Russia Power Report Q2 2012

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Russia Power Report Q2 2012 Powered By Docstoc
					Russia Power Report Q2 2012
Published : June 2012               No. of Pages : 58               Price:US$1175




BMI View: Russia’s power sector faces a host of challenges. There is no disputing the size of the market
and the potential for domestic and foreign companies alike to invest. However, infrastructure is old and
inefficient, meaning a mountain of capital is required to develop the sector. Furthermore, the liberalisation
process has faltered. State gas monopoly Gazprom has strengthened its grip on the power industry and
this is not seen as a positive move by many outside Russia, while price controls could persist in the retail
segment.
It will be some time before renewables make a meaningful contribution to capacity, leaving Russia
dependent on a potent mix of fossil fuels, nuclear and conventional large-scale hydro-power. The nuclear
disaster in Japan is unlikely to influence Russian energy policy, while an abundance of gas and coal
resources point to these two sources maintaining a strong role in the overall electricity generation mix. In
fact, efforts by the state to maximise the export potential of its natural resources suggest there will be an
increased focus on nuclear energy and hydro generation over the next decade. Large-scale foreign
involvement in such projects seems unlikely and higher power prices may be needed to justify the
necessary investment.
Key trends and recent developments in the Russian electricity market include:
1.During the period 2012-2021, Russian power generation is expected to increase by an annual average
of 2.05%, reaching 1,198 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.0% gain in nuclear and
a 3.44% rise in renewables generation, offsetting a 0.88% average decline in oil-fired electricity supply.
Coal- and gas-fired power are each expected to increase by 1.18% and 2.54% per annum.
2. Following an assumed 3.3% increase in real GDP in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of
3.95% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall slightly from the current level of
142.8mn to 140.7mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 858TWh to
1,051TWh in 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is
forecast at 2.05%.
3. Thanks partly to the forecast rise in net generation, growth of which matches the underlying demand
trend, Russia’s power supply surplus is expected to edge higher over the medium term. A broadly stable
percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses of around 11.5% will slow the rate of build-up in
export capability. The theoretical net export potential is expected to peak at around 12.6TWh in 2020,
before slipping back below 10.0TWh in 2021.

Russia Power Industry Q2 2012

Table of Content

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Russia Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview 7
Regional Industry Overview .. 11
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 15
Russia Snapshot (Macro) .. 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 15
Russia Forecast Scenario.. 16
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity ... 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 18
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 20
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 22
Electricity Consumption 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 ... 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports . 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 ...
30
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 ... 30
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 32
Regulation And Competition 32
Pricing . 33
Key Projects Database . 34
Table: Russia Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 34
Business Environment .. 38
CEE Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings . 38
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 40
Russia Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 41
Rewards ... 41
Risks 42
Competitive Landscape . 43
FGC . 44
Inter RAO UES 44
Gazprom/Mosenergo ... 45
E.ON 46
Enel .. 46
Company Profiles ... 47
Inter RAO UES 47
Glossary of Terms .. 50
Table: Glossary of Terms . 50
Methodology and Sources 51
Industry Forecasts ... 51
Power Industry – Data Methodology ... 52
Generation and Consumption Data . 52
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 53
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology ... 54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56
Sources 57
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 16
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 18
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 20
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 22
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 28
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 28
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .
30
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 30
Table: Russia Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 30
Table: Russia Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids . 34
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 40
Table: Glossary of Terms . 50
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 56

				
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Description: Russia’s power sector faces a host of challenges. There is no disputing the size of the market and the potential for domestic and foreign companies alike to invest. However, infrastructure is old and inefficient, meaning a mountain of capital is required to develop the sector. Furthermore, the liberalisation process has faltered. State gas monopoly Gazprom has strengthened its grip on the power industry and this is not seen as a positive move by many outside Russia, while price controls could persist in the retail segment.