0.China Mobile Forecast.xlsx

Document Sample
0.China Mobile Forecast.xlsx Powered By Docstoc
					China Mobile Forecast

Assumptions                                        2010      2011        2012     2013     2014
                                              Recorded Forecast     Forecast Forecast Forecast
Total revenue                                                 524        600      650      700
Other revenue                                                    21         21       21       21
Cost of revenue                                    4.5%      4.5%        4.5%     4.5%     4.5%
Selling, general and administrative expense       34.7%     34.7%       34.7%    34.7%    34.7%
Depreciation and amortization                     16.0%     16.0%       16.0%    16.0%    16.0%
Interest rate                                                4.0%        4.0%     4.0%     4.0%
Other                                             18.8%     18.8%       18.8%    18.8%    18.8%
Other (net)                                                       8          8        8         8
Tax rate                                          24.5%     24.5%       24.5%    24.5%    24.5%
Other current assets                               6.5%      6.5%        6.5%     6.5%     6.5%
New net property etc.                                         100        120      150      175
Other short-term liabilities                      53.9%     53.9%       53.9%    53.9%    53.9%
Changes in short-term debt and leases                            5          5        5         5
Long-term debt                                                  10         10       10       10
Other long-term liabilities                        5.2%      5.2%        5.2%     5.2%     5.2%
New stock sales (repurchases)                                 -           -        -        -
Dividends                                                    2.60        2.60     2.60     2.60
Assumed price for new stock sales (CNY)                     60.00       60.00    60.00    60.00
Terminal value multiple of EBITDA


Income Statement                                   2010       2011      2011      2011      2011
                                              CNY billions
Revenue                                              464      524       600       650        700
Other revenue                                          21      21        21        21         21
Total revenue                                        485      545       621       671        721

Cost of revenue                                       26       24        27        29         32
Gross Profit                                         459      521       594       642        689
Selling general and administrative expense           161      182       208       226        243
Depreciation and amortization                         86      102       121       145        173
Other                                                 87       98       113       122        131
Total operating expense                              334      382       442       492        547
Operating income                                     151      163       179       179        174
Other (net)                                            8        8         8         8          8
EBIT                                                 159      171       187       187        182
Interest expense                                                1         2         2          3
Pre-tax income                                       159      170       186       184        179
Taxes                                                 39       42        46        45         44
Income after tax                                     120      129       142       141        138

Shares outstanding                               20.321      20.32     20.32     20.32     20.32
Earnings per share                                5.91        6.36      6.97      6.96      6.79
Dividend per share                                2.6   2.60     2.60     2.60     2.60

Balance sheet                                    2010   2011     2012     2013     2014

Cash and short-term investments                  292    315       339      319      270
Other current assets                              30     34        39       42       45
Property, plant, and long-term                   539    639       759      909    1,084
Total assets                                     861    988     1,137    1,270    1,399

Liabilities
Other short-term                                 250    282      323      350      377
Short-term debt & leases                           6     11       16       21       26
Total current liabilities                        256    293      339      371      403
Long-term debt                                     5     15       25       35       45
Other long-term liabilities                       24     27       31       34       36
Total liabilities                                285    335      395      440      484
Equity - total                                   576    652      741      830      915

Total liabilities + equity                       861    988     1,137    1,270    1,399
Balance check: Assets - (liabilities + equity)   -      -         -        -        -

Cash flow statement (simplified)                 2010   2011     2012     2013     2014

Cash flows from operations
Net income                                              129      142      141      138
Depreciation and amortization                           102      121      145      173
Changes in other current assets                          (4)      (5)      (3)      (3)
Changes in current liabilities                           32       41       27       27
Other long-term liabilities                               3        4        3        3
Total cash flows from operations                        263      303      313      337

Investing cash flows
Increase in property plant and equipment                (202)   (241)    (295)    (348)

Financing cash flows
Increase in short-term debt                                5        5        5        5
Increase in long-term debt                                10       10       10       10
New stock sales                                          -        -        -        -
Dividends                                                (53)     (53)     (53)     (53)
Total financing cash flows                               (38)     (38)     (38)     (38)

Total cash flows                                         23       24       (20)     (49)

Cash at beginning                                       292      315      339      319
Cash at the end of the year                             315      339      319      270
Notes:                                     2010    2011    2012   2013    2014
Leverage ratios:
Times interest earned                             164.4   114.2   83.3    64.1
Debt/(Debt + Equity)                               3.8%    5.2%   6.3%    7.2%

Profitability
Year on year revenue growth                       12.9%   14.5%    8.3%    7.7%
Return on equity (ROE)                            21.0%   20.3%   18.0%   15.8%
Profit margin                                     24.7%   23.6%   21.7%   19.7%

Dividend payout ratio                             40.9%   37.3%   37.4%   38.3%
Sustainable growth rate                           12.4%   12.8%   11.3%    9.8%

Total Debt                                  11      26      41      56      71
EBITDA                                     245     273     308     332     355

Valuation                                  2010    2011    2012   2013    2014

EBIT (1-t)                                         129     141     141     137
Depreciation and amortization                      102     121     145     173
Changes in other current assets                     (4)     (5)     (3)     (3)
Changes in current liabilities                      32      41      27      27
Other long-term liabilities                          3       4       3       3
Capital expenditures                              (202)   (241)   (295)   (348)
Terminal value
Total cash flows                                    61      61      17     (11)

Present value of cash flows
Discount rate                        8%
PV                                2,164
Less: Debt                          (26)
Total equity value                2,138
Per share                           105
     2015     2016
Forecast Forecast
     750      800
        21       21
     4.5%     4.5%
    34.7%    34.7%
    16.0%    16.0%
     4.0%     4.0%
    18.8%    18.8%
         8         8
    24.5%    24.5%
     6.5%     6.5%
     200      225
    53.9%    53.9%
        5         5
       10       10
     5.2%     5.2%
      -        -
     2.60     2.60
    60.00    60.00
              8.00


     2011      2011

     750       800
      21        21
     771       821

      34        36
     737       785
     260       278
     205       241
     141       150
     606       668
     165       153
       8         8
     173       161
       3         4
     170       157
      42        38
     132       122

   20.32      20.32
    6.48       6.02
 2.60     2.60

 2015     2016

  190       76
   48       52
1,284    1,509
1,523    1,637


 404       431
  31        36
 435       467
  55        65
  39        41
 529       573
 994     1,063

1,523    1,637
  -        -

 2015     2016


 132      122
 205      241
  (3)      (3)
  27       27
   3        3
 363      389


(405)    (466)


    5        5
   10       10
  -        -
  (53)     (53)
  (38)     (38)

  (80)   (114)

 270      190
 190       76
2015     2016

50.4     39.8
8.0%     8.7%


 7.1%    6.7%
13.8%   11.9%
17.5%   15.3%

40.1%   43.2%
 8.3%    6.7%

  86     101
 378     401

2015     2016

 131      121
 205      241
  (3)      (3)
  27       27
   3        3
(405)    (466)
        3,211
 (43)   3,134
                                                                        EPS Est
Symbol     Name                            Price (USD)                  Curr Yr     Avg Vol
AMX        America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V. A                       22.4          2.03      5,171,140
BT         BT Group plc Common Stock                            31.49          3.77         141,934
CHA        China Telecom Corp Ltd ADS                           53.15          3.31          78,195
CHU        China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd Co                      19.32          0.33      1,094,480
DTE.DE     DEUTSCHE TELEKOM N                                    9.03          0.76     15,245,800
FTE        France Telecom S.A. Common Stoc                      15.23          1.89      1,083,550
NTT        Nippon Telegraph and Telephone                       25.29          2.85         468,660
S          Sprint Nextel Corporation Comm                        2.21         -0.87     40,875,600
T          AT&T Inc.                                            30.25          2.25     25,396,700
TEF        Telefonica SA Common Stock                           17.21          1.72      3,695,430
VOD        Vodafone Group Plc                                   26.93          2.64      8,133,700
VZ         Verizon Communications Inc. Com                      39.02          2.17     13,873,600

Average
Median

CHL        China Mobile Limited Common Sto                        49                       977,113

Valuation of China Mobile:                                              Average     Median

EPS Forecast CNY                                                           6.97                6.97
ADR Multiple                                                                   5               5.00
USD/CNY Exchange rate                                                     $0.16                0.16
EPS Forecast USD                                                        $ 5.52                 5.52
Stock price based on multiple of earnings                               $    58 $                53


Book Value                                                              $ 24.07 $             24.07
Price to book multiple                                                      2.4                 1.3
Stock price based on multiple of book                                   $    59 $                31


EBITDA Multiple

EBITDA                                                                      39.19                39
EBITDA multiple                                                              5.1                  5
TEV based on multiple                                                     200.03             189.68
Less Debt                                                                      2                  2
Total equity value                                                        198.29             187.94

Shares outstanding                          Hong Kong                       20.32                20
                                            US ADR equivalent                4.06              4.06
Value per share   Hong Kong USD            9.76    9.25
                  USD-HKD Exchange rate    7.76    7.76
                  Hong Kong HKD           75.76   71.80
                  US ADR equivalent       48.79   46.24
                                                                                                Shares
Price/Book          Book Val    EBITDA   P/E           EPS           Div/Share    Yield         Out
              3.7        6.00   17.70B         12.73          1.76           0.26         1.2   3.87B
             10.9        2.90   7.75B           9.93          3.17           0.79         2.5   776.20M
              1.2      46.10    12.09B         17.15           3.1           0.98         1.8   809.32M
              1.4      13.91    9.71B          74.31          0.26           0.11         0.6   2.36B
              1.1        8.38   17.44B         28.31          0.32   -            -             4.28B
              1.1      13.49    18.94B         10.32          1.48           1.37         9.2   2.65B
              0.6      41.09    40.53B         10.39          2.43           0.83         3.2   2.53B
              0.5        4.36   5.63B                        -0.84              0           0   3.00B
              1.6      19.17    39.01B         15.35          1.97           1.76         5.9   5.93B
              3.4        5.05   20.27B         15.02          1.15           1.69         9.9   4.51B
              1.1      25.14    22.56B         12.82           2.1           0.97         3.6   5.11B
              2.8      13.79    40.72B         15.69          2.49              2         5.1   2.83B

              2.4                              20.2
              1.3                              15.0

                        24.07 39.19B            10.2          4.8            1.83         3.7 4.01B
          Price/EPS
          Est Next
Mkt Cap   Yr          TEV/EBITDA
86.76B         10.37            5.8
24.44B           7.91          4.91
43.02B             14          4.03
45.53B         26.31           5.97
38.62B                         4.77
40.32B            8.4          4.22
64.01B           5.79          2.56
6.62B           -2.03          3.81
179.26B        12.32           6.12
77.58B           7.78          7.25
137.70B          9.57          8.02
110.47B        15.32           3.79

               10.5            5.1
                9.6            4.8

196.66B                         3.8

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Stats:
views:13
posted:6/11/2012
language:
pages:11
Description: This is a handout for MBA student as a company stock forecasting.