HOUSING AND LABOR MARKET TRENDS HAWAII

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					HOUSING AND LABOR
MARKET TRENDS: HAWAII

                                        May 2011


Community Development Research
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
National Trends
                  Unemployment dips below 9%

                                                    U.S. Unemployment Rate
                           12



                           10
       Unemployment Rate




                            8



                            6



                            4



                            2



                            0



                                                          Recession

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, November 2010
                                              Recovery, particularly in labor market, remains
                                              elusive
                                                                             Months Since Start of Recession to Employment Recovery
                                                    0   2   4   6   8   10     12   14   16   18     20   22    24    26   28   30   32     34   36   38   40   42   44   46   48
                                              0%
                                                                         1980                 1974             1981                  1990
    Percent Decline in Employment from Peak




                                              -1%



                                              -2%



                                              -3%



                                              -4%



                                              -5%

                                                                                                                2007
                                              -6%



                                              -7%




Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2010
          Case-Shiller Index shows continued softness in
          housing market
                                          Case-Shiller National House Price Index
                                                 (2000 = 100, Quarterly)


    200




    180




    160




    140




    120




    100
          2000      2001        2002      2003    2004    2005   2006    2007   2008   2009   2010


Source: Case - Shiller Home Price Index
                                     FHFA House Price Index Dips Again at End of 2010

                                                               FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index
                                    170
                                                                        (2000=100, quarterly)

                                    160


                                    150
FHFA House Price Index




                                    140
                         2000=100




                                    130


                                    120


                                    110


                                    100


                                     90
                                          2000   2001   2002      2003   2004   2005   2006    2007       2008   2009   2010


Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO), includes refinancing and is not seasonally adjusted
                           Nationally, delinquencies drop in 2010, but still
                           more than 4.5 million homes in distress
                        6,000,000



                        5,000,000



                        4,000,000
  Number of Mortgages




                        3,000,000



                        2,000,000



                        1,000,000



                               0
                                    2000   2001   2002       2003     2004        2005        2006      2007    2008   2009   2010


                                                         All Mortgages Past Due          Loans in Foreclosure
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
         Despite improvement, high rates of delinquency remain
         concentrated in western and southern states




Source: Lender Processing Service Inc. Applied Analytics, November 2010
                    HAMP modifications down; borrowers still face challenges in
                    obtaining permanent modifications

                  120,000




                  100,000




                   80,000
  Modifications




                   60,000




                   40,000




                   20,000




                       0
                            February   March   April    May     June    July   August   September October November December January
                                                                                                                             2011
                                          New HAMP Trials Started      New Permanent Modifications Started
Source: HAMP Service Performance Report Through January 2011
Composition of distressed sales
70.0%

60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
         Arizona     California     Florida     Industrial Pacific NW        South     Northeast      Rocky
           and                                   Midwest                                             Mountain
         Nevada

                     Damaged REO               Move-In Ready REO                Short Sale

  Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
Neighborhood stabilization: concerns over
investor purchases of distressed properties
                                                   Who Is Buying Properties?─February 2011
                           100%

                           90%

                           80%

                           70%
                                                                                                                      Investor
Percent of Property Type




                           60%

                           50%
                                                                                                                      First-Time
                           40%                                                                                        Homebuyer
                           30%
                                                                                                                      Current
                           20%                                                                                        Homeowner
                           10%

                            0%
                                  Damaged          Move-In Ready         Short Sale       Non-Distressed
                                    REO                REO
                     Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
Financing for home purchases
                                      100%

                                      90%
                                                             16%          18%             All Other
                                                28%                                       Financing
                                      80%                     5%
                                                                           5%
                                                                           2%
                                                             14%                          VA
 Percent of Buyer-Side Transactions




                                      70%        4%

                                      60%       19%
                                                                                          Fannie/Freddie
                                      50%

                                      40%       20%          55%          75%             FHA
                                      30%

                                      20%
                                                30%
                                                                                          Cash
                                      10%
                                                             11%
                                       0%

                                               Current     First-Time   Investors
                                             Homeowners   Homebuyers

Source: Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions, Feb 2011
          Many states within 12th District face severe budget
          shortfalls

                                   Total End-of-Year Shortfall as Percentage of 2010 Budget




Source: Data from Center for Budget and Policy Priorities
Hawaii Trends
     Unemployment rate in Hawaii drops in 2010

                          12



                          10



                          8
      Unemployment Rate




                          6
                                                                       US

                          4
                                                                     Hawaii

                          2



                          0
                           2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005      2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011
                                                               Recession
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011
         Unemployment in Hawaii highest on Kauai and big
         island




Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, February 2011
                                      Hawaii’s real estate market seems to be
                                      stabilizing
                                                          FHFA (formerly OFHEO) House Price Index
                                    250
                                                                   (2000=100, quarterly)

                                    230                                                                      Hawaii


                                    210                                                           Honolulu
FHFA House Price Index




                                    190
                         2000=100




                                    170

                                                                                           United States
                                    150


                                    130


                                    110


                                    90
                                          2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007      2008        2009   2010

     Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (formerly OFHEO)
                          Number of delinquent mortgages and properties in
                          foreclosure seems to be stabilizing

                          16,000


                          14,000


                          12,000
    Number of Mortgages




                          10,000


                           8,000


                           6,000


                           4,000


                           2,000


                              0
                                   2005     2006                 2007   2008            2009            2010

                                          Loans in Foreclosure                 All Mortgages Past Due

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
Maps
Hawaii Data Maps
         Areas Affected by Concentrated Foreclosures
                                                       February 2011




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Hawaii Data Maps
               Areas at Risk of Additional Foreclosures
                                                       February 2011




        Source: Lender Processing Services Inc. Applied Analytics & FRBSF Calculations
Conclusions
For More Information:
FRBSF Community Development Website
   Links to other resources
    and research on
    foreclosure trends and
    mitigation strategies
   All publications,
    presentations available on
    our website
   Conference materials also
    posted shortly after
    events


        http://www.frbsf.org/community/

				
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