Coastal Vulnerability & Adaptation Assessment Process by ajvjecm


									   Coastal Vulnerability &
Adaptation Assessment Process

                   Pasha Carruthers,
       Cook Islands National Environment Service
         Jakarta, Indonesia, March 20th , 2006

Cook Islands Experiences & Challenges
                   Cook Islands
– Island micro-state
   • Latitude 9-22°S
   • Longitude 157-166°W
   • limited land size (240 sq km)
   • small population size (16,000?)
   • limited natural resources
   • external economic and physical
                                       Today’s Presentation:
     impacts important
   • geographic diversity with both    Background
     high and low islands- V&A only    Experience
     done on 3 islands
                                       Future Directions
Socio-economic elements
          • All live within 5
            km of coast
          • Tourism
          • Pearls
          • Commercial and
          • Coastal
            Flood Plain
• Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
      • needed to produce “The Initial National Communication”

• PICCAP - Pacific Islands                    • Country Team Approach
  Climate Change Assistance
                                              • USP V&A Course
  Programme: 1997-2001
                                                – Expected to integrate
   – Implemented by SPREP
                                                  emphasis on model
     (South Pacific Regional
                                                  scenario generation –
     Environment Programme)
   – Assist countries to meet
                                                Instead focused on:
     their obligations under the
                                                   – expanding the V&A
     Convention                                      statement to enhance full
   – Provided technical                              representation of the country
     assistance, training,                         – qualitative baselines
     capacity building                             – public awareness
Cook Islands INC Experience
• Methods applied limited mainly to
  analogues, expert judgment,
• Assumptions Not Tested
• Why so limited?
  – Relevance to scale
  – Capacity and Technology
  – Poor understanding of other methods
             Models and Decisions
• Integrated Assessment Models still more theory than
  – MAGICC, IMAGE & others have benefits but time
    consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
• Expensive PACCLIM demonstration tool has had
  limited applicability
  – not simple, too many errors, closed programs
  – useful application at the decision maker level requires a
    motivator and a greater level of completeness.
  – Role as a training tool, for identifying cross sectoral
        PACCLIM Outputs

Where is my island?
      Example of Cook Clim Inundation
Concerns:       Simulation
Only for one island
Not visually significant
for decision makers
Population & Socio-
economic info missing
Time Consuming
       Brainstorming Method
Main Types Of Coastal Sector Impacts

Temperature                 Coral bleaching
                            Coastal Vegetation
                            Heat Stress
Precipitation               Fresh water & Sediment in
                            runoff, harms marine life
Sea Level Rise              Reefs able to cope?
                            Less wave force breaking
Inundation & Flooding       Potential saline intrusion,
                            shoreline retreat, infrastructure
Tropical Cyclones & Storm   Rapid coastal erosion/ accretion,
Surges                      Damage and loss of life
ENSO Events                 Fish migration patterns change
 Observed Impacts

Coastal Zones - erosion
Exposure of infrastructure and housing to storm surge. Rarotonga -
Coconut trees frequently falling over, rock walls, groynes etc
                Observed Impacts cont
           Coastal Zones and Coral Reefs
              •Coral Bleaching, poor reef health

Tongareva - Exposed coral heads sensitive to temperature increases
Observed Impacts

• Storm Surge, Cyclones
                         Observed Impacts

                        Resources intrusion is always a threat
            Waterislands means saltwater- Salinisation to shallow
The narrow width of the
wells such as these. Drought reduces the fresh water level, and risks contamination.
               Research Method –
             Information Gathering

• Needed
  – an information paper on V&A
    objectives for stakeholders
  – consultations with key ministries
    and consultants
  – Island specific data relevant to
    the scope of the assessment
  – collated published information
    • physical, social, economic,
 Field Research                         Challenges
• Focal point established        • Trust
• Overview of the island
                                 • Limited time
• Meetings with government
  officials, community leaders   • Presenting complex
• Informal discussions
• School and Media               • Getting relevant input
  Presentations                  • Recording feedback
• Qualitative observations       • Verifying anecdotes
  including anecdotal evidence
                                 • Quantifying
                                   observations and
                                     Island Specific:
                             Mangaia and Storm Surge

Housing located on makatea ridge
Coral is porous
Storm surges increase swamp
salinity – anecdotal – no baseline

                                Taro Root Crops Suffer
                                -major export
                                     Figure 5 Because of the porous limestone and caves, sea level rise is
                                     a threat to the fertile inland agriculture swamps. After Nunn, 1994
                                -source of nutrition
             Nature of Findings
• Poor linkages between levels of government,
  departments, and external projects/consultants

• Data access and storage disjointed
• Coastal zone as a climate sensitive sector
  – lack of locally relevant scientific assessment tools
    (although maybe have some now!)
  – insight from locals e.g. salt water intrusion
  – but difficulty remained as to what decisions to make
      Coastal Area Adaptation Options
          Brainstorming Method
• Traditional Measures
  – reforestation, housing, windbreaks
• Technology
  – Coastal protection devices
• Community
  – Coastal Vegetation Planting
  – Awareness/Education
• Policy                                           -   -

  – Promote sustainable development - ecotourism
  – Conservation, ICZM
   Expert Judgement use in identifying adaptation options
       Example: Marine Resources in Coastal Area
• Areas of concern
  – erosion, coral reef resilience, near shore fisheries, pearl
• Adaptation options - Generalised
  –   development away from shoreline
  –   integrated coastal management
  –   ra’ui, incorporate traditional and modern conservation
  –   monitoring, sensitive species and rehabilitation plans
  –   education and awareness
  –   Reduce sources of sedimentation and eutrophication
                      Current Practices – new
                       methods, more data
• Case studies -Site specific and localised assessment,
  – CBDAMPIC, Participatory V&A, Adaptation Option
  – CLIMAP – Modelling Coastal Inundation & Costs of
  – AIACC – Research based – lack of data for modelling
• Use of technology such as GIS
• More focus on adaptation option assessment, costs
  and benefits, socioeconomic and livelihood aspects,
  integration into policy, promotion of adaptation
                   Lessons Learnt
• Different islands in the Cooks have very different
  vulnerability profiles and adaptation needs
• Lack of quantitative assessment tools and data means
  baselines are difficult to establish
• Meetings can be hard to arrange – informants feel ‘over
  consulted’ frustrated by studies and no action
• Recording everything in a systematic way vital , time
• Need to Verify facts from all sources as many repeat
• Much awareness can be generated simply through audio-
  visual resources
• Incorporation of climate relevant policies into island
  development plans ongoing issue
               Future Directions
– Open Structure Models, focused data collection
– Access to national and international technical expertise
– Improve results obtained from simple methods, interview
  skills, checklists
– Reporting Important, takes time, need benchmarks
   • Risk Management and coping ability
   • Integrated management plans
   • Implementation through policy, National Implementation
   • Public & Education Awareness
   • Continued lobbying for adaptation assistance

Recognising the urgency of these assessments, the
 time constraints (3 years) in which we have to
 produce the second national communications, one
 role for us is to ensure the V&A produces better
 information and baselines for now and the future so
 we are further ahead for precautionary approaches.
                       Levels to Cook Islands V&A Assessments

                                                                            Level 1
        Environmental Health                        Island Specific

 Baseline Data Available
                                            Government                      Level 2
                            Environment Service
                            PICCAP Project                 Country Specific

    Economic Cost
of Climate Change          Country Team
Suitable Adaptation                                         GEF             Level 3
           Options     Island Councils
      Local Decision
             Makers                                  APN              Global
                               Capacity                               Regional
                Tradition                         SPREP
          Public Awareness of
                                     National        SURVAS
               Climate Issues

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