San Jose State University by jolinmilioncherie

VIEWS: 2 PAGES: 96

									          Spatial Economics
• Primary Sector: Agriculture and Extraction
  – Covered last chapter
• Secondary Sector: Manufacturing
• Tertiary Sector: Services
  – Pay Scales:
     • Primary: 0  $
     • Secondary: $  $$
     • Tertiary: $  $$$
                    Industry: Manufacturing




http://www.china-consulting-sourcing.com/Img/xin_b18be03cc16511d69cfb00c04f4adb90.jpg
http://www.tickintsofcentralohio.org/images/Historical/MODEL_T_ASSEMBLY_LINE.jpg
http://faculty.virginia.edu/hius341/images/objects/fordassemblyline.jpg
       Beginnings: Cottage Industry




• http://www.fao.org/docrep/w9500e/w9500e72.jpg
            Steam Engine, by James Watt
                                Heralded the Industrial Revolution
                                • Pumped mine water
                                • Drove machinery
                                • Drove railroad engines

                                • (Before the steam engine,
                                  machinery driven manually, by
                                  wind, or by water.)




http://www.glasgowmuseums.com/assets/slideShows/Watt%20Steam%20Engine.jpg
   Steam Application: Locomotive, Railroad




    •   Faster, more efficient land transportation, with larger loads
    •   Steam engine + wheels + rails
    •   U.K.  Germany France, U.S., etc.
    •   Engines considerably sped up local development.


•http://library.thinkquest.org/04oct/01249/imagesc/locomotive.jpg
Example: Smithsonian Museum
(Modern Museum of Industries)




   http://sc94.ameslab.gov/TOUR/smithsonian.gif
   Land Cost Example: Tokyo Bay
                                                        • Purple is
                                                          built-up.
                                                        • Green is
                                                          vegetation
                                                        • High land
                                                          rents
                                                        • Land built in
                                                          the bay




•http://www.gdrc.org/oceans/un-seahorse/images/tokyo-bay.gif
                  Density  Higher land rent




•   http://homepage1.nifty.com/sukusuku/photo/tdr/2003/020-tokyo-bay.jpg
   Educated Large Labor Force  Growth




• http://www.benchmarkstaffing.com/images/pics/client_img.gif
Skilled labor  higher productivity, profits

                                    Key to manufacturing
                                    • Literacy
                                    • Technical skills

                                    • Strong in EU, US,
                                      Russia, China, etc.
                                    • Weak in Africa, parts of
                                      Asia and S. America

  •http://www.benchmarkstaffing.com/images/pics/client_img.gif
    Lax Laws: Child Labor  more profits
                                                                         Then: U.S.




           Now: Third World

•   Information: http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/childlabor/
•   http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/childlabor/empty.jpg
•   http://www.kenlight.com/photos/childlabor/beads.jpg
       Site: Capital and Interest Rates

                                                        • Negotiable
                                                        • Varies by
                                                          country, and
                                                          over time…
                                                        • Sometimes
                                                          varies by
                                                          region, site




http://www.norges-bank.no/english/speeches/annual-2004/charts/chart1.gif
               Situation: Bulk Reducing: Copper




                               Processing reduces shipping costs.

http://mining.ubc.ca/cimarchive/Smelter/AnodCast/10000039.JPG, http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/~wegryn/images/Morenci3.JPG
http://stoner.eps.mcgill.ca/HomeImage/open_pit_copper_mine_arizona.jpg
                 Situation: Bulk Gaining:
               Locations near the customer




 • Reduces distribution costs by adding bulk near the consumer.
 • Example, Coke: Just add water and carbonation…



•http://www.texasescapes.com/Signs/CocaCola/CocaColaRoswellNewMexicoCBarclayGibson.jpg
     By-products: Steel Mills Pollution




•   http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/images/0ChinaBeijSteelPol.jpg
                                   Transportation




• Transportation: part of services sector (Tertiary sector, next chapter.)
• Picking sites with good transportation at the location is a site decision.
• Location central to customers, and near transportation modes, are situation
  decisions.
http://www.theclydebankstory.com/images/TCSM00108_m.jpg
http://www.speakeasy.org/~peterc/nicaragua/drycanal/containr/images/dblstac1.jpg
http://www.airliners.nl/images/DAS_Air_Cargo_280204.jpg
       Market Decline and Stagnation




Market Decline can destroy companies , while stagnation stalls growth.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_4jIlyJ10uJU/TPFEHXh6K9I/AAAAAAAAKic/ICj7os7vJFU/s1600/Sur%2BGoods.JPG
   Stagnation: Agricultural Sector and Trade




• Demand is flat, sometimes declining!
• No market growth  little incentive to enter market.
• (Example grains, from agriculture, same principle works here.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/circular/1999/99-05/graint3.gif
                 Problem: Capacity Exceeds Demand:




• Could be SUVs, Trucks… Remember the present and past.
 Story:http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/investor_overview/industry_overview/2005/phosphate/page_19.zsp
Image: http://www.potashcorp.com/common/images/content_images/markets/industry_overview/2005/graphs/S519_New-DAP-Cap-vs-Demand.gif
            Increasing Product Supply:
• Plastic ‘Stuff’:
   – When you get your plastic stuff, see where it comes from.
      • Japan
      • Korea
      • China
      • India
• Shoes:
   – When you shop for shoes, look at the tags.
      • Was Indonesia (but we boycotted sweat shops, so…)
      • Now made in China
         Resource Demand: Oil




• Increased demand, but old
  supplies dwindle
• More demand, less supply 
  higher prices
http://www.kkrva.se/images/energi/priddle2.jpg
                US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use:




•   Total demand increases
•   Local production falls
•   Foreign oil purchases, dependency
•   Foreign oil supply and foreign policy are critical.

Images: http://www.azgs.az.gov/images/winter0106.gif http://www.cpast.org/Articles/Artfiles/000/000/014/f14_6.gif
                  Innovation: Assembly Line




•   http://www.tickintsofcentralohio.org/images/Historical/MODEL_T_ASSEMBLY_LINE.jpg
•   http://faculty.virginia.edu/hius341/images/objects/fordassemblyline.jpg
                        MDC perspectives
• Trading Blocks: Example of cooperation…
   – Politics chapter
        • Competitive trade advantages (NAFTA, OPEC, &)
• Internal disparities within countries and unions
   – areas of growth and decline…
        • (Rust Belt, R&D regions such as Silicon Valley)
• Older, shrinking established populations, immigration
   – Population and Migration,
        • (Western E.U. and Japan, Scandinavia, Russia)
• Transnational Corporations
   – Globalization of production
        • Outsourcing
                        LDC perspectives
•     More Disadvantages:
    –   distance to (external) markets,
    –   inadequate infrastructure: (transportation, communications, goods,
        services, tools, machines)
    –   entrenched competition,
    –   inconsistent governance and laws,
    –   government instability,
    –   low literacy
•     More Advantages:
    –   low labor costs,
    –   local raw materials (if any)
    –   fewer legal restrictions, (e.g. easier to pollute)
    –   Large labor pools
    –   Few or no benefits (health, retirement, vacation, etc.)
                   Services:

Service:
• Any activity that fulfills a human want or need
  and returns money to those who provide it.

(Not Manufacturing…)
• Not people making ‘stuff’.
                          Service Types:
•     Consumer Services
    –    Services for people who enjoy them
        • Retail Services: sales to individual consumers
        • Personal Services: services for the well being and personal
            improvement of individual consumers.
•     Producer Services:
    –    Services for people who use services for their work.
        • banks, insurance, real estate, financial, law, engineering, wholesale
•     Transportation and Information Services,
    –    Railroads, trucking, phone, airlines, UPS, cable
•     Public Services
    –    Provide security and protection for citizens and businesses
    –    Provide benefits to society as a whole.
        • (Includes teaching)
               Situation patterns

• Dispersed Settlements:
   – more self-sufficient,
   – lower demand for goods/services
   – Example: Mid-Atlantic US  Midwest
• Clustered Settlements:
   – more interdependent
   – produce better goods by specializing
   – Examples: New England, Europe
        Site Patterns:

– Circular (defensible),
– Linear (along rivers, roads),
– Grid (Chang-An, Nara, Kyoto),
– Long-lot (France, Canada)
            Central Place Theory

• (important!)
  – (What do I do when things are important?)
• Why is it important?
  – Helps explain the distribution of services, and why
    a regular pattern develops.
  – Helps explain migration patterns.
  – Half of the explanation for cities, the next chapter.
               Threshold and Range




• Threshold: minimum population required to survive.
• Range: maximum distance people travel for a service.

http://teacherweb.ftl.pinecrest.edu/snyderd/APHG/Unit%206/
   urbannotes_files/image002.jpg
              Increasing Competition




A: Less competition: circles
B: More competition: overlapping service ranges
C: Select the closest store  lines service boundaries
    This produces hexagons.

http://www.csiss.org/learning_resources/content/g5/materials/G5
   _Image_Library/de_Blij_figures/IMAGE_56.JPG
Hexagon: Basic shape
• Highly competitive market:
   – all areas are served.
• Equal services:
   – Go to the closest service.
• Boundaries form the lines of a
  hexagon.
• http://www.uwec.edu/Geograp
  hy/Ivogeler/w111/circle4.gif
                   3
• http://www-
  personal.umich.edu/~sarhaus/courses/NR
  E501_W1999/501w/cptk7.jpg
    Central Place Theory: Pattern
•    Stores requiring a larger market threshold
     must serve more than one settlement to
     survive. These stores serve a market area
     encompassing neighboring settlements within
     their range.
•    If the range encompasses one neighboring
     settlement, it encompasses all six.
    Central Place Theory: Pattern
•    This results in hexagons containing 7 settlements.
     The central settlements contain these (larger market
     threshold and range) stores serving more communities
     are larger, and are also known as more central
     places. (This gives the name to the theory.)
•    Stores with still larger thresholds and ranges
     encompass clusters of these larger communities, and
     are located at cluster centers.
    Applied Central Place Theory
–  CPT pattern affects migration
  • Jobs,
  • services,
  • convenience
– Concentration and mixture of cultures, development
   of subcultures
  • Faster dispersion of:
      – new ideas, activities, things,
      – cultural change
                           Rank Size:
•     Small Towns: serve local region, with small range stores that
      contain the population threshold.
    –    Castroville: often, small store, gas, motel?
•     Medium Towns: Sell to small towns within a larger local region or
      service area.
    –    King City: supermarkets, auto sales, mall & CBD
•     Small Cities: Serve medium towns within an even larger region.
    –    Salinas: Wal-mart/K-Mart/Cosco, Community College
•     Larger Cities: Market to small cities within an increasing, larger
      service area
    –    San Jose: University, convention center, international airport,
         wide range of services
     Largest City Comparisons:

•   Rank Size Rule: (pattern) The nth city (or city rank) has
    approximately 1/n * the population of the largest city.
   – When the rank size rule does not work for the second
       city, the first city is extremely dominant.
•   Primate City Rule: (pattern) The largest city in a region
    has more than twice the population of the second largest
    city.
You have one OR the other, but not both!
              Cities: History
– Ancient cities: ex: Ur, Chang-an, Athens, Rome
  (wall, temples, market, housing, & road networks)
– City states: independent self-governing
  communities that included a nearby countryside
– Medieval cities: ex: Paris, London (often charters
  of rights, more personal freedom/less serfdom)
– Modern World Cities: ex: NYC/Tokyo/London
  (global reach/service area, e.g. finance, influence)
  Central Place Theory: Review
• A threshold population is needed for success
• This population must be in range for them to buy.
• With overlapping ranges, people pick closest store.
  – (This defines the service area in the simplest case.)
• Hexagons result from closest packing.
• Then, services need a threshold (population) within
  the service area.
• A beehive pattern is optimal for consumer access.
• We find a nested pattern of larger and smaller
  communities, larger communities also have stores
  with larger range, serving smaller communities.
 Resource Issues
Manufacturing and Services
Environment and Economics
               Total energy consumption per capita
                                                               2003             2000        1990
         World                                                1,674.40        1,633.80      1,633.30

                                                               2003             2000        1990
         Developed Countries                                  4,623.10        4,576.80 ..
         Developing Countries                                     910.1            840.1      705.7

                                          ISO                  2003             2000        1990
         Brazil                           BRA                 1,067.60        1,068.10        896.6
         China {1}                        CHN                 1,138.30             946.4      791.7
         France                           FRA                 4,518.40        4,345.10      4,005.90
         Germany                          DEU                 4,203.10        4,173.00      4,484.50
         India                            IND                     512.4            501.4      425.7
         Mexico                           MEX                 1,533.20        1,502.40      1,475.00
         United Kingdom                   GBR                 3,918.10        3,970.20      3,738.10
         United States                    USA                 7,794.80        8,109.00      7,543.40
         Kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person
http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/results.php?years=1990-1990,2000-2000,2003-
2003&variable_ID=351&theme=6&cID=26,38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10
       Global carbon consumption per capita:
                                                                  1980             1990         2000
            World                                                      4.24             4.06      3.95

                                                                  1980             1990         2000
            Developed Countries                                      12.48            11.94      11.11
            Developing Countries                                       1.25             1.55      1.91

                                             ISO                  1980             1990         2000
            China                            CHN                       1.54               2.2     2.72
            France                           FRA                       9.03             6.65      6.16
            Germany                          DEU                     14.05            12.23      10.42
            India                            IND                       0.46             0.76      1.03
            Mexico                           MEX                       3.83             3.66      3.86
            United Kingdom                   GBR                     10.66            10.16        9.4
            United States                    USA                     20.87            19.22      20.29
                          (Down? Not. Population still increases.)
http://earthtrends.wri.org/searchable_db/results.php?theme=3&years=1980-1980,1990-1990,2000-
2000&variable_ID=466&cID=38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10&years_rev=1
               Resources:
• Energy
  – Petroleum
  – Natural Gas
  – Coal
  – Nuclear
• Minerals
  – Ferrous: Iron, et. al.
  – Non-Ferrous: Many more.
• Crucial to the world as we know it today.
                      Pollution:
• Pollution occurs when more waste products are
  generated than a resource (local system) can
  accommodate.
  – Natural
    • Volcanoes, Floods, etc.
  – Human
    •   Manufacturing
    •   Transportation
    •   Consumption
    •   Discarded products
    •   Waste Products
              By-products: Solid Pollution




•   http://www.pools-hottubs.com/Dump%201.JPG
Land and Water Pollution: Tailings
                Tailings:
                • Leavings of the mine
                • Unwanted by-product

                Tailings also produce:
                • Dust
                • Contaminated runoff


                http://www.robinsonforest.org/mining/strip_mine_runoff.jpg
      Mining and Mountain Topping:




• http://www.pbs.org/independentlens/razingappalachia/images/home_left.jpg
    Abandoned industries & Superfund sites




•   http://www.blm.gov/aml/graphics/pregpond.jpg
•   BLM abandoned mine work: http://www.blm.gov/aml/alphindex_aml.htm
By-products: Liquid Pollution

              •   Agricultural
              •   Manufacturing
              •   Services
              •   Sewage


              http://www.motherjones.com/news/feat
                 urex/2006/03/runoff_265x347.jpg
      Population and Consumption:

What happens if the present population
increases consumption to the present
     first world consumption rate?
1.   Use present consumption information
2.   Compare the industrial world and the
     rest of the world.
3.   Set the world to industrialized world
     consumption
4.   Compare present and fully
     industrialized consumption.
     1) Find a relative consumption factor:
MDCs
• 20% of population uses 80% of resources.
• 0.2 * R1 = 0.8
• R1 = 0.8 / 0.2 = 4
• (4 * AVERAGE!)

LDCs
• 80% of population uses 20% of resources.
• 0.8 * R2 = 0.2
• R2 = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25
• (1/4 OF AVERAGE!)
    2) Compare the MDCs and LDCs:

• Try a ratio:
• R1 / R2 = 4 / 0.25
• R1 / R2 = 16
• If still true, the First World (MDCs)
uses 16 times the amount of resources
per capita as the rest of the world.
• (Amazing!)
    3) Set the world to MDC consumption:

Old total consumption:
• (MDCs) + (Everyone Else) = 1
• (20% * 4) + (80% * .25) = 1
Fully industrialized total consumption:
• 100% * 4 = 4
• 4 * present average… (Problem!)
          Q1: Is this supportable? Realistic?

• We would run out of oil approx. 4 times as fast.
• We would have 4 * the demand for raw materials.
• We would have 4 * the demand for steel and other industrial
  products.
• The world would in theory eat a similar calorie and meat diet.
• The world also would adopt our approach wholesale.
   – (All are doubtful.)
                                 (Another Estimate)




                                                                       http://ww
                                                                       w.uwsp.
                                                                       edu/busi
                                                                       ness/ec
                                                                       onomics
                                                                       wisconsi
                                                                       n/e_lect
                                                                       ure/pop_
                                                                       images/
                                                                       pop_gro
                                                                       wth.jpg




Article: World Population Change: Boom or Bust?
   – http://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lecture/pop_sum.htm
              When do we run out? What do we do?
                                                                     Assumptions are used in
                                                                       each model:
                                                                     • Proven Reserves,
                                                                     • Potential Reserves,
                                                                     • Reasonable production
                                                                       costs, &
                                                                     Note: This estimate
                                                                       assumes no coal,
                                                                       nuclear by 2050, but
                                                                       both are now major
                                                                       contributions.
                                                                     • Is this the ‘best’ mix?
                                                                     • What is ‘best’? Why?
                                                                     • Who picks? How?

http://www.hdg-online.net/data/comp_images/1248/0202_29_tab1_e.jpg
      Local, Regional,
       Global Effects                              Sources:
                                                   • Transportation
                                                   • Energy
                                                     consumption
                                                   • Manufacturing




http://www.torontoenvironment.org/image/view/154
http://www.wnbiodiesel.com/smog.jpg
            Local  Regional: Smog in China




        http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Smog/2004/UNIchina008_MO.jpg




•   http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Unique/Smog/2004/UNIchina008_MO.jpg
            Smog: combustion engines, industry




•   http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/P/photochemical_smog.gif
                 Oil Drilling used to be easy.




•   http://www.bfcollection.net/indphoto/jpg/02294s.jpg
Harder Sites: Offshore Oil, and Slicks
                • Background:
                  – Oil platform
                • Foreground:
                  – Oil Slick
                • Site:
                  – Santa Barbara
                    Channel
                 http://www.countyofsb.org/energy/images/1969Blowout.jpg
                 http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.countyofsb.org/ene
                 rgy/images/1969Blowout.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.countyofsb.org/ener
                 gy/information/1969blowout.asp&h=374&w=255&sz=23&hl=en&start=1
                 3&tbnid=ubcKu3hGTJKE2M:&tbnh=122&tbnw=83&prev=/images%3Fq
                 %3Doil%2Bplatform%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe
                 %3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-
                 US:official_s%26sa%3DG (Text)
      US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use:




•   Total demand increases
•   Local production falls
•   Foreign oil purchases & dependency
•   Foreign oil supply and foreign policy become critical.
Images: http://www.azgs.az.gov/images/winter0106.gif http://www.cpast.org/Articles/Artfiles/000/000/014/f14_6.gif
           We do not control our oil future.




• (Relate to ANWR.)
• Image: http://oil.server4.com/temp9.gif
                     Resource Demand: Oil




• Increased Demand, but old supplies dwindle
• New supplies are more costly.
• More demand, less supply  higher prices


http://www.kkrva.se/images/energi/priddle2.jpg
                                                                                    • Extract from proven reserves.
   Oil Reserves:                                                                    • Note location and regional (in)stability.

http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/proved.versus2.gif
http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/proved.versus2.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/index2.html&h=404&w=550&sz=21&hl=en&start=2&tbnid=q41euhCtAOLmeM:&tb
nh=98&tbnw=133&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dproven%2Boil%2Bsupply%2Bworld%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official_s%26sa%3DG
     What are ‘Recoverable, Unconventional?’
• Unconventional:
   – Tar Sands
   – Oil Shale
• Recoverable:
   – Re-tapping old fields (See ‘fracking’, and associate risks.)
• Many extraction efforts need new technologies
       • Deeper wells
       • Deep-sea drilling
       • Specialized extraction techniques
            – Many to be determined, developed, or tested, risks
              evaluated.
• If the oil is not recoverable, we run out.
• If the oil is recoverable, we pay more… and we pollute more.
                 • Local:
  Pollution:         –   Smog,
                     –
Air / Thermal        –
                         Surface Ozone,
                         Inversions,
                     –   Heat Islands
                 • Regional:
                     – Smog,
                     – Acid Rain,
                     – Changes in rainfall patterns
                 • Global:
                     – Warming
                        • Greenhouse Gases
                     – Ozone Hole
                        • CFCs, etc.




                http://www.battelle.org/environment/images/air1.jpg
           Local Temperature: Heat Island Effect




• This localized effect is different from global warming. It is
  caused by energy use (air conditioning, cars, industries, etc.)
Source URL: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/perspective/images/health_fig2_e.jpg
            Regional Effect:
• Acid Rain
  – Reduces agricultural output
  – Harms species
  – Impacts ecosystems
    • Ex: Black Forest, Europe
    • Ex: Eastern US
        Enhanced Greenhouse Effect




•   http://www.environment.sa.gov.au/sustainability/images/greenhouse_effect.jpg
• http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/c
  limatechange/figure_4.jpg
               Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
• The greenhouse effect is natural. Gases absorb and re-radiate a lot of
  energy.
   – Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx, etc.
• The enhanced greenhouse effect is the additional human contribution to
  those greenhouse gases.
• The enhanced greenhouse effect is caused in large part by fossil fuel use,
  including manufacturing, transportation, and shipping.
• There are other contributions:
   – Cow flatulence,
   – Rice patties
         Why add the word enhanced?
• You are more correct.
• You sound more intelligent.
• You indicate more of the big picture. (!!!)
   – The greenhouse effect exists without us.
   – Humans enhance it (by burning fossil fuels, etc.)
   – Without the greenhouse effect, the world would be a cold
     place to live.
   – With the enhanced greenhouse effect, the world will be a
     hotter place to live than it has been.
      Global Warming: Notable




• Abnormal
             •http://www.grinningplanet.com/2004/01-27/global-warming-1000-v2.gif
  Causes: Identifiable
Ex: Consistent Annual CO2 rise




                 http://www.uigi.com/mauna_loa_co2.G
                     IF
      Problem:
     Estimable:

       Gases 
    energy storage
        in the
     atmosphere.




•   http://www.research.noaa.gov/clim
    ate/images/observing3.gif
                   Present Effects: Predictable




• We can model aspects of global warming..
• Models are incomplete, (always will be), but sufficient for prediction.
                    http://www.ucar.edu/research/climate/images/pcmensembles.jpg
                               Sea Level Rise




Seas: response lags as the oceans absorb temperature and slowly expand. Land glacial melt combines with this.
http://membrane.com/sidd/topexjason2004.jpg
                  Effects are notable.
           Rate of future change is uncertain.
• Glacial retreat (mountain and continental)
• Sea level rise
   – Land loss, population displacement
• More extreme events
   – Stronger storms
• Hotter summers
   – More heat wave related deaths are expected.
• More droughts
   – Poorer crop production is likely.
• Stronger winter cold weather events (!)
   – Heat engine: more heat  more circulation.
 Consequences are
expected, but when?
• Sea level rise:
   Southeast US: + 8 m.
• Greenland Ice Cap = 7 m.
     – Note: Miami, New
       Orleans, US East Coast
       cities
                                               http://www.benfieldhrc.org/climate_change/sea_level_rise/UK7m.rise.jpg




•http://www.fao.org/sd/SDimages/EIre0045.GIF             http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/fig5.gif
              Now for the bad news…

• Long-term consequences of this initial change are
  difficult to calculate.
• There are positive and negative feedbacks that complicate
  the long-term results, including:
   – Economics
   – Population Growth
   – Energy Efficiency
   – Energy Sources,
   – New Technologies
      • Technology adoption
                   Why is it taking so long?
•   Greenhouse gases take time to be absorbed.
•   Greenhouse gas production is going up, not down.
•   New habits and technologies (translation, you) are needed.
•   Any new states and transitions will take time to complete.
    Example: oceans.
     – Sea level rise is a function of amount of water and its
       temperature.
     – The oceans heat up slowly over time, matching the surface
       temperature regime over centuries. The effect is cumulative,
       but glacially slow.
   Alternative Energy Source Options:
• Solar
   – Needs dependable sunlight.
• Wind
   – Needs dependable high winds.
• Bio-fuel
   – Takes much farmland from food production.
   – Low total yields.
• Fission (?) Fusion (???)
   – Still in search of solutions: radiation, efficiency
• Hydrogen (??) This is a storage medium, e.g. hydrogen cells
   – Need an energy source for splitting water. (N/A)
      • This is actually like a battery. It stores energy.
            Option: Solar

     • Needs reliable sunlight
        – Southwest
     • More flexible than wind
        – Can place on objects
           • Rooftops, etc.
     • Often related do demand
        – Hot sunny days  want A/C
     • Not good everywhere
        – Bad in the North in Winter
           • New England.
           • Midwest


http://www.solartude.net/solar_farm_1.jpg
http://www.greenprophet.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/brightsource2_620px111-499x394.jpg
                                Option: Wind
                                                      • Strong winds
                                                      • Reliable winds
                                                      • Few people
                                                         – Not popular
                                                         – NIMBY
                                                            • Noisy
                                                            • Kills birds
                                                            • Visual
                                                              intrusion




http://www.tva.gov/news/files/buffmtn/turbines3.jpg
                                                                 Option:
                                                                 Hydro-
                                                                 power
                                                            Needs
                                                            •water,
                                                            •reservoir
                                                            •(head)

                                                            Environmental
                                                            concerns, siltation




•   http://www.arizona-leisure.com/gfx/hoover-dam-photo-3.gif
                          (Another Estimate)




                                                       http://ww
                                                       w.uwsp.
                                                       edu/busi
                                                       ness/ec
                                                       onomics
                                                       wisconsi
                                                       n/e_lect
                                                       ure/pop_
                                                       images/
                                                       pop_gro
                                                       wth.jpg




• World Population Change: Boom or Bust?
  – http://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lectur
    e/pop_sum.htm
       LULU: Locally Undesirable Land Use
• Everyone wants some
  products.
• No-one wants waste products,
  etc.
• Many want new ‘stuff’
• Few want the old junk.
• We make them and dump
  them someplace. Where?
• Not in my back yard!
  (NIMBY)
• So… Whose back yard?


                                 http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/STORIES/DNPP.02Lo.jpg
                                 http://www.pools-hottubs.com/Dump%201.JPG
  1/3 of Nuclear Power production is in the U.S.




• (Where is this?)   http://www-csgc.ucsd.edu/STORIES/DNPP.02Lo.jpg
                  Nuclear Power Concerns:
                                                               Accidents
                                                                  – Chernobyl
                                                               • Terrorism
                                                               • Bomb Material
                                                                  – Theft or sale
                                                               • LULU
                                                               • Thermal Pollution
                                                               • Radiation
                                                                  – I understand that radiation
                                                                    from coal plants is
                                                                    comparable.



http://www.bb-elec.com/images/nuclear-power-plant-closer.jpg
                 HDI and Consumption:




• Compare US, Japan, Brazil
• Source URL: http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/1998/Figure_9.gif
• Source info: http://www.lib.utah.edu/gould/1998/lecture98.html
                  Combating Pollution
• Recycle reusable resources.
   – Change discarded items from waste products to resources.
• Reduce consumption.
   – Reduce waste produced in manufacture and distribution.
• Reuse components.
   – Includes re-purposing.
• Research less polluting methods
   – Includes changing products, and changing methods.
• Replace present polluting methods with better methods.
   – We already have some alternative methods that work. (Prev. slides.)
Questions?

Comments?
           Combating Pollution (repeat)
•   Recycle reusable resources.
•   Reduce consumption.
•   Reuse components until they die.
•   Research less polluting methods
•   Replace present polluting methods with better methods.

                  Have a Merry Christmas!
               (Happy Consumption Festival!)

                 (or) have a happy vacation!
                      (Consume wisely.)

								
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