INFLATION
CONCEPTS
INFLATION DEFINATION
• GENERAL PRICE LEVELS INCREASES • VALUE OF MONEY (PURCHASING POWER OF MONEY ) FALLS • MONEY CIRCULATION > PRODUCTION
PROBLEMS
• PRICE RISE IS FASTER THAN INCOME • STANDARD OF LIVING DECLINES • MAJOR SOCIAL TENSIONS
INTERESTING FACTS
• Hungary:-highest ever inflation,1946 • Argentina:- 3,500 percent,1989,Brazil, 1,200 percent; Peru, 2,500 percent. • Zimbabwe :-1ooooo percent, September, 2008 • Delhi :- 1998 when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost state elections Onion Prices rised
INFLATION EFFECT ON ZIMBABWE
Decreasing value of Money
Worst effect due to Inflation
TYPES OF INFLATION
Hyperinflation: Is the most extreme inflation phenomenon, with yearly price increases of three-digits percentage points and an explosive acceleration.
Extremely high inflation
It could range anywhere between 50% and 100%. High inflation is a situation of price increase of, say, 30%-50% a year. Both kinds can be stable or dangerously accelerate to enter in an hyperinflation condition.
Contd.
Moderate inflation
It can be differently defined around the world, given the different inflation histories. As an indication only, one could consider an inflation as moderate when it ranges from 5% to 25-30%. For some countries, the higher part of this range is already "high inflation".
Low inflationIt can be characterized from 1-2% to 5%. Around zero there is no inflation (price stability). Below zero, a country faces deflation
RECENT INFLATION DATA
Data source: www.rbi.gov.in
METHODS
WPI
OF
CALCULATION
CPI Measures the average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households.
Measure the temporal price change of wholesale transactions of all commodities in the country.
The weights of items have been assigned in proportion to their share in the total value of transaction (output) in the economy
Weights are assigned in proportion to their share in the consumption expenditure of the family of industrial workers in the selected centers
Measures inflation at each stage of production
Measures inflation only at final stage of production.
India, is amongst few countries of the world, which selected WPI as its official scale to measure the inflation in the economy.
Most of the major economies like US, UK, Japan, France, Singapore and even our arch rival China have selected CPI as its official barometer to weigh its inflation
YEAR WISE WPI INDIA
WPI
250 206.2 200 155.7 150 121.6 100 127.2 132.8 140.7 145.3 161.3 166.8 175.9 187.3 195.6 215.7
Index
50
0
Data source: www.mospi.nic.in
CAUSE OF INFLATION IN INDIA
Demand-pull inflation refers to the idea that the
economy actual demands more goods and services than available. This shortage of supply enables sellers to raise prices until an equilibrium is put in place between supply and demand.
The cost-push theory , also known as "supply shock
inflation", suggests that shortages or shocks to the available supply of a certain good or product will cause a ripple effect through the economy by raising prices through the supply chain from the producer to the consumer. You can readily see this in oil markets. When OPEC reduces oil supply, prices are artificially driven up and result in higher prices at the pump.
Contd..
Money supply plays a large role in inflationary
pressure as well. Low interest rates correspond with a high levels of money supply and allow for more investment in big business and new ideas which eventually leads to unsustainable levels of inflation as cheap money is available.
EFFECTS OF INFLATION
BENEFITS
DEBTORS ENTREPRENEURS INVESTORS FARMERS UPPER INCOME GROUPS
LOSES
CREDITORS FIXED INCOME GROUPS
CONSUMERS
MIDDLE AND LOWER INCOME GROUPS
EFFECT Contd…
As inflation inched towards 12% while the industrial growth nosedived to 3.8 per cent.
CRUDE OIL PRICES AND INFLATION
Crude oil
245
240 235 230 225 220 215 210 205 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Series2
inflation
INDIA VS CHINA
CURRENT SCENARIO
Indeed, by July 2008, the key Indian Inflation Rate, the
Wholesale Price Index, has risen above 11%, its highest rate in 13 years. This is more than 6% higher than last year, almost three times the RBI’s target of 4.1%.
Hardening of inflation necessitated continuation
and reinforcement of monetary policy actions to dampen excessive demand pressures, while providing a conducive environment for continuation of the growth momentum.
REMEDIES
Cash Reserve Ratio increased. Control over Price of Petrol and Diesel. Decreased import tariff. Tax increase Cement price control. Import duty on non-agricultural products was brought down to 10% from 12.5% 7. Allowed appreciating the Rupee.
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
TACKLING FOOD PRICE INFLATION
The demand-supply mismatches need to be
addressed , Raising crop yields through the use of modern technology, improved irrigation facilities ,provision of market-based incentive systems for the farmers would help
TACKLING CRUDE OIL ISSUE
limiting the adverse impact of higher
international oil prices would require adopting strategies of greater decontrol of petroleum product pricing with targeted subsidies, rationalization of applicable taxes and duties to appropriate levels
CURRENT SCENARIO
INFLATION RATE
12 10.72 10 8.78 8
6
4
2
0 25-Oct 1-Nov
Inflation fell sharply to 8.98% in Nov 1st week due to: Fall in prices of fuel,mineral oil as well as manufactured products like steel.
Thank you……