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North Carolina Senate Poll Briefing

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North Carolina Senate Poll Briefing Powered By Docstoc
					Communications Workers of America
Ten State Poll on Paying for Healthcare Reform

  November 30 – December 3, 2009 N=2,200 2010 Likely Voters
 Across Ten States (AR, CO, CT, DE, IN, LA, ND, NM, NV, and VA)
           Regions and States Surveyed
    REGION         STATES        SAMPLE SIZE   MARGIN
                                               OF ERROR
   East           Connecticut   400           +/- 4.9%
                   Delaware

   South          Arkansas      600           +/- 4.0%
                   Louisiana
                   Virginia

   Southwest      Colorado      600           +/- 4.0%
                   Nevada
                   New Mexico

   Indiana        --            300           +/- 5.66%


   North Dakota   --            300           +/- 5.66%
                                                           2
         Summary
   Voters across all five regions and 2010 frontline Senate states are strongly
    opposed to taxing high-cost health insurance plans as a way to help fund
    health insurance reform. Overall, 70% of voters oppose it, while at least
    60% of voters in each region are opposed.
   Voters are less likely to re-elect their member of Congress by a 41-point
    margin (63% less likely to 22% more likely) if they support an excise tax.
   Across each region, opposition to taxing high-cost insurance plans is even
    higher among Independents, with 74% of these voters opposed to such a
    tax.
   Voters clearly prefer to fund health insurance reform by raising taxes on
    the wealthy than by taxing high-cost plans, as they support taxing
    households making over a million a year (and individuals making over half
    a million a year), by a 12-point margin (54% to 42%). This was supported
    by a majority of voters in seven of the ten states surveyed, and by 49% in
    the remaining three.
   A plurality of voters (49%) would be more likely to re-elect a member of
    Congress who supports raising taxes on the wealthy to help fund health
    insurance reform.
                                                                               3
              Overall, 70% of voters oppose taxing high-cost health insurance
              plans as a way to help pay for health insurance reform, with over
              60% opposing such a tax in each of the regions we surveyed.
              Opposition to the tax also exceeded 60% in each of the seven
              states that have 2010 frontline Senate races.

Opposition to Taxing High-Cost Health Insurance Plans to Pay for Reform
                                                                                 Favor
  100                                                                            Oppose

   80                                       74                         72            74
                   70
                               63                         66
   60


   40
                        23                         21
            19                      18                         17           13
   20


       0
           All Ten      East        South        Southwest     Indiana      North
           States                                                           Dakota

 Net         -51        -40          -56            -45          -55         -61
                                                                                          4
             Support for taxing high-cost health insurance plans would also have
             electoral implications for members of Congress, as 60% or more of
             voters across each region are less likely to re-elect their member of
             Congress if they support the tax. Among voters across all ten states,
             nearly half (48%) say they are much less likely to re-elect their
             representative if they back it.

      Impact on Support for Member of Congress who Backs Excise Tax
                                                                          More likely
100                                                                       Less likely

80
              63             63           66                       64            65
                                                       60
60


40
        22           23           22            23          21          17
20


 0
       All Ten        East        South        Southwest    Indiana     North
       States                                                           Dakota

Net     -41          -40          -44            -37         -43        -48
                                                                                        5
       Opposition to an excise tax is even higher among Independents,
       with over two thirds of Independents (68%) indicating that they are
       less likely to re-elect their member of Congress if they support
       taxing high-cost health insurance plans.

      Impact on Support for Member of Congress: Independents

100


80                            66      70                         70        68
      63   68           64                         65      65         64
                61                          60
60


40


20


 0
      All Ten    East         South        Southwest      Indiana     North
      States                                                          Dakota
                        Less likely to re-elect - All voters
                        Less likely to re-elect - Independents
                                                                                6
        While voters are strongly opposed to taxing high-cost health insurance plans,
        they solidly support taxing households making over one million a year (or
        individuals making over a half a million), in order to help pay for health
        insurance reform, with 54% favoring it across all ten states. A solid majority
        supports such a tax in seven of the ten states surveyed, with 49% supporting
        it in the remaining three (Colorado, Louisiana, and North Dakota).

                Support for Taxing Wealthy to Help Fund Reform
                                                                           Favor
100                                                                        Oppose

80
                     60                                     59
        54                       53             54
60                                                                     49
             42                         44           43                        44
                           36                                    36
40


20


 0
      All Ten       East        South        Southwest    Indiana     North
      States                                                          Dakota

Net    +12          +24         +9             +11         +23        +5
                                                                                    7
              Supporting a tax on the wealthy to help fund health insurance reform does
              not carry the risks for members of Congress that supporting an excise tax
              on health plans does. While voters indicate that they are less likely to re-
              elect a member of Congress who supports an excise tax, a majority or
              plurality say they are more likely to re-elect a candidate who backs taxing
              the wealthy in four out of the five regions surveyed.

      Impact on Support for Member of Congress who Backs Tax on Wealthy
                                                                            More likely
100                                                                         Less likely

80

                       54                                     54
60       49                        48            49
                                           45                             44      46
               43                                      43
                              36                                    37
40


20


 0
        All Ten        East        South        Southwest   Indiana      North
        States                                                           Dakota

Net      +6            +18          +3            +6          +17          -2
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