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Dundee Solar City Study

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					Dundee Solar City Study




Professor Susan Roaf
Heriot-Watt University Edinburgh



                                   s.roaf@hw.ac.uk
THE PERFECT STORM: RISK. ENERGY AND BUILDINGS




Source: David Crichton
                             s.roaf@hw.ac.uk
Valley Forward….



         Back in The Day




     LIVING THE DREAM
The 20th Century Dream
Executive Lifestyle
Mass Housing - Developers Dream – Developer’s State
Phoenix - most rapidly growing city in the USA – 2007
The Perfect Storm: 2007
                                        Vulnerability:
                                        House ?
                                        Car ?
Hazard2:                                Community ?
•Climate Change                         Health ?
•Peak Oil                               Wealth ?
                                        Age ?
                     RISK
                     Exposure:
                  Where do you live ?
Hotter = More Energy Used + More Expensive Energy
 Retro HVAC Energy Use Analysis (over the last 50-years) for a c. 2000
 square foot Phoenix Single Family House -- Increase energy use is due to
 Phoenix’s increasing average summer minimum low temperatures.

           Source: Harvey Bryan & ASU’s SMART Program
Single Person                   VERRADDO 2007                       VERRADO 2020
2020 = x 2 energy prices
Without water trucking prices   per month        per year           per month         per year
Mortgage                               2000                 24000           2800                  33600
Property Tax                            500                  6000               500                6000
water + sewer                               80                960               160                1920
Energy                                  300                  3600               600                7200
Car purchase                            300                  3600               300                3600
Gas / petrol                            250                  3000               500                6000
House insurance                         100                  1200               100                1200
Car insurance                           100                  1200               100                1200
Telephone                               100                  1200               100                1200
Cable                                       50                600                50                 600
Health Insurance                        200                  2400               200                2400
Extras                                  100                  1200               100                1200
Groceries                               300                  3600               300                3600
Credit Cards                            200                  2400               200                2400
                                       4580                 54960           6010                  72120
& 30% TAX                                                   16488                                 21636
ANNUAL SALARY                                          $71,488                                   $93,756
 One in every 17
    Arizona
households got a
foreclosure filing
    in 2010
At the 2010 census there
were 261,000 vacant
homes in the Phoenix
metro area, Maricopa Co
EXPOSURE: THE CLIMATE CHANGE
  HOW FAST IS IT HAPPENING ?

                                          60C


                                           40 C
                    30C
              20C                         20C
        10C
                                          00C




                         2010 2045 2065
                     www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf
    Rising Temperatures - EXACERBATING PROBLEMS

<400ppm                                                        >750ppm
                                                         Source: Sue Roaf
      global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial times)
  0°C        1°C        2°C        3°C         4°C          5°C

        increasingly fail to provide protection against more extreme climate
Buildings
        Increase in building resilience               High energy solutions unaffordable


      Non-functional communities begin to disintegrate
Communities                                                                    Tribal
       Functional Communities Resilient communities


       Systemic failures, temporary collapses            Permanent Collapse

 Building Infrastructure
       Infra-structures fortified, new paradigms developed Local resilient fortified systems

       Inequality in societies magnified: system capacity is exceeded    Inequality in
System capacity                                                          resources causes
      Capacity planning and resource allocation systematised             social breakdown
Europe – July/August 2003 - 50,000 people dies in Heatwave




   Buildings
    Failed
Dysfunctional Societies
Dark Cities: Infrastructures fail
Dangerous Societies
Disaffected Societies: LONDON
Brace for Occupy Vancouver, downtown businesses warned
07/10/2011 9:53:48 PM
http://news.sympatico.cbc.ca/business/brace_for_occupy_vancouver_downtown_businesses_warned/45111b4b
Ideal Homes built the first zero energy home in the country priced under $200,000. The modest one-story,
three-bedroom, two bathroom home produces as much energy as it consumes in a year, achieving net zero
  energy consumption. Ideal Homes of Norman, Okla., winner of the 2006 National Housing Quality Gold
     Award, prides itself on its commitment to building high-performance homes. See: www.ideal-
                                             homes.com/




                                          Built smaller houses run on solar
POWERED BY SOLAR TOWERS




      EnviroMission's Solar Tower power station development planned for Arizona.
                                            SOLAR                                              SOLAR
Single Person      GARFIELD 2007            GARFIELD 2020              VERRADDO 2007           VERRADO 2020

                                            per
                   per month   per year     month       per year       per month   per year    per month   per year

Mortgage                1400    14400.00     2000.00        24000           2000    24000.00     2800.00      33600

Property Tax             500     6000.00      500.00         6000            500     6000.00      500.00       6000

water + sewer             80       960.00     160.00         1920             80      960.00      160.00       1920

Energy                   200     2400.00            0              0         300     3600.00      600.00       7200

Car purchase             300     3600.00      300.00         3600            300     3600.00      300.00       3600

Gas / petrol             100     1200.00            0        2400            250     3000.00      500.00       6000

House insurance          100     1200.00      100.00         1200            100     1200.00      100.00       1200

Car insurance            100     1200.00      100.00         1200            100     1200.00      100.00       1200

Telephone                100     1200.00      100.00         1200            100     1200.00      100.00       1200

Cable                     50       600.00      50.00          600             50      600.00       50.00        600

Health Insurance         200     2400.00      200.00         2400            200     2400.00      200.00       2400

Extras                   100     1200.00      100.00         1200            100     1200.00      100.00       1200

Groceries                300     3600.00      300.00         3600            300     3600.00      300.00       3600

Credit Cards             200     2400.00      200.00         2400            200     2400.00      200.00       2400

                        3730    42360.00     4710.00        56520           4580    54960.00     6010.00      72120

& 30% TAX                       12708.00                    16956                   16488.00                  21636

                                                         ($73,476)                                         ($93756)
ANNUAL SALARY                  $55068.00                   $52468                  $71488.00                 $64888
And Suburbs




              26
Built in Solar Powered Factories
In a Solar Powered City
THE SOLAR CITIES MOVEMENT
  1st Solar Cities Daegu Congress 2004
2004 – 1st ISCI Congress Daegu, Korea
           ISCI Participating Cities: 2004

                                      Goteborg                             Beijing
                     The Hague
                                                           Copenhagen

                                                                                         Sapporo
                                         Gelsenkirchen


                         Oxford
                                                             Dezhou                     Yokohama
     Portland                          Alessandria


                                                             Qingdao
                                                                                        Daegu
Santa Monica                              Linz
                     Barcelona
                                                         Hangzhou                    Gwangju

                                      Freiburg

       Minneapolis
                                                               Kaohsiung




                                                              Adelaide
                          Cape Town
               DUNDEE SCOTTISH SOLAR CITY




 New Factories / Products / Economic Stimulus / Solar Icons / Laboratories




SOLAR CITIES – A POWERFUL LIVING DREAM AND REALITY
                 Fuel Poverty in Dundee




The map and all the data in this section was
taken from the Scottish Index of Multiple
Deprivation (SIMD) official website. Scotland
has 32.5% of homes in Fuel Poverty – in
Dundee this is higher.
   DUNDEE STUDY AREA STATISTICS




Of the 88 datazones considered, 7 fall within the 5% most
deprived in Scotland, 10 within the 5-10%, 8 within the 10-15%, 9
within the 15-20% and 54 within the rest (20-100%).
         Roofray software was used




This allows the user to draw the roof objection and orientation of
each building on the Google map - then it calculates the area of
the roof.
  methodology used for the available roof area

• Selection of all the roof area information gathered by
  the Roofray software
• Gain of solar radiation data from METEONORM
  software for each orientation angle with an accuracy
  of 1o
• Calculation of the solar energy available from each
  building and aggregation of the total solar estimation
• Input of all the factors* for the calculation of the total
  electricity output from the PVs
                               RESULTS
    Total roof area estimated:           88,313 m2
    Total solar radiation
    available for harvesting:            97,914,848 kWh
    Total electricity output from
    the PVs using the 9.58%
    factor:                       9,380,242 kWh
    Estimated PV power
    capacity:                     8.5 MWp

* The factors which were included are:
•85% for further shading effects
•85% for roof unsuitability[1]
•15% as a typical commercial PV panel
•95% for inverter efficiency and 93% for transmission losses
                         THE BENEFITS
• The calculated 9,380,242 kWh from the PVs can fully cover the needs of
  about 2,000 households

• The roof unsuitability can become usable if BESPOKE solar thermal
  collectors of various shapes are used. This measure can bring about
  4,000,000 kWh of solar hot water

• Allocation of solar energy to most fuel poor 2,000 households, could be
  made according to their deprivation status

• A Solar Employment Plan could calculate the eoncomic job benefits

• Plenty more available roof area for solar integration in the whole city
  unconsidered, especially with commercial and municipal buildings
   SOLAR CITY DUNDEE: COSTS
•For c. £10 million you could half the energy use in the study area homes with
efficiency - 1500 - 2000 households – 12.5% of domestic electricity saved

•For £22 million you could put PVs on the homes of up to 60,000 people = 25%

•In so doing you would take them out of Fuel Poverty for ever

•Double those figures (£c. 70 million ) and no one in Dundee would ever be
Fuel Poor again.

•What is the cost of that to the National Health service, Social Services and the
benefit in terms of Quality of Life of Dundonians ?


      Solar Cities - every city should be one
 Valley Forward….



          Back in Reality




RE-ENGINEERING THE DREAM
ENABLING NEW VISIONS: NEXT GENERATION RESEARCH
  NEDO’s PV     Now in Japan,
   Clusters     50 000 PV houses installed in 2005 alone
   Project
                230 000 PV houses in 2004
  City of Ota
                      1.13 GW in Total !! (2004 end)
 ~1km×0.5km
                2010 in Japan, … 4.82 GW
  ~550 PVs
                 (around 1 million roofs )
                   And then 100GW toward PV2030 !!




                                                       41
        MICRO-GRIDS: Autonomy-Enhanced, Community-base
          PV Cluster Concept by introducing Active Control

                                             PV                     PV
                                              PV                     PV
                   Less                         PV      Series         PV       Series
                   Interactive                    PV Power Device            Power Device    PV
                                                   PV                                         PV
                                                     PV                                         PV
                     Inter-Utility   Community                  Inter-Feeder
                     Connector       Substation                 Router (LPC)        Shunt
                      (Router)                    PV                     PV
                                                                          PV     Power Device
External Utility




                                                   PV
                                                     PV       Series        PV
                             AC Storage           PV       Power Device              PV
                               Device              PV                                 PV
                                                                                        PV
                                                     PV
                                                                      Inter-Feeder
                                           100% PV Clusters
                                                     Shunt            Router (LPC)
                                             PV                     PV                PV
                      Autonomy                PV     Power Device    PV                PV
                                                PV                     PV                PV
                      Enhanced                     PV                                PV
                                                                           PV
                                                    PV                      PV        PV
                         Community                    PV    AC Storage        PV        PV
                            Grids                             Device
                                                                                                     42
GETTING THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF THE NEW SYSTEM RIGHT
       SHELTER / COMFORT IS A DYNAMIC PROCESS
       RESULTING FROM INTERACTION BETWEEN :

                    People




                  Energy

Climate                              Buildings
20th CENTURY – UNDEVELOPED - SIMPLISTIC – INFLEXIBLE –
    UNEVOLVING – INCREASINGLY OBSOLETE RESPONSE




                  throwing energy away



                 Paradigm Shifting
MATURE UNDERSTANDING: COMFORT IS A DYNAMIC PROCESS
 AN ADAPTIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN COMPLEX SYSTEMS




                Appropriate Conserving




         Understanding the Complex Systems
                               New Energy Paradigms: CASCADES
primary energy
                               Exploiting Energy TYPE / QUALITY
                                  into the air and water
                                     waste heat
                 power
                 plant
                                   heavy
                                  industry
                 electricity




                                  storage




                                horticulture



                                 hotel and
                                 catering



                                   offices



                                 dwellings                               Dr. Andy van den Dobbelsteen
                                                                         Faculty of Architecture, Climate Design &
                                                                         Sustainability, Technical University, Delft
                                 agriculture


                                                           waste
CURRENT SYSTEM                                    into the environment
                   Energy TYPE / QUALITY
                  Cascading energy systems
primary energy




                         power         cascade of waste heat
                         plant
                                              heavy
                                             industry
                                                                 storage
                         electricity




                                                               horticulture
                 waste




                                                                              hotel and
                                                                              catering



                                                                               offices



                                                                              dwellings

                                                                                          agriculture
                                                               waste

       SUSTAINABLE, LOW-EX SYSTEM
     Research

     STRATEGY - COMPLEX SCIENCE:

                                              Observer

                               controls                                                  controls
                                                          controls     controls


     WindTurbineSimulator                                                                                       House
                                  controls     controls
                                                               SunSimulator         TemperatureSimulator

               depends
                                                          depends
                                                                                                    controls
                                                                                                    controls
                                                                               depends   depends

               WindSimulator        depends    Timer                                                 controls


                                                                                  PVSimulator
                                                                     depends




                                                                                   HouseSchedule
48
                                  Sovacool, B. (2008). Valuing the
                                  greenhouse gas emissions from nuclear
                                  power: A critical survey. Energy Policy,
                                  36(8), 2950-2963.
                                  doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2008.04.017



                                  Sovacool’s study also states that the figure
                                  for nuclear is largely dependant upon
                                  lifetime of plants and their capacity
                                  factors.

                                  I would also say that this figure of
                                  66gCO2e/kWh is higher than most I have
                                  seen and is an average across his META
                                  analysis. It still does, however, represent a
                                  good average for international
                                  development and of the spread of
                                  lifetimes and reactor types that are
                                  deployed globally at present.

                                  For more on carbon accounting see:
                                  www.icarb.org & www.icarbconference.org

Getting the Complex Maths RIGHT
                           This is

                             it




Fossil fuel and the nuclear super tanker –      security risk
manned by six men – profit for the few - serviced by experts
                  stops when the fuel runs out ..
A sailing ship - harvesting infinite ambient
energy - work for many – energy security




                    A self-repairing system

				
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