Commodity Daily Report-June 13, 2012 - Alankit Assignments
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Daily Commodity Watch
June 13, 2012 www.alankit.com
Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:
Crude Oil futures ended lower in the domestic market on Tuesday
amid concerns that the deepening debt crises in Europe may hit fuel
demand. Fitch ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s
ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per
cent on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt saddled economy may
miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013, raising concerns
that Europe’s debt woes were deepening and dimming the demand
outlook for the fuel.
US crude oil stockpiles rose 1.6 million barrels to 385.7 million barrels
last week, the American Petroleum Institute said. Crude futures also
fell in the domestic market on Tuesday as a rise in US crude oil
stockpiles signaled weakening fuel demand in the world’s largest Crude oil intraday chart
crude oil consuming nation.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans was
quoted in the media on Tuesday that he backed measures necessary
to stimulate faster job growth in the US. Crude Oil futures pared
losses in the domestic market and closed higher in the overseas
market on Tuesday amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will
undertake more policy easing measures to spur economic growth in
the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook for the
fuel.
Gold futures closed higher in the domestic market and overseas
market on Tuesday as the recent price declines in the bullion lured
buyers, while deepening concerns over Europe’s debt crises also
Copper intraday chart
attracted some safe haven demand for the precious metal.
Moreover, a weaker dollar and speculation of further US monetary
stimulus also spurred demand for the bullion.
Copper futures closed lower in the domestic market and overseas
market on Tuesday amid worries that the deepening debt turmoil in
Europe may curb the demand for the base metal over the coming
months.
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Market Overview Commodity Indices at MCX
Indices Close PCP %Chg
On June 12, 2012 (Tuesday), the domestic commodity markets ended on a positive
MCXCOMDEX 3643.48 3638.50 0.13
note, after a volatile trade, on hopes that US policy makers would provide the
MCXMETAL 4974.01 4960.26 0.27
stimulus to spur the economic growth, thus boosted the demand prospects for
MCXENERGY 3114.19 3118.71 (0.14)
industrial commodities. Moreover, positive developments on bailout deals for
Spain’s distressed banks also raised hopes that rescue fund would help in MCXAGRI 2769.69 2762.25 0.26
containing Europe’s major debt crisis. These developments will have a positive
impact in the market in the near term as it has significantly reduced the need for Index at NCDEX
the Spanish government to seek funding from the market for some time. Index Close PCP %Chg
Dhaanya 2386.65 2371.35 0.65
Most of the major indices, at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), settled in the
positive terrain except MCXENERGY. MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,643.48 (up by 0.13 Top Gainers at MCX
per cent), MCX closed at 4,974.01 (up by 0.27 per cent), MCXAGRI closed at
Commodity Expiry Close (`) PCP (`) % Chg
2,769.69 (up by 0.26 per cent), while MCXENERGY closed at 3,114.19 (down by 0.14
Mentha Oil Aug 1400.70 1359.90 3
per cent).
Mentha Oil July 185.30 1346.50 2.88
Almond June 434.25 422.25 2.84
MCXAGRI was the top gainers among all the indices due to significant gain in the
Mentha Oil June 1368 1331.40 2.75
agri-commodities like menthe oil, almond, potato etc. Mentha oil futures gained
Potato Aug 1237 1207.60 2.4
around 3 per cent on reports of excessive dry weather in the key growing areas
resulting in a fall in the output of the same. Moreover, rise in fresh long positions by
speculators at the existing lower price levels amid firm spot demand from Top Losers at MCX
pharmaceutical industries also kept the futures prices in the positive zone this Commodity Expiry Close(`) PCP (`) % Chg
week. Cardamom Sep 1187 1230.10 (3.50)
Cardamom Aug 1196 1239 (3.47)
However, cardamom futures, on Tuesday, remained on the sellers' radar on the Cardamom July 1219.40 1250.30 (2.47)
back of profits booking by speculators and fragile demand in the spot market from Crude Oil Nov 4835 4938 (2.09)
the local buyers amid expectation of higher supplies from the major producing Brent Crude June 5405 5509 (1.89)
regions. The cardamom futures for June contract reached at `1276 per kg, highest
level since June 06, 2012, and but could not sustain at that level and declined after Top Gainers at NCDEX
mid-day trading session. Commodity Expiry Close(`) PCP (`) % Chg
Chilli June 5128 4930 4.02
Moreover, MCXMETAL also ended in the positive terrain as precious metals Potato Sep 1255 1214.10 3.37
experienced bullish trend yesterday. Gold futures for near term contract, on Chilli July 5260 5104 3.06
Tuesday, crossed 30,000 levels once again in the domestic market on speculation Cot.Oil Seed Dec 1219 1185 2.87
that US policy makers will announce additional stimulus measures to boost growth, Castor Seed June 2931 2853 2.73
increasing demand for bullion as a hedge against inflation. The price for August
contract advanced as much as 0.92 per cent to `30,040 per 10 grams, and settled at Top Losers at NCDEX
`29,968 per 10 grams on the MCX. Commodity Expiry Close (`) PCP (`) % Chg
Pepper Dec 40300 41395 (2.65)
The bullion dealers are expecting more stimulus from the U.S. and other debt- Turmeric Aug 3718 3782 (1.69)
ridden nation to spur their economy, and that is supportive for gold. Federal Steel Long June 32260 32810 (1.68)
Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said yesterday that he would Turmeric July 3658 3710 (1.40)
support a series of measures to boost the job growth in the U.S., showing his Chana Sep 4255 4309 (1.25)
interest for more stimulus actions.
On Tuesday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were Crude
Oil for June 2012 contract with 235999 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract
with 167256 lots, copper for June 2012 contract with 140599 lots, Silver M for June
2012 contract with 124549 lots and Copper M for June 2012 contract with 80567
lots.
At MCX, Silver futures for July 2012 contract closed at Rs. 55,060 per kg, up by 0.67
per cent, after opening at Rs. 54668 against the previous closing of Rs. 54694 per
kg. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 55,240 till the closing..
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Fundamental Market Overview
MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
June, 2012 4638 4651 4662 4571 4659 -0.45 235,999
July, 2012 4681 4683 4703 4615 4700 -0.40 27,898
Crude Oil futures fell more than 0.35 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday amid concerns that the
deepening debt crises in Europe may hit fuel demand. Fitch ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s
ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per cent on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt
saddled economy may miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013, raising concerns that Europe’s debt
woes were deepening and dimming the demand outlook for the fuel. Crude futures also fell after the American
Crude oil futures ended lower Petroleum Institute said that US crude oil stockpiles rose 1.6 million barrels to 385.7 million barrels last week,
in the domestic market on signaling weakening fuel demand in the world’s largest crude oil consuming nation. Sentiment also weakened
Tuesday amid worries that the
after the US Energy Information Administration lowered its 2012 global oil demand forecast by 150,000 barrels
deepening debt contagion in
Europe may hit fuel demand per day to 810,000 barrels per day. Crude futures also fell after the OPEC said that the global oil markets remain
oversupplied even after its output fell for the first time in eight months in May 2012.
However, crude futures pared losses in the domestic market and closed higher in the overseas market on
Tuesday amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will undertake more policy easing measures to spur
economic growth in the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook for the fuel. The Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that he backed measures necessary to stimulate faster job
growth in the US. At the MCX, crude oil futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 1.89 per cent at `4,571
per barrel and settled at `4,638 per barrel, down by 0.45 per cent.
Currently, Crude futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $82.85 per barrel, down by 0.56 per cent at 10:15 AM IST amid
speculation that the OPEC will keep its production quotas unchanged despite the recent slide in crude oil prices.
MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
August, 2012 29968 29798 30040 29680 29765 0.68 46,165
October,2012 30297 30145 30365 30024 30101 0.65 1,288
Gold futures rose more than 0.60 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday as stockists and investors
created fresh positions in the precious metal amid firm global cues. Gold futures rose in the overseas market
on Tuesday as the recent price declines in the bullion lured buyers, while deepening concerns over Europe’s
debt crises also attracted some safe haven demand for the precious metal. A surge in Spanish ten year bond
yields raised concerns that Europe’s debt woes may be deepening, spurring safe haven demand for gold.
Moreover, speculation that the Federal Reserve may undertake more monetary easing measures to spur US
Gold futures ended higher in the economic growth also bolstered the demand outlook for the precious metal. Further monetary easing is bullish
domestic market on Tuesday as for gold demand, given that the precious metal is considered a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary
investors and stockists created stimulus.
fresh positions in the precious
metal amid firm global cues The rally in Gold futures was also supported by a weaker dollar as a softer greenback boosted the demand for
the precious metal as an alternative asset. A weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for those holding
other currencies, thus spurring its demand. On the MCX, gold futures for the August 2012 contract rose as
much as 0.92 per cent to touch a day’s high of `30,040 per 10 grams and settled at `29,968 per 10 grams, up
by 0.68 per cent.
Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,608.80 per ounce,
down by 0.24 per cent at 10:30AM IST.
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
MCX Copper (`/Kg)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
June, 2012 410.80 411.15 413.30 409.30 411.45 -0.16 140,599
August, 2012 415.85 416.15 418.30 414.30 416.35 -0.12 8,614
Copper futures fell more than 0.10 per cent in the domestic market and closed lower in the overseas market on
Tuesday amid worries that the deepening debt turmoil in Europe may curb the demand for the base metal over
the coming months. Optimism over Spain’s 100 billion euro banking bailout soon faded as investors doubted that
the rescue aid for Spanish banks may not fix Europe’s debt crises. Sentiment weakened further after Fitch ratings
downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per cent
Copper futures ended lower in
on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt saddled economy may miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013,
the domestic market on
raising concerns that Europe’s debt woes were deepening, and dimming the demand outlook for the base metal.
Tuesday as the lingering debt
The Euro area is the second largest global copper consumer.
crises in Europe dimmed the
demand outlook for the base
However, the losses in the base metal were curbed by speculation that the Federal Reserve will undertake more
metal
policy easing measures to spur economic growth in the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook
for the base metal. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that he backed measures
necessary to stimulate faster job growth in the US. A pickup in economic activity in the US may spur demand for
the base metal. On the MCX, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 0.52 per cent at `409.30
per Kg and settled at `410.80 per Kg, down by 0.16 per cent.
Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3340 per pound,
down by 0.33 per cent at 10:37 AM IST.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Date Time (IST) Economic Data Country Forecast Prior
13-06-2012 11:00 AM German Final CPI m/m EUR -0.2%
06:00 PM PPI m/m USD -0.6%
06:00 PM Retail Sales m/m USD -0.1%
LME statistics as on June 12, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
Commodity Lead Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc
Cash Buyer 1893 1925.50 7383.50 17080 19600 1877.50
Cash Seller & Settlement 1893.50 1926 7384 17085 19650 1878
LME Index Value as on June 12, 2012 - 3,209.8*
*Last available public data on LME website
Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
Commodity Expiry PCP R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 Trend
Gold Aug,12 29968 30256 30112 29890 29750 29536 Up
Silver July,12 55076 55670 55377 54938 54673 54195 Up
Crude Oil June,12 4638 4714 4676 4623 4585 4532 Up
Copper June,12 410.8 415.1 412.9 411.1 408.9 407.1 Up
Natural Gas June,12 126.1 129.9 128 124.9 123 119.9 Down
Nickel June,12 949.8 975.2 962.5 954.1 941.4 933.1 Up
Lead June,12 105.6 107.1 106.3 105.8 105.1 104.5 Up
Zinc June,12 104.65 105.8 105.2 104.8 104.2 103.7 Up
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Abbreviations:
MCX : Multi Commodity Exchange
NCDEX : National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
PCP : Previous Closing Price
NYMEX : New York Mercantile Exchange
COMEX : Commodity Exchange
LME : London Metal Exchange
OPEC : Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
EIA : Energy Information Administration
ECB : European Central Bank
OPEC : Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
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