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Crime Waves and the Need for Multi- Agency Report Cards of Early Indicators of Community Crime Rolf Loeber University of Pittsburgh/ Free University, Amsterdam, Netherlands Key questions * Is it possible to predict crime waves? * What are community needs for indicators of future crime waves? * What would be the role of interagency collaboration in this? UCR Murder and Robbery Rates 12 Rate per 100,000 Population 10 Robbery/25 8 Murder 6 4 2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Homicide rate dramatically decreased in Europe from the middle ages on Persons killed per total population of 1000 100,000 (logarithmic scale) 100 Local Estimates: Europe National Series: Europe USA-National Series 10 Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe) 1 0.1 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Source: Eisner, 2004 Year The current level of homicide in the U.S. is about where Europe was three centuries ago. 1000 Persons killed per total population of 100,000 100 Local Estimates: Europe National Series: Europe USA-National Series 10 Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe) 1 0.1 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Source: Eisner, 2004 Year Some hypotheses concerning the origins of community crime trends: • Community crime trends are not a function of chance. • Community crime trends are sum of age-crime curves of successive age cohorts. • Crime trends are most influenced by peak offending age of juveniles, and by high-rate offenders. • Peak offending age may vary. • Number of high-rate offenders may vary from age cohort to age cohort. Sample Differences in Reported Violence 12 Age crime Age crime curve. curve. Oldest Youngest sample 10 sample 8 Percentage 6 4 2 0 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 7 9 Age Youngest sample Oldest sample Poly. (Youngest sample) What are the best predictors of violence? Some results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study Proportion of Boys Committing Violent Offenses for Different Levels of Risk (based on 11 risk factors out of 51 significant bivariate risk factors) Percentage Commiting Violence 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Base 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+ Rate Number of Violence Risk Factors Source: Loeber et al., 2005 Predictors of Violence and Agency/Department Which Can Record Information Predictors: Agency/Department • Low SES Census • Family on welfare Census • Bad neighborhood Census • Low school motivation Education • Truancy Education • High parental stress ? • Delinquency before 10 Justice • Cruel to people Health and Human Services • Depressed mood Health and Human Services • Physical aggression Health and Human Services • Callous/unemotional Health and Human Services Source: Loeber et al., 2005 Predictors of Differences in Violence in Different Cohorts and Agency Which Can Record Information Predictor Agency/Department • Held back in school Education • Gun carrying Justice • Gang membership Justice • Drug dealing Justice/Drug Control • Hard drug use Justice/Drug Control • Neighborhood % unemployed Census • Neighborhood median household size Census • Period effects ? Source: Fabio, Loeber et al., 2006 Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (1) Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05) Example of useful data on risk factors (Pennsylvania) (2) Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05) A visual representation of a city’s total aggregated risk factors. Neighborhood #2 Insuff icie nt numbe r of stude nt s in this are a. No stude nt s in this a re a. Neighborhood #1 Neighborhood #3 John A. Pollard, Ph.D. Developmental Research and Programs Do we have the right information? (1) Examples of risk factor surveys and surveys of general well-being: • The Healthy Youth! survey, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). • The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, sponsored by the CDC, currently does not have data for Pittsburgh. • The Casey Foundation Kids Count provides data for Pennsylvania, but not more detailed. Do we have the right information? (2) • Indicators of School Crime and Safety, sponsored by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is not available on the neighborhood level. • Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency and Youth Gang Involvement (National Youth Gang Center, 2005). TIME FOR CHANGE? (1) A major choice to make: • Continue with mostly reactive systems of intervention that address juvenile delinquency? • Expand proactive systems of intervention? TIME FOR CHANGE? (2) • Put together Council working group to explore early marker systems and report on available data sources, barriers and feasibility issues. • Explore options to tie in with existing programs (e.g., Helping America’s Youth initiative). • Council’s early marker approaches could be used to support state and county development of local early marker systems.
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