Commodity Research Report 06-June-2012
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Check Indian commodity analyses and report of 06 June 2012 by Alankit Assignment Ltd.
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Daily Commodity Watch
June 6, 2012 www.alankit.com
Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:
US services activity, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of the
nation’s economy, accelerated in May 2012, raising optimism that
the world’s largest economy is weathering the European debt
turmoil. The Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose
to 53.7 in May 2012 from 53.5 in April 2012, with a reading above 50
signaling expansion in services activity over the previous month.
Crude Oil futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday as
robust US economic data lifted the demand outlook for the fuel.
US crude oil inventories fell 1.8 million barrels to 384.1 million
barrels in the week ended June 1, signaling a pickup in fuel demand
in the world’s largest crude oil consumer, the American Petroleum Crude oil intraday chart
Institute said. The report also supported crude oil futures on
Tuesday.
Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations
vowed speedy and coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt
turmoil. G7 officials said that they will coordinate efforts to help
restore the public finances of Greece and Spain on a sustainable
platform. Crude futures also rose on optimism that a swift solution to
Europe’s debt woes may boost fuel demand.
Gold futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday and
breached the `30,000 per 10 gram mark as investors and speculators
created fresh positions in the precious metal on hopes that global
policymakers will undertake further policy easing measures to Copper intraday chart
bolster economic growth.
A combined gauge of manufacturing and services output in the Euro
area shrank at the fastest pace in nearly three years last month,
underscoring the economic gloom plaguing the region. The Eurozone
PMI Composite Output Index fell to 46 in May 2012 from 46.7 in April
2012, with a reading below 50 signaling contraction in private sector
output over the previous month. Copper futures fell on Tuesday
amid worries that a deepening economic downturn in Europe may
crimp the demand for the base metal.
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Market Overview Commodity Indices at MCX
Indices Close PCP %Chg
On June 05, 2012 (Tuesday), the domestic commodity markets closed on a positive
MCXCOMDEX 3650.08 3632.17 0.49
note, after volatile trading through the trading session, as expectation of positive
MCXMETAL 4935.73 4918.75 0.34
outcomes at G7 meeting lifted the market sentiment. Meanwhile, the situation in
MCXENERGY 3171 3148.82 0.70
the Euro zone remained in focus as Euro zone’s retail sales declined 1 per cent in
April, 2012 following 0.3 per cent gain in the prior month, intensifying concerns MCXAGRI 2766.94 2752.14 0.53
over the region. However, a stronger U.S. dollar put some pressure on industrial
commodities, but loses offset after the finance ministers and central bank Index at NCDEX
governors from the Group of Seven nations agreed yesterday to coordinate their Index Close PCP %Chg
response to the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis. On Tuesday, all the four indices, Dhaanya 2307.45 2326.54 (0.82)
at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), settled in the positive terrain.
MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,650.08 (up by 0.49 per cent), MCXMETAL closed at
Top Gainers at MCX
4,935.73 (up by 0.34 per cent), MCXENERGY closed at 3,171 (up by 0.70 per cent),
while MCXAGRI closed at 2,766.94 (up by 0.53). Commodity Expiry Close (`) PCP (`) % Chg
Mentha Oil Sep 1375.90 1323 4
Mentha Oil Aug 1349 1312.70 2.77
MCXENERGY was the top gainer among all the indices as both crude oil and natural
Mentha Oil June 1321.80 1286.60 2.74
gas advanced in the domestic market following firm overseas cues. Natural gas
Mentha Oil July 1337.30 1302.30 2.69
gained for a second straight trading session on forecasts for warmer weather that
Natural gas June 136.90 134.20 2.01
could boost air conditioning demand. Moreover, fall in natural gas production in
the U.S. also acted as a supportive factor for prices. The Energy Information
Administration (EIA) reported last week that U.S. natural gas production declined by Top Losers at MCX
0.4 per cent to 71.76 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in March 2012 as producers continued Commodity Expiry Close(`) PCP (`) % Chg
to scale back drilling in the face of low prices. It was a second monthly fall after a Potato TRWT Aug 995.20 1009 (1.37)
revised 1 per cent decline in February 2012. Cardamom Aug 1265 1277.80 (1.00)
Potato Aug 1177 1188.60 (0.98)
MCXMETAL also ended with positive note as most of the base metals and precious Potato July 1113.60 1123.90 (0.92)
metals climbed. Gold prices ended above 30,000 levels in the domestic bullion Cotton Aug 15850 15990 (0.88)
market on speculation that the world’s policy makers will take measures to
stimulate economic growth, reviving demand for the metal as an inflation hedge. Top Gainers at NCDEX
Commodity Expiry Close(`) PCP (`) % Chg
Mentha oil futures were the top gainers among all the commodities on the back of Kapas Feb,13 933 921 1.30
fresh long positions at the existing lower price levels amid firm spot demand from Steel Long June 32620 32220 1.24
pharmaceutical industries. Mentha oil futures for September contract ended 4 per Pepper June 38490 38200 0.76
cent higher at `1,375.90 per kg on MCX. Moreover, expectation of lower output in Gur Chaku Nov 1030.50 1023 0.73
the major producing regions also sent the prices higher. Gold Aug 30100 29908 0.64
On Tuesday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were crude oil Top Losers at NCDEX
for June 2012 contract with 1,91,741 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract with Commodity Expiry Close (`) PCP (`) % Chg
1,44,710 lots, Copper for June 2012 contract with 1,29,437 lots, Gold Petal for June Barley Sep 1300.50 1354 (3.95)
2012 contract with 1,11,619 lots and Silver M for June 2012 contract with 1,00,844 Chilli June 4498 4614 (2.51)
lots. Barley July 1239 1270.50 (2.48)
Turmeric June 3384 3468 (2.42)
At MCX, natural gas futures for June contract closed at `136.90 per mmBtu, up by Chana Sep 4290 4393 (2.34)
2.01 per cent, after opening at `135.60 against the previous closing of `134.20. It
touched an intra-day high of `138.70 till the closing.
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Fundamental Market Overview
MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
June, 2012 4688 4667 4727 4660 4661 0.58 191,741
July, 2012 4728 4710 4769 4700 4702 0.55 18,243
Crude Oil futures rose more than 0.50 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday as robust US economic data
and a drop in US crude oil stockpiles lifted the demand outlook for the fuel. Crude oil futures rose after a report
showed that US services activity, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of the nation’s economy, accelerated in
May 2012, raising optimism that the world’s largest economy is weathering the European debt turmoil and
boosting the demand outlook for the fuel. The Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose to 53.7 in
Crude oil futures ended higher May 2012 from 53.5 in April 2012, with a reading above 50 signaling expansion in services activity over the
in the domestic market on previous month. Crude futures were also supported by a report that showed a drop in US crude oil stockpiles last
Tuesday as robust US week. US crude oil inventories fell 1.8 million barrels to 384.1 million barrels in the week ended June 1, signaling
economic data and a drop in
a pickup in fuel demand in the world’s largest crude oil consumer, the American Petroleum Institute said.
US crude oil stockpiles lifted
the demand outlook for the
fuel Crude futures also rose on optimism that a swift solution to Europe’s debt woes may boost fuel demand.
Sentiment was boosted after finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations vowed speedy
and coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt turmoil, while a report said that the Eurozone bailout fund was
preparing a precautionary credit line for Spain as the nation struggles to recapitalize its banks. G7 officials said
that they will coordinate efforts to help restore the public finances of Greece and Spain on a sustainable
platform. Investors are betting that an improving outlook in Europe may bolster fuel demand. At the MCX, crude
oil futures for the June 2012 contract rose as much as 1.42 per cent at `4,727 per barrel and settled at `4,688
per barrel, up by 0.58 per cent.
Currently, crude oil futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $84.98 per barrel, up by 0.82 per cent at 10:02 AM IST.
MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
June, 2012 29837 29757 30150 29742 29668 0.57 249
August 2012 30011 29956 30119 29953 29918 0.31 30,316
Gold futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday and breached the ` 30,000 per 10 gram mark as
investors and speculators created fresh positions in the precious metal on hopes that global policymakers will
undertake further policy easing measures to bolster economic growth. Further monetary easing is bullish for
gold demand as the precious metal is considered a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary stimulus.
Gold futures rose after finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations vowed speedy and
coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt turmoil.
Gold futures ended higher in the
domestic market on Tuesday on Investors were closely eying the European Central Bank policy decision on Wednesday and hoping that the
hopes that further policy easing central bank announces further policy easing measures to shield the region’s economy against the debt
may drive the demand for the turmoil. Weak economic data from the US in recent days has raised the odds for qauntative easing in the
precious metal nation. China is also likely to announce further measures to bolster growth in the world’s second largest
economy. The recent impressive run of gold comes in the wake of a stronger dollar, a sign that the precious
metal may have reasserted itself as a safe haven alongside the greenback. On the MCX, gold futures for the
June 2012 contract rose as much as 1.62 per cent to touch a day’s high of `30,150 per 10 grams and settled at
`29,837 per 10 grams, up by 0.57per cent.
Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,626.90 per ounce, up
by 0.72 per cent at 10:21AM IST.
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
MCX Copper (`/Kg)
Contract Close Open High Low PCP % Chg Volume (In Lots)
June, 2012 405.90 410.00 411.95 404.70 408.10 -0.54 129,437
August, 2012 410.95 413.20 417.00 409.80 413.00 -0.50 11,115
Copper futures ended lower in the domestic market on Tuesday amid worries that a deepening economic
downturn in Europe may crimp the demand for the base metal. Sentiment weakened after a report showed that a
combined gauge of manufacturing and services output in the Euro area shrank at the fastest pace in nearly three
years last month, underscoring the economic gloom plaguing the region and dimming the demand outlook for the
base metal. The Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output Index, a combined gauge of
Copper futures closed lower in
Manufacturing and Services activity, fell to 46 in May 2012 from 46.7 in April 2012, with a reading below 50
the domestic market on
signaling contraction in private sector output over the previous month, Markit Economics said.
Tuesday amid worries that a
deepening economic
Copper futures also fell after a report showed that retail sales in the Euro area fell 1 per cent in April 2012 from the
downturn in Europe may curb
previous month as the region’s deepening debt turmoil and record high joblessness squeezed consumer spending,
the demand for the base
dimming the demand outlook for the base metal. Moreover, ongoing worries over Europe’s debt woes and the
metal
deteriorating health of the Spanish economy signaled a bleak demand outlook for the base metal. Spain's budget
minister, Cristobal Montoro, cried for European Union aid to recapitalize the nation’s struggling lenders. On the
MCX, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 0.83 per cent at `404.70 per Kg and settled at
`405.90 per Kg, down by 0.54 per cent.
Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3370 per pound, up
by 1.47 per cent at 10:31 AM IST after the G7 nations vowed speedy and coordinated response to stem Europe’s
debt turmoil.
Today’s Economic Calendar
Date Time (IST) Economic Data Country Forecast Prior
6-06-2012 02:00 PM Construction PMI GBP 54.7
03:30 PM German Industrial Production m/m EUR -0.9%
06:00 PM Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q U.S. -0.6%
LME statistics as on June 1, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
Commodity Lead Aluminum Copper Nickel Tin Zinc
Cash Buyer 1880 1936 7363.50 16020 19325 1852
Cash Seller & Settlement 1880.50 1937 7364 16025 19330 1852.50
LME Index Value as on June 1 2012- 3,191.1*
*Last available public data on LME website
Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
Commodity Expiry PCP R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 Trend
Gold Aug,12 30011 30193 30102 30027 29936 29861 Up
Silver July,12 54442 54877 54659 54282 54064 53687 Up
Crude Oil June,12 4688 4758 4723 4691 4656 4624 Up
Copper June,12 405.9 414.7 410.3 407.5 403.1 400.2 Up
Natural Gas June,12 137.2 141.6 139.4 136.5 134.3 131.4 Down
Nickel June,12 886.5 903.2 894.8 885.1 876.6 866.8 Up
Lead June,12 105.80 107 106.4 105.85 105.25 104.7 Up
Zinc June,12 104.35 105.25 104.75 104.4 104.1 103.7 Up
Daily
Daily Commodity Watch
Abbreviations:
MCX : Multi Commodity Exchange
NCDEX : National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
PCP : Previous Closing Price
NYMEX : New York Mercantile Exchange
COMEX : Commodity Exchange
LME : London Metal Exchange
OPEC : Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
EIA : Energy Information Administration
ECB : European Central Bank
OPEC : Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
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