Aging Aircraft and Obsolete Avionics by yurtgc548


									Aging Aircraft and Obsolete

       Chapter Summit 2011
            Group 1B
        Topic Leader: Kenneth Bandelier
                 Executive Summary:
• Evaluate material integrity of airframes with current flight status, safety guidelines,
   and project future needs of airframes and avionics.

• It must be recognized that the compliance for regulations for safety are the primary
   impetus that drives avionics development and adoption. Therefore, decisions
   regarding the selection of cost effective avionics solutions that will provide adequate
   regulatory and safety compliance longevity need to be considered in the context of
   the aircraft it is to be used.

      Leasing avionics was determined to be the overall best solution. This applies most
       conclusively with respect to current airframes.
      For UAVs and spacecraft, it may be more cost effective to utilize COTS technology
       specifically since the regulatory landscape is not as well defined.
      Increased finance pressure on avionics users and regulatory bodies in the near term could
       favor a solution that is more heavily weighted towards cost reductions which would favor a
       strategy like COTS based avionics.
      All of these strategies have been used successfully to some degree by companies involved
       in the avionics industry in certain market segments.
Aerospace Industry Worldwide
 Global Aerospace and Defense Projections

 • U.S. aerospace industry shipments in 2010 were
   valued at $171 billion.
         Important Market Segments
1.   Commercial Transport
   •    Large Aircraft – Passenger / Air Freight
   •    Regional / Business Jets
   •    Rotorcraft
2.   Military
   •    Transport
   •    War Fighters
3.   Space & Sub-orbital
     •      Satellite Delivery
     •      Space Exploration / Tourism
4.       UAVs
     •      Military / Government Agency
     •      Research
5.       General Aviation
     •      Small / Personal aircraft
        Typical Avionics Cost
 For B787 – Avionics cost upwards of $20 million
Typical Age of Airframe & Avionics
Not uncommon for service life of 20+ years
• Depends on craft usage
• Must continue to comply with
regulatory / safety requirements
• Cost of maintainability a factor
1. Establish cost reduction option for
   implementation of avionics and navigational
2. Evaluate suitability of regulations governing
   UAVs, spacecraft, and current airframes.
3. Consider leased INS or other NAV equipment
   that plugs and plays.
4. Make the right Nav-Aid and collision avoidance
   decisions today for flight safety tomorrow.
  Cost Reduction Strategies

1. Reduce number of dedicated discrete avionics with
   integrated avionics performing multiple functions.
2. Re-use older avionics designs with minor updates to
   accommodate new aircraft requirements.
3. Replace older avionics designs with avionics based
   upon newer COTS technology.
4. Leasing avionics for aircraft.
            Cost Reduction Analysis
1. Integrated multi-purpose Avionics
     The GLU-925 Multi-Mode Receiver (MMR) is the first certified example
       of an integrated navigational system that incorporates signals from
       multiple types of navigational and landing systems; including GPS
       [WAAS and LAAS], GNSS, VOR, MLS, and ILS while integrating them
       into a single unit.
     Assumed cost reduction of integrated unit
        •   Avionics with one primary function (VOR, ILS, etc.) cost ~ $20,000 to
            $60,000 USD versus integrated avionics (MMR) cost ~ $70,000 USD
        •   Avionics spare pool for 1 MMR versus multiple discrete avionics savings
            cost ~ $100,000 USD
        •   Maintenance costs savings generated from not supporting multiple avionics
            with dedicated test bench and specialized technician ~ $150,000 USD
     Assumed Challenges
        •   Integrated avionics failure impacts multiple aircraft functions reliability
        •   Avionics design complexity increased
            Cost Reduction Analysis
2.    Re-use existing avionics with minor updates
        Assumed cost reduction of minor updates
        •   Avionics already working; minimal updating for new desired
            aircraft compatibility / features
        •   Established maintenance knowledge and equipment readily
        Assumed Challenges
        •   Ability to add newer technologies limited
        •   Obsolescence a concern with older avionics designs

     Honeywell providing updated Quantum Line
     avionics for Boeing’s new 787 aircraft.
         Cost Reduction Analysis
3.    Using newer COTS technology
         Assumed cost reduction for COTS
         •   Components have broad user base and therefore lower costs
         •   Initial development costs for technology paid for by other
             commercial interests of consumer industry
         •   Plentiful and cheap replacement parts for maintenance
         Assumed challenges
         •   Susceptible to obsolescence due to abrupt changes in consumer
             preferences for new or different technology
         •   Reliability and redundancy of COTS technology not up to
             aerospace / military requirements

                            Avionics Full-Duplex Switched
                            Ethernet (AFDX) is based on
                            IEEE 802.3 Ethernet technology
                            and utilizes commercial off-the-
                            shelf (COTS) components.
              Cost Reduction Analysis
4.   Leasing avionics for aircraft
             Assumed cost reduction of leasing
          •       Leasing is a fraction of cost of owning avionics outright
          •       OEMs cover repairs of avionics
          •       Need for owning avionics spares can be eliminated
          •       Greater cost predictability
             Assumed challenges
          •       Lengthy contract periods
          •       Limited flexibility to alter avionics after lease initiated

         An extension of leasing is the “power by
         the hour” concept whereby customers
         are billed at a predetermined rate per
         flight hour.
          Suitability of Regulations
•   Regulations issued through local aviation authorities such as FAA, CAAC,
    EASA, etc.
•   Regulations crafted to date based upon empirical results of aviation industry
    over several decades.
•   Regulations rely upon international cooperation and agreement fostered by
    standards bodies such as ICAO and ARINC.
                     Regulation Analysis
•   For UAVs….
      Regulations not currently sufficient; Military needs were initially the main focus not civilian aviation
         concerns but now trying to adopt civilian regulations.
      Operationally, UAVs typically operate in different airspace than civilian aircraft.
      Avionics are currently not well suited for UAVs and have to be replaced with avionics designed
         specifically for UAV needs.
•   For spacecraft….
      Industry dominated by government entities (DoD, NASA, etc.) but FAA is gearing up for expected
         commercial space launches in near future.
      FAA initiative to partner with NASA and DoD for various projects to support the integration of
         commercial space transportation operations in the National Airspace System to be completed by
         June 30, 2011.
      FAA initiative to develop and implement strategies to enable safe commercial space flight
         operations that involve on-board crew, and other space flight participants to be completed August
         31, 2011.
•   For current airframes….
      Regulatory entities like the FAA have more than 50 years experience crafting regulations.
      Aviation safety continues to improve even as aviation system capacity and complexity continue to
      FAA implementing ambitious agenda with the implementation of NextGen air transportation system.
      FAA and other regulatory bodies in danger of budget cuts due to government struggles with
         sagging worldwide economy.
                 Overall Metric Evaluation
                                                    Avoid Obsolescence          Cost              Regulatory Approval   Totals
                                                       (weighted 15%)       (weighted 25%)          (weighted 60%)
1. Integrated multi-purpose Avionics                         4                    4                       4               4
2. Re-use existing avionics with minor updates               1                    4                       4              3.55
3. Replacing with COTS technology                            4                    5                       3              3.65
4. Leasing avionics                                          2                    3                       5              4.05
                                                    NOTE: Scale 1 to 5 with 5 being most desirable

                                                                         Regulatory Suitability

1. UAVs                                                                            3
2. Spacecraft                                                                      2
3. Current Airframes                                                               5

                                  Best Overall =
                               Best in category =

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