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The latest Q212 update to BMI’s Netherlands Telecoms Report contains analysis of the latest trends and developments in the telecommunications sector, a regional overview and our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU. There were two major developments in the Netherlands Telecoms sector in Q212, the announcement of Ziggo’s IPO in February 2012, and the contested mobile termination rate (MTR) glide path between the Netherlands regulator Opta and the European Commission.
Netherlands Telecommunications Report Q2 2012 Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 105 Price: US $ 1175 The latest Q212 update to BMI’s Netherlands Telecoms Report contains analysis of the latest trends and developments in the telecommunications sector, a regional overview and our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband subscriber markets, as well as for mobile monthly blended ARPU. There were two major developments in the Netherlands Telecoms sector in Q212, the announcement of Ziggo’s IPO in February 2012, and the contested mobile termination rate (MTR) glide path between the Netherlands regulator Opta and the European Commission. Ziggo’s IPO follows an aborted IPO in 2011, when market conditions derailed an IPO and put an end to rumours of a potential acquisition of Ziggo by cable rival UPC. As one of the largest IPOs in Europe for 2012, it is a good indication of the attractiveness of Ziggo and the Netherlands wireline market. Meanwhile, in February 2012 the European Commission wrote to Opta stating that its fixed and mobile termination rates do not comply with EUregulations. The commission contends that Opta's proposed termination rates are too high and will hit consumer interests and competition. In 2010 Opta proposed a glide path for fixed and mobile termination rates (F/MTRs) that was in line with the commission's 2009 recommendation for direct cost-orientated termination rates. However, Opta's proposed glide path was rejected by the Dutch Corporate Appeals Court, which requested that indirect costs of termination should also be included in Opta's calculations. By including costs not directly related to call termination, Opta's proposed glide path for termination rates was twice as high as under the Commission's methodology. It is on these grounds that the commission has suspended the implementation of the revised proposal. The case is one of several between national regulators and the commission. This quarter saw only minor changes to our mobile market forecasts as a result of YE11 figures reported by operators coming in slightly lower than our expectations. However our assumptions about the underlying trends impacting the market over the medium term unchanged. Our new forecast for the mobile market incorporates the latest subscriber data, published by the country’s three largest operators, KPN, Vodafone and T-Mobile, for Q411 and regulatory data to the end of September 2011. Our new wireline forecasts incorporate data from Opta, and from leading wireline operators such as KPN, UPC and Zesko Holding (Ziggo), T-Mobile and Tele2. The most recent data from the regulator OPTA for the period to the end of September 2011 show that the Dutch fixed broadband market had over 6.4mn fixed connections, with a further 1.004mn dedicated mobile broadband subscriptions. By the end of 2011, BMI estimates the Netherlands to have almost 7.64mn broadband connections, reflecting full-year growth of 8.5%. The Netherlands dropped from third to fifth position in BMI’s Q212 set of Risk/Reward Ratings for Western Europe. The decline was the result of a drop in the Industry Rewards score which was derived from the slowdown in mobile market growth that saw all three mobile network operators report a subscriber loss in Q411. This quarter saw the country’s Telecoms Rating fall from 68.1 to 65.7. The Netherlands continues to score above the regional average in all the categories evaluated by BMI, except Country Rewards. Telecommunications Report of Netherlands Q2 2012 Table of Contents Executive Summary . 7 SWOT Analysis 9 Netherlands Mobile Industry SWOT .. 9 Netherlands Wireline Industry SWOT .. 10 Netherlands Political SWOT 11 Netherlands Economic SWOT .. 12 Netherlands Business Environment SWOT... 13 Risk/Reward Ratings . 14 Western Europe . 14 Netherlands 17 Industry Forecast Scenario .. 19 Mobile ... 19 Mobile ARPU 21 Fixed Line . 23 Internet.. 25 Market Data Analysis . 27 Mobile ... 27 Customer Divisions .. 30 ARPU ... 32 MVNOs 34 Mobile Internet 35 Mobile Contract Wins ... 37 Mobile Operator Data .. 38 Mobile Content . 42 Industry Trends And Developments - Software And Content To Drive Revenue .. 42 Smart Meter Race Is On ... 46 Country Outlook .. 47 Value-Added Services Timeline 50 Fixed Line . 51 Internet.. 53 FTTH ... 56 WiMAX 58 Long-term Evolution (LTE) .. 59 IPTV . 59 Table: Wireline developments .. 61 Converged Service Operator Tables . 63 Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments .. 67 Netherlands: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 67 Overview .. 67 Legislation ... 68 Market Analyses ... 68 Interconnection And Access . 70 Regulatory Developments 70 Competitive Landscape 74 Market Overview.. 74 Key Players ... 74 Company Monitor .. 76 Huawei Focuses On Devices And Cloud Services For Western Europe 76 Company Profile 81 Royal KPN NV . 81 Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview ... 89 Fixed Line . 89 Mobile ... 91 Internet.. 93 Country Snapshot: Netherlands Demographic Data . 95 Section 1: Population 95 Section 2: Education And Healthcare ... 96 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ... 97 Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ... 97 Glossary Of Terms . 99 BMI Methodology . 100 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 100 Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 102 Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 102 Weighting ... 104
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