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Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012

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Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012 Powered By Docstoc
					Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Published : May 2012                No. of Pages : 96               Price: US$117




The operational environment for drugmakers in Pakistan has worsened over the past year, partly as a
result of the dissolution of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the subsequent decentralisation of drug
regulation. The recent drug contamination scandal in Punjab has renewed calls for the formation of an
independent, centralised drug authority. Unless the matter is addressed adequately, multinational
drugmakers will continue to struggle with cumbersome bureaucracy, which only serves to compound
numerous unresolved existing intellectual property (IP) and market access issues.
Headline Expenditure Projections ��     Pharmaceuticals: PKR171.20bn (US$1.98bn) in 2011 to
PRK188.60bn (US$2.05bn) in 2012; +10.2% in local currency terms and +3.4% in US dollar terms.
Forecasts lowered since Q212 on account of macroeconomic expectations.

Healthcare: PKR456.48bn (US$5.29bn) in 2011 to PKR516.40bn (US$5.61bn) in 2012; +13.1% in local
currency terms and +6.2% in US dollar terms. Forecasts lowered since Q212 on account of
macroeconomic expectations.
Medical devices: PKR35.14bn (US$407mn) in 2011 to PKR40.52bn (US$440mn) in 2012; +15.3% in local
currency terms and +8.2% in US dollar terms. Forecasts lowered since Q212 on account of
macroeconomic expectations.
Risk/Reward Ratings: In BMI's Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q312, Pakistan ranks in an
improved 15th position, out of the 18 markets in the regional matrix, despite receiving the same score as
in the previous quarter. However, Pakistan still ranks below the regional averages for both composite risk
and reward figures, in spite of its large and growing population.
Key Trends & Developments ��       Already suffering from the government’s move to decentralise regulatory
powers to provincial authorities that subsequently caused approval delays, the local industry has been
further damaged by the recent scandal, with over 170 patients dying as a result of consumption of
contaminated angina drug Isotab (isosorbide 5-mononitrate) manufactured by domestic company Efroze.

The tragedy is also expected to hurt the country's already restricted export capabilities.
In February 2012, Pharma Bureau, a representative body of multinational pharmaceutical companies
operating in the country, proposed that a new centralised Drug Regulatory Authority (DRA) is created at a
federal level. Multinationals, critical of the 2011 devolution of pharmaceutical regulatory powers to
provinces, are calling for a DRA that has a strong set-up for provincial monitoring to ensure the integrity of
pharmaceutical producers and the products. The DRA should also regulate substitute, homoeopathic and
all other imported medicines that are not under any control in the country, according to Pharma Bureau
executive director Sadia Moazam.

Leaders of Pakistan's pharmaceutical industry have condemned the cabinet's recent unanimous decision
to grant Most Favoured Nation (MFN) trading status to India. While the decision will benefit Indian trade to
Pakistan, including the export of medicines - ultimately enforcing competitive pressure on the local
pharmaceutical industry, BMI believes the agreement will be of significant benefit to patients, improving
their access to affordable medicines.

BMI Economic View: Headline consumer price inflation (CPI) ticked up for the second straight month in
January 2012, to 11.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), from 10.1% in the preceding month, posing upside risk on
our end-FY2011/12 (July-June) CPI forecast of 9.0%. Core inflation similarly ticked higher for the second
consecutive month, coming in at 10.6% y-o-y in February 2012 (up from 10.2% in January), mainly due to
a rise in food and transport inflation to 10.6% y-o-y (from 9.3%) and 18.8% (from 14.8%) respectively.
Despite the latest figures, we continue to expect disinflation, given the ongoing weakness in money
supply growth, although downward pressure on consumer spending will remain in play, against the
backdrop of the still-faltering Pakistani economy.
BMI Political View: We believe that one of the key global risks this year is the potential failure of the
Pakistani state, brought about by a possible balance of payments crisis that would threaten to expose and
destabilise the country's already fragile political leadership. While the impact of such a scenario on the
global economy would be limited, it would almost certainly have dire consequences for regional - and
perhaps global - security.

Pakistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Q3 2012

Table of Content

SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Pharmaceutical Industry SWOT .. 7
Pakistan Political SWOT ... 8
Pakistan Economic SWOT . 9
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 10
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings . 11
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 11
Rewards ... 12
Risks . 13
Pakistan – Market Summary . 14
Regulatory Regime 15
Regulatory Developments 16
Intellectual Property Regime ... 17
IP Shortcomings ... 18
Pricing Regime 19
Reimbursement Regime 20
Industry Trends And Developments 22
Epidemiology ... 22
Non Communicable Diseases ... 23
Communicable Diseases .. 24
Public Health Developments 25
Healthcare System ... 25
Healthcare Insurance ... 27
Research And Development . 27
Clinical Trials .. 29
Medical Devices ... 29
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 30
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast . 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 31
Healthcare Market Forecast 33
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 34
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016. 34
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 35
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic ... 36
Prescription Drug Market Forecast . 39
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 40
Patented Drug Market Forecast .. 41
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 ... 42
Generic Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 44
OTC Medicine Market Forecast .. 45
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 .. 46
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast ... 47
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 .. 49
Medical Device Market Forecast . 50
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 ... 51
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 52
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 53
Competitive Landscape 55
Pharmaceutical Sector . 55
Barriers To Investment 56
Investment Opportunities . 57
Table: 2008 Financial Snapshot Of Pakistani Drugmakers Listed On The Karachi Stock Exchange
(US$mn) ... 57
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry .. 58
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 60
Recent Pharmaceutical Sector Developments .. 60
Pharmaceutical Distribution Sector . 62
Company Monitor .. 63
Local Manufacturers . 63
Searle Pakistan 63
Hilton Pharma . 65
Efroze Chemical Industries .. 67
Ferozsons Laboratories ... 69
Getz Pharma 71
Pacific Pharmaceuticals .. 73
Leading Multinational Manufacturers .. 75
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) ... 75
Pfizer 78
Abbott Laboratories . 80
Novartis ... 82
Sanofi-Aventis .. 84
Demographic Outlook ... 86
PAKISTAN - Population By Age Group ... 87
PAKISTAN - Population By Age Group ... 88
PAKISTAN - Key Population Ratios 89
PAKISTAN - Rural and Urban Population .. 89
Glossary . 90
BMI Methodology ... 92
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 92
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings . 93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 93
Ratings Overview . 93
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 94
Weighting . 95
Table: Weighting Of Components 95
Sources 95
Table: Asia Pacific Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 11
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 31
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 . 34
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016. 34
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 . 35
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 40
  Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 . 42
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 44
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 46
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 . 49
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 . 51
Table: 2008 Financial Snapshot Of Pakistani Drugmakers Listed On The Karachi Stock Exchange
(US$mn) . 57
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . 94
Table: Weighting Of Components . 95

				
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Description: The operational environment for drugmakers in Pakistan has worsened over the past year, partly as a result of the dissolution of the Ministry of Health (MoH) and the subsequent decentralisation of drug regulation. The recent drug contamination scandal in Punjab has renewed calls for the formation of an independent, centralised drug authority. Unless the matter is addressed adequately, multinational