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Commodity Research Report 06-June-2012

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Commodity Research Report 06-June-2012 Powered By Docstoc
					            Daily Commodity Watch


                                           June 6, 2012                                               www.alankit.com
                                                                           Gold Intraday Chart
News Highlights:

 US services activity, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of the
  nation’s economy, accelerated in May 2012, raising optimism that
  the world’s largest economy is weathering the European debt
  turmoil. The Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose
  to 53.7 in May 2012 from 53.5 in April 2012, with a reading above 50
  signaling expansion in services activity over the previous month.
  Crude Oil futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday as
  robust US economic data lifted the demand outlook for the fuel.

 US crude oil inventories fell 1.8 million barrels to 384.1 million
  barrels in the week ended June 1, signaling a pickup in fuel demand
  in the world’s largest crude oil consumer, the American Petroleum        Crude oil intraday chart
  Institute said. The report also supported crude oil futures on
  Tuesday.

 Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations
  vowed speedy and coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt
  turmoil. G7 officials said that they will coordinate efforts to help
  restore the public finances of Greece and Spain on a sustainable
  platform. Crude futures also rose on optimism that a swift solution to
  Europe’s debt woes may boost fuel demand.

 Gold futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday and
  breached the `30,000 per 10 gram mark as investors and speculators
  created fresh positions in the precious metal on hopes that global
  policymakers will undertake further policy easing measures to            Copper intraday chart
  bolster economic growth.

 A combined gauge of manufacturing and services output in the Euro
  area shrank at the fastest pace in nearly three years last month,
  underscoring the economic gloom plaguing the region. The Eurozone
  PMI Composite Output Index fell to 46 in May 2012 from 46.7 in April
  2012, with a reading below 50 signaling contraction in private sector
  output over the previous month. Copper futures fell on Tuesday
  amid worries that a deepening economic downturn in Europe may
  crimp the demand for the base metal.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

 Market Overview                                                                                        Commodity Indices at MCX
                                                                                             Indices        Close                PCP           %Chg
 On June 05, 2012 (Tuesday), the domestic commodity markets closed on a positive
                                                                                          MCXCOMDEX        3650.08              3632.17         0.49
 note, after volatile trading through the trading session, as expectation of positive
                                                                                          MCXMETAL         4935.73              4918.75         0.34
 outcomes at G7 meeting lifted the market sentiment. Meanwhile, the situation in
                                                                                          MCXENERGY         3171                3148.82         0.70
 the Euro zone remained in focus as Euro zone’s retail sales declined 1 per cent in
 April, 2012 following 0.3 per cent gain in the prior month, intensifying concerns        MCXAGRI          2766.94              2752.14         0.53
 over the region. However, a stronger U.S. dollar put some pressure on industrial
 commodities, but loses offset after the finance ministers and central bank                                      Index at NCDEX
 governors from the Group of Seven nations agreed yesterday to coordinate their              Index          Close                PCP           %Chg
 response to the euro area’s sovereign-debt crisis. On Tuesday, all the four indices,       Dhaanya        2307.45              2326.54        (0.82)
 at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), settled in the positive terrain.
 MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,650.08 (up by 0.49 per cent), MCXMETAL closed at
                                                                                                            Top Gainers at MCX
 4,935.73 (up by 0.34 per cent), MCXENERGY closed at 3,171 (up by 0.70 per cent),
 while MCXAGRI closed at 2,766.94 (up by 0.53).                                           Commodity     Expiry       Close (`)      PCP (`)   % Chg
                                                                                          Mentha Oil    Sep          1375.90        1323      4
                                                                                          Mentha Oil    Aug          1349           1312.70   2.77
 MCXENERGY was the top gainer among all the indices as both crude oil and natural
                                                                                          Mentha Oil    June         1321.80        1286.60   2.74
 gas advanced in the domestic market following firm overseas cues. Natural gas
                                                                                          Mentha Oil    July         1337.30        1302.30   2.69
 gained for a second straight trading session on forecasts for warmer weather that
                                                                                          Natural gas   June         136.90         134.20    2.01
 could boost air conditioning demand. Moreover, fall in natural gas production in
 the U.S. also acted as a supportive factor for prices. The Energy Information
 Administration (EIA) reported last week that U.S. natural gas production declined by                        Top Losers at MCX
 0.4 per cent to 71.76 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in March 2012 as producers continued      Commodity     Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
 to scale back drilling in the face of low prices. It was a second monthly fall after a   Potato TRWT   Aug         995.20         1009       (1.37)
 revised 1 per cent decline in February 2012.                                             Cardamom      Aug         1265           1277.80    (1.00)
                                                                                          Potato        Aug         1177           1188.60    (0.98)
 MCXMETAL also ended with positive note as most of the base metals and precious           Potato        July        1113.60        1123.90    (0.92)
 metals climbed. Gold prices ended above 30,000 levels in the domestic bullion            Cotton        Aug         15850          15990      (0.88)
 market on speculation that the world’s policy makers will take measures to
 stimulate economic growth, reviving demand for the metal as an inflation hedge.                          Top Gainers at NCDEX
                                                                                          Commodity     Expiry      Close(`)       PCP (`)    % Chg
 Mentha oil futures were the top gainers among all the commodities on the back of         Kapas         Feb,13      933            921        1.30
 fresh long positions at the existing lower price levels amid firm spot demand from       Steel Long    June        32620          32220      1.24
 pharmaceutical industries. Mentha oil futures for September contract ended 4 per         Pepper        June        38490          38200      0.76
 cent higher at `1,375.90 per kg on MCX. Moreover, expectation of lower output in         Gur Chaku     Nov         1030.50        1023       0.73
 the major producing regions also sent the prices higher.                                 Gold          Aug         30100          29908      0.64

 On Tuesday, at MCX, the top traded commodities in terms of volume were crude oil                          Top Losers at NCDEX
 for June 2012 contract with 1,91,741 lots, Silver Micro for June 2012 contract with      Commodity     Expiry      Close (`)      PCP (`)    % Chg
 1,44,710 lots, Copper for June 2012 contract with 1,29,437 lots, Gold Petal for June     Barley        Sep         1300.50        1354       (3.95)
 2012 contract with 1,11,619 lots and Silver M for June 2012 contract with 1,00,844       Chilli        June        4498           4614       (2.51)
 lots.                                                                                    Barley        July        1239           1270.50    (2.48)
                                                                                          Turmeric      June        3384           3468       (2.42)
 At MCX, natural gas futures for June contract closed at `136.90 per mmBtu, up by         Chana         Sep         4290           4393       (2.34)
 2.01 per cent, after opening at `135.60 against the previous closing of `134.20. It
 touched an intra-day high of `138.70 till the closing.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                         Fundamental Market Overview
                                                                 MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
    Contract                 Close            Open              High       Low          PCP                  % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012                4688             4667             4727            4660            4661           0.58                  191,741
    July, 2012                4728             4710             4769            4700            4702           0.55                  18,243

                                           Crude Oil futures rose more than 0.50 per cent in the domestic market on Tuesday as robust US economic data
                                           and a drop in US crude oil stockpiles lifted the demand outlook for the fuel. Crude oil futures rose after a report
                                           showed that US services activity, which accounts for nearly 90 per cent of the nation’s economy, accelerated in
                                           May 2012, raising optimism that the world’s largest economy is weathering the European debt turmoil and
                                           boosting the demand outlook for the fuel. The Institute of Supply Management’s index of services rose to 53.7 in
     Crude oil futures ended higher        May 2012 from 53.5 in April 2012, with a reading above 50 signaling expansion in services activity over the
     in the domestic market on             previous month. Crude futures were also supported by a report that showed a drop in US crude oil stockpiles last
     Tuesday     as    robust    US        week. US crude oil inventories fell 1.8 million barrels to 384.1 million barrels in the week ended June 1, signaling
     economic data and a drop in
                                           a pickup in fuel demand in the world’s largest crude oil consumer, the American Petroleum Institute said.
     US crude oil stockpiles lifted
     the demand outlook for the
     fuel                                  Crude futures also rose on optimism that a swift solution to Europe’s debt woes may boost fuel demand.
                                           Sentiment was boosted after finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations vowed speedy
                                           and coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt turmoil, while a report said that the Eurozone bailout fund was
                                           preparing a precautionary credit line for Spain as the nation struggles to recapitalize its banks. G7 officials said
                                           that they will coordinate efforts to help restore the public finances of Greece and Spain on a sustainable
                                           platform. Investors are betting that an improving outlook in Europe may bolster fuel demand. At the MCX, crude
                                           oil futures for the June 2012 contract rose as much as 1.42 per cent at `4,727 per barrel and settled at `4,688
                                           per barrel, up by 0.58 per cent.

       Currently, crude oil futures for the July 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $84.98 per barrel, up by 0.82 per cent at 10:02 AM IST.

                                                                 MCX Gold (`/10 grams)
    Contract                 Close           Open              High        Low         PCP                     % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012               29837            29757            30150            29742          29668            0.57                   249
    August 2012              30011            29956            30119            29953          29918            0.31                  30,316

                                              Gold futures ended higher in the domestic market on Tuesday and breached the ` 30,000 per 10 gram mark as
                                              investors and speculators created fresh positions in the precious metal on hopes that global policymakers will
                                              undertake further policy easing measures to bolster economic growth. Further monetary easing is bullish for
                                              gold demand as the precious metal is considered a hedge against the inflationary risk of monetary stimulus.
                                              Gold futures rose after finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations vowed speedy and
                                              coordinated response to stem Europe’s debt turmoil.
     Gold futures ended higher in the
     domestic market on Tuesday on            Investors were closely eying the European Central Bank policy decision on Wednesday and hoping that the
     hopes that further policy easing         central bank announces further policy easing measures to shield the region’s economy against the debt
     may drive the demand for the             turmoil. Weak economic data from the US in recent days has raised the odds for qauntative easing in the
     precious metal                           nation. China is also likely to announce further measures to bolster growth in the world’s second largest
                                              economy. The recent impressive run of gold comes in the wake of a stronger dollar, a sign that the precious
                                              metal may have reasserted itself as a safe haven alongside the greenback. On the MCX, gold futures for the
                                              June 2012 contract rose as much as 1.62 per cent to touch a day’s high of `30,150 per 10 grams and settled at
                                              `29,837 per 10 grams, up by 0.57per cent.

                                              Currently, Gold futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,626.90 per ounce, up
                                              by 0.72 per cent at 10:21AM IST.
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

                                                                   MCX Copper (`/Kg)
    Contract                   Close            Open          High       Low         PCP                      % Chg                 Volume (In Lots)
    June, 2012                 405.90           410.00        411.95         404.70          408.10           -0.54                  129,437
    August, 2012               410.95           413.20        417.00         409.80          413.00           -0.50                   11,115

                                          Copper futures ended lower in the domestic market on Tuesday amid worries that a deepening economic
                                          downturn in Europe may crimp the demand for the base metal. Sentiment weakened after a report showed that a
                                          combined gauge of manufacturing and services output in the Euro area shrank at the fastest pace in nearly three
                                          years last month, underscoring the economic gloom plaguing the region and dimming the demand outlook for the
                                          base metal. The Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) Composite Output Index, a combined gauge of
     Copper futures closed lower in
                                          Manufacturing and Services activity, fell to 46 in May 2012 from 46.7 in April 2012, with a reading below 50
     the domestic market on
                                          signaling contraction in private sector output over the previous month, Markit Economics said.
     Tuesday amid worries that a
     deepening            economic
                                          Copper futures also fell after a report showed that retail sales in the Euro area fell 1 per cent in April 2012 from the
     downturn in Europe may curb
                                          previous month as the region’s deepening debt turmoil and record high joblessness squeezed consumer spending,
     the demand for the base
                                          dimming the demand outlook for the base metal. Moreover, ongoing worries over Europe’s debt woes and the
     metal
                                          deteriorating health of the Spanish economy signaled a bleak demand outlook for the base metal. Spain's budget
                                          minister, Cristobal Montoro, cried for European Union aid to recapitalize the nation’s struggling lenders. On the
                                          MCX, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract fell as much as 0.83 per cent at `404.70 per Kg and settled at
                                          `405.90 per Kg, down by 0.54 per cent.

                                          Currently, Copper futures for the June 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.3370 per pound, up
                                          by 1.47 per cent at 10:31 AM IST after the G7 nations vowed speedy and coordinated response to stem Europe’s
                                          debt turmoil.

                                                           Today’s Economic Calendar
    Date            Time (IST)                      Economic Data              Country                           Forecast                      Prior
     6-06-2012       02:00 PM                      Construction PMI                           GBP                                               54.7
                     03:30 PM              German Industrial Production m/m                   EUR                                              -0.9%
                     06:00 PM              Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q                   U.S.                                             -0.6%


                                                   LME statistics as on June 1, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
    Commodity                           Lead         Aluminum            Copper           Nickel                          Tin                   Zinc
    Cash Buyer                         1880               1936               7363.50                 16020               19325                  1852
    Cash Seller & Settlement          1880.50             1937                7364                   16025               19330                 1852.50

                                                   LME Index Value as on June 1 2012- 3,191.1*
        *Last available public data on LME website

                                                    Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
    Commodity                  Expiry             PCP         R2           R1           Pivot                           S1              S2          Trend
    Gold                       Aug,12            30011           30193             30102             30027            29936           29861             Up
    Silver                      July,12          54442           54877             54659             54282            54064           53687             Up
    Crude Oil                  June,12            4688            4758              4723              4691             4656            4624             Up
    Copper                     June,12            405.9          414.7             410.3             407.5            403.1           400.2             Up
    Natural Gas                June,12            137.2          141.6             139.4             136.5            134.3           131.4            Down
    Nickel                     June,12            886.5          903.2             894.8             885.1            876.6           866.8             Up
    Lead                       June,12           105.80           107              106.4             105.85           105.25          104.7             Up
    Zinc                       June,12           104.35          105.25            104.75            104.4            104.1           103.7             Up
         Daily
Daily Commodity Watch

  Abbreviations:
  MCX      :        Multi Commodity Exchange
  NCDEX :           National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
  PCP      :        Previous Closing Price
  NYMEX :           New York Mercantile Exchange
  COMEX :           Commodity Exchange
  LME      :        London Metal Exchange
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
  EIA      :        Energy Information Administration
  ECB      :        European Central Bank
  OPEC     :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries




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