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Juvenile Violence in the City and the Nation

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Juvenile Violence in the City and the Nation Powered By Docstoc
					 Crime Waves and the Need for Multi-
Agency Report Cards of Early Indicators
        of Community Crime


               Rolf Loeber
      University of Pittsburgh/ Free
   University, Amsterdam, Netherlands
             Key questions

* Is it possible to predict crime waves?

* What are community needs for indicators of
future crime waves?

* What would be the role of interagency
collaboration in this?
                                              UCR Murder and Robbery Rates

                              12
Rate per 100,000 Population




                              10
                                                                                      Robbery/25

                               8
                                                                           Murder

                               6


                               4


                               2


                               0
                               1970   1975   1980     1985          1990            1995       2000   2005
                                                             Year
          Homicide rate dramatically decreased
           in Europe from the middle ages on
Persons killed per total population of



                                         1000
100,000 (logarithmic scale)




                                          100
                                                                                                                  Local Estimates: Europe
                                                                                                                  National Series: Europe
                                                                                                                  USA-National Series
                                           10                                                                     Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)




                                            1




                                          0.1
                                            1100   1200   1300   1400   1500   1600   1700   1800   1900   2000


 Source: Eisner, 2004                                                     Year
        The current level of homicide in the U.S. is
       about where Europe was three centuries ago.
                           1000
Persons killed per total
population of 100,000




                            100
                                                                                                    Local Estimates: Europe
                                                                                                    National Series: Europe
                                                                                                    USA-National Series
                             10                                                                     Expon. (Local Estimates: Europe)




                              1




                            0.1
                              1100   1200   1300   1400   1500   1600   1700   1800   1900   2000


 Source: Eisner, 2004                                       Year
 Some hypotheses concerning the
origins of community crime trends:
• Community crime trends are not a function of
  chance.
• Community crime trends are sum of age-crime
  curves of successive age cohorts.
• Crime trends are most influenced by peak
  offending age of juveniles, and by high-rate
  offenders.
• Peak offending age may vary.
• Number of high-rate offenders may vary from age
  cohort to age cohort.
Sample Differences in Reported Violence
             12       Age crime                         Age crime
                      curve.                            curve. Oldest
                      Youngest                          sample
             10
                      sample
              8
Percentage




              6

              4

              2

              0
                      11

                           13

                                  15

                                       17

                                             19

                                                  21

                                                       23

                                                             25
              7

                  9




                                       Age        Youngest sample
                                                  Oldest sample
                                                  Poly. (Youngest sample)
What are the best predictors of
          violence?

Some results from the Pittsburgh Youth Study
                                Proportion of Boys Committing Violent
                                 Offenses for Different Levels of Risk
                                 (based on 11 risk factors out of 51 significant bivariate risk factors)
Percentage Commiting Violence




                                100%

                                75%

                                50%

                                25%

                                 0%
                                       Base    0     1       2    3     4     5     6       7      8     9+
                                       Rate
                                                         Number of Violence Risk Factors
                                                                                        Source: Loeber et al., 2005
Predictors of Violence and Agency/Department
        Which Can Record Information
Predictors:                     Agency/Department
• Low SES                       Census
• Family on welfare             Census
• Bad neighborhood              Census
• Low school motivation         Education
• Truancy                       Education
• High parental stress          ?
• Delinquency before 10         Justice
• Cruel to people               Health and Human Services
• Depressed mood                Health and Human Services
• Physical aggression           Health and Human Services
• Callous/unemotional           Health and Human Services
  Source: Loeber et al., 2005
    Predictors of Differences in Violence in
   Different Cohorts and Agency Which Can
              Record Information
Predictor                              Agency/Department
• Held back in school                  Education
• Gun carrying                         Justice
• Gang membership                      Justice
• Drug dealing                         Justice/Drug Control
• Hard drug use                        Justice/Drug Control
• Neighborhood % unemployed            Census
• Neighborhood median household size   Census
• Period effects                       ?


Source: Fabio, Loeber et al., 2006
    Example of useful data on risk
      factors (Pennsylvania) (1)




Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)
    Example of useful data on risk
      factors (Pennsylvania) (2)




Source: Casey Foundation Kids Count (accessed 5-8-05)
A visual representation of a city’s total
       aggregated risk factors.
                                                        Neighborhood #2


                         Insuff icie nt numbe r of
                          stude nt s in this are a.




       No stude nt s
       in this a re a.




 Neighborhood #1             Neighborhood #3




                                               John A. Pollard, Ph.D. Developmental Research and Programs
         Do we have the right
          information? (1)
Examples of risk factor surveys and surveys of
  general well-being:
• The Healthy Youth! survey, from the Centers for
  Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
• The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System,
  sponsored by the CDC, currently does not have
  data for Pittsburgh.
• The Casey Foundation Kids Count provides data
  for Pennsylvania, but not more detailed.
         Do we have the right
          information? (2)

• Indicators of School Crime and Safety, sponsored
  by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, is not available
  on the neighborhood level.
• Risk Factors for Juvenile Delinquency and Youth
  Gang Involvement (National Youth Gang Center,
  2005).
   TIME FOR CHANGE? (1)


A major choice to make:
• Continue with mostly reactive systems of
  intervention that address juvenile
  delinquency?
• Expand proactive systems of intervention?
     TIME FOR CHANGE? (2)
• Put together Council working group to explore
  early marker systems and report on available data
  sources, barriers and feasibility issues.
• Explore options to tie in with existing programs
  (e.g., Helping America’s Youth initiative).
• Council’s early marker approaches could be used
  to support state and county development of local
  early marker systems.

				
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