Nuclear Deterrence.ppt by wangnuanzg


									Nuclear Deterrence
Cold War Nuclear Arms Race

   Soon after WWII, USSR develops A-Bomb
       U.S. no longer lone Superpower
   Both sides have H-Bombs by mid-50s
   By 1960s, each side develops enough warheads
    to thoroughly destroy one another
       Massive Fallout, “Nuclear Winter”
   Theory of Nuclear Deterrence developed
       How can war be prevented with all these weapons?
       Analytical War Games played in military “Think
“Balance of Terror”
   Main idea: Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
      Neither side can get advantage, both have to fear destruction

      Cities purposely targeted, held hostage to Nuclear Terror
      Retaliatory capability ensures that neither U.S. nor USSR will attack

      Enough weapons survive first strike to retaliate with second strike
   Must have variety of delivery systems so enough survive a first strike
      “Triad” of Missiles, Bombers and Submarines
   Must have protected (and automated) Command Systems to ensure second
    strike happens
      Strategic Command (STRATCOM) HQ deep underground
      Standing Orders for retaliation if Washington is wiped out

   “Destabilizing” Weapons not good—make war more likely
      Neutron bombs kill people, not property

      Anti-Ballistic Missiles (ABMs)—STAR WARS

   1950s/60s Political Issue—Kennedy elected 1960 promising to fix “Missile
Cuba becomes Soviet Ally
   1958—Castro overthrows U.S.-backed dictator Batista,
    pledges Socialist reforms, accepts Russian aid
   1961—U.S.-trained and supplied Cuban exiles land at
    Bay of Pigs
       Operation planned by CIA, approved by Pres. Eisenhower
       Pres. Kennedy allows, but refuses to provide USAF support
   Invasion fails, but Castro turns to Soviets for more
    security assistance
Khrushchev's Gambit
   Sees Kennedy as weak, sees advantage in setting up
    ICBMs to “defend” Cuba
   October 1961, we discover Russians setting up missile
   Proximity gives USSR superior first-strike capability—too
    little warning to retaliate
   Kennedy demands removal
       Establishes Naval Blockade of Cuba
       Tensions never higher—Fingers on Nuclear Trigger
   Khrushchev backs down, war averted
World Nuclear Arms Control
   Several Treaties try to limit Nuclear Proliferation
       Partial Test Ban, 1963
       Nuclear Non-Proliferation, 1968
          India, Pakistan and North Korea sign—later withdraw

       Comprehensive Test Ban 1996
   U.S./UN Sanctions against violators
       New agreement reached with PDRK over suspension of their
       Security Council debating action against Iran, but uranium
        production continues, missiles already exist
          03 DEC 07—NEW DEVELOPMENT: U.S. Intelligence
           Estimate now says Iran suspended Nuke development in

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