Commodity Daily Report-June 13, 2012 - Alankit Assignments

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Commodity Daily Report-June 13, 2012 - Alankit Assignments Powered By Docstoc
					             Daily Commodity Watch


                                             June 13, 2012                                               www.alankit.com
                                                                              Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:

 Crude Oil futures ended lower in the domestic market on Tuesday
  amid concerns that the deepening debt crises in Europe may hit fuel
  demand. Fitch ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s
  ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per
  cent on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt saddled economy may
  miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013, raising concerns
  that Europe’s debt woes were deepening and dimming the demand
  outlook for the fuel.

 US crude oil stockpiles rose 1.6 million barrels to 385.7 million barrels
  last week, the American Petroleum Institute said. Crude futures also
  fell in the domestic market on Tuesday as a rise in US crude oil
  stockpiles signaled weakening fuel demand in the world’s largest            Crude oil intraday chart
  crude oil consuming nation.

 The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans was
  quoted in the media on Tuesday that he backed measures necessary
  to stimulate faster job growth in the US. Crude Oil futures pared
  losses in the domestic market and closed higher in the overseas
  market on Tuesday amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will
  undertake more policy easing measures to spur economic growth in
  the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook for the
  fuel.

 Gold futures closed higher in the domestic market and overseas
  market on Tuesday as the recent price declines in the bullion lured
  buyers, while deepening concerns over Europe’s debt crises also
                                                                              Copper intraday chart
  attracted some safe haven demand for the precious metal.
  Moreover, a weaker dollar and speculation of further US monetary
  stimulus also spurred demand for the bullion.

 Copper futures closed lower in the domestic market and overseas
  market on Tuesday amid worries that the deepening debt turmoil in
  Europe may curb the demand for the base metal over the coming
  months.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

 Market Overview                                                                                           Commodity Indices at MCX
                                                                                               Indices         Close                PCP           %Chg
 On June 12, 2012 (Tuesday), the domestic commodity markets ended on a positive
                                                                                            MCXCOMDEX         3643.48              3638.50         0.13
 note, after a volatile trade, on hopes that US policy makers would provide the
                                                                                            MCXMETAL          4974.01              4960.26         0.27
 stimulus to spur the economic growth, thus boosted the demand prospects for
                                                                                            MCXENERGY         3114.19              3118.71        (0.14)
 industrial commodities. Moreover, positive developments on bailout deals for
 Spain’s distressed banks also raised hopes that rescue fund would help in                  MCXAGRI           2769.69              2762.25         0.26
 containing Europe’s major debt crisis. These developments will have a positive
 impact in the market in the near term as it has significantly reduced the need for                                 Index at NCDEX
 the Spanish government to seek funding from the market for some time.                          Index          Close                PCP           %Chg
                                                                                              Dhaanya         2386.65              2371.35         0.65
 Most of the major indices, at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), settled in the
 positive terrain except MCXENERGY. MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,643.48 (up by 0.13                                   Top Gainers at MCX
 per cent), MCX closed at 4,974.01 (up by 0.27 per cent), MCXAGRI closed at
                                                                                            Commodity      Expiry       Close (`)      PCP (`)   % Chg
 2,769.69 (up by 0.26 per cent), while MCXENERGY closed at 3,114.19 (down by 0.14
                                                                                            Mentha Oil     Aug          1400.70        1359.90   3
 per cent).
                                                                                            Mentha Oil     July         185.30         1346.50   2.88
                                                                                            Almond         June         434.25         422.25    2.84
 MCXAGRI was the top gainers among all the indices due to significant gain in the
                                                                                            Mentha Oil     June         1368           1331.40   2.75
 agri-commodities like menthe oil, almond, potato etc. Mentha oil futures gained
                                                                                            Potato         Aug          1237           1207.60   2.4
 around 3 per cent on reports of excessive dry weather in the key growing areas
 resulting in a fall in the output of the same. Moreover, rise in fresh long positions by
 speculators at the existing lower price levels amid firm spot demand from                                      Top Losers at MCX
 pharmaceutical industries also kept the futures prices in the positive zone this           Commodity      Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
 week.                                                                                      Cardamom       Sep         1187           1230.10    (3.50)
                                                                                            Cardamom       Aug         1196           1239       (3.47)
 However, cardamom futures, on Tuesday, remained on the sellers' radar on the               Cardamom       July        1219.40        1250.30    (2.47)
 back of profits booking by speculators and fragile demand in the spot market from          Crude Oil      Nov         4835           4938       (2.09)
 the local buyers amid expectation of higher supplies from the major producing              Brent Crude    June        5405           5509       (1.89)
 regions. The cardamom futures for June contract reached at `1276 per kg, highest
 level since June 06, 2012, and but could not sustain at that level and declined after                       Top Gainers at NCDEX
 mid-day trading session.                                                                   Commodity      Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
                                                                                            Chilli         June        5128           4930       4.02
 Moreover, MCXMETAL also ended in the positive terrain as precious metals                   Potato         Sep         1255           1214.10    3.37
 experienced bullish trend yesterday. Gold futures for near term contract, on               Chilli         July        5260           5104       3.06
 Tuesday, crossed 30,000 levels once again in the domestic market on speculation            Cot.Oil Seed   Dec         1219           1185       2.87
 that US policy makers will announce additional stimulus measures to boost growth,          Castor Seed    June        2931           2853       2.73
 increasing demand for bullion as a hedge against inflation. The price for August
 contract advanced as much as 0.92 per cent to `30,040 per 10 grams, and settled at                           Top Losers at NCDEX
 `29,968 per 10 grams on the MCX.                                                           Commodity      Expiry      Close (`)      PCP (`)    % Chg
                                                                                            Pepper         Dec         40300          41395      (2.65)
 The bullion dealers are expecting more stimulus from the U.S. and other debt-              Turmeric       Aug         3718           3782       (1.69)
 ridden nation to spur their economy, and that is supportive for gold. Federal              Steel Long     June        32260          32810      (1.68)
 Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said yesterday that he would               Turmeric       July        3658           3710       (1.40)
 support a series of measures to boost the job growth in the U.S., showing his              Chana          Sep         4255           4309       (1.25)
 interest for more stimulus actions.

 On Tuesday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were Crude
 Oil for June 2012 contract with 235999 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract
 with 167256 lots, copper for June 2012 contract with 140599 lots, Silver M for June
 2012 contract with 124549 lots and Copper M for June 2012 contract with 80567
 lots.



 At MCX, Silver futures for July 2012 contract closed at Rs. 55,060 per kg, up by 0.67
 per cent, after opening at Rs. 54668 against the previous closing of Rs. 54694 per
 kg. It touched the intra-day high of Rs. 55,240 till the closing..
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                        Fundamental Market Overview
                                                               MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
    Contract                Close            Open             High       Low          PCP                  % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012               4638             4651             4662            4571          4659           -0.45                  235,999
    July, 2012               4681             4683             4703            4615          4700           -0.40                   27,898

                                          Crude Oil futures fell more than 0.35 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday amid concerns that the
                                          deepening debt crises in Europe may hit fuel demand. Fitch ratings downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s
                                          ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per cent on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt
                                          saddled economy may miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013, raising concerns that Europe’s debt
                                          woes were deepening and dimming the demand outlook for the fuel. Crude futures also fell after the American
     Crude oil futures ended lower        Petroleum Institute said that US crude oil stockpiles rose 1.6 million barrels to 385.7 million barrels last week,
     in the domestic market on            signaling weakening fuel demand in the world’s largest crude oil consuming nation. Sentiment also weakened
     Tuesday amid worries that the
                                          after the US Energy Information Administration lowered its 2012 global oil demand forecast by 150,000 barrels
     deepening debt contagion in
     Europe may hit fuel demand           per day to 810,000 barrels per day. Crude futures also fell after the OPEC said that the global oil markets remain
                                          oversupplied even after its output fell for the first time in eight months in May 2012.

                                          However, crude futures pared losses in the domestic market and closed higher in the overseas market on
                                          Tuesday amid speculation that the Federal Reserve will undertake more policy easing measures to spur
                                          economic growth in the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook for the fuel. The Federal
                                          Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that he backed measures necessary to stimulate faster job
                                          growth in the US. At the MCX, crude oil futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 1.89 per cent at `4,571
                                          per barrel and settled at `4,638 per barrel, down by 0.45 per cent.
       Currently, Crude futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $82.85 per barrel, down by 0.56 per cent at 10:15 AM IST amid
       speculation that the OPEC will keep its production quotas unchanged despite the recent slide in crude oil prices.

                                                                MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
    Contract                 Close          Open              High        Low         PCP                   % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    August, 2012             29968           29798            30040           29680          29765             0.68                   46,165
    October,2012             30297           30145            30365           30024          30101             0.65                    1,288

                                             Gold futures rose more than 0.60 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday as stockists and investors
                                             created fresh positions in the precious metal amid firm global cues. Gold futures rose in the overseas market
                                             on Tuesday as the recent price declines in the bullion lured buyers, while deepening concerns over Europe’s
                                             debt crises also attracted some safe haven demand for the precious metal. A surge in Spanish ten year bond
                                             yields raised concerns that Europe’s debt woes may be deepening, spurring safe haven demand for gold.
                                             Moreover, speculation that the Federal Reserve may undertake more monetary easing measures to spur US
     Gold futures ended higher in the        economic growth also bolstered the demand outlook for the precious metal. Further monetary easing is bullish
     domestic market on Tuesday as           for gold demand, given that the precious metal is considered a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary
     investors and stockists created         stimulus.
     fresh positions in the precious
     metal amid firm global cues             The rally in Gold futures was also supported by a weaker dollar as a softer greenback boosted the demand for
                                             the precious metal as an alternative asset. A weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for those holding
                                             other currencies, thus spurring its demand. On the MCX, gold futures for the August 2012 contract rose as
                                             much as 0.92 per cent to touch a day’s high of `30,040 per 10 grams and settled at `29,968 per 10 grams, up
                                             by 0.68 per cent.

                                             Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,608.80 per ounce,
                                             down by 0.24 per cent at 10:30AM IST.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                                   MCX Copper (`/Kg)
    Contract                   Close           Open           High       Low         PCP                  % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012                 410.80          411.15         413.30        409.30         411.45        -0.16                  140,599
    August, 2012               415.85          416.15         418.30        414.30         416.35        -0.12                    8,614

                                          Copper futures fell more than 0.10 per cent in the domestic market and closed lower in the overseas market on
                                          Tuesday amid worries that the deepening debt turmoil in Europe may curb the demand for the base metal over
                                          the coming months. Optimism over Spain’s 100 billion euro banking bailout soon faded as investors doubted that
                                          the rescue aid for Spanish banks may not fix Europe’s debt crises. Sentiment weakened further after Fitch ratings
                                          downgraded 18 Spanish banks, while Spain’s ten-year bond yields surged to a euro era record high of 6.83 per cent
     Copper futures ended lower in
                                          on Tuesday as Fitch warned that the debt saddled economy may miss its budget deficit targets for 2012 and 2013,
     the domestic market on
                                          raising concerns that Europe’s debt woes were deepening, and dimming the demand outlook for the base metal.
     Tuesday as the lingering debt
                                          The Euro area is the second largest global copper consumer.
     crises in Europe dimmed the
     demand outlook for the base
                                          However, the losses in the base metal were curbed by speculation that the Federal Reserve will undertake more
     metal
                                          policy easing measures to spur economic growth in the world’s largest economy, bolstering the demand outlook
                                          for the base metal. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said that he backed measures
                                          necessary to stimulate faster job growth in the US. A pickup in economic activity in the US may spur demand for
                                          the base metal. On the MCX, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 0.52 per cent at `409.30
                                          per Kg and settled at `410.80 per Kg, down by 0.16 per cent.

                                          Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3340 per pound,
                                          down by 0.33 per cent at 10:37 AM IST.


                                                          Today’s Economic Calendar
    Date            Time (IST)                     Economic Data              Country                        Forecast                     Prior
     13-06-2012      11:00 AM                    German Final CPI m/m                     EUR                                             -0.2%
                     06:00 PM                          PPI m/m                            USD                                             -0.6%
                     06:00 PM                      Retail Sales m/m                       USD                                             -0.1%


                                                 LME statistics as on June 12, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
    Commodity                           Lead       Aluminum            Copper            Nickel                      Tin                   Zinc
    Cash Buyer                        1893               1925.50           7383.50              17080               19600                 1877.50
    Cash Seller & Settlement         1893.50              1926              7384                17085               19650                  1878

                                                 LME Index Value as on June 12, 2012 - 3,209.8*
        *Last available public data on LME website

                                                   Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
    Commodity                  Expiry            PCP         R2           R1           Pivot                       S1             S2          Trend
    Gold                       Aug,12           29968              30256         30112           29890            29750         29536              Up
    Silver                      July,12         55076              55670         55377           54938            54673         54195              Up
    Crude Oil                  June,12           4638               4714          4676            4623             4585          4532              Up
    Copper                     June,12          410.8              415.1         412.9           411.1            408.9         407.1              Up
    Natural Gas                June,12          126.1              129.9           128           124.9             123          119.9             Down
    Nickel                     June,12          949.8              975.2         962.5           954.1            941.4         933.1              Up
    Lead                       June,12          105.6              107.1         106.3           105.8            105.1         104.5              Up
    Zinc                       June,12          104.65             105.8         105.2           104.8            104.2         103.7              Up
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

  Abbreviations:
  MCX      :        Multi Commodity Exchange
  NCDEX :           National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
  PCP      :        Previous Closing Price
  NYMEX :           New York Mercantile Exchange
  COMEX :           Commodity Exchange
  LME      :        London Metal Exchange
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
  EIA      :        Energy Information Administration
  ECB      :        European Central Bank
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries




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