANGES ON SQUATTER SETTLEMENTS AND HOUSING DEMOLITION The inconsistency in government policy with regard to resettlement in FCT brought about the springing up of squatter settlements within the FCT. However, section 44 (2) of the FCT Development Control Regulations states that it shall be unlawful to commence the excavation or the construction of any building or other structures without the permit from Development Control Department. Because development control was inadequate to timely enforce this legal provision, illegal developments within the territory were rampant. Early movement of government functions from Lagos to Abuja in 1982/1983 instead of 1986 initial planned also led to the emergence of number of shanty-towns and squatter settlements that were rapidly developed, generally unplanned, overcrowded and lacking basic amenities and infrastructure (Jubril, 2006). TABLE 1: LIST OF SQUATTER SETTLEMENTS WITHIN THE FCT. ID NAME TYPE AREA HA DISTRICT 1. BAKASI MARKET MARKET 20.7 CENTRAL AREA 2. ZONE 3 MECHANICS 5.9 WUSE I 3. GARKI VILLAGE/MARKETS 19.0 GARKI II 4. GUZAPE VILLAGE 225.8 GUZAPE 5. GARKI VILLAGE MARKET 14.7 GUDU 6. APO VILLAGE/MARKETS 46.8 DURUMI, GUDU 7. DURUMI SQUATTER 32.3 DURUMI 8. MABUSHI SQUATTER/MARKET 15.5 MABUSHI 9. KATAMPE VILLAGE 13.9 KATAMPE 10. GADUWA VILLAGE 9.4 GADUWA 11. DUTSE SQUATTER 189.0 DUTSE 12. DUTSE VILLAGE 21.1 DUTSE 13. WUMBA VILLAGE 5.3 WUMBA 82 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 14. MADA SQUATTER 165.4 OUTSIDE FCC 15. KURBO SQUATTER/MARKET 54.5 OUTSIDE FCC 16. KUCHIGORO OLD VILLAGE 3.7 KUKWABA 17. KUCHIGORO SQUATTER 59.9 KUKWABA 18. KARMAJIJI SQUATTER 37.9 KUKWABA 19. WUYE SQUATTER 2.4 WUYE 20. JABI SQUATTER 14.0 JABI 21. JABI SQUATTER 4.3 JABI 22. JABI/DAKIBIYU SQUATTER 51.6 JABI/DAKIBIYU 23. UTAKO SQUATTER 11.9 UTAKO 24. KARMO SQUATTER 524.0 KARMO 25. GWARINPA SQUATTER 408.0 GWARINPA I 26. DAPE SQUATTER 455.0 DAPE TOTAL 2412 SOURCE: ABUJA GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM (AGIS), 2004 CAUSES OF SQUATTER SETTLMENTS WITHIN FCT The following reasons are adduced as the reasons for the springing up of squatter settlements within the FCT (a) Government Policy Changes. The inconsistency in government policy makes many to believe that government was not serious with the issue of resettlements. (b) Lack of low-cost Housing: The available government houses have been occupied. The private developers are interested in the development of mansions for high income earners in order to maximize profit. (c) Low compensation Payable: Nigerian law only makes provision for compensation payable on unexhausted improvements and economic trees under the heads of claims. Ground rent payable in year of acquisition is considered as compensation on bare land. People resort to selling their lands at a much higher value to individuals and other private concerns. (d) Ignorance Majority of people are of ignorance of the fact that FCT landmass is vest in the government of the Federation. Also that alienation of customary holding is not to be done without the consent of the Authority. This breach of law leads to the flourishing of a vibrant illegal land market, which was perceived to be the easiest way to land acquisition by squatters. Traditional rulers perceived the local land to be their ancestral land and found it more expedient and lucrative to sell it out rightly without resorting to government regulatory bodies. Slow processes of obtaining government title to land, building plan approval etc, and being very expensive makes a lot of squatters to resort to faster ways of obtaining illegal and informal land and development of unplanned and squatter settlements. (e) High Population The massive influx of people into territory coupled with weak development control apparatus, contributed to the shortages of houses and subsequent growth of squatter settlements. (f) Weak Mortgage Institution. 83 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe Lastly, lack of well organized mortgage institutions debar private developers in obtaining long-term housing loan for low-income group in the society REASONS FOR DEMOLITION OF SQUATTER SETTLEMENT IN FCT These are the reasons why government embarks on demolition of squatter settlements within Federal Capital Territory (FCT). 1. Distortion of Original Master Plan The existence of the settlements within the city area and its environs constitutes a serious distortion of the original Master Plan of the city and that of the Regional Development Plans of the FCT. 2. Crime Squatter settlements have become a breeding ground for unscrupulous elements leading to increasing crime rate within the city and it’s environ. 3. Low Revenue Generation Government has been losing a lot of revenue because nobody is actually in charge of squatter settlements. Revenue is neither generated nor collected by either the FCT administration or the Municipal Councils in these settlements leading to dwindling revenue generation. 4. Health Hazard Existence of these squatter settlements poses serious health hazards not only to the people residing within the settlements, but to other inhabitants of the FCT because of the squalid conditions. 5. Display of Commitment by the Government. It is very evident that, for government to be taken serious, it has to turn the current situation around for good. Since year 2003, the FCT administration has concluded to return the city to the original provisions of the Master Plan by the demolition of these squatter settlements. (Ago and Jibril, 1999; Ayileka and Kalgo, 2001; Jibril, 2006; 1990 and 2000). RESEARCH METHODOLOGY The research work covers Sabon-Lugbe village demolition, eviction and relocation and its effect on the rental value. The population size for the study is about 2050 people relocated to FHA, Lugbe. The data was obtained from Resettlement Department of Federal Capital Development Authority (FCDA), Abuja. The sample size is 20% of the total population size which is about 400. This constituted the total number of questionnaires distributed. However, due to the problems of identification of the affected persons in their current abode, only 122 questionnaires were being retrieved. The analysis of which is displayed below. Trend Analysis was used to graphically show and statistically analyze the annual rental values trend of both the residential and commercial properties. This is shown in the appendix. 84 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 DATA ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION TABLE 2: Questionnaires Distribution and Retrieval in the Study Area S/NO QUESTIONNAIRE NUMBER 1. Distribution 400 2. Retrieved 122 Source: Field Survey, April, 2011 Table 2 above shows that, out of 400 questionnaires distributed, 122 were successfully completed and retrieved. This constitutes 30.5% of the total questionnaires distributed. ATBLE 3: SEX OF THE RESPONDENTS SEX RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE MALE 88 72% FEMALE 34 28% TOTAL 122 100% Source: Field Survey, April, 2011 Table 3 above reveals that majority (about 72%) of residents are male, while about 28% are female. TABLE 4: AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE RESPONDENTS AGE RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE DISTRIBUTION Below 20 18 14.7% 21-40 56 46.0% 41-60 33 27.0% Above 60 15 12.3% TOTAL 122 100% Source: Field Survey, April, 2011 Table 4 displays the age distribution of the respondents. Majority (46%) of the respondents are within the age bracket 21-40 years old while age bracket below 20 years, 41-60 years and above 60 years constitute about 15%, 27% and 12% respectively. TABLE 5: IMPACT OF DEMOLITION ON RENTAL VALUE IN THE STUDY IMPACT ON RESPONDENT PERCENTAGE RENT Yes 98 80 No 24 20 TOTAL 122 100% Source: Field Survey, April, 2011 85 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe ]Table 5 shows the responses of the affected people in the demolition exercise with respect to the impact of the displacement on the property rental values in FHA housing Estate, Lugbe. Majority about 80% of the respondents are of the opinion that the housing demolition and forced eviction have serious impact on the property rental values in the study area., however, about 20% of the respondents says that the demolition has no impact on the property rental value. TABLE 6: RENTAL VALUE OF RESIDENTIAL PROPERTEIES IN THE STUDY AREA BEFORE AND AFTER THE DEMOLITION. TYPES 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 BEDROOM 60,000 65,000 75,000 85,000 100,000 220,000 2 BEDROOM 135,000 140,000 170,000 165,000 180,000 300,000 3BEDROOM 180,000 200,000 210,000 220,000 250,000 550,000 Source: Field Survey, April, 2011 TABLE 7: RENTAL VALUE OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTY IN THE STUDY AREA BEFORE AND AFTER THE DEMOLITION. TYPES 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LOCK-UP SHOP 50,000 60,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 120,000 OFFICE 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 90,000 160,000 (4MX4M) Source: Field Survey, August, 2010 DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS The study reveals the following findings 1. Majority (46%) of the affected persons in the housing demolition and the forced eviction of Sabon-Lugbe village were between 21-40 years of age. 2. About 80% of the respondents are of the opinion that the housing demolition contributed to the change in rental trend in FHA Housing, Lugbe, Abuja, FCT. This happens because of population influx into the area from Sabon-Lugbe squatter settlements during the demolition exercise of March, 2009. 3. The residential property annual rental trends changed in 2009-2010 from normal trend to 9333.33, 82333.3 and 67333.3 for 1 bedroom, 2 bedroom and 3 bedroom flats 86 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 respectively in FHA Housing, Lugbe. This was due to the population increase in the study area brought about by the housing demolition and forced eviction in Sabon- Lugbe village, Abuja, FCT in March, 2009. (See Appendix) 4. Change in annual rental trend of commercial property of 17933.3 and 36000 were experienced in the study area due to high demand brought about by population upsurge from Sabon-Lugbe evictees. (See Appendix) RECOMMENDATIONS The following recommendations are hereby made based on the findings of the research study. (1) Government should as a matter of urgency creates a prompt awareness for people whose landed properties were to be affected by the demolition in the federal capital territory. (2) The areas being demolished and cleared should be assumed immediately and development should be started by the acquiring authority in order to avoid re-entry by squatters. (3) More commitment and seriousness should be displayed by government through consistent and well directed policy implementation. (4) Complete demolition and clearance should be embarked upon by government rather than selective demolition as the indigenes whose houses were spared are harboring the squatters whose properties were demolished. (5) More satellite towns should be established by government through the Public Private Partnership (PPP) in the areas of infrastructural provision and housing construction. (6) Development Control Department of FCDA should be strengthened strategically and materially in order to perform its functions effectively. (7) Enough notice should be given to the prospective evictees before forced eviction and housing demolition is carried out in the future this shall reduce the socio-psychological trauma being experienced by the affected people.. (8) More amenities should be provided in FHA Lugbe Housing Estate to supplement the increased population demand currently experienced in the study area. (9) The current dualization of the airport road together with Airport-Gwarinpa Housing Estate linkage road currently being embarked upon by Federal Government is a right step in the right direction to solve traffic hold-upon currently experienced by the FHA, Lugbe inhabitants along airport road. (10) Government should continue to pursue the realization of original Abuja Master Plan in order for the Federal Capital City to be a role model for all the other state capitals in Nigeria and be competing with other federal capital cities of the developed worlds. 87 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe. CONCLUSION The housing demolition and forced eviction of the Sabon-Lugbe village in Abuja brought about untold hardship on the affected persons. The forced eviction brought about population influx into FHA Housing Estate, Lugbe and has actually affected the housing demand in the area. The rental value doubled within a year of demolition and brought about unexpected pressure on the available infrastructural facilities in the area e.g. the traffic congestion, water, electricity etc government needs to be more consistent in her policy execution with regard to ensuring that the original Abuja Master Plan is actually followed. Private sector and all necessary stakeholders need to be involved in the implementation of the Abuja Master plan. REFERENCES Agbola, T, and Jinadu (1997):” Forced Eviction and Forced Relocation in Nigeria: The Experience of those Evicted from Maroko in 1990”. Environment and Urbanization, Vol. 9, No 2. Pages 271-286 download on line from http://eau.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/9/2/27 on 11/01/2011 Ago, U.S and Jibril, I.U et al (Editors) (1999): Report of the Ministerial Committee for The Appraisal of Physical Planning and Development Issues in the FCT, Abuja MFCT/FCDA Ayileka, O. and Kalgo, M.S.U. 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Jibril, U.I (2006): “Resettlement Issues, Squatter Settlements and Problems of Law Administration in Abuja”. Being a Paper Presented in Accra Ghana at 5th FIG Regional Conference March 8-11. 88 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 IPA (1979): The Master Plan for Abuja the New Federal Capital of Nigeria FCDA. Jibril, I.U. (2000): Policy Changes on Resettlement and Law Administration in Abuja. Nigeria’s FCT in Afolabi J.F. et al (Editors) Issues in Land Administration and Development in Northern Nigeria Proceedings of the National Workshop on Law Administration and Development in Northern Nigeria, Department of Geography, Bayero University, Kano Nigeria. Jibril, I.U. (1990): “Resettlement Problems in Usman Town of Nigeria’s New Federal Capital Territory”. Unpublished Msc. Thesis, Department of Geography. Bayero University Kano. Schechla, J. (1994); “Forced Eviction as an increment of Demographic manipulation” Environment and Urbanization. Vol. 6, No 1, April Pages 85-105. Scudder, T and E. Colson (1981); “From Welfare to Development; a ConceptualFramework for the Analysis of Dislocated People” in Oliver Smith, Art and A. (Editors) (1981), Involuntary Migration and Resettlement: The Problems of Dislocated People, Westview Press, Colorado. Smith, D.W. (1976): “Urban Renewal in an Asian context: A Case study of Hong Kong”, Urban Studies Vol. 13, No 3, Pages 295-304. Salau, L.T and T. Shittu-Gbeko (2004): Principles of Introductory Valuation. Abike Press, Saki, Nigeria. 89 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe. APPENDIX Trend in Residential Rental Value in the Study Area-1 bedroom flat Linear Trend Model Yt = 9333.33 + 26142.9*t 220000 Actual Fits Forecasts Actual Fits values Forecasts 120000 MAPE: 27 MAD: 27238 20000 MSD: 1.02E+09 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 90 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 Trend in Residential Rental Value in the Study Area-2 bedroom flat Linear Trend Model Yt = 82333.3 + 27428.6*t 300000 Actual Fits Forecasts Actual Fits Forecasts values 200000 MAPE: 14 MAD: 27048 100000 MSD: 9.95E+08 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 91 The Impact of Housing Demolition and Force Eviction on Property Rental Values in Salau L. Tunde Abuja, Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Nigeria: A Case Study of Sabon Lugbe. Trend in Residential Rental Value in the Study Area-3 bedroom flat Linear Trend Model Yt = 67333.3 + 57428.6*t 600000 Actual Fits Forecasts 500000 Actual Fits Forecasts 400000 values 300000 200000 MAPE: 26 MAD: 70381 100000 MSD: 6.69E+09 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Time Trend in Residential Rental Value in the Study Area-Lock up Shop Linear Trend Model Yt = 17933.3 + 12542.9*t Actual Fits Forecasts 100000 Actual Fits Forecasts v a lu e s 50000 MAPE: 156 MAD: 21105 0 MSD: 6.61E+08 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 year 92 Journal of Environmental Sciences and Resource Management Volume 3, December 2011 Trend in Commercial Rental Value in the Study Area-Offices(4mx4m) Linear Trend Model Yt = 36000 + 15428.6*t Actual 150000 Fits Forecasts Actual Fits Forecasts values 100000 MAPE: 17 MAD: 16048 50000 MSD: 3.47E+08 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year 93
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