IOTCCC 004

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IOTCCC 004 Powered By Docstoc
					          Climate change
               and
Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones


              Yuriy Kuleshov
          National Climate Centre
      Australian Bureau of Meteorology
            Melbourne, Australia
                       Outline


 Introduction
 Tropical cyclone archive for the Southern Hemisphere
 Tropical cyclone data portal
 Tropical cyclone climatology
 Tropical cyclone trends
 Summary
                    Introduction

 Tropical cyclones (TCs) are the most dangerous and
  damaging weather phenomena to regularly affect countries
  in the South Indian Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean.
 The year-to-year impact varies, and historical records
  demonstrate significant interannual variability in TC
  frequency and spatial distribution of TC tracks.
 Additionally, the climate is changing on a global scale
  (IPCC 2007) and it is important to understand how a
  warmer climate may affect TC activity.
         TC Tracy, Darwin, Australia, 1974




71 direct fatalities
Damage: $837M (1974 AUD)
$3.6 billion (2011 USD)
   TC Tracy, Darwin, Australia, 1974




•70% of Darwin’s buildings were destroyed
•Tracy was described as “disaster of the first magnitude …
without parallel in Australia’s history”.
TC Bhola, 1970


         November 1970, East
          Pakistan (now Bangladesh)
          and West Bengal, India
         The deadliest tropical
          cyclone ever recorded
         Up to 500,000 people lost
          their lives
         Damage $86.4 million
          (1970 USD)
              TC Katrina, USA, 2005




 At least 1,833 people lost their lives in Hurricane Katrina and in
  the subsequent floods, making it the deadliest U.S. hurricane.
 The storm is estimated to have been responsible for $108 billion
  (2005 USD) in damage, making it the costliest hurricane in U.S.
  history.
TC Gonu, Oman, 2007

        •The strongest tropical cyclone
        on record in the Arabian Sea
        (category 5 SSHS)
        •June 5 - made landfall on the
        coast of Oman with winds of
        270 km/h (1-minute sustained)
        •78 fatalities and 37 missing,
        $4.4 billion in damage (2007
        USD)
        •TC Gonu was considered the
        nation's worst natural disaster.
TC Phet, Oman, 2010


          •Category 4 (SSHS) tropical
          cyclone affected Oman,
          Pakistan and India
          •June 4 - made landfall in the
          Oman Desert at peak
          intensity (1-minute sustained
          winds 230 km/h)
          •44 registered fatalities
          •$780 million (2010 USD)
        WMO TC areas of responsibility




The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Tropical
Cyclone Programme has established areas of responsibility for
tropical cyclone warning which extend across the regional bodies
and also extend across the ocean basins.
   Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones
  Climate is changing on a global scale and consequently it is
  important to monitor changes in global and regional tropical
  cyclone frequencies, intensities and tracks.

  Climate Change 2007, AR4, IPCC:
 There has been an increase in hurricane intensity in the
  North Atlantic since the 1970s, and that increase correlates
  with increases in sea surface temperature
 There is no clear trend in the number of hurricanes
 Other regions appear to have experienced increased
  hurricane intensity as well
“Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere
       Tropical Cyclones” initiative
 A high-quality tropical cyclone database for the South
  Pacific and the South Indian Oceans, covering tracks and
  intensity.
 A range of web-based tools to support the use and
  dissemination of data and analyses.
 A comprehensive tropical cyclone climatology for the South
  Pacific and South Indian Oceans.
 A trend analysis for tropical cyclone occurrences in the
  Australian Region, the South Pacific and South Indian
  Oceans.
           Tropical Cyclone Archive
         for the Southern Hemisphere

                      Current status

 Best track tropical cyclone data from the National
  Meteorological and Hydrological Services of Australia, Fiji,
  France and New Zealand for 1969/70 to 2009/10 tropical
  cyclone seasons were obtained and verified.
 Complete records of estimated TC intensity from the
  1981/82 season.
 A specialised website for disseminating results and data
  "Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere" was
  established.
Tropical cyclone website - 2007 design
Tropical Cyclone Portal – 2011 design




http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/
           Tropical Cyclone Data Portal

The Tropical Cyclone Data Portal was designed using the
OpenLayers web mapping library.

This allows dynamic map navigation, presenting detailed
information for a selected region in the Southern Hemisphere
and the display of changes in tropical cyclone intensity over
the lifetime of a cyclone.

The portal also includes a number of features that can be used
to access more detailed information about the cyclones.
    Pacific Tropical Cyclone Data Portal




 “Specific location” – “on” 50 km of Australia, Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Data Portal




       Maps and best track data of the individual
       cyclone tracks can be downloaded.
           Tropical Cyclone Data Portal




A number of different map layers can be used, including place
names, elevation and bathymetry and Economic Exclusion Zones.
            Tropical Cyclone Data Portal




Track of TC Ivan (highlighted; blue) displayed over the
“Economic Exclusion Zones” layer
        Tropical Cyclone Data Portal




Cyclone tracks are colour coded to indicate intensity.
           Tropical Cyclone Data Portal

The Tropical Cyclone Data Portal will be further developed in
2012-13 under the Pacific Australia Climate Change Science
and Adaptation planning Program (PACCSAP)

Enhanced functionality will allow users to apply advanced
options for spatial and temporal selection of cyclones – to be
presented at the Third ICIOTCCC.
Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone
            Climatology


                         El Niño
                                   TC hours




                         La Niña
         Trends in tropical cyclones
        in the Southern Hemisphere

•The statistical significance of trends in tropical
cyclones in the South Indian and South Pacific
Ocean has been examined

•For the 1981/82 to 2006/07 tropical cyclone
seasons, there are no apparent trends in the total
numbers of tropical cyclones, nor in numbers of
severe tropical cyclones in the SH and its regions
                            Trends in tropical cyclones
                           in the Southern Hemisphere




Annual numbers of TCs with LMCP of 995 hPa or lower for the SH (squares, right
axis), SIO (diamonds, left axis), SPO (circles, right axis), and AR (triangles, left axis),
1981–1982 to 2006–2007 seasons, with linear trends.
  Kuleshov, Y., R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, D. Jones, J. McBride, and H. Ramsay (2010), Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian
  Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D01101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012372.
                            Trends in tropical cyclones
                           in the Southern Hemisphere




Annual numbers of TCs with LMCP of 970 hPa or lower for the SH (squares, right
axis), SIO (diamonds, left axis), SPO (circles, right axis), and AR (triangles, left axis),
1981–1982 to 2006–2007 seasons, with linear trends.
  Kuleshov, Y., R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, D. Jones, J. McBride, and H. Ramsay (2010), Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian
  Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D01101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012372.
                            Trends in tropical cyclones
                           in the Southern Hemisphere




Annual numbers of TCs with LMCP of 950 hPa or lower for the SH (squares, right
axis), SIO (diamonds, left axis), SPO (circles, right axis), and AR (triangles, left axis),
1981–1982 to 2006–2007 seasons, with linear trends.
  Kuleshov, Y., R. Fawcett, L. Qi, B. Trewin, D. Jones, J. McBride, and H. Ramsay (2010), Trends in tropical cyclones in the South Indian
  Ocean and the South Pacific Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D01101, doi:10.1029/2009JD012372.
            Trends in tropical cyclones
           in the Southern Hemisphere

•For the most intense (950 hPa or lower) TCs, there is no
significant trend in the SPO, but the trends are significant in
the SIO and in the SH as a whole. Similar results were
obtained in the annual 945 hPa counts, but not in the 955 hPa
counts.
•While some of the trends in the TC data appear to be
artificial to a degree, due to changes in TC observation
practices and analysis techniques, it is possible that TC
occurrences are subject to variability associated with low-
frequency climate modes, such as ENSO, the Indian Ocean
Dipole and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, to the extent of
having a noticeable impact on the trends.
                           Summary

Under the “Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones”
  International Initiative
 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone archive has been further
  developed and extended to 2009/10 season.
 Specialised web portal has been developed to display best track data
  from the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone archive.
 Tropical cyclone climatology for the Southern Hemisphere has been
  developed.
 Tropical cyclone trends have been analysed and it was concluded that
  for the 1981/82 to 2006/07 tropical cyclone seasons, there are no
  apparent trends in the total numbers of tropical cyclones, nor in
  numbers of severe tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Ocean.
                 Collaborators

Australia: National Climate Centre (NCC), Centre
  for Australian Weather and Climate Research
  (CAWCR), Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres in
  Brisbane, Darwin and Perth
Fiji: Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre
  (RSMC) Nadi
France: RSMC La Reunion, Université de la
  Réunion
New Zealand: Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres
  in Wellington
            Acknowledgement

Australian Agency for International Development
(AusAID) and the Department of Climate Change
and Energy Efficiency (DCCEE) provided financial
support for this research.
Thank you

				
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posted:6/8/2012
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