Docstoc

Pathways and Risk Assessment of Exotic Tree Insect and Pathogen .doc

Document Sample
Pathways and Risk Assessment of Exotic Tree Insect and Pathogen .doc Powered By Docstoc
					Pathways and Risk Assessment of Emerald Ash Borer
Movement Into and Within the Western United States
                    December 18, 2007

                  In Cooperation with the
  Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center

                   USDA Forest Service
                    3160 NE Third Street
                  Prineville, Oregon 97754

                     William R. Jacobi

 Department of Bioagricultural Sciences and Pest Management
                  Colorado State University
                   Fort Collins, CO 80523
                william.jacobi@colostate.edu




                             1
                                     Table of Contents:

1. Executive Summary:……………………………………………..…….3
2. Introduction and Background:…………………………………...…….5
3. Objectives of Report:………………………………………………..…7
       Pathways:
     a. Nursery stock
     b. Natural tree connections between regions
     c. Firewood
     d. Logs and minimally processed wood
     e. Pallets and packing materials
4. Risk Analysis:…………………………………………….………..….8
     a. Nursery stock…………………………………............................8
     b. Natural tree connections …………………………………….…11
     c. Firewood…………………………………………….…...……..13
                i. Commercial………………………………………..…14
               ii. Campers……………………………………………....17
              iii. Second homes…………………………………….…..20
     d. Logs and minimally processed wood……………………….….22
     e. Pallets and packing materials……………………………….….22
5. Value of ash resource in the western U.S.: .……………………....…23
6. Risk Reduction:………………………………………………………25
7. Data and Information Gaps:……………………………………….....26
8. Literature Cited:………………………………………………….…..27
9. Acknowledgements:…………………………………………….……28
10. Appendices:……………………………………………………… ….30
      Table 1. New homes in western region in 2006
      Table 2. Existing Single family homes in the West, 2005 American Community Survey, U.S. Census.
      Table 3. Nursery stock insepected in 2006 in Colorado by stock type.
      Table 4. Visitor and Camper Data from National Parks in Western U.S.
      Table 5. Firewood Transportation by Campers Survey in Colorado Summer 2007.
      Table 6. State source of firewood of camper firewood
      Table 7. Example of camper survey of firewood use data sheet
      Table 8. West wide retail firewood survey results: Spring/Summer 2007.
      Table 9: Example of firewood survey form for Spring/Summer 2007
      Table 10. Large retail outlets in Western U.S. that may sell firewood
      Table 11. Estimated firewood volumes sold per year in western region.
      Table 12. Pathways of exotic pest movement on wood material into and within Western United States.
      Table 13. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Nursery Stock
      Table 14. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Natural Tree Corridors
      Table 15. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Commercial Firewood
      Table 16. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Camper Firewood
      Table 17. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Small local firewood dealers
      Table 18. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Second home owners
      Figure 1. Nursery stock movement example
      Figure 2. Natural ash tree connections and potential movement of emerald ash borer
      Figure 3: Fraxinus latifolia in Oregon
      Figure 4. Map of Fraxinus velutina distribution
      Figure 5. Map of Faxinus cuspidate distribution
      Figure 6. Map of Faxinus anomala distribution
      Figure 7. Map of new house data in 2006


                                                2
1. Executive Summary:
Exotic insects and pathogens of woody plants continue to be introduced into North America due
to improperly treated plant material and wood packing materials. Increased trade with new
countries on continents with host trees similar to those found in North America increases the risk
of importation of lethal organisms such at the emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) and the
sudden oak death pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum).

This study was an analysis of the status of pathway management into and within the Western
United States and what information is needed to fully mitigate and restrict emerald ash borer
movement into and within the region. The western region was defined as including the states of
Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North
Dakota, Oregon, South Dakota, Utah,Washington, and Wyoming.

 The specific objectives of this analysis were to: 1)Determine what pathways could move the
emerald ash borer into or within the Western United States including the states of Arizona,
Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South
Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, California, Oregon, and Washington; 2) Determine what information is
available and needed to determine the relative risk of each pathway; 3)Determine how pathways
could be modified to reduce emerald ash borer movement; 4) Determine what information is
available and needed to provide impact metrics that can be used for comparing risks.

Pathways that might allow exotic insects and pathogens to move into and within the Western
United States include nursery stock movement, natural tree connections, firewood, logs and
minimally processed wood such as pallets, packing materials and biofuels.

Observations:
Nursery stock:
    The total per year use of woody nursery stock moving into or within the west are
      estimated at 7.6- 9.8 million trees and 28.2-36.6 million shrubs.
    The large number of nursery stock moving in the west makes this one of the highest risk
      pathways to move exotic insects and pathogens
    Nursery stock can move exotic pests directly to populations of susceptible plants.

Natural Connections:
    The estimated time for emerald ash borer movement through the riparian/natural stands
      and wind breaks at an average of 3-10 miles per year would be 50-150 years to travel the
      470 miles from Chicago to Omaha NE and another 50-180 years to travel the 540 miles
      to the Front Range Communities of Colorado.
    Without human help the natural pathway movement to the west is a low risk since the
      insect can be slowed or stopped when it reaches less dense ash stands in the middle of the
      Great Plain states of Kansas, Nebraska, North and South Dakota.
    Movement within the west will be limited by the lack of contiguous hosts except in major
      metropolitan areas such as the Front Ranges of Colorado and Utah and the west coast
      where there are native ash and large urban populations of ash.




                                                3
      A GIS based analysis of the distribution of natural ash, wind break and urban ash and
       other species along these pathways would be of use in future management actions and
       allocation of resources.

Commercial Firewood:
   Sixty percent of sampled firewood in a west wide survey of retail sales of firewood
    bundles was from the state the sample was taken leaving 40% of the firewood from
    companies with home offices out of state or country.
   Commercial retail firewood can be a high risk pathway unless the wood is at least 4 years
    old or kiln dried. Old wood does not prevent exotic pathogens from moving on the
    firewood since fruiting bodies can remain viable for three or more years.

Camper Movement of Firewood:
   Based on a survey by the author of campers at two National Parks in Colorado, 9 % of
     the campers brought wood from out of state. A Michagan study indicated approximately
     the same ration, so based on these two studies a rough estimate of campers bringing
     firewood from over 200 miles or another state would be 8%.
   An estimated of the 10.4 million campers in just National Parks, 3.2 million campers
     from the east come to National Parks in the West and 8% of them bring wood from home
     or another state which would be 256,000 opportunities to introduce exotic insects and
     fungi per year just for the people visiting national parks.
   The regions with the biggest draw for National Park campers are the; interior west (4.1
     million campers); west coast states (3.6 million); Rocky Mountain states (2.5 million
     campers) and the Great plain states are the lowest (0.6 million campers) Appendix Table
     3. The Great Plain states do not have a huge draw for campers as the remaining Western
     states, but many campers pass through the Great Plains on their way to western states.
     The plains states are at risk because of the number of campers traveling through the
     region.
   Camper movement of firewood is a high risk pathway especially if the campers come
     from infested areas. Since insect and pathogen exotics can move on firewood the
     transportation of firewood across state lines should be regulated.

Second Home Owner Movement of Firewood

      Second homeowner movement of exotics is probably a low risk pathway but there needs
       to be a survey of homeowners to see if firewood is moved and education program to stop
       the movement of firewood.
      There are over 1.5 million second homes in the western states and the owners may come
       from an infested area
      A survey done by a regional government group of four counties and the City of
       Steamboat Springs in CO found of 64,000 homes, 55% of the homes or 35,000 were
       second homes. Sixty five percent of the owners of these second homes were not local
       residents from Colorado. Fifty five percent of the owners reside east of the Mississippi
       river leaving 13% from west of the Mississippi. The most common time for these people
       to use their homes was between November and March during the ski season



                                               4
      Second home owners may bring firewood from home but the numbers are probably
       limited.
      Second home owners may provide pathways for exotics on firewood and the likely hood
       might increase as the cost of energy increases and the owners want to bring their own
       fuel.

Logs, Pallets and Biofuels:
    Logs, pallets and biofuels as pathways for exotics are logically high risk pathways and
       should be regulated in the future.
    Unfortunately this study did not address the volumes and directions of movement of these
       wood products.
    Collecting data on the volume and directional movement of logs, pallets and biofuels is
       needed to assess the risk and develop management and education programs

Impact on Ash in the West:
    EAB will cause a significant mortality to ash in urban forests and wind breaks of the
       Great Plains states.
    The impact will be devastating in urban forests that have a high percentage of ash such as
       in the Great Plains states.
    Good estimates of tree numbers in urban forests are needed for future management.
    Currently there are only a few surveys that estimate the ash component in urban forests.
Mitigation and Data Needs:
    Mitigation activities for professional tree managers and government entities are provided
       and along with needed data and information to improve the mitigation of emerald ash
       borer transport and impact.
    Education and restrictions of movement of potentially infested living and dead plant
       materials is needed in the Western United States now. The public is aware of the emerald
       ash borer in the Midwest but there is limited restrictions and concerns visible in the west.
    Noninfested states and federal agencies need to have a coordinated grass roots education
       programs.
    State and Federal park agencies can restrict the sale or use of potentially infested
       materials such as firewood and nursery stock in their parks and cause defacto pathway
       restricksons that Federal and State Regulatory agencies are unable carry out. We have
       weed-free hay restrictions on national and state lands so why not with tree pathogens and
       insects?




                                                5
       2. Introduction and Background:

Emerald ash borer:
The emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) is an exotic wood boring insect that is native to
China, Korea, Japan, Mongolia and the far east of Russia. The insect was introduced most likely
on wood packing material to the Detroit, MI area in the early 1990’s. The insect had been killing
trees in Detroit area by 1992 but was not noticed till 2002. The insect has since spread by nursery
stock, logs, firewood and naturally to Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Ontario Canada and has been
found surviving in ½ inch diameter stem/branch wood (Federal Register 2007).

 Adults emerge mid May with peak emergence from late June to early July (Poland and
McCullough 2006). Adults feed on ash foliage before mating and females lay 50-90 eggs in bark
crevices. Larva feed in phloem and cambium through the summer into the fall causing a girdling
of the tree. The insect colonizes the upper branches and stems first so it is hard to detect the
insect or damage at low incidences. So far girdled ash trees remain relatively inadequate as a
monitoring device but are still the best way to attract adults. The adults apparently can fly from
0.6 miles per year to a maximum of 3-4 miles per year (Poland and McCullough 2006).

Damage:
 Over 15 million ash trees have been killed by this insect borer. In just eight cities where the
insect could potentially move–Atlanta, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, New York, Oakland,
Syracuse and Philadelphia over the 14 % of the trees are ash and are valued at 565 million
(Federal Register 2003) The cost of ash removals in the US is estimated at 20-60 billion dollars
(Federal Register 2003). A survey and analysis of EAB impact on urban ash in just Ohio
indicates a total cost of lost value, tree removal costs, and replant costs to be $2-7.6 billion. The
costs translate to $157,000-665,000 per 1,000 residents of Ohio. These costs will be handled
primarily by the private home owner and municipalities since there is limited state or federal aid
for this and other exotic problems. Unless we change the impact payment structure of exotics,
international trade is not going to bear any of the brunt of the financial and ecological impacts.

Biocontrol potential:
Two Hymenoptera insects were found parasitizing the emerald ash borer in its native range in
China. These two insects parasitized both eggs and larva. These insects may be tested as
biocontrol agents in North America (Liu et al 2007) but the spread rate of the borer is going to
make biocontrol difficult to implement.

Firewood as pathway of insects and pathogens:
Modeling efforts by BenDor et al (2006) and Muirhead et al (2006) implicate the overwhelming
importance of human caused movement of EAB to distant areas over the natural movement of
the beetle. Normal insect flight accounted for most of the newly infested areas in MI but
outlying infestations had to occur through human intervention. Adult female movement is
usually 0.8 km per day with a maximum of 4 km so long distance movement is by contaminated
nursery plants, firewood or logs. Muirhead et al (2006) found population data to predict human
activity at the source and recipient area and distance between them explained most of the
movement of the insect to new areas. They also found firewood bundles were brought from
quarantined areas at a rate related to the number of campsites. In their analysis of the


                                                  6
infestations in MI, OH, and IN they found infestations at least 200-250 km from the nearest
infestation.

Michigan’s Dept of Natural Resources found that out of 8,096 campers who brought firewood,
20% brought wood from the quarantined area and 1% had signs of EAB in the firewood
(www.jsonline.com- Are we barking up the wrong tree?)

A reminiscent relationship between firewood and a disease or insect is the exotic bark beetle that
vectors the exotic disease pathogen of Dutch elm disease (Ophiostoma novo-ulmi). All elm
firewood was, and still probably is, banned in communities trying to maintain elms in their urban
forests since it acted as a vector and breeding location for the beetle that vectors the pathogen.
Elm firewood was not necessarily thought of as a long distance pathway but more of a short-
distance pathway within or into a nearby city. There is a new exotic bark beetle that may be a
new vector of this “old disease” (Jacobi et al. 2006, Negron et al. 2005) that is renewing the
interest in restricting firewood movement.

The other recent exotic disease sudden oak death (Phytophthora ramorum) pathogen’s spores
remained viable on firewood during a 19 month drying period for up to 5 months. The initial
infestation rate of the firewood was low to begin with at 10-20% of the samples positive.

Firewood consumption:
Determining residential firewood use is difficult since users may use very different volume
measures of wood from pickup truck sales to actual cords (Marsinko et al 1984). Firewood
collecting and cutting on National Forest land is common in most western states and is
dominated by homeowners wanting to save money. However, the distances they have to haul the
wood actually make the wood not such an economic benefit (Force 1985). Firewood
consumption for home heating is variable around the country and varies by other fuel costs, air
pollution regulations and availability and the population density (Lippert and Dungan 1983,
Lynch and Mackes 2001). In Colorado in 1999, 22,000 cords of firewood were cut from public
and private lands and small bundle sales were estimated at 8,000 cords per year for at total of
30,000 cords of firewood used in CO. The bundled firewood sources were 60% from local
sources and the rest from out of state.

Duration EAB remains in firewood:
Infested logs were treated with plastic tarps, splitting wood, and by storing in shade or sun.
Emergence, survival and insect size were reduced in logs cut in early larval development times
(July and August) and splitting and storing them in sun or shade reduced adult emergence
(Petrice and Haack 2006). No treatment was 100 % effective in preventing adult emergence.
Previous work with the exotic bark beetle Scolytus multistriatus, the vector of the Dutch elm
disease pathogen, indicated elm wood was not suitable for beetle infestation after 7 months of
storage under thick clear (6mil) plastic tarps. Beetles however, could emerge under the plastic if
logs were already infested (Krawczk, et al 1982, Svihra 1987).




                                                7
Potential Exotic organisms:
Insects and pathogens that have been or could be transported via minimally processed wood
include the following type examples:
1. Tree Insects
         Bark beetles: banded elm bark beetle (Scolytus schevyrewi)
         Wood boring insects: emerald ash borer, Asian long horned borer (Anoplophora
           glabripennis), Sirex wood wasp (Sirex noctilio)
         Defoliators: Asian and European gypsy moths (Lymantria dispar ), hemlock adelgid
         Stressors: scale insects,
2. Tree pathogens
         Canker fungi: Ramorum blight-Phytophthora ramorum, Chestnut blight-
           Cryphonectria parasitica
         Vascular wilt fungi: Dutch elm disease pathogen-Ophiostoma ulmi
         Stain fungi: Blue stain complex related to bark beetles
         Decay fungi: Any fungus that can withstand the moisture content of the wood in
           transit.


                                  3. Objectives of Study

The over arching goal of this study was to determine if minimally processed wood products
including firewood are a credible risk for moving exotic tree insects and pathogens.

Specific objectives:
   1. Determine what pathways could move the emerald ash borer into or within the Western
       United States including the states of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana,
       Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming,
       California, Oregon, and Washington.
   2. Determine what information is available and needed to determine the relative risk of each
       pathway.
   3. Determine how pathways could be modified to reduce emerald ash borer movement.
   4. Determine what information is available and needed to provide impact metrics that can
       be used for comparing risks.

   Pathways of interest:
   1. Nursery stock
   2. Natural tree connections
   3. Firewood
          a. Commercial
                  i. Local-within state
                 ii. Interstate transport
          b. Private individuals
                  i. Campers
                 ii. Second homeowners
   4. Logs and minimally processed wood
   5. Pallets and packing materials


                                               8
6. Biofuels




              9
                                     4. Risk Analysis:

A. Nursery Stock:
Assumptions:
    Nursery stock is a likely avenue of exotic insect or pathogen movement to and within the
     west. For example the one time spring shipment of Phytophthoroa ramorum out of CA
     on ornamental plants from one nursery transported this pathogen to many states
     throughout North America
    Nursery stock can move soil pathogens and insects, foliar and stem insects and fungi.
    A fraction of nursery stock is inspected at origin and at reception locations by State
     Departments of Agriculture. There are so many plants being moved that it is up to the
     shipping and receiving companies to look for issues.
    Nursery stock is produced within each western state but for states like CO and AZ most
     stock is produced other states.
    The human population in the west is increasing with movement within the region but also
     major migrations from outside the region.
    New homes, city/green areas, commercial development all require woody plant material
     for landscaping.
    Existing homes require landscape change and maintenance that require new woody
     plants.
    The number of woody trees and shrubs required by new homes varies from 0 to 100’s
     depending on city codes, homeowner preferences and economic capabilities.
    The number of woody plants needed for new construction is estimated at a very
     conservative 3 trees and 20 shrubs and 2 trees and 2 shrubs for city/green areas and for
     commercial and apartment areas 4 trees and 2 shrubs for at total of 9 trees and 19 shrubs.
     Shrubs probably should be 20-30 for most high end home construction in the west. The
     number of woody plants needed per year for existing construction is estimated at 0.1 tree
     and 1 shrub per home and 0.1 trees and 0.1 shrub for city/green areas and 0.01 trees and
     0.1 shrubs for commercial areas for at total of 0.21 trees and 1.2 shrubs.
    Nursery stock will move exotic pests directly to populations of susceptible plants
    We do not know where all the nursery stock originates so it is hard to make a risk
     assessment about a particular exotic pest.
    Risk of pest introduction is high for direct shipped nursery stock and stock at big box
     stores since there are fewer professional nursery people looking at stock.
    Risk is lower in states that produce their own nursery stock but those states may be at
     greater risk for new pest introductions since they also import plant material from outside
     North America that may have exotics present on them.

Methods:

To determine the relative number of nursery stock potentially moving within or from outside
states we utilized an average number of woody shrubs and trees needed for new construction and
existing homes. We then determined the number of new homes and existing homes in each state.




                                              10
We then added a number of trees and shrubs to the per new or exiting home plant count to
account for municipal and commercial landscapes.

The number of new homes per year based on US Census data for 2006 is 476,591 with 89%
detached and 11% of these attached for the west (Appendix Table 1). The number of existing
homes in the west based on US Census- American Community Survey for 2005 data is
15,979,672 (Appendix Table 2).

West wide estimation of nursery stock movement:

The US Census data base, Table Q10. “New privately owned housing units completed in the
west by purpose and design” was used to obtain the average number of new homes completed
(476,591) for 2006 for the western region. The number of existing single family homes based on
the 2005 American Community Survey, of the US Census from StateQuick Fact data was
15,979,672 for the states in our study area (Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Montana,
Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, Wyoming, California,
Oregon, Washington). Taking these data and multiplying the number of houses times the tree
and shrub ratios of 9.0 trees and 19 shrubs for new contruction and 0.21 trees and 1.2 shrubs per
existing homes we have 476,591 X 9 trees and 476,591 X 19 shrubs for a total of 4,289,319 trees
and 9,055,229 shrubs. For existing homes, we have 15,979,672 X 0.21 trees and 1.2 shrubs or
3,355,731 trees and 19,175,606 shrubs. Thus the estimated total per year use of woody nursery
stock moving into or within the west is 7,645,050 trees (7.6 million) and 28,230,835 (28.2
million) shrubs.

Colorado Estimation:
Existing homes: 903,259 units X 0.21 trees and X 1.2 shrubs: Trees= 189,684 Shrubs=
1,083,910 shrubs.
New construction: 38,343 new units per year X 9 trees and 19 shrubs: Trees = 345,087 and
Shrubs=728,517
Estimates based on housing units: Trees: 534,771 Shrubs: 1,812,427
Estimates based on retail sales: Trees 690,000 Shrubs: 2,300,000

Colorado estimation by retail sales:
    Nursery stock is produced in a few nurseries in Colorado. However, most woody plant
      stock comes from outside of Colorado. The stock comes from over 30 states and Canada
      and is a complex and massive situation (Appendix Figure 1). Direct shipment of
      brokered trees may come from a large number of other states such as TN, MI, IA and
      other locations. Actually numbers of imported nursery stock are not available even
      though nursery stock is regulated by the Colorado Department of Agriculture.
    The cities along the Front Range of Colorado are where a lot of importation occurs in the
      west since these cities are rapidly expanding. One relatively small wholesale nursery
      brings in 1,000 balled and burlapped trees and 6,000 tree liners, 120,000 shrubs to line
      out and over 30,000 shrubs to pass on to customers per year for a total of 157,000 plants
      per year. A professional wholesaler’s estimate for the total number of plants planted each
      year on the Front Range was 600,000 balled and burlapped trees and 2,000,000 shrubs.




                                               11
       Adding another 15 percent for the remainder of the state one comes up with 690,000 trees
       and 2,300,000 shrubs.
       I think think our estimates of trees and shrubs to be very conservative since the retail
       estimates are 23% greater than the new and existing construction estimations. If we use
       the retail estimation the total tree movement in the west would be 9.8 million trees and
       36.6 million shrubs
      The number of trees and shrubs inspected by the Colorado Dept of Ag were
       approximately 622,000 in 2006 (Appendix Table 3).

Other Western States:
   We did not find a ready source of information on estimates of nursery stock sales from
      other states. We need to continue to gather this data.

Results and Conclusions:

      The total per year use of woody nursery stock moving into or within the west are
       estimated at 7.6- 9.8 million trees and 28.2-36.6 million shrubs.
      The large number of nursery stock moving in the west makes this one of the highest risk
       pathways to move exotic insects and pathogens
      Nursery stock can move exotic pests directly to populations of susceptible plants.
      We do not know volumes or where all the nursery stock originates so it is hard to make a
       risk assessment about a particular exotic pest.
      Risk of pest introduction is high for direct shipped nursery stock and stock at big box
       stores since there are fewer professional nursery people looking at stock.
      Risk is less for within continent exotic introductions in states that produce their own
       nursery stock but those states may be at greater risk for new pest introductions from
       outside the continent since they also import plant material from outside North America
       that may have exotics present on them.
      The percent of nursery stock with observable pests present are data that could be obtained
       from the State Dept of Agric in the western U.S.




                                               12
B. Natural Tree Connections:
Assumptions:

              The Rocky Mountains and intervening deserts will keep the natural movement of
               EAB from occurring from north to south and east and west within the west.
              EAB from eastern hardwood forests may move west to the Great Plain states and
               Front Range states.
              Adult insect movement is for six weeks in summer and may travel 1400 m that
               year. (Bauer et al 2003
              The leading edge of the mortality in MI is expanding at about 10 miles per year
               (Personal communication-D Smitley, Michagan State University)
              The rate of insect movement in the mid west is 0.6-3miles per year (Poland and
               McCullough 2006).
              An estimate that errors on the side of rapid insect movment for a rate of
               expanision of infestation based on the existing information would 3-10 miles per
               year

Movement through Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado:
   Based on surveys of state forest professionals in Iowa, Nebraska and Colorado there are
     relatively continuous hardwood trees including cottonwood, elm, ash between the Front
     Range of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and the Midwest.
   Since the emerald ash borer seems to be able to fly at least 2 miles between hosts,
     movement through this corridor is possible. Thus, EAB will be able to move along the
     Platt River corridor and its tributaries to the Front Range of Colorado.
   There is probably limited ability in western Nebraska and eastern Colorado for the insect
     to move north or south of the Platt River corridor since ash wind breaks are not common.
Movement into North and South Dakota:
   Movement of EAB into these two states from the east should be relatively via natural and
     planted ash in Minnesota and Iowa to the east.
   Once in eastern North Dakota there are many ash windbreaks within ½ mile of each other
     and north south flowing rivers with ash growing along those rivers.
   In the western half of North Dakota there is not enough ash within 3 miles of each other
     for the insect to move to new urban or the few wind breaks.
   In southwest North Dakota, ash grows in wooded draws but the distance between wooded
     draws is not known so EAB movement in this area is at a low risk.
   The above relative risk conclusions would also apply to South Dakota.

Movement through Kansas to Colorado:
   EAB should be able to spread fairly easily through the native ash, ash in urban forests
     and wind breaks that occur commonly in the eastern one third of Kansas.
   In the western two thirds of Kansas and eastern prairie area of Colorado, communities,
     wind breaks and natural ash stands are not common.
   Thus, humans would be the vectors in that area and infestations could be kept from
     spreading with an active management and education program.



                                                   13
North and South Movement within the Western Region:
    Native ash occur in riparian areas of southern CO, NM, AZ, UT, and NV but the
      distances between the riparian areas is potentially greater than 5 miles so natural
      movement by the insect is not likely.
    In coastal WA, OR and Northern CA, native ash and urban plantings may allow north
      and south movement of EAB.

Results and Conclusions:
    The estimate of time for movement through the riparian/natural stands and wind breaks at
       an average of 3-10 miles per year would be 50-150 years to get the 470 miles from
       Chicago to Omaha NE and another 50-180 years to travel the 540 miles to the Front
       Range Communities of Colorado (Appendix Figure 2)
    Without human help the natural pathway movement to the west is a low risk since the
       insect can be slowed or stopped when it reaches less dense ash stands in the middle of the
       prairie states.
    Humans can bring the insect to forests along east and west Interstates highways on
       firewood or other materials so the exotics will be able to move faster.
    Movement within the west will be limited by lack of contiguous hosts except in major
       metropolitan areas such as the Front Ranges of Colorado and Utah and the west coast
       where there are native ash and large urban populations of ash.
    A GIS based analysis of the distribution of natural ash, wind break and urban ash and
       other species along these pathways would be of use in future management actions and
       allocation of resources.




                                               14
C. Firewood:
Assumptions on firewood:
Sources:
   1. Firewood can be purchased at retail outlets in small bundles- (commercial)
   2. Firewood can be brought from home by tent or RVcampers, horse campers, NASCAR
      fans- (from home source or commercial source)
   3. Firewood for home heating (homeowner or commercial bulk delivery)
   4. Second home owners can move firewood from primary residence to second home
      (homeowner and commercial firewood)

Probability of infestation:
    Firewood can harbor bark beetles if the bark is attached
    Firewood can harbor wood borers for three years with bark on or off
    Firewood can harbor decay, canker or vascular stain/ wilt fungi with bark on or off (
    The duration firewood can harbor insects and fungi are not well researched and most
      information is based on expert opinions.
    Firewood can be made insect or pathogen free through bark removal and then fumigation
      or air drying for three years under cover, or kiln drying wood .
    Firewood can provide movement of exotics as it is being transported and while it resides
      in campground. Presence of host material must be present within 2-4 km.
    If firewood is used within a few days of purchase or movement, the risk of exotic
      transport is lessened but the zero tolerance required to keep exotics from being
      introduced makes rapid use of firewood a poor method of management.
    Most recommendations on firewood are based on insect development timing rather than
      general recommendations based on both fungal and insect contamination. Fungi can
      release spores during fall and spring.

Firewood supplies:
    Commercial companies supply grocery stores, convenience stores/gas stations, and big
      box stores with prewrapped bundles of firewood.
    Commercial firewood maybe produced and shipped within states, shipped across state
      lines or the US border from Mexico or Canada
    Commercial firewood companies buy directly from out of state dealers or go to those
      states and purchase wood.
    There is limited information on the amount or source of commercial firewood.
    There are some large dealers in firewood that have over 5 processing facilities in various
      states and Canada.
    State Departments of Agriculture do not monitor, license or have had much to do with
      firewood in the past.
    State Departments of Agriculture manage weights and measures so they could certify
      sources and volumes sold within the state.




                                              15
Methods of Firewood Risk Analysis:
  1. A phone survey of retail outlets in Colorado provided information on the type of retail
     outlets carrying firewood.
  2. A collection of firewood and assessment of insect and fungal contaminates in firewood is
     ongoing in Colorado funded by CAPS.
  3. A west wide direct observation survey of firewood at retail outlets was conducted by
     volunteers organized by the PI in April -July, 2007. This survey will be repeated in the
     winter of 2007-2008.
  4. Camper numbers and their likelihood to carry firewood was determined via National Park
     Service visitation numbers.
  5. A field survey of campers at Federal Forest Service and National Parks in Colorado was
     carried out in July, 2007. This camper survey will be repeated and expanded in Colorado
     with CAPS funding in 2008.
  6. A phone survey of commercial firewood companies was not able to determine the extent
     of firewood movement across state lines. This needs to be carried out in future studies to
     get a handle of firewood sales.
  7. A phone survey of individual stores as to the amount of firewood they sell in a year will
     be carried out in 2008 to refine estimates of firewood sales.
  8. A phone survey of big box store corporate buyers did not provide any information about
     amount and where firewood is moving. Regional and individual stores decide if there
     will be firewood offered so there is not an easy model to use to determine the amount and
     movement of firewood sold by retail outlets.

Commercial Firewood:
Results of Phone Survey of Colorado Retail Outlets:
A phone survey of retail outlets in Colorado has given some indication that firewood availability
varies by region in the state. In the Great Plains (eastern) area of Colorado 21 businesses were
contacted in five towns. Ten retail outlets were gas station/convenience store, three were farm
and ranch and none of them carried firewood and of eight grocery stores, two carried firewood.
Both grocery stores that carried firewood were Safeway stores. In the western slope towns of
Colorado 40 businesses were contacted in four towns. Twenty outlets surveyed were gas
station/convenience stores, eight out of nine were grocery stores carried wood (six carry year
round and two seasonally, seven were big box stores that 6/7 stores carried firewood in the fall
and winter, and one out of three hardware, farm and ranch stores carried firewood seasonally.
Along the front range of Colorado we surveyed by phone (17) and direct contact (18) retail
outlets. Eighteen outlets were convenience stores –nine carried firewood, all 15 grocery stores
carried firewood, one big box store and one farm and ranch store. Although not recorded here,
most big box stores contacted said they carried wood seasonally. In Fort Collins two big box
stores carried hardwood from PA and CA.

Table One. Survey of 114 retail outlets carrying firewood in Colorado
Colorado Region        Do not sell firewood      Sell all year               Sell winter only
Eastern                90%                       10%                         0%
Western Slope          42%                       26%                         33%
Front Range            33%                       59%                         8%


                                               16
Results of random firewood collection in Colorado:
A visual survey of firewood status (wood supplier and contact information, wood species
identification, insect symptoms, fungal fruiting body presence, etc.) was conducted at randomly
selected stores prior to visiting the city. Firewood was collected for insect rearing and fungal
isolations. The majority of firewood visibly assessed was purchased for insect rearing. As of
December 1, 2007, we visibly surveyed and/or collected 42 bundles of firewood throughout
Colorado. Forty-five percent of the wood assessed came from companies whose headquarters
were out of state (California, Texas, Kansas and British Columbia, Canada). Seventy-one
percent of the wood was conifer, 24% was hardwood only and 5% of the bundles contained both
conifer and hardwood species. We will identify firewood down to genus and/or species.

Species identified as of December 1, 2007:
    Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta)
    Ponderosa pine (P. ponderosa)
    Elm (Ulmus spp.)
    Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii)
    True fir (Abies spp.)
    Oak (Quercus spp.)
    Aspen (Populus tremuloides)
    Cottonwood (Populus spp.)
    Western redcedar (Thuja plicata)


Insect and Fungal Evidence of Firewood
Firewood from Colorado was assessed for wood species, fungal, and insect contaminants. Sixty-
four percent of firewood had evidence of Ascomycete or Basidiomycete fruiting bodies or had
evidence of blue-stain fungi. To determine if firewood can harbor viable fungi, isolations from a
subsample of firewood bundles will be conducted this winter.. If there are signs or symptoms of
fungi not normally found locally on that host, isolations will be carried out to identify species.

Fifty nine percent of collected firewood had evidence of insects. Wood bundles have been placed
in rearing cages and checked bi-weekly for emergence of any insects. Insects collected are in the
process of preservation and identification, and will be identified to genus by CSU unless there
are suspected exotics and then they will be passed on to APHIS.

Insects collected and identified as of December 1, 2007:
       Dendroctonus ponderosae
       Ips spp.
       Scolytus schevyrewi
       Other Scolytus spp.
       Coleoptera: Buprestidae (no EAB)
       Coleoptera: Miridae
       Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae




                                               17
Results of Westwide Firewood Retail survey:

One hundred and thirty six bundles were observed in over 30 towns in 11 states. Sixty percent of
sampled firewood was from the state the sample was taken leaving 40% of the firewood from
companies with home offices out of state or country. Thirty six percent of the firewood was
hardwood, 52 % conifer and 11% both hardwood and conifer. Most of the wood that was
reported was found at convenience and grocery stores. Sixty percent of the wood had evidence
of past or current insects and 57% had evidence of past or current fungal infections (Appendix
Table 8 & 9).


Conclusions on Commercial firewood:

      Sixty percent of sampled firewood in a west wide survey of retail sales of firewood
       bundles was from the state the sample was taken leaving 40% of the firewood from
       companies with home offices out of state or country.
      Big box and grocery chains seem to buy from large suppliers that provide many of their
       stores in a region with the same wood.
      One large western supplier of firewood provides wood in over 900 cities in 47 states.
      Safeway, Albertsons, Kroger, Thriftway, Wynco, Rays etc are major suppliers of
       packaged firewood. For example Kroger owns eight grocery chains in the western region
       and five convenience store chains.
      How many grocery stores are in the western region is based on a ratio of stores to
       population analysis in Fort Collins and Greeley, Colorado and Bend and Eugene in
       Oregon that ranged from 1/8,000 to 1/ 11,000 with an average of 1/9,925 so we used
       1/10,000. Convenience stores were variable per capita with Fort Collins and Greeley CO
       at 1 per 1,838 and 2,571 and in Bend and Eugene OR at one convenience store per 1,268
       and 3,108 for an average of 2,196. The store numbers were based on numbers provided
       by Goggle Map. The results were an estimated 7,308 grocery stores and 36,943
       convience stores in the western region (Appendix Table 10).
      We determined the number of Walmart, Walmart Super Centers, Home Depots, and
       Lowes stores by collecting location data from company web sites for a estimated total of
       1,351 in the western region, (Appendix Table 10).
      How much firewood is sold at retail outlets? We estimate convenience stores will have
       on average 8 X 3’ X 1.5 ft area of wood (0.3 cord) on hand an will replace that twice for
       a total of one cord per year, grocery stores will sell 2 cords per year and big box stores
       will use 4 cords. These estimates are based on observations at three Colorado outlets
       (Appendix Table 11). A phone survey of retail stores this winter will further refine these
       estimates.
      The total volume of retail firewood moving into each western state from out of state is
       estimated at 9,342 cords of firewood (Appendix Table 11).

Issues Complicating the Commerical Firewood Risk Analysis:


                                               18
      Most firewood is stored outside of the retail outlet so any insect or pathogen can escape.
       Some outlets have the wood inside so that wood posses a lesser threat of delivering exotic
       pests.
      Where wood is actually coming from is difficult to determine since the bundles only list
       the company home address.
      Big box stores in many states carry firewood during the winter season. Much of the
       firewood is from out of state. This winter wood will keep insects and fungi alive longer
       than summer wood since it will be cooler and closer to when insects moved into wood.
      Convenience stores that are large part of a large chain also buy and supply the same wood
       for many locations with in a state and region. For example Seven/Eleven in Colorado
       uses one to two suppliers.
      The wholesale dealers that provide move many cords across state lines and provide the
       large retail chains with firewood are very much on top of the issues of moving firewood.
       I suspect these companies are willing to work toward better management.
      The small dealers that go 500 miles away to get wood could be a greater threat since they
       might be willing to take risks.
      Local firewood retailers sell and deliver firewood to local clients. Many of these dealers
       import wood from other parts of the nation. For example, several dealers in Colorado
       offer oak and related hardwoods from states to the east including Missouri. For example
       hardwoods from the east and south are sold by over 50% of 20 firewood dealers
       randomly assessed in Front Range Colorado.
      State Departments of Ag might be able to get firewood to have labeling of origin or how
       long it has been dried since they certify volume of the product.


Campers and Recreational Firewood Movement:
Results:
    A survey in Michigan state parks found that 28% of the campers bring firewood from
       home and fifty five percent of these campers were 100 miles from home and 25% were
       200 miles from home.
    Based on a survey by the author of campers at two National Parks in CO, 9 % of the
       campers brought wood from out of state. So based on these two studies a rough estimate
       of campers bringing firewood from over 200 miles or another state would be 8%.
    The number of National Park visitors that camp (Appendix Table 4) is hard to put a firm
       number on but there are 10.4 million people staying over night in national parks across
       the western U.S.. How many are campers from outside the state where the park is located
       in Western U.S.? Based on estimate in Table 3 it appears that 3.2 million visitors stay
       overnight and are from the east. It is assumed that most of these people camp.

Colorado Campground Surveys
The objective of the campground surveys was to quantify the number of campers visiting
Colorado USFS and National Parks, including Rocky Mountain National Park and Great Sand
Dunes National Monument and Preserve, who are bringing firewood from outside of Colorado.
This survey is part of our statewide education and research project on reducing the risk of
importation of invasive tree insects and disease pathogens to the Rocky Mountain Region. This



                                               19
survey will help us determine the risk of invasive species importation via visitors and help us
direct our education and management actions.

Colorado parks and campgrounds visited in summer/fall 2007 included two at Rocky Mountain
National Park ,Glacier Basin CG (7/27/07), Morraine Park CG (7/24/07) and one at Great Sand
Dunes National Park and Presercve ,Pinyon Flats CG (7/20/07) and four on the Roosevelt
National Forest (Dowdy Lakes CG (7/5/07), Bel-Aire Lakes CG (7/5/07), Mountain Park CG
(7/5/07), and West Lake CG (7/5/07).

Out of 484 campsites visited….
 364 campsites were occupied (collected license plate state information)
 167 occupied campsites were currently empty (vehicles or tents only)
 197 campsites with people were surveyed
 21% of campers had no firewood and did not plan to get any
 79% of campers had firewood with them when we surveyed them
 Of campers with firewood, 91% of firewood was obtained in-state (Colorado)

Table 2. Source State of Firewood (from campers who had firewood with them).
State Source of Wood                     Frequency      Percent
Arizona                                       2                 1.3
Colorado                                      141               91.0
Kansas                                        2                 1.3
Louisiana                                     1                 0.7
Missouri                                      2                 1.3
Nebraska                                      2                 1.3
Oklahoma                                      1                 0.7
Texas                                         2                 1.3
Utah                                          1                 0.7
Wyoming                                       1                 0.7

Table 3. Sources of Colorado firewood (from campers with Colorado firewood)
Source of Wood                            Frequency      Percent
Unknown                                   10             7.1
2 x 4’s                                   4              2.8
Home/cut (yards, cabinets, etc.)          23             16.2
Colorado based firewood dealers (Shretner 27             19.2
and Sons Logging/JCK Corporation)
Local Vendor (at campground)              69             48.9

Table 4. Sources of out-of-state firewood (from campers with out-of-state firewood)
Wood source                                 Frequency     Percent
Unknown                                     5             35.7
Building material                           1             4.1
Cut themselves/backyard                     8             57.1



                                                20
Results and Conclusions:

      There are an estimated 3.2 million campers coming to just National Parks in the West and
       8% of them bring wood from home or another state. Based on this information there
       could be 256,000 opportunities to introduce exotic insects and fungi per year just for the
       people visiting national parks.

      The regions with the biggest draw for campers visiting National Parks are the; interior
       west (4.1 million campers); west coast states (3.6 million); Rocky Mountain states (2.5
       million campers) and the Great plain states are the lowest (0.6 million campers)
       Appendix Table 4. The Great Plain states do not have a huge draw for campers but many
       campers pass through the Great Plains on their way to western states. The plains states
       are at risk because of the number of campers traveling through the region.

      Hunters coming from other states to western states may bring firewood with them. The
       exact number that would bring wood is not known. A survey of hunters via some type of
       web based questionnaire when licenses are being purchased from state Departments of
       Wildlife would be the best way to educate and determine the risk. The number of out of
       state hunters from each state could be determined by contacting each state wildlife
       department and obtaining numbers of out of state tags and fishing licenses.




                                               21
Pathway Analysis of Firewood use in Second Homes in Western United States.
Assumptions:
    Second homes are common in mountain, river and lakeside communities
    Second home owners are likely to bring firewood from home if they have free wood or
     hardwood firewood at or near their primary home.
    If the home is within one or two day drive the homeowner may bring firewood.
    One to two percent of the second homeowners will bring wood since food, kids, dogs and
     other materials would fill up the vehicle. The estimate of 2% needs to be verified by
     some type of phone survey.

Methods:

Survey Data:
A survey done by a regional government group of four counties and the City of Steamboat
Springs in CO found of 64,000 homes, 55% of the homes or 35,000 were second homes
(Northwest Colorado Council of Governments. 2006). Sixty five percent of the owners of these
second homes were not local residents from Colorado. Fifty five percent of the owners reside
east of the Mississippi river leaving 13% from west of the Mississippi. The most common time
for these people to use their homes was between November and March during the ski season.

In the National Association of Realtors report (Molony 2006) based on two surveys in 2005 they
found the median distance the second home was from the primary residence was 197 miles, 47%
were less than 100 miles away and 43% were 500 miles away. The largest concentration of
second home buyers is in the Midwest at 33%, whereas 30% were in the south, west 20% and
northeast 17%.

US Census:

The number of second homes based on census data projected for 2006 using the sum of
(a)occasional use, (b) usually reside elsewhere, and (c) seasonal use, for the western states
(Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Alaska, California,
Hawaii, Oregon, Washington) was 1,493,000. These data are skewed a bit since they do not
include the states of South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas and adds Alaska and
Hawaii. Unfortunately these data are not available on a state by state basis.

Estimation Analysis:
West wide:
There are an estimated 1,493,000 second homes in west, X 0.47(percent under 500 miles) X 0.05
(estimate max percent carrying firewood) = 35,086 chances each year to move firewood under
500 miles to a second home. Is there a susceptible host near the location the firewood gets to? If
the second home is in a development then the answer is yes since green ash is commonly planted
in urban areas from Kansas to California. If the second home is in a conifer forest, the nearest
host tree would be in a nearby town. So if the insect can fly five miles there is a good chance of
introduction. For example in Estes Park, Colorado many second homes are with in five miles of



                                               22
the city center and the city street trees are lined with green ash. Bend, Oregon is another urban
example where the dominant street tree is green ash while the native forest around the town is
conifer based.

Transporting firewood for the ski season or summer recreationwould be a great way to deposit
wood that might not be burned and allow for the spring or summer emergence of insects.

Colorado Example:
Second homes, in four mountain counties of Colorado that are popular for winter and summer
outdoor activities, accounted for 35,000 homes (Northwest Colorado Council of Governments.
2006). If 55% of the homeowners came from the eastern US and 43% could drive to their
second home and 5% might bring firewood there would be 414 homeowners that would fit this
scenario for these four counties.

There are other second home communities in southern Colorado where visitors from the
Midwest, Texas and California come in the winter and summer.


Results and Conclusions:

      There are over 1.5 million second homes in the western states.
      The owners may come from an infested area
      Sixty five percent of the owners of second homes in a Colorado Study were not local
       residents from Colorado. Fifty five percent of the owners reside east of the Mississippi
       river leaving 13% from west of the Mississippi. The most common time for these people
       to use their homes was between November and March during the ski season
      Second home owners may bring firewood from home but we have no numbers to verify
       this activity or the 5% estimate used in this exercise
      Second home owners may provide pathways for exotics on firewood and the likely hood
       might increase as the cost of energy increases and the owners want to bring their own
       fuel.




                                                23
D. Logs and minimally processed wood:
  Assumptions:
   Logs and related materials can easily vector bark beetles, wood borers, canker, decay and
     stain fungi.
   Hardwood and conifer logs are moved to pallet plants in Colorado from other states (Kurt
     Mackes-Colorado State University, personal communication)
   A survey of logs via state highway weighing stations and a survey of railroad transport of
     logs between states are needed.
   Saw mills, furniture manufacturing facilities and pallet plants need to be surveyed and
     education program provided
   Collecting data on the volume and directional movement of logs was not within the scope
     of this project.
   We need more information on this topic. We need to contract this information gathering
     to a wood products and economic aspect researcher.


E. Pallets and packing materials:
  Assumptions:

      Pallets/Packing materials coming from outside the US are supposed to be fumigated
       or heat treated but a percentage have raw wood and bark attached and may contain
       insects and fungi
      Pallets/Packing materials from overseas move directly to western states without
       inspection or containment.
      Where raw materials come from for the manufacturing of palletts and the risk of pest
       introductions via recycling of pallets is a topic for high priority research
      Collecting data on the volume and directional movement of pallets was not within the
       scope of this three week project.
      We need more information on this topic. We need to contract this information
       gathering to a wood products researcher.




                                             24
Value of Ash Resource in the Western US:

Assumptions:
The hectares occupied and numbers of native, wind break and urban ash in the west are
necessary data and will hopefully be collected in future projects related to this issue. For
example there is a large USDA Forest Service funded survey of urban forests ongoing in the
Great Plains states. The remaining western states municipal and urban professionals are
interested in doing similar surveys.

Native ash: There are several species and sub species of native ash in the west.
   1. Fraxinus anomala (Single leaf ash): Found from western CO to eastern CA and south to
        AZ and northwestern NM. Single leaf ash’s largest extent appears to be in UT(Appendix
        Figure 4)
   2. Fraxinus cuspidate (Fragrant ash): Scattered areas throughout AZ and New Mexico and
        western TX (Appendix Figure 3).
   3. Fraxinus velutina (Velvet ash): Found from southwestern UT to southern NV, and south
        from western TX to southern CA. I t is the most common ash of the Southwest
        (Appendix Figure 2).
   4. Fraxinus latifolia (Oregon ash): Found along the western-coastal areas of WA, OR and
        CA and in the Sierra Mtn of CA (Appendix Figure 1)
   5.
Potential losses to native ash:
   The extent and ecological importance of these four native species is not well known but a
   literature search would be a logical first step in assessing their importance. Riparian tree
   species and their importance has been a topic of interest in the Western United States for
   years. The FIA plot system may eventurally include this resuource of “stringer” woodlands.
   Green ash has naturalized in many of the river corridors of Colorado and the Great Plains
   states. Green ash occurs as a common component with cottonwoods but the exact frequency
   is not known since there are no data on woody plants in riparian ecosystems.

Urban ash:
   There are many cultivars of green (Fraxinus pennsylvanica) and white ash (Faxinus
   americana) planted in urban areas of western states. The numbers of these trees in urban
   areas vary with state, age of urban area, and climate. Urban residential and commercial areas
   developed in the last 25 years in CO, UT, WY, and prairie states may have 10-50% green and
   or white ash.

Examples of potential losses: the following are based on personal estimates by city foresters in each state or actuall inventory
data.
           Oregon: 2-15% of urban trees are native and non-native ash with new developments
            planted heavily to ash.
           Washington: 1-13% of urban trees are native and non-native ash with larger cities with
            larger components of ash.
           North Dakota: 40% of urban forests are ash.
           New Mexico: 15-30% of urban forests are ash.
           Idaho: 1% in cities and windbreaks are ash.


                                                                25
      South Dakota: 36% of urban forests are ash.
      Nebraska: 20-40% of urban forests are ash.
      Colorado: 15-25% of urban forests are ash.

Cost of removals and replacements:
    An example of costs in Colorado would 4.5 billion dollars lost in just the value of the
       dead ash trees. The $4.5 billion estimate does not include take down and replacement
       costs which would double this value.

      The need for this data based on surveys and statistically valid sampling is imperative for
       the immediate planning and mitigation activities in currently uninfested areas.
Forest Inventory and Analysis:
    The US Forest Service has inventory data on ash but in most data sets the ash is lumped
        into a hardwood group with elms, or riparian species.
    It would be good to determine what the FIA folks can determine from their data about
        ash distributions in native forests of the west.

Environmental impact: The environmental impact of dying ash trees includes:
    Loss of carbon fixed in these trees and increased green house gas production from
      burning or decay of these trees
    Loss of heating and cooling energy reductions by homes and business
    Reduction off crop and animal production with the loss of wind breaks
    Riparian ecosystem disturbance in Southwestern and west coastal areas.

Results and Conclusions:

      EAB will cause a significant impact to urban forests in western cities and wind breaks of
       the Great Plains states.
      The impact will be more devastating in areas with a higher percentage of ash such as the
       northern Great Plains states.
      Getting good estimates of tree numbers of our urban forests would be a first step in future
       planning and management.
      Currently there are only a few surveys that give actual estimates of the ash component in
       urban forests of the west
      US Forest Service inventories are currently not specific enough in the area of ash species
       to give only a general impression of the existence of the tree.
      The EAB issue is making funding available to do surveys to determine the extent of ash
       in various areas. More funding or coordination among agencies and municipalities could
       provide a readily available and useful data set for management of all issues not just EAB.




                                                26
Risk reduction:
See detailed paythway analysis tables (Appendix Tables 12-18) for more input on risk
reduction.
  General Actions:
   1. Educate nursery plant producers, State Departments of Agriculture inspectors, nursery
       plant retail and landscape installation companies, arborists and firewood and wood
       products companies on the risk of shipping or planting infested plant material and how to
       recognize disease and insect signs and symptoms.
   2. If there are regulations implemented on firewood/minimally processed wood, make sure
       the fine is at least $1,000 for firewood infractions.
   3. Educate the public so firewood and recreational vehicles are not means of pest
       movement.
   4. The most important educational means (United States Dept of Interior, National Park
       Visitor Studies, Visitor Services Project) that should be targeted by government agencies
       responsible for tree pest management
        Word of mouth
        Travel Guides and tour books
        Web pages for park and other agencies
        Newspaper/magazine
        Maps and bulletins
        State and local welcome centers
   5. Urge states, parks, and other local, state and Federal agencies to require only locally
       produced firewood to be used while camping.
   6. Provide local firewood for minimal cost at camping locations
   7. Require all Federal concessionaires to provide certified local (within the state) firewood
       only and to require only firewood produced within the state to be used in the campground
       if camper brought
   8. All ash plants and hardwood firewood and logs should be prohibited from crossing the
       Mississippi River
   9. Urge all ash trees removed in uninfested areas to be chipped just in case they are
       harboring EAB. Chips 1 inch or smaller do not harbor EAB larva however chips may
       harbor fungal pathogens for up to three years (Koski and Jacobi 2004)
   10. APHIS requires all hardwood firewood from Canada to carry a certificate that it does not
       come from an infested area of Canada. We have not seen this on retail firewood?
   11. Encourage more public participation such as the, Union of Cncerned Scientists. Pledge:
       use local firewood, do not cross county lines with firewood, do not leave unused
       firewood, burn all wood where it was purchased.

 Organizational Actions:
  1. Each state should form an invasive species committee that keeps APHIS, State
     Departmetn of Agriculture, State Forestry Departments., University, Extension, Federal
     Forest Service, BLM and diagnostic networks communicating through periodic
     gatherings and communications.

   2. Multiple states that share pathways and similar risk should implement consistent
      regulations and educational messages so industry, public and agencies do not have


                                              27
       conflicting or inconsistent messages. For example the Great Plains states should have
       similar messages and regulations as should the Rocky Mt and Interior Mountain states
       that have huge tourist influxes and large firewood consumptions.

   3. Promote statewide and municipal tree inventories so the impact of EAB on the ash trees
      is known to the communities planning for mitigation can be applicable.

   4. Municipalities need to figure out an insurance program so funding for tree removals can
      occur rapidly if an isolated infestation is found. If the infestation is unchecked
      municipalities and the public will need hundred’s of thousands to millions of dollars to
      remove and replace urban trees.

   5. Firewood needs to be certified by State Departments of Agriculture as to its origin and
      composition. There is no way for camp grounds or the public to determine where the
      wood is from unless it is labeled. Unfortunately, for many large firewood companies the
      company address does not have anything to do with where the wood actually came from.

   6. State Departments of Ag and other agencies need to go on a blitz of education of
      firewood dealers and the public.

   7. Educational programs are not organized across regions to spread the same message

   8. Municipalities, state parks, homeowners, and farmers with wind breaks are the the
      entities that will bear the brunt of tree mortality and there are no programs to help
      mitigate these costs.

   9. A environmental impact tax should be implemented on all material imported into North
      American to provide a “super fund clean up” account for exotic animals, plants, insects
      and pathogens



6. Data and Information Gaps:
Risk prediction and assessment is hampered by the lack of data on:
    How many woody nursery plants are moved across state lines and from what state of
       origin and holding locations
    Location and numbers of natural riparian and urban trees by species-especially
       hardwoods
    How long minimally processed wood remains infested with insects and fungi
    How much firewood is infested with organisms of concern
    How much firewood is moving across state lines by commercial operations
    How much firewood is sold
    How much firewood is moved across state lines by individuals (ie campers,hunters etc)
    How many minimally processed logs by species are moved across state lines



                                               28
Literature Cited:
Baurer, L. S. Miller, D.L., Taylor, R.A.J. Haack, R. A. 2003. Flight potential of the emerald ash
borer. IN Mastro, V. Reardon, R. (Eds.) Abstracts of Emerald Ash Borer Research and
Technology Development Meeting. Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team. USDA FHTET-
2004-2.

BenDor, T. K., Metcalf, S.S., Fontenot, L. E., Sangunett, B. and Hannon, B. 2006. Modeling
the spread of the emerald ash borer. Ecological modeling 197: 221-236

Federal Register June 2007, 72:107 30459-30467

Force, J.E. 1985. Firewood use in Idaho: Implications for forest management. J. of For. Jan,
1985 p36-39.

Jacobi, W.R., Koski, R.D., Harrington, T.C., and Witcosky, J.J. 2006. Association of
Ophiostoma novo-ulmi with Scolytus schevyrewi Semenov (Scolytidae) in Colorado. Plant
Disease 91:245-247.

Koski, R and Jacobi, W. R. 2004. Tree pathogen survival in chipped wood mulch. J of
Arboriculture 30: 165-171

Krawczk, J.H., Kostichka, C.J. Worf, G.L. and Mahr, D.L. 1982. Polyethylene tarping of elm
firewood to prevent elm bark beetle flight. J of Arboriculture 8:292-295.

Lippert, F. W. and Dungan, J. L. 1983. Residential firewood use in the United States. Science.
219: 1425-1427.

Liu, H. Bauer, L.S., Miller, D.L. Zhao, T., Gao, R., Song, L., Luan, Q., Jin, R., and Gao, C.
2007. Seasonal abundance of Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) and its natural
enemies Oobius agrili (Hymenoptera:Endrtidae) and Tetrastichus planipennisi (Hymenoptera:
Eulophidae) in China. Biocontrol- in press.

Lynch, D.L. and Mackes, K. 2001. Wood use in Colorado at the turn of the twenty-first century.
USDA, For. Serv. RMRS-RP-32. 23 pp

Marisinko, A.P.C., Phillips, D.R. and Cordell, H.K. 1984. Determining residential firewood
consumption. Environmental Management 8: 359-366.

Molony, W. 2006. Second home sales hit another record in 2005;Market share rises. National
Association of Realtors. www.realtor.org.

Muirhead, J. R., Leung, B., vanOverdijk, C., Kelly, D.W., Nandakumar, K., Marchant, K. R. and
MacIsaac, H.J. 2006. Modeling local and long distance dispersal of invasive emerald ash borer
Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera) in North America.




                                               29
Negrón, J.F., J.J. Witcosky, R.J. Cain, J.R. LaBonte, D.A. Duerr II, S.J. McElwey, J.C. Lee, and
S.J. Seybold. 2005. The banded elm bark beetle: a new threat to elms in North America.
American Entomologist: 51: 84-94.

Northwest Colorado Council of Governments. 2006. Transitions in mountain Communities.

Petrice, T.R. and Haack R. A. 2006. Effects of cutting date, outdoor storage conditions, and
splitting on survival of Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in firewood logs. J
Economic Ent. 99:790-796.

Poland, T.M. and McCullough, D.G. 2006. Emerald ash borer: Invasion of the urban forest and
the threat to North America’s ash resource. J. For. ???? 118-124.

Singh, R. and J.R. Shelly. 2006. Evaluating the survival of Phytophthora ramorum in firewood.
Final Report. To the USDA For. Serv. PSW Res. Station. 11pp.

Sydnor, T. D., Bumgardner, M. and Todd, A. 2007. The potential economic impacts of emerald
ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) on Ohio, U.S., Communities. Arboriculture and Urban Forestry
33: 48-54.

Svihra, P. 1987. Suitability of elm firewood to bark beetle attack stored under polyethylene
sheeting. J of Arboriculture 13: 164-166.

Todd, J.J. and P.H.J. Horwitz 1990. Spreading insects through firewood collection in Tasmania.
Aust. For. 53: 154-159.

United States Dept of Interior, National Park Visitor Studies, Visitor Services Project, University
of Idaho, Park Services Unit.
       John Day Fossil Beds National Monument Visitor Study. 2004. Rept. No.162. 88 pages.
       Oregon Caves National Monument Visitor Study. 2003. Rept. No.147. 88 pages.
       Grand Teton National Park Visitor Study. 1997. Rept. No. 97. 110 pages.
       Crater Lake National Park Visitor Study. 2001. Rept. No.129. 105 pages.
       Bryce Canyon National Park Visitor Study. 1998. Rept. No.98. 88 pages.
       Grand Canyon National Park Visitor Study. 2003. Rept. No.144. 125 pages.
       Yosemite National Park Visitor Study. 2005. Rept. No.168. 103 pages.
       Mount Rainer National Park Visitor Study. 2001. Rept. No.124. 71 pages.
       Lassen Volcanic National Park Visitor Study. 199. Rept. No.116. 96 pages.
       Zion National Park Visitor Study. 1993. Rept. No.50. 64 pages.
       Olympic National Park Visitor Study. 2001. Rept. No.121. 113 pages.
       Bent’s Old Fort National Historic Site Visitor Study. 1993. Rept. No.48. 43 pages.
       Bandelier National Monument Visitor Study. 1995. Rept. No.76. 72 pages.
       Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks Visitor Study. 2002. Rept. No.137. 127 pages.
       Great Sand Dunes National Monument and Preserve Visitor Study. 2002. Rept. No.134. 85 pages.
       Arches National Park Visitor Study. 2003. Rept. No.150. 98 pages.
       Crater of the Moon National Park Visitor Study. 2004. Rept. No.155. 100 pages.




                                                    30
Acknowledgements:
I would like to thank the numerous volunteers who helped with the west wide firewood survey
and providing other information including P. Angwin, J. Blodgett, I. Aguayo, A. Crump, A.
Eglitis, H. Kearns, J. Ball, M. Gleason, J. Hoffman, S. Frankel, B. Geils, J. Guyon, E. Goheen,
D. Hildebrand, M. Kangas, D. Omdal, J. Morrow, F. Krist, L. Peraino, J. Pronos, T. Shaw, J.
Beaty, B. Woodruff, L. Mannix, M. Harrell, A. Kanaskie, P. Zambino, N. Tisserat, J. Walla,
M.L. Fairweather, B. Goodrich, R. Koski, Kara Hempy-Myer and acknowledge the help of
numerous businesses people who took the time to answer questions over the phone , J.
zumbrunnen and others for detailed field work and data analysis and the USDA Forest Service,
PNW, WWETAC staff for help, encouragement and discussions.




                                               31
                                            Appendix

Appendix: Table 1. New homes in western region in 2006
State          Number of new homes in 2006
Arizona                                  65,363
California                              160,502
Colorado                                 38,343
Idaho                                    17,075
Kansas                                   14,619
Montana                                    4,542
Nebraska                                   8,230
New Mexico                               13,573
Nevada                                   39,445
North Dakota                               3,529
Oregon                                   26,623
South Dakota                               5,304
Utah                                     25,873
Washington                               50,033
Wyoming                                    3,537

Total                                   476,591




Appendix: Table 2. Existing Single family homes in the West based on 2005 American
Community Survey, U.S. Census.
State          Number of homes
Arizona                                 1502457
California                              7070138
Colorado                                 903259
Idaho                                    379948
Kansas                                   744580
Montana                                  254458
Nebraska                                 474682
New Mexico                               504354
Nevada                                   550125
North Dakota                             182490
Oregon                                   909113
South Dakota                             214246
Utah                                     558769
Washington                              1584549
Wyoming                                  146504

Total                                 15,979,672




                                                   32
Appendix Table 3. Nursery stock insepected in 2006 in Colorado by stock type.

Nursery Stock Inspected in 2006 by County and Stock Type for Colorado

Sum Of QntyInsp                          Year      Month
                                         2006                                                     2006 Total         Grand Total
County            Stock Type             April     May      June     July   August    September
ADAMS             EVERGREEN                              1088    2391            445                       3924               3924
                  FRUIT TREE                     40      227       40            400                           707             707
                  ORNAMENTAL                             656       280           415                       1351               1351
                  ROSES                          300     1113    7090            115                       8618               8618
                  SHADE TREE                     50      520       736           500                       1806               1806
                  SHRUBS                         400     2643    9040           1080                     13163               13163
                  TURFGRASS                                 2                                                    2                  2
                  VINES                                  252       365               30                        647             647
ADAMS Total                                      790     6501   19942           2985                     30218               30218
ALAMOSA           EVERGREEN                              700       95                                          795             795
                  FRUIT TREE                             100       50                                          150             150
                  ORNAMENTAL                             350       300                                         650             650
                  ROSES                                  225       400                                         625             625
                  SHADE TREE                             200     1200                                      1400               1400
                  SHRUBS                                 500       350                                         850             850
                  TURFGRASS                              3000                                              3000               3000
                  VINES                                  175       100                                         275             275
ALAMOSA Total                                            5250    2495                                      7745               7745
ARAPAHOE           EVERGREEN                             530    15799    3112                            19441               19441
                   FRUIT TREE                              75    1716    2041                              3832               3832
                   ORNAMENTAL                            120     2232    1825                              4177               4177
                   ROSES                                 160    12013    2312                            14485               14485
                   SHADE TREE                            120     7080    4167                            11367               11367
                   SHRUBS                                640    19879    5701                            26220               26220
                   TURFGRASS                                       200                                         200             200
                   VINES                                 100     3513    3631                              7244               7244
ARAPAHOE Total                                           1745   62432 22789                              86966               86966
ARCHULETA          EVERGREEN                             1420                                              1420               1420
                   FRUIT TREE                            321                                                   321             321
                   ORNAMENTAL                            290                                                   290             290
                   ROSES                                 850                                                   850             850
                   SHADE TREE                            1640                                              1640               1640
                   SHRUBS                                1270                                              1270               1270
                   VINES                                 650                                                   650             650
ARCHULETA Total                                          6441                                              6441               6441
BACA               EVERGREEN                               36                                                  36                  36
                   FRUIT TREE                               2                                                    2                  2
                   ROSES                                   61                                                  61                  61
                   SHADE TREE                              66                                                  66                  66
                   SHRUBS                                218                                                   218             218
                   VINES                                    3                                                    3                  3
BACA Total                                               386                                                   386             386
BENT               EVERGREEN                               12                                                  12                  12



                                                           33
                   FRUIT TREE             30                            30      30
                   ROSES                  20                            20      20
                   SHADE TREE             39                            39      39
                   SHRUBS                 99                            99      99
                   VINES                    5                             5       5
BENT Total                                205                           205     205
BOULDER            EVERGREEN      291     338    2781   1302   220     4932    4932
                   FRUIT TREE     16      398     185    75     60      734     734
                   ORNAMENTAL     62      524     781   204     50     1621    1621
                   ROSES          333     593    6051   864    200     8041    8041
                   SHADE TREE     48      614    2338   220     20     3240    3240
                   SHRUBS         77      925   12656   1218   1150   16026   16026
                   TURFGRASS              90      160           24      274     274
                   VINES          420     400     894   431    480     2625    2625
BOULDER Total                    1247    3882   25846   4314   2204   37493   37493
BROOMFIELD         EVERGREEN              150    1215   1920   540     3825    3825
                   FRUIT TREE     96      65      125    62    220      568     568
                   ORNAMENTAL             165     159   140    1475    1939    1939
                   ROSES                  305     560   262    640     1767    1767
                   SHADE TREE     112     65      490   127    670     1464    1464
                   SHRUBS         85      540     641   305    2760    4331    4331
                   VINES          10              187   112    220      529     529
BROOMFIELD Total                  303    1290    3377   2928   6525   14423   14423
CHAFFEE            EVERGREEN             1680                          1680    1680
                   FRUIT TREE             185                           185     185
                   ORNAMENTAL             397                           397     397
                   ROSES                  277                           277     277
                   SHADE TREE             370                           370     370
                   SHRUBS                 523                           523     523
                   VINES                  145                           145     145
CHAFFEE Total                            3577                          3577    3577
COSTILLA           ORNAMENTAL                     40                    40      40
COSTILLA Total                                    40                    40      40
CUSTER             EVERGREEN                      100                   100     100
                   FRUIT TREE                     25                    25      25
                   ORNAMENTAL                     25                    25      25
                   ROSES                          50                    50      50
                   SHADE TREE                     100                   100     100
                   SHRUBS                         150                   150     150
                   VINES                          25                    25      25
CUSTER Total                                      475                   475     475
DELTA              EVERGREEN     2450    1585                          4035    4035
                   FRUIT TREE    1080    1060                          2140    2140
                   ORNAMENTAL    1000     880                          1880    1880
                   ROSES         2300    4950                          7250    7250
                   SHADE TREE    6200    3725                          9925    9925
                   SHRUBS        5500    4350                          9850    9850
                   VINES         1150    1225                          2375    2375
DELTA Total                     19680   17775                         37455   37455
DENVER             EVERGREEN              735    2157   465    1200    4557    4557



                                          34
                FRUIT TREE           140     173   120      322     755     755
                ORNAMENTAL           130    1296   270      750    2446    2446
                ROSES        103    1835    6400   1020     15     9373    9373
                SHADE TREE           60      310   287     2000    2657    2657
                SHRUBS              1015    2946   4276    5400   13637   13637
                TURFGRASS                    50             70      120     120
                VINES        20      500    2540   554      400    4014    4014
DENVER Total                 123    4415   15872   6992   10157   37559   37559
DOUGLAS         EVERGREEN            255    7189   2961           10405   10405
                FRUIT TREE           90     2773   2469            5332    5332
                ORNAMENTAL           170    3602   2676            6448    6448
                ROSES                355    2054   5236            7645    7645
                SHADE TREE           164   12166   3041           15371   15371
                SHRUBS              1000    4835   5638           11473   11473
                TURFGRASS                    560                    560     560
                VINES                250    1233   1430            2913    2913
DOUGLAS Total                       2284   34412 23451            60147   60147
EAGLE           EVERGREEN                   1530   9067           10597   10597
                FRUIT TREE                   285   2248            2533    2533
                ORNAMENTAL                   400   4976            5376    5376
                ROSES                       2100   4002            6102    6102
                SHADE TREE                 35250   8398           43648   43648
                SHRUBS                      4050   8502           12552   12552
                VINES                       1030   3557            4587    4587
EAGLE Total                                44645 40750            85395   85395
EL PASO         EVERGREEN          10730    2955                  13685   13685
                FRUIT TREE          1883    1770                   3653    3653
                ORNAMENTAL          2195    1685                   3880    3880
                ROSES               5540    1850                   7390    7390
                SHADE TREE          5920    6055                  11975   11975
                SHRUBS             16400    5875                  22275   22275
                TURFGRASS            706     361                   1067    1067
                VINES               1975    1075                   3050    3050
EL PASO Total                      45349   21626                  66975   66975
ELBERT          EVERGREEN                          225              225     225
                FRUIT TREE                         326              326     326
                ORNAMENTAL                         200              200     200
                ROSES                              150              150     150
                SHADE TREE                         250              250     250
                SHRUBS                             275              275     275
                VINES                              200              200     200
ELBERT Total                                       1626            1626    1626
FREMONT         EVERGREEN           1175                           1175    1175
                FRUIT TREE           350                            350     350
                ORNAMENTAL           300                            300     300
                ROSES               1190                           1190    1190
                SHADE TREE           527                            527     527
                SHRUBS              3855                           3855    3855
                VINES                455                            455     455
FREMONT Total                       7852                           7852    7852



                                     35
GARFIELD           EVERGREEN             550    3430                 3980    3980
                   FRUIT TREE            100    1090                 1190    1190
                   ORNAMENTAL            320    1105                 1425    1425
                   ROSES                1550    5900                 7450    7450
                   SHADE TREE           2050    7060                 9110    9110
                   SHRUBS               1200    8010                 9210    9210
                   VINES                 175    2290                 2465    2465
GARFIELD Total                          5945   28885                34830   34830
GRAND              EVERGREEN                                  111     111     111
                   ORNAMENTAL                                   2       2       2
                   ROSES                                      14      14      14
                   SHADE TREE                                 158     158     158
                   SHRUBS                                     65      65      65
                   VINES                                      16      16      16
GRAND Total                                                   366     366     366
GUNNISON           EVERGREEN                    2295                 2295    2295
                   ORNAMENTAL                    620                  620     620
                   ROSES                        1450                 1450    1450
                   SHADE TREE                   5700                 5700    5700
                   SHRUBS                       3100                 3100    3100
                   VINES                         390                  390     390
GUNNISON Total                                 13555                13555   13555
JEFFERSON          EVERGREEN    216     1822    3656   2837          8531    8531
                   FRUIT TREE   189      675     819   466           2149    2149
                   ORNAMENTAL   185     1346     739   1375          3645    3645
                   ROSES        299     1748    2256   915           5218    5218
                   SHADE TREE    89      655     878   1997          3619    3619
                   SHRUBS       866     2539    3865   1759          9029    9029
                   TURFGRASS     15      84      381     2            482     482
                   VINES         90      756     751   628           2225    2225
JEFFERSON Total                 1949    9625   13345   9979         34898   34898
KIT CARSON         EVERGREEN             483                          483     483
                   FRUIT TREE            48                           48      48
                   ORNAMENTAL            50                           50      50
                   ROSES                 482                          482     482
                   SHADE TREE            496                          496     496
                   SHRUBS                757                          757     757
                   VINES                 52                           52      52
KIT CARSON Total                        2368                         2368    2368
LA PLATA           EVERGREEN            6550                         6550    6550
                   FRUIT TREE           1130                         1130    1130
                   ORNAMENTAL           1600                         1600    1600
                   ROSES                5800                         5800    5800
                   SHADE TREE          29050                        29050   29050
                   SHRUBS               8100                         8100    8100
                   VINES                2225                         2225    2225
LA PLATA Total                         54455                        54455   54455
LARIMER            EVERGREEN            2115    2817   300           5232    5232
                   FRUIT TREE            402    1541   350           2293    2293
                   ORNAMENTAL            376    2035   500           2911    2911



                                         36
                   ROSES                2512    3016   200     5728    5728
                   SHADE TREE           1174    4617   1000    6791    6791
                   SHRUBS               4045    6000   680    10725   10725
                   VINES                1582     398    56     2036    2036
LARIMER Total                          12206   20424   3086   35716   35716
LAS ANIMAS         EVERGREEN             110                    110     110
                   FRUIT TREE            45                     45      45
                   ORNAMENTAL            12                     12      12
                   ROSES                 135                    135     135
                   SHADE TREE            55                     55      55
                   SHRUBS                295                    295     295
                   VINES                 145                    145     145
LAS ANIMAS Total                         797                    797     797
LINCOLN            EVERGREEN               1     36             37      37
                   FRUIT TREE                    75             75      75
                   ORNAMENTAL              6     10             16      16
                   ROSES                   2     20             22      22
                   SHADE TREE            28      25             53      53
                   SHRUBS                85      40             125     125
                   VINES                           5              5       5
LINCOLN Total                            122     211            333     333
LOGAN              EVERGREEN    1850                           1850    1850
                   FRUIT TREE   370                             370     370
                   ORNAMENTAL   620                             620     620
                   ROSES        440                             440     440
                   SHADE TREE   435                             435     435
                   SHRUBS       1520                           1520    1520
                   VINES        130                             130     130
LOGAN Total                     5365                           5365    5365
MESA               EVERGREEN    705     6090                   6795    6795
                   FRUIT TREE   475     2345                   2820    2820
                   ORNAMENTAL   375     7490                   7865    7865
                   ROSES        900    11125                  12025   12025
                   SHADE TREE   2250   16000                  18250   18250
                   SHRUBS       1600   10425                  12025   12025
                   VINES        275     2650                   2925    2925
MESA Total                      6580   56125                  62705   62705
MOFFAT             EVERGREEN                     65             65      65
                   FRUIT TREE                    28             28      28
                   ORNAMENTAL                    35             35      35
                   ROSES                         60             60      60
                   SHADE TREE                    47             47      47
                   SHRUBS                        145            145     145
MOFFAT Total                                     380            380     380
MONTEZUMA          EVERGREEN            3240                   3240    3240
                   FRUIT TREE           1290                   1290    1290
                   ORNAMENTAL           1450                   1450    1450
                   ROSES                4350                   4350    4350
                   SHADE TREE           7775                   7775    7775
                   SHRUBS               6000                   6000    6000



                                         37
                  VINES                 1850                      1850    1850
MONTEZUMA Total                        25955                     25955   25955
MONTROSE          EVERGREEN     1320    2500                      3820    3820
                  FRUIT TREE     840     500                      1340    1340
                  ORNAMENTAL     780     750                      1530    1530
                  ROSES         1400    2000                      3400    3400
                  SHADE TREE    4150   10500                     14650   14650
                  SHRUBS        1870    2000                      3870    3870
                  VINES          570     600                      1170    1170
MONTROSE Total                 10930   18850                     29780   29780
MORGAN            EVERGREEN     1520     14                       1534    1534
                  FRUIT TREE     300                               300     300
                  ORNAMENTAL     680                               680     680
                  ROSES         1450     19                       1469    1469
                  SHADE TREE    2515       8                      2523    2523
                  SHRUBS        2075     35                       2110    2110
                  VINES          327                               327     327
MORGAN Total                    8867     76                       8943    8943
OTERO             EVERGREEN                    477                 477     477
                  FRUIT TREE                   269                 269     269
                  ORNAMENTAL                    60                 60      60
                  ROSES                         66                 66      66
                  SHADE TREE                   276                 276     276
                  SHRUBS                       620                 620     620
                  VINES                         80                 80      80
OTERO Total                                    1848               1848    1848
OURAY             EVERGREEN              150                       150     150
                  ORNAMENTAL             200                       200     200
                  SHADE TREE             500                       500     500
                  SHRUBS                 500                       500     500
OURAY Total                             1350                      1350    1350
PARK              EVERGREEN                           17           17      17
                  FRUIT TREE                           5             5       5
                  ORNAMENTAL                          25           25      25
                  ROSES                               10           10      10
                  SHADE TREE                           4             4       4
                  SHRUBS                              15           15      15
                  VINES                                7             7       7
PARK Total                                            83           83      83
PHILLIPS          EVERGREEN                                10      10      10
                  FRUIT TREE                               20      20      20
                  ORNAMENTAL                               15      15      15
                  ROSES                                    15      15      15
                  SHADE TREE                               20      20      20
                  SHRUBS                                   30      30      30
PHILLIPS Total                                             110     110     110
PITKIN            EVERGREEN                    350                 350     350
                  FRUIT TREE                    25                 25      25
                  ORNAMENTAL                    75                 75      75
                  ROSES                        950                 950     950



                                         38
                   SHADE TREE                 850                   850     850
                   SHRUBS                     1300                 1300    1300
                   VINES                      750                   750     750
PITKIN Total                                  4300                 4300    4300
PROWERS            EVERGREEN            358                         358     358
                   FRUIT TREE           84                          84      84
                   ROSES               1189                        1189    1189
                   SHADE TREE           530                         530     530
                   SHRUBS              1877                        1877    1877
                   VINES                35                          35      35
PROWERS Total                          4073                        4073    4073
PUEBLO             EVERGREEN           1675   160                  1835    1835
                   FRUIT TREE          2221   195                  2416    2416
                   ORNAMENTAL           906    90                   996     996
                   ROSES               2965   180                  3145    3145
                   SHADE TREE          2726   235                  2961    2961
                   SHRUBS              5435   1590                 7025    7025
                   TURFGRASS           1071                        1071    1071
                   VINES               1465    85                  1550    1550
PUEBLO Total                          18464   2535                20999   20999
RIO GRANDE         EVERGREEN            310   300                   610     610
                   FRUIT TREE                  50                   50      50
                   ORNAMENTAL           10    200                   210     210
                   ROSES                375    90                   465     465
                   SHADE TREE           10    150                   160     160
                   SHRUBS               650   350                  1000    1000
                   VINES                230    40                   270     270
RIO GRANDE Total                       1585   1180                 2765    2765
ROUTT              EVERGREEN                  290                   290     290
                   FRUIT TREE                 197                   197     197
                   ORNAMENTAL                 265                   265     265
                   ROSES                      146                   146     146
                   SHADE TREE                 990                   990     990
                   SHRUBS                     675                   675     675
ROUTT Total                                   2563                 2563    2563
SUMMIT             EVERGREEN                         389            389     389
                   ORNAMENTAL                         37            37      37
                   ROSES                              81            81      81
                   SHADE TREE                        284            284     284
                   SHRUBS                            313            313     313
                   TURFGRASS                           3              3       3
                   VINES                              53            53      53
SUMMIT Total                                         1160          1160    1160
WASHINGTON         EVERGREEN    200     15                          215     215
                   ORNAMENTAL   80                                  80      80
                   ROSES        300     40                          340     340
                   SHADE TREE   150     12                          162     162
                   SHRUBS       200     30                          230     230
WASHINGTON Total                930     97                         1027    1027
WELD               EVERGREEN           1725   3435          100    5260    5260



                                        39
              FRUIT TREE            245     970                         1215     1215
              ORNAMENTAL            200    1270           20            1490     1490
              ROSES                1405    2160                         3565     3565
              SHADE TREE            365    1700           80            2145     2145
              SHRUBS               4249   10920           50          15219    15219
              TURFGRASS                     150                         150      150
              VINES                 201     825                         1026     1026
WELD Total                         8390   21430           250         30070    30070
YUMA          EVERGREEN     185     280                                 465      465
              FRUIT TREE     10                                          10       10
              ORNAMENTAL     93      65                                 158      158
              ROSES                 290                                 290      290
              SHADE TREE     49     105                                 154      154
              SHRUBS        346     295                                 641      641
YUMA Total                  683    1035                                 1718     1718
Grand Total                57447 328470 341818 117158   22487   110   867490   867490




                                    40
Appendix Table 4. Visitor and Camper Data from National Parks in Western U.S.
Region                State               Visitors to          Over night              Parks in               Average          Estimated
                                          National             Visitors in             estimate               percent          number of
                                          Parks in 2006        2006                                           visitors from    campers
                                                                                                              eastern US       from eastern
                                                                                                                               US
Rocky Mt              New Mexico          1,620,457              31,950                Bandelier              25                  7,987
                      Colorado            5,289,308             448,722                Great Sand             29                130,129

                      Wyoming             5,322,531            1,163,045               Grand Teton            37.5 (30-45)      436,142
                                                                                       Yellowstone
                      Montana             3,897,415              920,550               Glacier                35                322,192
                      Sub total           16,129,711           2,564,267                                      31.6              896,450

Great Plains          North Dakota          472,986            20,768
                      South Dakota        3,703,047            40,182
                      Nebraska              225,937            0
                      Kansas                125,408            0
                      Sub total           4,527,378            60,950                                         31.6*             19,260

Interior West         Idaho                 435,806               11,860               Craters of Moon        23                 2,727
                      Utah                7,840,356            1,651,779               Zion                   31.3 (27-35)      517,006
                                                                                       Arches
                                                                                       Bryce
                      Nevada               5,911,839             830,032                                      45*               373,514
                      Arizona             10,543,205           1,661,150               Grand Canyon           45.0              747,517
                      Sub total           24,731,206           4,160,821                                                       1,640,764

Coastal               Washington           6,518,791           661,417                 Olympic                20 (15-25)       132,283
                                                                                        Mt Rainier
                      Oregon                 806,344           68,973                  Crater Lake,           12.7 (10-18)       8,759
                                                                                       Oregon Caves
                                                                                       John Day
                      California          32,906,849           2,898,448               Lassen                 16.7 (5-20)      484,041
                                                                                       Yosemite
                                                                                       Sequoia
                      Sub total            40,231,984           3,628,838                                                      625,083
Total                                      88,574,737           10,414,876                                                     3,181,557
* Data derived from other near by state sources since state data not available.
Total visitor numbers and over night visitors from NPS Public Statistic Office from 2006 visitor data.
Average percent of visitors from east of the Mississippi available from online from University of Idaho, Park Services Unit.
Average number of visitors camping from east = (% visitors from east X over night visitors)




                                                                        41
Appendix Table 5. Firewood Transportation by Campers Survey in Colorado Summer
2007.


        HOME STATE/ COUNTRY                           FREQUENCY                 PERCENT
 AK                                                                     1                   0.21
 AR                                                                     1                   0.21
 AZ                                                                     5                   1.03
 CA                                                                     7                   1.45
 CANADA                                                                 3                   0.63
 CO                                                                   138                  28.51
 FL                                                                     6                   1.24
 IA                                                                     8                   1.65
 IL                                                                    15                    3.1
 IN                                                                     5                   1.03
 KS                                                                    20                   4.13
 LA                                                                     2                   0.41
 MA                                                                     4                   0.83
 MEXICO                                                                 1                   0.21
 MI                                                                     4                   0.83
 MN                                                                     5                   1.03
 MO                                                                    15                    3.1
 MT                                                                     1                   0.21
 NB                                                                     1                   0.21
 NC                                                                     1                   0.21
 NE                                                                     5                   1.03
 NJ                                                                     1                   0.21
 NM                                                                     8                   1.65
 NV                                                                     1                   0.21
 NY                                                                     1                   0.21
 OH                                                                     3                   0.62
 OK                                                                     9                   1.86
 OR                                                                     1                   0.21
 PA                                                                     1                   0.21
 SC                                                                     1                   0.21
 SWITZERLAND                                                            1                   0.21
 TN                                                                     2                   0.41
 TX                                                                    14                   2.89
 VA                                                                     2                   0.41
 VT                                                                     1                   0.21
 WI                                                                     3                   0.62
 WY                                                                     2                   0.41
 CAR/CAMPERS NOT AT SITE                                               78                  16.12
 EMPTY SITE                                                           106                   21.9

Campgrounds in survey: Rocky Mountain NP, Glacier Basin(7/27/2007),Morraine Park (7/24/2007), Great Sand Dunes NP and Preserve, Pinyon
Flats (7/20/2007), Arapahoe/Roosevelt NF, Dowdy Lakes (7/5/2007), Bel-Aire Lakes(7/5/2007), Mountain Park (7/5/2007), and West Lake
(7/5/2007) Total sites visited 484 and home states recorded on 300.




                                                                 42
Appendix Table 6. State source of firewood of camper firewood

  STATE SOURCE       FREQUENCY              PERCENT
 AZ                              2                      0.96
 CO                            143                     68.42
 KS                              2                      0.96
 LA                              1                      0.48
 MO                              2                      0.96
 NE                              2                      0.96
 OK                              1                      0.48
 TX                              2                      0.96
 UT                              1                      0.48
 WY                              1                      0.48
 NO WOOD                        52                     24.88
Of campers with firewood: 48.0 % bought it from local vendors, 20.3% brought it from home or
cut it on their property.




                                             43
Apendix Table 7. Example of camper survey of firewood use data sheet

                                           Colorado Campground Firewood Survey
                                                                                                                 Information about wood




                                                                                                                  Bark on Species 1?




                                                                                                                                                      Bark on Species 2?




                                                                                                                                                                                                        fruiting bodies
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Basdiomycete
                                                                                                  Species 1 **




                                                                                                                                       Species 2 **




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ascomycete
                                                                                                                                                                           bark beetles
                                                                      State Source
                           site number




                                                                                                                                                                                          stain fungi
                                         1=RV
   Date       Camp                       2=trailer          Home                     1=conifer




                                                                                                                         (y/n)




                                                                                                                                                             (y/n)
 collected   ground   NP                 3=tent trailer    state of                  2=hardwood
(mm/dd/yy)                               4=tent                                      3= both
              code                       5=other
                                                           camper




Comments:




Comments




                                                          44
45
Appendix Table 8. West wide retail firewood survey results: Spring/Summer 2007.
                                                                                                                                                           Evidence of   Evidence
                                                                      Farm
                                    Convenience   Grocery   Big box                Tree                           Out of                                     insects     of fungi
    State           State/city                                         and                    Other   local                hardwood   conifer   Both
                                      stores       stores    stores                care                           state                                       % of        % of
                                                                      ranch
                                                                                                                                                            bundles      bundles
   Arizona      Flagstaff                     4         2         0           0           0       0           4        2          0         6          0          100         100
                Berkeley                      0         2         0           0           0       1           2        1          1         1          2             0         30
                Redding                       0         3         0           0           0       0           3        0          1         1          1            33        100
                Kingsburg                     1         1         0           0           1       2           3        2          1         4          0            80         40
  California    Sonora                        3         1         0           0           0       1           5        0          1         4          0             0          0
                Truckee                       1         3         0           0           0       0           4        0          3         1          0             0          0
                Tahoe City                    4         3         0           0           0       0           4        3          2         5          0            42         72
                Susanville                    0         4         0           0           0       0           4        0          3         1          0             0         50
                Durango                       1         1         3           0           0       0           1        4          1         3          1            60         40
                Fort Collins                  4         3         0           1           0       0           8        0          1         7          0            80         20
                CO Springs                    2         3         0           0           0       0           3        2          2         3          0          100          50
  Colorado      Pueblo                        1         4         0           0           0       0           5        0          4         0          1          100         100
                Avon                          0         3         0           0           0       0           3        0          0         2          1          100         100
                Glenwood Sp                   2         2         0           0           0       0           2        2          2         2          0          100         100
                Rifle                         0         0         1           0           0       0           0        1          0         0          1          100         100
   Kansas2
                Moscow1                       1         0         0           0           0       0           1        0          0         1          0          100           0
    Idaho       Coeur de Alene
                Boise                         6         0         0           0           0       0           6        0          6         0          0            50         50
   Montana      Missoula4
  Nebraska
   Nevada       Reno                          3         5         0           0           0       0           6        2          2         6          0            25        100
                Carson City                   0         4         0           0           0       0           0        4          3         1          0             0         50
                South Lake Tahoe              0         4         0           0           0       0           0        4          4         0          0             0         75
 New Mexico
 North Dakota   Fargo/Grand Forks             7         1         0           0           0       0           2        6          7         0          0            71         28
                Sandy                         1         4         2           1           0       0           4        4          0         6          2            40         40
   Oregon       Bend                          1         4         1           0           0       0           2        4          0         6          0            83        100
                Medford                       0         2         1           0           0       0           2        1          0         2          1            33          0
 South Dakota   Rapid City                    1         3         1           0           0       0           1        4          0         2          3          100          80
    Utah        Ogden                         2         2         0           0           2       0           6        0          2         4          0          100         100




                                                                                  46
    Washington   Olympia                      2          2          2          0        0       0         1        5           4          2         0           83       83
    Wyoming      Green River2                 3          0          0          0        0       0         0        3           0          1         2          100        0
     TOTAL       TOTAL                       50         66         11          2        3       4        82       54          50         71        15          60.0     57.4
                 Percent of              36.7%     48.0%       8.0%       1.5%      2.2%    2.9%    60.3%     39.7%       36.7%     52.2%     11.0%
                 total 136



1
  In Moscow ID area the survey found most firewood is from local sources and many carry wax logs and or pellets.
2
  One convenience store had three suppliers from CO, BC and Kroger- Eastern looking hardwoods.\
3
  Kansas is conducting a survey of firewood dealers in Ks. Their data are slightly different that the west side survey so it is not presented in this table. They did
find fire wood from AR, CA, CO, MO, NM, and TX. Big box stores bring in hardwoods from TX, CA but the exact source is unknown.
4
  At Missoula MT there was little firewood found since it is seasonal and there are strict burning bans in effect.

Not all columns add up equally since one store had three different bundles of firewood.




                                                                                   47
Appendix Table 9: Example of firewood survey form for Spring/Summer 2007

                                                                Western United States Firewood Survey
                                                                       Information about wood                                                                                                              Evidence of insects and/or
                                                                                                                                                          Information of wood dealer (if available)
                                                                              collected                                                                                                                        fungi in wood (y/n)




                                                                                                Bark on Species 1?




                                                                                                                                    Bark on Species 2?




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fruiting bodies

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   fruiting bodies
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Basdiomycete
                                                                                 Species 1 **



                                                                                                                     Species 2 **
                                                         Name of




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Ascomycete
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      bark beetles
                                    1=corner store




                                                                                                                                                         State Source




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     stain fungi
           Zip Code                 2=grocery store      Business                                                                                                        Wood




                                                                                                                                                                                                             borers
   Date                     State
                                                                    1=conifer




                                                                                                                                                                                   State
                                                                                                                                                                                            Zip    Phone




                                                                                                       (y/n)




                                                                                                                                           (y/n)
           of Survey                3=department store
 collected                          4=tree care           Where     2=hardwood                                                                                          Supplier
           Location
(mm/dd/yy) (or city)                                                3= both                                                                                                                code   number
                                    5=firewood supply    Wood is                                                                                                         Name
                                    6=other                Sold




Comments:




Comments


Comments




Comments

    ** Species: pine = 1, fir = 2, other conifer = 3, oak = 4, ash = 5, aspen = 6, other hardwood=7, not determinable = 8/ Use next line for evid. of insects data if two spec. in bundle

Survey minimums: I will take any and all data. However, I would greatly appreciate if you are in a large town to obtain data from at least two examples of three types of businesses .
You may enter the data and send me the spread sheet or you can print the form and just write on the form and fax it to me (and I will enter the data). Thank you for your help with this
            survey! Bill Jacobi, william.jacobi@colostate.edu. Feel free to call: (970) 491-6927, fax: (970) 491-3862, or email with questions or comments on the survey.




                                                                                                     48
Appendix Table 10. Large retail outlets in Western U.S. that may sell firewood.

Large retail outlets in
Western US


                                           Wal                                    Home
                                           mart        Wal-mart       Home        Depot
                          Wal mart super   discount    Distribution   Depot       Distribution   Lowes      Grocery     Convenience    Census
State                     centers          centers     centers        stores      centers        stores     stores      stores         population
Arizona                               51          23              3        54                2        25         616            2808     6166318
California                            25        144               9       229               10        85        3645           16602    36457549
Colorado                              48          13              2        45                1        22         455            2072     4550688
Idaho                                 16           3              0        10                0          7        146             668     1466465
Kansas                                45          10              1        16                0        10         276            1259     2764075
Montana                                9           3              0          0               0          5          94            430      944632
Nebraska                              27           0              1          8               0          5        176             805     1768331
New Mexico                            28           3              1          0               0        10         195             890     1954599
Nevada                                23           4              2          0               0        14         249            1136     2495529
North Dakota                           7           2              0          0               0          3          63            290      635867
Orgeon                                14          15              1        23                0        11         370            1685     3700758
South Dakota                          12           0              0          1               0          3          78           3989      781919
Utah                                  28           2              3        20                2        12         255            1161     2550063
Washington                            25          20              2        45                3        28         639            2912     6395798
Wyoming                               10           0              1          5               0          1          51            235      515004

Total                               368         242             26       456               18        241       7308           36943     73147595




                                                                             49
Table 11. Estimated firewood volumes sold per year in western region.

Big box-Wal-Mart
and home depot -                           x4
1,307at 50%                                cords/yr
                  1
carrying firewood                    635   =2,540
                                           x2
                                           cords/yr
 Grocery at 75%                            =
                  1
carrying firewood                  5,481   10,962

                                           x1
                                           cords/yr
Convenience at 30%                         =
                   1
carrying firewood                 11,083   11,083
total outlets with                         24,585
wood                              17,199   cords
total X 38% average                        9,342
out of state firewood              6,536   cords

1
    See Table 10 for counts and estimates of retail outlets.




                                                               50
Appendix Table 12. Pathways of exotic pest movement on wood material into and within Western United States.

Pathway                            Original Source                      Mid point                          Final location                Risk
Nursery Stock              Production nursery in origin state   Transport to wholesaler in another state   retail nursery in new state    H
                                                                                                           big box store                  H
                                                                                                           directly to landscape site     H

Natural tree corridors     Introduction location                Riparian area, Urban forest, Wind breaks   Rocky Mountain Front Range L

Commercial firewood        Commercial production yard           Wholesale warehouse                        Grocery store                  M
                           Pruning materials                                                               Convenience store              M
                           Saw mill residue                                                                Big box store                  M
                           Land clearing                                                                   Commercial restaurant          L
                           Forest management

Camper firewood            Grocery store                        Campgrounds between home and destination   Campground                     M
                                    Convenience store                                                               National Park         M
                           Big box store                                                                   Private campground             H
                           Local forest- small dealer or self                                              Forest Service Campground      L

Small firewood dealers     Local dead trees                     Dealer storage yard                        Homeowner                     H
                           Pruning material                                                                Convenience store             L
                           Tree removals                                                                   Restaurant                    L
                           Near by state with hardwood                                                     Camp ground                   M

Second home owner          Local forest- small dealer or self   Motel if home more that one day away       Forest                        L
                           Commercial supply                                                               City                          M
                                                                                                           Lake or ocean                 M

Pallets/packing material   Asia                                 Warehouses across country                  Cities and businesses         H
                           Local hardwood sources

Logs for products          ? future research ?

Bio Fuels                  ?future research?




                                                                       51
Appendix Table 13. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Nursery Stock
Pathway           Original Source                       Mid point                                       Final location                Risk             Invasives
Nursery Stock     Production nursery in origin state    Transport to wholesaler in another state        retail nursery in new state    H               Borers
                                                                                                        big box store                                  Canker fungi
                                                                                                        directly to landscape site                     Stain fungi
                                                                                                        landscape after retail                         Root fungi

Notes:
Original source-Nursery production risk: High: Nurseries are at a high risk for receiving and introducing new exotic pathogens and insects because of the volume
of plant movement into these locations from various locations including overseas shipments. Fungi may hybridize between exotic and native strains and provide
for new strains that can attack native plants that might not have been able to since they were exotics. Large production nurseries have a lot of professional talent
that monitors the plant quality so the high risk is offset by monitoring of plant health.

Mid point risk: High. If plants are transported to a holding location it is not known by the receiving site where the plants might have been. If the holding
location is near exotic or native pests that do not reside in the receiving location there is the potential for infestation of the plants while they are in holding. The
plants will be slightly stressed because of the holding situation so will be susceptible to infestation.

Final location: High. Plants in retail nurseries are usually close to cities or within cities so insects will not have far to fly to reach a host. Cities have multiple
hardwood and conifer species in their populations that can act as hosts for exotics. The landscape where the plant is established is obviously even a better final
location for an exotic. However, retail outlets have professionals present that will monitor the stock and find infested materials before it leaves the yard. Big box
stores usually have seasonal staff handling plant that might not be as familiar with insects and disease. The highest risk is with plants moving directly to
landscape installation sites where there is less chance of someone noticing a plant health problem.

Invasives: High .All listed groups should be able to be transported and have been transported via nursery stock.




                                                                                   52
Appendix Table 14. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Natural Tree Corridors
Pathway                    Original Source             Mid point                                      Final location                  Risk           Invasives
Natural tree corridors     Introduction location       Riparian area, Urban forest, Wind breaks       Western Region                  H- but slow      Borers
                                                                                                      Rest of west via human movement            Canker fungi
                                                                                                                                                  Stain fungi
                                                                                                                                                   Root fungi

Notes:
Original source: Example-Location in Chicago- High: Large cities have many plant materials, firewood, packing materials moving into and through these
locations.

Mid point risk: High. If EAB is moving from east to west through the natural and urban forests then it will move easily north and south in communities and
forests that are near an east-west corridor. Once EAB reaches the eastern Great Plains states the risk to spread is less in the western parts of the states since tree
density is much less except along riparian corridors. In North and South Dakota ash wind breaks are much more common in the western half of the state than in
Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas. Example: Riparian zone along the Platte River has green ash component all the way to Colorado Front Range via the South
Platte and Poudre Rivers. Management would be much easier in the Great Plains where ash trees are less common and eradication would be feasible.

Final location: High. The Front Range of Colorado has a high density of ash in urban locations. Movement to the other states in the west will have to be
primarily by human movement of nursery stock or firewood or minimally processed wood. Ash host type does exist in riparian zones in the south western states
so if the insect was transported to these areas it could move but the riparian areas are separated by large distances so there is a low risk of movement to other
large urban areas of AZ and CA

Invasives: High. Primarily flying insects can move the easiest this way and fungi vectored by insects can be moved easily such as the new ambrosia beetles on
red bay.




                                                                                  53
Appendix Table 15. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Commercial Firewood

Pathway                    Original Source                     Mid point                            Final location             Risk               Invasives

Commercial firewood        Commercial production yard           Wholesale warehouse                 Grocery store              Moderate           Borers
                           Pruning materials                                                        Convenience store                             Canker fungi
                           Saw mill residue                                                         Big box store                                 Stain fungi
                           Land clearing                                                            Commercial restaurant                         Decay fungi
                           Forest management                                                        Camper- see next line

Notes:
Original source Risk: - Low to Moderate: Potentially from land clearing or tree removals in EAB infestation area People will be trying to make money from
the large amount of ash killed and removed from urban areas in the infested areas. If only one person puts this wood into the firewood pathway, it might be
moved to many states within months. Education of firewood companies should be a top priority of APHIS and State Department of Agricultures and Forest
Services.

Mid point risk: High. If the firewood source is moved to a processing area then that area there is a high probability that infestation of surrounding hosts will
occur.

Final location: Moderate. Firewood is sold inside and outside of convenience, grocery, and big box stores and supplied as heating fuel through out the west. If
infested firewood is moved to an urban community rish is hight since in most towns ash is a large component of the urban forest..

Invasives: High .Primarily flying insects can move easily this way and fungi vectored by insects can be moved easily such as the new ambrosia beetles on red
bay. Decay fungi and canker fungi can be moved when the wood is taken home and it sits outside and it can get wet from irrigation or precipitation events.




                                                                                54
Appendix Table 16. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Camper Firewood

Pathway                    Original Source                      Mid point                           Final location              Risk              Invasives

Camper firewood            Grocery store                        Campgrounds                         Campground              ?                     Borers
                           Convenience store                                                        National Park                                 Bark beetles
                           Big box store                                                             Private campground                           Canker fungi
                           Local forest- small dealer or self                                        Forest Service Campground


Notes:
Original source Risk: Low to Moderate. Firewood could potentially come from land clearing or tree removals in EAB infestation area. People will be trying to
make money from the large amount of ash killed and removed from urban areas in the infested areas. If only one person puts this wood into the firewood
pathways it might be moved to many states within months. Education of firewood companies should be a top priority of APHIS and State Department of
Agricultures and Forest Services.

Mid point risk: High. If the firewood source is moved to a processing area then that area there is a high probability that infestation of surround hosts will occur.

Final location: High. Firewood is sold inside and outside of convenience, grocery, and big box stores through out the west. If infested firewood is move to an
urban community there is most likely in larger towns (> 20,000) or towns with expanding populations numerous ash since it has become a major species in new
housing and commercial developments over the last decades. If the camper firewood is moved to high elevation conifer dominated camp sites then the risk of
introduction is low since there are few hosts nearby. The potentially huge amount of firewood moving by campers is suggested by the 10 million campers that
head to National Park campgrounds each year in the west.

Invasives: High. Primarily flying insects can move easily this way. Decay fungi and canker fungi are at low risk of movement but can be moved when the
wood is taken home and it sits outside and it can get wet from irrigation or precipitation events.




                                                                                55
Appendix Table 17. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Small local firewood dealers

Pathway                    Original Source                      Mid point                           Final location              Risk              Invasives

Small firewood dealers     Local dead trees                     Dealer storage yard                 Homeowner                   high              Borers
                           Pruning material                                                         Convenience store                             Bark beetles
                           Tree removals                                                            Restaurant                                    Canker fungi
                           Near by state with hardwood                                              Camp ground
Notes:
Original source Risk: Moderate. Firewood could potentially come from land clearing or tree removals in EAB infestation area. People will be trying to make
money from the large amount of ash killed and removed from urban areas in the infested areas. If only one person puts this wood into the firewood pathways it
might be moved to many states within months. Small firewood companies are probably not well informed on were quarantined areas are or what the latest exotic
pest is. Education of firewood companies should be a top priority of APHIS and State Department of Agricultures and Forest Services.

Mid point risk: High. If the firewood source is moved to a processing area then that area there is a high probability that infestation of surround hosts will occur.
We do not have any estimate of the amount of firewood being moved across state lines by small local firewood dealers. This will need to be obtained some how.

Final location: High. Firewood is usually sold by truck lots to homeowners or commercial establishment like restaurants. If the wood is kept drive the canker
and decay fungi will not move. Stain fungi moved by bark beetles can move if there are bark beetles present. Wood borers will have an easy time moving to
nearby host if the buyer is in an urban location.

Invasives: High. Primarily flying insects can move easily this way. Decay fungi and canker fungi are at low risk of movement but can be moved when the
wood is taken home and it sits outside and it can get wet from irrigation or precipitation events.




                                                                                56
Appendix Table 18. Detailed Pathway Risk Analysis Summary for Second home owners

Pathway                    Original Source                      Mid point                  Final location             Risk               Invasives

Second home owner          Local forest- small dealer or self   Motel                      Forest                     H                  Insects and cankers etc
                           Commercial supply                                               City                       L
                                                                                           Lake or ocean              H

Notes:
Original source Risk: High. Firewood could potentially come from commercial or tree removals in EAB infestation area. People will bring firewood if it is
readily available at home and expensive or not available at their second home. I hope the education of second home owners can become another target of
education activities in the next year for APHIS and regional dept of agricultures and state forest services.

Mid point risk: Low. The firewood will probably be hauled in a pickup and moved rapidly to the second home with most likely only one over night stop since if
the second home is over 2 days away one would assume firewood would not seem like a worthwhile material to haul that far.

Final location: High. Firewood movement by second home owners to locations where host trees exist provides for high risk of a beetle or borer to move into
the surround trees. Many homes in the west are located near lakes in the Great Plains where ash might be present. In the Rocky Mt and Interior areas many
second home are in confer forests so the risk is lowered. However many mountain communities have green ash for street trees. The amount of second homes in
the west is estimated at 1.5 million so there is a good probability some one will carry firewood. Even at 0.1 percent there is 1,500 folks heading to their cabins
with firewood.

Invasives: High. Primarily flying insects can move easily this way. Decay fungi and canker fungi are at low risk of movement but can be moved when the
wood is taken home and it sits outside and it can get wet from irrigation or precipitation events.




                                                                                57
               Nursery Stock Movement
           1

      4
                                         1
               2                                 1               1

                                             1
                                                     1   1   1
     4
                                 1

                   1   1             1

                                                             1
                             2



         Nursery Stock Movement to a Nursery in Colorado
                           24 Nurseries
                            17 States
Appendix Figure 1. Nursery stock movement example.




                                                                 58
Appendix Figure 2. Natural ash tree connections and potential movement of emerald ash borer. Arrow thickness represents the the
estimated ease of movement based on contiguous host type.




                                                                 59
Appendix Figure 3: Fraxinus latifolia in Oregon




                                                  60
Appendix Figure 4. Map of Fraxinus velutina distribution




                                                           61
Appendix Figure 5. Map of Faxinus cuspidate distribution




                                                           62
Appendix Figure 6. Map of Faxinus anomala distribution




                                                         63
Appendix Figure 7. Map of new house data in 2006




                                                   64
65

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:1
posted:6/8/2012
language:
pages:65
liningnvp liningnvp http://
About