Germany Autos Report Q3 2012

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					Germany Autos Report Q3 2012
Published : May 2012                   No. of Pages : 72                  Price: US$1175




After a nearly 9% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in vehicles sales during 2011, new passenger car sales in
Germany grew a modest 2% y-o-y (to just over 1mn units) during the first four months of the year, in line
with BMI’s forecast of a marginal 1% y-o-y growth in car sales..Although commercial vehicle demand has
fallen marginally this year, our expectations of macroeconomic activity recovering in Q212 and Q312, and
the sharp rise in business expectations in recent months, indicate that our forecast of a 5% growth in
commercial vehicle sales remain on the cards. We accordingly keep our 2012 forecast of a cumulative
1.5% y-o-y growth unchanged this quarter. Similarly, we are cautious about any significant growth in
German vehicle exports and production in view of economic headwinds in the eurozone, and accordingly
forecast growth of 2.4% y-o-y and 4.4% y-o-y respectively during the year. The caution was also visible in
Mercedes-Benz’s plans to reduce its research and development (R&D) budget by more than EUR1.5bn
(US$1.94bn) annually, as revealed by R&D Chief Thomas Webber. The carmaker said it will achieve its
target by reducing the number of vehicle platforms and using similar components across segments.
Two other key trends have been dominant among German auto firms this quarter. The companies are
increasingly looking at overseas acquisitions, partnerships or investments to help them develop their
portfolio or expand their presence in key emerging markets. In March 2012, Daimler increased its stake in
Russian truck maker Kamaz from 15% to 25% plus one, in a move which BMI sees as part of the firm's
attempt to strengthen its presence in the market. In the same month, BMW signed a contract with
Japanese automaker Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) for collaborative research on next-generation
battery cells, in line with BMW’s broader aims of launching an electric city car and a rechargeable hybrid
car by 2013. On the other hand, Audi, in April 2012, revealed it will be looking to invest up to US$2bn in
building a new plant for production of its Q5 sports utility vehicle (SUV) in Mexico by 2016. BMI believes
the move is highly strategic, as it will help Audi compete with its bigger rivals in North America, particularly
in the US, as well as tap into the growing trend of premiumisation in Latin America.
However, competition is tight among the German brands, with each company looking to outshine the
other. The latest example of this was Audi’s acquisition of the high-performance motorcycle manufacturer
Ducati from Italian buyout firm Investindustrial. Although Volkswagen (VW) sees Ducati's high
performance and lightweight construction as an ideal fit for Audi, the move is broadly aimed at providing
VW a strong entry point into the two-wheeler segment and enabling it to compete with rival BMW.
However, we believe that the acquisition is far from strategic, given that VW already has as many as 10
brands under its banner and needs to focus on alternative fuel development while also clearing up the
long-awaited merger between MAN and Scania and integrating its automotive group with Porsche.

Germany Autos Market Q3 2012

Table of Content

Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
Germany Autos SWOT ... 6
Germany Political SWOT .. 7
Germany Economic SWOT 7
Germany Business Environment SWOT . 8
Global Overview ... 9
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012... 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings .. 12
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings . 12
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Regional Overview . 17
Audi's Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy ... 17
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario .. 21
Table: Germany - Economic Activity ... 25
Industry Forecast Scenario Domestic Sales ... 26
Table: Germany – Autos Sales . 26
Production ... 28
Table: Germany – Autos Production ... 29
Trade ... 31
Table: Germany – Autos Trade 31
Competitive Landscape 32
Historical Background .. 32
Major Industry Players . 34
Table: German New Vehicles Sales By Brand (Units) . 34
Passenger Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis . 36
Table: Germany – Passenger Car Segment . 36
New Investments .. 36
Company News . 37
The Alternative Fuel Race ... 43
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis .. 45
Table: Germany – Commercial Vehicle Segment . 45
Segment Trends . 46
Commercial Vehicles To Contract In 2012 Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty .. 46
New Investments ... 47
Company News . 47
Table: Timeline For MAN-Scania Merger ... 48
Motorcycles – Forecast & Analysis .. 52
Table: Germany – Motorcycle Segment ... 52
Segment News ... 53
Company News . 55
Suppliers . 57
Continentals' New Investment To Be Aimed At EM And DM Growth .. 57
BASF To Strengthen Electromobility Participation With Ovonic Purchase . 58
Company Profiles ... 60
Volkswagen (VW). 60
BMW 62
Mercedes-Benz . 64
Robert Bosch 66
Continental .. 68
BMI Methodology ... 70
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model .. 70
Sources 71
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012. 9
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe . 16
Table: Germany - Economic Activity . 25
Table: Germany – Autos Sales . 26
Table: Germany – Autos Production . 29
Table: Germany – Autos Trade . 31
Table: German New Vehicles Sales By Brand (Units) . 34
Table: Germany – Passenger Car Segment . 36
Table: Germany – Commercial Vehicle Segment . 45
Table: Timeline For MAN-Scania Merger . 48
Table: Germany – Motorcycle Segment . 52

				
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