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Leadership, communication and Decision is a must have course for every one. For a good Leadership you should have good communication skills and Decision making skills. These documents will teach you all that for free.
DECISION MAKING INTUITIVE STRATEGIES Snehlata Jaswal HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations APPROACHES TO DECISION MAKING There are two broad approaches to a decision making model Intuitive Decision Making Rational Decision Making Rational decision making can be quite time consuming and often requires a lot of preparation in terms of information gathering. Rational models are designed to firstly identify the frame of the decision. Based on the information available, alternatives are generated. Further information is then gathered about these alternatives in order to choose the best one. But what happens when there's too much information? How do you separate the useful from the worthless? The world is changing so rapidly that waiting for things to stabilize may cause a delay in decision making and lead to missed opportunities. Many think the way forward involves re-harnessing the power of our intuition. INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING IN OUR LIVES The idea that executives should make decisions according to what their intuition or “gut” tells them is generally out of favor. In a scientific age, one‟s feelings are supposed to be mastered, while painstakingly collected megabytes of data reveal the correct path. And yet people continue to feel that this is an oversimplification. For many complex decisions, all the data in the world can‟t trump a lifetime‟s worth of experience that informs one‟s gut feeling or intuition. Consider the game of chess, it appears that grandmasters are carefully thinking through every possible move and countermove. But, as former World Chess Champion Garry Kasparov explained in an interview, “The total number of possible different moves in a single game of chess is more than the number of seconds that have elapsed since the big bang created the universe.” For Kasparov, who claims to be able to think up to 15 moves in advance, “intuition is the defining quality of a great chess player.” HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING IN THE ARMY In military schools historically, the rational, analytical models have been utilized. It is also long been recognized, however, that once the enemy is engaged, i.e., you are at war, the analytical model may do more harm than good. History is full of examples where battles have more often been lost by a leader‟s failure to make a decision than by his making a poor one. "A good plan, executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week.“ - General George S. Patton, Jr. So, the military often educate soldiers of every rank to make intuitive decisions. Information overload, lack of time, and chaotic conditions are poor conditions for rational models. Instead of improving their rational decision making, such conditions require intuitive decision models. Why? Because they work! DISADVANTAGES: INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING To make a decision intuitively the person or group just has to go with the option that satisfies their emotional reactions to the alternatives. The advantages of this type of model is that it is quick and it helps ensure that it takes into account what you really care about. Because you have positive feelings about the decision you will be well motivated to carry it out. But intuitive decisions can have some serious drawbacks: • You might not have fully considered all the alternatives and therefore have missed an even better solution. • You might also have based the decision on inaccurate or incomplete information. • Your prejudices might make you overrule the facts. • You might not hire the best qualified person because of say prejudice in terms of age, sex, or race. • Intuitive decisions might be very difficult in a team decision situation because people have different intuitive perspectives. INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Some people believe intuitive decision making to be based on unlikely coincidences, lucky guesses, or some kind of new-age hocus-pocus. Many universities are still only teaching rational decision making models and suggest that if these are not used, failure results. However, some researchers are studying intuitive decision making models. These groups are realizing that intuitive decision making is not simply the opposite of rational decision making, and intuition can positively contribute to success at individual or organizational levels. INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING IN ORGANIZATIONS Burke and Miller (1999) interviewed 60 experienced professionals holding significant positions in major organizations across various industries in the U.S. The executives provided rich descriptive insights about intuitive decision making. They discussed the nature of intuition and how it is developed, how often they use intuition and how they are prompted to do so, and the types of workplace situations in which intuition is used. The interviews were used to develop a descriptive profile of those using intuition in the workplace and to document the perceived quality and benefits of intuitive decisions. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations BURKE AND MILLER (1999) What is intuition? What are intuitive decisions based on? • Experienced-based decisions. Fifty-six percent of the interviewees said intuitive decisions were based on experience. Accumulated successes and failures, in work and in personal life, formed a set of experiences on which they drew in particular situations. This concept of intuition suggests that intuition resembles a mental map or schema generated from years of practice. • Affect-initiated decisions. Forty percent of the subjects said intuition is based on a person's feelings or emotions when presented with information in a decision-making scenario. This characterization is consistent with the lay interpretation of intuition as a gut feeling, and has been supported by research that suggests emotion is a central element in decision making. • Cognitive-based decisions. Some participants also characterized intuition as based on knowledge and skills learned through training seminars and textbooks. The methods for strengthening intuitive skills were workshops, courses, and books. • Subconscious mental processing. Some described intuitive decisions as a subconscious mental processing that automatically happens in the background. • Value-based decisions. A few respondents referred to their intuitive decision making as attempts to make a correct, acceptable, or ethical decision. They suggested that intuition involves some element of personal introspection by decision makers to generate a decision that is compatible either with their own moral codes or with their companies' cultures. BURKE AND MILLER (1999) No one in the group of professionals viewed intuition as a paranormal power or a personality trait, which helps us to understand at least what intuition is not. Nevertheless, more than half represented intuition as distilled experience and an affective response. Thus, intuition may be thought of as a cognitive conclusion based on a decision maker's previous experiences and emotional inputs. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations WHO USES INTUITION? Employees who have more experience, who are older, or who hold managerial positions tend to use their intuition more. Managers who effectively employ intuition in the workplace are confident and comfortable, open-minded and flexible, experienced, willing to take risks, fair and unbiased, reflective and insightful, knowledgeable, and creative. Upper-level executives need to apply intuition more than others because of their need to see the bigger picture, to address conceptual rather than technical matters, and to deal with long- term rather than short-term time horizons. Nearly 80% of the interviewees did not cite gender as an important factor in intuition. This maybe because women in male- dominated workplaces may wish to appear analytical rather than emotional in their decision making, or they may tend to employ HUL at work than in and Communication in Organizations their intuition less 204 Leadership, Decision making,non-professional situations. FREQUENCY OF USE Asked whether they always, often, sometimes, seldom, or rarely, used intuition in the workplace, 47 percent of the sample answered often, 30 percent sometimes, 12 percent always, seven percent seldom, and three percent rarely. Almost all respondents (91.5 percent) said that they had combined intuition with data analysis in their history of workplace decision making, employing intuition in concert with deductive processes. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations ADVANTAGES: INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Expedites decisions. Many participants felt that by reducing the amount of data required, they experienced a faster decision process, as measured by time. Improves ultimate decision. Some participants reported benefits associated with intuition as a result of improved decision- making outcomes. Examples included a fairer outcome, a higher quality product, and enhanced customer satisfaction. Facilitates personal development. A few respondents saw intuition as having certain personal benefits - a skill which helped them develop a full set of professional skills or provided them with a certain element of power. Promotes decisions compatible with company culture. Other study participants claimed intuition helped them make decisions that were consistent with their company's culture and values. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations HOW TO IMPROVE INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Executives should: • be more attentive to the overall decision pro-cess; • challenge decisions when they feel or sense the need to do so; • reflect on past decisions and the role that intuition played and attempt to learn from any mistakes; • practice applying intuition in work situations or with hypothetical scenarios, cases, or exercises; • watch and observe when and how others employ their intuition; • become educated about intuitive decision making by reading books and articles, and attending conferences; • learn to take risks when making decisions with-out being afraid of the consequences; • practice making decisions without all the data necessary. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations WHEN TO USE INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING • when decisions need to be consistent with the organization's culture and values; • when time is of the essence; • when explicit cues are lacking because policies, rules, guidelines, or expert guidance are absent; • when uncertainty prevails because of new product planning or strategy formulation; • when quantitative analyses require a check and balance. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Klein (1999) suggests that people actually use an intuitive approach 90% of the time. His recognition primed decision making model describes that in any situation there are cues or hints that allow people to recognize patterns. Your mind does not compute, it senses patterns. Obviously, the more experience somebody has, the more patterns they will be able to recognize. Based on the pattern, the person chooses a particular course of action. They mentally rehearse it and if they think it will work, they do it. If they don't think it will work, they choose another, and mentally rehearse that. As soon as they find one that they think will work, they do it. Again past experience and learning plays a big part here. There is no actual comparison of choices, but rather a cycling through choices until an appropriate one is found. Obviously people become better with this over time as they have more experiences and learn more patterns. Big question: Can this also be taught? COMBINING INTUITION AND RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Can we combine rational and intuitive decision making to form the best approach that can handle important decisions? People tend to leap to an immediate intuitive choice, but according to Thagard (1999) people should follow a procedure which he calls an Informed Intuition model: It combines the strengths and avoids the weaknesses of the intuition and the rational or calculation models of decision making. • Like the intuition decision making model, it recognizes that decision making is an unconscious process that involves emotions. • Like the calculation or rational decision making model, it aims to avoid decision errors caused by unsystematic and unexamined intuitions. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations INFORMED INTUITION PROCEDURE Informed Intuition is a much more complicated process of decision making, but here are the steps: • Set up the decision problem carefully. This requires identifying the goals to be accomplished by your decision and specifying the broad range of possible actions that might accomplish those • Reflect on the importance of the different goals. Such reflection will be more emotional and intuitive than just putting a numerical weight on them, but should help you to be more aware of what you care about in the current decision situation. Identify goals whose importance may be exaggerated because of emotional distortions • Examine beliefs and assumptions about the extent to which various actions would facilitate the different goals. Are these beliefs based on good evidence? If not, revise them. • Make your intuitive judgment about the best action to perform, monitoring your emotional reaction to different options. Run your decision past other people to see if it seems reasonable to them. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations IMPORTANCE OF COMMUNICATION IN INFORMED INTUITION PROCEDURE INFORMED INTUITION is not so objective as the calculation model, in which the numerical weights and calculations can be laid out on the table for all to see the decisions. Consequently communication about the relevant goals and actions is more difficult. Ultimately, the individual decision makers will have to make decisions based on their own intuitive judgments about what is the right thing to do. The members of the group may be poor at specifying the emotional weights they put on different goals, and they may be unaware of their assumptions about the extent to which different actions facilitate different goals. Achieving consensus among a group of decision makers may require extensive discussion that reveals the goals and beliefs of decision makers to themselves as well as to others. It is much easier to identify emotional distortions in others than in yourself. The discussion, including the exercise of working through a calculation together, may help the members of the group converge on evaluations of goal importance and belief plausibility and eventually produce a shared reaction of emotional coherence. HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations INTEGRATED DECISION MAKING Sauter (1999): Managers have four decision making styles: • Left brain style • Right brain style • Accommodating style • Integrating style Intuition itself has six forms: • Illumination • Detection • Evaluation • Prediction • Operative intuition • Creative intuition HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR INTEGRATED DECISIONS • Provide actual and/ or virtual experience • Track experiences • Use data mining tools to filter and reduce data • Use data analyses tools • Present data so that intuition is facilitated • Stimulating and testing intuition: - Decision makers must „Understand what they know‟ - Decision makers must „Understand underlying assumptions‟ - Decision makers must be able to test assumptions • Use electronic support for memory, providing access at all times HEURISTICS FOR INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Heuristics are rules of thumb used for quick, intuitive decision making. They, however, do not guarantee a solution. Conditional reasoning: If...then... choices are tricky, but reduce alternatives. Emotions in decision making: Use the emotionally appealing alternative. Formulating intent: Go according to your goals / intentions. Perceived ownership effect: If I can put my hands on it, then I believe I own it. Short cut decisions: We take short-cuts to save time. Size heuristic: „Big‟ is „beautiful‟. The price quality heuristic: Expensive seems better. Two stage decisions: Decisions are often done in two stages, filtering out the many before focusing on the few. CONCLUSION: INTUITIVE DECISION MAKING Matzler, Bailom, and Mooradian (2007): Intuition “is not a magical sixth sense or a paranormal process; nor does it signify either random and whimsical decision making or the opposite of reason. Rather intuition is a highly complex and highly developed form of reasoning that is based on years of experience and learning, and on facts, patterns, concepts, procedures and abstractions stored in one‟s head”. Cultivation of intuition requires: • Experience • Networks • Emotional Intelligence • Tolerance • Curiosity • Understanding limits HUL 204 Leadership, Decision making, and Communication in Organizations Thank you
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