Commodity Daily Report-June 12, 2012 - Alankit Assignments by AlankitAssignments

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									             Daily Commodity Watch


                                             June 12, 2012                                               www.alankit.com
                                                                              Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:

 Crude Oil futures fell in the domestic and overseas market on
  Monday amid concerns that the bailout package for Spain may fail to
  stem Europe’s lingering debt contagion, dimming the demand
  outlook for the fuel. The Eurozone officials on Saturday agreed to
  lend as much as 100 billion euro to Spain to help recapitalize its
  lenders and shore up confidence in the nation’s economy.

 Crude Oil futures also fell after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali-al-Naimi
  said that the OPEC nations may need to raise their output ceiling
  above 30 million barrels per day, a sign that global crude oil market
  remains adequately supplied despite the looming threat of Iran
  disrupting crude oil supplies amid escalating tensions with the West
  over its controversial nuclear program.                                     Crude oil intraday chart


 Crude futures continued their losing streak in the overseas market on
  Tuesday and fell after the US exempted seven nations from US
  economic sanctions against buying Iranian crude oil, reducing the risk
  of supply disruptions, and putting downward pressure on fuel prices.

 Gold futures closed higher in the domestic market on Monday as
  stockists and investors created fresh positions in the precious metal
  amid firm global cues. Gold futures rose in the overseas marker on
  Monday after Eurozone officials agreed to grant Spain 100 billion
  euro aid for its banks as investors bet that easy-money policies may
  spur the demand for the yellow metal.

 China’s copper imports rose 12 per cent in May 2012 from the
                                                                              Copper intraday chart
  previous month, government data showed on Monday. Copper
  futures ended higher in the domestic market on Monday as robust
  Chinese copper imports data signaled a pickup in demand for the
  base metal in the world’s largest copper consuming nation.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

 Market Overview                                                                                       Commodity Indices at MCX
                                                                                          Indices          Close                PCP           %Chg
 On June 11, 2012 (Monday), the domestic commodity markets sentiment was lifted
                                                                                       MCXCOMDEX          3638.50              3624.92         0.37
 after Europe agreed on a US$125 billion bailout package for Spain’s distressed
 banks, raising hopes that rescue fund would help contain Europe’s major debt          MCXMETAL           4960.26              4909.47         1.03
 crisis. The will have a positive impact on the market in the near term as it has      MCXENERGY          3118.71              3138.88        (0.64)
 greatly reduced the need for the Spanish government to seek funding from the          MCXAGRI            2762.25              2752.85         0.34
 market for some time. Most of the major indices, at the Multi Commodity Exchange
 (MCX), settled in the positive terrain except MCXENERGY. MCXCOMDEX closed at                                   Index at NCDEX
 3,638.50 (up by 0.37 per cent), MCXMETAL closed at 4,960.26 (up by 1.03 per cent),        Index           Close                PCP           %Chg
 MCXAGRI closed at 2,762.25 (up by 0.34 per cent), while MCXENERGY closed at             Dhaanya          2370.49              2349.96         0.87
 3,118.71 (down by 0.64 per cent).

                                                                                                           Top Gainers at MCX
 MCXMETAL stood as the top gainers among all the indices due to significant gain in
 the precious and base metals on the back of positive developments in the Spain.       Commodity       Expiry       Close (`)      PCP (`)   % Chg
 Copper futures ended more than 1 per cent higher in the domestic market after         Cardamom        Aug          1239           1191.30   4
 Europe agreed on a US$125 billion bailout package for Spain’s distressed banks,       Cardamom        Sep          1231.30        1183.90   4
 raising hopes that rescue fund would help contain Europe’s major debt crisis.         Cardamom        July         1250.30        1202.20   4
 Copper prices were also supported by the surprisingly strong import data from         Cardamom        June         1234.90        1187.40   4
 China, which boosted the demand prospects for industrial metals in the world’s        Potato          July         1142.20        1108.90   3
 biggest consumer of base metals. China’s copper imports beat the market
 expectation and climbed nearly 12 per cent in May from April 2012, raising hopes                           Top Losers at MCX
 that demand from the world's top consumer could be even stronger in the near          Commodity       Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
 term following the recent slump in prices.                                            Mentha Oil      Aug         1360.10        1412.40    (3.70)
                                                                                       Natural Gas     June        123.60         128.30     (3.66)
 Moreover, Gold futures advanced on Monday in the domestic bullion market and          Menthe Oil      June        1331.10        1380.10    (3.55)
 ended 0.46 per cent higher at `29,765 per 10 grams on MCX. Gold firmed in the         Mentha Oil      July        1349.40        1397.10    (3.41)
 overseas market on the euro zone’s decision to help Spain’s distressed banks, which   Natural Gas     July        127.40         131.80     (3.34)
 boosted demand for riskier assets. Apart from this, a sharp depreciation in the
 Indian currency against the U.S. dollar also sent the precious metals higher in the                     Top Gainers at NCDEX
 domestic market. In futures trading, USDINR for June 2012 contract depreciated as
                                                                                       Commodity       Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
 much as 22 paise to `55.94 per dollar, and settled at `55.8825, down by 0.29 per
                                                                                       Chilli          July        5104           4906       4.04
 cent, on MCX-SX.
                                                                                       Chilli          Aug         5272           5068       4.03
                                                                                       Potato          Aug         1143.70        1099.70    4
 Cardamom futures were the top gainers on MCX as prices hit the upper circuit, up
                                                                                       Potato          Sep         1214.10        1167.40    4
 by 4 per cent, on the back of short covering at the lower prices levels. Last week
                                                                                       Chilii          June        4982           4794       3.92
 Cardamom posted the biggest weekly loses in 10-weeks due to fragile demand from
 the local buyers and expectation of higher supplies from the major producing
                                                                                                          Top Losers at NCDEX
 regions. The cardamom futures for June contract reached at `1,161 per kg, lowest
 level since April 27, 2012, on Saturday at MCX. Hence, lower price levels attracted   Commodity       Expiry      Close (`)      PCP (`)    % Chg
 the investors to make fresh long positions in hopes of further gains.                 Steel Long      June        32330          33140      (2.44)
                                                                                       Chana           Oct         4325           4399       (1.68)
 On Monday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were Crude           Steel Long      July        32690          33060      (1.12)
 Oil for June 2012 contract with 236929 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract      Cot. Oil Seed   June        1140           1149       (0.78)
 with 169069 lots, copper for June 2012 contract with 151912 lots, Silver M for June   Maize Feed      July        1142           1151       (0.78)
 2012 contract with 117585 lots and Copper for June 2012 contract with 89392 lots.

 At MCX, natural gas futures for June 2012 contract closed at `123.60 per million
 British thermal units (mmBtu), down by 3.66 per cent, after opening at `127.30
 against the previous closing of `128.30 per mmBtu.

 .
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                        Fundamental Market Overview
                                                                MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
    Contract                 Close           Open              High       Low          PCP                  % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012               4659             4678             4773           4650          4675            -0.34              236,929
    July, 2012               4700             4736             4812           4694          4715            -0.32               25,188

                                          Crude Oil futures fell more than 0.30 per cent in the domestic market on Monday amid concerns that the bailout
                                          package for Spain may fail to stem Europe’s lingering debt contagion, dimming the demand outlook for the fuel.
                                          The Eurozone officials on Saturday agreed to lend as much as 100 billion euro to Spain to help recapitalize its
                                          lenders and shore up confidence in the nation’s economy. Spain became the fourth Euro area economy to seek a
                                          bailout, following Greece, Portugal and Ireland. After the initial euphoria, investors became skeptical that a
     Crude oil futures ended lower        bailout of 100 billion euro will fix the debt crises in Europe, signaling a bearish outlook for fuel demand .Focus
     in the domestic market on            also returned to the gloomy conditions facing the other euro area nations with traders cautious ahead of the
     Monday amid concerns that
                                          Greek verdict on June 17, that will determine whether Greece remains a part of the single currency or not. The
     the lingering debt contagion in
     Europe may curb fuel demand          gloomy economic outlook facing the euro area dampened the prospects for fuel demand in the region.

                                          Crude Oil futures also fell after Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali-al-Naimi said that the OPEC nations may need to
                                          raise their output ceiling above 30 million barrels per day, a sign that global crude oil market remains adequately
                                          supplied despite the looming threat of Iran disrupting crude oil supplies amid escalating tensions with the West
                                          over its controversial nuclear program. At the MCX, crude oil futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as
                                          0.53 per cent at `4,650 per barrel and settled at `4,659 per barrel, down by 0.34 per cent.

       Currently, Crude futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $81.98 per barrel, down by 0.87 per cent at 11:24 AM IST after
       the US exempted seven nations from US economic sanctions against buying Iranian crude oil, reducing the risk of supply disruptions, and putting
       downward pressure on fuel prices.


                                                                MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
    Contract                 Close           Open             High        Low         PCP                    % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    August, 2012             29765           29549            29784           29527          29544           0.75                        37,048
    October,2012             30101           29900            30120           29881          29894           0.69                        1,026

                                             Gold futures rose more than 0.65 per cent in the domestic market on Monday as stockists and investors
                                             created fresh positions in the precious metal amid firm global cues. Gold futures rose in the overseas marker
                                             on Monday after Eurozone officials agreed to grant Spain 100 billion euro aid for its banks as investors bet that
                                             easy-money policies may spur the demand for the yellow metal, which is a hedge against the inflationary risk
                                             of monetary stimulus. Gold futures also rose after a report by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China said
                                             that Gold –investment demand in China may rise by more than 10 per cent this year as buyers seek safe haven
     Gold futures ended higher in the        from the debt turmoil in Europe. Moreover, a sharp depreciation of the rupee against the dollar also put
     domestic market on Monday as            upward pressure on domestic gold prices.
     investors and stockists created
     fresh positions in the precious         On the MCX, gold futures for the August 2012 contract rose as much as 0.81 per cent to touch a day’s high of
     metal amid firm global cues             `29,784 per 10 grams and settled at `29,765 per 10 grams, up by 0.75 per cent. Gold futures pared some gains
                                             in the overseas market on Monday as a stronger dollar curbed the demand for the precious metal as an
                                             alternative asset. The dollar regained strength against a basket of currencies amid concerns that Spain’s bailout
                                             plan may not fix the debt crises in Europe. A stronger greenback makes gold more expensive for those holding
                                             other currencies, hence denting its demand.

                                             Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,592.70 per ounce,
                                             down by 0.18 per cent at 10:39 AM IST.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                                     MCX Copper (`/Kg)
    Contract                   Close            Open            High       Low         PCP                 % Chg                Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012                 411.45           405.50          413.95        405.50       405.00         1.59                     151,912
    August, 2012               416.35           411.00          418.80        411.00       410.25         1.49                      10,132

                                          Copper futures ended higher in the domestic market on Monday as China’s copper imports rose more than
                                          expected in May 2012, signaling a pickup in demand for the base metal in the world’s largest copper consuming
                                          nation. China’s copper imports rose 12 per cent in May 2012 from the previous month, government data showed
                                          on Monday. Copper futures also rose after a report showed that Chinese banks and financial institutions issued
                                          more than estimated loans last month, a sign that the slowdown in the world’s second largest economy may now
     Copper futures ended higher in
                                          be ending as a pickup in credit growth spurs economic activity, bolstering the outlook for copper, which is used
     the domestic market on
                                          widely in industrial and construction activities. New lending by China’s lenders stood at 793.2 billion yuan in May
     Monday as robust Chinese
                                          2012, up from 681.8 billion yuan in April 2012, a government report showed on Monday
     copper imports data signaled
     a pickup in demand for the
                                          Copper futures also rose as Eurozone officials agreed to grant Spain 100 billion euro aid for its banks, easing
     base metal
                                          concerns over Europe’s debt crises, and bolstering the demand outlook for the base metal. Investors are betting
                                          that an improving outlook in the Euro area may bolster the demand for the base metal, given that the 17-member
                                          Eurozone is the second largest global copper consumer. On the MCX, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract
                                          rose as much as 2.21 per cent at `413.95 per Kg and settled at `411.45per Kg, up by 1.59 per cent.

                                          Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3450 per pound, up
                                          by 1.87 per cent at 10:56 AM IST.




                                                           Today’s Economic Calendar
    Date            Time (IST)                      Economic Data              Country                        Forecast                     Prior
     12-06-2012      02:00 PM                  Manufacturing Production m/m                GBP                                              0.1%
                     02:00 PM                   Industrial Production m/m                  GBP                                              0.2%
                     06:00 PM                       Import Prices m/m                      USD                                             -1.0%


                                                   LME statistics as on June 11, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
    Commodity                           Lead         Aluminum            Copper            Nickel                      Tin                   Zinc
    Cash Buyer                        1894.50               1943              7395.50            16810               19850                 1880.50
    Cash Seller & Settlement           1895                1943.50             7396              16815               19875                  1881

                                                   LME Index Value as on June 11, 2012 - 3,220.7*
        *Last available public data on LME website

                                                     Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
    Commodity                  Expiry              PCP         R2           R1           Pivot                      S1              S2          Trend
    Gold                       Aug,12             29765              29949         29857          29692           29600           29435             Up
    Silver                      July,12           54694              55298         54996          54638           54336           53978             Up
    Crude Oil                  June,12             4659               4817          4738           4694            4615            4571            Down
    Copper                     June,12            411.45             418.75        415.1          410.3           406.65          401.40            Up
    Natural Gas                June,12             124               129.9         126.9          125.2           122.2           120.5            Down
    Nickel                     June,12            959.1               984            971            951            939              919             Up
    Lead                       June,12            106.2              107.4         106.8          106.1           105.4           104.6             Up
    Zinc                       June,12            105.1              106.3         105.7          104.8           104.2           103.3             Up
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

  Abbreviations:
  MCX      :        Multi Commodity Exchange
  NCDEX :           National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
  PCP      :        Previous Closing Price
  NYMEX :           New York Mercantile Exchange
  COMEX :           Commodity Exchange
  LME      :        London Metal Exchange
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
  EIA      :        Energy Information Administration
  ECB      :        European Central Bank
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries




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