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    12 Sept 2011                                    Energy Weekly




    12 Sept 2011                                                             FOR PRIVATE CIRCULATION ONLY

                                                 CRUDE OIL
    HIGHLIGHTS

       •   NYMEX crude plunges $2 Monday amid weakness in equity markets and strength in US dollar
       •   NYMEX crude rose 0.9% last week marking its third weekly gain
       •   Crude oil rose last week amid storm concerns, drop in US crude stocks and spread trade
       •   US DJIA index fell 2.2% last week marking its second weekly decline
       •   The US dollar index rose by 3.3% last week marking its second weekly gain
       •   EIA noted a 3.963 mn bbl decline in US crude oil stocks as against forecast of 1.9 mn bbl drop
       •   Obama laid out a $447-billion jobs package of tax cuts and government spending
       •   Fed Chairman says the central bank will spare no efforts to support the economy
       •   China imported 21.04 mn tonnes of crude oil in Aug, up 8.3% from July
       •   Germany rejected a lawsuit charging that the bailout of Greece was illegal
       •   Italy's Senate approved a multibillion-euro austerity plan on Wednesday
       •   Swiss National Bank Tuesday set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 francs to the euro
       •   About 6.2% of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains shut
       •   ICE Brent crude Oct contract ended at premium of $25.53/bbl Friday against $25.88/bbl a week ago
       •   The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. fell by 7 to 1057 rigs, as per Baker Hughes report

    MARKET ANALYSIS
    NYMEX crude plunged more than $2 Monday after a 0.9% gain last week. Crude oil fell amid weakness in
    equity markets and sharp rise in US dollar. Crude oil moved in a range of $7.28 (90.48-83.2/bbl) last
    week, the widest range seen in last three weeks, but ended with a modest gain.

    Crude oil slipped as low as $83.2/bbl earlier last week as global equity markets came under pressure
    following the weaker US non-farm payrolls data. Crude oil however bounced back to hit a high of
    $90.48/bbl on Wednesday amid storm concerns and recovery in equity markets. Equity markets rose on
    upbeat US ISM non-manufacturing reading and as Euro-zone debt concerns eased after Germany rejected
    a lawsuit charging that the bailout of Greece was illegal and as Italy passed austerity measures. Crude oil
    however failed to sustain above $90 per barrel as support from weekly inventory report was outweighed by
    retreat in equity markets. Equity markets came under pressure after ECB’s downbeat economic outlook
    and as Fed Chairman Bernanke did not divulge the details of the measures to be taken to support the
    economy. Obama’s jobs plan also failed to bolster market sentiment. Meanwhile markets plunged Friday
    after reports noted that ECB official Juergen Stark resigned.

    Crude oil eased also as concerns about health of Euro-zone economy pushed US dollar higher against the
    common currency. Euro-zone debt problems and ECB’s downbeat outlook added to concerns about the
    economy. Crude oil gained direction from storm activity. A number of storms formed last week however
    none affected production in the Gulf of Mexico and two of the weather patterns have dissipated. Meanwhile
    most of the production shut in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical storm Lee

    Crude oil was also affected spread trade last week. The spread between ICE Brent and WTI crude narrowed
    to $25.53/bbl on Friday after rising to $26.87/bbl earlier in the week. The spread narrowed as weekly
    inventory reports noted a bigger than expected decline in US crude oil stocks. While WTI crude ended
    higher last week, gasoline and heating oil futures plunged 2.4% and 0.4% respectively following which the
    spread narrowed. The 3-2-1 crack spread narrowed to $32.14/bbl from $35.02/bbl a week ago. Overall,
    crude oil has retreated from recent highs amid concerns about health of US and other major economies.
    Choppiness in equity markets and strength in the US dollar also put pressure on crude oil prices. While
    demand concerns continue to limit upside in crude oil prices, near term trend may continue to be
    determine by trend in equity and currency markets. Also in focus will be storm activity in the Atlantic and
    demand forecasts. The next major event to look for is the US Fed’s meet on Sept 20-21 meet. We believe
    that crude oil will remain in a broad range around $85 per barrel in the near term.

Energy Weekly                     Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                     1
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    12 Sept 2011                                     Energy Weekly
    STOCKS AND DEMAND
    API and EIA both noted a bigger than expected decline in US crude oil stocks. EIA noted a 3.963 mn bbl
    drop in US crude oil stocks as against expectations of a 1.9 mn bbl fall. The drop came in amid an 11%
    drop in imports. EIA however noted a 0.199 mn bbl increase in gasoline stocks as against expectations of a
    1.7 mn bbl decline. Meanwhile distillate stocks rose by 0.709 mn bbl as against forecast of stocks being
    unchanged. Meanwhile demand weakened last week. Crude oil demand, as measured by total product
    supplied, averaged 19.386 mn bpd last week, down 0.9% a week ago. Gasoline demand dropped 3% to
    average 8.956 mn bpd while distillate demand plunged 5.7% to average 3.853 mn bpd. Overall, US crude
    oil stocks are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of the year while gasoline and
    distillate stocks are in the upper range for this time of year. Higher stocks in US storage and concerns
    about health of the US economy have continued to weigh on WTI prices widening the spread between WTI
    and Brent crude to record high levels. Brent crude is gaining support from tighter North Sea markets and
    robust Asian demand. The spread stands near $26 per barrel however it may narrow as expectations that
    Libyan oil supplies may resume soon will limit upside in Brent prices. Expiration of Brent crude Oct contract
    this will also result in some narrowing of spread.

    CURRENCY MOVEMENT
    The US dollar index rose 3.3% last week marking its second weekly gain. The US dollar rose 3.9% against
    the Euro and noted a 2.1% gain against the British Pound. The US currency gained 1% against the
    Japanese Yen last week but noted a sharp 12.1% drop against the Swiss Franc. Currency markets
    witnessed sharp movement last week after SNB announced that it will limit the upside in Swiss Franc to 1.2
    level against the Euro. The US dollar rose sharply last week as concerns about health of Euro-zone
    economies and ECB’s hint towards a pause in monetary tightening put pressure on the Euro. Concerns
    about Euro-zone economies rose amid uncertainty about additional financing for Greece and as resignation
    of ECB official Juergen Stark highlighted the rift between policymakers. ECB kept interest rate unchanged
    and expressed concerns about health of the economy fuelling expectations that the central bank will not
    consider interest rate hike. Meanwhile, choppiness in equity markets also weighed on riskier currencies like
    Euro.

    ECONOMIC DATA
    The US economic data released last week was mixed keeping concerns high about health of the economy.
    US ISM non-manufacturing index and trade balance data was better than market expectations while
    weekly jobless claims rose unexpectedly. US President’s jobs package was bigger than expectations but
    failed to boost market sentiments. Euro-zone economic data released last week was also mixed. Euro-zone
    Sentix investor confidence and retail sales and German industrial production and services PMI was better
    than expectations. On the other hand, German factory orders, trade balance and Euro-zone composite PMI
    failed to meet expectations. UK economic data also pointed towards weakness in the economy. Services
    PMI and industrial production came in below expectations while manufacturing production rose in line with
    forecast. Chinese economic data released last week was mixed. Industrial production and trade balance
    reading was below expectations while retail sales rose more than expected. CPI and PPI both eased last
    month.

    SPECULATIVE POSITIONS
    The recent rally in crude oil prices was coupled with an increase in net long position. As per US CFTC report
    for the week ended Sept.6, non-commercial traders for crude oil futures raised long and short position by
    6.1% and 4.2% respectively. Net long position rose by 8.2% to 165142 contracts. This is the third
    consecutive rise in net long position and the highest level seen since June.

    OUTLOOK
    Crude oil trades under pressure weighed down by choppiness in equity markets and strength in US dollar.
    The US currency has gained against Euro amid concerns about Euro-zone economies however concerns
    about US economy will limit upside. Also while equity markets are choppy we may not see a sell-off similar
    to that seen a month ago. Expectations that US will take measures to support the economy will support
    equity markets. We expect crude oil to remain under pressure in the near term however a sustained
    decline is not expected and price may remain in a narrow range around $85/bbl and tend in equity markets
    will be the key price determining factor. Focus this week will be on US economic data, IEA and OPEC’s
    monthly oil market report. Libyan situation is unlikely to have a major impact on prices unless Qaddafi is
    captured. Also in focus will be storm activity in the Atlantic Ocean.
Energy Weekly                     Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                       2
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    12 Sept 2011                                     Energy Weekly

                                                 NATURAL GAS
    HIGHLIGHTS

       •   NYMEX natural gas rose 1.1% last week marking its first gain in four weeks
       •   Natural gas rose last week supported by storm activity in the Atlantic
       •   EIA notes a 64 Bcf increase in US working gas stocks as against expectations of 61 Bcf increase
       •   Natural gas speculators raised net short position by 1.8% for the week ended Sept 6
       •   The number of rigs drilling for gas in the U.S. fell by 3 to 892 rigs, third consecutive decline

    MARKET ANALYSIS
    NYMEX natural gas noted mixed trade last week but ended with a gain of 1.1% marking its first gain in
    four weeks. Natural gas moved in a range of $0.187/mmBtu ($4.038-$3.851/mmBtu) smallest trading
    range seen since Feb.

    Natural gas rose sharply last week as storm activity in the Atlantic intensified and as crude oil and energy
    futures gained. Natural gas however failed to sustain above $4 per mmBtu level and came under pressure
    amid mixed weather forecasts. Meanwhile crude oil and other energy futures retreated on economic
    concerns. Natural gas also came under pressure as EIA noted a slightly bigger than expected increase in
    US working gas stocks.

    Storm activity intensified as a number of storms formed last week. However Hurricane Katia and tropical
    Storm Nate have dissipated. Meanwhile most of the production shut in the Gulf of Mexico due to tropical
    Storm Lee has been resumed.

    Overall, natural gas came under pressure after failing to hold above $4 per mmBtu level. Weighing on
    prices are mixed weather forecasts, weakening outlook for the economy and expectations of higher
    production in US. While higher stocks and robust production in US will limit upside in natural gas prices,
    we expect prices to gain support from season weather related demand and continuing storm activity in the
    Atlantic. A number of storms have formed in last few days and in case storm activity continues, natural gas
    could see some rallies on back of short covering.

    STOCKS, RIG ACTIVITY AND PRODUCTION
    EIA weekly report noted a 64 Bcf increase in US working gas stocks as against forecast of 61 Bcf increase.
    The injection was above last year’s build of 58 Bcf and equal to the 5-year average injection of 64 Bcf.
    Stocks now stand at 3025 Bcf which is 4.2% lower than stocks same period last year and 1.9% lower than
    5-year average stocks for this time of the year. While stock deficit is narrowing, EIA expects US natural
    gas production to remain high. EIA expect marketed production to rise by 4 billion cubic feet per day to a
    record 65.8 Bcfpd, up from its previous estimate of a 3.68 Bcfpd increase. However lower prices did affect
    production as is evident from drop in rig activity. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in US fell by 3
    to 882 rigs last week. This is the third weekly decline in rig count and we could see further drop if prices
    fail to recover.

    SPECULATIVE INTEREST
    The recent mixed trend in natural gas prices has been coupled with an increase in both long and short
    positions. As per US CFTC report for the week ended Sept.6, non-commercial traders for gas futures raised
    long and short positions by 4.1% and 2.9% respectively. Net short position rose by 1.8% to 183017
    contracts.

    OUTLOOK
    Natural gas remains under pressure as concerns about health of US economy, mixed weather forecasts
    and expectations of higher production in US. While natural gas is likely to remain under pressure in the
    near term, downside may be limited by weather related demand and continuing storm activity. Also higher
    short positions could make prices vulnerable to short covering in case a storm forms. Overall, selling at
    higher levels is advisable for natural gas for this week. Focus will continue to be on economic situation in
    the US, weather related demand and storm activity. In case we see any storm forming near the Gulf of
    Mexico, natural gas could bounce back above $4 per mmBtu level.

Energy Weekly                      Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                        3
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    12 Sept 2011                                    Energy Weekly

      Price Movement on NYMEX last week
               Commodity                Close               change            %           High             Low
            Crude Oil ($/bbl)          87.24                 0.79            0.9         90.48             83.2
         Natural Gas ($/mmBtu)         3.915                 0.043           1.1         4.038            3.851
          Gasoline ($cents/gal)        277.1                 -6.86           -2.4        291.75           276.17
         Heating Oil ($cents/gal)     298.58                 -1.16           -0.4        308.76           293.4

      Price Movement on ICE last week
               Commodity                   Close            change           %           High              Low
         Brent Crude Oil ($/bbl)          112.77             0.44            0.4         116.6            109.85

      Price Movement on MCX last week
               Commodity                  Close             change           %           High               Low
            Crude Oil (Rs/bbl)            4067                88             2.2         4174              3843
        Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu)             184                4.9            2.7         186.9             178.1

      U.S. CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) Futures Only Report (06 Sept 2011)
      Non-commercial           Long            Short        Net position      Change                Change (%)
      Position (contracts)
      Crude Oil              337,970         172,828          165142          12454                        8.2
      Natural Gas            154,491         337,508         -183017           -3322                       1.8
      Gasoline               80,449           26,675          53774             3144                       6.2
      Heating Oil            50,458           32,883          17575             811                        4.8

      U.S. EIA Weekly Petroleum Inventory Report (02 Sept 2011)
       (1000 barrels)      Stocks    change     %     Expectation     Demand        Change%    Imports    Change%
          Crude Oil       353088      -3963 -1.11       -1900          19386          -0.90     8565       -10.85
           Gasoline       208840       199    0.10      -1700          8956           -2.96      597        -1.81
      Distillate Fuel Oil 156769       709    0.45         0            3853          -5.70      152       -13.64

      U.S. Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
      Billion Cubic Feet (BCF)  Date    Stocks     Change    change over last year    change over 5-year average
      Natural Gas              26-Aug 2,961         +55             -4.4%                       -2.0%
      Natural Gas              02-Sept 3,025        +64             -4.2%                       -1.9%

      U.S. Economic   Calendar (05 Sep to 09 Sept)
        Date           IST              Release                For      Actual        Consensus            Prior
       Sep-06         1930           ISM Services             Aug        53.3            51                52.7
       Sep-07         2330         Fed's Beige Book           Sep
       Sep-08         1800           Initial Claims          09-Mar      414K           400K              412K
       Sep-08         1800         Continuing Claims         Aug-27     3717K           3700K             3747K
       Sep-08         1800          Trade Balance              Jul      -$44.8         -$51.5B           -$53.1B
       Sep-09         1930       Wholesale Inventories         Jul       0.8%           0.7%              0.6%

      Other Markets              Close             change              %              High                 Low
         DJIA INDEX             10992.1             -248.2            -2.2           11477.3             10932.5
        DOLLAR INDEX             77.20               2.499            3.3            77.276              74.675
             EURO               1.3651             -0.0552            -3.9           1.4275              1.3626




Energy Weekly                     Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                           4
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    12 Sept 2011                                                        Energy Weekly
                                                                                      Forward Curve
    NYMEX crude oil contract spread chart (price in $/bb)
                                                                                      Crude oil shed most of the gains noted last
      93                                                                    93        week as is evident from rightward shift of the
      92                                                                    92
                                                                                      forward curve. The spread between 1st and 2nd
      91                                                                    91
                                                                                      month narrowed from $0.29/bbl to $0.17/bbl
                                                                                      last week. The gap between 1st month and
      90                                                                    90
                                                                                      12th month contract narrowed to $2.51/bbl
      89                                                                    89
                                                                                      from $2.51/bbl. The spread between 1st and
      88                                                                    88
                                                                                      2nd month had narrowed amid rebound in
      87                                                                    87
                                                                                      crude oil however we believe the spread to
      86                                                                    86
                                                                                      widen around $0.5/bbl level. The spread
      85                                                                    85
                                                                                      between near and far month contract has
           1M    2M    3M   4M   5M    6M   7M    8M    9M 10M 11M 12M
                                                                                      narrowed substantially amid rally in crude oil
                      Monday            Tuesday             W ednesday
                      Thursday          Friday                                        prices however we believe that demand
                                                                                      concerns will limit upside in crude oil prices
                                                                                      and the spread may widen around $3.5/bbl.


                                                       MCX Crude oil spread matrix (Rs/bbl)

                                                  Oct          Nov          Dec        Jan         Feb
                                 Sep              -23          -52          -88       -119        -152
                                 Oct               -           -29          -65        -96        -129
                                 Nov                            -           -36        -67        -100
                                 Dec                                         -         -31         -64
                                 Jan                                                    -          -33
                                 Feb                                                                -
                                                                                          Forward Curve
    NYMEX natural gas spread chart (price in $/mmBtu)
                                                                                          Natural gas retreated from high as is evident
      4.800                                                              4.800            from rightward shift of the forward curve. The
      4.700                                                              4.700
                                                                                          forward curve remains in deep Contango as
      4.600                                                              4.600
      4.500                                                              4.500            summer related demand is expected to wane
      4.400                                                              4.400            and winter demand may not be seen before
      4.300                                                              4.300            Nov. The spread between 1st and 2nd month
      4.200                                                              4.200            contract narrowed to $0.083/mmBtu from
      4.100                                                              4.100            $0.118/mmBtu a week ago. The spread
      4.000                                                              4.000
                                                                                          between 1st and 12th month contract narrowed
      3.900                                                              3.900
      3.800                                                              3.800
                                                                                          to $0.511/mmBtu from $0.568/mmBtu. The
                1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M 8M 9M 10M 11M 12M                                    spread has widened substantially as prices
                   Monday              Tuesday             W ednesday                     remain under pressure due to higher
                   Thursday            Friday                                             production and slack demand. However we do
                                                                                          not expect natural gas to see a sustained
                                                                                          decline and we expect that the spread will
                                                                                          narrow down once natural gas prices stabilize.


                                                 MCX Natural gas spread matrix (Rs/mmBtu)

                                                                     Oct           Nov
                                                         Sep         -4.9         -14.4
                                                         Oct           -           -9.5
                                                         Nov                         -



Energy Weekly                                Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                                  5
                77
    12 Sept 2011                                  Energy Weekly
    OUTLOOK

    CRUDE OIL- Crude oil is likely to remain under pressure in the near term amid demand concerns and
    strength in US dollar. However we do not expect crude oil to see a sustained decline and could remain in a
    narrow range around $85/bbl. Trend in equity and currency markets will remain key price determining
    factor. Focus will be on US economic data and IEA and OPEC’s monthly oil market outlook.

    NATURAL GAS- Natural gas will remain under pressure amid mild weather forecasts, higher production in US
    and concerns about health of US economy. However a sharp and sustained decline in natural gas is unlikely.
    Focus will be on weather forecasts, storm activity in the Atlantic and US economic data.

    TECHNICAL LEVELS
                               QUOTE           SUPPORT        SUPPORT        RESISTANCE           RESISTANCE
      NYMEX Crude Oil         USD/BBL             80            83.5            90.8                 94.5
     NYMEX Natural gas       USD/MMBTU           3.75           3.84            4.02                 4.15
       MCX Crude Oil           RS/BBL            3700           3875            4200                 4350
      MCX Natural gas        RS/BMMBTU           175             180             189                  193

    ECONOMIC CALENDAR
       Date      IST           Currency                        Data                    Forecast      Previous
      Sep-13     1:30            USD             FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
                                 GBP          Nationwide Consumer Confidence                              49
                   14:00         GBP                         CPI y/y                   4.50%          4.40%
                   14:00         GBP                     Trade Balance                  -8.5B          -8.9B
      Sep-14       10:00         JPY          Revised Industrial Production m/m        0.60%           0.60%
                   14:00         GBP                Claimant Count Change               34.6K          37.1K
                   14:00         GBP                  Unemployment Rate                 7.90%          7.90%
                   14:30         EUR              Industrial Production m/m            1.50%          -0.70%
                   18:00         USD                        PPI m/m                    -0.10%          0.20%
                   18:00         USD                    Retail Sales m/m                0.20%          0.50%
      Sep-15       14:00         GBP                    Retail Sales m/m               -0.20%          0.20%
                   14:30         EUR                         CPI y/y                   2.50%          2.50%
                   18:00         USD                 Unemployment Claims                 410K           414K
                   18:00         USD                        CPI m/m                    0.30%          0.50%
                   18:00         USD          Empire State Manufacturing Index           -3.9            -7.7
                   18:45         USD              Industrial Production m/m            0.10%          0.90%
                   19:30         USD            Philly Fed Manufacturing Index          -14.4           -30.7
      Sep-16       14:30         EUR                     Trade Balance                   1.7B          -1.6B
                   19:25         USD           Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment             56.2            55.7
    Source: Forex Factory

    ENERGY CALENDAR
     DATE      IST                                       DATA                                           FOR
    Sept 12                                 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report                              Sept
    Sept 13                                      IEA Oil Market Report                                  Sept
    Sept 14   0200                  API US Weekly Petroleum Product Inventory Report                   Sept 9
    Sept 14   2030                  US DOE Weekly Petroleum Product Inventory Report                   Sept 9
    Sept 15   2000                     US DOE Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report                      Sept 9




Energy Weekly                    Please See Disclaimer on the Last Page                                    6
                        77
    12 Sept 2011                                                                         Energy Weekly




                    Faiyaz Hudani                                                                           Dharmesh Bhatia
                    Sr. Research Analyst- Spices, Edible Oil                                                Associate Vice-President- Technical Research
                    faiyaz.hudani@kotakcommodities.com                                                      dharmesh.bhatia@kotakcommodities.com
                    +91-22-66528837                                                                         +91-22-66528846




                    Sudha R. Acharya                                                                        Amit Sajeja
                    Research analyst- Edible Oil, Pulses                                                    Sr. Research Analyst- Technical Analyst
                    sudha.acharya@kotakcommodities.com                                                      amit.sajeja@kotakcommodities.com
                    +91-22-66528809                                                                         +91-22-66528847




                    Madhavi Mehta                                                                           Ajay Baheti
                    Research analyst- Energy, Bullion                                                       Associate Research- Technical Analyst
                    madhavi.mehta@kotakcommodities.com                                                      ajay.baheti@kotakcommodities.com
                    +91-22-66528857                                                                         +91-22-66528845




                    Priyanka Jhaveri
                    Research analyst- Base Metals
                    priyanka.jhaveri@kotakcommodities.com
                    +91-22-66528848




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