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EU beef and veal market A brief overview and some statistical data_3_

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					Review of the situation on the
  EU Beef and Veal Market
 "Single CMO" Management Committee
           17 February 2011
                                Beef Meat Production - in Heads
                                                                                Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

 HEADS         EU 15      EU 25      EU 27   + 10 %                                                                                                                                                                       + 10 %
                                                                                      +8,1%
Jan-Nov                EU 10       EU 2                                                                           EU : + 0,6%
                                                                                                                                                                             +6,5%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 +6,1%
              -0,9%       -0,6%      -0,6%            +5,3%
                                                                                                                                   +4,7%
     Bulls
                       +1,9%      -6,9%
                                                                  +2,4%                             +2,3%

              +4,3%       +4,3%      +4,3%
    Steers                                                                                                +0,1%                                          -0,1%
                       +19,0%     -14,0%      0%                                                                                                                                                                           0%
                                                                        -0,3%
                                                                                                                                   -3,6%                                              -0,8%
                                                                                                                                                                 -1,2%
              -0,2%       -1,2%      -1,1%                                                                                                                                                         -2,0%
                                                                                                                                                 -2,3%
    Cow s
                       -7,8%      +7,1%                                                         -3,4%                                                                                                    -3,7%
                                                                                            -4,8%
                                                              -5,2%
              +0,6%       -0,1%      -0,1%                                                                                                 -5,9%
   Heifers
                                                                                                                      -7,2%
                       -9,0%      -0,2%
                                                                                                                                       -8,5%
                                             - 10 %                                                                                                                      -9,4%                                            - 10 %
              +2,2%       +2,4%      +2,3%
     Veals                                                                      1%
                                                                              -1 ,1
                       +5,0%      -52,6%
                                                                                                                 -12,4%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   -14,9%
              +10,8%     +10,2%     +10,7%
     YBov
                       -14,6%     +56,7%


              +1,0%       +0,6%      +0,6%
 Tot Bov                                     - 20 %                                                                                                                                                                       - 20 %
                       -3,0%      +2,1%               BE BG CZ        DK DE     EE     IE     GR ES F R     IT    C Y LV      LT    LU H U M T     NL AT         PL PT           RO    SI     SK    FI     SE    UK

Estimates for last month of period : BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL

             DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                                          2
  Beef / Veal Production – 2010 / 2009 Evolution per MS ( Heads % share )
                                                  Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT                                -       ( 2010 Nov & Dec Forecasts for some MS )
Jan-Dec 09 / Jan-Dec 10

  100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Cows



   80%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Steers



   60%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Bulls




   40%                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Heifers




   20%                                                                                                                                                                                                                        YBov




     0%                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Veals
            B E   B G     C   Z   D   K   D   E   E   E   I   E   G R   E S   F   R   I   T   C   Y   L   V       L   T   L   U   H   U   M T   N   L   A T   P   L   P   T   R   O   S   I   S   K   F   I   S E   U K




                          DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                                 3
                                    Beef Meat Production - in Tons
                                                                               Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

TONNES         EU 15      EU 25      EU 27   + 10 %                              +9,5%                                                                        +9,1%                                       + 10 %
                                                                                                               EU : + 2,1%
Jan-Nov                EU 10       EU 2
                                                                                                                               +6,9%
                                                                                                                                                                                              +7,5%


              +0,8%       +1,2%      +1,1%
     Bulls                                                                                       +3,7%
                                                                   +3,4%
                       +4,4%      -1,9%
                                                                                         +2,7%
                                                      +2,3%
                                                                                                     +1,6%
              +5,6%       +5,6%      +5,6%                                                                                                                            +1,2%
                                                                       +0,7%
                                                                                                              +0,3%                              -0,1 +0,1%                        +0,3%
    Steers                                                                                                                                           %
                       +19,4%     -10,5%       0%                                                                                                                                                           0%

                                                                                             -1,3%
              +0,8%       -0,1%      -0,0%
                                                                                                                       -2,4%
    Cow s
                                                              -3,5%                                                                     -3,4%-3,6%                                        -3,2%
                       -7,5%      +7,7%

              +3,7%       +3,0%      +3,0%
   Heifers
                       -6,9%      +8,9%

                                             - 10 %                                                               -9,2%                                                                                   - 10 %
                                                                                                                                                          -9,5%
              +2,7%       +2,6%      +2,4%
                                                                                                                                   -10,4%
     Veals                                                                 -10,8%
                       -2,2%      -53,1%
                                                                                                                                                                                   -14,6%
              +15,4%     +14,8%     +15,3%
     YBov
                       -20,1%     +70,3%
                                                              -17,7%

              +2,4%       +2,0%      +2,1%
 Tot Bov                                     - 20 %                                                                                                                                                       - 20 %
                       -1,8%      +4,9%               B E B G C Z D K D E EE        IE   GR ES F R       IT   C Y LV      LT    LU H U M T N L A T    P L P T RO       SI     SK     FI     S E UK

Estimates for last month of period : BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL

              DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                         4
       Beef / Veal Production – 2010 / 2009 Evolution per MS (1000 Tonnes )
                                             Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT                    -     ( 2010 Nov & Dec Forecasts for some MS )
Jan-Dec 09 / Jan-Dec 10
1600
                                                                                                                                                                                        Cows

1400



1200                                                                                                                                                                                    Steers


1000

                                                                                                                                                                                        Bulls
 800



 600                                                                                                                                                                                    Heifers


 400

                                                                                                                                                                                        YBov
 200



   0
         B E   B G   C Z   D K   D E   E E     I   E   G R   E S   F R   I   T   C Y   L V   L T    L U   H U   M T   N L   A T   P L   P T   R O   S I   S K   F   I   S E   U K
                                                                                                                                                                                        Veals

                          DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                           5
                                 Percentual change in Adult Cattle Slaughter
                          Period: Jan - December (prov.)           Year: 2010 / 2009




     12.5%




      0.0%




    -12.5%




    -25.0%
              BE BG CZ DK DE EE EI   EL ES FR IT   CY LV LT LU HU MT NL ÖS PL PT RO SI SK SF SE UK   EU

Real + forecasted data

                 DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                     6
                                                          Change in Veal Slaughter
                                                                (Calves & Young Cattle)
                                       Period: Jan - December (prov.)                        Year:2009 & 2010


                     200.000

                                                                                                                                Y. Cattle
                     175.000
                                                                                                                                Calves

                     150.000
 Slaughter in Tonn




                     125.000


                     100.000


                      75.000


                      50.000


                      25.000


                       0.000
                               BE BG CZ DK DE   EE   EI   EL   ES   FR   IT   CY LV   LT   LU HU MT NL   ÖS PL   PT   RO   SI   SK SF    SE UK

Real + forecasted data
                               DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                              7
                        Beef/Veal - in Average Carcase Weight
                                                                             Source : Newcronos, EUROSTAT

Avg WEIGHT      EU 15      EU 25      EU 27   + 15 %                                                         +14,5%                                                                                         + 15 %

Jan-Nov                 EU 10      EU 2


               +1,7%      +1,7%      +1,8%
      Bulls
                        +2,4%      +5,3%                                                                                                     EU : + 1,4%
                                              + 10 %                                                                                                                                                        + 10 %
               +1,2%      +1,2%      +1,2%
    Steers
                        +0,4%      +4,1%                                                 +7,8%


               +1,0%      +1,1%      +1,0%
     Cow s
                        +0,4%      +0,5%
                                               +5%                                                                                                                                                          +5%
                                                           +4,2%
               +3,1%      +3,2%      +3,2%
   Heifers
                                                                                                                                                                   +2,5%
                        +2,3%      +9,2%                                                     +2,2%                             +2,1%                                                 +2,3%
                                                                                                                                                                        +2,0%
                                                               +1,8%
                                                                                +1,3%                  +1,5%                                           +1,3%
                                                                                                  +1,3%                   +1,3%                                                                 +1,3%
               +0,5%      +0,2%      +0,2%                           ,0% ,0%
                                                                   +1 +1
                                                                                                                                    +2,6%
                                                                            +0,4%                                                                                              +0,4%        +0,5%
     Veals                                                                                                                                       +0,0%         -0,1%
                        -6,9%      -0,9%        0%                                                                                                                                                            0%

               +4,2%      +4,1%      +4,1%
                                                                                                                                             -1,3%
      YBov
                        -6,5%      +8,7%                                                                                             -2,1%
                                                       -2,8%
                                                                                                                  -2,1%
                +1,4%      +1,4%      +1,4%
  Tot Bov                                      -5%                                                                                                                                                          -5%
                        +1,2%      +2,8%               B E B G C Z D K D E EE       IE   GR ES F R      IT     C Y LV     LT      LU H U M T N L A T     P L P T RO       SI    SK     FI    S E UK

Estimates ( HD ) for last month of period :    BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL                     Estimates ( TN ) for last month of period :                           BG EE GR ES IT CY LV HU AT PL


              DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                           8
          EU exports of beef and live animals (1):
          Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)


                         2006              2007              2008              2009           Jan-Dec 10        Compared
   Destinations
                     tonnes     %      tonnes     %      tonnes     %      tonnes     %      tonnes     %      to Jan-Dec 09
Russia                145 383 45.6%      87 277 35.2%     102 347 35.1%      50 881 20.4%     135 762 28.0%     + 166.8%
Turkey                   974    0.3%       214    0.1%       204    0.1%       571    0.2%     70 370 14.5%        +++
Lebanon                 4 823   1.5%      3 647   1.5%      5 619   1.9%      7 838   3.1%     33 774   7.0%       +++
Croatia                18 907   5.9%     16 460   6.6%     19 917   6.8%     25 126 10.1%      23 159   4.8%     - 7.8%
Sw itzerland           10 162   3.2%     14 457   5.8%     25 968   8.9%     19 072   7.7%     22 340   4.6%     + 17.1%
Algeria                 9 467   3.0%      1 674   0.7%      1 689   0.6%      6 681   2.7%     16 151   3.3%    + 141.7%
Ivory coast             4 938   1.5%      6 941   2.8%      8 969   3.1%     13 404   5.4%     14 853   3.1%     + 10.8%
EXTRA EU 25/27 318 927                 247 722           291 601           249 165           485 166
% change                                 - 22%             + 18%             - 15%           + 94.5%




              DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                             9
           EU exports of beef and live animals (2):
           Trade figures (COMEXT)

    EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal                                          EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000
           (Tonnes cwe)                                                              EUR)
                                                                                                      1 246      1 400 000
                                               600 000                                                 588

                                   485 166                                                                       1 200 000
                                               500 000
                                                                                                     369 358
                                                                                                                 1 000 000
                                   183 611     400 000
                                                                                                     93 784



                                                         cw




                                                                                                                                1,000 EUR
                                                                                                                 800 000
    291 601                                                            652 239                       67 465
                                               300 000                                  615 407
                      249 458       22 340
                                                         Tonnes
                                    16 151                                                                       600 000
                                                                                                     106 360
    135 857                         33 774                             256 436
                                               200 000                                  274 215
                      139 288       70 370                                                           251 608     400 000
     1 689                                                              7 032
     52049
       61                                      100 000                 14 51 6          31 580
                       6 681                                             3 79                                    200 000
                       75838       135 762                             212 869            2 06
                                                                                         23 170
                                                                                        1174406      276 009
    102 347               71
                       50 881
                                               0                                                                 0
   Jan-Dec 08        Jan-Dec 09   Jan-Dec 10                          Jan-Dec 08       Jan-Dec 09   Jan-Dec 10

Russia                 Turkey            Lebanon                  Russia                Turkey             Lebanon
Croatia                Algeria           Switzerland              Croatia               Algeria            Switzerland
Other destinations                                                Other destinations


                DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                            10
                         EU exports of beef and live animals (3):
                         Licence applications for exports with refunds (tonnes cwe)
                                                                          Live       Fresh   Frozen                      Tinned
                                                                                                           Offals                        Total
                                                                       animals        beef     beef                         beef
                                      Jul 09 - Dec 09                     9.253     20.385     4.949              0           936        35.523

                                      Jul 10 - Dec 10                  17.113 103.814        38.075               0                0 159.002
                                                  %share                 10,8%      65,3%      23,9%           0,0%        0,0%       100,0%
                                          % chg /prev.per               +84,9%    +409,3%    +669,3%                    -100,0%      +347,6%


                         Evolution per category (tonnes cwe)                                                     Evolution in export structure (% share)
                                                                                              100%
100000
                                                                                               80%
 80000

                                                                                               60%
 60000

                                                                                               40%
 40000


 20000                                                                                         20%


    0                                                                                          0%
         Live anim als   Fresh beef    Frozen beef             Offal         Tinned beef               2004/05     2005/06     2006/07     2007/08     2008/09      2009/10   2010/11

   2004/05     2005/06     2006/07    2007/08        2008/09           2009/10    2010/11       Live animals          Fresh beef         Frozen beef        Offal         Tinned beef

                         DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                 11
                         Exports of BEEF products
                                                                                 80 000

                                                                                 70 000

                                                                                 60 000

                                                                                 50 000




                                                                                          in Tonnes cwe
                                                                                 40 000

                                                                                 30 000

                                                                                 20 000

                                                                                 10 000

                                                                                 0
  |       2006     |      2007      |     2008     |     2009     |
Jan06            Jan07            Jan08          Jan09          Jan10
          LIVE ANIMALS           FRESH      FROZEN        PREPARED      OTHERS


        DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                   12
                                               EU bovine Exports to TURKEY
                                               Trade figures (COMEXT data)
                                               tonnes cwe

                                                                                                                       40 000



                       Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters                                                             35 000

                       Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters
                       Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters                                                        30 000

                       Frozen Bovine "Compensated" quarters
                                                                                                                       25 000
                       Live Animals
                       TOTAL
                                                                                                                       20 000



                                                                                                                       15 000



                                                                                                                       10 000



                                                                                                                       5 000



                                                                                                                       0
                                               May 10
                           Mar 10




                                                                                                     Nov 10
                                      Apr 10
Jan 10




                                                        Jun 10




                                                                 Jul 10




                                                                          Aug 10
              Feb 10




                                                                                   Sep 10




                                                                                            Oct 10




                                                                                                              Dec 10
         DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                        13
        EU imports of beef and live animals (1):
        Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)
                    2006              2007              2008              2009            Jan-Dec 10       Compared
  Origins
                 tonnes     %     tonnes      %     tonnes      %     tonnes      %     tonnes     %      to Jan-Dec 09
Brazil          331 762 64.7% 363 839 65.4% 171 454 43.4% 149 007 34.6% 144 791                   38.2%     - 3.3%
Argentina        82 865 16.1%      97 656 17.6%      92 924 23.5% 122 494 28.4%          79 487   21.0%     - 35.3%
Uruguay          45 350    8.8%    39 544    7.1%    66 402 16.8%      79 144 18.4%      66 156   17.5%     - 16.9%
Botswana          7 118    1.4%    13 929    2.5%    10 395    2.6%    11 452    2.7%    15 763    4.2%     + 37.7%
USA                 956    0.2%     2 746    0.5%     6 547    1.7%     9 609    2.2%    15 290    4.0%     + 57.5%
New Zealand       7 195    1.4%     5 756    1.0%    12 455    3.2%    15 783    3.7%    13 669    3.6%     - 13.4%
Namibia           8 063    1.6%    10 467    1.9%    10 348    2.6%    12 457    2.9%    13 571    3.6%     + 7.9%
Australia        12 366    2.4%    10 019    1.8%    12 957    3.3%    16 937    3.9%    13 628    3.6%     - 19.5%
Switzerland       1 979    0.4%     2 855    0.5%     2 919    0.7%     4 394    1.0%     4 450    1.2%     + 1.1%
Chile             2 036    0.4%     2 844    0.5%     2 550    0.6%     3 158    0.7%     2 441    0.6%     - 22.7%
Serbia            1 912    0.4%     2 324    0.4%     1 784    0.5%       990    0.2%     1 127    0.3%     + 13.8%
EXTRA EU 25/27513 160             556 024           395 063           431 182           378 954
% change                             + 8%             - 29%              + 9%           - 12.5%




           DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                         14
           EU imports of beef and live animals (2):
           Trade figures (COMEXT)

       IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU                                             IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU
                (Tonnes cwe)                                                                (1000 EUR)
                                                                               1 658 595                      1 6 2 3 0 4 2 1 800 000
                                                   500 000
                    432 978                                                                  1 541 783
                                                   450 000                     181 271                                     1 600 000
      395 044                        378 954                                                                254 500
                    55 307                         400 000                                  211 329                        1 400 000
      45 281
                                     59 561        350 000                     309 235                                     1 200 000
                    79 577                                                                  274 307         265 329
      66 404                                       300 000                                                                               in
                                                               In                                                          1 000 000
                                     66 156        250 000 T o n n e s                                                                  1000
      92 903                                                  cwe              558 814                                     800 000      EUR
                    122 867                        200 000                                                  470 251
                                     79 487                                                 508 770
                                                                                                                           600 000
                                                   150 000
                                                                                                                           400 000
                                                   100 000
      171 454       149 735          144 791                                   504 013                      485 858
                                                                                            431 247                        200 000
                                                   50 000

                                                   0                                                                       0
  Jan-Dec 08       Jan-Dec 09       Jan-Dec 10                                 Jan-Dec 08   Jan-Dec 09      Jan-Dec 10

Brazil                Argentina                Uruguay                   Brazil               Argentina              Uruguay

USA                   New Zealand              Other destinations        USA                  New Zealand            Other destinations

                DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                   15
                        Imports of BEEF products
                                                                             60 000


                                                                             50 000


                                                                             40 000




                                                                                      in Tonnes cwe
                                                                             30 000


                                                                             20 000


                                                                             10 000


                                                                             0
  |     2006     |     2007     |     2008     |     2009     |
Jan06          Jan07          Jan08          Jan09          Jan10

         FRESH            FROZEN             PREPARED               OTHERS

  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                     16
                                                                                 EU beef imports from Brazil
                                                                                 Trade figures (COMEXT data)
                                                                                 tonnes cwe

                                                                                                                                                                                                                        40 000
                                                                                                                                       Fresh Boneless
                                                                                                                                       Frozen Boneless Other
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        35 000
                                                                                                                                       Corned Beef
                                                                                                                                       Prepared Cooked Bovine                                                           30 000

                                                                                                                                       TOTAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        25 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        20 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        15 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                           Jul 07




                                             Nov 07




                                                                                 Jul 08




                                                                                                   Nov 08




                                                                                                                                       Jul 09




                                                                                                                                                         Nov 09




                                                                                                                                                                                             Jul 10




                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nov 10
                  May 07




                                                                        May 08




                                                                                                                              May 09




                                                                                                                                                                                    May 10
Jan 07




                                                      Jan 08




                                                                                                            Jan 09




                                                                                                                                                                  Jan 10
         Mar 07




                                                               Mar 08




                                                                                                                     Mar 09




                                                                                                                                                                           Mar 10
                                    Sep 07




                                                                                          Sep 08




                                                                                                                                                Sep 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Sep 10
                  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                                           17
      EU net import of beef and live animals?
                                                                                                                                  1 400

 1 263

         1 171                                                    IMPORTS               EXPORTS
                                                                                                                                  1 200
                 1 120

                                 1 028
                                                                                                                                  1 000


                          825
                                                                                                                                  800
                                          736
                                                                                                                                          10 0
                                                                                                                                 T on         0
                                                                                                                                     ne
                                                  598     598
                                                                                565             556                               600
                                                                513    529              513
                                                        491        481                                                    485
452             446             436                                       455
                                       429                                                                      431
       403              401                     398                                                     395             379
                                                                                  352                                             400
                                                                                          292             292
                                                                                                  248             249

                                                                                                                                  200




                                                                                                                                  0
1995     1996    1997    1998   1999     2000   2001    2002    2003   2004     2005    2006    2007    2008    2009     Jan-
                                                                                                                        Dec 10
             DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                      18
Source : GTA                                                              Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)




        United States (up to Nov 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                    United States (up to Nov 10)
                                       Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to Dec) - Monthly
                                                              figures

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2 000


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 800


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 600
                                       Australia




                                                                                                                                .




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Australia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      .
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 400
                                                                          .




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Brazil
                                                   Brazil




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Qty in 1000 Tonnes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            .
                                                                                                                                Argentina (up to Nov 10)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Canada (up to Nov 10)
                                                                                                                                                           .




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       .
                                                                          Canada (up to Nov 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1 000




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        New Zealand




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Argentina (up to Nov 10)
                                                            New Zealand




                                                                                                                                                           Uruguay (up to Oct 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Uruguay (up to Oct 10)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     India (up to Jul 10)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                800
                                                                                                         India (up to Jul 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                600




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              EU *
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                400
                                                                                                  EU *




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                200


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                       2009 (up to Dec)                                                                                                                                                            2010 (up to Dec)

                    * EU was the 11th biggest importer of Beef products in 2009

DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              19
Source : GTA                                                                              Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)




        United States (up to Nov 10)
                                       Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to Dec) - Monthly




                                                                                                                                                        United States (up to Nov 10)
                                                              figures

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 200

                                                                  Mexico (up to Nov 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Mexico (up to Nov 10)
                                                China + H. Kong




                                                                                                                                                                                                China + H. Kong
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1 000
                                       Russia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        800




                                                                                                                                                                                       Russia




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Qty in 1000 Tonnes
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Japan
                                                                                                                       Canada (up to Nov 10)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Canada (up to Nov 10)
                                                                                          Japan




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  South Korea
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        600
                                                                                                  South Korea
                                                                                                                EU *




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        400




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                EU *


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Turkey
                                                                                                                                               Turkey




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        200




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        0
                                                          2009 (up to Dec)                                                                                                                                2010 (up to Dec)

                        * EU was the 7th biggest importer of Beef products in 2009

 DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     20
 Evolution in EU carcass prices (1):
 Carcasses of adult male bovines (A/C price – €/100 kg cw)
  €/100 kg cwe                                                                    % of Reference Price


362                                                                                                   163%

342                                                                                                   154%

322                                                                                                   145%

302                                                                                                   136%

282                                                                                                   127%

262                                                                                                   118%

242                                                                                                   109%

222                                                                                                   100%
      1      5      9     13      17   21   25     29   33     37        41     45        49    53

             2004-2008 Avg                  2009                  2010                         2011
         Price in week 5 : 345,46                       Average price in janvier 2011 :   345,81
            % change y/y : + 6,2%                                      % change y/y :     + 7,1%
      % Ref. Price in wk 5 : 155,3%

 DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                      21
Evolution in EU carcass prices (2):
Young bull carcasses (A R3 – €/100 kg cw)

360




340




320




300




280
      1      5       9        13       17   21     25   29     33       37      41         45   49        53


              2004-2008 Avg                      2009                2010                       2011
          Price in week 5 :   350,54                     Average price in janvier 2011 :   348,33
            % change y/y :    + 6,8%                                    % change y/y :     + 7,2%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                    22
Evolution in EU carcass prices (3):
Steer carcasses (C R3 – €/100 kg cw)
340




320




300




280
      1      5       9        13       17   21     25   29     33       37      41         45    49        53

              2004-2008 Avg                      2009                2010                       2011

          Price in week 5 :   324,16                     Average price in janvier 2011 :   328,09
            % change y/y :    + 7,7%                                    % change y/y :     + 9,1%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                     23
Evolution in EU carcass prices (4):
Cow carcasses (D O3 – €/100 kg cw)
250




240




230




220




210
      1      5       9        13       17   21     25   29     33       37      41         45    49        53


              2004-2008 Avg                      2009                2010                       2011

          Price in week 5 :   242,47                     Average price in janvier 2011 :   241,00
            % change y/y :    + 9,3%                                    % change y/y :     + 9,0%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                     24
Evolution in EU carcass prices (5):
Heifer carcasses (E R3 – €/100 kg cw)

340




330




320




310




300
      1      5        9       13   17   21     25   29     33       37      41         45    49         53

                 2004-2008 Avg               2009                 2010                      2011
          Price in week 5 :   338,65                 Average price in janvier 2011 :    339,78
            % change y/y :    + 8,3%                                % change y/y :      + 9,8%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                  25
                       Beef prices in Brazil (Pecuaria.com.br),
                      Argentina (Oncca) Uruguay (Inac) and EU


              300,0




              250,0
€uro/ 100kg




              200,0




              150,0




              100,0
                      |        ye ar     |        Ye ar    |     Ye ar      |    Ye ar    |   Ye ar 2011   |
                               2007               2008           2009            2010

                                             EU Beef A/C R3
                                             AVG Arroba do Boi (6 St) (Pecuària.com.br)
                                             Novillos Export (Oncca Argentina)
                                             Media Res Novillo (Inac Uruguay)

                          DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                             26
                  weekly US & EU Steer prices in €uro/100kg
360.00


320.00


280.00


240.00


200.00


160.00


120.00


 80.00
         |         07          |       08          |    09           |          10         |         11
                 Steers 550-700lb Omaha (Nebraska)           Feeder Steer 600-700lb Oklahoma City
                 EU Beef C R3                                Steers 1050 - 1200lb Okla/ Tex
                 Canada: All Steers                          Australia: All Steers


             DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                    27
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (1)
Male store cattle (6-12 months; ≤ 300 kg – €/100 kg live weight)
230




220




210




200




190
      1      5       9        13   17   21     25   29         33      37       41         45    49        53

              2004-2008 Avg                  2009                    2010                       2011
          Price in week 5 :   207,36                     Average price in janvier 2011 :    207,84
            % change y/y :    - 6,2%                                    % change y/y :      - 4,6%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                     28
                 2010 / 2011 Evolution in prices :                                    (2a)
                 Male BEEF calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks
           500                                                                                     500




           400                                                                                     400
€ / Head




                                                                                                         € / Head
           300                                                                                     300




           200                                                                                     200




           100                                                                                     100
                    DE - FLECKVIEH              DE - KREUZUNGSKALBER   ES - TIPO CRUZADO
                    FR - MALES-ELEVAGE          IE - BEEF MALE         IT - MALES-BOUCHERIE
                    NL - VLEESRAS--NUKAS        Series9                UK - BEEF BULLS

                   DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                            29
                     2010 / 2011 Evolution in prices :                                          (2b)
                     Male DAIRY calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks
           300                                                                                                      300



           250                                                                                                      250



           200                                                                                                      200
€ / Head




                                                                                                                           € / Head
           150                                                                                                      150



           100                                                                                                      100



            50                                                                                                      50



             0                                                                                                      0
                 DE - SCHWARZBUNTE          DE - BRAUNVIEH                ES - TIPO FRISON      FR - MALES-ENGRAISSEMENT
                 IE - DAIRY MALE            IT - MALES-LAITIERS-VITELLI   NL - ROODBONT-NUKAS   NL - ZWARTBONT-NUKAS
                 Series3                    UK - DAIRY BULLS


                          DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                      30
Evolution in EU prices for live bovines (3)
Butcher calves (€/100 kg cw)
560



540




520



500




480



460
      1      5       9        13       17   21     25   29     33       37      41         45    49         53


              2004-2008 Avg                      2009                2010                       2011

          Price in week 5 :   551,69                     Average price in janvier 2011 :   550,04
            % change y/y :    + 2,9%                                    % change y/y :     + 3,7%


  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                      31
                                            Theoretical EU average
                         Margin Calculation for young bull production fed on basis of
                                    a ratio of Cereals and Compoundfeed
              350


              300


              250
€uro/ 100kg




              200


              150


              100


               50


                0
                    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011   01   02   03    04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11    12

                            Margin                 Feedcost             Price of A.R3                  average margin '03 - 10

                    Feed conversion rate: 7kg feed = 1kg Carcase.
                    Feed composition: 40% compound feed, 25% barley, 15% corn, 20% wheat


                      DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                                                            32
                                   Conclusion


Evolution in EU prices
Categories Global View (€/100 kg cw)

360             A R3                C R3            D O3      E R3


335



310



285



260



235



210
         2007            2008              2009      2010   2011

  DG AGRI, European Commission – 17 February 2011                  33

				
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