Get documents about "Foreseeing the Vehicle of the Future
Shared by: S00VbdR
-
Stats
- views:
- 1
- posted:
- 6/12/2012
- language:
- pages:
- 35
Document Sample
Strategic Management of
Innovation: the Case of Clean
Automobile
Professor J.J. CHANARON
17 September 2009
ASSESSING THE VARIOUS
TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIONS
2/35
Conditions for Innovation
• Innovations are successful when they are
simultaneously:
1. Scientifically and technically possible, i.e. when
they have the technical performances expected
by customers and users
2. Commercially vendible, i.e. when their price
meets the demand as well as the after sale and
maintenance costs
3. Industrially feasible, i.e. when their
manufacturing costs and quality are satisfactory
to all stakeholders
4. Politically, socially and culturally acceptable, i.e.
when they get political support and full
customer acceptance
3/35
Required Success Factors
SALES
IDEOLOGIES
CUSTOMS Economically
PRICE
Vendable
Socially and Culturally
Acceptable SERVICES
Business
SOCIAL
PRACTICES Model
INNOVATION
MARKETING
Scientifically ENGINEERING METHODS
& Technically
Industrially Feasible
Possible
MANUFACTURING
COSTS
RESEARCH & DESIGN
DEVELOPMENT
4/35
Available Options
ICEV Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Vehicle powered by a gasoline or diesel
engine
AICEV Advanced Internal Combustion Vehicle powered by ICE using bio-fuels,
Engine Vehicle natural gas or hydrogen
HEV Hybrid Electric Vehicle Vehicle powered by both ICE and electric
power trains
PHEV “Plug-in” Hybrid Electric Vehicle HEV with “plug-in” rechargeable
batteries
ERHEV Extended-Range Hybrid Electric Vehicle powered by electric power train
Vehicle and batteries recharged by a small ICE
FPBEV Full Performance Battery Electric Full electric vehicle powered solely by
Vehicle batteries
FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Full electric vehicle powered solely by
fuel cell
5/35
NGV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Political, social CO² Very good Excellent Excellent
and cultural performances
acceptability
Fossil fuel Total Total Reserve for 100
dependence years but
geographically
distributed
Infrastructure Excellent Different Relatively easy
according to and cheap to
countries develop
Technological Overall Total Total Excellent
Possibility
Safety Good
6/35
NGV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Commercial Customer Relatively Still some Resistance will
vendibility acceptance good resistance over disappear
safety
Pricing Correlated to Subsidized by
oil pricing governments
trend
Industrial Cost Good Small premium Will vanish with
feasibility economies of
scale
Engineering Good Good Will improve
Component CNG kit Fully available
supply available
7/35
Bio-fuel Vehicle
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Political, social CO² Very good Excellent Excellent
and cultural performances
acceptability
Fossil fuel None None
dependence
Competition Bad Bad Progress in
food/transportat output/ha and
ion efficiency
Infrastructure Good Good Relatively easy
and cheap to
develop
Ecology Require Poor
genetically
modified
seeds
8/35
Bio-fuel Vehicle
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term
achievement Perspective
Technological Overall Total Total Excellent
Possibility
Safety Not an issue
Raw materials Limitations Limitations Opening to new
sources: straw, exotic
plants, garbage
Commercial Customer Relatively good Good
vendibility acceptance
Pricing Good Subsidized by Will improve with
governments economies of scale
Industrial Cost Relatively cheap Will decrease with
feasibility economies of scale
Manufacturing New Under construction Will expand rapidly in
infrastructure to in Brazil, USA and some countries
be built up Europe
9/35
HEV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Political, social Environmental Slightly Might be
and cultural friendship better improved with
acceptability new generations
downsized
gasoline engine &
better batteries
Fossil fuel High Reserve for 40-50
dependence years but could be
extended with
downsizing
Infrastructure Excellent Total Not an issue
availability
10/35
HEV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Technological Overall Good Similar to Should not
possibility performances current ICE change
substantially
Range/autonom Limited <20km on Lithium-Ion
y electric drive battery will
improve
CO² Limited ≤10-15%
Performances improvement
Fuel Limited 5-10% in Should improve
consumption Europe slowly
performance 15-30% in the
US
11/35
HEV
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term
achievement Perspective
Commercial Customer Relatively Customer Might benefit from
vendibility acceptance weak preference for change in behavior
mono-energy
power train
Pricing Relatively Premium of Price will decrease
weak US$2,500 with volumes
Industrial Cost Higher >10-15% Will decrease with
feasibility economies of scale
and scope
Engineering More complex Under control of Will improve
very few OEMs rapidly
Manufacturing Easy Electronic module
is the key
component
Quality Equivalent Equivalent
12/35
FPBEV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achieveme Status Perspective
nt
Political, social Environment Excellent Excellent
and cultural al friendship
acceptability
Fossil fuel None Excellent
dependence
Infrastructure Weak Weak Recharging stations,
national grids to be
adapted
13/35
FPBEV
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term Perspective
achievement
Technological possibility Overall performances Very poor, far from Limited mileage Must improve substantially
expected levels autonomy
Range/autonomy Limited <100-150km Lithium-Ion battery will probably
improve but alternatives should be
investigated
Durability/Number of Relatively good Still in question for Must improved
recharging cycles real use conditions
Recharging time Long Too long : Must improve radically
Consumers want the
ability to be able to do
a quick recharge
Recharging Not available To be extended Must be improved and expanded
infrastructure Grid to be up-graded
CO² Performances Limited when Poor in North
electricity is America and Japan,
produced from Better in nuclear
fossil fuels (oil and energy oriented
coal) countries
Energy consumption Good Good Should improve slowly
performance
Technological options Prototypes Very few Basic research and applied
development are required
14/35
FPBEV
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term Perspective
achievement
Commercial Customer Relatively Customer Might benefit from change
vendibility acceptance weak preference for in behavior thanks to
petrol hybrid technology
Pricing Relatively Very high Price will decrease with
weak premium volumes
Maintenance/Rep Good Costly if change Should be improved
air of battery stack
required
Industrial feasibility Cost Much higher No reliable data Will indeed decrease with
so far economies of scale and
7,000€ for 120 scope
km range
Engineering Simpler than Under control of Will improve rapidly
ICE some OEMs and
battery
manufacturers
Manufacturing Relatively easy Still limited for Battery manufacturing is
high volume and the key element
high performance
batteries
Quality Equivalent Equivalent
15/35
Issues
• Impact on recharging grid is significant:
most countries will not be able to cope
with the production and distribution of
electricity
• Theoretical performances of lithium-based
batteries probably not sufficient
16/35
FCEV
Factor Degree of Current Long Term
achievement Status Perspective
Political, Environmental Excellent Excellent Very likely after
social friendship 2020
and cultural
acceptability
Fossil fuel None Excellent Perfect
dependence
Safety Weak Weak due to To be improved
H2 leaks and
refueling risk
Infrastructure Weak Weak Huge need with
high cost of
producing and
distributing H2
17/35
FCEV
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term Perspective
achievement
Technological Overall performances Still weak, far from Limited mileage, high Must improve substantially
possibility expected levels temperature, problem
in cold weather, life
cycle unknown
Range/autonomy Acceptable <500-600km for the Range will probably
latest generation increase
Durability/Number of Relatively good Still in question for Must improved
refueling cycles real use conditions
Anode and membranes Poor Platinum anodes are Basic research and applied
very expensive development are required
Current membrane are
not resistant enough to
high temperature
CO² Performances Perfect if H2 is not Good
produced by
electrolyze from
fossil fuel power
generators
Energy consumption Good 30 to 50% electrical Should improve slightly
performance efficiency
Technological options On-board H2 refining, Basic research
Liquid H2
18/35
FCEV
Factor Degree of Current Status Long Term Perspective
achievement
Commercial Customer acceptance Relatively weak Customer preference Might benefit from change
vendibility for petrol in behavior thanks to hybrid
technology and other
electric vehicles
Pricing Relatively weak Extremely high Price will decrease with
premium volumes
Maintenance/Repair Good Costly if change of cell Should be improved
and battery is required
Industrial Cost Much higher No reliable data Will indeed decrease with
feasibility available so far economies of scale and
Platinum on anode is scope
very expensive
Engineering Simpler than ICE Under control of some Will improve relatively
OEMs and fuel cell rapidly
manufacturers
Manufacturing Relatively easy Still limited for high Cells manufacturing is the
volume and high key element
performance cells
Quality Equivalent Equivalent
19/35
Comparing Energy Storage
Natural Liquified Compressed
Unit Gasoline Diesel Electricity gas gas H2 Liquid H2
State Liquid Liquid Chemical Gas Liquid Gas Liquid
Temperature Centigrade Actual Actual Actual-300° Actual Actual Actual -253°
Pressure Bars 1 1 1 >200 5-25 350-700 5
Energy Wh/kg 11900 11800 30-200 2200 7080 1200 500-1000
Energy Wh/l 8900 9900 70-300 2500 4300 450 1800
Refueling time Minutes 5 5 30-360 5 5 5 5
Battery Exchange Time Minutes 5
Tank-to-Wheel efficiency % 30-35 40-42 80-85 20-38 30-35 ~50 ~30-35
Weight for 60 litres Kg 45 50 90-150 70 36 90-100 100-200
Range Km ~900 ~1000 30-120 160 430 200-300 ~180
Sources: Syrota, 2008 and press cuttings.
20/35
BUILDING UP A TENTATIVE
VIABLE & ACCEPTABLE
SCENARIO
21/35
A Scenario of Consensus
Improved Displace
Vehicle Petroleum Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Fuel Economy Battery Electric
and
Emissions
Battery Electric Electric
Vehicles Drive
Propulsion
System
Hybrid and
Plug-inHybrid Electric Mechanical
Vehicles Drive
IC Engine and
Transmission
Improvements
t
2010 2020 203022/35
Characteristics for Scenario
1. Clean and efficient ICE will be substituted to
conventional ICE during the next ten years culminating
with a 75% market penetration in 2020 followed by a
slow decline up to 2050
2. Hybrid solutions (conventional, plug-in or extended
range electric vehicle) will progressively see their
market penetration growing up to 25% around 2025
3. Full performance battery electric vehicles will start
being commercialized in 2010 and see a growing but
limited market penetration to 20% by 2030 and 30% in
2050
4. Fuel cell electric vehicles will not be seriously
introduced before 2025 and then see their market
penetration growing at a relatively high rate to reach
more than 50% in 2050
23/35
A Tentative Scenario
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046
ICE Clean ICE HEV FPBEV FCEV
24/35
Impact of the Current Crisis
1. There is no obvious evidence that the
current crisis of the automotive industry
would delay or accelerate technical
change and innovation in powertrains
2. The Obama administration is associating
financial support to a radical change of
the « Big Three » model strategy towards
downsizing and innovative powertrains
25/35
Impact of the Current Crisis
3. Financial resources of OEMs will limit
their R&D and innovation capabilities for
years while priority is on market recovery
and profit-loss optimization
4. Radical innovation on vehicle will need
five years for market introduction and ten
years minimum before being “visible” and
even much more time before a real
impact will be significant
26/35
Impact of the Current Crisis
5. European OEMs still do not invest so
much on hybrids and plug-in hybrids
6. Transfer of R&D and innovation
expenditures and responsibilities for
components on key suppliers will intensify
7. Downsizing and further move towards low
cost and ultra-low cost models is an
obstacle to radical change and innovation
27/35
Tata Nano
Quasi-Standards
1. Lithium-ion for FPBEV and compressed
hydrogen for FCEV are the worldwide
quasi-standards
2. But basic R&D is still deeply needed on
these two technologies
3. Basic R&D is still conducted by public
laboratories and private corporations on
alternatives to these quasi-standards
28/35
Conclusions
1. No potentially dominant design such was
and is probably still ICE
2. Diffusion curve of radical technologies
will be slow
3. Real impact on pollution and energy will
take years since 1 billion vehicles in use
in 2010 with ICE
4. Still unclear industrial organization
29/35
Pending Questions
1. Universal or local options?
2. Unique solution or concomitant
trajectories?
3. Traditional automotive system or new
industry?
4. Innovative leadership to developed or
emerging countries?
5. Which role for Chinese OEMs or Chinese
new entrants?
30/35
Pending Questions
6. Which pricing level and tax incentive?
7. Recharging of replacing batteries for FPBEV?
8. Which supply system of energy or “fuel”
hydrogen, electricity?
9. Total well-to-wheel figures to be calculated,
up-dated and assessed: electricity generation
sources such as coal might be worse than oil
for global warming! Nuclear energy has strong
opponents!
31/35
Pending Questions
10. Which change(s) in customer behavior?
11. Which change(s) in customer
preferences?
And probably the most important question:
12. Should the entire business model be
changed? Vehicle sold with rented
batteries, for instance? Rented vehicles?
32/35
And what if China?
• In China, a national research plan is involving all
the best public laboratories - Tongji, Tsinghua,
Jiao Tong, Dalian, CAS, etc.) on batteries and
fuel cells
• Domestic OEMs leading the move forward: is it
marketing bluff or real threat?
• Weaknesses in designing powertrains and in
vehicle integration
• Bottlenecks to be resolved: costs, reliability,
safety, and distribution infrastructure
33/35
And what if China?
• As at the end of August 2009, 91 models by 34
corporations with more than 15 millions of
kilometers achieved so far
• A tough competition amongst Chinese
stakeholders
• But a national consensus about the opportunity to
leap-frog with Japanese and Western competitors
• A small level of motorization and a limited number
of vehicles in use
• A strong political bargaining power capable to
impose a solution and an acceleration
• High levels of urban traffic congestion and pollution
34/35
Thanks for your attention
